SYRIAN UPDATE: 7.1.17 - US may preempt an Assad chemical strike in Syria

US may preempt an Assad chemical strike in Syria -

http://www.debka.com/article/26116/US-may-preempt-an-Assad-chemical-strike-in-Syria

Signs were gathering in Washington and the Middle East Tuesday, June 26 that the Trump administration was preparing
a substantial military operation against the Syrian army and Bashar Assad's allies, such as the foreign pro-Iranian Shiite militias and Hezbollah. Some US military sources suggested that an American preemptive strike was in store in the coming hours to prevent
Assad's army from again resorting to chemical warfare against his people.

White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer said Monday night that the US "has identified potential preparations for another chemical weapons attack by the
Assad regime that would likely result in the mass murder of civilians, including innocent children." He said the activities were similar to preparations taken before an April 2017 attack that killed dozens of men, women and children, and warned that if "Mr.
Assad conducts another mass murder attack using chemical weapons, he and his military will pay a heavy price."

On April 4, the Syrians launched a chemical weapons attack, which killed 87 people, including 30 children, following which the Trump administration fired
scores of Tomahawk missiles against a Syrian air base.

The US ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley then further stoked the tensions by declaring on Twitter that any chemical weapons attack by Bashar-Assad's
Syrian government "will be blamed on Assad but also on Russia and Iran who support him killing his own people."

Haley's tweet ended with the cliffhanger: "Stay tuned for more tomorrow."

debkafile's military sources add: An American attack on Syria, whether preemptive or punitive, may be launched from the aircraft carrier USS George H.W.
Bush in the eastern Mediterranean.

It was from the decks of this vessel that US Navy fighter jets took off on June 18 to down a Syrian SU-22 fighter bomber over eastern Syrian. A repetition
of a US carrier-based attack on Syria would challenge the warning Moscow issued to Washington on June 24 after the Syrian warplane was shot down:

"From now on, in areas where Russian aviation performs combat missions in the skies of Syria, any airborne objects found west of the Euphrates River,
including aircraft and unmanned vehicles belonging to the international coalition, tracked by means of Russian land and air anti-aircraft defense, will be considered air targets."

That warning was intended to mark a red line against US flights crossing through central and western Syria. Posted at Latakia, on Syrian's Mediterranean coast
in the west are advanced Russian anti-air S-400 and S-300 missiles.

 

Syria warns Israel: Further attacks will have serious repercussions -

http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Syria-warns-Israel-Further-attacks-will-have-serious-repercussions-497912

 

The Syrian military threatened Israel on Sunday evening that should it launch any further attacks on Syrian army targets,
Israel will have to take the responsibility for repercussions that can ensue, according to The Jerusalem Post's sister publication Maariv, citing Lebanese television news outlet Al Mayadeen.

This threat comes after  the IDF struck targets belonging to forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime in response to the errant fire that
hit northern Israel earlier in the day.

 

Several projectiles fired from Syria landed in open territory in Israel's Golan Heights on Sunday afternoon, the IDF
confirmed. No injuries were reported in the incident.

 

The military stated that the errant projectiles were the result of internal fighting in Syria.

 

Sunday was the second day in a row that the Israeli-Syrian border has been effected by a spillover from the ongoing
conflict in Syria.

 

US Strategy and Israel's Stake in Eastern Syria

- By Jonathan Spyer -

https://jonathanspyer.com/2017/06/24/us-strategy-and-israels-stake-in-eastern-syria/#psM2FOZRwYmxAgUC.99

The downing on June 18th  of a Syrian Air Force SU-22 by a UA Navy F-18 Super Hornet over the skies of northern Syria
sharply raises the stakes in the emergent stand-off in the country.  This stand-off is no longer between local militias, nor between regional powers.  Rather, through interlocking lines of support, it places the United States in direct opposition to Russia.

The last move has almost certainly not yet been made.   And while events in northeast Syria may seem a distance away, there is a direct Israeli interest
in the outcome of the current contest.

This latest move was a probably inevitable outcome of two sharply opposing outlooks currently in play in Syria.  The US seeks to maintain a divide between
the war against Islamic State in the east of the country and the civil war between Assad and the rebellion against him in the west of it.  Washington sees itself as involved in the first conflict system,  while remaining outside the second. Thus, US-supported
Kurdish and Sunni Arab rebel forces are forbidden from attacking Assad's forces.

The US statement following the downing of the SU-22 reflected this position.  Pentagon Spokesman Cpt. Jeff Davis noted that the US does 'not seek conflict
with any party in Syria other than ISIS, but we will not hesitate to defend ourselves or our partners if threatened.'

From the point of view of the regime and its Russia and Iranian allies, by contrast, no such division exists.  For them, the Syrian war is a single system,
in which the 'legitimate government' (ie the Assad regime) is engaged in a fight against various illegitimate entities.  The latter group includes ISIS, but also the Sunni Arab rebels and the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces, with whom the US is
aligned.

The recent Astana agreement for the creation of four 'de-escalation' areas has freed up the regime and allied forces to take a more active role in the
war against ISIS further east.  Regime forces are advancing along two axes -  from Palmyra in the south,  and from Aleppo province further north.  The second axis is bringing the regime and its allies into direct and close proximity with the US-supported SDF.
 The incident this week took place, according to the US version, after regime forces attacked the SDF in the town of Jadin south of Tabqa.  Further tactical clashes are probably inevitable as each side seeks to take control of areas abandoned by ISIS as it
retreats.

But these tactical matters are part of an emergent strategic reality.  The defeat of the Islamic State as an entity controlling territory is clearly only
a matter of time.  The actions of the Assad regime (or more accurately the Iranian and Russian interests that dominate it)  equally clearly reflect their determination to confront and defeat all other armed elements within Syria.  The United States is currently
backing certain non-governmental armed elements in Syria, for the stated purpose of defeating Islamic State.

So the situation is leading the US inexorably toward a choice.  At a certain point, perhaps after the final eclipse of IS, but also perhaps before it,
 Washington will need to decide if it wishes to abandon its allies to destruction at the hands of the regime, Iran, and Russia, or whether it wishes to help to defend the forces it has armed and trained.

At this point, the US will need to decide its end objective in Syria.  Is it a federalized, decentralized Syria, with the regime dominant in the west
and US allies in the east? Is it the destruction of the Assad regime? The construction of safe zones and ongoing negotiation?  Which is it to be?

None of this is easy and all choices have a price.  Failure to decide, and a tactical, localized response to immediate threats is also a kind of choice,
of course. So far, this type of response has resulted in the pro-Iranian forces reaching the Iraqi border, north of al-Tanf, and cutting off the US-backed rebels in the area from the possibility of further progress northwards.

As of now, on four occasions, US forces have responded to the regime coming too close.  But this has the appearance of a piecemeal response.  All sides
await the discovery or emergence of US strategy in Syria.

Why does all this matter for Israel? For the following reason: if the US and its allies are eclipsed in eastern Syria, the result will be the establishment
of a contiguous land link from Iran, across Iraq and Syria and to Lebanon and the Israeli border.  This in turn will transform the threat picture facing Israel in the event of a renewed war with Hezbollah. This is not only or mainly to do with the transfer
of weapons systems to the Lebanese Shia jihadis.

One must observe and study the style of war that Iran has conducted in Syria and Iraq over the last half decade to grasp this essential point.   In both
contexts, with no official Iranian declaration of war, a coalition of Teheran-aligned militias have acted in a coordinated fashion on behalf of Iranian allies and interests.  This coalition of forces has played a crucial role in the survival of the Assad regime.
 In Iraq, a similar coalition of Iran-aligned forces played a crucial role in the fight against IS, and now constitutes the key instrument of power in that country.

At no time have the pro-Iranian forces been constricted by nominal state borders or 'national' divisions.  Lebanese Hezbollah personnel have played a
vital role in Syria and have been present also in Iraq.  Iraqi militiamen have been active in Syria. Afghan fighters were among the first to reach the Syria-Iraq border on June 9th.

There is no reason for Israeli planners to assume that a future war with Hizballah would be immune from this pattern. To reiterate, it does not require
a formal declaration of war from Iran.  Proxies are mobilized and deployed under the stewardship of the IRGC, but with no direct or acknowledged involvement given or demanded from Iran at any stage.
The loosely and ambiguously governed nature of these territories would serve as an advantage for the Iranian forces,  perhaps providing the kind of diplomatic
cover for them that the presence of the toothless Siniora government in Beirut did in 2006.  Thus the tried and tested Iranian model of revolutionary warfare.

The creation of a contiguous corridor all the way from Iran to Lebanon would make possible the prosecution of such a war at an appropriate time and opportunity
for Tehran, against Israel.

For this reason, the prevention of the emergence of this direct land route through eastern Syria is a direct Israeli national interest.  Unfortunately, the tactical
and piecemeal nature of the US response, and the apparent absence of a clearly formulated strategy to face the Iranian, Russian-supported advance may yet facilitate its creation.   Perhaps a clear strategy will yet emerge. It is Trump's move.

 

 

PLEASE VISIT MY WIFES WEBSITE. SHE RUNS "YOUNG LIVING" WHICH PROVIDES ALL NATURAL OILS THAT CAN BE USED INTERNALLY AND EXTERNALLY INCLUDING A DEFUSER WHICH PUTS AN AMAZING ODOR IN THE AIR. THIS PRODUCT IS SO AMAZING AND KNOW THAT YOU WILL GET YEARS OF ENJOYMENT FROM IT. GOTO HTTP://WWW.YOUNGLIVING.ORG/CDROSES