WORLD AT WAR: 4.22.17 - Imminent War?

Imminent War? - By Jim Towers - http://www.raptureready.com/2017/04/14/imminent-war/

 

Christians know that Daniel prophesied that war was going to happen in the Last Days. Jesus also said that there would be wars and rumors of war. To the skeptic I would say these prophecies coupled with many other prophesied events happening everywhere and increasing in intensity is convincing enough for me.

 

Today, our president called out president Assad of Syria, for using chemical weaponry on his own people, including children. Russia and Iran (Gog and Magog?) who are friends of Assad are angered. North Korea continues building ballistic missiles and testing them. We've sent warships to North Korea and negotiated with China to keep Kim Jong Un from inciting war through nuclear arms production. War ships are on the way there and China is threatening to bomb their nuclear bunkers as well. War and rumors of war abound.

 

The U.S. Embassy may be moving to Jerusalem. Isis, with help from Iran, is advancing on Israel, while some in Israel are intent on building the third and final temple. They have trained all the temple priests, made the sacrificial implements and are breeding the red heifers for sacrifice. All systems are go.

 

All around the world people are using their smart phones to videotape strange sightings and sounds in the skies. Witches and would be witches are springing up everywhere, some trying to put a hex/curse on our president. Homosexuals and transvestites rule the day, with other weirdoes backing them up. Black lives matter - cops lives don't.

 

Isis is terrifying the world and seems to be unstoppable. Outside the church walls unbelievers are going mad, becoming paranoid and committing suicide because of fear of what's coming upon the world.

 

I recently had to deal with a new Facebook "friend" who is showing signs of paranoia. Her post began with the big block words, "PEOPLE ARE EVIL."  I didn't know what she was referring to with that extreme statement. So I wrote back, "Yes Peggy, we are all sinners, but 'There is none righteous, no not one, for all have sinned and come short of the glory of God....But God has laid upon Him (Jesus) the iniquity of us all.'"

 

She responded with incoherent blather, finishing with, "Who are you to judge, Mr. Towers?!" Needless to say, I was astonished and I wrote back saying, "I was only agreeing with you, Peggy."  Instantly she wrote back. "Well I'm staying inside and locking the door!"  My final comment was, "I'll be praying for you, Peggy." Her words were words indicative of paranoia.

 

Pedophilia is on the rise. Is Pizzagate real or just some tall tale? Anthony Weiner's laptop may reveal more than we want to know. He will soon have to appear in court, and chances are he will spill the beans on many others high up in government. That is if he isn't assassinated first. The Democrats are suffering many casualties as the new administration continues to probe evidence of extreme misbehavior.

 

Divorce is prevailing even in Christian circles and is on par with the rest of the country's divorce rate. All the while, well respected church leaders are falling because of adulterous affairs. Televangelists with the prosperity gospel continue to rob millions from their gullible followers.

 

In the meantime, the falling away from the Church is happening, especially in England, Canada and the U.S.A. Mosques are popping up where churches once stood. Sharia law is being propagated in various parts of our country. Muslims are taking over everywhere they set foot. If your church feels sorry for these devil worshipers then please let them send missionaries to their home countries to convert them.

 

The Muslims who are already here have no intention of assimilating into our Judeo-Christian culture and many of their leaders are demanding Sharia law in places like Dearborn Michigan while Lansing, my hometown continues to be a sanctuary city. Muslims are also making demands in Minnesota. Public schools in some places are teaching our young students how to worship Allah in class. In New York City the body of the first female Muslim judge was found floating in the Hudson River today. This may spark retaliation on the part of fellow Muslims. How will we respond?

 

Persecution of Christians in other lands continues rising, with Christian men, women and children being slaughtered wholesale; this while we here in the United States live a life of plenty without a care in the world. We need to wake up and smell the coffee. But from the look of things we may live to see these atrocities reach our shores; and it may already be here waiting to strike. It is said that there are over forty radical Islamic compounds in the United States and more on our north and south ready to pounce on us when the time is right.

 

As big and strong as our country is it appears to be crumbling from within; there are various reasons for this happening. First is the apostasy taking place within in various Christian denominations, and then come the apathy and/or complete spiritual blindness of many others. We have built our houses on sinking sand. We only desire the acquisition of money and things it will buy.

 

Some may be anticipating the persecution of the Christian church and are getting out of dodge while they still can. But these are the ones who only came to play church and never took these spiritual things seriously anyway. On another front some church leaders are saying that everyone goes to heaven. But Jesus said, "I am the way the truth and the life, no man comes to the Father but by me." No shades of grey in those spoken words by the King of kings-Jesus.

 

As for demons and demon possession; is there really demon possession out there? Are demons real or just a figment of our imagination? Is the paranoia many are experiencing drugs, or the extreme fear of what we are facing today, or due to demonic influence? Jesus used to cast out demons, which are proof enough for me that they exist and there is evidence of it everywhere you look. Today, the Catholic Church is in need of exorcists. Would you care to volunteer?

 

Seeing all these things happening we would have to be blind, deaf and dumb not to think that these are the last of the last days.

 

The one thing that hasn't come to pass yet are the plagues and pestilences that are sure to come in the very near future if prophecy is to be fulfilled fully. However, Aids, Zika and sexually transmitted deceases are rampant around the world already with 42 percent of Americans infected with the papillomavirus. Perhaps a deadly contagion is getting ready to make it's appearance as promiscuity and infidelity get out of hand.

 

Now about movies; the documentary The Devils Miners was made several years ago with the intent of show the suffering of fatherless Bolivian boys, who beginning at the age of ten, work         in the silver mines. While doing so they chew cocoa leaves throughout the workday for strength and stamina. They are taught to worship the devil upon entering the mines and make offerings to him. While in town others worship Christ!

 

Walt Disney must be rolling over in his grave with the new gay-friendly animated fairy tale, Princes, featuring gays kissing and who knows what else. And this was made for children?

 

The movie The Stoning of Sorayam M. can be rented from your local library and is based on a true story that took place in the Muslim country of Iran. How the filmmakers were able to accomplish this is beyond me, since everything in it appears to be authentic and very well staged. The stoning was an actual event where the young woman was stoned because of trumped up charges by her husband who wanted to marry a younger woman for the dowry he would receive upon marrying her.

 

Even Sorayam's father and two sons participated in the stoning! I know this is not news to some of us, but it happens on a nearly daily basis around the world. What an evil "religion." And to think that many liberal women want to see Sharia law in this country! They must be suicidal or nuts-maybe both.

 

I went to see the movie The Case for Christ. There were at most, forty people in the audience. What does that say about effectiveness of such "Christian movies?" For me it was a good testimony, but it was as if a preacher were preaching to the choir.

YBIC

 

Jim Towers

 

Syria Moves Its Remaining Warplanes Near Russian Base - By Adam Eliyahu Berkowitz - https://www.breakingisraelnews.com/86838/fear-future-us-action-syria-moves-planes-next-russians/#KrlIVZud3OiToHxS.97

 

"Blessed be Hashem my Rock, who traineth my hands for war, and my fingers for battle." Psalms 144:1 (The Israel Bible�)

 

In the wake of a US missile strike that seriously crippled its air-force,Syria is moving its remaining planes to an airfield adjacent to a Russian airbase. Despite rising tensions with Russia, the US remains committed to preventing further chemical attacks by the Syrian government.

 

Two defense officials told CNN the Syrian military began moving its aircraft to the air base at Bassel Al-Assad International Airport shortly after the US missile strike on the Sharat air base on April 6. The airport adjacent to the Khmeimim Air Base, formerly a Syrian airbase but currently most of Russia's air assets are located there. The Russian base is protected by advanced anti-aircraft systems which would presumably offer protection to the nearby Syrian airbase, making the US reluctant to initiate another strike.

 

The US used 59 Tomahawk missiles to destroy 24 warplanes in the attack, which is estimated to be 20 percent of Syria's fixed wing aircraft.

 

"The Syrian Air Force is not in good shape. It's been worn down by years of combat plus some ... significant maintenance problems," Secretary of Defense General James Mattis told reporters at the Pentagon on Wednesday.

 

The US missile-strike came in response to a sarin nerve gas attack Syrian President Bashar al-Assad launched from Sharat air base, killing approximately 70 civilians. Though Russian personnel were on the Syrian base, the US warned Russia before the attack. 14 Syrians were killed in the US missile attack but no Russian casualties were reported.

 

The attack created tensions between the US and Russia, which supports the regime of Assad. Assad has been fighting a civil war for six years which has killed over 300,000 Syrians. Assad denied using chemical weapons, and Russia condemned the US missile strike. Despite Assad's claims, the director general for the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, Ambassador Ahmet �z�mc�, said Wednesday that analysis of samples from victims of the Khan Sheikhoun attack showed "incontrovertible" results that "sarin or a sarin-like substance" was used in the attack.

 

Syria was required to turn over all of its chemical weapons in 2014 following an agreement brokered by former President Barack Obama. Despite assertions by Obama and his Secretary of State, John Kerry, that Syria had relinquished "100 percent" of its chemical weapons, experts now claim that tons of dangerous weapons remain in secretly stockpiles.

 

President Trump was reluctant to become involved in the Syrian conflict, but now threatens continued action if Assad continues to use chemical weapons. General Mattis affirmed this at the press conference.

 

"The Syrian regime should think long and hard before it again acts so recklessly in violation of international law against the use of chemical weapons," Mattis said, later adding that "if they use chemical weapons, they are going to pay a very, very stiff price."

 

 

 

 

US Tomahawk cruise missiles for ISIS-Sinai HQ - http://www.debka.com/article/26014/US-Tomahawk-cruise-missiles-for-ISIS-Sinai-HQ

 

The US Mediterranean fleet is moving into position ready for a decision to launch Tomahawk cruise missiles for a crushing assault on the Islamic State's mountain strongholds in central Sinai, debkafile's military and counterterrorism sources report.

 

This would be the second American strike in a month against a Middle East target, after 59 cruise missiles destroyed one-fifth of the Syrian air force at the Shayrat air base on April 7 in response for Assad's chemical attack on Syrian civilians.

 

The prospective American missile attack in Sinai would raise the war on ISIS in the Middle East to a new plane. It would have been discussed during the Egyptian President Abdul-Fatteh El-Sisi's visit to the White House on April 3. He explained to his host, President Donald Trump, the immense difficulty of overcoming the Islamic State's affiliate when its headquarters were dug into an interconnected web of tunnels and caves in the central Jabal (Mount) Halal of the peninsula. Nicknamed the "Tora Bora of Sinai," approach roads to this mountain fastness are few and far between, in common with the Afghan cave network near the Pakistan border destroyed on April 13 by the biggest non-nuclear bomb, the GBU-43/B, in the American arsenal.

 

The last Egyptian assault on ISIS' towering mountain stronghold took place on April 2, shortly before El-Sisi travelled to Washington. The Egyptian military announced that 31 terrorists had been killed and a number of caves holding arms and ammunition destroyed.

 

But the damage was not devastating enough to disrupt the Islamist terrorists' operations, debkafile's military sources report. Most of the terrorists escaped with the help of allied Bedouin tribesmen who, familiar with every nook and cranny in the desert peninsula, guided them to safety in new caves in Jabal Halal that were even more inaccessible to Egyptian troops.

 

Their new headquarters can only be destroyed by cruise missiles capable of exploding underground.

 

The Egyptians and Americans believe that if the Jabal Halal cave system sheltering the ISIS-Sinai core command center is destroyed, its long campaign of terror will be curtailed. The flow of terrorist manpower, arms and explosives from the mountain to the networks which terrorize the population and Egyptian forces of northern Sinai will dry up.

 

Jabal Halal is also the hub of the ISIS smuggling networks, through which fighters and arms are moved from southern Libya into Sinai and Egypt. Knocking it out will also deliver a resounding blow to that traffic.

 

A final decision to go ahead with a US missile assault on central Sinai rests with Defense Secretary James Mattis. He is due to arrive in Cairo on Wednesday, April 19.

 

 

Iran is trying to provoke a Russia-US hot war in Syria - Mark Langfan - http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/20391

 

In Syria, an ancient game is being played - with people, countries and strategic goals as pawns.

 

When you boil Syria down to its principal players, there are only three: Russia, the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran.  With Assad's chemical attack, people have been misdirected from the reality by blaming the powerless Assad.  But Assad doesn't mvoe without direct Iranian permission.  So, the real question is why did Iran launch a chemical weapons attack? 

 

The answer is simple: Iran desperately needs Russia and the United States to get into a hot war in Syria so as to enable Iran to pick up the shattered pieces.  In contrast, the United States and Russia desperately need each other to defeat Iran's waxing neo-Safavidic Empire from stretching from Iran to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea.

 

In order to see why Iran is attempting to foment a Russia/US battle, one has to boil the Syrian theater into the child's hand-against-hand game of ROCK/PAPER/SCISSORS-shoot.  When one child flashes PAPER against the other child's ROCK, the "paper" envelops and beats the rock. When one child flashes PAPER against the other child's SCISSORS, the scissors cuts and beats the paper.  When one child flashes SCISSORS against the other child's ROCK the rock smashes and beats the scissors.

 

Russia is the "rock," Iran is the "paper," and the United States is the "scissors." 

 

Iran's strategy is to envelope Syria like a piece of paper, topologically combining Iran's Iraqi "paper," along with Iran's Hezbollah/Lebanon "paper" to form a patchwork-quilt Shiite Empire spanning from Iran/Persia through Iraq, and Syria, and Lebanon into the Mediterranean Sea. As an example of this, Iran just announced it was to build a trans-Iran/Iraq/Syria/Lebanon railroad.  Russia is the "rock" trying to bash the Sunni opposition to pieces in order to carve-out its eastern Mediterranean naval outpost and military enclave.  The United States, through Sec of Def Mattis, under the strategic cover of defeating ISIS in Eastern Syria is the "scissors" against Iran's "paper" Shiite Empire.  The United States with its indigenous allies is trying to efficiently occupy eastern Syria from the Kurds in the north to Jordan in the south.  By topologically "cutting" off Iran's patchwork piece of paper, Iraq, from Iran's patchwork piece of paper, Syria, the United States is attempting to defeat Iran's waxing paper Shiite Imanate.

 

Before Iran's chemical attack in the name of Assad, the western Syrian rock strategy of Russia, and the eastern scissors strategy of the United States were avoiding each other, complementing each other, and together quietly weakening the whole Syrian paper envelopment strategy of Iran.  This was great for Russia and the US, but bad for Iran.  Iran saw the United States' cutting its patchwork-quilt in two in eastern Syria as an existential threat to the grand strategic arc of its contiguous Mesopotamian/Levantian/Mediterranean swatch of Empire.  Therefore, Iran had to do something to instigate a hot war between the United States and Russia.  And presto, Iran bombs civilians with Sarin using Assad's planes, Assad takes the fall, and Russia and the United States are escalating against each other.

 

Russia and the United States urgently need each other to thwart Iran's scheme to control the Middle East.  It is in both Russia's and United States' worst strategic interests to allow Iran to become the colossus of the Middle East.  Syria is big enough for Russia and the United States to find a modus vivendi and  live with each other, allowing each to achieve strategic goals.  Russia and the United States have a mutually exact goal i- both aim to defeat the ISIS Sunni Caliphate and the Iranian Shiite Imanate. To defeat both Islamic radical terror threats requires Russia and the United States to work together, and not fight each other.  In the current war against both Sunni and Shiite radical Islamic terror, the United States and Russia are critically necessary for one another as allies, not inimical enemies.

 

 

Will Nuclear Deterrent Keep North Korea EMP Threat at Bay? - Bob Unruh - http://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=1167

 

WND has been reporting on the threat to America from EMP, the electromagnetic pulse from a nuclear explosion high in the sky, since early in the 2000s when former CIA chief James Wooley, former Defense Department staffer F. Michael Maloof and former Congressional EMP Commission member Dr. Peter Vincent Pry were sounding the alarm.

 

It was only weeks later that North Korea as a possible aggressor was brought into the conversation.

 

Nothing has gotten better since then, according to Pry, who agreed to an interview with WND on Friday, and in fact, it's worse.

 

In fact, the saber-rattling from North Korea dictator Kim Jong Un in recent days and weeks, the threats to destroy America, the warnings about "nuclear thunderbolts," and more, should be taken very seriously, he suggested.

 

It's not just that North Korea may have missiles that could reach the United States, and may have a nuclear warhead that could be fitted on the rockets, it could have already put in place the potential for a nuclear blast and EMP attack when it wants.

 

It's because, Pry explained, North Korea first launched one satellite, then a second, in oddly circuitous orbits that have them approach from the south of America, where there are no early warning systems, there are no interceptor missiles, or any defense.

 

And the satellites, in fact, could actually contain a nuclear weapon ready to detonate.

 

Pry, who is executive director of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security, and director of the U.S. Nuclear Strategy Forum, and served on the Congressional EMP Commission, as well as the Congressional Strategic Posture Commission and more, says the alarm truly is serious.

 

"All of us," he said, referring to a team of experts in the field, "have written we think that the threat, the possibility of a super-EMP warhead is so great, the United States should take them [North Korea's satellites] down," he told WND.

 

"We ought not tolerate them orbiting," he said, because nobody knows for sure what's on the satellites, which are in that suspicious orbit which was identified years earlier as a possible route should the Soviet Union ever decide to mount an assault on the U.S., the south polar trajectory.

 

The problem is that a significant EMP attack properly carried out in the skies over the United States could take down the nation's electronic infrastructure.

 

Electronic systems. All of them. Computers, networks, communications, systems that provide fuel and electricity. Systems that provide fuel and food, banking, medical systems, everything.

 

The estimates range widely but there easily could be multiple tens of millions of fatalities across the U.S. following such an attack, because food wouldn't be available, as all the electronics allowing the shipping systems to operate all would be gone.

 

Pry said it would be, literally, a new stone age.

 

"The dark ages can come back... literally.... It's that stark: A cliff waiting for us to fall over," he said.

 

The EMP threat, he said, is the one way where a rogue nation like North Korea could inflict horrible damage on the U.S., possibly even neutralize it. After all, if the electronic controls were gone, would it even be possible for the nation to respond to an attack militarily?

 

The U.S., he said, would be "blind and defenseless."

 

He said the suspicions about why the satellites were put into an orbit that approaches the U.S. from a concealed direction, and fly directly overhead, are great.

 

"What does North Korea want to do, helps us with our problem with climate change?" he wondered. "It's so implausible.

 

Unless they are practicing for an attack.

 

The concept of a nuclear deterrent, the idea that an enemy would respond with nukes, is what kept the world away from nuclear conflict all during the Cold War and since. But Pry, who described North Korea's dictator as "Caligula with nuclear weapons," said that might not impact a decision from the closed kingdom.

 

Many people also consider that North Korea isn't capable of the technology required for such an attack, he said. But consider that North Korea, at times, has been close to both China and Russia, both of which are considered capable of most of the same technology that the U.S. uses.

 

North Korea has threatened another nuclear test as early as this weekend even as the politics seem to be turning against the regime.

 

WND reported Friday Kim Jong Un - described only last week by Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., as the "crazy fat kid" - now is threatening a "big event" and "nuclear thunderbolts."

 

The close ally of China has become bolder in its rhetoric in recent years as Barack Obama's foreign policy has left American enemies wondering about Washington's willingness to defend itself.

 

North Korea has done several tests of nuclear devices in defiance of international bans and has issued multiple threats to kill Americans and destroy the U.S.

 

However, under President Trump, the U.S. has been clear about its intent to destroy ISIS, as was this week with the delivery of a gigantic, nearly 11-ton bomb on ISIS fortifications in Afghanistan.

 

Trump also has been pressuring China for fairer trade policies and to crack down on Pyongyang.

 

Something must have worked, as the North Korean news agency on Friday blasted its "long-standing ally China" and implied Beijing was "'cooperating' with Washington for the collapse of North Korea."

 

The agency also reported Pyongyang's threats to deliver "nuclear thunderbolts."

 

North Korea's newest saber-rattling comes after there was word from unidentified U.S. intelligence officials, via NBC, that the U.S. is ready to launch a pre-emptive strike against North Korea - with conventional weapons - if it appears North Korea is going forward with more nuclear testing.

 

Kim Jong Un has said a "big event" is coming, and U.S. officials revealed the the U.S. has dispatched two destroyers to an area just 300 miles from North Korea's nuclear test site.

 

The U.S. also has bombers stationed in Guam, and the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier strike group is moving into the region.

 

Only two months ago Maloof reported Pyongyang had been able to launch two satellites, even though nobody knows what they are doing.

 

At that time Jim Oberg, who is one of the few American scientists to visit North Korea's Sohae space launch site in the northwest corner of the country, expressed similar concerns about the content of North Korean satellites.

 

Oberg is a retired space shuttle Mission Control specialist with NASA and worked for U.S. Space Command.

 

"There have been fears expressed that North Korea might use a satellite to carry a small nuclear warhead into orbit and then detonate it over the United States for an EMP strike," Oberg said in a Space Review article. "These concerns seem extreme and require an astronomical scale of irrationality on the part of the regime.

 

"The most frightening aspect, I've come to realize," he said, "is that exactly such a scale of insanity is now evident in the rest of this 'space program.'"

 

In making his visit to the Sohae site in 2012, Oberg said the North Koreans tried to assure him that the satellite launches were for peaceful purposes. However, he was not convinced.

 

"The charade that Pyongyang's satellite program was purely for peaceful space exploration and applications was pitifully transparent from the start," Oberg said. "The real mystery was what was the true unseen purpose of the enormous expense that the government was pouring into the program."

 

In 2014, WND reported that a "long-suppressed report" from the Department of Homeland Security concluded North Korea could, in fact, deliver on its threats to reach the U.S. with an EMP attack.

 

In the suppressed study, DHS said that if North Korea attempted to deploy the Unha-3 space launch vehicle or the Taepodong-2 intercontinental ballistic missile, the Defense Department should destroy the missile on its pad before launch.

 

At the time, however, President Obama and the White House "repeatedly asserted that North Korea did not yet have the capacity to attack the United States or U.S. allies with nuclear missiles."

 

A report from just last year said North Korea's satellites are fully capable of performing a surprise EMP attack at an altitude and trajectory that evade U.S. National Missile Defenses.

 

 

What is Hezbollah planning for the Third Lebanon War? - ByYaakov Katz - http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Editors-Notes-The-looming-third-Lebanon-War-488526

 

As Syria continues to disintegrate, the chances increase that a new conflict with Hezbollah will erupt.

 

In Military Intelligence they call it "Fire-by-Six," a reference to the dramatic transformation of Hezbollah's rocket and missile arsenal in the 10 years that have passed since the Second Lebanon War.

 

The first change is in quantity. In 2006, Hezbollah had approximately 15,000 rockets, of which it fired about 4,300 rockets during the 34 days of fighting, an average of 130 a day.

 

Today, the Iranian-backed group is believed to have around 130,000 rockets and missiles, and is expected to be able to fire approximately 1,000 a day in a future war.

 

The next five changes are in quality. Hezbollah's missiles today have, for example, a longer range. In 2006, the group could strike Haifa and north. Today it can strike almost anywhere it wants within Israel. The missiles also have larger warheads, greater accuracy, and the ability to launch from deeper inside enemy territory, and not just from southern Lebanon as in 2006. In some cases, it can even fire the missiles from within fortified and underground silos.

 

One example is the M-600. Made in Syria, the M-600 is a clone of an Iranian missile called the Fateh-110, with a range of about of 300 km. and a 500-kg warhead. It is also equipped with a sophisticated navigation system, meaning that Hezbollah can strike any target it wants to.

 

Israel believes that Hezbollah has several hundred M-600s stored in underground silos and homes throughout central and southern Lebanon. The terrorist group is also believed to have a handful of Scud missiles, including the advanced Scud D it received from Syria which has a range of 700 km.

 

This puts the Knesset in Jerusalem, the nuclear reactor in Dimona, and the power plant in Ashkelon all within Hezbollah's range.

 

Hezbollah has also improved its capabilities on the ground - it has around 5,000 guerrillas currently fighting in Syria, and while some 2,500 have been killed and another 6,000 or so have been wounded, the organization has gained real battlefield experience, meaning that it will be an even more difficult adversary in a future ground war.

 

The prevailing assessment in the IDF is that Hezbollah will fire its long-range missiles early on in the next war, the result of two motivating factors: first, the group will want to inflict great damage and devastation on Israel as quickly as possible. Second, it remembers the first night of the Second Lebanon War in 2006, when the IDF destroyed most of its long-range missile stockpiles in a preemptive air campaign. Next time, it will want to use the missiles before they can be destroyed by Israel.

 

This expected devastation is something Israel has never experienced, and the likely high number of casualties will shock the nation. While Israel has made impressive leaps in its development of missile defense systems in recent years with the deployment of Iron Dome and more recently David's Sling, these systems will be busy protecting strategic installations such as military bases, airports and power plants, and will not be able to intercept every missile launched into an Israeli town or city.

 

That means if Israel wants to minimize the extent of the missile onslaught, it will need to be far more aggressive than it has ever been in the past.

 

One possibility would be targeting the Lebanese national infrastructure. This idea was raised in 2006, but was nixed when the government decided to distinguish between Hezbollah and the Lebanese government, based on an understanding then that Hezbollah was a small organization primarily focused on operations in southern Lebanon. In addition, the Bush administration was working hard to bolster Fouad Siniora, then Lebanon's prime minister, and would not have been happy with massive Israeli bombardments throughout the country.

 

What this meant in practice is that while the IAF bombed a runway at the Beirut International Airport as well as a few bridges throughout southern Lebanon, it held back from striking power plants, water facilities and military bases. The runway and bridges were bombed to prevent Hezbollah from being able to move the two abducted IDF soldiers out of the country and from receiving new weapon shipments from Iran.

 

A lot has changed since 2006. Today, a growing number of officers in the IDF, including Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Gadi Eisenkot, as well as some members of the security cabinet, are openly pushing for a change to Israel's approach in the event of war. This is based on the understanding that Hezbollah today is not like it was in 2006, when it could be written off as a small scale guerrilla organization that happens to be located in Lebanon. Today, nothing happens in Lebanon without Hezbollah's approval. Its members are in the cabinet, and the organization effectively controls the country.

 

Lebanon's president, Michel Aoun, basically said as much in a recent interview he gave Egyptian media during his visit to Cairo two months ago. "Hezbollah is a significant part of the Lebanese people," Aoun said.

 

"Hezbollah's weapons do not contradict the national project... and are, rather, a principal element of Lebanon's defense."

 

That is why in a future war, Eisenkot and those ministers see no reason to distinguish between Lebanon and Hezbollah - they are one and the same, and as a result, so are the targets.

 

Questions remain, however, about the utility of such strikes. Those opposed to them argue that attacking the national infrastructure will turn Sunni forces in the region against Israel, which will need those forces to help stabilize Lebanon following a war. Those in favor of such strikes believe that they will deter Hezbollah from future attacks, and motivate other actors in the country to restrain the group.

 

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah also remembers what happened in 2006, and how the war ruined the Lebanese tourism industry and economy. As it is, Hezbollah is under criticism in Lebanon for siding with Bashar Assad and fighting on his behalf in Syria. A new war, even more devastating than the last, would not be easily forgiven by the Lebanese people, who could take to the streets in an Arab Spring-like protest to try to get rid of Hezbollah once and for all.

 

Whatever is decided about Lebanon's national infrastructure, Israel is unlikely to respond to Hezbollah aggression with a gradual escalation scale as it did in 2006 or in the various anti-Hamas operations it has fought in the Gaza Strip.

 

During those operations, the IDF traditionally started with a week or two of aerial operations, and only then - if that didn't work - sent in the troops. Due to the extent of Hezbollah's missile arsenal, Israel will need to hit the organization with everything it has from the beginning - on the ground, at sea, in the air and in online cyberwarfare as well.

 

Why is any of this relevant today? Because as Syria continues to disintegrate, the chances increase that a new conflict with Hezbollah will erupt.

 

Israel's attack against an arms depot in Syria in March demonstrates just how fragile the situation is. Imagine for a moment that one of the Israeli fighter jets had been shot down by the missile Syria launched in retaliation to the Israeli air incursion. Or that the missile had struck an Israeli town. How would Israel have responded, and how would Syria and Hezbollah have responded in return? This is a slippery slope that has the IDF and the security cabinet on edge, with some officials openly speaking about a preemptive war under which Israel would strike first to significantly degrade Hezbollah's capabilities before they could be used in a full-fledged conflict.

 

Now don't get me wrong. As strong as Hezbollah might be, Israel is significantly stronger and whatever damage Hezbollah can inflict on Israel, Israel can inflict far worse on Hezbollah. It is also important to keep in mind that for all its rockets and missiles, Hezbollah can not conquer and hold on to - for an extended period of time - a single village along the northern border. It can inflict damage and cause casualties, but it is nowhere near becoming an existential threat for the State of Israel.

 

Either way, in a volatile region like the Middle East, Israel needs to be prepared. The Third Lebanon War is looming on the horizon.

 

 

 

US envoy: Iran and Hezbollah want to destabilize the Mideast - By Edith M. Lederer - http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/us-envoy-iran-hezbollah-destabilize-mideast-46922415

 

U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley accused Iran and its ally Hezbollah on Thursday of conspiring to destabilize the Middle East - a charge "categorically" rejected by Iran's U.N. envoy as a misleading propaganda campaign perpetrated by Israel and others in the region.

 

Haley is the current Security Council president and she asked members to focus on the factors causing conflicts across the region during their monthly meeting on the situation in the Middle East instead of engaging in what she called routine "Israel bashing."

 

Her targets at the open meeting, where over 50 countries spoke, were Iran and Hezbollah who are supporting Syrian President Bashar Assad, training "deadly militias" in Iraq and arming Shiite Houthi rebels in Yemen.

 

"For decades, they have committed terrorist acts across the region," Haley said.

 

"Iran is using Hezbollah to advance its regional aspirations," she said. "They are working together to expand extremist ideologies in the Middle East. This is a threat that should be dominating our discussion at this Security Council."

 

Iranian Ambassador Gholamali Khoshroo minced no words when it was his turn to speak, accusing the U.S. and Israel of seeking "to remove the Palestinian issue that is central to all the conflicts in the Middle East from these open debates."

 

As for the U.S. accusations, he dismissed them as "unsubstantiated allegations ... designed and perpetrated hysterically by Israel and certain countries in the region including those who fully supported Saddam Hussein's aggression against Iran." Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations backed Saddam in the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war.

 

Only one of the 14 other Security Council members mentioned Iran while they all talked about the current worsening state of the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict as well as Syria.

 

Nickolay Mladenov, the U.N. special coordinator for the Middle East peace process, didn't mention Iran either - just Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Iraq, Yemen.

 

He stressed that a two-state solution in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict "remains a potent symbol and rallying cry that is easily misappropriated and exploited by extremist groups."

 

Haley thanked him "for going beyond the usual Israel bashing" and looking at the broader issues.

 

British Ambassador Matthew Rycroft, the only council member to mention Iran, also accused that nation of playing "a destabilizing role in the region," especially in Syria. He cited a U.N. report saying Iran supplies all the weapons and missiles to the Assad government.

 

But Rycroft also focused on this year's 50th anniversary of the Six Day War between the Arabs and Israel.

 

"This year either we move towards peace, with the strongest support of the region and the international community, or we face an uncertain and dangerous future," he warned. "Unless the parties show leadership, including the willingness to make tough compromises, the risk of terrorism and instability will increase. Israelis and Palestinians cannot afford another 50 years of that."

 

Russia's deputy U.N. ambassador, Petr Iliichev, said Moscow wanted "to express our categorical disagreement with the attempts to tailor this meeting to the domestic context and exclusively to American foreign policy focus."

 

He questioned why the U.S. in a "concept note" for the meeting remained silent on the Palestinian question and didn't mention threats from extremist groups like the Islamic State and the former Nusra Front "who cause suffering to civilians in Syria, Iraq and Libya."

 

"Indeed we're invited to consider as terrorists those who are fighting these groups," he said.

 

As for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, he called for coordinated efforts on a Middle East settlement and repeated Russia's offer to host a meeting in Moscow between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to start direct negotiations.

 

Haley, predictably, got strong backing from Israeli Ambassador Danny Danon.

 

"Where there is terror. Where there is death. Where there is complete disregard for human life, there is Iran," Danon told the council.

 

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates also sharply criticized Iran and Hezbollah.

 

Riyad Mansour, the Palestinian ambassador, thanked almost every speaker for keeping the Palestinian question at the center of the debate and speaking out strongly in support of a two-state solution.

 

 

What is the IDF trying to hide about the interception of the Syrian missile? - Yossi Melman - http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/What-is-the-IDF-trying-to-hide-about-the-interception-of-the-Syrian-missile-488264

 

On March 17 IAF jets were targeted by Syrian missiles in a rare incident that Israel responded to immediately. But what is the real story behind this incident?

 

In the wee morning hours of March 17, a Friday, a strange incident marred the skies over the area of the Jordan Valley in Israel. According to an official statement released by IDF Spokesman, the country's Air Defense Command intercepted a Syrian, Russia-manufactured anti-aircraft missile at 2:40 a.m.

 

It had later been clarified that an Arrow 2 missile was aimed at a Syrian missile that was fired in the direction of the West Bank and Israel north of Jerusalem, in the area of the Jordan Valley.

 

But it seems that the short and laconic announcement by the IDF doesn't really tell the full story. Or in other words- the IDF isn't revealing the whole truth about the incident. So what really happened that Friday morning?

 

On that night, several Israel Air Force jets had returned from a mission in Syria, where they operated like they have in the past (according to foreign reports) to stop weapons convoys -mostly advanced missiles - on their way to Shi'ite terror organization Hezbollah. When the jets were already en route back to Israel, they came under fire of Russian-manufactured surface to air missiles SAM-5 (Vega) that were launched from Syria.

 

One of the Syrian missiles' trajectory pointed south-south west. Theoretically, it could have landed in Israeli territory. But when such a missile misses its target (in this case, the IAF jets), it's supposed to activate a self-destructing mechanism that sends its parts flying to the ground.

 

Since it was not clear at the time where the missile was coming from and there was serious concern that it would land within the West Bank or in Israel, it appears that the Arrow missile defense system had fired one or two intercepting missiles in its direction (as is the common procedure during interceptions).

 

Prior to the launch, a red alert siren was heard in several villages in the Jordan Valley where the interception of the missile was expected to happen.

 

Several days following the incident, the commander of the Air Defense Command, Brigadier General Tzi Haimovitch, provided more details. According to him "the threat was ballistic, and in such a situation there is no room for question marks or dilemmas." Haimovitch explained that the decision to intercept the missile was made by the relevant commanders "within a split second."

Due to the rapid reaction that was required facing this threat, the commander of the IAF and the chief of staff were not made privy to this decision- but they later backed up and justified it.

 

Arrow 2 missiles are equipped with a warhead with shrapnel shells. The shrapnel is usually supposed to hit the front part of the ballistic missile the Arrow intercepts. This is aimed mainly against the major threat facing Israel - Shahab-3 and Scud-D missiles, which Iran, Syria and Hezbollah all have in their arsenal. The shrapnel fired at the missile is meant to eliminate the explosives and neutralize the threat.

 

However, the "warhead" of SAM-5, a 40-year-old, outdated missile, does not contain explosives. It contains "metals"- avionics equipment and a radar antenna. Its warhead is actually located in its back part, some 3.5-4 meters from the tip. Next to it is the self-destructing mechanism, and between the two and the front separates a steel divider.

 

In short, it is most likely that the Arrow's shrapnel hit the Syrian missile's warhead but not its explosives in the back. In other words- it is doubtful that an interception took place in the full sense of the word.

 

What may have happened is that a shock wave, which spreads when shrapnel shards hit the front part of the missile (with the same effect of a hand-grenade), could have possibly neutralized the self-destructing mechanism of the Syrian missile. Another possibility is that the self-destructing mechanism didn't work for a technical reason.

 

If that is indeed the case, it can be assumed that a part or parts of the SAM-5, which weighs seven tons in total, continued in its flight and landed in some spot in Israeli territory.

 

Just to make things even clearer: the warhead of the Syrian missile weighs 200 kg. There are both seeing and hearing witnesses from communities in the area who noted large explosions that were followed by a resounding booming noise and a visible flash.

 

The Arrow 2 is a two-stage missile with two engines. The first one is manufactured by the Israel Military Industries and the second by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems. When the first engine finishes its activity, it is ejected.

 

After the incident photos were published in Jordan showing a part of a missile's motor with inductors that came out of the engine. It fell to the ground in the area of Jordan's Irbid and was probably the first-stage engine of the Arrow. Therefore, there is a probability that an Arrow shard hit the Syrian missile, neutralized its self-destructing mechanism, but did not entirely destroy it. There's also a chance that the two Arrow missiles missed their target and that following a technical failure in the Syrian missile's self-destructing mechanism, the missile got to Israel.

 

The claim that some made in Israel that the parts that fell in Jordan were shards of the Syrian SAM has been ruled out by experts.

 

For the past two weeks the Jerusalem Post has been attempting to receive detailed answers from the IDF Spokesperson's Unit about the aforementioned information. Among some of the questions that were referred to the IDF it was asked whether parts or even small shards from the Syrian missile actually landed in Israeli territory, and whether published images that showed the metal part that landed in Jordan were actually part of the Arrow missile.

 

The spokesperson's unit declined to comment on the questions and was only willing to comment that the incident was still being investigated and that conclusions will be drawn accordingly.

 

This evasive reply raises even more questions. It implies perhaps that the IDF has something to hide and that the army is not interested in disclosing to the public the full details about this incident. It is also reminiscent of the security establishment's conduct seven years ago regarding the Iron Dome missile defense system.

 

It was claimed in the past that the Iron Dome would be capable of intercepting mortars or rockets within a short range, even a range of 5km, and still defend the communities along the border with Gaza. However, as the previous two military campaigns in Gaza have taught us, despite Iron Dome's impressive capabilities and the upgrades it has seen since, its ability to protect is challenged on an almost daily basis.