MIDEAST UPDATE: 6.17.17 - Military crisis in Qatar may spark Gaza outbreak

Military crisis in Qatar may spark Gaza outbreak -

http://www.debka.com/article/26094/Military-crisis-in-Qatar-may-spark-Gaza-outbreak

 

The electricity cutback in the Gaza Strip, engineered by Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas to flex muscle against Hamas
rule, was just one piece on the checkerboard created by the crackdown Egypt, Saudi Arabia Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates have imposed on Qatar for supporting terrorist groups like the Palestinian extremist Hamas. Therefore, Hamas leader Yahya Sanwar
had little to expect from his mission to Cairo last weekend to persuade the El-Sisi government to ease its restrictions on the Gaza Strip.

He arrived at the head of a large mission, in which the group's military arm, Ezz e-Din El-Qassam was heavily represented. Their appeals to Maj.-Gen Khaled
Fawzy, director of Egyptian General Intelligence, met with a list of tough conditions. When the Palestinian delegation balked, Cairo acted to tighten its blockade on the Palestinian enclave.

The Hamas rulers of the Gaza Strip found themselves in the same boat as their old friend, Qatar, in the week that their internal rival, Mahmoud Abba,
docked payment for the electricity Israeli supplies the Gaza Strip. The power supply was cut by 40 percent.

From 2015, the emir of Qatar remained the only Arab ruler backing the Palestinian extremist Hamas with occasional cash donations to Gaza City and permission
for its top officials to set up shop in Doha.

This flow of aid was abruptly cut off by the land, sea and air blockade Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt clamped down on Qatar last week over
its support for terrorist groups and ties with Tehran. Sheikh Tamim bin-Hamad Al-Khalifa defied the ultimatum they presented him, and so Qatar's banks and international assets have been losing dollars, its currency has plummeted and there is no money to spare
for the Gaza Strip.

Qatar and Hamas are being pushed into the same corner.

The small Gulf island, which is the world's largest supplier of natural gas, was been told by the four leading Arab governments to expel Muslim Brotherhood
and Hamas officials from its soil, after years of providing them with hospitality plus pensions generous enough for them to live a life of ease and plenty, while also running their terrorist networks across the region and beyond.

Qatar was also told to discontinue its propaganda campaigns against Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and shut down its main platform, the Al Jazeera TV
channel; and hundreds of Egyptian and Saudi dissidents granted political asylum deported forthwith.

With nowhere else to go, these dissidents could potentially head for sanctuary in the Gaza Strip, making it a "little Qatar," which is why Cairo further
tightened the Palestinian enclave's isolation by blocking all routes of access.

The Hamas delegation was likewise confronted in Cairo with tough demands by the Egyptian intelligence chief:

1. To turn in the Muslim Brotherhood fugitives they were sheltering in the Gaza Strip.

2.  Not just to sever cooperation between the Hamas military arm and the Islamic State networks in the Sinai Peninsula, but to surrender to Egypt all
the intelligence they possessed about the jihadists and their activities.

3.  To discontinue weapons smuggling operations through Sinai.

After balking at the Egyptian demands, Yahya Sanwar was forced to leave Cairo empty-handed with regard to eased restrictions and humanitarian aid - only
to find on his return home that the Egyptians had raised their biggest gun against the Gaza Strip: They had cut off power.

A humanitarian catastrophe now hangs over the two million inhabitants of the tiny Mediterranean enclave. Hospitals are cutting back operations, refrigerators
are switched off, clean water supplies are dwindling because desalination plants are without power, raw sewage is dumped into the sea and sanitary conditions deteriorating.

Cairo asked the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah and the Israeli government not to relent, but to keep the pressure on the Hamas regime high. Ramallah
must continue to hold back payment to cover Israel's electricity bills, which suits Mahmoud Abbas' campaign for bringing Hamas to heel.

But for Israel, there is a dilemma. Nonetheless, the Netanyahu government is extremely wary of breaking away from the anti-terror line taken by Arab governments,
because this could put paid to the delicate ties established with them - especially in the military domain - through long and laborious effort.

In Jerusalem, it is therefore ardently hoped that the Qatar crisis is quickly resolved and Hamas and Cairo can reach terms exponentially for easing the
humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip.

For the time being, there is no sign of this happening. On the contrary, there are indications of the crisis moving onto a military plane. Sources in
the Middle East are not ruling out possible military action by Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE against Qatar.

A military crisis centering on Qatar would be a catalyst for an outbreak of violence from the Gaza Strip. And indeed,
after the failed Sanwar mission to Cairo and the reduction of electric power to the Gaza Strip, Hamas spokesmen warned that an "explosion" was imminent.

 

 

 

Five Reasons Why Gaza's Electricity Crisis Could Spark A War

- Anna Ahronheim -

http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Four-reasons-why-Gazas-electricity-crisis-could-spark-a-war-496813

In the Middle East tinderbox, it doesn't take much for things to rapidly escalate.

 

Israel and Hamas - after fighting three bloody conflicts since Hamas seized control of the Gaza Strip in 2007 - both
say they are not looking for conflict. But the latest electricity crisis in Gaza has senior IDF officials worried that any miscalculation on either side could spark another armed confrontation.

The following are five factors are in play:

 

1. Qatar is in trouble
Hamas has long relied on the Gulf emirate for financial and political support and Qatar stepped in to provide financial aid during the last fuel crisis
which hit the Strip in January. Qatar has supported Hamas financially over the last decade and pledged some $1.5 billion since 2012 to build roads, houses, schools and clinics in Gaza. It has for a long time also hosted exiled leaders of the group, such as
Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal and Saleh al-Aruri, who is believed to be behind the kidnapping and murder of three Israeli teenagers that led to Operation Protective Edge in 2014. Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman said this week that Aruri has left Qatar for
Lebanon, while Mashaal remains in Doha. If Qatar continues to reduce its support for Hamas, the group may try to show its relevance by attacking Israel.

 

2. Hamas may want to divert attention away from internal problems
Hamas has provoked confrontation in the past with Israel to distract from internal issues. In addition to a lack of fuel to supply residents with electricity,
Gaza's water utility company has warned that when the power is off, it also lacks fuel and cannot run water and sanitation facilities. There is also a skyrocketing unemployment rate, especially among youth, creating an even more urgent humanitarian situation.
While nearly 80% of Gaza residents receive some form of aid, those who are lucky enough to find work receive salaries of just over $400 per month. One of Hamas' primary fears is that the people of Gaza will one day rise up and lead to its fall from power and
to the return of the Palestinian Authority to control of the Strip. If the electricity cuts remain in place and the people blame Hamas for its role, the organization may lash out against Israel to divert attention and criticism from the urgent humanitarian
issues it faces in its territory.

 

3. Predictions of possible renewal of peace talks between Israel and the PA
Both the Palestinian Authority and Hamas have traded blame for the fuel crisis. The PA claims that Hamas officials are not running the plant efficiently
and Hamas says it cannot afford to buy more fuel and operate the plant because of high taxes imposed by the PA. Hamas may want to renew rocket attacks to remind the world that they are still around and still a relevant player in the region. While there has
been sporadic rocket fire from smaller Salafi jihadist groups that are challenging Hamas's rule, the group itself has not fired a rocket from Gaza since the 2014 conflict with Israel. But Hamas has done so in the past when it felt backed into a corner. If
rocket attacks renew and Israel responds, we could find ourselves in an escalation.

 

4. New leader might want to prove his "street cred"
In February, Hamas elected Yayha Sinwar, a ruthless hard-liner from its armed wing as its leader in the Gaza Strip. His election showed that Hamas's military
wing, the Izzedine al-Qassam Brigade, now holds more sway than the political leadership. Regarded by Israeli security officials as one of the most uncompromising leaders of Hamas, Sinwar rejects any reconciliation with Israel. His ascendancy to power has escalated
fears that Israel and the group may be heading towards yet another deadly conflict.

 

5.  A miscalculation by either side
Statistics from the last decade indicate that a conflict between Israel and Hamas takes place roughly every three years, and seemingly during the summer
time. While such retrospective data are not predictive, when the temperature and tempers rise and both sides are primed for fighting, any development and any miscalculation can trigger war.

 

 

Hamas to Increase Deployment Along Egypt-Gaza Border - by Aaron Klein and Ali Waked -

http://www.breitbart.com/jerusalem/2017/06/14/exclusive-hamas-increase-deployment-along-egypt-gaza-border-source/

 

A delegation of Hamas leaders currently visiting Egypt reached a new understanding with Egyptian officials regarding
security arrangements along the border between Sinai and the Gaza Strip, a knowledgeable source within Hamas told Breitbart Jerusalem.

The delegation, led by Hamas Gaza political chief Yehya Senwar, has been in Egypt since last week.

According to the source, one of the main understandings reached is that Hamas' security forces will be deployed over the length of the Gaza side of the
Egypt border and not only at specific problem spots, as has been the case until now.

The renewed deployment is expected to take effect at the beginning of July, the source said. The source noted that the delegation, which is expected to
return to the Gaza Strip today or tomorrow, had a successful visit that did not deal solely with security arrangements.

Al Jazeera separately reported generally that the Hamas delegation agreed with Egypt to tighten security along the Egypt-Gaza border.

Another issue discussed in the meeting, according to the source speaking to Breitbart Jerusalem, was that of Gaza-based Islamic State and Hamas members
wanted by Egyptian authorities for their involvement in terrorist activities against the Egyptian army in the Sinai.

"The heads of the delegation told Egypt that investigations of involvement in terror are ongoing against certain individuals ... and regarding a number
of individuals, our brothers in the delegation said there was proof of their involvement in terrorist activities against the Egyptian army."

The source noted the leaders of Hamas said that in any case it would be difficult for them to extradite to Egypt those who don't hold Egyptian citizenship.

He added, "The Egyptians said they expect all (smuggling) traffic from the Strip to Egypt to cease completely and that Hamas must take all steps necessary
to prevent jihadists from leaving the Strip for Sinai and that they must arrest and extradite to Egypt all those from among the jihadists who try to do the opposite and make their way from Sinai to the Gaza Strip while fleeing from the Egyptian army."

The Egyptians, for their part, said they promised to consider opening the Rafah border crossing more frequently and for longer hours, the only way for
Gaza's residents to reach the outside world. However, the source said the Egyptians stressed that the easing of restrictions would depend on the security situation in Sinai.

The Egyptians also promised to mediate with the Israelis to prevent any possibility of escalation in the Strip, but demanded that Hamas prevent provocation against
Israel by Gazan organizations.

 

Will Trump make a peace breakthrough in 2018? -

http://www.debka.com/article/26101/Will-Trump-make-a-peace-breakthrough-in-2018-

US President Donald Trump's goal of generating a rapid improvement of Israel's ties with the Arab world, including the Palestinians in 2018, is not just
up to Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, but depends largely on how the Trump administration handles the continuing conflict between Qatar and its powerful Arab opponents, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Up until the end of this week, Trump had turned down the efforts of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Secretary of Defense James Mattis to resolve
the Gulf conflict by diplomacy. Instead of heeding them, the president took the advice of the Saudi defense minister, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubeir, who visited Washington this week. Tillerson and Mattis tried to arrange
a conference between Saudi Arabia and Qatar so as to gradually ease the tensions, but Trump torpedoed the initiative by adopting Riyadh's tough line.

A complex situation has arisen in the last few days regarding the US diplomacy for bringing Israel and the Palestinians aboard a peace process. The signs
of movement on this score fluctuate between crises and some progress:

1. The Gaza electricity row falls under the first heading. Some circles contend that the crisis is artificial, since the Palestinian enclave is receiving
as much power now as before. What is different is the new, intensified pressure by Egypt on the one hand and the Palestinian Authority on the other in the hope of toppling Hamas rule in the Gaza Strip or squeezing its leaders into toeing their lines. Neither
Egyptian President Abel Fatteh El-Sisi nor the Palestinian Authority chairman has made headway. Hamas stubbornly refuses Cairo's demand to sever ties with Qatar, while launching a counteroffensive to draw Israel into the dispute by making an empty threat of
an "explosion."

Israel responded with a counter-threat on Thursday, June 15: a proposal to transfer one hour's worth of power from West Bank Palestinian towns to boost
the supply to Gaza.

This maneuver kept the entire electricity issue in the court from it was tossed, Ramallah.

2. A shower of Israeli concessions is landing on the Palestinians judging by almost daily reports. Some are true and others false. But in sum, they are
designed to impress President Trump with the Netanyahu government's good will towards his peace initiative and readiness to take steps in its support. In fact, the prime minister is preparing the ground for the forthcoming arrival of Jason Greenblatt, Trump's
envoy on the Israel-Palestinian issue.

3. US Secretary of State Tillerson this week informed the Senate that the Palestinian Authority had agreed to  halt its payments to the families of Palestinian
terrorists who were killed while carrying out attacks against Israelis. Palestinian officials no doubt let this be understood to demonstrate their willingness to go along with Trump's peace initiative, without, however, have any real intention of following
through.

4. Media reports and the findings of Arab research institutes add up to the following predictions on the fate of the negotiations generated by the Trump
administration between Israel and the Arab world:

A. Some time during 2018, a showcase summit will be staged for Trump, Netanyahu and leading Arab rulers like Saudi King Salman, Egyptian President El-Sisi
and the UAE's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan.

They will publish a joint declaration signaling the phased normalization of relations with Israel by such preliminary steps as the exchange of economic
and business delegations, the opening of trade offices and of Arab skies to Israeli commercial flights. None of these researchers is clear about the Palestinian role in this event.

B. Meanwhile, Israel will make concessions towards improving the lives of ordinary Palestinians, such as removing checkpoints, issuing building permits
for Palestinian towns and more jobs in Israel.

C. Israel and the Palestinian Authority will expand their security cooperation. The Palestinians will be persuaded
to cease their incitement against the Jewish State and stop payouts to the families of convicted Palestinian terrorists and other security offenders.

D. Direct Israeli-Palestinian negotiations will ensue, without preconditions on either side, and expand. with Arab governments sitting in.

E. At the end of a period of some years, this process will mature into a discussion of the core issues of the dispute, Palestinian statehood, future borders,
settlements, Jerusalem and refugees.

In other words, the year 2018 will see the building of normal relations between Israel and Arab countries to be followed at a later date by the Israeli-Palestinian
peace process. President Trump has clearly seized on relations with Riyadh, Cairo and Abu Dhabi as a lever for pushing Israel and the Palestinians into peace talks.

The idea is simple. Israel's improved ties with the Arab world will resonate positively on Israeli-Palestinian relations. That appears to be Trump's formula
for peace. But there is a catch. It depends heavily on the US President maintaining good relations with the Arab world in the long term.

 

 

 

 

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