Iran pushing Hezbollah to carry out attacks against Israel - http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=25105
Iran has instructed Syria and Hezbollah to provoke conflict on northern border, says Channel 10 * Orders believed to be a ploy to increase Iran's regional influence * Israel's U.N. envoy calls on Security Council to condemn Sunday's infiltration attempt.
Iran has recently increased its pressure on Hezbollah and Syria to carry out attacks on the Israel-Syria and Israel-Lebanon borders, Channel 10 News reported Tuesday.
Syrian Defense Minister Gen. Fahd Jassem al-Freij, who is also deputy commander of the Syrian armed forces, met his Iranian counterpart Hossein Dehghan on Tuesday, in Tehran.
The rare visit was aimed at "strengthening coordination and cooperation between the two armies ... especially in the face of terrorism and common challenges in the region," the state-run Syrian Arab News Agency said.
According to Channel 10, the Syrian official was instructed to mount "forceful responses" over the recent alleged Israeli strikes in Syria.
Arab media reported Sunday that the Israeli Air Force had struck sites in the Qalamoun Mountains, north of Damascus, twice last week. The report was not corroborated by any Israeli source.
"We will not allow anyone to infringe on Syria's sovereignty," Dehghan told Iranian media.
A growing number of reports from Syria suggesting that President Bashar Assad's regime is on the verge of collapse and is giving way to increasing Iranian involvement in the war-torn country are being closely monitored by Israel.
Channel 10 Arab affairs analyst Zvi Yehezkeli hedged that Iran, which is striving to tighten its grip on the region even at Syria's expense, has instructed Syria and Hezbollah to provoke Israel, hoping that the potential security escalation will lead to a full-blown conflict between Israel and Syria.
"Syria, Iran and the axis of resistance will not allow their enemies to harm Syria or the region. Iran supports Syria unequivocally, and will continue to pursue the [two] nations' strategic relationship," said a joint statement issued by the Syrian and Iranian defense ministers on Tuesday.
Also on Tuesday, Army Radio reported that Israeli Ambassador to the U.N. Ron Prosor has called on U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and the Security Council to condemn Syria over a recent infiltration attempt on the northern border.
Sunday saw the Israel Defense Forces thwart an attempt by a four-man terrorist cell to place explosives on the Israel-Syria border in the Golan Heights. A military aircraft scrambled to the area and struck the cell, neutralizing the threat.
"Israel holds Syria responsible for any attack or attempted attack emanating from its territory," Prosor said.
In his letter to Ban and the Security Council, Prosor wrote, "In recent months, the Syrian government has allowed terrorists to use its territory as a launching base to plant roadside bombs, fire rockets into Israel, and open fire on IDF forces inside Israel.
"I have repeatedly warned about the growing threat in northern Israel. In my remarks last week to the Security Council, I described how Hezbollah, backed by Iran, is openly operating in the Golan Heights and preparing for a violent confrontation with Israel."
The international community, Prosor wrote, "can no longer ignore the warning signs. The threat to our region is very real. Israel will not accept any attacks on its territory and it will exercise its right to self-defense and take all necessary measures to protect its population.
"I urge the Security Council to immediately and unequivocally condemn this attack and demand that the Syrian government abide by its obligations under international law."
Hezbollah officers land in Tehran with Syrian defense chief. Iran OKs anti-Israel strategy - http://www.debka.com/article/24565/DEBKA-reveals-Hizballah-officers-land-in-Tehran-with-Syrian-defense-chief-Iran-OKs-anti-Israel-strategy
A high-level Hezbollah delegation arrived secretly in Tehran Tuesday, April 28, along with the large military group led by Syrian Defense Minister Fahad Jassim al-Freij, debkafile's intelligence sources report exclusively. Both are taking part in the four days of military and intelligence consultations with Iranian officials on the war situation in Syria and the steps planned against Israel. According to a senior Gulf intelligence official, "The parties quickly finalized their plans of action against Israel, and the IDF will no doubt face on the Golan a far more active and intense front than they have seen yet."
The failed attempt Sunday, April 26, by a Druze squad to plant a bomb near an Israeli military border post in northern Golan was just a foretaste of the coming offensive, according to the source.
He found Hezbollah's active participation in the Syrian-Iranian military talks in Tehran entirely natural, in view of the doubling of the Lebanese Shiite organization's combat troops fighting alongside the Syrian army to roughly 7,000. This figure is over and above the missile, intelligence and logistics units assisting the Syrian war effort now in its fifth year.
debkafile reported earlier that the Syrian rocket-mortar fire on Golan Tuesday was timed for Gen. Freij's arrival in Tehran to collect his next orders.
The two rockets or mortar shells from Syria which exploded on the Golan at noon Tuesday, April 28, followed by alerts along the Galilee border with Syria, were timed to coincide exactly with the arrival in Tehran of a large Syrian military delegation led by Defense Minister Fahad Jassim al-Freij. High on the agenda of his consultations with Iranian leaders was no doubt the explosive situation developing on the Syrian-Israeli border.
Syrian President Bashar Assad and Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah are reported by debkafile's intelligence sources to have held urgent discussions in the last few days on how to react to the two Israeli air strikes reported by Arab media to have been conducted Wednesday, April 22 and Friday, April 24, on their Qalamoun mountain missile bases.
Both needed to hear from Tehran how far they could count on Iranian support in the event of a military showdown with Israel.
Israeli military spokesmen have gone out of their way to play down the risk of any further security deterioration. After the fragments of at two rockets or mortar shells were discovered Tuesday on the land of Kibbutz Ein Zivan near the border fence opposite Quneitra, military sources tried to calm people by attributing them to "spillover" from the fighting on the Syrian side of the border. The farmers were nonetheless advised to stop work in the apple and cherry orchards, and would not be surprised if the Syrians kept up their cross-border fire to provide "background music" for their defense minister's discussions in Tehran.
The IDF also omitted mentioning that the squad of four terrorists which tried Sunday, April 26, to plant an explosive device near an Israeli border post in this same area - and was liquidated by the Israeli Air Force - were Druze militiamen, recruited and trained by Hezbollah and given their assignment by Syria's southern intelligence chief, Wafeeq Naser.
debkafile's military sources calculate that the coming hours may be critical for Israel's northern front against Syria and Hezbollah. If Tehran gives the nod, both are liable to ratchet up their assaults on northern Israel's Golan and Galilee regions.
They won't have to wait for Gen. Al-Freij's return to learn about this decision. The appropriate directives may be flashed directly from Tehran to the Iranian officers based at Syrian staff headquarters in Damascus and serving in the military facilities in southern Syria and opposite the Golan.
Assad may welcome this outlet to vent his frustration as his army licks its wounds from the loss Saturday, April 25, of the strategic town of Jisr al-Shukjhour in the northern Syrian Idlib province, to a coalition of opposition forces calling itself the Army of Conquest. This puts the rebels in position to threaten one of Assad's most important strongholds, Latakia. The Syrian ruler, if he wants to survive, can't hope to weather both the Idlib defeat and Israeli air strikes in less than a week, without hitting back.
Israel Will Strike Iran First To Thwart Nuclear Attack - Eric Worrall - http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/04/28/israel-will-strike-iran-first-to-thwart-nuclear-attack/
Israel is not in a pleasant situation. Every day, her arch enemy Iran draws closer to refining enough uranium to build 100s of nuclear weapons.
Every day the Iranian program becomes more difficult to dislodge - as the uranium is concentrated, the number of centrifuges required to complete the process decreases, allowing the remaining refining operation to be moved to smaller and more covert facilities.
America, ostensibly Israel's ally, is rumored to have ordered US warships to shoot down Israeli aircraft, should a strike on Iran appear to be in progress. According to Israeli newspapers, President Obama thwarted a planned 2014 Israeli attack against Iranian nuclear facilities, by threatening to shoot down the Israeli bombers.
America is currently sending additional warships to the Persian Gulf - ostensibly to blockade Iranian supply runs to rebels in Yemen, but if rumors of President Obama's threat against Israel are correct, perhaps also to reinforce US firepower, should Israel decide to mount an attack against Iran.
There is no doubt an attack is on the drawing board - the Israeli Defense Force admitted they are training for an attack on Iran, in a recent interview with The Times of Israel.
Iran may pose a grave existential threat to Israel - at least Israel believes they do and they appear to have good reasons for their concerns. According to an Israeli report written in 2008, Iran regularly state that Israel will shortly be wiped from the face of the Earth.
Regardless of whether the Iranian threats are as bad as is claimed, or whether Iran actually means what they say, the Iranian nuclear program will provide Iran with the means to fulfill this terrifying threat.
Iran is currently purchasing an advanced Russian air defense system - which will further complicate the job of attacking Iran, should Israel choose to mount an attack.
If Israel does decide to mount an attack against Iran, they will run a gauntlet - they will have to fly long distances, over hostile Syria, and other unfriendly countries. They will potentially face a massive counterattack from the growing American presence in the Persian Gulf. When they finally reach Iran, they will suffer even more casualties from the advanced Russian anti-aircraft systems, which will shortly be operational.
And when a handful of Israeli aircraft finally reach their targets, the surviving Israeli warplanes will have to somehow inflict sufficient damage on heavily armoured nuclear facilities, some of which are buried hundreds of feet underground, to prevent them from being repaired.
There is only one kind of bomb in Israel's arsenal, which can fulfill this military requirement.
A weak Iran deal, if it is ratified, will in my opinion be a lot more than a diplomatic failure - for the reasons I have provided, I believe it may trigger a nuclear war.
Rocket-mortar fire on Golan timed for Syrian defense chief's visit to Tehran for his next orders - http://www.debka.com/article/24565/Rocket-mortar-fire-on-Golan-timed-for-Syrian-defense-chief's-visit-to-Tehran-for-his-next-orders
The two rockets or mortar shells from Syria which exploded on the Golan at noon Tuesday, April 28, followed by alerts along the Galilee border with Syria, were timed to coincide exactly with the arrival in Tehran of a large Syrian military delegation led by Defense Minister Fahad Jassim al-Freij. High on the agenda of his consultations with Iranian leaders was no doubt the explosive situation developing on the Syrian-Israeli border.
Syrian President Bashar Assad and Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah are reported by debkafile's intelligence sources to have held urgent discussions in the last few days on how to react to the two Israeli air strikes reported by Arab media to have been conducted Wednesday, April 22 and Friday, April 24, on their Qalamoun mountain missile bases.
Both needed to hear from Tehran how far they could count on Iranian support in the eventuality of a military showdown with Israel.
Israeli military spokesmen have gone out of their way to play down the risk of any further security deterioration. After the fragments of at two rockets or mortar shells were discovered Tuesday on the land of Kibbutz Ein Zivan near the border fence opposite Quneitra, military sources tried to calm people by attributing them to "spillover" from the fighting on the Syrian side of the border. The farmers were nonetheless advised to stop work in the apple and cherry orchards, and were not surprised when the Syrians kept up their cross-border fire to provide "background music" for their defense minister's discussions in Tehran.
The IDF also omitted mentioning that the squad of four terrorists which tried Sunday, April 26, to plant an explosive device near an Israeli border post in this same area - and was liquidated by the Israeli Air Force - were Druze militiamen, recruited and trained by Hezbollah and given their assignment by Syria's southern intelligence chief, Wafeeq Naser.
debkafile's military sources calculate that the coming hours may be critical for Israel's northern front against Syria and Hezbollah. If Tehran gives the nod, both are liable to ratchet up their assaults on northern Israel's Golan and Galilee regions.
They won't have to wait for Gen. Al-Freij's return to learn about this decision. The appropriate directives may be flashed directly from Tehran to the Iranian officers based at Syrian staff headquarters in Damascus and serving in the military facilities in southern Syria and opposite the Golan.
Assad may welcome this outlet to vent his frustration as his army licks its wounds from the loss Saturday, April 25, of the strategic town of Jisr al-Shukjhour in the northern Syrian Idlib province, to a coalition of opposition forces calling itself the Army of Conquest. This puts the rebels in position to threaten one of Assad's most important strongholds, Latakia. The Syrian ruler, if he wants to survive, can't hope to weather both the Idlib defeat and Israeli air strikes in less than a week, without hitting back.
For Israel and Hezbollah, a high-stakes balancing act - By Mitch Ginsburg -
On the periphery of the Syrian civil war, the two foes angle for advantages, risking all-out conflict
The Party of God - Hezbollah - is stretched thin, pulled in different directions by the axles of its ideology, raising a host of questions for Israel as tensions flare along the northern border.
On Sunday night, after two airstrikes in Syria that were attributed to Israel, forces on the Syrian Golan Heights, apparently operating under the auspices of Hezbollah, attempted to lay a mine along the border fence targeting IDF personnel. The squad was picked up by Israeli surveillance and killed by an IAF aircraft. The questions that linger in the wake of that strike and counter-strike relate to the clandestine war waged in the shadow of the Syrian civil war: To what extent do the covert actions risk a full-scale war? Is such a development at this time in Israel's favor? And what, precisely, are the restraining factors?
Working from the outside in, the Iranian angle looms largest. The Iranian-Shiite affiliation, which has risen to the fore amid the Syrian civil war, drew Hezbollah into combat in Sunni Syria, forced it to bury hundreds of its men, and tarnished the Lebanese part of its identity. But it also restrained it in its response to alleged Israeli action, several former military officers said.
In January, after an Iranian general and several senior Hezbollah operatives were killed, reportedly by Israel, in the Syrian Golan, the commander of Iran's Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani, flew to Beirut. Many assumed he was there to ensure that Hezbollah's response to the allegedly Israeli action would be sufficiently sharp. Brig. Gen. (res) Shimon Shapira, a former military secretary to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and a senior research associate at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, asserted that the opposite was true.
"He went there to restrain them," he said, "to ensure that Israel was not given a pretext to act with massive force."
He asserted that the entire notion of deterrence vis-à-vis Hezbollah, in fact, "is an illusion" and that the sole reason for restraint is Iran, which wants to ensure that its investment in Hezbollah - in cash and in arms - is saved for its true designation, as a deterrent against an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
Former national security adviser Maj. Gen. Yaakov Amidror, today a fellow at Bar Ilan University's BESA Center for Strategic Studies, assented. He said that from the Iranian perspective, if Hezbollah triggers a war with Israel and is forced to pull its fighting rank out of Syria, "there is no way to save [Syrian President] Bashar [Assad]," because Iran, which has sent cadres of advisers to Syria, is not about to send the necessary number of troops.
Additionally, of course, there is the overarching goal of serving as the primary deterrent against an Israeli attack on the nuclear facilities, he said, but added that too firm a grip on the reins, curtailing Hezbollah's ability to act, could render it "a paper tiger," which Iran can ill afford.
Militarily, Amidror said, "there are tremendous advantages" to Israel launching a preemptive war. Citing the 1956 campaign in the Sinai - in which Israel seized control of the heavily fortified desert within a week - and the 1982 Lebanon War - in which four divisions tore through Lebanon and reached the outskirts of Beirut within a similar time frame - he said that he is aware "of at least one person" within Israel's security establishment who is eager for Hezbollah to overstep its bounds in response to the allegedly Israeli airstrikes. Israel, in such an instance, he said, could capitalize on that, as it did in June 1982 after the London assassination attempt on Israeli ambassador Shlomo Argov, and strike Hezbollah while it is stretched thin.
Diplomatically, though, he said, the price Israel would pay, in the face of a preemptive war that left Lebanon in tatters, would be painful indeed.
Instead, what seems to have developed is a peripheral battle in which both sides adhere to "the rules of the game," said Brig. Gen. (res) Yossi Kuperwasser, a former head of the Military Intelligence Directorate's Research Division and a new senior research associate at the JCPA. "And I think that it is clear that just as they, in the rules of the game, may try to build firepower, so too is it permissible for there to be reports about Israeli attempts to thwart that."
As for whether or not such actions might unintentionally tip the delicate balance toward war, both he and Amidror concurred that Israel and Hezbollah are performing a balancing act over a precipitously high drop. "It's a risk," Amidror said. "Every time anew."
Hezbollah terror attack on Golan stokes face-off between Israel and the Syrian-Hezbollah alliance - http://www.debka.com/article/24562/Hizballah-terror-attack-on-Golan-stokes-face-off-between-Israel-and-the-Syrian-Hizballah-alliance
According to Arab media, Israeli executed its third strike against Syrian and Hezbollah targets in the Qalamoun area on the Syrian Lebanese border Sunday night, April 26 - shortly after Hezbollah attempted to plant an explosive device near an Israeli Golan military post.
But then, Monday morning, anonymous Israeli sources improbably attributed this air strike to possible Syrian opposition action by the Al Qaeda's Nusra Front.
Hezbollah was meanwhile identified as responsible for the thwarted bomb attack on the Israeli Sheita military post guarding the northern Golan border with Syria. "Four terrorists placed an explosive on a fence near Majdel Shams. The air force thwarted the attack, killing all four," a military spokesman said.
On the face of it, Israel's purported third air strike over Syrian territory in five days, this time targeting the Wadi a-Sheikh and Al Abasiya regions of the Qalamoun mountains, was in retaliation for the thwarted Hezbollah attack on the Golan.
However, debkafile's military sources give the exchange of blows a different slant: It is more likely to be the onset of a systematic Israeli campaign to wipe out Syrian-Hezbollah military bases repositioned on the mountain range as depots and launching-pads for firing long-range missiles into Israel from Syrian territory.
A clue to this objective was offered Sunday night by Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon in a firm statement that Israel would not permit Iran to arm Hezbollah with advanced weapons. He did not explicitly admit to the air strikes of last Wednesday and Saturday, which were reported by Arab TV stations to have hit surface-to-surface missile depots on Qalamoun. But he nearly gave the game away. He accused Iran of trying to arm Hezbollah with advanced weapons by every possible route. "We will not allow the delivery of sophisticated weapons to terrorist groups, Hezbollah in particular... or allow Hezbollah to establish a terror infrastructure on our borders with Israel," the minister said, adding: "We know how to lay hands on anyone who threatens Israeli citizens, along our borders or even far from them."
In a previous report, debkafile disclosed that Syrian and Hezbollah forces were on the point of conducting an offensive, under Iranian Revolutionary Guards officers, to flush Syrian rebels out of their last remaining pockets on the mountain slopes in order to clear the Syrian-Lebanese highway link for troop and arms convoys between the two countries.
We also reported that Hezbollah had already relocated substantial military manpower and missile stocks from northern Lebanon to an enclave it now controlled on the Syrian Qalamoun mountains.
The anonymous sources' attribution of Sunday night's air strike to the Nusra Front sounded more like a lame cover story than a serious supposition. The Syrian opposition has never managed to use air power against the armies of Assad and Hezbollah. Nusra did capture a few fighter-bombers from the enemy, but never acquired the technical infrastructure, ordnance or trained pilots to fly them.
This improbable theory would in any case contradict the warning message Israel was clearly addressing to Damascus and Hezbollah that any violations of Israel's red lines on their part would be met with action to knock over their military set-up on their shared border, section by section - even at the risk of a showdown with Iran in the Syrian arena.
Israel's destruction of the Qalamoun war machine would have four far-reaching ramifications:
1. It would impair the Syrian army's capabilities and strike at the heart of the Assad regime.
2. It would give a strong leg up to the Syrian opposition, especially Al Qaeda's Nusra Front, which is emerging as the strongest and most effective paramilitary force in the Syrian opposition camp.
3. It would curtail the transformation of the Qalamoun Mts. into Hizballah's most important forward base of attack against Israel.
It is hard to see Tehran standing by if the sparring escalates further and Israel continues to punch away at the Islamic Republic's two most valuable strategic assets. Direct action by Iran would not be its style. Tehran would rather put the Syrian army and Hezbollah up to stepping up its campaign of terror against Israel, possibly by expanding the arena across two borders into Lebanon and Israel itself.
Last week, the Obama administration managed to hold back the clash threatening to blow up opposite Yemen by the US, Saudi and Egyptian navies against an Iran convoy. Washington is likely to lean hard on Israel and Tehran to make sure that the current sparring does not run out of control and explode into a military showdown.
If this happened, Tehran would likely refuse to sign the nuclear deal which is nearing conclusion with the world powers led by the US.
Iran Revolutionary Guard chief: Saudi Arabia following in footsteps of Israel -
Saudi Arabia is a betrayer who is "following in the footsteps of Israel and the Zionists," the commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard said Monday. Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari's comments came amid the Saudi-led coalition's military campaign against Iranian-backed Shi'ite Houthi rebels who are trying to take over Yemen. "Today, Saudi Arabia is brazenly and obnoxiously bombarding and massacring a nation, which is seeking the denial of the hegemonic system," Press TV quoted Jafari as saying. Air raids, naval shelling and ground fighting shook Yemen on Sunday in some of the most widespread combat since the Saudi-led alliance intervened last month against the Houthis who have seized large tracts of the country. The strikes on Sanaa were the first since the Saudi-led coalition said last week it was scaling back a campaign against the Houthis. But the air raids soon resumed as the Houthis' nationwide gains had not been notably rolled back, and there has been no visible progress toward peace talks. Jafari called on Iran's leadership to confront the Saudis for their continued campaign in Yemen. "Now that the attacks have been launched, no considerations should be shown." |
Arab sources report Israel air strikes against Syrian-Hezbollah missile bases, Hezbollah arms convoys - http://www.debka.com/article/24558/Arab-sources-report-Israel-air-strikes-against-Syrian-Hizballah-missile-bases-Hizballah-arms-convoys-DEBKAfile-Hizballah-secret-airstrip-possible-target-
Unofficial sources in Syria and Lebanon, cited by the Arab TV channels Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya, reported Saturday, April 25, that the Israeli Air Force struck Hezbollah and Syrian military targets in the Qalamoun mountains on the Syrian-Lebanese border from Wednesday, April 22, to Friday night April 24. There is no official word on these reports from Israel or Syria.
In the Wednesday attack, one person was said to have been killed.
The picture taking shape from these reports shows the targets to have been the 155th, 65th and 92nd Brigades of the Syrian army and Hezbollah, two Hezbollah arms convoys and Syrian long-range missile bases or batteries.
debkafile's military sources add that it is hardly credible that Israeli air raids spread over three days went unnoticed by the Syrian and Lebanese media. The Arab TV reports if confirmed may therefore be exaggerated in scope.
Friday, our own sources reported that Syrian and Hezbollah forces under Iranian Revolutionary Guards officers were fighting to flush out the last rebel pockets on the strategic Qalamoun mountains, to clear the highway to Lebanon for unhindered military movements - most importantly, the weapons and personnel flowing regularly across the border between the two allies.
In past reports, debkafile disclosed that Hezbollah had transferred the bulk of its personnel and a large store of missiles from northern Lebanon to a protected enclave in Qalamoun under its control. The Iranian-backed Lebanese militia calculated that this base would be safer from Israeli attack than in Lebanon. And, in the event of war, Israel would be obliged to extend its front to Syria. According to Western intelligence sources, long-range missiles are part of the store Hezbollah relocated to the Syrian mountains, whence they can be aimed at Israel.
The putative Israeli air strikes this week would therefore have aimed at thwarting Hezbollah's scheme to set up another war base in the Syrian-Lebanese mountains area.
Another likely target would be Hezbollah's first air strip for drones established in the northern Lebanese Beqaa Valley south of Hermel.
Jane's, a British publication specializing in military affairs, this week ran satellite images showing the airstrip to be 670 m long and 20 m wide, too short for most transport aircraft, excepting the Iranian Revolutionary Guards short take-off An-74T-200 transports, which carry arms for Hezbollah - although landing with a load on this mountain strip would be considered dangerous. The runway was apparently built to accommodate drones, such as the Ababil-3 and Shahed-129 types which Iran has delivered to Hezbollah.
A ticking bomb awaits Israel on its northern border - Yossi Yehoshua - http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4650595,00.html
Analysis: Even if the alleged Israeli strike in Syria destroyed a missile shipment to Hezbollah, it's still a drop in the ocean; the Shiite organization's monstrous weapons arsenal will not be eliminated by occasional surgical strikes.
Even if the alleged Israeli strike in Syria over the weekend achieved its goal and the missile shipment to Hezbollah was destroyed, and even if we believe reports from the past that the IDF attacked several other times, we should remember that it's still a drop in the ocean. Hezbollah's monstrous weapons arsenal will not be eliminated by surgical strikes once every six months.
For example, according to foreign reports, Friday's attack on the Syrian missile depot in the al-Qalamoun area near the Syria-Lebanon border targeted Scud-C missiles. But Hezbollah already obtained the more advanced Scud-D missiles a long time ago.
In recent years, Hezbollah has been emptying out all its Syrian ally's weapons, and with all due respect to Israel's impressive intelligence abilities, there is no way to uncover every single truck crossing the long border between the countries.
The working premise is that Hezbollah is armed from head to toe: From Scud-D missiles which cover every point in the country, through the accurate Fateh-110 missiles with the heavy warheads, the Yakhont anti-ship cruise missiles which reach a range of up to 300 kilometers (186 miles) and can paralyze the Navy's activity and hit strategic points (according to foreign reports, the IDF attacked such a shipment, but other reports indicated that not all missiles were destroyed), aerial defense systems, and of course a stock of some 130,000 rockets reaching different ranges, with an ability to fire 1,500 rockets a day.
If that were not enough, Hezbollah has gotten hold of short-range Burkan rockets from Syria, which can reach up to 7 kilometers but carry warheads of 100 kilograms to half a ton of explosives, and can cause destructive damage.
It's true that Hezbollah is up to its neck in the fighting in Syria with 5,000 of its men, in Iraq and in Yemen. Its fighters are being buried secretly, with the death toll nearing 1,000, in addition to thousands of injured. For an organization of 15,000 regular fighters, that's quite a lot. Hezbollah's offensive initiatives in the Golan Heights, with Iranian help, have been unsuccessful too.
Nonetheless, the challenge posed by Hezbollah is becoming extremely significant, and any attempt to repress it as if it were a Defense Ministry spin is foolish and could even be dangerous. Hezbollah has gained huge fighting experience in major frameworks as an army for all intents and purposes, in firing rockets and missiles and in operating advanced weapons. Only last weekend we were exposed to a drone base it set up, and it has made a significant leap in this field and received unmanned aircraft from Iran.
If we add that to the many weapons it has received, the defense establishment must raise its preparedness level immediately, in light of the gaps exposed in the reserve system and in the regular units' training, speed up the development of the David's Sling defense system and create a considerable and dramatic threat against Hezbollah which will deter it from entering the next conflict.
If the past weekend's operation was painful for Hezbollah, we should not rule out the possibility of retaliation, on Syria's part either. About three months ago, in the attack on Mount Dov, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah demonstrated that he has red lines too, and there is basically a deterrence battle taking place here.
This requires high-quality intelligence, technological superiority not only in the air but also on the land, and a lot of training. The ability demonstrated against Hamas last summer will not suffice against Hezbollah. It's true that the IDF has also made a considerable quantum leap from the summer of 2006.
If we only compare the number of targets the Air Force had at the time - a little more than 200 - today it has collected more than thousands, and the intelligence ability has been improved in a way that will even surprise Nasrallah.
But it is still our duty to say that there is a ticking bomb waiting for us on the northern border which requires us to think outside the box. If the defense establishment fails to defuse it, quickly, we are in for a battle which we have never experienced before.
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