IRAN UPDATE: 3.4.17 - Iran axis in Syria leads Israeli security concerns, top official says

Iran axis in Syria leads Israeli security concerns, top official says - By Raphael Ahren and Judah Ari Gross - http://www.timesofisrael.com/syria-tops-jerusalems-security-agenda-senior-official-says/

 

Intelligence Ministry chief praises Trump for tough line on Islamic Republic, says Jerusalem hoping for ongoing US involvement in Syrian crisis

 

Despite ongoing concerns over Iran's nuclear ambitions, dealing with threats emanating from the Syrian war theater currently tops the agenda of Israel's security apparatus, according to a top intelligence official.

 

"The most important strategic issue we're currently facing is the strengthening of the Shiite axis led by Iran in Syria, especially after the fall of Aleppo," Chagai Tzuriel, the director-general of the Intelligence Ministry, told The Times of Israel.

 

In mid-December, pro-government forces captured the war-torn city from the hands of rebels fighters.

 

"Syria is the key arena, because it's a microcosm of everything: world powers, such as Russia and the US; regional actors such as Iran and Turkey; and rival groups within the country, such the Assad regime, the opposition, the Kurds and the Islamic State," Tzuriel said during a briefing last week in his Jerusalem office. "Whatever happens in Syria today will greatly impact the region, and beyond, for years to come."

 

The war there shows that the entire world is now made up of "frenemies," countries with conflicting interests, he said, using the term both in English and in a Hebrew portmanteau of his own creation: amitorfim, a combination of amit, meaning friend, and torfim, predators.

 

"It's not schtick," he said; it's how the world operates now.

 

Israel's recent rapprochement with Turkey, Tzuriel added, could be seen as an extension of this "frenemies" concept. The two staunchly disagree on Hamas and the Palestinian issue, but see eye to eye on the threat from Iran.

 

Syria, Russia, Iran

 

Tall, with bright blue eyes and gray hair, Tzuriel became the top civil servant at the Intelligence Ministry in May 2016, taking over for Ram Ben-Barak, who left after losing out for the position of head of the Mossad. Like that of his predecessor, Tzuriel's background is in the clandestine Mossad spy agency, where he served for 28 years.

 

A map of Tehran hangs on the wall behind his desk and an official-looking hat bearing the emblem of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps sits on his bookshelf, but it's Syria and the war there that occupy his mind, he said.

 

In a sense, the six-year-long war in Syria has already had a massive impact on the world, Tzuriel said, citing scores of terrorists and millions of immigrants who exited the country and left their mark across the globe. "In that respect, it is no exaggeration to say that the Syrian civil war has, to some extent, influenced important developments way outside its borders, such as Brexit and even the election in the US," he said.

 

Recent developments in Syria have created "a strong imbalance in the region to Iran's benefit," said Tzuriel.

 

And yet, since Moscow decided to take a more engaged role in the conflict, actively supporting the Assad regime, Iran's role as Damascus's main backer has been diminished, he said.

 

"Russia has become the dominant power in Syria," he said, adding that Moscow achieved that feat despite investing remarkably minor resources into the civil war. "The Russians have managed to become the key player with only a few dozen aircraft. That's proof that political will and the readiness to use military force are key."

 

On Tuesday, Russia, along with China and Bolivia, vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution that would have sanctioned Syrian officials over the regime's illicit use of chemical weapons. The US and other Western powers on the council voted in favor of the resolution and denounced Moscow for blocking it.

 

Besides treating wounded civilians on the border and attacking weapons convoys deemed a strategic threat, Israel has so far stayed out of the war. However, Tzuriel said, the US's continued involvement is crucial to Israel's interest in seeing Iran kept from extending hegemony to Syria, allowing the Islamic Republic to link Tehran and Beirut.

 

"For Israel, it is important to see the US remaining active in Syria and the region," he said.

 

Criticizing the previous US administration, he said president Barack Obama's decision, in 2013, to not use military force against Assad's regime despite its use of chemical weapons "was a pivotal moment for the entire region."

 

"This moment changed everything," said Tzuriel, who served as the Mossad's representative to the US a few years ago."It showed [Russian President Vladimir] Putin that the US was not willing to use force. It opened the door for Russia to take center stage."

 

For Israel, the most important issue in Syria is making sure Iran and its proxies aren't able to set up a base to attack Israel from.

 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to travel to Moscow in the coming days to further discuss Israeli-Russian coordination regarding Syria. He has said Israel will oppose any peace agreement that would allow Iran and its Shiite proxies any foothold there.

 

"If Iran and Hezbollah manage to base themselves in Syria, it would be a permanent source of instability in the entire region," Tzuriel explained, referring specifically to the threat of an Iranian naval base on the Mediterranean. "It would also bring instability to areas with Sunni minorities outside the Middle East."

 

'Obama didn't see Iran as part of the problem. Trump does'

 

Despite the supreme focus on Syria, the Iranian nuclear program remains high on Israel's agenda, Tzuriel said. Affirming Jerusalem's general objection to the nuclear pact Iran and six world powers signed in 2015, he confirmed that, so far, Tehran "abides by the terms of the deal."

 

But the world may have "bought the present in exchange for the future," he said.

 

"The main problem with the deal is that it allows the regime to build advanced centrifuges. These centrifuges will enable Tehran to build several nuclear bombs in much less time than they did before the deal with the old centrifuges," he said.

 

Stopping short of calling for the deal to be torn up, he said it would be good "if there was a way to improve the terms of the deal and advance other resolutions that deal with the Iranian missile program and support of terror organizations."

 

As opposed to the Obama administration, Trump has indicated a tough policy vis-a-vis Tehran. It is noteworthy that the new president said that he will "never" allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon capability, Tzuriel said.

 

"The feeling in Israel was that Obama didn't see Iran as part of the problem. Trump, by contrast, appears to view Iran as part of the problem."

 

Iran-Allied Shiite Militias in Iraq to Threaten U.S. After Mosul Falls - Edwin Mora - http://www.breitbart.com

 

The U.S.-led coalition and its Iraqi partners should be vigilant against a near certain reemergence attempt by the Islamic State (ISIS/ISIL) after it loses its territory in Iraq, where tens of thousands of Iran-allied Shiite militias pose just as serious of a threat to America's interests, experts warned.

 

Dr. Michael Knights, a Boston-based fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy that champions conservative perspectives, and Hardin Lang, a fellow at the liberal Center for American Progress (CAP), testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

 

They suggested that the United States should leave behind a military force of between 3,000 to 5,000 troops to continue working with their Iraqi counterparts for at least three years.

 

Dr. Knights specifically warned against withdrawing American troops from the country prematurely, adding, "Just two and a half years after the U.S. military left the country, ISIL took over Mosul and a third of Iraq. ISIL's success and the complete and hasty withdrawal of U.S. military support to Iraq was no coincidence."

 

Meanwhile, Lang reminded lawmakers that Shiite, or Shia, militiamen backed by Iran killed about 500 American troops in Iraq between 2003 and 2011.

 

"We need to make smart choices now while we are still keenly focused on the threats to U.S. interests that are present in Iraq," testified Dr. Knights, according to his prepared remarks. "These threats include not only ISIL but also Shia militias groups that parasitically exploit ISIL's presence and which make up part of the Iranian threat network discussed in this committee earlier this month."

 

"The regime in the Tehran, the world's largest state sponsor of terrorism, has an ambitious agenda inside Iraq," he added. "Tehran seeks to exploit the justifiable fear of ISIL that is felt by Iraqi Shia majority in Iraq."

 

When alluding to the Shiite fighters, Lang singled out the Iraqi government-sanctioned Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an Iran-affiliated umbrella network of mainly Shiite fighters currently fighting ISIS in Iraq.

 

Th PMF represents the largest alliance of all Shiite militias in Iraq and is also known as the Popular Mobilization Units (PMF) and al-Hashd al-Shabi.

 

Lang estimates the size of the Shiite militia force in Iraq to be between 100,000 and 120,000.

 

In his written testimony, the CAP expert acknowledged that "one of the biggest threats to reconciliation [primarily between Sunnis and Shias] remains sectarian Shia militias, adding:

 

There is a very real risk that the PMF could take root as a Hezbollah-style Iranian [terrorist] proxy. Such a development would threaten Iraqi sovereignty and undercut attempts at national reconciliation. There are no easy solutions to managing the threat posed by Iranian- backed PMF units, but the U.S. could play a constructive role in facilitating the demobilization or integration of the remaining PMF units into the ISF [Iraqi Security Forces].

 

While participating in the ongoing Mosul offensive in Iraq, the U.S. military is providing assistance to the PMF.

 

The Pentagon says it is only providing support to Shiite militiamen vetted for links to Iran and terrorist groups, as mandated by law.

 

"A large proportion [of the PMF] receives direct Iranian backing," testified Lang. The CAP expert acknowledged that U.S. policy towards the PMF changed under former President Barack Obama.

 

"In 2014, U.S. refused to provide them military support, but since mid-2015, American policy has evolved to include air and other support for those PMF units not beholden to Iran," he explained, noting that the Iraqi parliament legalized the PMF in November 2016.

 

Some news reports have accused the U.S. military of providing support to all Shiite militiamen, including those linked to Iran who may have American blood on their hands. The Pentagon has denied the allegations.

 

Iran says it test-fired missile from submarine - http://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-says-it-test-fired-missile-from-submarine/

 

In latest series of launches, laser-guided missile also fired; US reimposed some sanctions after January tests

 

Amid tensions with the United States, Iran announced on Monday that it tested two missiles during a series of naval drills in the Persian Gulf. One was fired from a submarine, it said.

 

Iranian Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan said the Nasir missile, which he described as Iran's latest submarine launched cruise missile, "successfully hit its target" during its test launch, the official IRNA news agency reported.

 

Tasnim news agency said the Dehlaviyeh, a laser-guided missile, had also been successfully tested.

 

It was reported back in 2012 that Iran had based the Dehlaviyeh on a Russian anti-tank missile.

 

The ranges of the two missiles were not given.

 

The most recent Iranian missile firings follow the launches of a ballistic missile and cruise missile in late January - both of which are nuclear capable - with the former resulting in new US sanctions on a number of entities involved in Iran's ballistic missile program and a warning from US President Donald Trump that the Islamic Republic had been "put on notice" and that "nothing is off the table" in terms of a military response to perceived Iranian provocations.

 

Cruise missiles - such as the Nasir fired in the most recent missile launches - are not covered by UN Resolution 2231, which was passed shortly after the nuclear deal with Iran was signed in July 2015 and calls on Tehran "not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using such ballistic missile technology." Iran argues that its ballistic missile program is also not covered by the resolution because it does not have a nuclear weapons program.

 

However, the test is likely to be viewed in Israel and the US as another aggressive maneuver by Tehran to expand its missile program.

 

Since Trump's inauguration in January, there has been a marked increase in tensions between the the US and Iran, with a number of senior Iranian military officials issuing pointed warnings to the US if it takes military action over the Islamic Republic's nuclear program.