Palestinian Jihad & Hamas lose 11 men in IDF terror tunnel blast which also sent a political message -
To ward off demands from Washington, Cairo and Riyadh to back the Palestinian unity effort, Netanyahu chose to show them what was really going on in Gaza.
The IDF and Israeli intelligence certainly knew a terrorist tunnel was being dug in the Gaza Strip near Khan Younes some weeks ago. But they waited until it crossed over and had snaked almost a kilometer inside Israel up to a point near Kissufim before blowing it up on Monday, Oct. 30. The IDF must also have known that Jihad Islami, which Iran established as its Palestinian arm, was building it, rather than Hamas.
The Jihadis threatened retaliation after reporting 11 of their men killed, including two top commanders, and two Hamas operatives, and 15 were injured - most of them mortally. Israel and Hamas are both on high alert for potential escalation. Ahead of the operation, Israel positioned an Iron Dome battery outside the Gaza Strip in case it prompted rocket fire in reprisal. The army also closed off parts of the border region to entry.
The timing of the operation entailed a number of complicated considerations, DEBKAfile reports.
The IDF waited for a government go-ahead, while watching two landmark events go forward without an Israeli response: (a) The Egyptian-brokered Hamas reconciliation with the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah, and (b) Steps by Hamas to deepen the foothold of Iran and Hezbollah in the Gaza Strip. Thus far, Hamas had been able to keep both tracks afloat without a collision or running into Israeli interference.
A decision was awaited as to whether to hit the still-unfinished tunnel when it was deserted, or to wait for high terrorist officers to be trapped inside. The latter was seen as tantamount to hitting an Iranian/Hezbollah target in Syria. The opportunity came up Monday, when a group of senior Jihad officers entered the tunnel, led by their central Gaza regional commander Arafat Abu Marshad and his lieutenant Hassan Abu Hasnin. Both were killed, along with a third jihadist Ahmed Khalil, and eight others, as well as two members of the Hamas naval commando unit, who tried to rescue the group that was trapped in the falling debris.
There was more than one way to destroy the terror tunnel using the "innovative technology" cited by Prime Minster Binyamin Netanyahu. It was decided to target the eastern section that crossed into Israel by air. The Israeli Air Force has never before struck an enemy target on Israeli soil. However the government wanted to show the Americans and Egyptians that the IDF's operation was not a wanton attack on Gaza but an act of national defense.
Tuesday, Oct. 31, was the day set by Hamas for Palestinian Authority officials to move in and start taking over the border crossings to Israel and Egypt. After that date, Israel would have found it hard to destroy the tunnel, without laying itself open to the charge of endangering PA officials.
An entire legion of Trump Administration envoys has been crisscrossing the Middle East these days on various errands. Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner left Riyadh Saturday after a visit in which he was accompanied by deputy national security adviser Dina Powell and special peace envoy Jason Greenblatt, who stayed on and arrived in Jerusalem Monday, Oct. 29 to brief Netanyahu on the talks the US envoys held in Riyadh as well as Cairo. Another American visitor to the Saudi capital was Treasury Secretary Seven Mnuchin. He landed in Jerusalem a day before Greenblatt and he too met Netanyahu.
Neither American nor Israeli officials are prepared to reveal the subjects of the US diplomatic shuttle. However, DEBKAfile's sources have learned that Israel was asked not just to express public approval of the reconciliation process underway between the rival Palestinian factions under Egyptian auspices, but to embark on practical steps to this end.
Netanyahu tried to ward of the demand coming at him from Washington, Cairo and Riyadh, by showing them what was really going on in Gaza, under cover of their Palestinian peace effort. New terror tunnels were hardly compatible with peace diplomacy, he wanted them to see and he believed that rocket fire in reprisal was worth that risk.
Monday night, after counting their dead, the heads of the Palestinian terrorist groups in the Gaza Strip held an emergency meeting to decide on their response to the tunnel attack. Jihad Islamic's pushed hard for a declaration of war on Israel, while Hamas advised against giving Israel a chance to "blow up its reconciliation accord with the Palestinian Authority." Its leaders were reluctant to jeopardize the landmark events due on Tuesday: A large Egyptian delegation was coming to the Gaza Strip to oversee the transfer of border crossings to the Palestinian Authority and also announce the establishment of an Egyptian consulate in Gaza City. A military clash could blow these events sky high.
Hamas promises 'blood for blood' after tunnel bombing, but sticks to unity plans - Dov Lieber -
'The enemy knows that our strength is in our unity,' says leader Ismail Haniyeh at funeral for deceased terrorists
Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on Tuesday said the terror group intends to respond with violence to the deaths of seven Gaza terrorists Monday after Israel blew up an attack tunnel that stretched into Israeli territory, but suggested the response would be delayed as Palestinian factions work toward reconciliation.
"I assure the leadership of [Palestinian] Islamic Jihad: blood for blood, destruction for destruction," said Haniyeh, speaking at the funeral for those who died in the tunnel, which was built and controlled by the PIJ terror group. PIJ possesses the second-largest military in Gaza after Hamas.
Five of the dead belonged to PIJ, two of whom were senior leaders, while two members of Hamas's military wing were also killed during a rescue operation in the exploded tunnel, according to the group.
While Haniyeh vowed to attack Israel, he stressed that Hamas's immediate response would be to quicken his party's reconciliation efforts with the Fatah party, which controls the Palestinian Authority.
Earlier this month, the two factions signed an agreement in Cairo allowing for the PA to resume control of Gaza - which Hamas seized in a near civil war with Fatah in 2007 - by December 1.
"The response to this massacre is to move forward toward the restoration of national unity because the enemy knows that our strength is in our unity and no people under occupation can win if they are not united," Haniyeh said.
Above: A funeral procession for terror group members killed in the tunnel explosion.
Hamas's deputy leader in Gaza, Khalil Hayya, also speaking at the funeral, stressed the terror group would wait for a strategic time to respond.
"We are a prudent resistance that knows how to manage its conflict with the enemy. [We] know how to avenge and to strike in the specific place and time that will hurt the enemy," he said.
Hamas has accused Israel of stirring up chaos in Gaza through the demolition of the tunnel in order to foil the ongoing reconciliation talks.
So has Fatah. Fatah spokesperson and vice chairman of the party's revolutionary council Fayez Abu Eita echoed Hamas, charging that the detonation of the tunnel by the Israeli army was aimed at disrupting the unity talks.
"This crime comes in the context of [sowing confusion] and creating tension in order to thwart Palestinian national reconciliation," Abu Eita said in a statement carried in the official PA news outlet Wafa on Monday night.
Senior Islamic Jihad leader Khaled al-Batash on Monday vowed that "all our options are open" for a response, but added his group "will take all considerations into account."
Palestinian and Israeli reports have said Egyptian officials were in contact with Hamas late Monday urging the terror group to show restraint and allow the reconciliation process to continue.
Israel deployed its Iron Dome anti-missile system in the area and declared the border region a closed military zone in preparation for possible retaliation.
"The explosion took place inside Israeli territory. The majority of the dead were operatives who entered the tunnel after it was blown up and died in the Gaza Strip, and not as a [direct] result of the explosion," said IDF spokesperson Avichay Adraee.
"We are not interested in an escalation, but we are ready for all scenarios," he said.
Both the IDF and Hamas say most of the deaths from the detonation of the tunnel were caused by inhalation, though an IDF spokesperson said it was dust or smoke while Hamas has claimed the tunnel was filled with poisonous gas.
The IDF said the tunnel ran from the Gazan city of Khan Younis, crossed under the border, and approached the Israeli community of Kibbutz Kissufim.
Despite an assassination attempt on Hamas's internal security chief Tawfiq Abu Naim on Friday, blamed variously on Israel and the Islamic State jihadist group, the terror group said it will continue to abide by the Cairo agreement and hand over control of Gaza's border crossing to the PA on Wednesday.
The fate of the Hamas security forces after it transfers power to the PA is one of the most delicate issues facing the reconciliation process.
Abbas wants the handover to be comprehensive and include all security institutions, but Hamas's leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, has said "no one" can force his group to disarm.
Israel and the United States have meanwhile said that Hamas must disarm as part of any unity government.
They have also demanded that the group recognize Israel.
The Iran-Hamas Plan to Destroy Israel - by Khaled Abu Toameh - https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/11209/iran-hamas-destroy-israel
In a historic reawakening, Iran is once again meddling in the internal affairs of the Palestinians. This this does not bode well for the future of "reconciliation" between Hamas and Palestinian Authority's Fatah faction run by President Mahmoud Abbas. The re-emergence of Iran, as it pursues its efforts to increase its political and military presence in the region, does not bode well for the future of stability in the Middle East.
The Iranians are urging Hamas to hold on to its weapons in spite of the recent "reconciliation" agreement signed between Hamas and Fatah under the auspices of Egypt. Iran's goal in this move? For Hamas to maintain and enhance its preparation for war against Israel.
A high-level Hamas delegation headed by Saleh Arouri, deputy chairman of Hamas's "political bureau," traveled to Tehran last week to brief Iranian leaders on the "reconciliation" deal with Fatah. During the visit, Iranian leaders praised Hamas for resisting demands (by Fatah) to disarm and relinquish security control over the Gaza Strip.
"We congratulate you on your refusal to abandon your weapons, an issue that you consider as a red line," Ali Velayati, a senior Iranian politician and advisor to Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Khamenei, told the visiting Hamas officials. "The Palestinian cause is the most important cause of the Islamic world, and after all this time you remain committed to the principle of resistance against the Zionists despite all the pressure you are facing."
Arouri and his colleagues rushed to Tehran to seek the support of the Iranian regime in the wake of demands by Abbas that Hamas allow the Palestinian Authority to assume security control over the Gaza Strip. The "reconciliation" agreement stipulates nothing about the need for Hamas to disarm, and Hamas officials have stressed during the past two weeks that they have no intention of laying down their weapons or dismantling their security apparatus in the Gaza Strip.
Hamas views the demand to disarm as part of an Israeli-American "conspiracy" designed to eliminate the Palestinian "resistance" and thwart the "reconciliation" accord with Abbas's Fatah. Hamas's refusal to disarm is already threatening to spoil the "reconciliation."
Arouri was quoted during his visit to Tehran as saying that Hamas "will not backtrack on the option of defending the Palestinian people." He specified that the "reconciliation" agreement with Fatah would not affect the weapons of the Palestinian "resistance," including Hamas. Hamas, he added, will "confront the Israeli-American conspiracy through national unity and reconciliation and by continuing the resistance. The Palestinian resistance forces will always stick to their weapons and will not lay them down."
Hamas also sees the visit of its top officials to Tehran as a rejection of Israel's demand that it cut off its ties with Iran. Hamas officials say they continue to see their relations with Iran as "strategic and significant," especially in wake of Tehran's financial and military aid to their movement in the Gaza Strip.
By aligning itself with Iran, Hamas is also seeking to resist any demand that it abandon its ideology and charter, which call for the destruction of Israel and oppose any peace process between Israelis and Palestinians.
Iranian officials apparently do not like Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority and are not keen on seeing them return to the Gaza Strip. Iran considers Abbas a "traitor" because his Palestinian Authority conducts security coordination with Israel in the West Bank and claims that it is committed to a "peace process" with Israel. This position goes against Iran's wish to destroy the "Zionist entity."
Abbas, for his part, has always considered Iran a threat to his regime as well as to stability in the region. In the past, he has criticized Iran for "meddling" in the internal affairs of the Palestinians by supporting Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip.
Earlier this year, the Palestinian Authority strongly condemned Iran after a senior Iranian official accused Abbas of waging war in the Gaza Strip on behalf of Israel. The official's statement came in response to a series of punitive measures imposed by Abbas on the Gaza Strip.
Abbas's spokesman, Nabil Abu Rudaineh, accused Iran of meddling in the internal affairs of the Palestinians and some Arab countries. He said that Iran's actions "encouraged divisions" among the Palestinians. "Iran must stop feeding civil wars in the Arab world," he said. "Iran must stop using rhetoric that only serves Israel and the enemies of the Arabs."
Abbas and the Palestinian Authority are now convinced that Iran is working towards foiling the "reconciliation" agreement with Hamas. They believe that Iran invited the Hamas leaders to Tehran to pressure them not to lay down its weapons.
Abbas and the Egyptians were probably na�ve to think that Hamas would disarm and allow Abbas loyalists to deploy in the Gaza Strip after the signing of the "reconciliation" agreement. It is possible that some of the Hamas leaders had lied to Abbas and the Egyptians by hinting that Hamas would give up security control of the Gaza Strip.
The Egyptians, who played a major role in brokering the Hamas-Fatah deal, are also believed to be worried about Iran's renewed meddling in the internal affairs of the Palestinians. Both the Palestinian Authority and Egypt see the visit of the Hamas delegation to Iran as a serious setback to the "reconciliation" agreement and as a sign that Hamas is not sincere about implementing the accord.
Some Palestinian Authority and Hamas officials have recently claimed that Israel was not happy with their "reconciliation" agreement and was doing its utmost to foil it. The truth, however, is that it is Iran and Hamas that are working to thwart the agreement by insisting on maintaining the status quo in the Gaza Strip. Iran's message to Hamas: If you want us to continue providing you with financial and military aid, you must continue to hold on to your weapons and reject demands to disarm.
What is in it for Iran? Iran wants Hamas to retain its security control over the Gaza Strip so that the Iranians can hold onto another power base in the Middle East.
Iran wants Hamas to continue playing the role of a proxy, precisely as Hezbollah functions in Lebanon.
The last thing Iran wants is for the Palestinian Authority security forces to return to the Gaza Strip: that would spoil Tehran's plans to advance its goal of destroying Israel.
Iran's continued support for Hamas stems not out of love for either Hamas or the Palestinians, but from its own interest in consolidating its presence in the Middle East.
Many Palestinians see the "successful" visit of the Hamas officials to Tehran as a major setback for efforts to end the 10-year-long Hamas-Fatah dispute. Similarly, the Egyptians are now wary of the sudden rapprochement between Iran and Hamas and are beginning to ask themselves whether they have been duped by Hamas. An Israeli delegation that visited Cairo on the eve of the signing of the Hamas-Fatah deal is said to have warned the Egyptians that the "reconciliation" would not work unless Hamas disarms and severs its ties with Iran. However, the Egyptians reportedly failed to listen to the Israeli warning.
As for Israel, the US and other Western parties, the lesson to be drawn from the renewal of ties between Hamas and Iran is that Hamas has not changed one iota.
Contrary to delusional hopes, discussed on the heels of the "reconciliation" agreement in Cairo and based on lies and thin air, Hamas is not headed toward moderation and pragmatism. By openly supporting Hamas, Iran is once again demonstrating that it aims to fan the fire in the Middle East and continue to sabotage any prospects for peace.
Wake-Up Call: The Russia-Iran Axis Is an Existential Threat to Israel's Security - by Yigal Carmon -
Iranian forces and Iran-supported militias are expanding in Syria, and are approaching the Israeli border. This is happening with the full support and facilitation of Russia, even though Russia knows very well that Iran's aim is to fight the State of Israel and eradicate it - and that its expansion in Syria will significantly advance that aim.
While Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov calls Israel's demand that the Iranians maintain a distance of 40 kilometers from its border "not realistic" - even though Iran has come 2,000 kilometers to reach this point - Russian Defense Minister Shoygu has the temerity to come to Israel and entreat it to refrain from defending itself.
The Russians believe that they can mislead Jerusalem. But so far, Israel has elected to act according to facts, rather than being taken in by Russian duplicity. Israel, therefore, is striking Syrian targets that endanger the Jewish state.
While Syria and Iran enjoy full Russian support, Israel lacks US backing against the Russia-Iran threat. The US does not even stand up for itself in Syria - just a few days ago, Russia, like a rogue state, violated the deconfliction zone agreement that it itself had signed with the US. Therefore, Iran's expansion into all of Syria up to the Israeli border will soon be completed, with the full support of Russia - and with an eventual withdrawal of all US forces from Syria.
Senior Iranian officials and military commanders have already clarified that after Syria, Israel is next.
Israel will have to fight its war against the Iran-Russia-Syria axis alone. It will need America's diplomatic backing, military equipment and economic assistance, but never American troops. Yet as matters stand, the actual US strategy vis-�-vis Iran's expansion in the region is contrary to its rhetoric, which opposes this expansion (the US agreed, both in the Astana talks and in the deconfliction zones agreement with Russia, to legitimize Iran's presence in Syria).
This means that American support for Israel against the Iran-Russia axis is not assured. The US' Russia policy also does not guarantee that the US will stand with Israel against the Iranian threat that is enabled by Russia.
Israel is well equipped to answer existential threats if it must - even if they are either directly or indirectly Russian. At the same time, Russia's military power may prove to be overestimated. Russia acts as if it is a world power, but its advanced weaponry may fail against Israeli-American technological superiority. This may be why Russia is in no hurry to launch its missiles when Israel strikes in Syria. President Obama even called Russia a regional power.
This is not to say that there is no existential threat to Israel. Clearly, the Iran-Russia-Syria-Hezbollah axis does pose such a threat, but Israel can overcome it - if we must. However, the Jewish state's ability to face the threat depends on early recognition that Russia is part of the enemy axis.
The inability of many in Israel and the West to perceive Russia as the enemy stems from the belief that Russia has no reason in the world to be Israel's enemy. Therefore, they ignore what they see happening in Syria, and instead provide complicated explanations about an inherent conflict of interests between Russia and Iran.
This is a psychological failing from which Israel suffered bitterly in its history, as have other nations.
So why would Russia align itself politically and strategically with Iran?
Russia views itself as a superpower that is fighting to reclaim its former status. Indeed, for Russia, the enemy is not Israel. Russia's true adversary is the US, and Israel is an historic ally of that adversary. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, an increasingly embittered Russia has escalated its attempts to regain its past glory. The Russian regime hates the US.
But Russia cannot fight the US directly. America is in the North Sea, and the best that Russia can do is dispatch planes to buzz the US Navy there. NATO is expanding eastwards, and Russia's forces are no match for it - as attested to by General Staff Col. (ret.) Mikhail Khoradenok on Russian television, to the dismay of his audience: "We have 200 warplanes, while NATO has 3,800. We have 1,600 armored vehicles and APCs, while NATO has more than 20,000... Thus, anyone who talks about our capability to wage a conventional war against NATO is clearly too hotheaded" (see MEMRI Russian Media Project Clip #5902, February 14, 2017). Russia's single antiquated smoke-belching aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov is also no match for the US Navy, with its 10 advanced carriers.
Russia cannot take on America directly, and therefore, it is using Iran as its proxy to humiliate America, undermine its status and expel it from the region. At the same time, Russia can use Iran as a bargaining chip to obtain what it needs the most: a lifting of the sanctions that were imposed after Russia annexed Crimea and dismembered Ukraine. Russian regime-affiliated think tanks and media outlets explicitly stated in early 2017 that Russia's alliance with Iran could be a bargaining chip.
Unless and until Russia and the West strike a deal on lifting these sanctions in exchange for Russia's abandoning its alliance with Iran - which is completely unrealistic - Russia will cling to this alliance. This is because Iran reinforces Russia's superpower aspirations and pretensions, and shares, and serves, Russia's drive to humiliate and undermine the US.
Any harm done to Israel in the process does not figure in Russia's strategic considerations vis-�-vis the US. Worse, even if Russia were to change direction at any time in the future, Iran's Russia-enabled expansion in Syria - and its proximity to Israel - will remain, and will serve as the Islamic Republic's launching pad for its war against Israel.
Russia is also making it possible for Iran to evade inspection of its nuclear program, to which it is subject under the JCPOA. This adds a nuclear element to the existential threat posed by Russia to Israel, as follows:
A. Iran's inventory of 8.5 tons of enriched uranium, shipped out of Iran to Russia in December 2015 in accordance with the JCPOA, has gone missing in Russia. This was attested to by the Obama administration's State Department lead coordinator on Iran, Stephen Mull, at a February 11, 2016 House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing, where he said: "It has not yet been decided where exactly Russia will put this information [sic]." But under questioning, Mull acknowledged that Washington had not verified the Iranian shipment.
B. The most egregious example of Russia's facilitation of Tehran's development of nuclear weapons capability is its support of Iran's refusal to allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections, in accordance with Section T of the JCPOA, which prohibits Iran from "designing, developing, fabricating, acquiring, or using multi-point explosive detonation systems suitable for a nuclear explosive device" and also from "designing, developing, fabricating, acquiring, or using explosive diagnostic systems (streak cameras, framing cameras and flash x-ray cameras)" - unless these activities are "approved by the Joint Commission for non-nuclear purposes" and "subject to monitoring."
Iran refuses to allow such monitoring, and Russia supports Iran in its refusal. Russia claims, in a preposterous argument, that the IAEA is not authorized to deal with this part of the JCPOA. Its stance was illustrated in October 20, 2017, remarks by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at the Moscow Nonproliferation Conference: "It is impossible to strengthen what does not exist. The IAEA has no mandate to verify Section T."
Thus, Russia's sabotage of the implementation of sections of the JCPOA, and its claim that Iran's 8.5-ton inventory of enriched uranium has gone missing, contribute directly to Iran's unhindered ability to develop a nuclear weapons capacity.
Iran & Terror Tunnels In A Time Of Palestinian Unity - Michael Friedson & Charles Bybelezer -
Questions emerge as to Iran's role in Gaza as Abbas set to take over security control of Strip.
The Israel Defense Forces on Monday destroyed a subterranean attack tunnel stretching east from the city of Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip into Israeli territory, reaching within a mile of the Kibbutz Kissufim border community. According to military officials, construction of the tunnel, which was ongoing, began only after conclusion of the seven-week war against Hamas in 2014. The IDF did not reveal who dug the passageway but stressed that it ultimately holds Hamas "accountable and responsible" for all violent acts emanating from Gaza as its governing authority.
Seven terrorists were killed in the operation, including two high-ranking members of the Iranian-backed Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Arafat Abu Murshad, its central Gaza commander; and his deputy Hassan Abu Hassanein. Two ranking Hamas members who also perished were believed to have died from asphyxiation after they entered the tunnel to save others who were inside when the Israelis collapsed the structure.
The Israeli security echelon is evaluating a number of perplexities stemming from the mission, including whether the presence of both high-ranking Hamas and senior Islamic Jihad loyalists indicates a new level of cooperation presumably tied to the Iranians, with whom Hamas is striving to build its relationship. Earlier this month a Hamas delegation visited Tehran seeking closer ties and more funding to support its military ambitions against the Jewish state. One distinct possibility is taking "good-cop; bad-cop" to the next level with Hamas camouflaging its involvement in terror in order not to destroy the reconciliation with Fatah and the Palestinian Authority, and thereby sacrificing its place in the Palestinian unified government. Islamic Jihad would be the ideal partner for such a scheme.
For Iran, all scenarios appear to be "win-win." As it extends its reach into Gaza it is consolidating its control over the Lebanese government via the Hezbollah terrorist organization which also provides inroads into southern Syria.
Pointedly, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman condemned "the bloodthirsty Zionist regime" for destroying the tunnel, an act he described as precipitated by a desire to "guarantee [Israel's] security by killing Palestinian youths."
According to Yaakov Lappin, an Israeli military correspondent and analyst, "Islamic Jihad has had its own tunnel program since 2014 and this particular one appears to have been part of the network. Even so, it is very unlikely that Hamas did not know about it.
"The two groups have in recent years been cooperating," he explained to The Media Line, "as well as coordinating their responses to Israel based on the understanding that any independent action could pull both groups into an unwanted war."
Lappin raised the possibility that the Islamic Republic directed its underling to purposely dig into Israeli territory as a provocation. "The Iranians would very much like to turn Gaza into one of the bases that is used to target Israel, as well as to use the enclave as a point of entry into the West Bank, which they have been trying to access for years."
Speaking to The Media Line, Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yosef Kuperwasser, head of the Regional Research Project at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, explained that, "The effort dates back to the Second Intifada [a period of intense terrorism characterized by Palestinian suicide bombings between 2000 and 2005]. Tehran has attempted to do this through Islamic Jihad, which it created and completely controls, and also by financing Hamas."
Dr. Eitan Shamir, former director of the National Security Doctrine Department in Israel's Ministry of Strategic Affairs, agrees that Islamic Jihad-and, by extension, Tehran-is asserting itself in the Gaza Strip. "It is clearly taking a more active role, whereas Hamas has recently tried to assume a relatively moderate posture. While both are committed to the 'resistance' [read anti-Israel violence], Hamas is more constrained [by political realities]."
Nevertheless, he told The Media Line that "the [destroyed] tunnel was likely known to Hamas, so it may either be ignoring these actions or perhaps trying to operate under the cover of Islamic Jihad. Overall, Hamas cannot put itself in a position to restrain Islamic Jihad as they are both being financed by the same patron."
The discovery of the attack tunnel-whether constructed with Hamas' tacit approval to achieve plausible deniability or at its explicit directive-creates additional problems when viewed against the backdrop of the unity deal signed with Abbas' Fatah faction.
On the diplomatic front, Jerusalem has repeatedly vowed not to engage in peace negotiations with a Palestinian government that includes Hamas and the latest tunnel incident will likely solidify this position, even as Israel continues to cooperate with Abbas on various levels in the West Bank.
It is, after all, in the interest of both parties to ensure that Hamas in particular is not able to expand the scope of its terror operations. Additionally, U.S. President Donald Trump's soon-to-be-unveiled peace initiative will likely provide a "loophole" to effectively sideline Hamas from any talks, thereby enabling Jerusalem to enter into a process with Abbas while saving face.
The situation, however, is more complex and potentially explosive from a security standpoint with Abbas set to assume total control over Gaza by December 1. There is widespread doubt he can prevent Hamas and Islamic Jihad from continuing to arm themselves to the teeth-with the assistance of Iran-while threatening Israel with attack tunnels.
Lappin reinforced the notion that Hamas will remain the dominant military presence in Gaza for the foreseeable future. "Abbas will not be able to send a sizeable security force into the enclave, but rather the idea is that Hamas' armed wing will pledge allegiance to the unity government. But [the Palestinian leader] is not deluded-he recognizes the limitations."
According to Kuperwasser, "the lesson for Israel is that it should not be tempted to believe in the illusion that the [Fatah-Hamas] agreement will lead to less terrorism from Gaza." He further stressed that Jerusalem "should hold up the [tunnel] example to the international community as evidence of what Hamas is and will continue to be."
Kuperwasser concluded by highlighting the perils of an evolving dynamic in Gaza: "What would have happened if the Palestinian Authority had already assumed responsibility in the Strip and then Islamic Jihad responded to the destroyed tunnel by firing rockets into Israel? And what if there was a further escalation after Israel retaliated?
"Abbas would have been caught in the middle. What would he do in such an impossible situation?"
Israeli deterrence in a new Middle East - Yossi Melman -
Although the security situation is fragile, Israel has made dramatic strides.
With the beginning of a new Jewish year, Israel's strategic position has improved dramatically, an indication that Israeli deterrence is working on all fronts and is disrupting its enemies' war doctrines. This is the bottom line presented in recent weeks by military intelligence's top echelon to the cabinet.
Israel faces security challenges of various levels on six fronts: Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, the Palestinian West Bank, Gaza and Egypt.
The two borders with Egypt and Jordan that benefit from the long-standing peace agreements are quiet with the security, military and intelligence cooperation between Israel and Jordan and Israel and Egypt at its peak.
The situation in the West Bank is fragile but manageable. For 50 years, some 2.5 million Palestinians have lived under Israeli occupation in the shadow of the construction of more Jewish settlements. Their daily life is controlled by the bureaucratic whims of the Israeli army with roadblocks everywhere.
And yet, they are largely submissive and accept this reality with the occasional burst of violence and terrorism.
Two years ago, there was a spontaneous effort by young Palestinians to ignite a new - third - uprising (intifada). It has been characterized largely by young Palestinians, sometimes teenagers, with no organizational affiliation, using knives and cars as their weapons of choice. But a strong response by the Israeli military combined with effective intelligence and monitoring of social media subdued most of the efforts to carry out terrorist attacks.
What also contributed to Israeli success was a smart policy, advised by the security establishment and accepted by the government to allow nearly 100,000 Palestinian workers to continue working in Israel. In other words, Israel succeeded in fighting the violence by isolating the perpetrators from the rest of the population with minimal "collective punishment."
Although the right-wing Israeli government led by Benjamin Netanyahu stubbornly refuses to negotiate with the Palestinian Authority about a respectable and fair deal, the PA security services still cooperate with their Israeli counterparts and, together, thwart terrorist plans made mainly by their joint enemy - Hamas.
For the last 10 years, the Islamic movement Hamas, which is an extension of the outlawed Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, has ruled Gaza. Hamas, which came to power after a military coup d'�tat that toppled the PA government, doesn't recognize the right of Israel to exist, has armed itself and has already triggered three wars.
Three times the IDF invaded Gaza, a small enclave of 365 square kilometers with 2 million Palestinian inhabitants - one of the most densely populated and poor areas in the world. Three times the invasions have wreaked havoc, causing heavy damage to the limited infrastructure, killing thousands of civilians and injuring many more. Each invasion dealt a heavy blow to the military strength of Hamas but the group somehow managed to rebuild, usually at the expense of the population's basic needs of water, electricity and food.
Hamas, aware of its military inferiority, developed a strategy with three tactical tools to challenge the mighty Israeli military machine.
Its first move was to amass a large arsenal of thousands rockets that were launched against Israeli cities and villages. The second tool was to build underground tunnels penetrating into Israel and use them for surprise attacks against military positions and rural communities. The third tool has been finding cover among civilians who serve Hamas as "human shields" in military confrontations.
In these three campaigns (2008-2009, 2012 and 2014), Israeli communities and cities, including Tel Aviv, were shelled, as Hamas aimed to create an effect of psychological terror on the population. Hamas fighters surfaced inside Israeli territories and also caused casualties among the invading IDF troops.
After each round, the Israeli government was strongly condemned by the international community. Yet, the Israeli will was not broken.
Rather, it is Hamas that has found itself in a shaky situation.
After the last war, Hamas ended up isolated as never before as the Israeli-Egyptian- Palestinian alliance eroded its status.
The three parties increased their pressure on Hamas. Egypt accused Hamas of colluding with ISIS in Sinai and stepped up its battle against Hamas tunnels between Gaza and Sinai. Dozens of tunnels were bulldozed and destroyed, cutting off the Islamic movement from its economic lifeline because the tunnels served not only to smuggle in weapons but also goods that were then taxed.
The siege of Hamas by Egypt, Israel and the PA has resulted in their reduction of regular payments to the Gaza administration, especially for covering the cost of electricity.
This has widened the wedge between Hamas and the rest of the population, who have finally begun to blame their misery on the Hamas government.
On the military front, Hamas is also in dire straits. The blockade of the tunnels deprives Hamas of its capacity to smuggle in better rockets from Sinai and forces it to rely on local industry, which is suffering from a shortage of essential components to produce improved, longer range and more accurate rockets.
Furthermore, Hamas has realized that Israel is developing powerful countermeasures that undermine two of its best military tools.
The first, which already has proven itself in battle, is Israeli's anti-missile system, especially the Iron Dome, which has intercepted and "killed" many Hamas rockets in mid-air, thus lowering its success rate in killing Israelis and causing damage to property. The second significant anti-Hamas measure is the deep, underground wall made of heavy concrete and sensors for target detection that Israel is constructing along the 65 km border with Gaza. Once completed in 2019, it will make it difficult for Hamas to dig more tunnels inside Israel.
All these developments - the economic- humanitarian crisis, diplomatic isolation, and military inferiority - have forced Hamas to change its military doctrine and diplomatic orientation. The biggest surprise - its acknowledgement of the necessity to be realistic - comes from a new leadership that was considered to be extremely militant.
Hamas's top military and political echelon led by Yahya Sinwar consists mainly of activists who have served long sentences in Israeli jails because of their terrorist involvement.
Yet Hamas has shown a great deal of pragmatism in trying to reconcile with its arch rival, the PA; improving relations with Egypt; disconnecting from Iran (though it still gets an annual infusion of $70 million for its military wing); and most importantly, reducing the digging of tunnels inside Israel, and excavating more bunkers and tunnels for defensive purposes in Gaza.
It also means, as Israeli intelligence estimates, that Hamas is being deterred and as a result is not interested in a new round of fighting.
This assessment is enforced by the recent reconciliation agreement between the PA and Hamas. The deal avoids the issue of disarming Hamas as an independent militia, but by reinstating PA civilian authority in Gaza it diminishes the ability of Hamas to make independent decisions.
IN THE north, according to Israeli intelligence, Hezbollah, like Hamas, has changed its war doctrine because of Israeli deterrence and superiority.
Until recently, Hezbollah believed that with its 100,000 rockets and missiles capable of hitting any target in Israel, the longer the next war would be, the better. Now, however, Israel's intelligence assessment is that the Shi'ite Lebanese movement has reversed its doctrine, preferring and preparing for a short campaign because Israel has made it clear that, unlike in the 2006 war, it no longer distinguishes between Hezbollah and the Lebanese army and government. To Israel, they are one and the same and, in the next war, will be targeted equally.
Realizing that Israel has improved its intelligence and fire power, Hezbollah now understands that prolonging a war would be counterproductive and enable Israel to cause unprecedented damage to Lebanon, as Israeli military and political leaders talk about "pushing Lebanon back into the Stone Age."
Another important contributor to this change is the fact that despite Iranian efforts to help its Lebanese prot�g�, Hezbollah has only a few hundred missiles with a range of 300 kilometers or more and they are inaccurate, if such a missile were to be launched against Israel's Defense Ministry and IDF General Staff Headquarters in central Tel Aviv, it could very well just fall into the sea.
Nevertheless, Israel doesn't underestimate Hezbollah capabilities. It's a strong military force of 45,000 troops, half of them conscripts. And, despite its heavy losses in the civil war in Syria, 2,000 of its warriors killed and 8,000 wounded, it gained a great deal of battle experience in large troop maneuvering.
Hezbollah is therefore no longer a terrorist group but a professional army.
Taking advantage of their contribution to saving the Assad regime in Syria (together with Russia), Hezbollah and its Iranian sponsor are trying to gain a foothold near the Israeli border, but Israeli leaders have declared that they will not tolerate any Iranian or Shi'ite presence close to the Golan Heights.
It seems that here, too, Israeli deterrence is working, and neither Hezbollah nor Iranian troops no longer dare to take up positions close to the Israeli border. However, Israeli intelligence assessments emphasize that, despite the current tranquility, the risk of an unexpected confrontation in one or two arenas - Gaza and/or Lebanon - is still relatively high.
"The situation is fragile," a senior military officer told me, "and any minor incident can get out of hand."
All parties involved don't want another round of violence, so war is not on the horizon; still the danger remains that a miscalculation by one or the other could trigger a slide into an unwanted confrontation.
Iran and terror tunnels in a time of Palestinian unity - Michael Friedson & Charles Bybelezer -
Questions emerge as to Iran's role in Gaza as Abbas set to take over security control of Strip.
The Israel Defense Forces on Monday destroyed a subterranean attack tunnel stretching east from the city of Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip into Israeli territory, reaching within a mile of the Kibbutz Kissufim border community. According to military officials, construction of the tunnel, which was ongoing, began only after conclusion of the seven-week war against Hamas in 2014. The IDF did not reveal who dug the passageway but stressed that it ultimately holds Hamas "accountable and responsible" for all violent acts emanating from Gaza as its governing authority.
Seven terrorists were killed in the operation, including two high-ranking members of the Iranian-backed Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Arafat Abu Murshad, its central Gaza commander; and his deputy Hassan Abu Hassanein. Two ranking Hamas members who also perished were believed to have died from asphyxiation after they entered the tunnel to save others who were inside when the Israelis collapsed the structure.
The Israeli security echelon is evaluating a number of perplexities stemming from the mission, including whether the presence of both high-ranking Hamas and senior Islamic Jihad loyalists indicates a new level of cooperation presumably tied to the Iranians, with whom Hamas is striving to build its relationship. Earlier this month a Hamas delegation visited Tehran seeking closer ties and more funding to support its military ambitions against the Jewish state. One distinct possibility is taking "good-cop; bad-cop" to the next level with Hamas camouflaging its involvement in terror in order not to destroy the reconciliation with Fatah and the Palestinian Authority, and thereby sacrificing its place in the Palestinian unified government. Islamic Jihad would be the ideal partner for such a scheme.
For Iran, all scenarios appear to be "win-win." As it extends its reach into Gaza it is consolidating its control over the Lebanese government via the Hezbollah terrorist organization which also provides inroads into southern Syria.
Pointedly, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman condemned "the bloodthirsty Zionist regime" for destroying the tunnel, an act he described as precipitated by a desire to "guarantee [Israel's] security by killing Palestinian youths."
According to Yaakov Lappin, an Israeli military correspondent and analyst, "Islamic Jihad has had its own tunnel program since 2014 and this particular one appears to have been part of the network. Even so, it is very unlikely that Hamas did not know about it.
"The two groups have in recent years been cooperating," he explained to The Media Line, "as well as coordinating their responses to Israel based on the understanding that any independent action could pull both groups into an unwanted war."
Lappin raised the possibility that the Islamic Republic directed its underling to purposely dig into Israeli territory as a provocation. "The Iranians would very much like to turn Gaza into one of the bases that is used to target Israel, as well as to use the enclave as a point of entry into the West Bank, which they have been trying to access for years."
Speaking to The Media Line, Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yosef Kuperwasser, head of the Regional Research Project at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, explained that, "The effort dates back to the Second Intifada [a period of intense terrorism characterized by Palestinian suicide bombings between 2000 and 2005]. Tehran has attempted to do this through Islamic Jihad, which it created and completely controls, and also by financing Hamas."
Dr. Eitan Shamir, former director of the National Security Doctrine Department in Israel's Ministry of Strategic Affairs, agrees that Islamic Jihad-and, by extension, Tehran-is asserting itself in the Gaza Strip. "It is clearly taking a more active role, whereas Hamas has recently tried to assume a relatively moderate posture. While both are committed to the 'resistance' [read anti-Israel violence], Hamas is more constrained [by political realities]."
Nevertheless, he told The Media Line that "the [destroyed] tunnel was likely known to Hamas, so it may either be ignoring these actions or perhaps trying to operate under the cover of Islamic Jihad. Overall, Hamas cannot put itself in a position to restrain Islamic Jihad as they are both being financed by the same patron."
The discovery of the attack tunnel-whether constructed with Hamas' tacit approval to achieve plausible deniability or at its explicit directive-creates additional problems when viewed against the backdrop of the unity deal signed with Abbas' Fatah faction.
On the diplomatic front, Jerusalem has repeatedly vowed not to engage in peace negotiations with a Palestinian government that includes Hamas and the latest tunnel incident will likely solidify this position, even as Israel continues to cooperate with Abbas on various levels in the West Bank.
It is, after all, in the interest of both parties to ensure that Hamas in particular is not able to expand the scope of its terror operations. Additionally, U.S. President Donald Trump's soon-to-be-unveiled peace initiative will likely provide a "loophole" to effectively sideline Hamas from any talks, thereby enabling Jerusalem to enter into a process with Abbas while saving face.
The situation, however, is more complex and potentially explosive from a security standpoint with Abbas set to assume total control over Gaza by December 1. There is widespread doubt he can prevent Hamas and Islamic Jihad from continuing to arm themselves to the teeth-with the assistance of Iran-while threatening Israel with attack tunnels.
Lappin reinforced the notion that Hamas will remain the dominant military presence in Gaza for the foreseeable future. "Abbas will not be able to send a sizeable security force into the enclave, but rather the idea is that Hamas' armed wing will pledge allegiance to the unity government. But [the Palestinian leader] is not deluded-he recognizes the limitations."
According to Kuperwasser, "the lesson for Israel is that it should not be tempted to believe in the illusion that the [Fatah-Hamas] agreement will lead to less terrorism from Gaza." He further stressed that Jerusalem "should hold up the [tunnel] example to the international community as evidence of what Hamas is and will continue to be."
Kuperwasser concluded by highlighting the perils of an evolving dynamic in Gaza: "What would have happened if the Palestinian Authority had already assumed responsibility in the Strip and then Islamic Jihad responded to the destroyed tunnel by firing rockets into Israel? And what if there was a further escalation after Israel retaliated?
"Abbas would have been caught in the middle. What would he do in such an impossible situation?"
PLEASE VISIT MY WIFE'S WEBSITE. SHE RUNS "YOUNG LIVING" WHICH PROVIDES ALL NATURAL OILS THAT CAN BE USED INTERNALLY AND EXTERNALLY INCLUDING A DIFFUSER WHICH PUTS AN AMAZING ODOR IN THE AIR. THIS PRODUCT IS SO AMAZING AND KNOW THAT YOU WILL GET YEARS OF ENJOYMENT FROM IT. GO TO HTTP://WWW.YOUNGLIVING.ORG/CDROSES
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.