Trump's 'Calm before the Storm' Is A Message to North Korea And Iran - By Alan M. Dershowitz -
Reporters continue scratching their heads about what President Trump meant when he spoke of the "calm before the storm" Thursday as he was hosting a dinner for military commanders and their spouses.
It seems clear to me that he was sending a powerful message to North Korea and Iran: change your behavior now, or prepare to face new but unspecified painful consequences.
North Korea and Iran are taking the measure of President Trump to see how far they can push him and how much they can get away with. The North Koreans continue testing nuclear weapons and long-range missiles and threaten to launch a nuclear attack on America and our allies that could kills millions.
Iran is likely engaging in activities that could contribute to the design and development of its own nuclear explosive device.
If these worrisome actions by the two rogue nations persist, there will be a storm. And as candidate Trump said during his campaign for the White House, he will not tell our enemies what kind of storm to expect -- only that he will not allow current trends that endanger our national security and that of our allies to continue unabated.
The president must make some difficult decisions: whether to continue to rely on economic sanctions that don't appear to be working against North Korea; and whether to refuse to certify Iranian compliance with the bad nuclear deal and demand that additional constraints be placed on the Islamic Republic's dangerous and provocative activities.
President Trump faces an Oct. 15 deadline to decide whether to certify Iranian compliance with the nuclear agreement, which is designed to keep it from developing nuclear weapons for the next few years. News reports say he is expected to refuse to make that certification.
U.S. policy toward both Iran and North Korea is closely related, because we must prevent Iran from joining the nuclear club and becoming another, even more dangerous version of North Korea.
The sad reality is that even if Iran were to comply with the letter of the nuclear agreement, it will still be able to develop the capability to build up a vast nuclear arsenal within a relatively short time. This is the fundamental flaw of the agreement.
And Iran claims that the nuclear deal permits it to refuse to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect military facilities. This has led the IAEA to conclude that it cannot assure the world that Iran is not even now designing and developing a nuclear arsenal with missiles capable of delivering them to American allies in the Mideast and Europe, and soon the U.S. itself.
All the Iranians need to do to become a nuclear power is to resume spinning centrifuges. The nuclear agreement, which was reached with the Obama administration in 2015, will allow them to do that in a few years.
So whether we like it or not, a storm is coming. Whether that storm will be diplomatic, economic or military depends on the leaders of North Korea and Iran. If they choose to negotiate constraints on their increasingly dangerous activities, they can avoid the other more painful options.
Our military options are and should always be a last resort. They are the worst possible options -- other than Iran developing a nuclear arsenal and North Korea developing a nuclear delivery system that can reach our population centers and wipe out major American cities.
With fanatical dictators like those in control of North Korea and Iran, we cannot rely on containment and deterrence as acceptable policies to prevent them from using nuclear weapons, as we have done for years with the Soviet Union (and now Russia) and China.
So President Trump cannot afford to wait and do nothing as Iran and North Korea grow ever stronger, ever more menacing and become greater and greater threats. He must do something -- now. The nature of what is done, and what kind of storm it may be, is up to our enemies. I hope they choose wisely.
Washington Sources Say President Will Reject Iran Nuclear Deal Next Week - By Adam Eliyahu Berkowitz -
"As for those peoples that warred against Yerushalayim, Hashem will smite them with this plague: Their flesh shall rot away while they stand on their feet; their eyes shall rot away in their sockets; and their tongues shall rot away in their mouths." Zechariah 14:12 (The Israel Bible�)
Multiple sources in Washington D.C. have reported that President Donald Trump plans on decertifying the Iran nuclear deal next week.
On Wednesday, The Washington Free Beacon and The Washington Post reported that President Trump is expected to declare Iran in breach of the deal next week. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the deal that was brokered by former President Barack Obama with Iran first signed in 2015, has to be recertified by the president every ninety days and the next deadline is October 15. President Trump has recertified the deal twice since entering the Oval Office. If the Iran deal is decertified by the president, the decision is then moved to Congress which will have 60 days to decide the future of the deal, which might include reinstating sanctions that were removed under the agreement.
The president is scheduled to deliver a speech on October 12, but the White House has not confirmed that the speech will take place or what its subject matter will be. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the White House press secretary, said in a press conference on Thursday, "The president is going to make an announcement about the decision that he's made on a comprehensive strategy that his team supports, and we'll do that in the coming days."
Opponents of the nuclear deal have claimed that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the nuclear watchdog tasked with verifying Iranian compliance, have been prevented from doing their job.
"The IAEA's admission that they are unable to verify a fundamental provision under the nuclear deal-that the Iranians are not engaging in activities or using equipment to develop a nuclear explosive device-is highly alarming. In these circumstances, issuing a compliance certification would be a serious mistake," Texas Senator Ted Cruz said to the press.
"If the Iranians are serious about a peaceful program, they need to prove it. Iran's continued refusal to allow IAEA access to military sites-a clear requirement of the terms of the deal-renders the JCPOA utterly ineffective, and, even worse, a sham that only facilitates Iran's acquiring nuclear weapons. This absence of any meaningful verification is yet another reason to vitiate this foolhardy agreement."
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said last month that he will not reopen the deal for negotiations.
Mr. Trump: Withdraw from the Iran Nuclear Deal - by John Bolton - https://www.algemeiner.com/2017/10/10/mr-trump-withdraw-from-the-iran-nuclear-deal/
President Donald Trump will address US policy toward Iran on Thursday, doubtless focusing on his decision regarding Barack Obama's badly-flawed nuclear deal. Key officials are now briefing Congress, the press and foreign governments about the speech, cautioning that the final product is, in fact, not yet final. The preponderant media speculation is that Trump's senior advisers are positioning him to make a serious mistake, based on their flawed advice. Wishful thinking about Iran's mullahs, near-religious faith in the power of pieces of paper and a retreat from executive authority are hallmarks of the impending crash.
In short, Obama's Iran nuclear deal is poised to become the Trump-Obama deal. The media report that the president will not withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), but instead, under the misbegotten Corker-Cardin legislation, will "decertify" that it is in America's national interest. Congress may then reimpose sanctions, or try somehow to "fix" the deal. Curiously, most of the suggested "fixes" involve repairing Corker-Cardin rather than the JCPOA directly.
Sure, give Congress the lead on Iran. What could go wrong? Whatever the problem with Iran, Congress is not the answer. No president should surrender what the Constitution vests uniquely in him: dominant power to set America's foreign policy. In the iconic "Federalist Number 70" essay, Alexander Hamilton wrote insightfully that "decision, activity, secrecy and dispatch" characterize unitary executive power, and most certainly not the legislative branch. President Trump risks not only forfeiting his leading national security role, but paralysis, or worse, in the House and Senate.
If Congress really wants to "fix" Corker-Cardin, the best fix is total repeal. The substantive arguments for decertifying but not withdrawing are truly Jesuitical, teasing out imagined benefits from adhering to a deal Iran already treats with contempt. Some argue we should try provoking Iran to exit first, because our withdrawal would harm America's image. This is ludicrous. The United States must act in its own self-interest, not wait around hoping Iran does us a favor. It won't. Why should Tehran leave (or even modify) a deal advantageous beyond its wildest imagination?
This "shame" prediction was made against Washington's 2001 unilateral withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, and proved utterly false. America's decision to abrogate the hallowed "cornerstone of international strategic stability" produced nothing like the storm of opprobrium Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty adherents predicted. No nuclear arms race followed. Instead, withdrawal left the United States far better positioned to defend itself against exactly the threats Iran and others now pose.
Some say that trashing the deal will spur Iran to accelerate its nuclear weapons program to rush across the finish line. Of course, before the JCPOA, Iran was already party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which barred it from seeking or possessing nuclear weapons, but which it systematically violated. JCPOA advocates are therefore arguing that although one piece of paper (a multilateral treaty, no less) failed to stop Iran's nuclear quest, the JCPOA, a second piece of paper, will do the trick, with catastrophic consequences if we withdraw. Ironically, these same acolytes almost invariably concede the JCPOA is badly flawed and needs substantial amendment. So they actually believe a third piece of paper is required to halt Iran. Two are not enough. This argument flunks the smile test: Burying Iran in paper will not stop its nuclear program.
Iran's ability to "rush" to have nuclear weapons existed before the deal, exists now, and would exist if America withdrew. The director of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran said recently it would take a mere five days for Iran to resume its pre-deal level of uranium enrichment. This rare case of regime honesty demonstrates how trivial and easily reversible Iran's JCPOA concessions were. What alone deters an Iranian "rush" is the threat of preemptive US or Israeli military strikes, not pieces of paper.
Nor will US withdrawal eliminate valuable international verification procedures under the JCPOA. In fact, these measures are worse than useless for nonproliferation purposes, although they serve Iran well. By affording the appearance of effective verification, they camouflage Iran's active, multiple violations of United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231: on uranium enrichment levels, advanced centrifuge research, heavy water production and missile programs. The International Atomic Energy Agency recently admitted explicitly it has no visibility whatever into weapons and ballistic missile work underway on Iran's military bases.
It is simple common sense that Iran would not conduct easily discoverable weapons-related work at already-known nuclear sites like Natanz and Esfahan. Warhead design and the like are far more likely at military sites like Parchin where the IAEA has never had adequate access. No wonder the IAEA is now barred from Parchin.
It is not just weapons-related work the JCPOA fails to uncover. Substantial uranium enrichment production and research are also far more likely at undeclared sites inside Iran or elsewhere, like North Korea. This is the lesson Tehran learned after Israel destroyed the nuclear reactor under construction by North Koreans in Syria in 2007.
Nor will abrogating the deal somehow induce Iran to become more threatening in the Middle East or in supporting global terrorism than it already is with the JCPOA in force. Consider Tehran's belligerent behavior in the Persian Gulf, its nearly successful effort to create an arc of control from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon, threatening Israel, Jordan and the Arabian Peninsula, and its continued role as the world's central banker of international terrorism. The real issue is how much worse Iran's behavior will be once it gets deliverable nuclear weapons.
I have previously argued that only US withdrawal from the JCPOA can adequately protect America from the Iranian nuclear threat. Casuistry deployed to persuade President Trump to stay in the deal may succeed this Thursday, but it does so only at grave peril to our country. This is no time to let our guard down.
Supreme Court hands Trump travel ban victory - Bill Wilson - www.dailyjot.com
The Supreme Court Monday handed the Trump Administration a victory on its travel ban on people from several Muslim-majority countries (translated: terrorist-sponsoring) plus Argentina and North Korea. The cases against President Donald Trump's immigration and refugee ban were much publicized when the politically-charged, left-leaning 9th Circuit and 4th Circuit courts made a national spectacle out of the President's ability to establish and enforce immigration policy. In short, the left's assault on border security has been repelled by the Supreme Court. Notwithstanding, the news media, which is complicit in advocating open borders, refuses to give the decision the same news coverage as the assault.
Citing the expiration of a temporary order to restrain Trump from banning entry into the US of people from certain countries, the Supreme Court vacated the lower court's judgment against Trump. The Supreme Court said in a one paragraph Summary Disposition, "...the case is remanded to the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit with instructions to dismiss as moot the challenge to Executive Order No. 13,780." There is also a case pending in the Ninth Circuit, which will most likely meet a similar fate. While there are additional lawsuits against Trump's travel ban, the Supreme Court has essentially ended the fight, recognizing the President's authority to establish immigration policy.
Despite all the media uproar over Trump's travel ban from certain countries that presented a high risk for terrorists, and all the money and time wasted by leftists that sought to undermine America's border security, the law prevailed. The Immigration and Nationality Act of 1952 specifically states in Section 212: "Whenever the President finds that the entry of any aliens or of any class of aliens into the United States would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, he may by proclamation, and for such period as he shall deem necessary, suspend the entry of all aliens or any class of aliens as immigrants or nonimmigrants, or impose on the entry of aliens any restrictions he may deem to be appropriate."
The Supreme Court decision moved America back toward the legal principles of border security and treatment of immigrants. Recalling the harsh media reaction to Trump's Executive Orders on banning travel from high-risk terrorist countries, one could have concluded that the President was breaking the law when he was really abiding in it. This is an example of the deception that can be caused by the media pounding its position into our minds day in and day out. Colossians 2:8 says, "Beware lest any man spoil you through philosophy and vain deceit, after the tradition of men, after the rudiments of the world, and not after Christ." Seek the Word of God and you will stand on the foundation of truth.
Trump Keeps Iran Deal, Refuses to Certify Compliance to Congress - by Ian Mason -
President Donald Trump will not re-certify to Congress Iranian compliance with the landmark nuclear deal signed in 2015 under President Barack Obama, but will keep the agreement itself in place.
Congress will be urged to pass new "trigger points" to hold the Iranians to account and the Treasury Department will be directed to place additional sanctions on the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a wing of the Iranian military accused of terrorist acts in support of the Iranian regime throughout the region.
"The President has come to the conclusion that he cannot certify ... that the sanctions relief we provided [Iran] is proportionate to the benefit we are seeing," Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said on a Thursday evening press conference call where he and National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster laid out the broad strokes of what a White House fact sheet referred to as "President Donald J. Trump's New Strategy on Iran."
The plan, according to McMaster, was the product of "months of an inter-agency process."
The administration will not certify to Congress Iran's compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), better known as the Iran nuclear deal, or that the sanctions relief given under the deal is providing proportionate benefits to the United States.
It is required to do so every 90 days under a law called the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA), passed nearly unanimously by Congress in the furor that surrounded President Obama reaching the agreement with the Iranians largely without consulting the Republican-controlled Senate. Although there has been no showing that the Iranian government has violated the terms of the JCPOA, Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Hailey said last month that the president "has grounds to stand on" in refusing to certify compliance should he choose to do so.
Reporting Wednesday indicated the administration has suffered serious internal tension over whether to certify under INARA since July, when the pro-certification elements of President Trump's national security team won out before the last certification deadline. Last week, Dr. Sebastian Gorka, the former White House advisor and Breitbart News national security editor, who was present at those negotiations, told Breitbart News, "I can tell you one thing: I was in the Oval the day it was recertified last. It was the president behind the Resolute Desk. It was Steve [Bannon] and myself on the side of the president. It was H.R. McMaster, Rex Tillerson, [Steven] Mnuchin who were saying we have to recertify."
Gorka believed it was unlikely the president would approve of another round of IRANA certification, a prediction borne out in Tillerson's pronouncements. On Wednesday, Center for Security Policy President Frank Gaffney told Breitbart News Daily that he considered decertification without withdrawal, the strategem on which the administration has now settled, to "be a bait-and-switch."
Tillerson called the JCPOA, against which Trump ran extensively during his campaign for the presidency, was "only one piece of what concerns us in our relationship with Iran."
"We don't think that nuclear deal should define the entire policy. Quite frankly, in the past, it more or less has defined Iran policy," he explained, citing the Iranian Shiite theocratic regime's "destabilizing" support of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and "other terrorist activities." The decision to not certify compliance has the effect of putting reform of the nuclear deal in the hands of Congress. Tillerson recommended against Congress either doing nothing - and leaving the current deal in place - or scraping the deal entirely. Instead, he suggested:
There is a third path the president is going to be suggesting Congress consider. ... amend the INARA to put in place some very firm trigger points ... that if Iran crosses any of these trigger points the sanctions automatically go back into place. There's no determination other than they've hit a trigger point. There's no other action required, the sanctions just automatically go back on. These are trigger points that are specific to the nuclear program itself, but also deal with things like their ballistic missile program.
Tillerson explained what he saw as the benefit of putting these "trigger points" into federal law, saying they would then form a more permanent part of American Iran policy. The provisions of a reform bill would extend beyond the sunset provisions of the JCPOA and would require both a future President and Congress to overturn, addressing what Tillerson called "a countdown clock to when Iran can resume its nuclear weapons development program."
"The President also would like to have the Congress deal with that expiry within INARA," Tillerson said, arguing such a law would put Iran on notice that the trigger points would be part American-Iranian relations in perpetuity.
The president will also direct the Treasury Department to develop "targeted sanctions" against individuals and entities associated with the IRGC's terrorist activities in the region. According to Tillerson, Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin will have "broad latitude" to impose such sanctions.
President Trump is expected to elaborate on these plans at his address to the nation on Iran at 12:45pm Eastern Daylight Time.
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