WORLD AT WAR: 3.25.17 - What threatens Israel the most - Hezbollah rockets or Iranian nukes?

What threatens Israel the most - Hezbollah rockets or Iranian nukes? - Yonah Jeremy Bob - http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Mossad-IDF-chiefs-differ-on-main-threat-to-Israel-Hezbollah-or-Iran-484768

 

Comments come after recent military exchanges between the IDF, the Syrian Assad regime and Hezbollah.

 

Mossad Director Yossi Cohen and IDF Chief-of-Staff Lt.-Gen. Gadi Eisenkot took different takes on Tuesday in defining Israel's number one threat, with Cohen focusing on Iran and Eisenkot opting for Hezbollah.

 

Cohen told a conference at Netanya University in honor of former Mossad chief Meir Dagan that, "as long as the current regime is in control, whether with a nuclear deal or without one, Iran will continue to be the central threat to Israel."

 

He added that Iran has not give up on its drive for a nuclear bomb and that after Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas and terrorism generally were the next biggest threat.

 

The Mossad chief continued, "Iran wants to have influence and be a key mover in the Middle East. Its tactics have changed due to pressures, but the intent and the trend remain. He added that Israel needs "to be ready and embrace opportunities" for cooperation with allies regarding such threats.

 

Cohen's comments were striking as they come with most of the region currently focused on recent days' military exchanges between the IDF, the Syrian Assad regime and Hezbollah. They were also notable given Eisenkot's focus on the threat from Hezbollah and issues with Syria.

 

While Eisenkot did eventually mention Iran at the end of a long list of threats - consistent with some past statements from top IDF officials that Hezbollah currently poses a greater threat than Iran - most of his discussion was about the Hezbollah-Assad threat.

 

Eisenkot said at the conference Tuesday that the army would continue to work to prevent advanced weaponry from getting into the hands of the wrong people.

 

The IDF chief made the comments days after Syrian government forces fired an anti-aircraft missile at Israel Air Force jets during an airstrike last Friday to halt the flow of advanced weapons to Hezbollah near Palmyra.

 

He stated that one of the army's missions was to "prevent the strengthening of those who should not be strengthened by [the acquisition of] advanced weaponry." He said that the IDF's policy regarding the Syrian civil war was one of "non-intervention alongside preserving our interests."

 

Eisenkot asserted that it was in Israel's interest to keep the northern border quiet, as it had managed to do over the past six years despite the civil war raging in Syria.

 

The IDF chief's comments came after a rare acknowledgment of the rising tensions on the Israel-Syrian border from Syrian President Bashar Assad on Monday.

 

"Defending our borders is our right, and it's our duty, not only our right," he told Russian reporters in Damascus according Russian news site Sputnik.

 

Assad also told Russian parliament members, who paid an official visit to the capital on Monday, that he was counting on Moscow to prevent Israel from attacking his country in the future.

 

"We are counting on Russia to prevent a conflict with Israel," Assad was quoted as saying by several Russian media outlets.

 

On Friday, Israel's Ambassador to Russia Gary Koren was summoned to the Foreign Ministry in Moscow to defend the airstrike. According to media reports, the strike occurred very close to Russian troops.

 

In other remarks at Tuesday's conference, Cohen said that, these days, "the new buzz word is 'hybrid strategy.' The idea is to act simultaneously with a diversity of means in addressing an ever-changing mix" of threats.

 

The Mossad chief meanwhile stated that, "our security establishment must focus on our enemies in the region, to learn about them, to understand them in-depth and to use force against them when required."

 

"The Middle East is our home field and therefore we need to be involved in all matters in the region. We need to form alliances, to identify mutual interests with allies, and also with enemies on certain issues," said Cohen.

 

Referring to Dagan, the namesake of the conference, he said, "Meir Dagan bequeathed us a tradition and a determination to fight for Israel and to take any actions necessary to accomplish this."

 

Is Assad shifting strategy on Israel? - Ben Caspit - http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/03/israel-syria-lebanon-idf-assad-hezbollah-strategy-missiles.html

 

In an unexpected incident, Israel activated its Arrow missile-defense system March 17, targeting a fragment of a Syrian anti-aircraft missile.

 

This incident forced Israel to publicly admit (a first such admission in a long time) that the targeted Syrian missiles were aimed at Israel Defense Forces (IDF) jets that had previously attacked strategic weapons deep in Syria, weapons that were intended for Hezbollah. Forty-eight hours later, another airstrike took place, hitting a vehicle traveling between Quneitra and Khan Arnabeh in the Syrian Golan Heights. The vehicle was destroyed and its driver, Yasser al-Sayed, was killed on the spot. Sayed was a member of a pro-regime militia and had been close to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Evidently, from the Syrian Golan, he had tried to carry out Assad- and Hezbollah-inspired terror attacks against Israel. Israel, for its part, adopted a policy of ambiguity and did not address this incident. But the media are convinced this was Israel's second airstrike in Syria in two days; that someone in Jerusalem is trying to change the fragile rules of the game that reign on Israel's northern front. There are those who think that this "someone" is not even trying to avoid a flare-up; perhaps, on the contrary, he is even trying to cause one.

 

In the first incident, things went from bad to worse, dragging the five sides of the complex power struggle on the northern front (Israel, Syria, Russia, Hezbollah and Iran) to the very edge of their political cliffs. As mentioned, the Syrians launched anti-aircraft missiles against Israeli planes in an unusual move; Israel then brought down one of the missiles via an Arrow missile; then the Russians summoned Israel's ambassador for a reprimand.

 

In addition, Israel violated all precedents and bragged about its actions. Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman festively stated that the next time the Syrians launch anti-aircraft missiles against Israeli air force planes, Israel will destroy the other side's air defense system. Liberman added March 19 that every time Israel discerns attempts to transfer tie-breaking weapons from Syria to Hezbollah, its military will take action to thwart this. Liberman did not address that the Russians rebuked Israel publicly and summoned the Israeli ambassador in Moscow to an urgent clarification talk the night of March 17.

 

A senior Israeli security source told Al-Monitor that this did not constitute a true crisis between the two countries. Instead, it was a Russian attempt to mollify Russian President Vladimir Putin's strategic partners: the Syrian regime, Hezbollah and Iran. These partners view the Israeli actions as flagrant violations of the balance of power in the area and an ongoing attempt to harm Syrian sovereignty. "I wouldn't tell anyone to belittle the Russian reprimand," said the source, talking on condition of anonymity, "but I also don't think there's need for panic. Russia is facing a lot of criticism for continuing to allow Israel to operate in the depths of Syria. They tried to convey an impression by which they are unhappy with Israel."

 

The educated guess is that Israeli air force F-16 jets struck a convoy of Scud missiles that are capable of reaching a range of 750 kilometers (466 miles) - and can each carry a warhead weighing half a ton. This kind of weaponry is, evidently, included on the Israeli "blacklist" of arms that it does not allow to be transferred to Hezbollah: long-range surface-to-surface missiles with greater accuracy (such as Scud-D missiles); surface-to-sea missiles, such as the infamous Yakhont supersonic missiles (which endanger the Israeli navy and Israeli gas rigs); modernized anti-aircraft missiles; and chemical weapons.

 

Allegedly, every time Israeli intelligence gets wind of an attempt to transfer this kind of weaponry from Syria to Lebanon, the air force is activated. However, this time, an unexpected mishap took place. Contrary to habit, the Syrians launched several S-200 missiles at the Israeli air force planes. The missiles themselves did not endanger the planes. However, one of the missiles evidently rose up very high. When it began to skydive, the Arrow's radar system took it for a ballistic missile coming from afar. Its system went into action and launched an Arrow rocket that hit a fragment of the Syrian missile and intercepted it at a great height.

 

This was, on the one hand, a showcase for a uniquely successful operational activation of the Israeli Arrow missile. On the other hand, the incident exposed the Israeli strike and prevented Israel from maintaining its usual tight-lipped policy of ambiguity. It also forced the Russians to take action and summon the Israeli ambassador. But in general, what the incident laid bare is the extent to which the northern front can still be explosive. One isolated incident can instigate a chain reaction of responses and activities that create a domino effect, causing a regional flare-up.

 

"Assad's self-confidence is on the rise," an Israeli military source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. "He is no longer fighting for his life, his regime is more stable. Now it's clear that he's here to stay. Under this state of affairs, he wants to change the rules of the game, rules created in recent years. Assad wants to close the window, which, in his view, allows Israel to continue to strike Syrian territory. That is evidently the reason for his launching of the anti-aircraft missiles." It is important to note that this is not the first time the Syrians have launched anti-aircraft missiles against the IDF. What sets aside this incident from previous ones is that the Russians also intervened.

 

To complicate things even further, the second abovementioned incident took place March 19: A vehicle in the Syrian Golan was attacked, and a militia member closely associated with Assad was killed. This was not a strategic killing. The assessment is that although the militant was suspected of carrying out terror attacks against Israel on the Golan front, he was not viewed as someone trying to create strategic threats against Israel in the style of Hezbollah militants Jihad Mughniyeh or Samir Kuntar, both of whom were target-killed in the Golan in 2015.

 

The juxtaposition of this killing with the aerial strike in the depths of Syria might be a sign that Israel has become less careful and cautious than usual. Perhaps Israel is now taking more risks in its dangerous dance with the other parties involved in Lebanon. Israel took no responsibility for Sayed's elimination. However, on that same day, a change of authority took place in Israel's Northern Command, and some of the top brass who attended referred to the incident obliquely. Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot and outgoing Deputy Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi both said that Israel would continue to thwart terror cells and prevent the transfer of strategic weapons to Hezbollah.

 

The real question is: What causes Israel to act so freely, and what encouraged its leaders to brag in public following the March 17 incident? One possible answer may be the coalition crisis that is threatening to dismantle the Benjamin Netanyahu government. Another factor may be the ongoing investigations against the prime minister. A flare-up in the north could serve to overshadow these events and put them in the correct perspective. Liberman, who loves his job as defense minister and thus wants to lengthen the current government's life expectancy, is playing a dangerous game here. The nerves of all the players in the complex tug of war on the northern border are already frayed. Any escalation could get out of control very quickly and lead to a true inferno.

 

Perhaps that is why Eizenkot announced March 19 that "in a future war, there will be a clear address: the state of Lebanon." Such an announcement completely dovetails with my last article in Al-Monitor, and constitutes a clear warning: Hezbollah and Lebanon are no longer two separate entities. From now on, they are one and the same.

Hezbollah Building Up Massive Offensive Capabilities Against Israel - By Yaakov Lappin - http://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=1116

 

If accurate, a recent report stating that Iran had constructed underground missile factories for Hezbollah in Lebanon would indicate a disturbing boost in the Shiite terror organization's ability to self-produce weapons.

 

The Israeli defense establishment already sees Hezbollah as a powerful and radical army, rather than a 'mere' terror organization due to its deep and sophisticated weaponry, and its hierarchical command structure.

 

The ability to manufacture destructive rockets and missiles would now mean that Hezbollah is no longer entirely reliant on arms trafficking from Iran and Syria in order to wage war against Israel.

 

The recent report, made available by the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), was published in the Kuwaiti daily Al-Jarida. 

 

It cites an aide to the commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as its source. The IRGC's Quds Force is an elite unit that runs Iran's extensive overseas operations to arm, finance, and strengthen Iran's regional proxies.

 

According to the Kuwaiti report, the IRGC built the missile-making facilities more than 50 meters underground, and fortified them against air strikes before handing control over to Hezbollah three months ago.

 

According to Ely Karmon, a Hezbollah expert and a senior research scholar at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism in Herzliya, the report is well within the realm of possibility. 

 

He pointed to a 2015 statement made by the IRGC's Aerospace Force commander, Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, boasting that Tehran has provided "Syria, Iraq, Palestine and the Lebanese Hezbollah resistance group with the needed know-how to produce missiles."

 

Assessing the latest Kuwaiti report, Karmon said that it is "possible that these Hezbollah military factories are in the Quseyr area in Syria, and not in Lebanon." Quseyr is an area of western Syria that has come under Hezbollah control in recent years, after being seized from Sunni rebel organizations.

 

Israel has bombed targets in the area in the past, Karmon noted, likely as part of Israel's covert program to selectively disrupt Hezbollah's force build-up.

 

In November, Hezbollah paraded its heavy weaponry in Quseyr -- including tanks, armored personnel carriers, artillery guns and missile launchers.

 

The Kuwaiti report also claimed that "a special department has been established at the IRGC's Imam Hossein University [in Tehran] to train Lebanese and other experts, and hundreds of experts have already been trained."

 

The missile factories reportedly can produce surface-to-surface missiles with a range of more than 500 kilometers - in other words, missiles capable of hitting anywhere in Israel, as well as Israeli ships and Israel's offshore gas rigs in the Mediterranean Sea. 

 

The Hezbollah production sites can also be used to make machine guns, mortars and anti-aircraft guns.

 

Since the end of its 2006 war with Israel, Hezbollah has stockpiled an arsenal totaling 120,000 missiles -- one of the largest in the world. 

 

The vast majority of these arms were manufactured in Iran and Syria, and smuggled into Lebanon. A growing number of these weapons are guided rockets and missiles.

 

And Iranian weapons transfers to Hezbollah are continuing regardless of whether Hezbollah has access to its own missile factories. 

 

Earlier this month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu provided details about "the ongoing Iranian attempt to transfer weapons, advanced weapons, to Hezbollah, via Syria," when he visited Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

 

According to reports, Hezbollah is also training elite terror cells to infiltrate Israel during the next war, and to temporarily 'conquer' northern Israeli communities in a bid to demoralize the Jewish state.

 

These preparations, it is safe to assume, are being closely monitored by Israel.

 

Hezbollah's wartime experience fighting for the Assad regime in Syria has also boosted its power. 

 

The best form of training for combat is combat itself, and for the past four years, Hezbollah and its operatives have been fighting with Iranian commanders and technology on the battlefields of Syria.

 

Meanwhile, back in Lebanon, Hezbollah has embedded the vast majority of its bases, rocket launchers and command posts into civilian areas, including a massive maze of underground tunnels and subterranean compounds.

 

But all is not well for Hezbollah.

 

The terror group is facing a dramatic economic crisis, due to a shortage of cash flow from Iran, which is still awaiting funds from its nuclear deal with the West. 

 

Additionally, the fact that Hezbollah has sustained more than 1,500 casualties in Syria has demoralized sections of its traditional Lebanese Shiite support base.

 

Nevertheless, Hezbollah is pushing to build up its massive offensive capabilities against Israel.

 

In addition to its efforts to obtain more rockets and missiles, Hezbollah's leader -- Hassan Nasrallah -- has repeatedly threatened to strike Israeli strategic targets, such as ships carrying industrial ammonia to the Israeli city of Haifa, and Israel's nuclear reactor in Dimona.

 

This does not mean that Hezbollah is seeking a conflict with Israel right now. But it does mean that should a new war erupt in the future, Israel's civilian population will face unprecedented threats.

 

Israel's defense establishment is making its own preparations to meet these threats, and to counter Hezbollah -- which is turning into a dangerous, and even more deadly, adversary.

 

Israel Plans Mass Evacuation if War Erupts Again - http://www.breitbart.com/jerusalem/2017/03/22/israel-plans-mass-evacuation-war-erupts/

 

If Islamic militants in Gaza or Lebanon go to war with Israel, they could find their usual targets empty.

 

Israel is drawing up contingency plans to evacuate up to a quarter-million civilians from border communities to protect them from attacks from Hamas, Hezbollah or other Islamic militant groups.

 

The mass evacuations would be the biggest in Israel's history, part of a bigger plan where the army works with municipalities to keep civilians safe.

 

All sides have been preparing in case a new round of warfare breaks out, although Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed group sworn to Israel's destruction, currently is tied down in Syria's civil war fighting in support of President Bashar Assad. It also comes amid an uptick in tensions between Israel, Syria and Hezbollah.

 

Each side has warned that a new conflict would be worse than previous ones. Hezbollah fired more than 4,000 rockets on Israeli communities in the 2006 war, while Israel bombarded militant targets in southern Lebanon. The month of fighting killed an estimated 1,200 Lebanese, most of them civilians, as well as 44 Israeli civilians and 121 Israeli soldiers.

 

In 2014, 50 days of fighting between Israel and Gaza's Islamic militant Hamas rulers killed an estimated 2,100 Palestinians, six Israeli civilians and 66 Israeli soldiers. There was widespread devastation in Gaza and thousands of rockets and mortars fired by Hamas and other Islamic militants at Israeli towns and cities.

 

Israel says Hezbollah and Hamas have rebuilt larger arsenals capable of hitting the entire country. Elements of the evacuation plan, codenamed "Safe Distance," were disclosed by a senior Israeli officer in an interview to The Associated Press.

 

"In 2017, all of Israel is under threat," said Col. Itzik Bar of the military's Homefront Command. Preparations are underway for Israel to deal with "very high amounts" of incoming fire, he said.

 

Bar pointed out that Hezbollah has gained battle experience from fighting alongside Assad's forces and that Hassan Nasrallah, the Shiite group's chief, has recently increased his rhetoric about attacking Israel.

 

The idea is to "remove the threat by not having civilians there," Bar said. "We want a meeting of army and Hezbollah forces and not civilians with Hezbollah forces."

 

The evacuation plan would apply mainly to communities adjacent to the borders, he said.

 

"In places where we understand there is a great danger to civilians, for example, where we won't be able to supply defenses or supply deterrence ... we will evacuate," Bar said.

 

Evacuees would be housed in existing infrastructure, including hotels, schools and Kibbutz guest houses, he said.

 

The scope of evacuations would depend on the situation, but all told, the plans cover up to 250,000 people who would be moved to safety if there is a conflict on multiple fronts, he said. Israel has a population of about 8.5 million.

 

Small core groups would stay behind in evacuated areas to maintain vital infrastructure and ensure that communities "function the day after the fighting," he said.

 

Another senior security official, speaking on condition of anonymity in line with protocol, said the idea resulted from lessons learned in the 2014 Gaza war, in which communities were not evacuated but residents eventually left on their own.

 

Tens of thousands of Israelis left their homes near the Gaza border as the fighting dragged on, turning some areas into ghost towns. The exodus was sparked by Palestinian shelling along with the fear of heavily armed Gaza militants infiltrating Israel through tunnels.

 

Border communities vulnerable to mortars are the most in danger, he said.

 

Israel's "Iron Dome" defense system was seen as a game-changer in the 2014 war, ensuring a decisive protective edge from short-range rockets fired from Gaza. But the security official said there were not enough of the defensive systems to cover attacks on multiple fronts.

 

He said Hezbollah has significantly built up its weapons stockpile since the 2006 war and has upgraded its arsenal to about 150,000 missiles.

 

Israel has made it clear it will act to prevent Hezbollah getting advanced munitions and is widely believed to have carried out several airstrikes in recent years on weapons convoys destined for the militant group. On Friday, it made a rare admission of such a strike after Syria fired missiles at its jets.

 

However, the official said Israel fears that some advanced weapons like surface-to-sea weapons or anti-aircraft missiles might already have reached Hezbollah.

 

Israel's military chief, Lt. Gen. Gadi Eisenkot, told an academic conference Tuesday that Hezbollah's top military commander was killed in Syria in May 2016 by rivals within the group. The announcement was the latest sign of an escalating feud between Israel and Hezbollah.

 

He said the death of Mustafa Badreddine illustrated "the depth of the internal crisis within Hezbollah." He also said it reflected "the extent of the cruelty, complexity and tension between Hezbollah and its patron Iran."

 

An Israeli military official said Israel believes the order to kill Badreddine was given by Hezbollah's leader Nasrallah.

 

Israeli intelligence believes Badreddine had been feuding with Iranian military commanders in Syria over the heavy losses his group had suffered on the battlefield.

 

Israel, meanwhile, has been building up its missile defenses. A system called "David's Sling" to intercept medium-range missiles from Hezbollah is due to become operational in early April. That would mark the completion of a multilayer missile defense system that includes Iron Dome and Arrow, designed to intercept long-range ballistic missiles - of the type possessed by Iran - high in the stratosphere.

 

The military also has vastly improved its early warning systems, according to Bar, the Israeli colonel.

 

Technology has come a long way since 1991 when air raid sirens sent Israelis nationwide scurrying to bomb shelters when Iraq fired Scud missiles at Tel Aviv. In the 2014 Gaza war, sirens warned of incoming rocket attacks on wide areas.

 

Bar said the system has been narrowed down and improved "dramatically" with more than 3,000 different warning zones. Now only civilians in the line of fire will need to take shelter, while others in the same city won't, he said.

 

An annual intelligence assessment found Hezbollah or Hamas probably are not interested in sparking a war in 2017, but it warned of the danger of a dynamic of escalation leading to conflict. In February, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said Hezbollah was not seeking a resumption of hostilities. But he vowed that if war did begin, his forces would strike Israel's Dimona nuclear facilities,

 

Israeli officials have in turn escalated the rhetoric with Lebanon, citing concern about recent comments made by Lebanese President Michel Aoun, a strong Hezbollah ally who was elected head of state in October.

 

In an interview last month with an Egyptian TV network, Aoun said Hezbollah "has a complementary role" to the Lebanese army. As long as the Lebanese army is not strong enough to battle Israel ... we feel the need for its existence," he said. The army's newly appointed commander also has vowed to boost its capabilities.

 

Several Hamas officials say the group does not seek a confrontation with Israel now, but that it has developed its arsenal and restored its capabilities to even greater amount than before the 2014 war. They did not specify numbers.

 

Reports in Gaza suggest Hamas completed repairs to dozens of attack tunnels used to infiltrate Israel that were damaged in 2014.

Iran-North Korea Nuclear Cooperation - By Barney Breen-Portnoy - http://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=1105

 

Paying attention to any potential nuclear cooperation between Iran and North Korea should be a priority for the Trump administration, a proliferation expert told The Algemeiner on Thursday.

 

"I think the main thing is to try to discover it," David Albright -- head of the Institute for Science and International Security think tank -- said. "We know it [cooperation] happens in the missile and conventional weapons areas. As for the nuclear area, we look at it as an open question. 

 

We haven't seen enough evidence yet to make an actual accusation, we just don't know. But I think there is a real risk that Iran and North Korea could cooperate on nuclear matters. It requires a lot of attention from our intelligence services."

 

"If it turns out such cooperation does exist, an argument could be made that it's a violation of the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action]," Albright went on to say. 

 

"Whether it in fact is or not, lawyers would have to decide. It would depend on the exact type of cooperation. But the bottom line is you have to develop more resources to try to figure if it's going on. And a revelation that it is going on would be quite damaging to Iran."

 

There are two types of know-how Iran and North Korea could share, Albright said. 

 

The first, he noted is "more traditional information about building nuclear weapons and testing nuclear weapons, which North Korea certainly has plenty of to give to Iran." And the second is "reentry vehicle technology for a nuclear warhead."

 

"Iran is freer to conduct reentry vehicle tests than North Korea," Albright explained. "So both could benefit. 

 

It would look like missile cooperation, which is more tolerated, but in fact it could end up being a way to help both countries be able to mount a nuclear warhead on a ballistic missile."

 

In a recently published paper, Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies analysts Refael Ofek and Dany Shoham claimed that Iran was "steadily making progress towards a nuclear weapon" with help from North Korea.

 

The Pyongyang regime, they wrote, was "ready and able" to give the Islamic Republic a "clandestine means of circumventing" the July 2015 nuclear deal it agreed to with six world powers.

 

"At the same time," they added, "Iran is likely assisting in the upgrading of certain North Korean strategic capacities."

 

Anthony Ruggiero -- a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank -- noted in a policy brief on Wednesday, "What happens in North Korea rarely stays there, and Pyongyang has likely proliferated nuclear technology in secret to at least two countries: Syria and Libya. 

 

Likewise, a North Korea-Iran nuclear relationship would be difficult to detect. And while North Korea will not sell complete nuclear weapons or fissile material for nuclear weapons -- as these are critical to the regime's survival -- it will sell other parts of its program, as well as its expertise."

 

"Perhaps most disconcerting, there are no international mechanisms to detect scientific activity inside North Korea," he continued. 

 

"The hermit kingdom controls information flow, especially on its strategic programs, and IAEA inspectors are not permitted access to its nuclear program."

 

"For over 20 years, the US has failed to counter North Korea's growing nuclear and ballistic missile threat. Pyongyang-Tehran nuclear cooperation would be cause for even greater alarm," Ruggiero concluded.

 

 

IDF Chief of Staff: Next War Will Be with Hezbollah - By Ilana Messika - https://www.breakingisraelnews.com/85297/idf-chief-staff-next-war-will-hezbollah/#9E7e4h4x2k7UVbib.97

 

"A time to love, and a time to hate; a time for war, and a time for peace." Ecclesiastes 3:8 (The Israel Bible�)

 

IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot said Sunday that Israel's next war would be fought against Hezbollah, the Lebanese terror group that currently operates in in the Bekaa Valley, the southern suburbs of Beirut and southern Lebanon, adjacent to the Israeli border.

 

Speaking at a ceremony marking the transfer of leadership over the IDF Northern Command from Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi to Maj. Gen. Yoel Strick, Eizenkot said the IDF was not fooled by the recent silence from Hezbollah and that the IDF continues to follow developments in Lebanon and Syria with extreme vigilance.

 

"The Hezbollah group continues in its efforts to mobilize and arm itself with increasingly precise and deadly weaponry in order to harm the Israeli heartland. We endeavor to protect the security interests [of Israel] and operate in order to prevent transfer of advanced weapons to Hezbollah, and we will continue to do so in the future," Eisenkot said.

 

In 2006 the two sides fought a 50-day war after Hezbollah kidnapped three Israeli soldiers in a cross-border attack. The Israeli air force destroyed much of Hezbollah's military capability during the fighting but the group has steadily increased its strength over the ensuing years.

 

More recently, the terror group has kept the border with Israel quiet, but military officials in Israel view Hezbollah as a well-trained, well-equipped army. The group has taken an active role in the Syrian civil war, with Hezbollah forces fighting to keep President Bashar al-Assad in power. At the same time, Iran has helped the group expand its missile capability, both in terms of quantity and quality, and Hezbollah members have gained valuable combat experience in Syria.

 

Eizenkot's remarks followed a report yesterday (Sunday) by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights confirming that Israeli warplanes bombed a car on a road last Friday near the Syrian town of Quneitra, located in the Golan Heights near the Israeli border. The driver was killed in the attack, but neither Damascus nor Jerusalem has responded to the report.

 

Also last week, IAF aircraft attacked and destroyed a shipment of what has been reported as a strategic weapons shipment destined for Hezbollah. The IDF spokesperson confirmed the attack, but did not release any information relating to the target. The attack was in response to the Arrow missile defense system successfully intercepting incoming Syrian missile as an apparent message to Russian President Vladimir Putin that Israel will act to block weapons shipments and will not tolerate Iranian involvement near the Syria-Israel border.

 

Netanyahu met with Putin on March 9 to discuss Iran's aspirations to establish dominion over parts of Syria, including plans to construct a naval base at Latakia, following the conclusion of the civil war.

 

Netanyahu told Putin that Israel does not oppose any political arrangement for Syria as long as doesn't include the permanent presence of Iran or one of its proxies near the Israeli border.

 

The prime minister and Defense Minister Liberman have repeatedly stated that Israel will not permit Iran to transfer advanced weaponry to Hezbollah and would act to defend the country's security.

 

Incoming Maj. Gen. Yoel Strick stated that the reality in the north continues to shift at a very rapid pace and that the IDF will continue to enhance deterrence capabilities to prevent war. But added that if war should be break out the army would respond with determination and force.

 

Kochavi also emphasized a turbulent Middle East, but also said that Israel strives to maintain a unique balance of military strength with humanitarian concern.

 

"On one hand, [we] thwart enemy cells, and on the other [we] bring wounded civilians and children from an enemy country to Israel for medical treatment," Kochavi said.

 

Kochavi will be promoted to deputy Chief of Staff.

 

 

Syria And Israel - One Missile Away from Conflict - http://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=1106

 

The firing of S-200 missiles by Syria at Israeli air force planes on Thursday night marked a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict between the two nations, who are technically still at war.

 

Over the past few years there has been several airstrikes carried out by Israel against targets in Syria, most believed to be related to weapons transfers to Hezbollah. 

 

Both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman have stated publicly that Israel will do whatever is necessary to prevent "game changing weapons" getting into the hands of this terrorist group.

 

Israel does not usually confirm or deny such attacks, but it was forced to do so this time by the circumstances of the incident, including the firing of the Arrow defense system. 

 

The Arrow's first-ever operational interception was the result of Syria's air-defense forces launching a long-rane S-200 missile in an attempt to shoot down Israeli planes.  Syria's military has claimed it downed one of the Israeli planes and hit another, however Israel denies any of it's planes were hit. 

 

The loud explosion that many residents of the region heard as far away as Jerusalem was the interception by the Arrow 2 missile, which was forced to fire due to the long rang missile endangering civilian populations.  

 

The Syrian retaliatory missile launch occurred when IAF aircraft had already passed into Israeli airspace and had now become a direct threat to civilian populations.  

 

Parts of the missile have been found in Jordan which also forced Israel to issue an official explanation for the event.

 

Many analysts believe the firing of the missile demonstrates a new confidence by Assad in the region after winning several key battles with rebels and ISIS, including the important city of Aleppo.  

 

Perhaps even more important is the strategic backing of Russia which seems to guarantee his survival as Syria's continued leader.

 

With this being the most serious incident between the two countries in many years, the big question is what happens next time?  

 

Arms shipments to Hezbollah are unlikely to stop and neither is Israel's response to what it says are "red lines" that can't be crossed.

 

Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman may have already answered the question when he responded to the incident on Sunday threatening to destroy Syrian air defense systems should they fire on Israel again.

 

How Russia Is Turning Syria into a Major Naval Base for Nuclear Warships (and Israel Is Worried) - Michael Peck - http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/how-russia-turning-syria-major-naval-base-nuclear-warships-19813

 

During the 1970s, the Syrian naval base of Tartus became a major port servicing warships of the Soviet Union's Fifth Mediterranean squadron.

 

The Soviet Union is gone, and so is Syria as a unified nation. But Russia is back, and it's building up Tartus again as a naval base that can handle Russia's largest nuclear-powered ships.

 

Already, Israel says the Tartus base is affecting its naval operations. U.S. and NATO operations could be next.

 

Under the forty-nine-year agreement inked late last year by Russia and Syria, "the maximum number of the Russian warships allowed at the Russian naval facility at one time is 11, including nuclear-powered warships, providing that nuclear and ecological security rules are observed," according to Russia's RT news site. Russia will also be allowed to expand port facilities to accommodate the vessels.

 

The specification allowing nuclear-powered warships means that Russia wants to be able to base in Syria large surface ships, namely Kirov-class nuclear-powered battle cruisers, as well as nuclear submarines.

 

In addition, the treaty allows "Russia is allowed to bring in and out any kind of 'weaponry, ammunition, devices and materials' to provide security for the facility staff, crew, and their families throughout the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic 'without any duties or levies,'" according to RT.

 

Expansion of the port will take about five years, according to an anonymous source cited in Russia's Sputnik News. "The source added that the works would focus on dredging operations to allow cruisers and even possibly aircraft carriers to use the facility's infrastructure," Sputnik News reported. "According to the source, Russia also needs to develop the facility's ground infrastructure, through construction of canalization, electricity generation facilities and barracks for the servicemen."

 

Sputnik News also listed other provisions of the agreement. These include:

 

* Russia will be responsible for sea and air security of the base, while Syria handles the land defenses.

* Russia can deploy "temporary mobile outposts" beyond the base, as long as they coordinate them with the Syrians.

* Russia can renovate the base at will, including underwater construction, and build offshore platforms.

* Upon Syrian request, Russia will send specialists to service Syrian warships, conduct search and rescue in Syrian waters, and organize the defense of Tartus.

* Syria agrees not to "make any objections related to the military activities of the base, which will also be beyond Damascus' jurisdiction."

* "Syria also pledges to solve any conflicts that may arise if a third party objects to the activities of the base."

 

The Tartus deal is significant on several levels. For starters, the explicit mention of Tartus servicing nuclear-powered ships suggests that Russia may operate its biggest ships in the eastern Mediterranean, such as the nuclear battle cruiser Peter the Great. At the least, it indicates that nuclear submarines could be based at Tartus.

 

That Russia can put deploy outposts beyond the base suggests that Russia will take an expansive view of defending Tartus against rebel attacks. Russia will also be responsible for sea and air security at Tartus. Yet since the Syrian rebels don't have a navy or air force-but the Americans and the Israelis do-this indicates that Moscow is eyeing Tartus through the lens of a possible conflict with outside powers.

 

However, the agreement also contains two contradictory provisions. On the one hand, it bars Syria from objecting to Russian military activities at the base, which will not be under Syrian jurisdiction. So, if Russian ships and aircraft ever decide to harass NATO and Israeli forces in the Mediterranean-just as Russia has done in the Black Sea-then Syria can't stop them.

 

On the other hand, Syria is obligated to "solve any conflicts" if a "third party" objects to the activities at the Tartus base. If this means that the United States or Israel complains, then Syria must resolve the problem-even though it has no jurisdiction over the base or operations conducted from there.

 

In any event, Israel has gotten the message. "There have been instances in which we assessed the situation and changed or chose not to carry out operations," Rear Adm. Dror Friedman, Israeli Navy chief of staff, told the Jerusalem Post.

 

"You see their activities in the field and you see them putting down roots, you see their activities in the Port of Tartus and you understand that this isn't the activity of someone who is planning to pack their bags and leave tomorrow morning."