Iran, North Korea, and the U.S. - by Tom Quiggin -
For those wishing to understand the emerging role of the United States in the Middle East, especially regarding the ever-expanding role of Iran, watch North Korea. The long-term effects of U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive posture toward the Hermit Kingdom are not yet clear, but change has occurred. For the first time in 68 years, a leader of North Korea, Kim Jong-un, walked across the border to South Korea. In a region of the world where maintaining face is paramount, this was possibly seen as a sign of submission.
Insights on how President Trump will deal with Iran and its nuclear weapons program can be gained from examining how he dealt with North Korea. North Korea and Iran have exchanged technology programs and have actively sought to assist each other in weapons programs.
President Trump, throughout his administration, has been focused on North Korea and has expended considerable financial and political capital on the issue. This effort is aimed at three North Korean programs that create regional and global instability: nuclear weapons, an electromagnetic pulse weapons capability and the missile programs that make delivery of these weapons possible. A host of other international actors would also undoubtedly love to see these programs dismantled.
At the same time, an expansionist Iran continues further to destabilize the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, Morocco and Israel, to name just a few countries, are facing Iran and its proxy states, such as Qatar, and could understandably nervous about becoming the next Yemen. Iran's programs threaten them, as well as Iran's own exasperated citizens.
Iran's expansionist mode was propelled even further by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a personal agreement that former President Barack Obama made with Iran, but never signed by the regime.
In short, the deal gave Iran a huge amount of cash and lifted of some sanctions in exchange for Iran agreeing to roll back parts of its nuclear program. The deal appears to favor Iran with no discernable change in outlook on their weapons and missile programs, and legitimates its nuclear breakout capability in just a few years.
Now what?
North Korea
It is possible that President Trump might accomplish what other American Presidents have not: that North Korea may be willing to denuclearize verifiably - give up all its missiles and chemical weapons -- in exchange for having the country brought into the 21st Century.
That a possible "complete denuclearization" of the entire Korean Peninsula may occur is a shift unthinkable only a year ago. North Korean President Kim Jong-un has stated that he will blow up the nuclear site tunnels in his country before the next round of negotiations. Whether this grand gesture is driven by a fundamental desire for progress, or whether the nuclear test site has lost its value due to an internal physical collapse of the site, is not clear. Either way, it is a step ahead.
Why would North Korea's President take the unprecedented step of stepping across the North/South border? One reason, ignored in much of the discussion, is that where previous talks with North Korea over the last several decades worked on carrot and stick negotiations, this time President Kim Jong-un may have been persuaded to the table by a fear for his political future.
Although much discussion exists about President Trump being unpopular and out of control, a careful reading may suggest otherwise. From an intelligence and military analysis point of view:
- North Korean President Kim Jong-un leads a brutal dictatorship and maintains himself in power through cronyism, pure violence and fear - possibly even more so than his father or grandfather. While this kind of leadership gives him power, it also makes him fragile. Lacking much in the way of a popular power base, he can be, as all dictators are, fearful of overthrow by those closest to him, particularly if his ability diminishes to keep his supporters in the style to which he has accustomed them.
- The second factor is that President Trump has made a series of highly unusual moves, many of which have not been examined or appreciated in what appears a hyper-partisan mainstream press.
The mainstream media has reported much about the deployment of American aircraft carriers in the region and well as B1-B , B2 and B52 bombers -- part of the coverage about traditional ground and air military exercises.
In March of 2017, however, the South Korean press reported that the SEAL TEAM 6 was in South Korea. These reports suggested joint military drills, simulating the kidnapping, or a decapitation strike, aimed at North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. SEAL TEAM 6, incidentally, is the same group that killed Osama Bin Laden, hiding in Pakistan. Such announcements are rare; one wonders who were the real intended recipients of the message.
In April of 2017, the submarine USS Michigan docked in South Korea and the port visit made public. The true import of this event was missed by many. In plain language, the USS Michigan is a huge submarine powered by a nuclear reactor with a massive weapons capability. In its early form as a ballistic nuclear missile carrying submarine, it could, quite literally, destroy continents with its 24 Trident missiles, each with between 8 and 12 warheads. The USS Michigan has now been converted to a guided-missile carrying submarine, which can carry 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles with a variety of warheads. The USS Michigan also has two silos that can deploy mini-submarines, each of which can deliver a complete SEAL Team and an extensive array of equipment.
The submarine service is highly secretive. The security surrounding nuclear-powered and nuclear- weapons-capable submarines is understandably exorbitant. The security around the deployment of special forces on these submarines is even greater. Yet, in October 2107, the USS Michigan again made a port call that was made public. The message to North Korea and to President Kim Jong-un was: We are here. In your back yard. You could be escorted from power, as was Haiti's former "president for life," Jean-Claude "Baby Doc" Duvalier.
Concessions of the Past
North Korea, under its two previous presidents, may have grown used to extracting concessions from the rest of the world - acts sometimes referred to as extortion or blackmail. By simply yelling and making threats, North Korean leaders were able to get money, influence, and exceptional treatment (read: countries looking the other way) for its nuclear program. When President Kim Jong-un tried this same approach on the United States last year with a series of demands and missile launches, concessions were not offered. When the North Korean president threatened the U.S. and others by saying his nuclear weapons program was complete and his launch button within reach, President Trump responded: I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!
What has this to do with Iran?
When you look at human rights issues, Iran, a theocratic dictatorship, is listed as one of the worst countries to live in. Women have been crushed into submission, and gays face persecution by the state,. In addition, Iran's own citizens are subjected to sham trials, tortured and killed.
Iran is listed in the U.S. as among the world's leading state supporters of terrorism and has been a key figure in supporting President Bashar Assad of Syria, who has been bombing his own people with chemical weapons.
At the same time, its oil-based economy is suffering and the population is increasingly outraged as seen in a recent series of demonstrations.
As with North Korea, the senior leadership is kept in power through fear and terror.
The Supreme Guide of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, also known as "The Jurist," is kept in power by the Council of Guardians. The muscle is provided by Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). Subordinate to the IRGC, at least nominally, is the Qods Force, a sort of overseas special forces unit. The Qods Force has been listed as a terrorist entity by Canada, and the USA. Egypt included the Qods Force on a list of nominations for terrorist entities operating in Syria. The al Qods force is also believed to have operated in the Middle East, Sudan, South Asia and Western Europe.
The IRGC, which has grown powerful and wealthy, controls a large segment of Iran's economy. To what degree they are independent of the political leadership is not clearly understood -- especially if the economy should suffer an unfortunate downturn.
Although lifting sanctions on Iran has benefitted the country, the IRGC has apparently been a major beneficiary: much of the new money has been diverted into upgrading the IRGC's military capabilities . It remains unclear what, if any, benefits have accrued to the general population of Iran since the 2015 signing of the nuclear deal. The population has apparently not outwardly felt any tangible benefits despite higher levels of oil exports and economic growth.
North Korea and Iran
There are not many unstable states that can currently threaten global stability and, in particular, American interests. Among those that can are North Korea, Iran and Pakistan. Russia, a relatively stable major nuclear power, falls into a category of its own.
The Trump Doctrine, if it can be called that, for dealing with emerging nuclear power states, is itself emerging. Financial pressure will be applied through sanctions. Military force will be threatened, and the survival of the regime will be called into question. In Iran, the real power figures are the Ayatollah Khamenei, President Rouhani and the two men who run the IRGC: Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari and the commander of the Quds Force, Major General Qasem Soleimani. With the Iran Deal on the rocks, these are the figures who are most likely to feel their lives disrupted.
Based on this precedent, it is not surprising to see press articles already suggesting that General Soleimani has been "green lighted" for assassination.
What can one asses from all of this? Either you work with President Trump or you might be personally inconvenienced, so to speak.
The second message is to the Ayatollah Khamenei of Iran. If Iran continues its present path of expansionism, the results might not be agreeable. Cooperate, and things could improve.
Many observers, critical of President Trump and his approach, claim Trump and his administration lack consistency and do not have a clear message. Seen differently, unpredictability can be of use.
For whatever reason, President Trump is one of those people who seems to enjoy operating in a state of unpredictability, or is willing to create some to exploit the uncertainty associated with it. He is a builder and a real estate developer, which means he wants to see results in real time as well has envisioning a long-term outlook.
What can one conclude from all of this? First, North Korea is a warm up. The main target is Iran.
Second, combined with, cyber power, financial sanctions, a new style of diplomacy, traditional forms of warfare -- "the continuation of policy by other means," as to Carl von Clausewitz pointed out -- is emerging. The leaders of fragile dictatorial states with limited popular support may be facing a multi-front series of attacks, kinetic and cyber, as well as assurances of bewilderment if they continue to threaten global order. They should not be sleeping well at night.
Turkey: A Caliphate In The Making? - By Zvi Mazel - http://www.prophecynewswatch.com/
The new crisis with Israel initiated by Recep Tayyip Erdogan following President Trump's recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and the Gaza so called March of Return demonstrations, taken together with his decision to advance the presidential election, should be regarded as an integral part of his bid for regional hegemony.
Under his leadership, Turkey has become a major player in the Middle East. In order to further his vision, he is active virtually everywhere. This is a major departure from the policy of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the father of modern Turkey, who not only abolished the caliphate and separated religion from the state, but also turned his back on the Arab world, which he saw as a burden hampering his country's progress toward parity with the developed West.
Erdogan's new course is fraught with danger. Granted, it has given Turkey a welcome prominence on the world stage. But it has also embroiled the country in conflicts with many of its neighbors (Egypt, Iraq, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Syria), worsened already poor relations with Cyprus and triggered a confrontation with Russia. At one point, Ankara's only friend in the region was Qatar - another strong supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Turkey's aggressive foreign policy was matched by boldness on the home front. The Justice and Development Party (AKP), an Islamic political group Erdogan founded with Abdullah Gul, has won the most votes in every national election since 2002, establishing a dominant position that allowed him to establish a presidential regime. The political opposition was neutralized after the failed military coup of 2016, which Erdogan used skillfully to consolidate his rule.
Yet this polarizing figure is also the same man who once pledged to pursue a "zero-problems" policy with Turkey's neighbors, in accordance with the neo-Ottoman vision propagated by Ahmet Davutoglu, for many years Erdogan's closest advisor before succeeding him as prime minister in 2014-2016. Turkey could assume a greater role in the world, Davutoglu believed, by using Muslim solidarity to regain its preeminent position in the former Ottoman lands of the Middle East. Islam would be the glue binding them together.
This program appealed to Erdogan, a devout Muslim. In 2004, he proclaimed his support for Hamas and, following its electoral success two years later, lavishly hosted Hamas leaders in Ankara, demonstrating for all to see a sympathy for the Muslim Brotherhood that would grow to the point that Turkey is considered today that organization's strongest base.
Perhaps to garner prestige in the Arab world and support for his endeavors in the region, then Prime Minister Erdogan worsened his country's traditionally good relations with Israel. In 2009, following Israel's "Cast Lead" operation in Gaza, he insulted Israeli President Shimon Peres at the World Economic Forum in Davos, calling him a murderer and walking out of the meeting. In 2010, he initiated or facilitated the Mavi Marmara flotilla to embarrass Israel and, following that incident, downgraded diplomatic relations. Previously excellent military contacts between the two countries came to an end, as did intelligence cooperation.
At the same time, Erdogan implemented a plan to neutralize the army and the courts, formerly the bulwarks of Turkish secularism. In this he had the misguided support of the European Union, which felt that the special powers granted to the army were detrimental to democracy and human rights, and thus constituted a major obstacle to the country's joining the EU. All army officers - including the chief of staff - who had regular contact with Israel were arrested and accused of plotting against the president.
In the early stages of the Syrian civil war, the Turkish authorities supported President Bashar al-Assad, but changed their view and called for his immediate ouster when they grasped that the stream of refugees endangered Turkey itself. Likewise, Erdogan's government did not immediately oppose Daesh, also known as Islamic State (ISIS), letting young Muslims transit through Turkey to join the terrorist organization and turning a blind eye to oil smuggling from Daesh-controlled territory.
Taking advantage of the chaos created by Daesh in Iraq, Turkey sent troops to the north of that country and set up a military base near Mosul. Because Erdogan then believed that good relations with the Iraqi Kurds would prevent them from siding with the Kurdish opposition in Turkey, part of their mission was to train both Kurdish peshmerga and Turkmen fighters. Ankara justified its incursion by the wish to protect the local population and the Turkish border. Strong protests by the Iraqi prime minister were to no avail.
When the government in Baghdad opened the battle to retake Mosul, Erdogan wanted Turkish forces to take part in the fighting. He pointed to Turkey's historical responsibility for the region - hinting that his country, as the heir of the Ottoman empire, held special rights. The United States joined Iraq in opposing the move, and this time he had to back down.
The situation in Egypt set off another crisis. Following the ouster of President Mohamed Morsi, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, the Turkish government announced that diplomatic relations would be frozen until Morsi was freed and restored to office.
Meanwhile, Ankara was foiling attempts at reconciliation with Cyprus after the 1974 Turkish occupation of the northern part of the island. He also blocked efforts by the internationally recognized Cypriot government to develop offshore deposits of natural gas.
The downing of a Russian Su-24M fighter bomber in November 2015 (after it strayed into Turkish airspace for a few seconds) put a temporary end to this aggressive policy. President Vladimir Putin reacted swiftly, halting Russian tourism to Turkey and boycotting Turkish agricultural imports. Then, in Moscow, he hosted the leader of the pro-Kurd Turkish People's Democracy Party.
President Erdogan understood he had gone too far and decided to change tack. He apologized and made his peace with Russia, and even agreed to renew diplomatic relations with Israel.
However, "peace" with Russia came at a price. Turkey aligned itself with Moscow's policy in Syria: supporting the Assad regime, letting Iran entrench itself in the country and joining the fight against Daesh. In return, Erdogan was invited to the Astana summit, where Iran and Russia drew up the map of a new Syria to emerge after the civil war.
Ankara sees the Syrian Kurds as a direct security threat. Specifically, Turkey has targeted the People's Protection Units (YPG), the Syrian Kurdish militia set up with assistance from the PKK - against which the Turkish army is waging a bloody counter insurgency.
Assuming he was now free to advance his own objectives, Mr. Erdogan sent troops into northern Syria to fight the Kurdish autonomy and drive it beyond the Euphrates River (Operation Euphrates Shield August 2016 - March 2017). A second operation, code named Olive Branch, against the Kurds began in January. Erdogan sent his army to occupy the Afrin enclave in North West of Syria which borders with Turkey but in the same time increased the tension with the US who has been cooperating with the Kurds.
Lastly Erdogan severed his covert ties with Daesh and brought Turkey into the international coalition against that organization. In retaliation, the organization launched terrorist attacks that had a devastating impact on Turkey's tourist industry.
In 2016, President Erdogan fired his faithful ally, Prime Minister Davutoglu, after he opposed constitutional amendments instituting a presidential regime and denounced corruption scandals that allegedly involved Erdogan and his son. The constitutional amendments, approved by a slim majority in the referendum carried out according to the constitution, will let the president fulfill his long-term ambition of becoming the absolute ruler of his country.
Those amendments will confer Erdogan extensive powers. He will be both President and Prime Minister and will appoint the judges of the supreme court and the prosecutor general. The changes were to take effect in November 2019 after the next presidential election but recently Erdogan decided to advance the election for June 24 after having secured of the support of National Movement party for his candidacy to the presidency.
Perhaps this is the prelude to establishing a new Islamic Caliphate and bringing an end to Ataturk's revolution.
In the aftermath of the July 2016 coup, Erdogan eliminated all possible threats to his rule. This crackdown focused on his rival Fethullah Gulen, an Islamic philosopher who had established a dense network of schools, institutions and proteges that exerted great influence on Turkey's government, legal system and society.
Fearing for his safety, Gulen had chosen exile in the U.S. - but this did not shield him from accusations of having organized the coup. Turkey demanded his extradition; a demand rejected by the U.S. courts until proof of his involvement can be produced. Erdogan has responded by claiming that the U.S. was complicit in the so-called Gulenist plot.
Altogether, some 40,000 Turks were arrested for their alleged participation in the failed July coup, including more than 10,000 military personnel and thousands of judges, teachers and journalists. Most were subsequently released, but many lost their jobs. Others are still in custody and awaiting trial.
These repressive measures were calculated to instill fear and discourage people from joining opposition groups and demonstrations such as the Gezi Park protests in 2013, when secular Turks spontaneously organized a mass movement against the Erdogan government in the heart of Istanbul.
Meanwhile, the president has worked to whip up nationalist and anti-American sentiment. Students are encouraged to join uniformed paramilitary units and parade in the streets to demonstrate their fealty to the leader. The Turkish Religious Affairs Directorate is issuing directives explaining to young people the importance of martyrdom to defend a new and Islamic Turkey, while the creation of Islamic schools is encouraged. The government is also exhorting families to have three to five children.
The West has watched helplessly as a NATO ally starts to slide into what could become an Islamic dictatorship, flouting human rights and the EU's core standards of law and order. Then there is Turkey's rapprochement with Russia, which has become a serious issue for NATO.
Turkey is a major partner in NATO and one of the procurement group that is developing and manufacturing the Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter, of which it has ordered 116. Yet in December 2017, the Turkish government signed a contract to buy two S-400 air defense batteries from Russia, even though these missile systems are not compatible with NATO equipment.
Ankara has also taken to threatening the U.S., warning that when Turkish troops complete their takeover of Afrin in northern Syria, their next target will be Kurdish-held territory near Manbij, where American troops are training mostly Kurdish units that make up the backbone of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). So far, the U.S. has only asked the Turkish authorities to show "moderation," but Washington has a tough decision to make. It must either withdraw from Syria, as President Donald Trump recently suggested, or risk a military confrontation with a NATO ally with the alliance's second largest army.
The EU is also in a quandary. It made a 6 billion-euro deal with Turkey to stop the flow of refugees from Syria, promising in return to restart talks on EU membership and waive entry visas for Turkish citizens. But the accession negotiations remain stalled and no EU country has shown readiness for a waiver that could allow millions of Turkish Muslims into Europe with no vetting whatsoever. President Erdogan has made threats against some EU member states, including Germany and the Netherlands, after they refused to allow the ruling AKP to hold campaign rallies on their territory. He even threatened lately France over President Macron's meeting with a SDF delegation and expressing his concern over the Afrin operation in the last Brussels summit on 24 March.
Erdogan seems to feel that he has been given free rein. That explains why his troops took Afrin, inflicting severe hardship on the Kurdish civilian population, which is largely made up of refugees. The Assad regime vigorously protested this invasion of Syrian territory and even sent reinforcements that proved no match for Turkish army and their allies in the so-called "Free Syrian Army."
Turkish troops have also set up observation points near Idlib, one of the "de-conflicting" zones established at the Astana summit. Erdogan has indicated that he wishes to take part in the attack on this largest remaining bastion of anti-Assad rebels that is being prepared by pro-Assad forces and their allies Russia and Iran.
Resumption of diplomatic ties with Israel has not cooled Turkey's support for Hamas. When Qatar expelled the movement's leaders in 2017 under pressure from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, they quickly found refuge in Turkey, where they continued to plan terror attacks against Israel. Ankara still sees itself a close ally of Qatar. In accordance with a 2014 treaty, Turkey set up a military base in the country and reinforced its small contingent in a show of solidarity after Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and Egypt imposed an embargo on the emirate.
On the surface, relations between Ankara and Tehran are good; they are joint sponsors of the Astana process and have exchanged visits of their top military leadership last year. Nevertheless, Turkey is closely monitoring Iranian penetration into Iraqi Kurdistan and its efforts to set up a safe route for its militias through Syria and into Lebanon - skirting the Turkish border. Shia Iran and Sunni Turkey have conflicting interests and are both striving for regional hegemony.
Of late Turkey is extending its reach to the Red Sea. A military base was built in Somalia to train Somali soldiers according to an agreement signed in October 2017. Two months later, Sudanese President Umar al-Bashir granted Turkey an indefinite lease of the strategic island of Suakin in the Red Sea, midway between the Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb strait and a departure point for ferries to Jedda in Saudi Arabia.
Suakin was once the seat of an Ottoman governor and the Turks are allegedly interested in restoring historical buildings of that era - and perhaps establishing a naval base as well. A direct Turkish presence in the Horn of Africa is perceived as a threat by Egypt and Saudi Arabia, with whom the Erdogan government is feuding. The Sudan treaty also indirectly strengthens Ethiopia in its dispute with Egypt over the Nile dam project.
Potential for escalation
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has gone as far as to say that Turkey is part of a "triangle of evil" with Iran and jihadi terror movements, and he accused Erdogan of trying to revive the caliphate. Some of these views appear to have been shared by members of the Trump administration, including former National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster, who said in December 2017 that Turkey and Qatar are "sponsors of radical ideology."
Regarding relations with Israel it's believed that they will be marked by periodical crises. Erdogan will continue to vilify Israel in order to enhance his image among the Arabs as a great Muslim leader in his unrelenting march to the caliphate. Relations will probably not be severed because it might hurt the Turkish economy whose success is vital to the advancement of Erdogan's ambitions.
To sum up: the potential for escalation is there. The Arab world will never countenance a renewed Turkish hegemony in the Middle East. Washington, deeply worried by the aggressive policy of a fellow NATO country against the Kurds - American allies - along with Turkey's ties to Russia and Iran, is still looking for a suitable path of action. Moscow is unhappy with Ankara's growing involvement in Syria, which puts it at loggerheads with the Assad regime and will make resolution of the civil war more difficult.
There could be a long and costly military operation between the Turkish army and Syrian and Kurdish troops. Saudi Arabia and Egypt are looking for ways to dislodge Turkey from its new Red Sea strongholds. Finally, President Erdogan's activism and military gambles might begin to erode his public support at home, despite his apparent overwhelming popularity.
Another prophetic thought on Turkey - Bill Wilson - www.dailyjot.com
We have been watching the actions of Turkey and its "president" Recep Tayyip Erdogan for quite some time as a prophetic indicator. The Islamic Caliphate/Ottoman Empire, headquartered in Turkey, was one of the longest lasting empires in history spanning 624 years from 1299 to 1923. Its control over the Middle East was far greater than the Roman Empire. Some scholars now believe that a revived Ottoman Empire is the one prophesied as the end-time antichrist system. The end time battle of Ezekiel 38 is led from specific locations in Turkey--Magog, Meshech, Tubal. Also Christ is quoted in Revelation 2:13 that Pergamos is "even where Satan's seat is...where Satan dwells." Pergamon is in Turkey.
Turkey is leading the media charge that Israel is a terrorist state because it "massacred" some 60 "Palestinians" on the day the US Embassy was dedicated. Erdogan is using the Jews to enrage the Muslim world against Israel. Erdogan claims Israel is no different than the Nazis because it killed Hamas terrorists trying to invade Israel's border with Gaza. Hamas admitted that of the 60 people killed, 50 were members of Hamas, who were instigating and leading the riots aimed at storming the Israeli border. Warning after warning was given that deadly force would be used if the invasion persisted. Erdogan led an Organization of Islamic Cooperation summit to condemn Israel and the US for the killings.
The Wall Street Journal is now reporting that Turkey's currency, the lira, fell as much as 5% on Wednesday and has lost as much as 20% of its value so far this year, "adding to a long decline that is forcing extreme monetary measures to compensate." WSJ reports, that Erdogan is to blame, "Turkey has been running a current-account deficit that is on trend to exceed 6% of GDP...With capital fleeing, Mr. Erdogan is getting higher interest rates in any case as the central bank tries to stem the lira panic. On Wednesday the bank lifted a key lending rate to 16.5% from 13.5%. Consider this the price of the lost credibility of Turkish institutions under Mr. Erdogan's increasingly authoritarian rule. Dictators are rarely good economic managers because they want to dictate fiscal and monetary policy as much as they do every political choice."
WSJ compared Turkey's financial woes to Argentina's. We know that Argentina has fallen into a deep state of financial despair. Could Turkey be headed in a similar direction? Now this is very subtle, prophetically. Speaking of Gog of Magog (Located in Turkey), Ezekiel 38:10-12 says, "Thus says the Lord God; It shall also come to pass, that at the same time shall things come into your mind, and you shall think an evil thought: And you shall say, I will go up to the land of unwalled villages; I will go to them that are at rest, that dwell safely, all of them dwelling without walls, and having neither bars nor gates, to take a spoil, and to take a prey." Financial desperation could be a reason to take a spoil from a prosperous land. We could be seeing the beginning of how that evil thought may develop.
Israel's Coming War Won't Be Against Iran or Syria - By Darius Shahtahmasebi -https://www.lewrockwell.com/2018/05/no_author/israels-coming-war-wont-be-against-iran-or-syria/
Writing in the Asia Times earlier this month, David P. Goldman lamented that an Israel-Iran war is unlikely to take place any time soon. His observation appears surprising considering the mainstream media has been hyping up the idea of such a war over the past few months.
Nevertheless, he is correct. Short of something catastrophic that completely upsets the current status quo, there are many signs that Israel and Iran are not headed for a direct confrontation in the immediate future. Though the mainstream media dishonestly advertises such a war, the truth is that Israel's next war will not take place in Iran - or even Syria for that matter. It is far more likely to take place in Lebanon.
As Goldman explained:
"Harder to calculate is Iran's capacity to hit Israel. Hezbollah has perhaps 120,000 missiles in Lebanon, more than enough to swamp Israel's 'Iron Dome' and other defenses. They are embedded in approximately 200 Shi'ite villages in Lebanon's south. That makes it difficult for the Israeli Army to attack missile launchers without killing a large number of Shi'ite civilians who provide an enormous human shield.
"But if Israel perceives the missiles as an existential threat, it will 'bomb Lebanon back to the stone age,' as Transportation Minister Israel Katz said in February. Casualties would be in tens of thousands. Hezbollah is Iran's ally and to a great extent its creation, but an Israeli counterattack might mean the end of the Shi'ite community in Lebanon with catastrophic casualty levels - what one Israeli analyst described as "a Dresden,' referring to the destruction of the German city by firestorm during the Second World War."
As Anti-Media has documented over the past few years, Israel has been actively preparing for a war with Hezbollah in Lebanon for some time, including conducting extensive military drills that simulated a full-on invasion of Lebanese territory.
"There's no doubt that Israel is planning for a war with Hezbollah, but it isn't an easy task," public intellectual Professor Noam Chomsky told Anti-Media via email last week.
"According to Israeli intelligence, Hezbollah has lots of missiles based in many parts of Lebanon that are capable of serious damage to Israeli cities, and to take them all out would require quick virtual destruction of Lebanon, it seems." Chomsky further observed.
Writing to Anti-Media via email, Miko Peled, human rights activist and author of The General's Son and Injustice and The Story of the Holy Land Foundation Five agreed with the assertion that Israel's most immediate impending war will take place in Lebanon, not Syria or Iran.
"I don't believe any of the Iran threat nonsense has anything to do with a threat from Iran. It serves two purposes: a smokescreen for Israeli crimes in Palestine in general, particularly in Gaza, and in order to allow Israel to attack Syria and Lebanon more freely," Peled explained.
According to Peled, Trump's decision to nix the Iranian nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was part and parcel of this up and coming war. What no one seems to have noticed was that Trump's recent announcement on Iran also coincided with elections in Lebanon, which further improved Hezbollah's position in the country (Lebanon's Christian president is already a strong ally of Hezbollah).
"Having Trump accept Netanyahu's [position on the Iran deal] and disregard the international community, international agencies, and world opinion regarding the Iran deal - and the economic sanctions - was a huge political boost for Netanyahu," Peled explained. "The election results in Lebanon will surely be manipulated and presented as a 'threat' to Israel and will be used as an excuse to attack. I doubt that Israel will risk suffering another humiliating defeat from Hezbollah and so it may well be another horrifying air assault."
In March of this year, Israel even simulated a multi-front war in which Russia stepped in to protect Syria from Israeli attacks. While this was a scenario in which Russia was protecting Syria, not Lebanon, the fact remains that this hypothetical event was considered as a result of Israel's true intention to take on Hezbollah in Lebanon, which would naturally segue into other arenas, including Syria.
It is also important to note that Israel's recent all-out assault in Syria, allegedly tied to Israel's perceived Iranian involvement, has actually helped Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu improve his domestic standing in the face of numerous allegations of corruption and bribery. It could be the case that the strikes on Syria and the demonization of Iran are just tools for domestic pacification while the real impending conflict we should be turning our attention toward continues to be overlooked.
Also overlooked by the corporate media is an event which took place at the end of April: Newly appointed Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Tel Aviv and allegedly gave Israel the go-ahead to use bunker-busting bombs to take out Iranian armaments in Syria.
In September of last year, Israel held its largest military drill in 20 years, which was specifically designed to simulate a war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. In February of this year, thousands of U.S. and Israeli troops took part in the biennial 'Juniper Cobra' drill, which simulated a "massive ballistic missile attack against Israel" and the joint U.S.-Israeli response. At this stage, with the exception of some unknown capabilities in Syria (a significant number of which were already destroyed by Israel last month), there's only one country that could potentially launch a "massive ballistic missile attack against Israel" - and no one is talking about it.
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