The threat was issued at the United Nations where North Korean Deputy U.N. Ambassador Kim In Ryong prepared remarks for a talk on nuclear weapons at a U.N. committee. He ended up not reading the threat out loud.
“As long as one does not take part in the U.S. military actions against the DPRK (North Korea), we have no intention to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against any other country,†read the North Korean ambassador’s prepared remarks, according to Reuters.
“The entire U.S. mainland is within our firing range and if the U.S. dares to invade our sacred territory even an inch it will not escape our severe punishment in any part of the globe,†the statement said.
The confrontation between the U.S. and North Korea has peaked following a number nuclear missile tests threatening U.S. allies in the region and hostile exchanges between President Donald Trump and North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un.
Kim told a U.N. disarmament committee that his country is the only state threatened by “such an extreme and direct nuclear threat" from the U.S. and accused the U.S. government of trying to stage a “secret operation aimed at the removal of our supreme leadership.â€
“Unless the hostile policy and the nuclear threat of the U.S. is thoroughly eradicated, we will never put our nuclear weapons and ballistic rockets on the negotiation table under any circumstance,†the North Korean official told the committee.
Syria fires missiles at Israeli Air Force flights as Russian Defense Minister heads to Israel -
Syria's surface-to-air SA-5 missile attack on Israeli reconnaissance flights over Lebanon on Monday, Oct. 16, was a demonstration that Damascus, like Tehran, is not totally dependent on Moscow.
It was the first time that Syrian SA-5 missiles had been launched against Israeli flights over Lebanon, although Damascus is sure that it would not curtail the air force's freedom of action in the skies of Lebanon and Syria
It was staged as Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, one of President Vladimir Putin's closest associates, was on his way to a visit in Israel. This visit had long been planned, but it gained considerable weight by its occurrence three days after President Donald Trump unveiled his new strategy for Iran, and on the day that armed hostilities over Kirkuk erupted in northern Iraq, when the Iraqi army and Shiite militias under Iranian Revolutionary Guards command attacked the Kurdish Peshmerga.
The timing also added extra significance to the Syrian missile fire on Israeli planes, especially after the recent merger of Syrian and Russian air commands at the Russian Hmeimim Air Base in Latakia.
Gen. Shoigu was therefore briefed on the incident in real time without waiting for an Israeli update.
DEBKAfile's intelligence sources have strong grounds to assume that Damascus and Tehran were closely coordinated in their actions in the last 24 hours. The Assad regime was sending a message that, notwithstanding massive Russian military assistance, Syria was not totally dependent on Moscow and would not hesitate to act alone if it so decided.
Our sources added that Syrian ground-to-air missiles were last fired against Israel flights on March 17, when they were heading back home from a bombing mission. The Syrian battery waited for a nod from Russia's Syrian command before the launch, but, by then, the Israel jets were over Israel's Sea of Galilee. This time, Damascus did not delay and fired the SA-5 missile without asking for permission.
IDF sources report that the four Israel missiles fired in its retaliatory air strike Monday destroyed the Syrian battery.
Israel destroys anti-aircraft battery in Syria after it fires at IDF jets - By Judah Ari Gross -
Israeli recon planes were flying over Lebanon when Syrian SA-5 surface-to-air missile targeted them, army says
Israeli Air Force jets attacked an anti-aircraft battery well inside Syria on Monday morning, after the surface-to-air system launched a missile at a different plane over the skies of Lebanon, the army said.
A military spokesperson said that "a number" of Israeli planes were flying over Lebanon as part of a "routine reconnaissance mission" on early Monday morning, when they came under attack by the Syrian anti-aircraft battery.
The targeted Israeli reconnaissance aircraft were not hit by the Syrian interceptor missile and returned to base safely, according to IDF spokesperson Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus.
He would not elaborate on the number or type of aircraft, nor on where exactly they were flying over Lebanon, the home country of the Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorist group.
A few hours later, the IAF sent out a separate sortie to attack the anti-aircraft battery - an SA-5 model - which was located some 50 kilometers east of Damascus, Conricus said.
The Russian military, which is allied with Syria and operates in the war-torn country, was notified "in real-time" ahead of the Israeli airstrike on the SA-5 battery, the spokesperson said.
Conricus said that while the army will continue to defend itself, it was not looking to "destablize" the situation with Syria.
"Preserving the relative stability is a common interest," the lieutenant colonel said.
The Israeli jets launched four bombs at the Syrian anti-aircraft system. According to an initial IDF assessment, the strike destroyed the SA-5 battery, or at least "incapacitated" it, Conricus said.
The IDF believes the Syrian battery that was struck was the same one that fired at the reconnaissance planes.
The SA-5, also known as the S-200, is a Russian-designed anti-aircraft system that has been in use since the late 1960s.
The IDF said it holds Syrian dictator Bashar Assad's regime responsible for the fire.
There was no immediate confirmation of the Israeli strike in Syrian state media.
According to the official government Sana news outlet, Monday was "Air Force and Air Defense Day" for Syria.
The incident came hours before Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu was due to meet with his Israeli counterpart Avigdor Liberman in Tel Aviv.
When Shoigu arrives in Tel Aviv "he will get a full briefing on the matter," Conricus said.
The spokesperson acknowledged the sensitivity of the timing of the incident and the potential for it to cause tension during Shoigu's visit, but said the military was "confident it won't influence anything else."
"This was obviously not a preplanned event," he added.
In order to avoid unwanted clashes with the Russian troops in Syria, Jerusalem and Moscow have developed a communication system.
Israeli officials do not typically discuss the full extent of the coordination between the two militaries, but stress that the IDF does not seek Russian permission before carrying out airstrikes in Syria.
In general, Israel's operation in Syria consist of bombing sites that are used to develop, store and transport advanced weaponry to the Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorist group, making Monday's strike something of an anomaly.
According to Conricus, this was the first time that Israeli aircraft were targeted by Syrian anti-aircraft missiles over Lebanese airspace since the start of the Syrian civil war. However, it was not the first time that IAF jets had been attacked by an SA-5 system.
In March, Assad's military fired multiple interceptor missiles from an SA-5 system at Israeli jets flying over Jordan on their way back from a bombing run in Syria. The IAF jets were unharmed, but one Syrian missile seemed to be on a trajectory that took it toward an Israeli community and so it was shot down by the Arrow 2 air defense system, in the first reported use of the system.
However, in that case, Israel did not respond to the anti-aircraft attack on the IAF jets with a retaliatory airstrike on the SA-5 battery that launched it.
Syria warns of 'serious repercussions' following Israeli airstrike - By Anna Ahronheim -
Israeli jets destroyed Assad regime SA-5 anti-aircraft battery after it fired on Israeli reconnaissance planes.
The Syrian army has warned of "dangerous consequences" following an airstrike by Israel on a regime SA-5 anti-aircraft battery east of the capital of Damascus after it fired a surface-to-air missile at Israeli jets.
Syria's SANA state news agency reported that the Assad regime "warned of the dangerous repercussions of Israel's repeated aggression attempts, stressing Syria's determination to continue its war against the terrorist groups, Israel's arm in the region."
According SANA, the Syrian air defense "directly hit one of the jets, forcing the enemy to retreat," contradicting Israeli military claims that all planes had returned safely from the operation.
The SA-5 missile battery, which was stationed some 50 kilometers east of the Syrian capital, fired at Israeli jets that were on a routine aerial reconnaissance flight in Lebanese airspace, IDF Spokesman Brig. Gen. Ronen Manelis stated.
Israel believes that the Syrians fired towards the Israeli jets at 10 a.m. Monday morning after thinking that they intended to attack. All Israeli aircraft returned to base safely and a few hours later responded by launching four bombs towards the same battery, destroying it.
"We see the Syrian regime as responsible and see these missiles as a clear Syrian provocation, and it will not be accepted," Manelis stated, adding that while Israel has no intention to enter into the civil war in Syria, Israel will react to all provocations and is prepared for the possibility of retaliation.
"If anti-aircraft fire is being carried out for any military activity, we will respond as we did now," he said on a call with journalists, adding that Russia was updated about the incident in real time and that it will be brought up during the visit of the Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
Moscow intervened in the Syrian conflict in September 2015, and officials from Israel and Russia meet regularly to discuss the deconfliction mechanism system implemented over Syria to prevent accidental clashes between the two militaries.
Shoigu will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman and other senior officials to discuss the Jewish State's ongoing concerns regarding Iran's entrenchment in Syria and the transfer of advanced weapons to Hezbollah by Tehran through Damascus.
Israel rarely comments on foreign reports of military activity in Syria but has publicly admitted to having struck over 100 Hezbollah targets in Syria, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying that strikes will continue when "we have information and operational feasibility."
Netanyahu commented on the attack in Syria on Monday afternoon, hours after it was announced by the IDF.
"Our policy is clear," he said in a statement. "Anyone who tries to harm us will be hit. Today they tried to hit our planes, which is unacceptable to us."
Netanyahu said the IAF acted with "precision and speed" and "destroyed what needed to be destroyed. We will continue to act as is needed to protect Israel's security."
During an IAF operation in March to strike a Hezbollah arms convoy in Syria, regime air defense fired three surface-to-air missiles towards IAF jets. It was the most serious incident between the two countries since the war in Syria began six years ago.
Following that incident, Liberman warned against any further launching of missiles by the Syrian regime, threatening to destroy all Syrian air defenses.
According to the IDF, the SA-5 missile battery destroyed by Israeli jets on Monday was the same that fired at Israeli jets in March, prompting Israel make use of its Arrow anti-missile system for the first time. The Syrians claimed at the time that one Israeli jet had been shot down and another damaged, a claim strongly denied by Israel.
The Arrow system, which has been operational since 2000, was designed to intercept heavy, long-range ground-to-ground ballistic missiles. Updates to the system have expanded its capabilities to also intercept medium-range missiles and rockets.
In January, the Israel Air Force received its first Arrow 3 interceptor, the most advanced Arrow system which is designed to provide ultimate air defense by intercepting ballistic missiles when they are still outside the Earth's atmosphere.
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Russia sandwiched in Syria between Israel, Iran - Maxim A. Suchkov - http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/10/russia-shoigu-visit-israel-syria-iran-military-liberman.html#ixzz4vy7yV4Oo
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu paid a two-day visit this week to Israel - his first as the top Russian military commander. On Oct. 16, Shoigu met in Tel Aviv with Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman and the Israel Defense Forces' Chief of General Staff Gadi Eizenkot. On Tuesday, he was hosted by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Hours before Shoigu landed in Tel Aviv, the Israeli air force destroyed a Syrian army anti-aircraft battery in an alleged retaliation to Damascus firing a missile at Israeli planes while they were on a reconnaissance mission over neighboring Lebanon. Israel said it informed Russia of the incident "in real-time mode" and "comprehensively briefed" Shoigu to alleviate a potentially negative response from Moscow.
Unlike Shoigu's snap visit to Damascus in September, which was shrouded in mystery, on this trip to Israel he was clear about his purpose: "Besides the military and military-technical cooperation [between our countries], the main issue remains the fight against terrorism, as well as the [general] situation in the region. Separately, we'd like to discuss everything that has to do with Syria. [Russia's] operation there is coming to its end. There are several points that require urgent solutions and discussion of further prospects. ... There is a lot to talk about," said Shoigu in his opening statement at the meeting with Liberman.
In response, Liberman said Israel "values its relations with Russia for the sincere, candid dialogue [between the two]. ... I'm positive that this is the way to solve all the problems." He spoke first in Russian and then repeated his remarks in Hebrew.
Shoigu's allusions to military-technical cooperation imply the interest Israel apparently has in purchasing Russia's heavy infantry fighting vehicle, the BMPT Terminator. Russia reportedly deployed the vehicle in Syria for field trials against the Islamic State (IS) and it came in handy for urban fights. Commenting on the prospects of the deal between Russia and Israel, Andrei Frolov, a military analyst and editor-in-chief of the Russian journal Eksport Vooruzheny (Arms Export), told Al-Monitor, "The Israelis have never directly bought arms from Russia. There were a few projects on the modernization of Soviet military equipment in third countries, but never a direct purchase - unlike the Russians, who did buy weapons from Israel. If the sale were to happen, it would be emblematic, yet we shouldn't be overestimating the financial or military significance of the [potential] deal."
What was more important in the Shoigu-Liberman talks was the military coordination between Moscow and Tel Aviv at the current stage, as well as how the two states are going to approach Syria and Iran in the long run.
Shoigu's statements that the Russian campaign in Syria is "coming to its end" triggered a flurry of speculation over the future course of Moscow's policies in the country. Frolov said the remarks - the way they were formulated - sound rather abstract: "It's hard to tell whether it really is coming to its end. One needs to know the exact initial [operational] goals to be able to make precise conclusions."
It's hardly the first time Russia has proclaimed the end was near. In February, Shoigu said Russian troops would be coming home. In March, President Vladimir Putin announced the goals in Syria "were completed" and indeed ordered the drawdown of Russia's main forces - but the Russian campaign is still going. In late August, Shoigu stated the war in Syria had reached a "de facto" end. In September, at a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Putin reiterated the idea, saying, "Conditions for peace have been created in Syria." Last week, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that "92% of the Syrian territory was freed from [IS]." So if the goal was "to defeat the terrorists," as Putin proclaimed when Russia entered Syria two years ago, the mission is indeed coming to an end. Yet Russia is facing an array of other challenges, including complications over the fate of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Iran's growing presence.
Iran was especially large on Shoigu's agenda during the meeting with Netanyahu. Following the encounter, the Israeli prime minister wrote on his Twitter page, "Iran is attempting to establish itself militarily in Syria. I told the Russian DM: Iran needs to understand that Israel will not allow this." Russia's reputable Kommersant newspaper cites its sources in the Defense Ministry as saying the Shoigu-led delegation shared with the Israelis details of Russia's air force operations in Syria and Iran's contribution to the fight against terrorism in that country. Moscow also provided some information on the way the four de-escalation zones in Syria will function. Israel opposes the idea of Iran being one of the intermediaries in the process, but Russia is set to maintain the current framework.
Russia's support for Hezbollah has also been on the agenda for the two parties, with the Russians supposedly assuring the Israelis that their dealings with the group don't go beyond targeted planning of certain operations in Syria and that Moscow doesn't supply it with arms.
Russian diplomacy takes pride in its flexibility and openness to different players in the Middle East. From Assad and Tehran to the Syrian opposition and Tel Aviv, from Doha to Riyadh, from Turks to Kurds and from Libya's Gen. Khalifa Hifter to Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, Moscow tries to engage virtually all stakeholders. This is no easy mission, and the military incident between Israel and Syria on the day of Shoigu's visit has exposed the objective limits of Russia's power to keep conflict-bound actors apart.
Given Israel's role in the region, its military power and its willingness to use it, it is critical for Putin to continue the current level of communication with Netanyahu to ensure Russia's own presence is immune from any Israeli assaults. But it is also clear Israel is determined to stop Iran's growing presence near Israel's borders. At the same time, Tehran is resolved to expand and solidify its presence. Moscow doesn't see that situation as its own fight and is working to dodge potential complications of ending up on either side.
Israel has been rather loyal to Russia's military presence - and realizes its own gains from it - and Iran has been crucial to Russia on the ground in Syria. But Russia's goals in Syria aren't ultimately about either Israel or Iran. Moscow is, however, wary of each party trying to work Russia's presence to the detriment of the other. For instance, Russian media outlets have recently raised questions about Iran's intentions when it changed the location of an Iran-to-Hezbollah arms transfer point from the border with Lebanon to central Syria, closer to Palmyra. As a result of that change, Israel will have to fly deep into Syrian territory to make its bombing raids on the transfer point and could at some point clash with Russian air forces or harm Russian advisers thought to be stationed at Palmyra.
Such moves are likely to happen more often and represent a long-term challenge to Moscow. Russia will need to sit down with Israel and seriously talk about whether Israel's interests can be squared with Russia's interests, and whether Moscow really has any leverage over Tehran, whether in Syria or beyond. Shoigu's visit appears to be important in this very regard. Similar conversations need to be held with Iran - and that's the likely goal of Putin's visit to Tehran in early November.
Missile program will 'expand & continue' despite US pressure - Iran's Revolutionary Guards -
Iran will not yield to pressure from the US and is determined to "expand and continue" its missile program, the country's elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) have said.
"Iran's ballistic missile program will expand and it will continue with more speed in reaction to Trump's hostile approach towards this revolutionary organization (the Guards)," the force said in a statement published by Tasnim, as cited by Reuters.
On Friday, President Trump opted to not re-certify the nuclear deal made in 2015 by the previous administration of Barack Obama and world powers including Russia, France, Germany, the UK, and China. Instead, the American leader passed the matter to Congress. The move immediately triggered an outcry from other signatories.
On Monday, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said he hoped "that Congress does not put this accord in jeopardy."
In the immediate aftermath, representatives of France and Germany (who are among parties to the agreement) immediately cautioned that the deal should be kept in place, also reaffirming their commitment to it.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) also repeated its confirmation that Tehran is not violating its obligations. EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini noted that the 2015 deal is "not a bilateral agreement, it does not belong to any single country and it is not up to any single country to terminate it."
Moscow condemned Trump's refusal to adhere to the Iran nuclear deal, saying that the move poses a threat to international security. "Such policy... in fact deals a heavy blow to the global non-proliferation efforts," Mikhail Ulyanov, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry's Department on Non-proliferation and Arms Control, said.
These concerns appear to have fallen on deaf ears, since on Monday Trump noted that a total termination of the Iran nuclear deal was a very real possibility. Lieutenant Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Hossein Salami said Washington has long sought to isolate Iran from the international community, but the American leader's recent comments have had the opposite effect, isolating Washington from rest from the world.
Speaking at a gathering of IRGC forces in Tehran on Wednesday, Brigadier General Salami referred to US hostile moves against the Islamic Republic over the past four decades, saying all of those moves had ended in failure, Tasnim reported.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif noted last week that Trump's decision not to re-certify the 2015 nuclear treaty will only cripple Washington's own credibility as "nobody else will trust any US administration to engage in any long-term negotiation because the length of any commitment ... with any US administration would be the remainder of the term of that president."
The landmark treaty was negotiated in summer 2015 by Russia, France, the US, China, the United Kingdom and Germany - as well as Iran. Under the terms of the deal, in exchange for the gradual lifting of sanctions, Tehran agreed to reduce the number of its uranium-enrichment centrifuges by two-thirds, cap its enrichment below the level needed for weapons-grade material, reduce its enriched uranium stockpile by 98 percent and allow international inspections.
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As nuclear threat mushrooms, experts group says situation worse than Cold War - By Judah Ari Gross - https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-nuclear-threat-mushrooms-group-says-situation-worse-than-cold-war/
At anti-nuke Luxembourg Forum's annual confab, experts discuss Iran deal, North Korea, India-Pakistan conflict, but most fear deteriorating Russia-US relationship
Dozens of experts and former senior officials from around the world met in the French capital last week to discuss the threat of nuclear proliferation, something they believe is ignored despite the dire situation and - according to some - worse than it was during the Cold War.
The Iran deal, the risk posed by North Korea and the ever-present potential that the two atomic powers India and Pakistan will go to war were deemed the most pressing threats at the 10th anniversary conference of the International Luxembourg Forum on Preventing Nuclear Catastrophe.
But they were not seen as the most dangerous. That distinction belonged to the deteriorating ties between United States and Russia, which possess more nuclear weapons than every other country combined, several times over. (The US and Russia each have approximately 7,000 warheads. France, with the next largest stockpile, has about 300, according to the Federation of American Scientists.)
The Luxembourg Forum, led by Russian Jewish magnate Viatcheslav Moshe Kantor, was founded a decade ago and meets each year in world capitals to discuss how best to advance its cause of nuclear disarmament. The group, made up of experts in the field of nuclear physics, diplomacy and security, met on October 9 and 10 in Paris's Four Seasons hotel.
These experts - many of them former officials from the US, Russia, Israel, the UK and South Korea - warned that unlike during the Cold War, when the threat of nuclear war was immediate and apparent, world leaders and their constituents are less cognizant of the risk today and do not have the mechanisms in place to prevent such a conflict.
In particular, William Perry, who served as US secretary of defense under Bill Clinton and held a number of security-related positions in the decades prior, stressed that today there was a significant threat of nations "blundering" into nuclear war.
"Have we forgotten the Cuban missile crisis?" Perry rhetorically asked the conference.
The former defense secretary recalled a number of near misses between the US and Russia during the Cold War, when human or machine error nearly set off nuclear war.
He warned that today the same could happen again between the US and Russia, India and Pakistan, or North and South Korea.
"We could have the same number of casualties as all of World War II, only these would happen in six hours instead of six years," he said.
Comments reportedly made by US President Donald Trump about dramatically increasing the number of nuclear weapons in the American arsenal also raised concerns about the status of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, a decades-old international agreement meant to curb the development, testing and use of nuclear bombs.
Yet the meeting in Paris was overshadowed by discussion over the Iran nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, ahead of US President Donald Trump's decision last Friday to not recertify it, a move that potentially imperils the agreement.
This recertification process is required by a provision in a 2015 US law according to which the president needs to inform Congress every three months if the Islamic Republic is adhering to the terms of the agreement in exchange for broad international relief from oil, trade and financial sanctions. By refusing to do so, Trump allows the US to pass new sanctions on Iran, though there have not yet been moves to do so.
The international forum was unanimously opposed to dissolving the deal, with some members acting thoroughly flabbergasted by the notion, seeing no value whatsoever in scrapping it.
"No one pays and all gain" from the JCPOA, said Hans Blix, the former director-general of the International Atomic Energy Association.
Tony Blair, who spoke on the first day of the conference, acknowledged that there was some legitimate criticism of the deal, but said the "sensible thing to do" was to uphold it.
Kantor, who is also president of the European Jewish Congress, similarly argued in favor of the agreement, saying that scrapping it would be "unforgivable."
Trump says he believes that the US can renegotiate the deal to make it last longer and give the IAEA easier access to Iranian military sites. But not everyone shares that belief.
"It is a fallacy that a better agreement can be negotiated. It is a misunderstanding on the part of the president," Perry said.
Speaking to The Times of Israel on the sidelines of the conference, former Israeli national security adviser Uzi Arad said that he suspects the overwhelming support for the deal is not necessarily because of its merits, but due to the drawn-out fight for it.
After such an extended battle for the JCPOA, its proponents now have to stand behind it fully, even if it's not necessarily optimal, Arad said.
The ongoing spat between the United States and North Korea - or, more specifically, US President Donald Trump and North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un - was another frequent topic of conversation at the two-day conference.
Perry said he was "appalled" by the level of discourse between the two heads of state, with Trump derisively referring to Un as "rocket man," and Un firing back by calling Trump a "dotard."
There was general consensus that the tension between North Korea and the US needed to be resolved diplomatically, due to the tremendous potential cost of life that would come from a military exchange. There was, however, disagreement over what the terms and goals of these talks should be.
Some advocated an exchange in which North Korea would halt all nuclear and ballistic missile tests, after which the US would stop sanctions. But James Acton, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, argued against this "all or nothing" approach in favor of a "less for less" model, under which Pyongyang would scale down its tests and military exercises and the US would decrease the sanctions proportionally.
Most of the attendees saw Beijing, North Korea's main trading partner, as being the key to these negotiations.
Byungki Kim, a South Korean professor of international relations, said if China were to put pressure on the country, it would force them to enter talks with the United States.
"Turn off the gas for three months, make it hurt. Then turn it back on, and they'll come to the negotiating table," Kim told the Forum.
However, the lone Chinese representative - Zhenqiang Pan, an analyst with no official government - said that the general view in his country is that the conflict is between the US and North Korea so China does not have direct responsibility for it.
"China can be a mediator. It has some leverage [over North Korea], but it's limited," Pan said.
In India and Pakistan, two nuclear armed nations engaged in an extended, simmering conflict over territorial and ethnic disputes, the Luxembourg Forum saw the most feasible chance for atomic warfare.
The two countries have maintained tense relations for decades. This comes, in part, from both nations claiming the Kashmir region as their own, as well as from differences in the countries' religions - Pakistan is majority Muslim, while India is majority Hindu.
Perry, the former US defense secretary, showed the forum a video that his foundation produced about a scenario in which the two countries fire atomic weapons at one another.
In the animated video, a group of Pakistani terrorists carry out an attack in India, prompting an Indian army retaliation. The military exchanges escalate quickly, culminating in the launching of nuclear weapons.
While the Forum was unanimous in identifying India and Pakistan as being likely locations of a future nuclear war, no specific proposals were made to disarm the two countries or resolve the conflict between them.
At the close of the conference, the delegates set to work writing a document with their proposals.
Once this document is prepared, it will be published by the Luxembourg Forum and the attendees are meant to present the findings to their home countries.
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The Calm Before the Storm - By Matt Ward - http://www.raptureready.com/2017/10/14/the-calm-before-the-storm/
North Korea is being manipulated masterfully by Iran. Odd bedfellows though they are, Iran and North Korea are well established allies, and current events in East Asia cannot be separated from events occurring in Syria and the Middle East at the same time.
It is an open secret that Iran and North Korea have more than merely a diplomatically cordial relationship. They actively share common strategic goals, and these shared goals have brought them increasingly close together. As recently as last month, a delegation from Pyongyang, led by parliamentary speaker Kim Yong Nam, who ranks as the second most important person in the North Korean hierarchical system, spent ten days in Tehran as guests of the government. While there, the North Koreans met with the heads of the Iranian army and intelligence agencies, as well as Iranian leaders in industry. The discussions across the board, from military to industrial talks, were identical as to how they could deepen mutual cooperation across all spheres to enable both parties to meet their wider strategic goals.
On the surface, the relationship they share seems to be an odd one; Iran is a Shiite theocracy who views themselves as the only true defenders of Islam, while North Korea is a virulently atheistic regime. Neither Iran nor North Korea share commonalities ethnically; neither do they share any borders. What they do share, most importantly, is commonality in their geopolitical objectives.
In allying itself with North Korea, even though they are so diametrically opposed in all other spheres, Iran has been able to continue to develop its own regional hegemonic and nuclear ambitions. Iran is using North Korea because the relationship allows them to progress more rapidly towards fulfilling their own nuclear ambitions, and because it furthers their own dominance in the Middle East, especially in Syria. Being in a relationship with North Korea has allowed them to manipulate events in East Asia, so as to take the pressure off themselves at home.
What makes this alliance particularly robust and functional is that both Iran and North Korea are also bonded by a mutual loathing for America and Americanism. Hating America actively binds them both together.
In real terms Iranian - North Korean cooperation focuses primarily in two areas: nuclear weapons development and ballistic missile technology. This cooperation is longstanding. Michael Green, former senior director for Asia at the National Security Council, relates that during nuclear talks held with the United States as long ago as March 2003, the head of the North Korean delegation confirmed that Pyongyang had a "nuclear deterrent" and threatened to "expand," "demonstrate," and "transfer" the deterrent unless the United States ended its hostile policy [1]. Many at the time believed this reference of "transferring" this "nuclear deterrent" was in reference to Iran.
Iran seeks North Korean cooperation in the development of its nuclear weapons program, and North Korea seeks Iranian help in developing its Intercontinental Ballistic Missile systems. North Korea has the bomb, and Iran has the reliable means to deliver it; so they are helping each other by swapping their "know how [2].
This is where the Presidency of Barack Obama will come back to haunt this world, sooner rather than later. Obama, towards the end of his second term, released significant funds to the Iranian regime, and loosened what had previously been a tight system of sanctions against Iran, hailing it at the time as a mark of the success of the Iranian Nuclear Accord. It was a fallacy.
Suddenly Iran, flush with cash, used the money to buy considerable amounts of weaponry from North Korea, thereby providing Pyongyang with the financial resources it so desperately needed to ignore the international sanctions that were being arrayed against it. More importantly, loosening sanctions and releasing funds to Iran indirectly allowed North Korea to continue funding its own nuclear weapons program, a program now reaching fulfillment in our own day [3,4].
Relaxing sanctions has also meant that it is exceptionally difficult for the United Nations, or other leading international agencies like the IAEA, to detect the subtle cooperation and financial transactions that have been taking place between Iran and North Korea, all which might indicate breaches of international accords or giveaway tell-tale signals indicating their own nuclear threshold status. All thanks to Barack Obama.
Iran has not been standing idly by while the world has been captivated by North Korea. Last week, on September 22nd, Iran released a film in which it claimed to have test-fired a new, highly advanced ballistic missile system. This new weapon, the Khoramshahr, is estimated to have a range that exceeds 2,000km, finally putting all of Israel well within range.
The Khoramshahr can, according to the Iranian release, carry multiple warheads, and is also - unlike other crude variations - exceptionally accurate, because it has advanced live-video guidance systems contained within its nose cone. This means that the missile could be manually guided onto a target remotely. The Khoramshahr, if the release is true, would constitute an entirely different level of threat to Israel than any that has come before.
Yet despite this obvious breach of the Iranian Nuclear Agreement, sidetracked by the burgeoning crisis occurring in East Asia, it has barely even been covered by the main news media in the West. Indeed, the US military has even asserted that this launch did not take place and has immediately dropped the matter, dismissing it out of hand. But this is not the view the Israeli intelligence services and the Israeli military take; they could not disagree more with the US assessment. They believe the test was a legitimate one, and that a threshold is about to be crossed by Iran, a threshold that may force them to soon take action.
Israel is fast approaching the point where strong speeches voicing condemnation against Iranian encroachments into Syria, or about their weapons programs, are not enough. The danger to Israel is becoming too great. Very soon Iran is going to reach the point, as will North Korea, where they actually will have a reliable and deliverable nuclear weapons system. When that point is reached, Iran will become the biggest existential threat to the continued existence of Israel as a nation state since its founding in 1948.
At this point the only silver lining is Donald Trump. Unlike Obama's misguided, and some might say negligent approach to the Iranian threat, the indications are that President Trump is about to embark upon a different approach. There is increasing speculation, fueled by the President himself, that he is about to take some form of definitive action; either by challenging the North Korean nuclear program directly or in decertifying the Iranian nuclear deal.
The world is bracing itself for what is about to come; and much of what may shortly follow is entirely unpredictable. But about one thing we can be certain: If Trump does end the Iranian Nuclear Accord or takes any direct form of action against North Korea, this really could be the calm before the storm. A real Pandora's box may be about to be opened.
The threat was issued at the United Nations where North Korean Deputy U.N. Ambassador Kim In Ryong prepared remarks for a talk on nuclear weapons at a U.N. committee. He ended up not reading the threat out loud.
“As long as one does not take part in the U.S. military actions against the DPRK (North Korea), we have no intention to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against any other country,†read the North Korean ambassador’s prepared remarks, according to Reuters.
“The entire U.S. mainland is within our firing range and if the U.S. dares to invade our sacred territory even an inch it will not escape our severe punishment in any part of the globe,†the statement said.
The confrontation between the U.S. and North Korea has peaked following a number nuclear missile tests threatening U.S. allies in the region and hostile exchanges between President Donald Trump and North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un.
Kim told a U.N. disarmament committee that his country is the only state threatened by “such an extreme and direct nuclear threat" from the U.S. and accused the U.S. government of trying to stage a “secret operation aimed at the removal of our supreme leadership.â€
“Unless the hostile policy and the nuclear threat of the U.S. is thoroughly eradicated, we will never put our nuclear weapons and ballistic rockets on the negotiation table under any circumstance,†the North Korean official told the committee.
Syria fires missiles at Israeli Air Force flights as Russian Defense Minister heads to Israel -
Syria's surface-to-air SA-5 missile attack on Israeli reconnaissance flights over Lebanon on Monday, Oct. 16, was a demonstration that Damascus, like Tehran, is not totally dependent on Moscow.
It was the first time that Syrian SA-5 missiles had been launched against Israeli flights over Lebanon, although Damascus is sure that it would not curtail the air force's freedom of action in the skies of Lebanon and Syria
It was staged as Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, one of President Vladimir Putin's closest associates, was on his way to a visit in Israel. This visit had long been planned, but it gained considerable weight by its occurrence three days after President Donald Trump unveiled his new strategy for Iran, and on the day that armed hostilities over Kirkuk erupted in northern Iraq, when the Iraqi army and Shiite militias under Iranian Revolutionary Guards command attacked the Kurdish Peshmerga.
The timing also added extra significance to the Syrian missile fire on Israeli planes, especially after the recent merger of Syrian and Russian air commands at the Russian Hmeimim Air Base in Latakia.
Gen. Shoigu was therefore briefed on the incident in real time without waiting for an Israeli update.
DEBKAfile's intelligence sources have strong grounds to assume that Damascus and Tehran were closely coordinated in their actions in the last 24 hours. The Assad regime was sending a message that, notwithstanding massive Russian military assistance, Syria was not totally dependent on Moscow and would not hesitate to act alone if it so decided.
Our sources added that Syrian ground-to-air missiles were last fired against Israel flights on March 17, when they were heading back home from a bombing mission. The Syrian battery waited for a nod from Russia's Syrian command before the launch, but, by then, the Israel jets were over Israel's Sea of Galilee. This time, Damascus did not delay and fired the SA-5 missile without asking for permission.
IDF sources report that the four Israel missiles fired in its retaliatory air strike Monday destroyed the Syrian battery.
Israel destroys anti-aircraft battery in Syria after it fires at IDF jets - By Judah Ari Gross -
Israeli recon planes were flying over Lebanon when Syrian SA-5 surface-to-air missile targeted them, army says
Israeli Air Force jets attacked an anti-aircraft battery well inside Syria on Monday morning, after the surface-to-air system launched a missile at a different plane over the skies of Lebanon, the army said.
A military spokesperson said that "a number" of Israeli planes were flying over Lebanon as part of a "routine reconnaissance mission" on early Monday morning, when they came under attack by the Syrian anti-aircraft battery.
The targeted Israeli reconnaissance aircraft were not hit by the Syrian interceptor missile and returned to base safely, according to IDF spokesperson Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus.
He would not elaborate on the number or type of aircraft, nor on where exactly they were flying over Lebanon, the home country of the Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorist group.
A few hours later, the IAF sent out a separate sortie to attack the anti-aircraft battery - an SA-5 model - which was located some 50 kilometers east of Damascus, Conricus said.
The Russian military, which is allied with Syria and operates in the war-torn country, was notified "in real-time" ahead of the Israeli airstrike on the SA-5 battery, the spokesperson said.
Conricus said that while the army will continue to defend itself, it was not looking to "destablize" the situation with Syria.
"Preserving the relative stability is a common interest," the lieutenant colonel said.
The Israeli jets launched four bombs at the Syrian anti-aircraft system. According to an initial IDF assessment, the strike destroyed the SA-5 battery, or at least "incapacitated" it, Conricus said.
The IDF believes the Syrian battery that was struck was the same one that fired at the reconnaissance planes.
The SA-5, also known as the S-200, is a Russian-designed anti-aircraft system that has been in use since the late 1960s.
The IDF said it holds Syrian dictator Bashar Assad's regime responsible for the fire.
There was no immediate confirmation of the Israeli strike in Syrian state media.
According to the official government Sana news outlet, Monday was "Air Force and Air Defense Day" for Syria.
The incident came hours before Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu was due to meet with his Israeli counterpart Avigdor Liberman in Tel Aviv.
When Shoigu arrives in Tel Aviv "he will get a full briefing on the matter," Conricus said.
The spokesperson acknowledged the sensitivity of the timing of the incident and the potential for it to cause tension during Shoigu's visit, but said the military was "confident it won't influence anything else."
"This was obviously not a preplanned event," he added.
In order to avoid unwanted clashes with the Russian troops in Syria, Jerusalem and Moscow have developed a communication system.
Israeli officials do not typically discuss the full extent of the coordination between the two militaries, but stress that the IDF does not seek Russian permission before carrying out airstrikes in Syria.
In general, Israel's operation in Syria consist of bombing sites that are used to develop, store and transport advanced weaponry to the Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorist group, making Monday's strike something of an anomaly.
According to Conricus, this was the first time that Israeli aircraft were targeted by Syrian anti-aircraft missiles over Lebanese airspace since the start of the Syrian civil war. However, it was not the first time that IAF jets had been attacked by an SA-5 system.
In March, Assad's military fired multiple interceptor missiles from an SA-5 system at Israeli jets flying over Jordan on their way back from a bombing run in Syria. The IAF jets were unharmed, but one Syrian missile seemed to be on a trajectory that took it toward an Israeli community and so it was shot down by the Arrow 2 air defense system, in the first reported use of the system.
However, in that case, Israel did not respond to the anti-aircraft attack on the IAF jets with a retaliatory airstrike on the SA-5 battery that launched it.
Syria warns of 'serious repercussions' following Israeli airstrike - By Anna Ahronheim -
Israeli jets destroyed Assad regime SA-5 anti-aircraft battery after it fired on Israeli reconnaissance planes.
The Syrian army has warned of "dangerous consequences" following an airstrike by Israel on a regime SA-5 anti-aircraft battery east of the capital of Damascus after it fired a surface-to-air missile at Israeli jets.
Syria's SANA state news agency reported that the Assad regime "warned of the dangerous repercussions of Israel's repeated aggression attempts, stressing Syria's determination to continue its war against the terrorist groups, Israel's arm in the region."
According SANA, the Syrian air defense "directly hit one of the jets, forcing the enemy to retreat," contradicting Israeli military claims that all planes had returned safely from the operation.
The SA-5 missile battery, which was stationed some 50 kilometers east of the Syrian capital, fired at Israeli jets that were on a routine aerial reconnaissance flight in Lebanese airspace, IDF Spokesman Brig. Gen. Ronen Manelis stated.
Israel believes that the Syrians fired towards the Israeli jets at 10 a.m. Monday morning after thinking that they intended to attack. All Israeli aircraft returned to base safely and a few hours later responded by launching four bombs towards the same battery, destroying it.
"We see the Syrian regime as responsible and see these missiles as a clear Syrian provocation, and it will not be accepted," Manelis stated, adding that while Israel has no intention to enter into the civil war in Syria, Israel will react to all provocations and is prepared for the possibility of retaliation.
"If anti-aircraft fire is being carried out for any military activity, we will respond as we did now," he said on a call with journalists, adding that Russia was updated about the incident in real time and that it will be brought up during the visit of the Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
Moscow intervened in the Syrian conflict in September 2015, and officials from Israel and Russia meet regularly to discuss the deconfliction mechanism system implemented over Syria to prevent accidental clashes between the two militaries.
Shoigu will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman and other senior officials to discuss the Jewish State's ongoing concerns regarding Iran's entrenchment in Syria and the transfer of advanced weapons to Hezbollah by Tehran through Damascus.
Israel rarely comments on foreign reports of military activity in Syria but has publicly admitted to having struck over 100 Hezbollah targets in Syria, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying that strikes will continue when "we have information and operational feasibility."
Netanyahu commented on the attack in Syria on Monday afternoon, hours after it was announced by the IDF.
"Our policy is clear," he said in a statement. "Anyone who tries to harm us will be hit. Today they tried to hit our planes, which is unacceptable to us."
Netanyahu said the IAF acted with "precision and speed" and "destroyed what needed to be destroyed. We will continue to act as is needed to protect Israel's security."
During an IAF operation in March to strike a Hezbollah arms convoy in Syria, regime air defense fired three surface-to-air missiles towards IAF jets. It was the most serious incident between the two countries since the war in Syria began six years ago.
Following that incident, Liberman warned against any further launching of missiles by the Syrian regime, threatening to destroy all Syrian air defenses.
According to the IDF, the SA-5 missile battery destroyed by Israeli jets on Monday was the same that fired at Israeli jets in March, prompting Israel make use of its Arrow anti-missile system for the first time. The Syrians claimed at the time that one Israeli jet had been shot down and another damaged, a claim strongly denied by Israel.
The Arrow system, which has been operational since 2000, was designed to intercept heavy, long-range ground-to-ground ballistic missiles. Updates to the system have expanded its capabilities to also intercept medium-range missiles and rockets.
In January, the Israel Air Force received its first Arrow 3 interceptor, the most advanced Arrow system which is designed to provide ultimate air defense by intercepting ballistic missiles when they are still outside the Earth's atmosphere.
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Russia sandwiched in Syria between Israel, Iran - Maxim A. Suchkov - http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/10/russia-shoigu-visit-israel-syria-iran-military-liberman.html#ixzz4vy7yV4Oo
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu paid a two-day visit this week to Israel - his first as the top Russian military commander. On Oct. 16, Shoigu met in Tel Aviv with Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman and the Israel Defense Forces' Chief of General Staff Gadi Eizenkot. On Tuesday, he was hosted by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Hours before Shoigu landed in Tel Aviv, the Israeli air force destroyed a Syrian army anti-aircraft battery in an alleged retaliation to Damascus firing a missile at Israeli planes while they were on a reconnaissance mission over neighboring Lebanon. Israel said it informed Russia of the incident "in real-time mode" and "comprehensively briefed" Shoigu to alleviate a potentially negative response from Moscow.
Unlike Shoigu's snap visit to Damascus in September, which was shrouded in mystery, on this trip to Israel he was clear about his purpose: "Besides the military and military-technical cooperation [between our countries], the main issue remains the fight against terrorism, as well as the [general] situation in the region. Separately, we'd like to discuss everything that has to do with Syria. [Russia's] operation there is coming to its end. There are several points that require urgent solutions and discussion of further prospects. ... There is a lot to talk about," said Shoigu in his opening statement at the meeting with Liberman.
In response, Liberman said Israel "values its relations with Russia for the sincere, candid dialogue [between the two]. ... I'm positive that this is the way to solve all the problems." He spoke first in Russian and then repeated his remarks in Hebrew.
Shoigu's allusions to military-technical cooperation imply the interest Israel apparently has in purchasing Russia's heavy infantry fighting vehicle, the BMPT Terminator. Russia reportedly deployed the vehicle in Syria for field trials against the Islamic State (IS) and it came in handy for urban fights. Commenting on the prospects of the deal between Russia and Israel, Andrei Frolov, a military analyst and editor-in-chief of the Russian journal Eksport Vooruzheny (Arms Export), told Al-Monitor, "The Israelis have never directly bought arms from Russia. There were a few projects on the modernization of Soviet military equipment in third countries, but never a direct purchase - unlike the Russians, who did buy weapons from Israel. If the sale were to happen, it would be emblematic, yet we shouldn't be overestimating the financial or military significance of the [potential] deal."
What was more important in the Shoigu-Liberman talks was the military coordination between Moscow and Tel Aviv at the current stage, as well as how the two states are going to approach Syria and Iran in the long run.
Shoigu's statements that the Russian campaign in Syria is "coming to its end" triggered a flurry of speculation over the future course of Moscow's policies in the country. Frolov said the remarks - the way they were formulated - sound rather abstract: "It's hard to tell whether it really is coming to its end. One needs to know the exact initial [operational] goals to be able to make precise conclusions."
It's hardly the first time Russia has proclaimed the end was near. In February, Shoigu said Russian troops would be coming home. In March, President Vladimir Putin announced the goals in Syria "were completed" and indeed ordered the drawdown of Russia's main forces - but the Russian campaign is still going. In late August, Shoigu stated the war in Syria had reached a "de facto" end. In September, at a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Putin reiterated the idea, saying, "Conditions for peace have been created in Syria." Last week, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that "92% of the Syrian territory was freed from [IS]." So if the goal was "to defeat the terrorists," as Putin proclaimed when Russia entered Syria two years ago, the mission is indeed coming to an end. Yet Russia is facing an array of other challenges, including complications over the fate of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Iran's growing presence.
Iran was especially large on Shoigu's agenda during the meeting with Netanyahu. Following the encounter, the Israeli prime minister wrote on his Twitter page, "Iran is attempting to establish itself militarily in Syria. I told the Russian DM: Iran needs to understand that Israel will not allow this." Russia's reputable Kommersant newspaper cites its sources in the Defense Ministry as saying the Shoigu-led delegation shared with the Israelis details of Russia's air force operations in Syria and Iran's contribution to the fight against terrorism in that country. Moscow also provided some information on the way the four de-escalation zones in Syria will function. Israel opposes the idea of Iran being one of the intermediaries in the process, but Russia is set to maintain the current framework.
Russia's support for Hezbollah has also been on the agenda for the two parties, with the Russians supposedly assuring the Israelis that their dealings with the group don't go beyond targeted planning of certain operations in Syria and that Moscow doesn't supply it with arms.
Russian diplomacy takes pride in its flexibility and openness to different players in the Middle East. From Assad and Tehran to the Syrian opposition and Tel Aviv, from Doha to Riyadh, from Turks to Kurds and from Libya's Gen. Khalifa Hifter to Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, Moscow tries to engage virtually all stakeholders. This is no easy mission, and the military incident between Israel and Syria on the day of Shoigu's visit has exposed the objective limits of Russia's power to keep conflict-bound actors apart.
Given Israel's role in the region, its military power and its willingness to use it, it is critical for Putin to continue the current level of communication with Netanyahu to ensure Russia's own presence is immune from any Israeli assaults. But it is also clear Israel is determined to stop Iran's growing presence near Israel's borders. At the same time, Tehran is resolved to expand and solidify its presence. Moscow doesn't see that situation as its own fight and is working to dodge potential complications of ending up on either side.
Israel has been rather loyal to Russia's military presence - and realizes its own gains from it - and Iran has been crucial to Russia on the ground in Syria. But Russia's goals in Syria aren't ultimately about either Israel or Iran. Moscow is, however, wary of each party trying to work Russia's presence to the detriment of the other. For instance, Russian media outlets have recently raised questions about Iran's intentions when it changed the location of an Iran-to-Hezbollah arms transfer point from the border with Lebanon to central Syria, closer to Palmyra. As a result of that change, Israel will have to fly deep into Syrian territory to make its bombing raids on the transfer point and could at some point clash with Russian air forces or harm Russian advisers thought to be stationed at Palmyra.
Such moves are likely to happen more often and represent a long-term challenge to Moscow. Russia will need to sit down with Israel and seriously talk about whether Israel's interests can be squared with Russia's interests, and whether Moscow really has any leverage over Tehran, whether in Syria or beyond. Shoigu's visit appears to be important in this very regard. Similar conversations need to be held with Iran - and that's the likely goal of Putin's visit to Tehran in early November.
Missile program will 'expand & continue' despite US pressure - Iran's Revolutionary Guards -
Iran will not yield to pressure from the US and is determined to "expand and continue" its missile program, the country's elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) have said.
"Iran's ballistic missile program will expand and it will continue with more speed in reaction to Trump's hostile approach towards this revolutionary organization (the Guards)," the force said in a statement published by Tasnim, as cited by Reuters.
On Friday, President Trump opted to not re-certify the nuclear deal made in 2015 by the previous administration of Barack Obama and world powers including Russia, France, Germany, the UK, and China. Instead, the American leader passed the matter to Congress. The move immediately triggered an outcry from other signatories.
On Monday, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said he hoped "that Congress does not put this accord in jeopardy."
In the immediate aftermath, representatives of France and Germany (who are among parties to the agreement) immediately cautioned that the deal should be kept in place, also reaffirming their commitment to it.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) also repeated its confirmation that Tehran is not violating its obligations. EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini noted that the 2015 deal is "not a bilateral agreement, it does not belong to any single country and it is not up to any single country to terminate it."
Moscow condemned Trump's refusal to adhere to the Iran nuclear deal, saying that the move poses a threat to international security. "Such policy... in fact deals a heavy blow to the global non-proliferation efforts," Mikhail Ulyanov, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry's Department on Non-proliferation and Arms Control, said.
These concerns appear to have fallen on deaf ears, since on Monday Trump noted that a total termination of the Iran nuclear deal was a very real possibility. Lieutenant Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Hossein Salami said Washington has long sought to isolate Iran from the international community, but the American leader's recent comments have had the opposite effect, isolating Washington from rest from the world.
Speaking at a gathering of IRGC forces in Tehran on Wednesday, Brigadier General Salami referred to US hostile moves against the Islamic Republic over the past four decades, saying all of those moves had ended in failure, Tasnim reported.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif noted last week that Trump's decision not to re-certify the 2015 nuclear treaty will only cripple Washington's own credibility as "nobody else will trust any US administration to engage in any long-term negotiation because the length of any commitment ... with any US administration would be the remainder of the term of that president."
The landmark treaty was negotiated in summer 2015 by Russia, France, the US, China, the United Kingdom and Germany - as well as Iran. Under the terms of the deal, in exchange for the gradual lifting of sanctions, Tehran agreed to reduce the number of its uranium-enrichment centrifuges by two-thirds, cap its enrichment below the level needed for weapons-grade material, reduce its enriched uranium stockpile by 98 percent and allow international inspections.
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As nuclear threat mushrooms, experts group says situation worse than Cold War - By Judah Ari Gross - https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-nuclear-threat-mushrooms-group-says-situation-worse-than-cold-war/
At anti-nuke Luxembourg Forum's annual confab, experts discuss Iran deal, North Korea, India-Pakistan conflict, but most fear deteriorating Russia-US relationship
Dozens of experts and former senior officials from around the world met in the French capital last week to discuss the threat of nuclear proliferation, something they believe is ignored despite the dire situation and - according to some - worse than it was during the Cold War.
The Iran deal, the risk posed by North Korea and the ever-present potential that the two atomic powers India and Pakistan will go to war were deemed the most pressing threats at the 10th anniversary conference of the International Luxembourg Forum on Preventing Nuclear Catastrophe.
But they were not seen as the most dangerous. That distinction belonged to the deteriorating ties between United States and Russia, which possess more nuclear weapons than every other country combined, several times over. (The US and Russia each have approximately 7,000 warheads. France, with the next largest stockpile, has about 300, according to the Federation of American Scientists.)
The Luxembourg Forum, led by Russian Jewish magnate Viatcheslav Moshe Kantor, was founded a decade ago and meets each year in world capitals to discuss how best to advance its cause of nuclear disarmament. The group, made up of experts in the field of nuclear physics, diplomacy and security, met on October 9 and 10 in Paris's Four Seasons hotel.
These experts - many of them former officials from the US, Russia, Israel, the UK and South Korea - warned that unlike during the Cold War, when the threat of nuclear war was immediate and apparent, world leaders and their constituents are less cognizant of the risk today and do not have the mechanisms in place to prevent such a conflict.
In particular, William Perry, who served as US secretary of defense under Bill Clinton and held a number of security-related positions in the decades prior, stressed that today there was a significant threat of nations "blundering" into nuclear war.
"Have we forgotten the Cuban missile crisis?" Perry rhetorically asked the conference.
The former defense secretary recalled a number of near misses between the US and Russia during the Cold War, when human or machine error nearly set off nuclear war.
He warned that today the same could happen again between the US and Russia, India and Pakistan, or North and South Korea.
"We could have the same number of casualties as all of World War II, only these would happen in six hours instead of six years," he said.
Comments reportedly made by US President Donald Trump about dramatically increasing the number of nuclear weapons in the American arsenal also raised concerns about the status of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, a decades-old international agreement meant to curb the development, testing and use of nuclear bombs.
Yet the meeting in Paris was overshadowed by discussion over the Iran nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, ahead of US President Donald Trump's decision last Friday to not recertify it, a move that potentially imperils the agreement.
This recertification process is required by a provision in a 2015 US law according to which the president needs to inform Congress every three months if the Islamic Republic is adhering to the terms of the agreement in exchange for broad international relief from oil, trade and financial sanctions. By refusing to do so, Trump allows the US to pass new sanctions on Iran, though there have not yet been moves to do so.
The international forum was unanimously opposed to dissolving the deal, with some members acting thoroughly flabbergasted by the notion, seeing no value whatsoever in scrapping it.
"No one pays and all gain" from the JCPOA, said Hans Blix, the former director-general of the International Atomic Energy Association.
Tony Blair, who spoke on the first day of the conference, acknowledged that there was some legitimate criticism of the deal, but said the "sensible thing to do" was to uphold it.
Kantor, who is also president of the European Jewish Congress, similarly argued in favor of the agreement, saying that scrapping it would be "unforgivable."
Trump says he believes that the US can renegotiate the deal to make it last longer and give the IAEA easier access to Iranian military sites. But not everyone shares that belief.
"It is a fallacy that a better agreement can be negotiated. It is a misunderstanding on the part of the president," Perry said.
Speaking to The Times of Israel on the sidelines of the conference, former Israeli national security adviser Uzi Arad said that he suspects the overwhelming support for the deal is not necessarily because of its merits, but due to the drawn-out fight for it.
After such an extended battle for the JCPOA, its proponents now have to stand behind it fully, even if it's not necessarily optimal, Arad said.
The ongoing spat between the United States and North Korea - or, more specifically, US President Donald Trump and North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un - was another frequent topic of conversation at the two-day conference.
Perry said he was "appalled" by the level of discourse between the two heads of state, with Trump derisively referring to Un as "rocket man," and Un firing back by calling Trump a "dotard."
There was general consensus that the tension between North Korea and the US needed to be resolved diplomatically, due to the tremendous potential cost of life that would come from a military exchange. There was, however, disagreement over what the terms and goals of these talks should be.
Some advocated an exchange in which North Korea would halt all nuclear and ballistic missile tests, after which the US would stop sanctions. But James Acton, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, argued against this "all or nothing" approach in favor of a "less for less" model, under which Pyongyang would scale down its tests and military exercises and the US would decrease the sanctions proportionally.
Most of the attendees saw Beijing, North Korea's main trading partner, as being the key to these negotiations.
Byungki Kim, a South Korean professor of international relations, said if China were to put pressure on the country, it would force them to enter talks with the United States.
"Turn off the gas for three months, make it hurt. Then turn it back on, and they'll come to the negotiating table," Kim told the Forum.
However, the lone Chinese representative - Zhenqiang Pan, an analyst with no official government - said that the general view in his country is that the conflict is between the US and North Korea so China does not have direct responsibility for it.
"China can be a mediator. It has some leverage [over North Korea], but it's limited," Pan said.
In India and Pakistan, two nuclear armed nations engaged in an extended, simmering conflict over territorial and ethnic disputes, the Luxembourg Forum saw the most feasible chance for atomic warfare.
The two countries have maintained tense relations for decades. This comes, in part, from both nations claiming the Kashmir region as their own, as well as from differences in the countries' religions - Pakistan is majority Muslim, while India is majority Hindu.
Perry, the former US defense secretary, showed the forum a video that his foundation produced about a scenario in which the two countries fire atomic weapons at one another.
In the animated video, a group of Pakistani terrorists carry out an attack in India, prompting an Indian army retaliation. The military exchanges escalate quickly, culminating in the launching of nuclear weapons.
While the Forum was unanimous in identifying India and Pakistan as being likely locations of a future nuclear war, no specific proposals were made to disarm the two countries or resolve the conflict between them.
At the close of the conference, the delegates set to work writing a document with their proposals.
Once this document is prepared, it will be published by the Luxembourg Forum and the attendees are meant to present the findings to their home countries.
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The Calm Before the Storm - By Matt Ward - http://www.raptureready.com/2017/10/14/the-calm-before-the-storm/
North Korea is being manipulated masterfully by Iran. Odd bedfellows though they are, Iran and North Korea are well established allies, and current events in East Asia cannot be separated from events occurring in Syria and the Middle East at the same time.
It is an open secret that Iran and North Korea have more than merely a diplomatically cordial relationship. They actively share common strategic goals, and these shared goals have brought them increasingly close together. As recently as last month, a delegation from Pyongyang, led by parliamentary speaker Kim Yong Nam, who ranks as the second most important person in the North Korean hierarchical system, spent ten days in Tehran as guests of the government. While there, the North Koreans met with the heads of the Iranian army and intelligence agencies, as well as Iranian leaders in industry. The discussions across the board, from military to industrial talks, were identical as to how they could deepen mutual cooperation across all spheres to enable both parties to meet their wider strategic goals.
On the surface, the relationship they share seems to be an odd one; Iran is a Shiite theocracy who views themselves as the only true defenders of Islam, while North Korea is a virulently atheistic regime. Neither Iran nor North Korea share commonalities ethnically; neither do they share any borders. What they do share, most importantly, is commonality in their geopolitical objectives.
In allying itself with North Korea, even though they are so diametrically opposed in all other spheres, Iran has been able to continue to develop its own regional hegemonic and nuclear ambitions. Iran is using North Korea because the relationship allows them to progress more rapidly towards fulfilling their own nuclear ambitions, and because it furthers their own dominance in the Middle East, especially in Syria. Being in a relationship with North Korea has allowed them to manipulate events in East Asia, so as to take the pressure off themselves at home.
What makes this alliance particularly robust and functional is that both Iran and North Korea are also bonded by a mutual loathing for America and Americanism. Hating America actively binds them both together.
In real terms Iranian - North Korean cooperation focuses primarily in two areas: nuclear weapons development and ballistic missile technology. This cooperation is longstanding. Michael Green, former senior director for Asia at the National Security Council, relates that during nuclear talks held with the United States as long ago as March 2003, the head of the North Korean delegation confirmed that Pyongyang had a "nuclear deterrent" and threatened to "expand," "demonstrate," and "transfer" the deterrent unless the United States ended its hostile policy [1]. Many at the time believed this reference of "transferring" this "nuclear deterrent" was in reference to Iran.
Iran seeks North Korean cooperation in the development of its nuclear weapons program, and North Korea seeks Iranian help in developing its Intercontinental Ballistic Missile systems. North Korea has the bomb, and Iran has the reliable means to deliver it; so they are helping each other by swapping their "know how [2].
This is where the Presidency of Barack Obama will come back to haunt this world, sooner rather than later. Obama, towards the end of his second term, released significant funds to the Iranian regime, and loosened what had previously been a tight system of sanctions against Iran, hailing it at the time as a mark of the success of the Iranian Nuclear Accord. It was a fallacy.
Suddenly Iran, flush with cash, used the money to buy considerable amounts of weaponry from North Korea, thereby providing Pyongyang with the financial resources it so desperately needed to ignore the international sanctions that were being arrayed against it. More importantly, loosening sanctions and releasing funds to Iran indirectly allowed North Korea to continue funding its own nuclear weapons program, a program now reaching fulfillment in our own day [3,4].
Relaxing sanctions has also meant that it is exceptionally difficult for the United Nations, or other leading international agencies like the IAEA, to detect the subtle cooperation and financial transactions that have been taking place between Iran and North Korea, all which might indicate breaches of international accords or giveaway tell-tale signals indicating their own nuclear threshold status. All thanks to Barack Obama.
Iran has not been standing idly by while the world has been captivated by North Korea. Last week, on September 22nd, Iran released a film in which it claimed to have test-fired a new, highly advanced ballistic missile system. This new weapon, the Khoramshahr, is estimated to have a range that exceeds 2,000km, finally putting all of Israel well within range.
The Khoramshahr can, according to the Iranian release, carry multiple warheads, and is also - unlike other crude variations - exceptionally accurate, because it has advanced live-video guidance systems contained within its nose cone. This means that the missile could be manually guided onto a target remotely. The Khoramshahr, if the release is true, would constitute an entirely different level of threat to Israel than any that has come before.
Yet despite this obvious breach of the Iranian Nuclear Agreement, sidetracked by the burgeoning crisis occurring in East Asia, it has barely even been covered by the main news media in the West. Indeed, the US military has even asserted that this launch did not take place and has immediately dropped the matter, dismissing it out of hand. But this is not the view the Israeli intelligence services and the Israeli military take; they could not disagree more with the US assessment. They believe the test was a legitimate one, and that a threshold is about to be crossed by Iran, a threshold that may force them to soon take action.
Israel is fast approaching the point where strong speeches voicing condemnation against Iranian encroachments into Syria, or about their weapons programs, are not enough. The danger to Israel is becoming too great. Very soon Iran is going to reach the point, as will North Korea, where they actually will have a reliable and deliverable nuclear weapons system. When that point is reached, Iran will become the biggest existential threat to the continued existence of Israel as a nation state since its founding in 1948.
At this point the only silver lining is Donald Trump. Unlike Obama's misguided, and some might say negligent approach to the Iranian threat, the indications are that President Trump is about to embark upon a different approach. There is increasing speculation, fueled by the President himself, that he is about to take some form of definitive action; either by challenging the North Korean nuclear program directly or in decertifying the Iranian nuclear deal.
The world is bracing itself for what is about to come; and much of what may shortly follow is entirely unpredictable. But about one thing we can be certain: If Trump does end the Iranian Nuclear Accord or takes any direct form of action against North Korea, this really could be the calm before the storm. A real Pandora's box may be about to be opened.
The threat was issued at the United Nations where North Korean Deputy U.N. Ambassador Kim In Ryong prepared remarks for a talk on nuclear weapons at a U.N. committee. He ended up not reading the threat out loud.
“As long as one does not take part in the U.S. military actions against the DPRK (North Korea), we have no intention to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against any other country,†read the North Korean ambassador’s prepared remarks, according to Reuters.
“The entire U.S. mainland is within our firing range and if the U.S. dares to invade our sacred territory even an inch it will not escape our severe punishment in any part of the globe,†the statement said.
The confrontation between the U.S. and North Korea has peaked following a number nuclear missile tests threatening U.S. allies in the region and hostile exchanges between President Donald Trump and North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un.
Kim told a U.N. disarmament committee that his country is the only state threatened by “such an extreme and direct nuclear threat" from the U.S. and accused the U.S. government of trying to stage a “secret operation aimed at the removal of our supreme leadership.â€
“Unless the hostile policy and the nuclear threat of the U.S. is thoroughly eradicated, we will never put our nuclear weapons and ballistic rockets on the negotiation table under any circumstance,†the North Korean official told the committee.
Syria fires missiles at Israeli Air Force flights as Russian Defense Minister heads to Israel -
Syria's surface-to-air SA-5 missile attack on Israeli reconnaissance flights over Lebanon on Monday, Oct. 16, was a demonstration that Damascus, like Tehran, is not totally dependent on Moscow.
It was the first time that Syrian SA-5 missiles had been launched against Israeli flights over Lebanon, although Damascus is sure that it would not curtail the air force's freedom of action in the skies of Lebanon and Syria
It was staged as Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, one of President Vladimir Putin's closest associates, was on his way to a visit in Israel. This visit had long been planned, but it gained considerable weight by its occurrence three days after President Donald Trump unveiled his new strategy for Iran, and on the day that armed hostilities over Kirkuk erupted in northern Iraq, when the Iraqi army and Shiite militias under Iranian Revolutionary Guards command attacked the Kurdish Peshmerga.
The timing also added extra significance to the Syrian missile fire on Israeli planes, especially after the recent merger of Syrian and Russian air commands at the Russian Hmeimim Air Base in Latakia.
Gen. Shoigu was therefore briefed on the incident in real time without waiting for an Israeli update.
DEBKAfile's intelligence sources have strong grounds to assume that Damascus and Tehran were closely coordinated in their actions in the last 24 hours. The Assad regime was sending a message that, notwithstanding massive Russian military assistance, Syria was not totally dependent on Moscow and would not hesitate to act alone if it so decided.
Our sources added that Syrian ground-to-air missiles were last fired against Israel flights on March 17, when they were heading back home from a bombing mission. The Syrian battery waited for a nod from Russia's Syrian command before the launch, but, by then, the Israel jets were over Israel's Sea of Galilee. This time, Damascus did not delay and fired the SA-5 missile without asking for permission.
IDF sources report that the four Israel missiles fired in its retaliatory air strike Monday destroyed the Syrian battery.
Israel destroys anti-aircraft battery in Syria after it fires at IDF jets - By Judah Ari Gross -
Israeli recon planes were flying over Lebanon when Syrian SA-5 surface-to-air missile targeted them, army says
Israeli Air Force jets attacked an anti-aircraft battery well inside Syria on Monday morning, after the surface-to-air system launched a missile at a different plane over the skies of Lebanon, the army said.
A military spokesperson said that "a number" of Israeli planes were flying over Lebanon as part of a "routine reconnaissance mission" on early Monday morning, when they came under attack by the Syrian anti-aircraft battery.
The targeted Israeli reconnaissance aircraft were not hit by the Syrian interceptor missile and returned to base safely, according to IDF spokesperson Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus.
He would not elaborate on the number or type of aircraft, nor on where exactly they were flying over Lebanon, the home country of the Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorist group.
A few hours later, the IAF sent out a separate sortie to attack the anti-aircraft battery - an SA-5 model - which was located some 50 kilometers east of Damascus, Conricus said.
The Russian military, which is allied with Syria and operates in the war-torn country, was notified "in real-time" ahead of the Israeli airstrike on the SA-5 battery, the spokesperson said.
Conricus said that while the army will continue to defend itself, it was not looking to "destablize" the situation with Syria.
"Preserving the relative stability is a common interest," the lieutenant colonel said.
The Israeli jets launched four bombs at the Syrian anti-aircraft system. According to an initial IDF assessment, the strike destroyed the SA-5 battery, or at least "incapacitated" it, Conricus said.
The IDF believes the Syrian battery that was struck was the same one that fired at the reconnaissance planes.
The SA-5, also known as the S-200, is a Russian-designed anti-aircraft system that has been in use since the late 1960s.
The IDF said it holds Syrian dictator Bashar Assad's regime responsible for the fire.
There was no immediate confirmation of the Israeli strike in Syrian state media.
According to the official government Sana news outlet, Monday was "Air Force and Air Defense Day" for Syria.
The incident came hours before Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu was due to meet with his Israeli counterpart Avigdor Liberman in Tel Aviv.
When Shoigu arrives in Tel Aviv "he will get a full briefing on the matter," Conricus said.
The spokesperson acknowledged the sensitivity of the timing of the incident and the potential for it to cause tension during Shoigu's visit, but said the military was "confident it won't influence anything else."
"This was obviously not a preplanned event," he added.
In order to avoid unwanted clashes with the Russian troops in Syria, Jerusalem and Moscow have developed a communication system.
Israeli officials do not typically discuss the full extent of the coordination between the two militaries, but stress that the IDF does not seek Russian permission before carrying out airstrikes in Syria.
In general, Israel's operation in Syria consist of bombing sites that are used to develop, store and transport advanced weaponry to the Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorist group, making Monday's strike something of an anomaly.
According to Conricus, this was the first time that Israeli aircraft were targeted by Syrian anti-aircraft missiles over Lebanese airspace since the start of the Syrian civil war. However, it was not the first time that IAF jets had been attacked by an SA-5 system.
In March, Assad's military fired multiple interceptor missiles from an SA-5 system at Israeli jets flying over Jordan on their way back from a bombing run in Syria. The IAF jets were unharmed, but one Syrian missile seemed to be on a trajectory that took it toward an Israeli community and so it was shot down by the Arrow 2 air defense system, in the first reported use of the system.
However, in that case, Israel did not respond to the anti-aircraft attack on the IAF jets with a retaliatory airstrike on the SA-5 battery that launched it.
Syria warns of 'serious repercussions' following Israeli airstrike - By Anna Ahronheim -
Israeli jets destroyed Assad regime SA-5 anti-aircraft battery after it fired on Israeli reconnaissance planes.
The Syrian army has warned of "dangerous consequences" following an airstrike by Israel on a regime SA-5 anti-aircraft battery east of the capital of Damascus after it fired a surface-to-air missile at Israeli jets.
Syria's SANA state news agency reported that the Assad regime "warned of the dangerous repercussions of Israel's repeated aggression attempts, stressing Syria's determination to continue its war against the terrorist groups, Israel's arm in the region."
According SANA, the Syrian air defense "directly hit one of the jets, forcing the enemy to retreat," contradicting Israeli military claims that all planes had returned safely from the operation.
The SA-5 missile battery, which was stationed some 50 kilometers east of the Syrian capital, fired at Israeli jets that were on a routine aerial reconnaissance flight in Lebanese airspace, IDF Spokesman Brig. Gen. Ronen Manelis stated.
Israel believes that the Syrians fired towards the Israeli jets at 10 a.m. Monday morning after thinking that they intended to attack. All Israeli aircraft returned to base safely and a few hours later responded by launching four bombs towards the same battery, destroying it.
"We see the Syrian regime as responsible and see these missiles as a clear Syrian provocation, and it will not be accepted," Manelis stated, adding that while Israel has no intention to enter into the civil war in Syria, Israel will react to all provocations and is prepared for the possibility of retaliation.
"If anti-aircraft fire is being carried out for any military activity, we will respond as we did now," he said on a call with journalists, adding that Russia was updated about the incident in real time and that it will be brought up during the visit of the Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
Moscow intervened in the Syrian conflict in September 2015, and officials from Israel and Russia meet regularly to discuss the deconfliction mechanism system implemented over Syria to prevent accidental clashes between the two militaries.
Shoigu will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman and other senior officials to discuss the Jewish State's ongoing concerns regarding Iran's entrenchment in Syria and the transfer of advanced weapons to Hezbollah by Tehran through Damascus.
Israel rarely comments on foreign reports of military activity in Syria but has publicly admitted to having struck over 100 Hezbollah targets in Syria, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying that strikes will continue when "we have information and operational feasibility."
Netanyahu commented on the attack in Syria on Monday afternoon, hours after it was announced by the IDF.
"Our policy is clear," he said in a statement. "Anyone who tries to harm us will be hit. Today they tried to hit our planes, which is unacceptable to us."
Netanyahu said the IAF acted with "precision and speed" and "destroyed what needed to be destroyed. We will continue to act as is needed to protect Israel's security."
During an IAF operation in March to strike a Hezbollah arms convoy in Syria, regime air defense fired three surface-to-air missiles towards IAF jets. It was the most serious incident between the two countries since the war in Syria began six years ago.
Following that incident, Liberman warned against any further launching of missiles by the Syrian regime, threatening to destroy all Syrian air defenses.
According to the IDF, the SA-5 missile battery destroyed by Israeli jets on Monday was the same that fired at Israeli jets in March, prompting Israel make use of its Arrow anti-missile system for the first time. The Syrians claimed at the time that one Israeli jet had been shot down and another damaged, a claim strongly denied by Israel.
The Arrow system, which has been operational since 2000, was designed to intercept heavy, long-range ground-to-ground ballistic missiles. Updates to the system have expanded its capabilities to also intercept medium-range missiles and rockets.
In January, the Israel Air Force received its first Arrow 3 interceptor, the most advanced Arrow system which is designed to provide ultimate air defense by intercepting ballistic missiles when they are still outside the Earth's atmosphere.
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Russia sandwiched in Syria between Israel, Iran - Maxim A. Suchkov - http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/10/russia-shoigu-visit-israel-syria-iran-military-liberman.html#ixzz4vy7yV4Oo
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu paid a two-day visit this week to Israel - his first as the top Russian military commander. On Oct. 16, Shoigu met in Tel Aviv with Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman and the Israel Defense Forces' Chief of General Staff Gadi Eizenkot. On Tuesday, he was hosted by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Hours before Shoigu landed in Tel Aviv, the Israeli air force destroyed a Syrian army anti-aircraft battery in an alleged retaliation to Damascus firing a missile at Israeli planes while they were on a reconnaissance mission over neighboring Lebanon. Israel said it informed Russia of the incident "in real-time mode" and "comprehensively briefed" Shoigu to alleviate a potentially negative response from Moscow.
Unlike Shoigu's snap visit to Damascus in September, which was shrouded in mystery, on this trip to Israel he was clear about his purpose: "Besides the military and military-technical cooperation [between our countries], the main issue remains the fight against terrorism, as well as the [general] situation in the region. Separately, we'd like to discuss everything that has to do with Syria. [Russia's] operation there is coming to its end. There are several points that require urgent solutions and discussion of further prospects. ... There is a lot to talk about," said Shoigu in his opening statement at the meeting with Liberman.
In response, Liberman said Israel "values its relations with Russia for the sincere, candid dialogue [between the two]. ... I'm positive that this is the way to solve all the problems." He spoke first in Russian and then repeated his remarks in Hebrew.
Shoigu's allusions to military-technical cooperation imply the interest Israel apparently has in purchasing Russia's heavy infantry fighting vehicle, the BMPT Terminator. Russia reportedly deployed the vehicle in Syria for field trials against the Islamic State (IS) and it came in handy for urban fights. Commenting on the prospects of the deal between Russia and Israel, Andrei Frolov, a military analyst and editor-in-chief of the Russian journal Eksport Vooruzheny (Arms Export), told Al-Monitor, "The Israelis have never directly bought arms from Russia. There were a few projects on the modernization of Soviet military equipment in third countries, but never a direct purchase - unlike the Russians, who did buy weapons from Israel. If the sale were to happen, it would be emblematic, yet we shouldn't be overestimating the financial or military significance of the [potential] deal."
What was more important in the Shoigu-Liberman talks was the military coordination between Moscow and Tel Aviv at the current stage, as well as how the two states are going to approach Syria and Iran in the long run.
Shoigu's statements that the Russian campaign in Syria is "coming to its end" triggered a flurry of speculation over the future course of Moscow's policies in the country. Frolov said the remarks - the way they were formulated - sound rather abstract: "It's hard to tell whether it really is coming to its end. One needs to know the exact initial [operational] goals to be able to make precise conclusions."
It's hardly the first time Russia has proclaimed the end was near. In February, Shoigu said Russian troops would be coming home. In March, President Vladimir Putin announced the goals in Syria "were completed" and indeed ordered the drawdown of Russia's main forces - but the Russian campaign is still going. In late August, Shoigu stated the war in Syria had reached a "de facto" end. In September, at a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Putin reiterated the idea, saying, "Conditions for peace have been created in Syria." Last week, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that "92% of the Syrian territory was freed from [IS]." So if the goal was "to defeat the terrorists," as Putin proclaimed when Russia entered Syria two years ago, the mission is indeed coming to an end. Yet Russia is facing an array of other challenges, including complications over the fate of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Iran's growing presence.
Iran was especially large on Shoigu's agenda during the meeting with Netanyahu. Following the encounter, the Israeli prime minister wrote on his Twitter page, "Iran is attempting to establish itself militarily in Syria. I told the Russian DM: Iran needs to understand that Israel will not allow this." Russia's reputable Kommersant newspaper cites its sources in the Defense Ministry as saying the Shoigu-led delegation shared with the Israelis details of Russia's air force operations in Syria and Iran's contribution to the fight against terrorism in that country. Moscow also provided some information on the way the four de-escalation zones in Syria will function. Israel opposes the idea of Iran being one of the intermediaries in the process, but Russia is set to maintain the current framework.
Russia's support for Hezbollah has also been on the agenda for the two parties, with the Russians supposedly assuring the Israelis that their dealings with the group don't go beyond targeted planning of certain operations in Syria and that Moscow doesn't supply it with arms.
Russian diplomacy takes pride in its flexibility and openness to different players in the Middle East. From Assad and Tehran to the Syrian opposition and Tel Aviv, from Doha to Riyadh, from Turks to Kurds and from Libya's Gen. Khalifa Hifter to Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, Moscow tries to engage virtually all stakeholders. This is no easy mission, and the military incident between Israel and Syria on the day of Shoigu's visit has exposed the objective limits of Russia's power to keep conflict-bound actors apart.
Given Israel's role in the region, its military power and its willingness to use it, it is critical for Putin to continue the current level of communication with Netanyahu to ensure Russia's own presence is immune from any Israeli assaults. But it is also clear Israel is determined to stop Iran's growing presence near Israel's borders. At the same time, Tehran is resolved to expand and solidify its presence. Moscow doesn't see that situation as its own fight and is working to dodge potential complications of ending up on either side.
Israel has been rather loyal to Russia's military presence - and realizes its own gains from it - and Iran has been crucial to Russia on the ground in Syria. But Russia's goals in Syria aren't ultimately about either Israel or Iran. Moscow is, however, wary of each party trying to work Russia's presence to the detriment of the other. For instance, Russian media outlets have recently raised questions about Iran's intentions when it changed the location of an Iran-to-Hezbollah arms transfer point from the border with Lebanon to central Syria, closer to Palmyra. As a result of that change, Israel will have to fly deep into Syrian territory to make its bombing raids on the transfer point and could at some point clash with Russian air forces or harm Russian advisers thought to be stationed at Palmyra.
Such moves are likely to happen more often and represent a long-term challenge to Moscow. Russia will need to sit down with Israel and seriously talk about whether Israel's interests can be squared with Russia's interests, and whether Moscow really has any leverage over Tehran, whether in Syria or beyond. Shoigu's visit appears to be important in this very regard. Similar conversations need to be held with Iran - and that's the likely goal of Putin's visit to Tehran in early November.
Missile program will 'expand & continue' despite US pressure - Iran's Revolutionary Guards -
Iran will not yield to pressure from the US and is determined to "expand and continue" its missile program, the country's elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) have said.
"Iran's ballistic missile program will expand and it will continue with more speed in reaction to Trump's hostile approach towards this revolutionary organization (the Guards)," the force said in a statement published by Tasnim, as cited by Reuters.
On Friday, President Trump opted to not re-certify the nuclear deal made in 2015 by the previous administration of Barack Obama and world powers including Russia, France, Germany, the UK, and China. Instead, the American leader passed the matter to Congress. The move immediately triggered an outcry from other signatories.
On Monday, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said he hoped "that Congress does not put this accord in jeopardy."
In the immediate aftermath, representatives of France and Germany (who are among parties to the agreement) immediately cautioned that the deal should be kept in place, also reaffirming their commitment to it.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) also repeated its confirmation that Tehran is not violating its obligations. EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini noted that the 2015 deal is "not a bilateral agreement, it does not belong to any single country and it is not up to any single country to terminate it."
Moscow condemned Trump's refusal to adhere to the Iran nuclear deal, saying that the move poses a threat to international security. "Such policy... in fact deals a heavy blow to the global non-proliferation efforts," Mikhail Ulyanov, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry's Department on Non-proliferation and Arms Control, said.
These concerns appear to have fallen on deaf ears, since on Monday Trump noted that a total termination of the Iran nuclear deal was a very real possibility. Lieutenant Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Hossein Salami said Washington has long sought to isolate Iran from the international community, but the American leader's recent comments have had the opposite effect, isolating Washington from rest from the world.
Speaking at a gathering of IRGC forces in Tehran on Wednesday, Brigadier General Salami referred to US hostile moves against the Islamic Republic over the past four decades, saying all of those moves had ended in failure, Tasnim reported.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif noted last week that Trump's decision not to re-certify the 2015 nuclear treaty will only cripple Washington's own credibility as "nobody else will trust any US administration to engage in any long-term negotiation because the length of any commitment ... with any US administration would be the remainder of the term of that president."
The landmark treaty was negotiated in summer 2015 by Russia, France, the US, China, the United Kingdom and Germany - as well as Iran. Under the terms of the deal, in exchange for the gradual lifting of sanctions, Tehran agreed to reduce the number of its uranium-enrichment centrifuges by two-thirds, cap its enrichment below the level needed for weapons-grade material, reduce its enriched uranium stockpile by 98 percent and allow international inspections.
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As nuclear threat mushrooms, experts group says situation worse than Cold War - By Judah Ari Gross - https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-nuclear-threat-mushrooms-group-says-situation-worse-than-cold-war/
At anti-nuke Luxembourg Forum's annual confab, experts discuss Iran deal, North Korea, India-Pakistan conflict, but most fear deteriorating Russia-US relationship
Dozens of experts and former senior officials from around the world met in the French capital last week to discuss the threat of nuclear proliferation, something they believe is ignored despite the dire situation and - according to some - worse than it was during the Cold War.
The Iran deal, the risk posed by North Korea and the ever-present potential that the two atomic powers India and Pakistan will go to war were deemed the most pressing threats at the 10th anniversary conference of the International Luxembourg Forum on Preventing Nuclear Catastrophe.
But they were not seen as the most dangerous. That distinction belonged to the deteriorating ties between United States and Russia, which possess more nuclear weapons than every other country combined, several times over. (The US and Russia each have approximately 7,000 warheads. France, with the next largest stockpile, has about 300, according to the Federation of American Scientists.)
The Luxembourg Forum, led by Russian Jewish magnate Viatcheslav Moshe Kantor, was founded a decade ago and meets each year in world capitals to discuss how best to advance its cause of nuclear disarmament. The group, made up of experts in the field of nuclear physics, diplomacy and security, met on October 9 and 10 in Paris's Four Seasons hotel.
These experts - many of them former officials from the US, Russia, Israel, the UK and South Korea - warned that unlike during the Cold War, when the threat of nuclear war was immediate and apparent, world leaders and their constituents are less cognizant of the risk today and do not have the mechanisms in place to prevent such a conflict.
In particular, William Perry, who served as US secretary of defense under Bill Clinton and held a number of security-related positions in the decades prior, stressed that today there was a significant threat of nations "blundering" into nuclear war.
"Have we forgotten the Cuban missile crisis?" Perry rhetorically asked the conference.
The former defense secretary recalled a number of near misses between the US and Russia during the Cold War, when human or machine error nearly set off nuclear war.
He warned that today the same could happen again between the US and Russia, India and Pakistan, or North and South Korea.
"We could have the same number of casualties as all of World War II, only these would happen in six hours instead of six years," he said.
Comments reportedly made by US President Donald Trump about dramatically increasing the number of nuclear weapons in the American arsenal also raised concerns about the status of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, a decades-old international agreement meant to curb the development, testing and use of nuclear bombs.
Yet the meeting in Paris was overshadowed by discussion over the Iran nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, ahead of US President Donald Trump's decision last Friday to not recertify it, a move that potentially imperils the agreement.
This recertification process is required by a provision in a 2015 US law according to which the president needs to inform Congress every three months if the Islamic Republic is adhering to the terms of the agreement in exchange for broad international relief from oil, trade and financial sanctions. By refusing to do so, Trump allows the US to pass new sanctions on Iran, though there have not yet been moves to do so.
The international forum was unanimously opposed to dissolving the deal, with some members acting thoroughly flabbergasted by the notion, seeing no value whatsoever in scrapping it.
"No one pays and all gain" from the JCPOA, said Hans Blix, the former director-general of the International Atomic Energy Association.
Tony Blair, who spoke on the first day of the conference, acknowledged that there was some legitimate criticism of the deal, but said the "sensible thing to do" was to uphold it.
Kantor, who is also president of the European Jewish Congress, similarly argued in favor of the agreement, saying that scrapping it would be "unforgivable."
Trump says he believes that the US can renegotiate the deal to make it last longer and give the IAEA easier access to Iranian military sites. But not everyone shares that belief.
"It is a fallacy that a better agreement can be negotiated. It is a misunderstanding on the part of the president," Perry said.
Speaking to The Times of Israel on the sidelines of the conference, former Israeli national security adviser Uzi Arad said that he suspects the overwhelming support for the deal is not necessarily because of its merits, but due to the drawn-out fight for it.
After such an extended battle for the JCPOA, its proponents now have to stand behind it fully, even if it's not necessarily optimal, Arad said.
The ongoing spat between the United States and North Korea - or, more specifically, US President Donald Trump and North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un - was another frequent topic of conversation at the two-day conference.
Perry said he was "appalled" by the level of discourse between the two heads of state, with Trump derisively referring to Un as "rocket man," and Un firing back by calling Trump a "dotard."
There was general consensus that the tension between North Korea and the US needed to be resolved diplomatically, due to the tremendous potential cost of life that would come from a military exchange. There was, however, disagreement over what the terms and goals of these talks should be.
Some advocated an exchange in which North Korea would halt all nuclear and ballistic missile tests, after which the US would stop sanctions. But James Acton, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, argued against this "all or nothing" approach in favor of a "less for less" model, under which Pyongyang would scale down its tests and military exercises and the US would decrease the sanctions proportionally.
Most of the attendees saw Beijing, North Korea's main trading partner, as being the key to these negotiations.
Byungki Kim, a South Korean professor of international relations, said if China were to put pressure on the country, it would force them to enter talks with the United States.
"Turn off the gas for three months, make it hurt. Then turn it back on, and they'll come to the negotiating table," Kim told the Forum.
However, the lone Chinese representative - Zhenqiang Pan, an analyst with no official government - said that the general view in his country is that the conflict is between the US and North Korea so China does not have direct responsibility for it.
"China can be a mediator. It has some leverage [over North Korea], but it's limited," Pan said.
In India and Pakistan, two nuclear armed nations engaged in an extended, simmering conflict over territorial and ethnic disputes, the Luxembourg Forum saw the most feasible chance for atomic warfare.
The two countries have maintained tense relations for decades. This comes, in part, from both nations claiming the Kashmir region as their own, as well as from differences in the countries' religions - Pakistan is majority Muslim, while India is majority Hindu.
Perry, the former US defense secretary, showed the forum a video that his foundation produced about a scenario in which the two countries fire atomic weapons at one another.
In the animated video, a group of Pakistani terrorists carry out an attack in India, prompting an Indian army retaliation. The military exchanges escalate quickly, culminating in the launching of nuclear weapons.
While the Forum was unanimous in identifying India and Pakistan as being likely locations of a future nuclear war, no specific proposals were made to disarm the two countries or resolve the conflict between them.
At the close of the conference, the delegates set to work writing a document with their proposals.
Once this document is prepared, it will be published by the Luxembourg Forum and the attendees are meant to present the findings to their home countries.
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The Calm Before the Storm - By Matt Ward - http://www.raptureready.com/2017/10/14/the-calm-before-the-storm/
North Korea is being manipulated masterfully by Iran. Odd bedfellows though they are, Iran and North Korea are well established allies, and current events in East Asia cannot be separated from events occurring in Syria and the Middle East at the same time.
It is an open secret that Iran and North Korea have more than merely a diplomatically cordial relationship. They actively share common strategic goals, and these shared goals have brought them increasingly close together. As recently as last month, a delegation from Pyongyang, led by parliamentary speaker Kim Yong Nam, who ranks as the second most important person in the North Korean hierarchical system, spent ten days in Tehran as guests of the government. While there, the North Koreans met with the heads of the Iranian army and intelligence agencies, as well as Iranian leaders in industry. The discussions across the board, from military to industrial talks, were identical as to how they could deepen mutual cooperation across all spheres to enable both parties to meet their wider strategic goals.
On the surface, the relationship they share seems to be an odd one; Iran is a Shiite theocracy who views themselves as the only true defenders of Islam, while North Korea is a virulently atheistic regime. Neither Iran nor North Korea share commonalities ethnically; neither do they share any borders. What they do share, most importantly, is commonality in their geopolitical objectives.
In allying itself with North Korea, even though they are so diametrically opposed in all other spheres, Iran has been able to continue to develop its own regional hegemonic and nuclear ambitions. Iran is using North Korea because the relationship allows them to progress more rapidly towards fulfilling their own nuclear ambitions, and because it furthers their own dominance in the Middle East, especially in Syria. Being in a relationship with North Korea has allowed them to manipulate events in East Asia, so as to take the pressure off themselves at home.
What makes this alliance particularly robust and functional is that both Iran and North Korea are also bonded by a mutual loathing for America and Americanism. Hating America actively binds them both together.
In real terms Iranian - North Korean cooperation focuses primarily in two areas: nuclear weapons development and ballistic missile technology. This cooperation is longstanding. Michael Green, former senior director for Asia at the National Security Council, relates that during nuclear talks held with the United States as long ago as March 2003, the head of the North Korean delegation confirmed that Pyongyang had a "nuclear deterrent" and threatened to "expand," "demonstrate," and "transfer" the deterrent unless the United States ended its hostile policy [1]. Many at the time believed this reference of "transferring" this "nuclear deterrent" was in reference to Iran.
Iran seeks North Korean cooperation in the development of its nuclear weapons program, and North Korea seeks Iranian help in developing its Intercontinental Ballistic Missile systems. North Korea has the bomb, and Iran has the reliable means to deliver it; so they are helping each other by swapping their "know how [2].
This is where the Presidency of Barack Obama will come back to haunt this world, sooner rather than later. Obama, towards the end of his second term, released significant funds to the Iranian regime, and loosened what had previously been a tight system of sanctions against Iran, hailing it at the time as a mark of the success of the Iranian Nuclear Accord. It was a fallacy.
Suddenly Iran, flush with cash, used the money to buy considerable amounts of weaponry from North Korea, thereby providing Pyongyang with the financial resources it so desperately needed to ignore the international sanctions that were being arrayed against it. More importantly, loosening sanctions and releasing funds to Iran indirectly allowed North Korea to continue funding its own nuclear weapons program, a program now reaching fulfillment in our own day [3,4].
Relaxing sanctions has also meant that it is exceptionally difficult for the United Nations, or other leading international agencies like the IAEA, to detect the subtle cooperation and financial transactions that have been taking place between Iran and North Korea, all which might indicate breaches of international accords or giveaway tell-tale signals indicating their own nuclear threshold status. All thanks to Barack Obama.
Iran has not been standing idly by while the world has been captivated by North Korea. Last week, on September 22nd, Iran released a film in which it claimed to have test-fired a new, highly advanced ballistic missile system. This new weapon, the Khoramshahr, is estimated to have a range that exceeds 2,000km, finally putting all of Israel well within range.
The Khoramshahr can, according to the Iranian release, carry multiple warheads, and is also - unlike other crude variations - exceptionally accurate, because it has advanced live-video guidance systems contained within its nose cone. This means that the missile could be manually guided onto a target remotely. The Khoramshahr, if the release is true, would constitute an entirely different level of threat to Israel than any that has come before.
Yet despite this obvious breach of the Iranian Nuclear Agreement, sidetracked by the burgeoning crisis occurring in East Asia, it has barely even been covered by the main news media in the West. Indeed, the US military has even asserted that this launch did not take place and has immediately dropped the matter, dismissing it out of hand. But this is not the view the Israeli intelligence services and the Israeli military take; they could not disagree more with the US assessment. They believe the test was a legitimate one, and that a threshold is about to be crossed by Iran, a threshold that may force them to soon take action.
Israel is fast approaching the point where strong speeches voicing condemnation against Iranian encroachments into Syria, or about their weapons programs, are not enough. The danger to Israel is becoming too great. Very soon Iran is going to reach the point, as will North Korea, where they actually will have a reliable and deliverable nuclear weapons system. When that point is reached, Iran will become the biggest existential threat to the continued existence of Israel as a nation state since its founding in 1948.
At this point the only silver lining is Donald Trump. Unlike Obama's misguided, and some might say negligent approach to the Iranian threat, the indications are that President Trump is about to embark upon a different approach. There is increasing speculation, fueled by the President himself, that he is about to take some form of definitive action; either by challenging the North Korean nuclear program directly or in decertifying the Iranian nuclear deal.
The world is bracing itself for what is about to come; and much of what may shortly follow is entirely unpredictable. But about one thing we can be certain: If Trump does end the Iranian Nuclear Accord or takes any direct form of action against North Korea, this really could be the calm before the storm. A real Pandora's box may be about to be opened.
Hamas chief: We won't discuss recognizing Israel, only wiping it out - Dov Lieber -
Yahya Sinwar says 'no one in the universe can disarm us,' likens belief that terror group will relinquish weapons to 'Satan dreaming of heaven'
The Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip on Thursday dismissed US and Israeli demands that it lay down its arms and recognize the Jewish state, saying the terror organization is instead debating "when to wipe out Israel."
The remarks came during a closed roundtable discussion between Yahya Sinwar and Gazan youth about the ongoing reconciliation negotiations with rival Palestinian faction Fatah, to which some media outlets were invited to attend.
"Over is the time Hamas spent discussing recognizing Israel. Now Hamas will discuss when we will wipe out Israel," Sinwar said, according to the Hamas-linked news agency Shehab.
A Hamas spokesperson released a few official quotes from the meeting. The Sinwar comment about discussing "when we will wipe out Israel" was not included in the transcript, which featured the Hamas leader again rejecting disarmament and Israel recognition.
"No one in the universe can disarm us. On the contrary, we will continue to have the power to protect our citizens," Sinwar said, according to the official statement. "No one has the ability to extract from us recognition of the occupation."
Since its inception nearly three decades ago, Hamas has sought to destroy the State of Israel.
Sinwar's comments on Thursday came as much of the international community was scrutinizing the terror organization as it attempts to join the internationally recognized government of the Palestinian Authority, which is controlled by PA President Mahmoud Abbas's party, Fatah.
On Thursday the United States called for Hamas to disarm and renounce violence before being allowed to implement the highly touted unity deal with Fatah.
"Any Palestinian government must unambiguously and explicitly commit to nonviolence, recognize the State of Israel, accept previous agreements and obligations between the parties - including to disarm terrorists - and commit to peaceful negotiations," said White House Mideast peace envoy Jason Greenblatt in a statement released by the US Embassy in Tel Aviv.
"If Hamas is to play any role in a Palestinian government, it must accept these basic requirements," Greenblatt said, in comments later commended by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
One issue that threatens to derail the reconciliation process is the question of what will be the future of Hamas's 25,000-strong military and its weapons arsenal. Abbas said he wants full control of all guns in Gaza.
On Thursday, Sinwar doubled down on Hamas's stance that it will not relinquish its armed forces.
"Disarming us is like Satan dreaming of heaven. No one can take away our weapons," he said.
He also reportedly admitted that the talks could collapse. "There is a danger to the reconciliation project," Sinwar was quoted as saying, though he did not elaborate.
Last week, the two rival Palestinian factions signed an agreement in Cairo to allow the PA to take full control of the Gaza, which it was kicked out of 10 years ago by Hamas in a violent conflict.
During his talk, Sinwar also touched upon prisoner negotiations between Hamas and Israel.
In his statement, Sinwar reportedly said "we are ready for a second Shalit deal," a reference to the 2011 prisoner exchange for abducted IDF soldier Gilad Shalit that was his own ticket out of Israeli prison. In the new deal, he claimed, Fatah leader and convicted murderer Marwan Barghouti, as well as others, would go free.
Hamas is said to be holding captive three Israelis - Avraham Abera Mengistu, Hisham al-Sayed and Juma Ibrahim Abu Ghanima - all said to have entered the Gaza Strip of their own accord. Hamas is also holding the bodies of Oron Shaul and Hadar Goldin, two IDF soldiers who were killed in the Strip during the 2014 Gaza war.
Last month it was reported that Hamas had accepted an Egyptian proposal for a prisoner swap with Israel whereby the bodies of 39 Palestinians killed in the 2014 Gaza war, 19 of whom are Hamas members, would be handed over to the group in exchange for Hamas acknowledging the fate of IDF soldiers Hadar Goldin and Oron Shaul. The IDF says the two were killed in the Gaza Strip during the 2014 war. Hamas has hinted that it is holding the two soldiers and has also implied that they could still be alive.
In the second stage of the Egyptian plan, Israel would reportedly release the so-called "Shalit captives" - 58 Palestinians who were rearrested in the summer of 2014 after being set free in the 2011 swap for IDF soldier Gilad Shalit.
Speaking immediately after signing the deal, Saleh al-Arouri, the Hamas deputy political leader, said Palestinian unity was vital "so that we can all work together against the Zionist enterprise."
Sinwar on Thursday reiterated his group's desire for the reconciliation process to be successful, and personally invited Abbas to hold the next meeting of his party's central committee and of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), the largest Palestinian political umbrella group, in Gaza.
"I call for the Fatah Central Committee and the Palestine Liberation Organization to hold its next meeting in Gaza, headed by [Abbas]," Sinwar said, according to a Hamas spokesperson.
During his talk, Sinwar also touched upon prisoner negotiations between Hamas and Israel.
In his statement, Sinwar reportedly said "we are ready for a second Shalit deal," a reference to the 2011 prisoner exchange for abducted IDF soldier Gilad Shalit that was his own ticket out of Israeli prison. In the new deal, he claimed, Fatah leader and convicted murderer Marwan Barghouti, as well as others, would go free.
Hamas is said to be holding captive three Israelis - Avraham Abera Mengistu, Hisham al-Sayed and Juma Ibrahim Abu Ghanima - all said to have entered the Gaza Strip of their own accord. Hamas is also holding the bodies of Oron Shaul and Hadar Goldin, two IDF soldiers who were killed in the Strip during the 2014 Gaza war.
Last month it was reported that Hamas had accepted an Egyptian proposal for a prisoner swap with Israel whereby the bodies of 39 Palestinians killed in the 2014 Gaza war, 19 of whom are Hamas members, would be handed over to the group in exchange for Hamas acknowledging the fate of IDF soldiers Hadar Goldin and Oron Shaul. The IDF says the two were killed in the Gaza Strip during the 2014 war. Hamas has hinted that it is holding the two soldiers and has also implied that they could still be alive.
In the second stage of the Egyptian plan, Israel would reportedly release the so-called "Shalit captives" - 58 Palestinians who were rearrested in the summer of 2014 after being set free in the 2011 swap for IDF soldier Gilad Shalit.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards vow to step up fight against Israel - https://www.timesofisrael.com/irans-revolutionary-guards-vow-to-step-up-fight-against-israel/
Responding to tough US approach to regime, Islamic Republic forces pledge to accelerate missile development, put up 'relentless' battle against Jewish state
Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guards on Thursday threatened a "relentless fight" against Israel, a day after the US urged the international community to confront Tehran over its "destructive conduct" across the Middle East.
"We will continue the relentless fight against the hegemonic system and Zionism more resolutely and powerfully than before and... will not hesitate a moment in defending the Islamic Revolution and the country's national interests," the IRGC said in a statement published by the semi-official Fars news agency.
The armed forces made similar comments earlier on Thursday, in a statement that also blamed the "Zionist regime" along with the White House for implementing "devastating" policies in the region.
On Wednesday, US Ambassador Nikki Haley urged the UN Security Council to adopt the US's tough approach to Iran and address all aspects of its "destructive conduct" - not just the 2015 nuclear deal. The Trump administration has threatened to label the IRGC, a branch of the armed forces acting at the behest of the country's supreme leader, as a terrorist group.
Haley told the council that Iran "has repeatedly thumbed its nose" at council resolutions aimed at addressing Iranian support for terrorism and regional conflicts and has illegally supplied weapons to Yemen and Hezbollah militants in Syria and Lebanon.
The Revolutionary Guards also vowed to continue to accelerate its missile development program, despite threats from US President Donald Trump to impose sanctions on the regime if it does so.
"The regional influence and might and development of the Islamic Republic's missile power which was established when the country was fully under sanctions will continue and advance without a stop and more rapidly," the statement said.
Earlier this month, the commander of the IRGC threatened that if the United States designates it as a terrorist group, it will consider the US Army as equivalent to the Islamic State terror group.
Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari also said that if new sanctions against Iran go into effect, the US will have to "find a new place for its military bases, 2,000 kilometers (1,242 miles) away, outside the range of Iranian missiles, according to Iran's official IRNA news agency.
"If reports on the US decision to enlist Iran's IRGC as a terrorist group happen to be true, the Iranian force would also treat the American Army everywhere in the world and especially in the Middle East in the same way as Daesh (IS) terrorists," he said.
Jafari was responding to plans by the US administration to target Iran's affiliates, with a focus on the Revolutionary Guard.
Trump's refusal last week to re-certify the nuclear deal has sparked a new war of words between Iran and the United States, fueling growing mistrust and a sense of nationalism among Iranians. Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the European Union - the other parties to the nuclear accord - all have been urging Trump's administration not to abandon the accord.
Trump has yet to announce a withdrawal from the pact, instead kicking it to Congress for a decision.
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