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Saturday, May 2, 2015

IRAN UPDATE: 5.1.15 - Iran: The Middle East's North Korea


 
"And now, O Lord, for what do I wait? My hope is in you." (Psalm 39:7)
 
It appears that world powers are closer than ever to a nuclear deal with Iran, which US Secretary of State John Kerry described to the UN on Monday as a "good, comprehensive deal," and if accomplished, one that "will make the entire world safer."
 
Hosting South Korean Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Education Hwang Woo-yea, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday that he was concerned over the nuclear negotiation talks in Lausanne, Switzerland between Iran and the six world powers and cited North Korea's nuclear history.
 
"We have a great deal to learn from each other and be inspired by each other," Netanyahu said in regard to South Korea and Israel's relations. "But we also heed the example of the negotiations with North Korea, the nuclear negotiations," said the Israeli prime minister.
 
"It was said that the inspections would prevent proliferation. It was said then that they would moderate North Korea's aggressive behavior," said Netanyahu. He also noted that there were expectations that North Korea would eventually integrate into the family of nations following negotiations.
 
In 1994, North Korea pledged to freeze and dismantle its nuclear weapons program in a nuclear agreement signed with the United States in exchange for international aid to create two power-producing nuclear reactors.
 
Four years later, North Korea fired a rocket over Japan, which landed in the Pacific Ocean, and the US demanded inspections of North Korea's suspected construction of an underground nuclear facility.  US inspectors found no evidence of nuclear activity several months later, and in 1999, then-US President Bill Clinton agreed to ease economic sanctions against North Korea.
 
In the same year, the US-led international consortium signed a $4.6 billion contract to build two nuclear reactors in North Korea, which by 2001, North Korea declared that it was unsatisfied with US progress on the project and threatened to restart its nuclear program again.
 
In 2002, following US accusations of violations of the 1994 nuclear agreement, North Korea admitted that it had been operating a uranium enrichment facility. At the end of the year, North Korea expelled International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors and reactivated its nuclear power facilities in 2003. North Korea also officially withdrew from a 1992 agreement with South Korea to keep the Korean Peninsula free of nuclear weapons.
 
In the span of the next decade, nuclear talks between the US and North Korea floundered as more agreements were made and broken. At one point in October 2008, the US State Department announced that North Korea would be removed from the US list of states that sponsor terrorism.
 
But by February 2013, North Korea had conducted its third underground nuclear test and a year later, according to the South Korean Defense Ministry, North Korea launched four scud missiles in the direction of Russia, all of which fell into the sea.
 
In January 2015, the US imposed new sanctions on North Korea.
 
During the meeting with the South Korean deputy prime minister, Netanyahu noted that he believes the current Lausanne framework would repeat the mistakes made with North Korea.
 
"I think freeze and inspect is not an adequate substitute for dismantle and remove. Under the Lausanne framework, Iran is left with the ability to develop with R&D advanced centrifuges that actually advance its nuclear program. And needless to say, I don't think there's any effective inspection," said Netanyahu.
 
"I think we can learn all the good things that have happened on the Korean peninsula, but also the bad things that have happened in the nuclear negotiations," he said.
 
"So I think a repetition of these mistakes is a great historic blunder," emphasized the Israeli prime minister.

Iran swings behind escalated Syrian-Hezbollah anti-Israel terror offensive on the Golan - http://www.debka.com/article/24574/Iran-swings-behind-escalated-Syrian-Hizballah-anti-Israel-terror-offensive-on-the-Golan-

 
The Syrian and Hezbollah military delegations visiting Tehran this week achieved their purpose: debkafile's intelligence and military sources report that in three days of talks up until Friday April 30, Syrian Defense Minister Gen. Fahad Jassim al-Freij procured from his Iranian counterpart Hussein Dehghan, approval for a stepped up terror campaign against Israeli forces and civilians on the Golan, to be executed by terrorist surrogates. Iran pledged its support for this campaign and promised to make the Revolutionary Guards and Afghani Shiite forces present in Syria available, in the event of an Israeli counter-attack.
 
 A stamping ground, designated "the open area," was to be provided for all terrorist militias willing to attack Israel. It would stretch from Damascus to the Golan - a distance of 60 km by road - and take in the Syrian Hermon and Lebanese Chebaa Farms. Syrian and Hezbollah military intelligence services will take responsibility for coordinating their operations and providing them with arms and intelligence.
 
According to the plan approved in Tehran, Syria and Hezbollah will establish new militias for their campaign as well as deploying existing terrorist groups.
 
 One such framework, made up of Syrian Druzes, was set up in recent weeks. Its first attack last Sunday April 26 - an attempt to plant a bomb near an Israeli Golan border position - was a flop. All four bombers were killed in an Israeli air strike and the device did not detonate.
 
 The commander of the new Druze militia is Samir Kuntar, a name familiar to Israelis as the murderer of the Haran family of Nahariya and two police officers, who got out of prison in 2008 after serving 36 years of a life sentence. Kuntar is a rare Lebanese Druze who joined Hezbollah in his youth.
 
Our sources note that President Bashar Assad many times suggested setting up a special Syrian-Palestinian "resistance movement" for taking back the Golan, which Israel captured during Syria's 1967 invasion and later annexed.
 
 However, the terrorist attacks on Israel were left until now mostly to Palestinian squads created ad hoc for single operations. They were often drawn from Ahmed Jibril's PFLP-General Command group or recruited in the Yarmuk refugee camp in Damascus.
 
 But now, Assad and his Hezbollah ally are set on a serious escalation by different tactics, debkafile's sources report. For a major terror offensive, they are building new frameworks with local recruits mustered in South Lebanon and the Syrian Golan. Some of those militiamen have been seen moving about in the Druze villages scattered over Jabal Druze and the Hermon up to the Chebaa farms.
 
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