Iran's Long Game - Dr. Steve Elwart - www.khouse.org
With the latest moves made by Iran in the geopolitical arena, one has to wonder "What are they doing?"
Even while negotiations between Iran and the West were going on over Iran's nuclear enrichment program, Iranian forces seized a Marshall Islands-flagged cargo ship, the Maersk Tigris, while it was traversing the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian forces boarded the ship after firing warning shots across its bridge and diverted it to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas. Iranian officials gave no reason for the seizure. (The ship was later released.)
The Pentagon later revealed that Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy vessels surrounded a U.S.-flagged cargo ship, the Maersk Kensington, last Friday as it was transiting the Strait of Hormuz. No shots were fired, the Iranian vessels broke off contact, and the cargo ship proceeded without further incident.
Both of these actions by Iran forces violated international agreements allowing for unmolested passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
These are not isolated incidents. Since the nuclear talks began in January 2014, Iran has provoked several other incidents against foreign powers.
*Iran has precipitated a civil war in Yemen by arming the Shiite Houthi rebels.
*Iran continues to hold four American citizens prisoner, including Washington Post reporter Jason Rezaian who was charged with espionage and other serious crimes. (Neither the subject of the release nor even the status of these prisoners has been discussed with the Iranians.)
*Iranian leaders remain dedicated to the destruction of the United States and Israel. Last November, Supreme leader Khamenei released a nine-point plan to destroy the state of Israel. On March 21, the day after President Obama's Persian New Year message to the Iranian people, Khamenei said "death to America."
*In February, Iranian naval units destroyed a mock U.S. aircraft carrier as part of a military exercise.
*The Times of Israel reported this week that Iran is spending $35 billion a year to prop up Syrian President Assad while the West is working on a way to oust him.
*Iranian military officials have endorsed a plan for a nuclear electromagnetic pulse explosion on the U.S. power system.
These are just a few of Iran's actions that seem completely contrary to common sense. When two entities are negotiating an agreement, logic would dictate that the nations would at least keep up appearances, at least until the agreement is signed.
The truth is that Iran's actions make perfect sense, at least to them.
It has long been stated in the media that the U.S. is eager to sign an agreement, any agreement with Iran. Given an overeager negotiating partner, Iran can say or do anything and get away with it.
Furthermore, if there is no deal, what does Iran lose?
Sanctions never hurt the regime's rulers. Lifting them would only help them consolidate power over its people. Any nuclear deal combined with an improvement in the commercial and business relations with the West would be a direct threat to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) interests. The Corps now controls most of the economy in the country. The IRGC therefore actually benefits by sanctions; it is the private firms, such as those involved in international commerce, that suffer.
Why would IRGC operatives want to see the playing field made more level by private investment and a competitive economy? Moreover, if a nuclear deal indicated improved relations with the United States, Iranian hardliners might fear seeing their legitimacy erode.
Improved relations with Washington might also raise false hopes among Iran's citizens that the regime may ultimately improve its woeful record on human rights. Today there is only a thin veneer of clerical control over Iranian society; if the social and political reforms that would be possible with a warming of relations with the West, the result could produce a destabilizing political environment, harmful to the interests of the regime.
Another fallacy embraced by many geopolitical analysts is that, as the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei endorsed the negotiations, a legitimate deal is now probable.
The once all-powerful Office of the Supreme Leader no longer calls all the shots. The current Iranian regime resembles a military junta or a security state as much as a theocracy. While the reach of Ayatollah Khamenei, through his network of representatives, still penetrates all dimensions of Iranian society, he does not have the final decision on key security matters. The regime's strategic assets, for instance, such as its ballistic missile programs, are firmly under the control of the IRGC. Also, decisions related to Iran's presence in the region are made by IRGC Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani.
The principal task for the regime is to find a way to back out of the negotiations while avoiding the blame. Iran's actions mentioned above may be setting the stage for Iran's backing away from the talks. Iran has been increasing its demands apparently in the hope that they will either be accepted (which they believe probable), or else rejected like the "poison pills" they are - such as inspectors no longer being allowed on its military sites.
Another way to make the talks no longer palatable for the Obama administration was to create a hostile incident with the United States in the Persian Gulf, hence the incident with the Maersk Tigris.
By these actions, the IRGC Navy appears intent on producing a clash with American naval vessels in the Gulf waters. The IRGC may have decided that Rouhani along with his American-educated Foreign Minister Zarif have reached a tipping point where internal reforms may have gone too far. This independent IRGC initiative is being executed even though a deal would release Iranian monetary assets that would in turn boost the sagging economy.
As mentioned previously, the Iranian military and political spokesmen have also raised their anti-American and anti-Israeli rhetoric of late. The calls for "Death to America" and the destruction of Israel are recent examples of this demagoguery. While the Obama administration explains away these actions as being for "internal consumption," they are reminiscent of an Old Persian saying goes: "They spit in his eye and he calls it rain."
Regime hardline representatives to the majlis [Iranian Parliament] have already been mobilizing members to denounce the talks as detrimental to Iran's national sovereignty. Eighty majlis members signed a petition on May 12, calling upon the regime to suspend the nuclear talks until Washington halts its rhetorical threats against Iran.
Western analysts should be looking for the Iranian regime's media outlets to increase its commentary condemning alleged U.S. deception in the negotiations as a reason to abandon the talks.
One telltale sign of Iran looking for a way out of the talks may come in the form of increased personal attacks on Iran's negotiators to the nuclear talks, and, in an effort to discredit them, challenge their loyalty to the Iranian revolution. They may focus their ire on Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif's. Zarif spent many years of residency and education in the United States and hardliners may question his loyalty to the Iranian Revolution because he has been "corrupted" by his time in the West.
Sadly, one final reason for an Iranian pull-out form the talks may be the impression (rightly gained) that the United States is weak - both politically and economically and may be unwilling to use force against Iran, should the talks fail. (Ironically, it seems as if the only country the United States is taking a hardline with is Israel, which suits Iran just fine.).
Iran might take great pleasure in humiliating President Barack Obama as they did President Jimmy Carter, when they dragged out the 1979 hostage crisis negotiations by running out the clock until his term was over.
They clearly believe that the Obama administration, simply to say it got a deal, is ready to sign anything.
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