WORLD AT WAR: 6.3.17 - A showdown could be looming between the US, Iran, and the Assad regime at the Syria-Iraq border

A showdown could be looming between the US, Iran, and the Assad regime at the Syria-Iraq border

- Christopher Woody -

http://www.businessinsider.com/a-us-iran-showdown-looms-a-desert-outpost-on-the-syria-iraq-border-2017-5

 

In April, Syrian rebel fighters and their US special-forces trainers repulsed an ISIS attack in an hours-long battle
marked by suicide bombers and coalition airstrikes.

The battle took place at al Tanf near the Syria-Iraq border, and the camp there is still used by US and UK personnel to train Western-backed fighters.

But with ISIS' territorial presence in Syria continuing to erode, al Tanf and the area around it - near the intersection of the Syrian, Iraqi, and Jordanian
borders - looks to be the site of a potential clash between the US-led coalition, its local partners, and the Assad regime and its partners, backed by Iran.

With US-backed forces gearing up to liberate ISIS' self-proclaimed capital in Raqqa and ISIS losing ground elsewhere in the Syria, combatants in the country
are reportedly trying to position themselves to assume control of territory vacated by terrorist group.

Recent events in Syria indicate that the Assad "regime and its allies [are] racing to establish an east-west 'Shiite axis' from Iran to Lebanon and the
United States [is] seemingly looking to cement a north-south 'Sunni axis' from the Gulf states and Jordan to Turkey," Fabrice Balanche, a French expert on Syria and a visiting fellow at The Washington institute for Near East Policy, wrote recently.

"What's left of Islamic State territory is the key part of Iran's plan to connect Iran to Lebanon," Firas Abi-Ali, senior Middle East analyst at IHS Country
Risk in London, told Bloomberg.

 

Though the battle for Raqqa in northeast Syria, and the balance of power it will create, is far from settled, control
there looks set to devolve to Kurdish forces - who are allied with the US and have said they're willing to negotiate with Assad, and by extension Iran, for autonomy.

That could make it more possible for the al Tanf area in southeastern Syria to become a flashpoint in the geopolitical struggle between Iran and its partners,
largely Shiite but also including Russia, and the US and its partners in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Arab states, largely Sunni.

According to Balanche, from al Tanf in southern Syria to Sinjar in Iraq - where Iraqi Shiite paramilitaries recently recaptured ISIS-held territory -
"the area is now being contested by various belligerents on behalf of their regional sponsors."

Clashes between the US-led coalition and Syrian forces have already occurred in southeast Syria.

 

On May 18, coalition airstrikes hit pro-regime forces "that were advancing well inside an established de-confliction
zone" northeast of al Tanf, US Central Command said in a release.

"This action was taken after apparent Russian attempts to dissuade Syrian pro-regime movement south towards At Tanf were unsuccessful," the release said.
The strike was a limited engagement and not part of a new strategy, US Defense Department spokesman Eric Pahon told Bloomberg.

Intelligence sources have told Reuters that the coalition's presence near al Tanf is meant to keep Iranian-backed forces from securing an overland route
between Syria and Iraq.

More recently, Western-backed Syrian rebels said Russian jets had bombed them to stop their push to capture a checkpoint on the Damascus-Baghdad highway
near the Syrian borders with Iraq and Jordan.

While the Syrian regime and its associates may not have the capabilities to take on US forces and partners at al Tanf, their goal may be to surround the
position and render it useless, Balanche told Military Times.

Washington's long-term strategy for the region, and how it would deal with a potential conflict between its partners and Iranian-backed forces, remains
unclear.

 

While US officials have said the US focus continues to be on defeating ISIS, airstrikes on Syrian forces launched earlier
this year President Donald Trump were a more direct challenge to Assad than that taken by Obama.

Trump's recent exhortations to Gulf Arab states to "stand united" against Iran, as well as his past bellicosity toward Tehran, suggest that his administration
could pursue a more aggressive Middle East policy going forward.

However, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, possibly emboldened by Trump's rhetoric, have released public broadsides against Gulf Cooperation
Council partner Qatar, opening a rift that could shake up the anti-Iran front the GCC has thus far presented.

"The GCC could harm it own interests in this fight and is at risk of becoming more vulnerable to Iranian encroachment," a Western diplomat based in Doha
told Reuters.

Turmoil in the Gulf notwithstanding, US willingness or ability to check Iranian regional ambitions is far from certain.

"There's not much the US can do about Iran in Syria," Cliff Kupchan, chairman of New York-based risk-consultant Eurasia Group, told Bloomberg. "Iran is closer,
and cares more."

Iran Accelerating Efforts To Capture Iraqi-Syrian Border From IS, Says Arab Intel Source

- Aaron Klein - http://www.breitbart.com/jerusalem/2017/06/01/exclusive-iran-accelerating-efforts-capture-iraqi-syrian-border-says-arab-intel-source/ 

The Syrian army is accelerating its efforts to regain control of the border area between Syria and Iraq with the help of Iranian forces and elite Hezbollah units, an Arab intelligence source has told Breitbart Jerusalem.




The source said that even as the international coalition expects to liberate Raqqa with the help of Kurdish forces, the Syrian army and Iranian and Hezbollah fighters are taking action to liberate the area from IS control. According to the source, "Iran's main
fear is that the international coalition's capture of Raqqa led by the U.S. will disrupt Iran's strategic plans to complete the connection between Tehran, Baghdad and Damascus, which would secure the flow of arms from Iran to Syria and from there to Hezbollah
in Lebanon."



Over the past few weeks, according to the source, the Iranians, disregarding agreements with Russia, are stepping up their efforts on the Iraqi side of the border, using Shi'ite militas to lead the offensive against IS in Mosul and the border region with Syria.



"The Iranians want to make sure that their followers are directly involved in carrying out the plan," the source said. "As far as the Iranians are concerned, this plan is an entire outlook on the war in Syria and even the reason for the outbreak of the war
- that is, the attempt of Iran's enemies in the Arab world and internationally, the Iranians believe, to detach Syria from the Iranian axis politically by severing the territorial contiguity between Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon in order to harm Iranian interests
by harming Iran's allies."



The source noted that two offensives are taking place in the region at the same time: "A campaign initiated by the international coalition led by the U.S. and supported by Kurdish forces in the field, and a campaign led by the Iranians to take control of the
border area and ensure territorial contiguity."



According to the source, "The Russians' position isn't clear. On the one hand, they aren't supporting the move, but on the other hand they aren't doing anything to prevent it, even if it may lead to clashes between the international coalition led by the U.S.
and the Iranian-Syrian forces and Hezbollah."



In Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Syria and Afghanistan, said the source, the recruitment of volunteers and fighters for the battle to liberate Raqqa and the border area has accelerated.



Hundreds of fighters are arriving almost every day to military camps, especially in Iraq and also in Syria, in order to take part in this military offensive. American-Iranian proxy violence in this area is not another imaginary scenario because we're witnessing
that the Americans are accelerating the arming of Kurdish forces so that they will be the first to capture Raqqa and the border area with coalition air cover. In all issues concerning the Iranians, the key is in the hand of the Russians, but also the coalition
air force has in its hand the option of stopping the advancing Iranian-Syrian forces.



But at the moment, despite the commitment to stop an Iranian takeover, it's not clear if this commitment will translate into a war of American/Western forces against Iranian forces. What can be said: At the level of coordination between coalition members, there
is a clear intention to repel Iran and its efforts.

 

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