Iran marches, Russia rules, Obama watches - By Charles Krauthammer -
http://www.post-gazette.com/opinion/Op-Ed/2015/10/24/Charles-Krauthammer-Iran-marches-Russia-rules-Obama-watches/stories/201510240026
Guess who just popped up in the Kremlin? Bashar al-Assad, Syrian dictator and destroyer, now Vladimir Putin's newest pet.
After four years holed up in Damascus, Assad was summoned to Russia to bend a knee to Mr. Putin, show the world that today Middle East questions get settled not in Washington but in Moscow, and officially bless the Russian-led four-nation takeover of Syria now underway.
Does the bewildered Obama administration finally understand what Russia is up to?
President Barack Obama says Russia is doomed to fail in the Syrian quagmire. But Russia is not trying to reconquer the country for Assad. It's consolidating a rump Syrian state on the roughly 20 percent of the country he now controls, the Alawite areas stretching north and west from Damascus through Latakia and encompassing the Russian naval base at Tartus.
It's a partition. It will leave the Islamic State in control in the interior north and east. Why is this doomed to failure?
Mr. Putin's larger strategy is also obvious. He is not reconstructing the old Soviet empire. That's too large a task. But he is rebuilding and reasserting Russia's ability to project power beyond its borders. Annexing Crimea restores to the motherland full control of the warm water Black Sea port that Russia has coveted since Peter the Great. Shoring up a rump Alawite state secures Russia's naval and air bases in the eastern Mediterranean. Add to that Russia's launching advanced cruise missiles from warships in the Caspian Sea to strike Syrian rebels 900 miles away and you have the most impressive display of Russian military reach since the Cold War.
For Mr. Obama, of course, these things don't matter. "In today's world," he told the United Nations last month, "the measure of strength is no longer defined by the control of territory." That he clearly believes this fantasy was demonstrated by his total abandonment of Iraq, forfeiting U.S. bases from which we could have projected power in the region (most notably preventing, through control of Iraqi airspace, the Iranian rearming and reinforcement of Assad's weakening regime).
While Mr. Obama counts on the arc of the moral universe bending toward justice, Mr. Putin acts. As soon as the ink was dry on the Iran nuclear deal, Iran's Qasem Soleimani flew to Moscow (a sanctions violation that we blithely ignored) to plan the multinational Syria campaign he is now directing. His Shiite expeditionary force is composed of Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Iraqi Shiite militias and Lebanese Hezbollah fighting under the cover of Russian airpower.
They are pounding non-Islamic State rebels, many equipped, trained and allegedly supported by the United States and Mr. Obama's vaunted 60-nation coalition. What a comfort to be pulverized by 60 to 90 Russian airstrikes each day but to know that Belgium is with you.
The immediate Russian objective is to retake Aleppo, the eastern part of which is the rebels' last remaining urban stronghold.
Russia is not fighting the Islamic State. On the contrary. Its attacks on the anti-government, anti-Islamic State rebels have allowed the Islamic State to expand, capturing rebel-held villages north of Aleppo, even as the Shiite expeditionary force approaches from the south.
Apart from the wreckage to Mr. Obama's dreams of a "reset" with Russia, think of how these advances mock Mr. Obama's dreams for Iran, namely that the nuclear deal would moderate Iranian behavior.
What has happened since the signing of the deal in July? Iran convicts an American journalist of espionage, contemptuously refusing to offer even the most minimal humanitarian gesture. Iran brazenly tests a nuclear-capable ballistic missile that our own U.N. ambassador said violates Security Council resolutions. And now Iran's most notorious Revolutionary Guard commander takes control of a pan-Shiite army trying to decimate our remaining allies in the Syrian civil war.
Mr. Obama's response to all this? Nothing. He has washed his hands of the region, still the center of world oil production and trade, and still the world's most volatile region, seething with virulent jihadism ready for export. When you call something a quagmire you have told the world that you're out and staying out. Russia and Iran will have their way.
"60 Minutes" asked Mr. Obama: Are you concerned about yielding leadership to Russia? Mr. Obama responded dismissively: Propping up a weak ally is not leadership. I'm leading the world on climate change.
Upon hearing that, anyone in any conflict anywhere who has put his trust in the United States should start packing his bags for Germany.
Russia-Iran alliance tactical, not strategic - http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Analysis-Russia-Iranian-alliance-tactical-not-strategic-430057
Russia seeks to solidify Assad's regime in an Alawite mini-state in the face of a Sunni onslaught funded by Gulf States.
Christian Russia and Shi'ite Iran's military alliance to help keep Syrian President Bashar Assad in power is fraught with underlying tension, which could be exploited by Israel or the US.
Iran's revolutionary expansionist agenda and its targeting of Israel is at odds with Russia's long-term goals in the region.
Russia seeks to solidify Assad's regime in an Alawite mini-state in the face of a Sunni onslaught funded by Gulf states.
Russia President Vladimir Putin's military buildup and activity in Syria caught the West off guard just as he did in other hot spots, such as Ukraine and Georgia. Putin is also filling in the vacuum of a retreating US in the region.
Iranian and other allied Shi'ite militia forces including Hezbollah, were not able to prop up Assad's military alone and needed Russia's help.
This leaves Russia as the most powerful player in Syria, and because its strategic interests do not entirely coincide with those of Iran's Shi'ite axis, Israel and the US could seek some kind of deal or accommodation with Russia that would limit the Shi'ite axis.
Harold Rhode, a senior fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute and a former adviser at the Pentagon, told The Jerusalem Post on Sunday that Russian and Iranian long-term interests in Syria, and elsewhere, diverge.
"Russia does not trust Iran," he said.
"Russia doesn't want Iran to be an equal partner in Syria. Russia wants to rule the roost."
Iran is trying to turn Alawites into Shi'ites, asserted Rhode, adding that Russia looks on this negatively.
For Russia, he said, the more members of the anti-Sunni coalition the better. "This is Russia's traditional approach - divide and conquer."
Foreign correspondent Yaroslav Trofimov said in The Wall Street Journal over the weekend that tensions could arise between Russia and Iran "if the fighting doesn't go as planned in the coming months - and later if peace talks on how to divide the spoils of war become serious."
Col. (Res.) Dr. Eran Lerman, a senior research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University, said in a recent report, "For Moscow, Assad is a client to be saved from the gallows.
For Iran, Syria is a key stepping-stone on the road to destabilizing Jordan; and, as Ayatollah Khamenei has ordered, to 'turning the West Bank into the next Gaza.'" In his report, Lerman argued that Russia's mission implies that it "has actually come to terms with the reality of a country irretrievably carved into separate domains."
"Putin's concern for Assad's survival could give Israel some policy leverage, if Israel astutely navigates its way through the situation," said Lerman, adding, "This means that Israel should not be tempted to support Saudi-led efforts to unseat Assad or otherwise bring about a decisive outcome in Syria's civil war."
Rhode says "Russia does not want a powerful Iran running an alliance in the Middle East near Russia's borders."
Iran pushes the "anti-non-Muslim agenda" worldwide, explained Rhode. For example, Iran is active in Russia as well, stirring up anti-Russian anti-non-Muslim sentiment, he said.
In a telling anecdote, in 1989, the Islamic Republic's founder, Ayatollah Khomeini, sent a letter to former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev inviting him to convert to Islam.
Russia prefers Muslims to be occupied fighting each other instead of turning their angst against non-Muslim Russia, continued Rhode.
"One third of Moscow is Muslim," and Putin has told various foreign leaders that he sees himself as the protector of Russian culture, he said.
Russia and Iran "are tactical allies, not strategic partners."
Russia Readying Missile System for Iran in $800 Million Deal - https://www.breakingisraelnews.com/52406/russia-readying-missile-system-iran-800-million-deal-middle-east/#IvTowo2y5WTh6D5l.97
"...when the king's commandment and his decree drew near to be put in execution, in the day that the enemies of the Jews hoped to have rule over them; whereas it was turned to the contrary, that the Jews had rule over them that hated them." Esther (9 :1)
Russia is working on modernizing a S-300 missile defense system for Iran, Rosoboronexport General Director Anatoly Isaikin told journalists Tuesday, according to Sputnik. Rosoboronexport is the Russian state's intermediary agency for exports/imports of defense-related and dual use products, technologies and services.
The S-300 is a series of initially Soviet and later Russian long range surface-to-air missile systems, first deployed by the Soviet Union in 1979, designed for the air defense of large industrial and administrative facilities, military bases, and control of airspace against enemy strike aircraft. Subsequent variations were developed to intercept ballistic missiles.
Once the delivery is made, Iran will presumably retract its $4 billion suit against Russia for the S-300 missile systems that were not delivered earlier. It was rumored at the time that Russia agreed to withhold the delivery as part of a natural gas distribution deal with Israel. "We have agreed with Iran on retracting the suit," Isaikin said.
"The completion of the contract on the S-300 missile system for Iran was suspended and we've been given the order to renew work and as the executors, we are doing this, but much time has gone by and the S-300 system has changed so we're working on the modernization of the system," Isaikin said.
Assad's Autumn Offensive - By Jonathan Spyer - https://www.breakingisraelnews.com/52377/assads-sutumn-offensive-opinion/#k1IWb3auJz47GfIB.97
Something major is brewing in northwest Syria.
The Assad regime has been back on the attack in recent days. The fighting is focused on the area of Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city. Russian air strikes and regime artillery are backing up the troops of President Bashar Assad's army as they push back the rebels in northeastern Aleppo province.
Meanwhile, as regime forces pressure the rebels of Jabhat al-Shamiyya (Levant Front) from the south, seeking to encircle Aleppo city, Islamic State fighters are attacking them from the north.
The fighting in Aleppo province comes alongside a renewed regime push forward in northern Hama province.
In Aleppo, the initial goal of the regime forces is the long-standing one of encircling Aleppo city. The regime then intends to push on to link up with the two besieged Shi'a villages of Nubl and Zahra. If this is achieved, the ability of the rebels to supply their beleaguered forces in Aleppo city from across the border in Turkey via the route south from Azaz will be terminated.
The regime advances represent a reversal of the trend in the war since the beginning of 2015.
The current fighting, however, appears to be merely a prelude to an upcoming, much larger offensive.
Energetic preparations are under way in the regime stronghold in Latakia province.
The intention of this offensive will be to end the long and bloody back-andforth in northwest Syria by finally destroying the rebel holdings in Idlib and Aleppo provinces. If this goal is achieved, the area of regime control will then border Islamic State at its western edge.
Russian air power is set to play a key role in the fighting in northwest Syria. Largescale bombing has already taken place in Idlib and Hama provinces.
The key issue in the coming battles, however, will be the ground component.
Assad's main disadvantage throughout the civil war has been the absence of a sufficient number of men willing to engage on his behalf.
It was this shortage of men that led to the withdrawal from much of northern Syria in 2012, which he and his allies are now trying to reverse. The Syrian dictator proved unable to replenish the losses from among his own people. And, in contrast to his Sunni Islamist opponents, there was no pool of ideologically motivated volunteers from the region and beyond it interested in coming to serve under his banner.
But the long-standing regime alliance with the Islamic Republic of Iran has played the key role in preventing this key deficiency from turning to disaster. Iran has throughout proved willing to mobilize its key regional proxies, bringing in fighters from Hezbollah and from the Shi'a militias of Iraq to fight on the ground for the regime. In addition, the Iranians have trained new formations of Alawi paramilitary forces for Assad, giving him a ground component more reliable than the largely Sunni conscript army.
It appears that Iranian support will be crucial in the upcoming offensive as well.
According to a report in the Kuwaiti Al-Rai newspaper, 2,000 members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps have arrived in Latakia, along with 2,000 Iraqi Shi'a militiamen, 2,000 Afghan Shi'a fighters and 1,000 men from the elite forces of Hezbollah.
These men are set to be deployed in the fighting in Idlib and Aleppo in the period ahead.
Will Assad's offensive succeed? This depends on how success is defined. The rebels are not helpless. The major forces of Jaish al-Fatah (Army of Conquest) have yet to fully engage. And where engagements have taken place, there have already been some setbacks for the regime. A number of armored vehicles were lost to the rebels' BGM-71 Tow antitank missile systems in the fighting in north Hama. Supplies are still coming in for the rebels from across the Turkish border. Qatari, Saudi and Turkish support is still there. The regime/Russian/ Iranian side will face a determined and well-motivated foe.
Russian and Iranian assistance nevertheless looks likely to succeed in ending the immediate threat to the integrity of the regime enclave in Latakia. It is also possible that the gains made earlier this year by the rebels in Idlib and Aleppo provinces will be reversed. Perhaps the strategic town of Jisr al-Shughur and Idlib city and even Aleppo city will return to regime hands.
But the fundamental problem for the regime, which has beset it since the beginning of the war, will then resurface: how to hold these areas, where the Sunni Arab population absolutely rejects the regime.
The Assad regime may have surprised some with its vigor, but after four years of bloody civil war, the rebellion, too, shows no signs of running out of steam - or out of fighters.
So unless the Iranians are willing to maintain a more or less permanent occupation of northern Syria, using proxies or even their own men, in the face of ongoing Sunni jihadi resistance, it is difficult to see how Assad can hold, in the long term, what he may conquer in the period immediately ahead.
Still, as of now, the IRGC men and the Iraqis are arriving at the Basel Assad International Airport in Latakia. Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani is in the country, coordinating preparations on the ground. Hezbollah reinforcements are crossing in from Lebanon. Assad's autumn offensive appears to be about to begin.
Islamic invasion of US and Europe - Bill Wilson - www.dailyjot.com
The score-plus of wars in the Middle East have done something that the Ottoman Empire, the last Islamic caliphate, was unable to do--invade Europe and the US without firing a shot. Hundreds of thousands of Islamists are entering Europe and the US as war refugees, a resettlement directed by the pro-Islamic United Nations. This invasion by Islam contains peaceful families that want to get out of war torn areas as well as militant terrorists embedded in the population and disguised as refugees. Neither European nor US officials can separate the two. But one thing for certain: these are not folks who are going to embrace the US or European culture and assimilate. They are death-cult colonists.
Jeremiah 51:14 speaks of the Lord's judgment of Babylon for its enthusiastic destruction of His people, saying: "Surely I will fill thee with men, as with locusts; and they shall raise a battle cry against thee." The US and Europe are not Babylon, but both match some of the descriptors written by Jeremiah of sinning against the Lord, the habitation of justice. Both the US and Europe have advocated in the strongest terms the division of the land of Israel and have accepted the lies of Islam, those who wish to not only occupy the land of Israel, but to destroy the Jewish people. There are consequences to the actions of leaders, and Europe and the US have been cause to the current invasion. The West is being resettled.
Where Islam goes, crime, violence and destruction follow like that of the locust. WorldNetDaily reports that Austrians are arming themselves at record rates to defend themselves from anticipated attacks by Muslim invaders, but obtaining a firearm and ammunition in Germany, Britain, Denmark and the Netherlands is practically impossible for the average citizen. And self-defense is not even a valid reason to purchase a gun in these countries. The New York Times reports that Australia's former prime minister Tony Abbott warned in London that the continent risked "fundamentally weakening itself" through "misguided altruism" as large numbers of asylum seekers arrive, and that these countries are "now in peril."
The legal immigrants who built America came to the US for opportunity and freedom. They assimilated as Americans, the ideal of what being American means. They adopted our language, our work ethic, our customs, our spirit of exceptionalism, our laws and our dreams of making the world a better place. The vast majority of those coming in today have no intention of becoming "American." They have come to colonize and impose. This presents a quandary for the Church. Exodus 22:21 says, "You shall neither vex a stranger, nor oppress him." Also, Numbers 15:16 says, "One law and one ordinance shall be for you and the stranger that sojourns with you." These "immigrants," legal or illegal, are here. We need to deal with it. There are laws that need to be followed and the gospel needs to be shared. With the peril there is opportunity.
Iran to send 'fleet of warships' to the Atlantic Ocean - http://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-to-send-fleet-of-warships-to-the-atlantic-ocean/
Tehran's navy chief says vessels will 'soon berth' at Atlantic ports
Iran intends to dispatch "a fleet of warships" to the Atlantic Ocean shortly, the semi-state Fars news agency reported Thursday, quoting the regime's navy chief.
"Our warships will soon berth at ports in the Atlantic Ocean," Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari promised at a ceremony on Wednesday marking the return to port of Iranian warships that Fars said had taken part in joint drills with the Russian navy.
Sayyari said the Iranian vessels had been in the Caspian Sea and at the Russian port of Astrakhan. "The presence of Iranian warships in international ports shows the Iranian Navy's prowess," Fars quoted him saying.
Sayyari made a similar pledge to deploy warships in the Atlantic in early 2014. At the time, Iran promised to send its fleet close to American maritime borders as a counter to the US navy's presence in the Gulf. But in April, the navy chief said the move had been canceled "due to a change in schedule."
The US-Iran relationship remains tense and friction-filled, despite the US-led world powers' deal with Iran, sealed in July, on curbing its nuclear program.
Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei has repeatedly rejected any future talks on other issues, and ruled out normalization with the United States.
The former Iranian president Hashemi Rafsanjani was reported to have admitted this week that the country's nuclear program was started with the intent of building a nuclear weapon, with the express consent and participation of Khamenei. "Our basic doctrine was peaceful usage of the nuclear technology although we never abandoned the idea that if one day we are threatened and it is imperative, we would have the capability for going the other path [to nuclear weapon] as well," Rafsanjani reportedly said.
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