RUSSIAN UPDATE: 3.18.17 - Russia Appears Gearing Up For Another Intervention In A Middle Eastern War

 

Russia Appears Gearing Up For Another Intervention In A Middle Eastern War - by Yochanan Visser - http://www.westernjournalism.com/russia-appears-gearing-another-intervention-middle-eastern-war/

 

"Moscow is clearly testing the waters ..."

 

Russia appears to be planning to interfere in another prolonged Middle Eastern war, Reuters and other media reported on Tuesday.

 

U.S. and Egyptian diplomatic sources told Reuters that Russian Special Forces had arrived at an airbase in western Egypt near the border with Libya over the past few days.

 

U.S. intelligence services had observed how Russian Special Forces and drones had been flown in to Sidi Barrani in Egypt some 65 miles from the Libyan border but Egypt denied the claims and said that there were no Russian forces in the country.

 

The Russians will reportedly interfere in the Libyan war on behalf of military commander Khalifa Haftar, who heads the opposition against the UN-backed Government of National Accord, led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, which has suffered some setbacks recently.

 

Haftar visited Russia repeatedly last year and paid an unexpected visit to the Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov earlier this month when the vessel was cruising the waters opposite the Libyan city of Tobruk.

 

The Libyan opposition leader reportedly spoke with high-ranking Russian military officials and conducted a video call from the ship with defense minister Sergei Shoigu.

 

"Moscow is clearly testing the waters with respect to tipping the political and military balance towards Libya's east," Ethan Chorin, a former Tripoli-based U.S. diplomat told Reuters.

 

Chorin also said Moscow is looking "to project influence in the southern and eastern Mediterranean and (for) increased influence over Libya's oil and gas resources."

 

The United States top commander for northern Africa,  Marine Gen. Thomas Waldhauser, told the Senate Armed Services Committee the Russian moves near the Libyan border are "very concerning" to the U.S.

 

Committee member Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., asked Waldhauser what he thought about the apparent deployment of Russian forces in Libya.

 

"Senator, Russia is trying to exert influence on the ultimate decision of who becomes, and what entity becomes, in charge of the government inside Libya," Waldhauser said. "They're working to influence that decision."

 

Waldhauser said the current situation in Libya is "very fractured" and ISIS still poses a threat despite the defeat in its stronghold Sirte.

 

"The status of ISIS in Libya is they, right now, are regrouping. They're in small numbers, small groups. We try to develop intelligence," the commander told the committee.

 

He said the instability in Libya and other countries in northern Africa is a "significant near-term threat" to the U.S. and its allies. He called for continuous pressure on Islamic State in Libya in order to save the government of al-Sarraj.

 

Russian presence in the frontlines of the Libyan civil war is not a new phenomenon but the deployment of forces of the Russian army would be a game changer on the scale of Putin's intervention in Syria in September 2015, when the Russians saved the regime of Bashar al-Assad.

 

Haftar used privately armed Russian security contractors who operated in the warn-torn country until last month when they completed their mission of removing mines in industrial complexes near Benghazi in east Libya.

 

The opposition leader, who served in the Libyan army under Gadaffi, is seen by Moscow as a strongman who can finally end six years of chaos and anarchy in Libya and put an end to a situation whereby the country is run by two different governments - one in eastern Libya and the other, the UN-backed Government of National Accord, in the capital Tripoli.

 

Forces loyal to the Libyan parliament in the eastern part of the country scored a major victory Tuesday when they seized major oil facilities in Ras Lanuf and al-Sidra from Islamist-allied militias.

 

The oil facilities were captured March 3 by the Islamist rebel coalition and have been the scene of fierce fighting ever since the fall of Gadaffi in the autumn of 2011.

 

Russian elite units land on Egypt-Libya border - http://www.debka.com/article/25963/Russian-elite-units-land-on-Egypt-Libya-border

 

Russian elite units armed with attack drones were detected on Tuesday, March 14 landing at the big Egyptian air base of Sidi Barrani in the Western Desert near the Libyan border, US military sources reported The incoming Russian troops took up position 95 km from the Libyan border and 240km from the eastern Libyan oil and gas terminals at Tobruk port in eastern Libya. They arrived after their Libyan ally suffered a major defeat.

 

On March 3, Gen. Khalifa Hafter's Libyan National Army (LNA) militia was attacked in the central region by the rival Benghazi Defense Brigades and driven out of five towns, including the country's biggest oil terminals at Ras Sidi and Ras Lanuf.

 

Officials in Washington, Moscow and Cairo declined to comment on whether or not the Russians had acted in coordination the Trump administration.

 

According to debkafile's military sources, the Russians an Egyptians appear to be preparing to support a counter-offensive by Hafter's militia to recover the oil facilities.

 

For some months now, Moscow, Cairo and Qatar have been working together to bolster Gen. Haftar, who strongly challenges the UN-backed government of Tripoli. His LNA has taken delivery of Russian fighter jets and tanks, while the Egyptian air force has bombed the mostly Islamist militias fighting him, some of them branches of the Islamic State or Al Qaeda.

 

Although Haftar's troops are engaged in battle with rival militias across a broad swathe of territory, from Sirte in central Libya to Tobruk in the east, his main objective is to seize control of the oil and gas fields and refineries in the eastern ports.

 

For President Vladimir Putin, support for Gen, Hafter is a key step in Russia's military and strategic reach for footholds across the Middle East. He has chosen Tobruk as the next Russian air and naval base in the Mediterranean as a counterpoint to Latakia in Syria. Hafter's LNA will provide protection.

 

debkafile first picked up on this development three months ago, when our military sources spotted the Russian aircraft carrier, Admiral Kuznetsov leaving Syrian waters and heading west. The carrier sailed into Tobruk port on Jan. 12. Gen. Hafter was invited on board for a tour of the ship's facilities and connected to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in his Moscow office for a videotaped chat. This was an exceptional gesture on Moscow's part in support of a controversial Middle East figure.

 

More recently, the Libyan general visited Cairo to discuss the details of cooperation between the Egyptian army and the LNA with President Abdel-Fatteh El-Sisi.

 

 

Russia digs its tentacles further into the Middle East - By Seth J. Frantzman - http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Russia-digs-its-tentacles-further-into-the-Middle-East-484148

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin is especially keen on exerting his country's influence on conflict-worn Libya.

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been busy in the Middle East this month. On March 9 he met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The next day he met Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and on March 14 Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov met Libyan general Khalifa Haftar's envoy in Moscow.

 

Since Libya fell into civil conflict after 2011, Haftar has emerged as the most powerful leader in eastern Libya. Reports have emerged that Russia has sent special forces to Egypt, eyeing a Libya role. The decisions by Russia represent an increase of its influence in the region. The Kremlin is already the key powerbroker in Syria, so what is Moscow up to in Libya?

 

The Russian Foreign Minister, according to an article published by RIA Novosti, says it is only supporting an "inclusive dialogue" in Libya that will lead to a "stable arrangement, designed to bring the country out of a prolonged political crisis." Russia recently hosted a delegation from the Government of National Accord (GNA), the UN recognized government of Libya that is stronger in the west of the country.

 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also met the Chairman of the Presidential Council of the GNA Fayez al-Sarraj in September of last year. At the time, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs underscored "its commitment to Libya's independence, unity and territorial integrity, as well as the need to involve representatives of the major political groups, tribes and country's regions in the formation of the national unity government." Translation: Include General Haftar and his supporters in Benghazi and Tobruk.

 

In February the Guardian reported that "European diplomats fear that [Haftar] could join what has been described as Vladimir Putin's axis of secular authoritarians in the Middle East alongside Syrian president Bashar Assad and Egyptian president Abdel Fatah al-Sisi." 

 

The EU diplomats supposedly worried that Haftar, with Russian backing, could take over much of Libya. A map of Libya's various armed groups shows why that's not realistic. Like Syria, the country has been driven by six years of conflict that has devolved into regional power-centers. In December Libyan GNA re-took Sirte from Islamic State after the extremists held it for a year and a half. Similarly Haftar is bogged down in a battle with Islamist Benghazi Defense Brigades (BDB).

 

Alex Grinberg, a Research Associate at the Rubin Center for Research in International Affairs at IDC Herzliya, says Russia's recent moves are a "preventive measure to help out Haftar and also prop-up Sisi."  Grinberg argues it is wrong to see Haftar as a "real ally" like Assad has been to the Kremlin. The reason Haftar has appeal is because of his relations with Egypt's Sisi and his hostility toward Islamists, a loathing Russia shares.

 

"Do the Russians support Haftar because they want him to be the strongman and power broker, or he is the strongman and powerbroker and that's why they support him," asks Grinberg. Since Russia's declared goal is stability, Grinberg says the real calculus may be ensuring Haftar moral support. "They can help here and there, but to remove the BDB from the oil crescent [oil ports along the coast] would require serious massing of forces."

 

On March 3 the BDB rolled into oil ports Ras Lanuf and Es Sidr on the coast, undermining Haftar. In Haftar's favor is the fact that he is a trained military officer and that although the GNA is internationally recognized, "it is completely impotent and incapable of reining in the anarchy of militias in Tripoli," says Grinberg. But he cautions that we should not see the conflict as solely between secular generals and Islamists, but rather as a series of tribal feuds and "horrendous crime rates" making Libya unstable.

 

There is no simple story in Libya. Some see oil as being a principle driver of relations and conflict. Others point out that EU hands in Libya are trying to forestall a migration wave of African migrants, who have attempted to take advantage of the chaos there as a jumping-off point for a sea voyage that has killed thousands in past years.

 

If the Russians had wanted to intervene more, they could have done so in January when their aircraft carrier the Admiral Kuznetsov was off the Libyan coast and Haftar paid a visit, speaking via phone with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

 

Russia is officially devoted to international law, and through that lens it will not intervene except with a veneer of legality. Putin condemned the US-led intervention in 2011 as a "crusade." In Syria, Russia was invited by Assad to assist in the war. In Libya, the UN stands by the GNA and Haftar is seen as a renegade. Thus arms cannot flow and neither can warplanes support him.

 

The US is paying close attention. Africa Command Marine General Thomas Waldhauser told Senators on March 10 that the situation was concerning. "Russia is trying to exert influence on the ultimate decision of who becomes and what entity becomes, in charge of the government inside Libya." It was comparable to Syria.

 

Support for Haftar dovetails with Russia's cultivating closer ties in Cairo. Sisi has expressed concern over the 1,000 km. Libyan border with Egypt since he became head of the armed forces in 2012. In the long-term Haftar, who is 73 years old, is not a solution to Libya and Russian interests there may only serve to prod the EU and US to take a new interest in Libya's problems.