What in the World Is Happening? #WorldWarIII? - By Anugrah Kumar -
http://www.christianpost.com/news/megachurch-pastor-greg-laurie-sermon-isis-iran-russia-worldwariii-151851/
From increasing attacks by the Islamic State terror group to a new alliance between Iran and Russia, everything is happening according to God's plan, California megachurch pastor Greg Laurie said in a message, sharing what believers should be doing as they await Christ's return.
"It's safe to assume that we are living in the Last Days," Pastor Laurie of the Harvest Christian Fellowship told the congregation in his message, titled "What in the World Is Happening? #WorldwarIII?"
The hashtag WorldwarIII was trending recently as people discussed the possibility of a World War III.
It's a world of upheaval, violence, crime and terrorism, he said, underlining that it has come to the United States, referring to last week's massacre in San Bernardino in Southern California that left 14 people dead and 21 wounded.
Laurie said Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, has recruited more than 19,000 foreigners in the last nine months alone, according to experts. And they have done this by using social media. The Digital Age is helping terrorist radicalize youth around the world.
ISIS is also making chemical weapons, as they seek to create a global caliphate, he explained.
Iran, the Shia-majority country, is more dangerous than the Sunni terror group ISIS, Laurie said. "Iran is taking a longer view to achieve their objectives, and thus are developing nuclear weapons." They have stated clearly that they want to annihilate Israel and the United States.
This is happening because people are living in sin, and not because God is not in control, Laurie stressed. One day all will be well, but that day is not here yet, he added. "But everything is going according to God's plan."
Though a tiny nation, "Israel is the eye of the hurricane of the great events of the Last Days," the pastor told the congregation, reminding them that "God has promised a blessing to those that bless Israel and a curse to those that don't."
In the recent months, Iran and Russia have come together, which was predicted 2,500 years ago in Ezekiel 37 and 38, Laurie added. This has happened in the name of defending the embattled Syrian regime.
The real question is how we should live as Christians in the times like these, Pastor Laurie said.
He read 1Thessalonians 5:2-8, which states, "For you yourselves know perfectly that the day of the Lord so comes as a thief in the night. For when they say, "Peace and safety!" then sudden destruction comes upon them, as labor pains upon a pregnant woman. And they shall not escape. But you, brethren, are not in darkness, so that this Day should overtake you as a thief. You are all sons of light and sons of the day. We are not of the night nor of darkness. Therefore let us not sleep, as others do, but let us watch and be sober. For those who sleep, sleep at night, and those who get drunk are drunk at night. But let us who are of the day be sober, putting on the breastplate of faith and love, and as a helmet the hope of salvation."
This passage suggests at least three things Christians need to be doing, Laurie said.
One, wake up. When we are asleep, we are not conscious of events around us, he explained.
A big meal makes us sleepy, and similarly, some spiritually well-fed Christians are sometimes the first to get sleepy, that is when they acquire knowledge after knowledge without doing anything or being the fishers of men, he said.
"Wake up and be ready for the Lord's return," Laurie urged, saying "it's joyful, happy and good" to live in anticipation of Jesus' return.
Two, sober up, the pastor said. Don't get drunk or be under the influence of drugs, he said.
To be sober means having clear thinking, to be clear-minded, he explained. You can also be under the influence of the "cares of this life," he warned, adding that these may not be sinful things, and yet we can be obsessed with them.
Three, we are to suit up, like a soldier, Pastor Laurie said, for we're in a battle. "The moment you put your faith in Jesus Christ, you enter into a spiritual battle."
You can either be victorious or lose in a battle, he said. We have no other option. "You're a follower of Jesus Christ; there's work to be done. There's people to be won."
Laurie concluded the sermon by saying that every nation, including America, has a beginning, middle and end. "America is not in the end times scenario of Revelation. You can find Israel, you can find Iran, possibly, you can find Russia. Perhaps even China. There's no mention of the greatest super power on the face of the earth at the moment, the United States of America. Where are we?" he asked.
Pastor Laurie explained that could be one of the three possible reasons. Maybe, we're just destroyed in a war that we lose, he said. Or, maybe, we collapse economically and militarily and morally, he added. Or maybe, we have a spiritual awakening. "We need to pray for revival," he said.
'IDF training for possibility of an ISIS strike from Sinai or Golan Heights' - http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/The-IDF-is-training-for-the-possibility-of-an-IS-strike-from-Sinai-or-Ramat-Hagolan-436547
"It would be very hard to organize and carry out an attack on the scale of Paris, in Israel. Not impossible, but hard," former national security adviser says.
Yaakov Amidror, former national security adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, addressed concerns regarding the Islamic State threat on Israel in an interview with Israeli radio channel 103 FM on Monday.
"Let's break down the threat into three possible scenarios," said Amidror, "There's no need for hysteria," he said.
He said that the description of an ISIS attack on Israel as imminent is exaggerated.
"Islamic State can strike Israel in one of three ways," Amidror said.
The first would be through the establishment of an IS affiliated terror cell within the Arab Israeli community. "This cell would have access to enough weapons, intelligence, and explosive materials to carry out a Paris-style attack in Israel," Amidror said.
The Shin Bet would be able to handle this threat, according to Amidror. "Up until now the Shin Bet's coverage of Arab Israelis has not been bad," he said. Only two of the assailants in the recent wave of terror that struck Israel were Arab-Israelis.
This first possibility is not of utmost concern, Amidror said. "It would be very hard to organize and carry out an attack on the scale of Paris, in Israel. Not impossible, but hard."
The second scenario in which an IS terror cell could strike Israel, the former security adviser said, is through the creation of cells among Palestinians in the West Bank or east Jerusalem. "It would be easier for them to organize in those communities," he said. "Those types of environments foster a less-tolerant view of Israel," he said. "That's where Hamas terror cells arose in the past, so we need to take into consideration the possibility that a similar IS terror cell could arise in the future."
Amidror assured that the Shin Bet was properly monitoring this possible scenario as well.
The third way that IS could exert its influence into Israel, according to Amidror, is through cross-country borders. "IS could come from across the border," he said. "The IDF drilled for this scenario recently."
Amidror said that IS is exerting influence in Egypt - training heavily in Sinai - and forming cells in the Golan Heights.
"There could always be a surprise cross-border attack, but the IDF is prepared for this possibility," Amidror assured.
Turkey is 'setting up cards' for a dangerous new game with Russia - and the winner could be ISIS - Natasha Bertrand - http://www.businessinsider.com/turkish-troops-in-iraq-may-provoke-russia-2015-12
Turkey's decision to deploy a limited number of troops to a military base near the ISIS stronghold of Mosul, Iraq, last weekend was quickly condemned by leading Iraqi officials who called the incursion a violation of Iraqi sovereignty.
Iran-backed Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi led calls for Turkish troops to be withdrawn immediately, which were echoed by Iraq's main Shia political parties - some of whom called for Iraq to launch airstrikes on Turkish soil if Ankara did not comply.
Among Turkey's harshest critics was Russia, who called the move "illegal" and asked the UN Security Council to hold a meeting on Turkish military action in both Iraq and Syria on Tuesday.
Turkey and Russia are in the midst of a showdown over Turkey's decision to down a Russian warplane that allegedly violated its airspace two weeks ago. But that is only one reason why Russia's condemnation of the Turkish incursion into Iraq was to be expected.
Russia has been sharing "security and intelligence" information about the Islamic State (also known as ISIS or ISIL) with Iraq since September - when Russian, Syrian, and Iranian military advisers began building a coordination cell in Baghdad in an effort to bolster the Iranian-backed Shia militias fighting ISIS in northern Iraq.
With Iran's implicit blessing, Russian president Vladimir Putin has therefore taken on a greater role in Iraq - a role that comes with certain political and military expectations.
"The presence of the Turkish troops near Mosul certainly further complicates the situation between Russia and Turkey," Boris Zilberman, a Russia expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Business Insider in an email.
"Not long ago there was buzz about Russia potentially deploying forces to Iraq. In light of current developments, the possibility of such a deployment may gain steam once again."
He added: "If Turkey continues the deployment in Iraq, I would expect more bellicose language from Iraqi, Russian, and Iranian leaders. This only continues to raise the tensions and stakes in the regional conflict."
'Setting up cards' for a dangerous new game
Iraq has not taken kindly to overtures by members of NATO to deploy troops on Iraqi soil - even if it is in the name of fighting ISIS in the north.
Earlier this month, the US announced that it intended to send a team of around 200 special-operations forces to conduct raids against ISIS militants operating in northern and western Iraq.
Iraq's ruling alliance and powerful Shi'ite militias responded in force. A lawmaker from the Iran-backed Badr Organization announced that "if Abadi makes a unilateral decision to approve the deployment of American special forces, we will question him in parliament."
He added: "He is aware that a questioning could lead to a vote of no confidence."
The amount of influence Iran and its proxy militias wield over Iraqi politics cannot be understated, and its opposition to foreign intervention in Iraq is in line with Tehran's overarching objective to roll back US influence and expand its own power in the region.
Russia, moreover, is an important Iranian ally. It was Qassem Soleimani, leader of the powerful Quds Force brigade - the military wing of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp. - who traveled to Moscow in late July to reportedly ask Russia for help in bolstering the Iranian proxy militias in Syria fighting on behalf of the regime.
To that end, Abadi "could face further pressure to accept Russian assistance, an outcome that has become popular among Iranian proxies and the Sadrist Trend since Russia began launching airstrikes in Syria on September 30," the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted on its blog last weekend.
Indeed, that "a Russian force" could intervene to expel Turkish troops has already been floated by at least one Iraqi politician, according to the ISW.
It is unlikely, however, that Russia would risk a military confrontation with NATO to expel 100 Turkish troops from Iraqi soil.
"I don't think Russia will get directly involved in trying to expel the troops," Paul Stronski, a senior associate in the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told Business Insider in an email. "I think Russia is stretched thin - but they mightn't object to Iran doing it."
In any case, Turkey is keenly aware of the power that comes from being a member of NATO, which may explain its boldness in deploying troops to a Russian sphere of influence in the midst of a showdown with Moscow.
"That Turkey sent military reinforcement to the temporary training camp in Bashiqa, effectively turning Bashiqa into a permanent military base, can be considered Turkey's answer" to Russia's aggressive military build-up along the Turkish-Syrian border, Metin Gurcan, a Turkish military expert who served as an adviser in Afghanistan between 2002-2008, told Business Insider.
He added: "It looks like Turkey is setting up cards for a new game by changing the space of its crisis with Russia."
A Sunni 'boutique power center'
Turkey's desire to maintain a military presence in Iraq is also fundamentally motivated by Ankara's desire to "balance the increasing Russia-led Baghdad-Tehran-Damascus alliance that is Shia in nature," Gurcan said.
Turkey, whose citizens are overwhelmingly Sunni Muslims, has "been trying to form a sort of Sunni 'boutique power center' using three specific entities: the Kurdistan Regional Government [KRG] in northern Iraq, Iraqi Sunni Arabs near Mosul, and Syrian Sunni Arabs," Gurcan said.
Wladimir van Wilgenburg, a freelance journalist and expert on Kurdish affairs embedded in Iraqi Kurdistan, agreed that the desire to bolster Sunni Arabs in the region was an important motivation for Turkey's incursion into Iraq.
"Turkey just wants to empower Sunni Arabs and Kurdish Peshmerga forces to counterbalance Iran and Baghdad," van Wilgenburg told Business Insider on Monday. "Turkey used to have a lot of influence among Sunni Arabs in Mosul, but they lost everything when ISIS took over all the Sunni Arab areas. That's why they are trying to work to empower Sunni Arab police forces around Mosul."
He added: "Iraqi Prime Minister Abadi is under pressure from [former Prime Minister] Nouri al-Maliki and Iranian-backed Shia militias, that's why they are making a lot of noise."
Merve Tahiroglu, a Turkey expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, argued that Turkey was using the Peshmerga less as a counterweight to Iran than to its longtime enemy, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is headquartered in northern Iraq.
"This could be Turkey's way of showing the anti-IS coalition that it is helping the fight by working with the Kurds - just the group of Kurds it prefers," Tahiroglu said in an email.
In any case, Turkey seemed surprise by the uproar, and alleged that it had sent the troops at the request of the Iraqi defense minister to train Iraqi soldiers and the Kurdish peshmerga to fight the Islamic State.
Still, Ankara has refused to withdraw its troops - and shows no signs of doing so anytime soon.
"Turkey's moves in Iraq are, at least in part, a message to Russia that it too can act unilaterally or boldly in the region - but sometimes bold is not terribly helpful in defusing such a difficult diplomatic issue," Stronski said, noting that the incursion "adds one more layer of complication to the entire Russia-Turkey showdown and further muddles the fight against ISIS."
Gurcan largely agreed.
"For the first time, Turkey - which was once a giant talking too much but unable to bite - is trying to create de facto realities on the ground," he said.
"This is a new thing for Russia, so we'll see how Moscow responds - and how the US manages the emergence of the new power center Turkey is seemingly trying to create. But at the end of the day, the winner is ISIS."
The Syrian Cauldron - A View from Israel - by Michael Herzog -
http://fathomjournal.org/the-syrian-cauldron-a-view-from-israel/
As Parliament is set to debate joining the coalition against ISIS in Syria, BICOM Senior Visiting Fellow Brig. Gen. (res.) Michael Herzog assesses Western options. He argues that while air strikes can contain ISIS, only troops on the ground can defeat it. Only a clear show of determination by Western powers can successfully recruit local forces to an anti ISIS coalition, so the West should ally with Syrian Kurds and select Sunni tribes in return for autonomy in a 'day after' political solution. Safe zones in Syria should be created and maintained to mitigate the human tragedy while the West also needs a comprehensive strategy to counter ISIS's ideological appeal. While focusing on ISIS, Western policy makers should try and prevent the empowerment of the Iranian-led axis.
For Israel: ISIS is bad, but the Iranian axis the graver threat
Syria has become the epicenter of global jihad, regional turmoil and a humanitarian catastrophe, emitting waves of terrorism, instability and refugees far beyond the Middle East. What started as a civilian protest five years ago has turned into a bitter sectarian and proxy battle-ground, drawing in thousands of young Muslims - Sunnis and Shiites - to rival camps, as well as external forces competing to shape the end-game.
Whilst the war in Syria sends destabilizing shock-waves to neighboring countries, Israel has been the least affected, successfully staying away from a war in which it does not have a direct stake. But whilst it is neither part of the war nor the diplomatic efforts, Israel remains an important stakeholder in the future of its northern neighbor.
Looking at Syria and Iraq, Israelis naturally share Western concerns over the so-called Islamic State (ISIS), and its capacity to project both terrorism and its ideological message around the region and the world. ISIS represents not only a radical anti-Western ideology but is also virulently and explicitly anti-Semitic. It already has affiliates operating along Israel's borders with Egypt and Syria and it poses a direct threat to key Western ally Jordan - an essential anchor of stability and moderation, with which Israel shares its longest border.
While ISIS is under constant military pressure, it is far from being defeated. Moreover, according to Western intelligence, the recent attack in Paris indicates a shift in its mode of operation from inspiring and inciting jihadi terror attacks in the West to actually guiding them. This also raises concerns that a competition of sorts may now develop between ISIS and Al-Qaeda in orchestrating attacks against the West.
However, at this point ISIS is not focused on Israel, and is therefore not considered by Israelis to be a direct and immediate strategic threat to them. From an Israeli perspective, the gravest strategic threat still comes from the Iranian-led axis.
Iran is a regional power deeply hostile to Israel, harboring hegemonic and nuclear ambitions and commanding the region's most heavily armed sub-state actor, Hezbollah, with over 100,000 rockets aimed at Israel. Assad's remaining territory in Syria serves as a vital conduit for feeding, replenishing and upgrading Hezbollah's huge rocket arsenal. Iran also supports terror groups in Gaza, seeks to establish terror infrastructure in the West Bank, supports Hezbollah's international terror network and activities and launches continuous cyber-attacks against Israel. That is why Israelis judge developments in Syria first and foremost in the broader context of the danger posed by this axis.
Israeli concerns were further exacerbated by the nuclear deal between Iran and the international community, which Israelis perceive as boosting Iran in the context of a region in meltdown. Indeed, hopes that the deal might improve the situation in Syria have proven unrealistic. It is highly likely that the Iranian nuclear deal that answered a paramount Russian interest as well as the perception in Moscow of American weakness cleared the way in Russia's mind to deploy militarily in Syria in order to save Assad and boost its own standing. Consequently, the emboldened Iran-Assad axis has escalated its military operations under Russia's air umbrella, focusing on anti-Assad elements rather than on ISIS. In response, Gulf states are ramping up their support to Sunni rebel groups. With more fuel on the fire come more refugees.
But the negative fallout of the nuclear deal goes further. Since the deal was finalized, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has publicly slammed the door on Western hopes to effectively expand cooperation and ordered a ban on imports from the US. Iran test-fired a new ballistic missile in contravention of a UN Security Council resolution and announced it will increase its defense budget by over 30 per cent. Tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia have risen to new heights, including, at the end of September, the Saudi interception of an Iranian ship laden with missiles allegedly bound for Iran's proxies in Yemen. For now, President Obama's expressed hope that the nuclear deal will enable regional 'equilibrium,' seems a distant dream.
Why Israel is not banking on a diplomatic solution in Syria
Whilst the major external powers finally set a framework for negotiations, any diplomatic outcome will primarily be dictated by developments on the ground and these do not bode well for any solution. Syria is deeply fragmented and the war intensifying. The major combatants within Syria, for whom this is a life-and-death struggle, are neither strong enough to overwhelm the other nor weak enough to be eliminated. Meanwhile, external powers negotiating a diplomatic solution hold to deeply conflicting visions and goals. They all agree in principle that ISIS must be defeated, yet are sharply divided on how this can be achieved, who should fill the void, who might represent the opposition, and whether Assad is part of the problem or the solution. On the ground, two parallel coalitions are confronting ISIS - one led by the US with increasing European involvement and the other led by Russia - but with the US and its allies prioritizing the targeting of ISIS, and Russia prioritizing protecting Assad. The potential for direct conflict between them was dramatically illustrated by the downing of a Russian plane by Turkey, which further complicates the chances of joining forces.
The current diplomatic efforts are predicated on three key assumptions, all of which are flawed. First, that there is a visible horizon for putting Syria back together as one functioning political entity. Second, that a diplomatic solution is a pre-requisite to defeating ISIS. Third, that the major stakeholders in Syria can currently agree on a common goal and implement it.
In reality, given the bleak picture described above, it is hard to see Syria reunified as one functioning political entity in the foreseeable future. Defeating ISIS is a pre-requisite to a solution in Syria, (if there is one to be had), rather than the other way round, while the likelihood of currently securing an agreement that will be implemented by the stakeholders is very slim. Furthermore, while negotiating on how to extinguish the fire, some of the players, especially Russia, Iran and the Gulf states, are fanning the flames since they understand that strength and position on the ground will dictate the political outcome.
The priorities that determine Israeli action
As the Syrian cauldron continues to boil over, Israel's own actions will remain focused on preventing developments which directly threaten its security. First, there is the challenge of hostile actors positioning themselves in the Golan Heights along Israel's border with Syria and turning it into an active front with established military infrastructure and cross-border attacks. Al-Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra and some ISIS-affiliated elements such as the Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade are already there, though currently focused on fighting Assad's forces and their allies. Meanwhile the Iran-led axis has been striving, so far with little success, to establish itself along both the Israeli and Jordanian borders. Should Hezbollah and other Iran-backed forces succeed, their deployment could constitute a serious security threat to Israel and cause direct friction between Israel and Iran. Indeed, in January 2015, an Iranian general and several Hezbollah operatives found their death while touring the Syria-Israel border in an operational mission. Media reports attributed the attack to Israel.
No less challenging for Israel is the shipment through Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon of strategic weapons such as sophisticated Russian ground-to-air SA17/22 missiles, accurate Iranian Fateh-110 rockets or the Russian SS-N-26 anti-ship Yakhont Cruise missiles, which could all serve as game changers in a future conflict with Israel. In recent years Israel has reportedly carried out numerous airstrikes against such shipments. Russia's air campaign in Syria, based on the deployment of combat planes, radars and air defense systems, now adds concerns over Israel's freedom of action. While both Israel and Russia seek to prevent any clash and recently reached agreement on rules and mechanisms for de-confliction, the potential for inadvertent friction still exists in situations in which the Israeli air force takes action in Syria to protect Israeli interests or if Russia flies close to Israel's border or into Israeli territory.
Policy recommendations: focusing on a realistic strategy to defeat ISIS
Western policy makers should initially focus on addressing the main threats emerging from the Syrian situation, rather than on the unrealistic hope of a diplomatic arrangement to piece the country back together.
While the biggest challenge for the West in this situation is ISIS, Western strategy to counter it has essentially boiled down to containing (as was recently acknowledged by President Obama) and slowly degrading its capabilities. This strategy, based on a limited campaign of air strikes coupled with some pressure by local forces, may have weakened ISIS but has failed to contain it - as evidenced by the recent terror attacks in Paris, Sinai, Beirut, Tunisia and elsewhere - nor stop the flow of new recruits to its ranks. In light of this, it is time for the West - the US and its major European allies - to adopt a different strategy towards ISIS directed at defeating it on the ground, based on an international coalition acting with and in support of Kurdish and select Sunni tribal forces.
ISIS's ability to govern territory in Syria and Iraq affords it a launching pad for its destructive campaign in the region and the West and constitutes a magnet to young, radicalized Muslims from across the globe. Surviving attacks from major global powers and hitting back feeds a myth of invincibility, glorifies the 'Caliphate' and adds to its attraction and prestige. The continued existence of this territorial center of extremism at the heart of the Middle East promises to further destabilize the region and spark a growing wave of terror in the West.
Defeating ISIS within a reasonable timeframe requires a ground campaign, yet there are few candidates willing, capable and worthy to implement it. The West is understandably war-weary and wary of boots on the ground, whilst Russia is unlikely to invest in a strategic ground campaign. Almost all local and regional forces are also poor candidates for various reasons. Some, like most local Sunni tribes, the 'Free Syrian Army' and the Iraqi military are either too weak, fragmented or reluctant. Other more capable state actors have competing priorities: Turkey prioritizes getting rid of Assad and denying Kurdish aspirations; Saudi resources and attention are diverted to its war in Yemen. Meanwhile, a ground campaign led by Iran, Assad's forces and affiliated Shiite militias will only exacerbate the sectarian divide and drive Sunnis into the arms of jihadists.
However, if the West embarks on building a coalition of willing, capable and worthy local and international forces with the same mind-set and scale of commitment as the US demonstrated when Iraq conquered Kuwait in 1990/1, the picture would significantly change. An important element is a clear and substantial military commitment by NATO powers, which would involve Britain and France playing an active role in the air campaign and the US significantly increasing the intensity of its actions. Only a clear show of determination by Western powers can successfully recruit local forces to such a coalition, as it will help shape the calculations of forces on the ground and other external actors.
The first goal of this coalition should be to capture the ISIS capital of Raqqa in northern Syria and delink ISIS's main centers of power in Syria and Iraq. This would deal a severe practical and symbolic blow to ISIS and could go a long way to diminishing its mystique and prestige. Denying ISIS this major fulcrum would then make it easier to generate momentum towards defeating it, though this will still require time and efforts.
Kurdish militia forces together with select Sunni tribal forces could serve as the core ground force for such a coalition. Kurdish combatant forces in Syria are estimated at about 25,000 (and there is a much larger Kurdish force in Iraq which could play a supporting role), and they represent the most potent ground forces facing ISIS with a record of overwhelming success in their encounters. To them must be added several thousand select Sunni tribal forces (some of which already cooperate with the Kurds), who will ultimately have to govern liberated Sunni areas such as Raqqa. These forces should be given direct and significant military assistance and augmented by multi-national Western ground forces - preferably several brigades, but at a bare minimum strong Special Forces tasked with combatant missions, including those aimed at ISIS's centers of gravity and generating synergy between air and ground forces. In military terms this is not another Iraq war and far from mission impossible. ISIS's forces in northern Syria are estimated at approximately 30,000. They suffer from numerous disadvantages, and could be defeated by a coalition of several tens of thousands, supported by close and intensive Western air power.
There are undoubtedly both major domestic political obstacles involved for Western powers as well as significant regional complications. In order for the Kurds and Sunni tribes to bear the burden of this campaign they will have to be promised some kind of autonomy, possibly in a federal framework along the lines of Kurdish autonomy in Iraq. Such a policy would require thorough strategic planning but represents the only realistic basis for a future 'day after' political solution in both Syria and Iraq. Despite pushback from those such as Turkey and the Iran-Assad coalition who oppose such a policy, it is worth pursuing primarily because the stakes are so high, time is of the essence and the alternatives are much worse. Countries who claim commitment to defeating ISIS, such as Turkey and Russia should be put on the horns of a dilemma in deciding their attitude towards such a coalition of the willing. If possible, eliciting tacit understanding from Russia (which does not oppose Kurdish autonomy) without empowering Iran could be of particular value.
Simultaneous to the ground campaign is the need for the West - as well as the Arab and Muslim worlds - to invest in a long-term comprehensive strategy to decipher and counter ISIS's appeal to so many young Muslims. Current security measures in the West, (important as they are), are not enough and serious efforts to counter ISIS's allure are lacking. ISIS is currently conducting its war in several interlinked theatres - the Middle East and the West, a war on the ground and a war on hearts and minds - and should be effectively countered in them all.
Meanwhile, it is highly important to prevent Iran and its proxies, as well as Sunni jihadists, from establishing a foothold in the south of Syria, which could threaten Israel and Jordan. Israel is alert to this danger and is likely to take independent action to protect its interests if necessary. However, ways should also be sought to enable the more moderate local rebel groups to consolidate and maintain control in that sector.
Urgent humanitarian solutions must also be provided, including enhanced assistance to neighboring countries, especially Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, and the establishment of safe zones for the displaced in Syria, so as to mitigate the human tragedy and its destabilizing impact. Liberating Raqqa and other parts of northern Syria from ISIS could enable the creation of a safe zone in that region, since the liberating forces will be able to maintain and protect it from attacks, but there is also potential for a safe zone in southern Syria.
Finally, Western policy makers should take into account the importance of preventing the empowerment of the Iranian-led axis. These actors do not share the West's vision for an inclusive system in Syria and Iraq and might exacerbate sectarian tensions in these countries to benefit the jihadi camp and further destabilize the region. Ultimately it is the job of Sunnis - rather than Iran and its Shia proxies - to beat and eventually replace Sunni jihadists.
Whilst a comprehensive solution for Syria looks beyond reach in the foreseeable future, the situation nonetheless demands urgent and far-reaching action guided by a long-term view. Without such action, the threat to the stability of states in the region as well as security in the West will only continue to grow. One can only hope that the political will for such action will not be generated by further terror attacks in the West.
Two Steps Forward and One Step Backward - By Daymond Duck -
http://www.raptureready.com/featured/duck/dd204.html
Two steps forward and one step backward pretty much describes what has taken place with the destruction of Damascus (Isa. 17) and the Battle of Gog and Magog (Ezek. 38-39) in the last couple of weeks.
The fulfillment of God's Word is definitely moving forward but there are setbacks. Things are definitely advancing in the direction that God said they will go, but it is herky-jerky or irregular.
The first step forward concerns the war between Syria and Israel at the end of the age. The Bible says Damascus will cease to exist as a city in one night (Isa. 17:1, 14).
When that happens Ephraim (northern Israel) will suffer great damage (Isa. 17:3) and the glory of Jacob (Israel) will be weakened and many Jews will go hungry (Isa. 17:4).
It will be a terrible event, but good will come from it because a man will "look to his Maker, and his eyes shall have respect to the Holy One of Israel" (Isa. 17:7). War that causes people to accept Jesus is not all bad.
This prophecy advanced when Turkey shot down a Russian jet in late November. Russia's Defense Minister responded by announcing plans to deploy a battery of sophisticated S-400 missiles to Syria to protect Russia's planes.
Some in Israel see these missiles as a game-changer because they can shoot down Israeli planes flying over northern and central Israel. They expose northern Israel to the kind of danger prophesied in the Bible.
The second step forward concerns the stationing of Russian and Iranian planes in Syria. When the battle of Gog and Magog takes place, God said, "Thou shalt ascend and come like a storm, thou shalt be like a cloud to cover the land, thou, and all thy bands, and many people with thee" (Ezek. 38:9).
Many, including this writer, think "like a cloud to cover the land" refers to jets, bombers and helicopters. We believe the Russian-led forces will fill the skies over Israel with aircraft.
When Russia first started moving planes into Syria Russia sent in 34 bombers and several helicopters. In the next four or five weeks, Russia more than doubled the number of bombers to 69. The growing number of planes indicates a plan to expand the war.
In addition to this, DEBKAfile reported that Iran has sent dozens of planes to Syria to escort Russian bombers (First Iranian fighter jets over Syria alongside Russian bombers; Nov. 22, 2015.) The report said some of these planes are operating near Syria's border with Israel.
That is a no, no. And the fact that Russia may have sent in missiles that can shoot down Israel's jets makes it very dangerous for northern Israel. Israel's use of a big bomb or a powerful missile is not inconceivable.
The step backward concerns Turkey's downing of the Russian plane. Not all agree, but many think Togarmah of the north quarters is Turkey. If this is right, Turkey will be on Russia's side in the Battle of Gog and Magog.
But Turkey's downing of the Russian plane has provoked a harsh response from Russia. Mr. Putin quickly suspended cooperation with Turkey's military, threatened economic retaliation, suggested that Russian citizens should leave Turkey, started bombing Turkish sites and allies in Syria, started jamming some Turkish electronic military communications and started destroying trucks that have been delivering stolen oil that Turkey was illegally buying from the Islamic State.
On the other side, Pres. Erdogan has warned Russia not to play with fire and there have been at least two reports that Turkey may be interfering with the movement of some Russian merchant ships and the ships in Russia's Black Sea fleet. It is an explosive situation that Russia most surely will not tolerate and it could drag in NATO and touch off a nuclear war.
It is difficult to say what will happen. The two will have to make up in a hurry or it will be a while before the battle of Gog and Magog takes place.
Anyway, the problem between Russia and Turkey is a step backward, but the introduction of Russian missiles that can hit northern Israel and the buildup of planes from Russia and Iran are two signs that Bible prophecy is still moving toward the predicted scenario.
Prophecy Plus Ministries
Daymond & Rachel Duck
Saudi and Egyptian marines capture Iran-held island at Red Sea choke-point - http://www.debka.com/article/25078/Saudi-and-Egyptian-marines-capture-Iran-held-island-at-Red-Sea-chokepoint
In a pivotal breakthrough in the Yemen civil war, Thursday, Dec. 11 the naval forces of Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAR took by storm from Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels the Greater Hanish island, which is part of the strategic archipelago commanding the Strait of Bab al Mandeb. This is reported exclusively by debkafile's Middle East sources.
This highly strategic strait links the Indian Ocean with the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea - i.e. Africa and Asia - and is the world's fourth busiest chokepoint for international oil traffic.
Captured by Yemeni rebels last May, the island was converted by Iranian officers into an armed base and one of Tehran's largest depots for the supply of arms to its forces and proxies in the region. A fleet of small boats and fishing vessels kept the Yemeni Houthis amply armed for fending off the Saudi-led Arab coalition fighting to restore the exiled Yemeni government.
The Hanish island base also provided Iran with a commanding position for spreading its influence in Ethiopia and Eritrea on the eastern African seaboard.
Taking the island was a major breakthrough for the coalition, after long months of combat that was crowned by their capture of the southern Yemeni seaport of Aden in the past three months. With the occupation of Greater Hanish, Saudi-led forces are now in position not just to cut off Iran's weapons supplies to the Yemeni rebels, but also to break its grip on the vital strait that connects the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal.
Iran maintained on Greater Hanish Island advanced radar and electronic tracking stations for keeping an eye on military movements on the southern Saudi border with northern Yemen. They could also shadow oil tanker and other shipping passing through the Red Sea, and stake out Israel's south- and east-bound sea traffic as it passed through the Gulf of Aqaba.
debkafile's military and intelligence sources reveal that Saudi Arabia and Egypt finally decided that the seizure of the strategic island could not be delayed when last month, Iran won a permit to establish an air and sea base in Djibouti, the Horn of Africa nation opposite the Gulf of Aden's entrance to the Red Sea.
Djibouti derives much of its revenue from renting out tracts of land to foreign nations seeking bases of operation in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea. American and French bases are situated no more than 214 km from Greater Hanish Island.
Riyadh, Cairo and the UAE agreed that they could not afford to let Iranian air and naval forces gain control of the Bab El-Mandeb Strait from its twin footholds on the island and in Djibouti.
They were not the only interested parties. It may be taken for granted that their operation to take over Greater Hanish was quietly assisted by Western and Middle East interests that had been watching Iran's takeover of these vital ocean pathways with grave concern.
Where do Israeli Interests Fit in the Russia-Turkey-Syria Puzzle? - By Sean Savage - http://www.breakingisraelnews.com/55924/where-israeli-interests-fit-russia-turkey-syria-puzzle-middle-east/#W5dTfID1MwhreWwy.97
"Son of man, set your face toward Gog of the land of Magog, the prince of Rosh, Meshech and Tubal, and prophesy against him and say, 'Thus says the Lord GOD, "Behold, I am against you, O Gog, prince of Rosh, Meshech and Tubal".' " (Ezekiel 38:2-3)
The Syrian civil war continues to fester and has now drawn in nearly every major world power, including the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Russia, and Syria's neighbor of Turkey, who all have different and often opposing interests.
The geopolitical situation recently escalated to new heights on Nov. 24, when a Turkish F-16 fighter jet shot down a Russian Su-24 fighter jet near the Turkish-Syrian border. Turkey, which is a member of theNorth Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), accused the Russian jet of repeatedly violating its airspace and is concerned with Russian attacks on Turkmen rebels-a Turkish ethnic group in Syria-who have been fighting the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad, a government Russia and Iran both support.
While the Nov. 24 incident took place at the opposite end of Syria as far as the Israeli border is concerned, the conflict next door has naturally loomed large for the Jewish state, which has been increasingly concerned about Iran and the Lebanon-based Hezbollah terrorist group's involvement on one hand, and the Islamic State terrorist organization's role on the other. What do recent tensions between Russia and Turkey mean for Israel, and can the Jewish state benefit in any way from this conflict?
"As [Russian President Vladimir] Putin has now publicly pointed to yet another enemy for Russia, his list of allies continues to grow thin," Anna Borshchevskaya, an expert on Russia's Middle East policy for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy think tank, told JNS.org regarding the Turkey situation. "It would be in Putin's interest to seek improvement of relations with countries that he has not yet named his enemies, and Israel is one such country."
Despite the divergent goals of Russia and Israel in Syria, the Jewish state-unlike other Western countries-has coordinated with Russia on its military campaign in Syria in order to avoid any inadvertent clashes.
In late September, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Putin in Moscow to establish a military mechanism in order prevent any inadvertent clashes between Israeli and Russian forces operating in Syria.
"Some analysts and former Israeli officials have said Russia's involvement in Syria will be helpful to Israel in terms of their security issues-they see a convergence of interests-but I think there are questions to be asked about how helpful Russia's involvement in Syria really is for Israel," Borshchevskaya said.
The recent climate change conference in Paris, which brought together major world leaders in an effort to reduce global carbon dioxide emissions, proved to be an important backdrop for world leaders discuss other issues-such as the Syria civil war.
"I just had an important talk with Russian President Vladimir Putin," Netanyahu told reporters at the Paris conference. "We agreed to deepen the coordination between us in order to prevent mishaps and to do so on a broad basis."
"I think that every citizen of Israel understands today, in light of recent events on the Turkish border, the great importance of my trip to Moscow and these ongoing contacts with the Russian president," added the Israeli leader.
Netanyahu's comments came on the heels of a statement by Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon praising security coordination with Russia that has prevented Russia-Israel clashes in the region. According to Ya'alon, a Russian jet recently breached Israeli airspace, but the issue was "immediately fixed through communications channels."
Separately in Paris, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been known for his anti-Semitic and anti-Israel rhetoric, told a reporter from the Israeli radio station Kol Yisrael that he could "fix" ties with Israel, which have been strained for several years over the 2010 Gaza flotilla incident (in which Turkish militants attacked Israeli commandos who boarded a vessel that tried to breach the blockade on the Gaza Strip, resulting in clashes that killed nine of the Turkish attackers). Erdogan, however, was immediately rushed off by aides without providing further details.
"Erdogan's remarks were curious given the accepted wisdom that Israel and Turkey have worked out the basic parameters of compensation over the Mavi Marmara incident, but that Netanyahu is reluctant to sign off and give Erdogan a victory," Michael Koplow, who serves as policy director for the Israel Policy Forum think tank, told JNS.org.
"The implication is that the ball is in Israel's court at the moment rather than Turkey's, and so unless Erdogan was referencing some way in which he can sweeten the deal for Israel, it is likely just the latest example of Erdogan attributing to himself powers that don't necessarily comport with reality," Koplow said.
While nearly everyone in the civilized world agrees that Islamic State is a menace that needs to be defeated, differing national interests in the Syrian civil war have led to confusion when it comes to trying to solve that conflict.
Yet for Israel, which is less concerned with the threat of Islamic State jihadists and more focused on the support Iran and its proxy-Hezbollah-provide for Assad, forging closer ties with Russia may seem paradoxical.
"I think part of what's happening is that Israel has seen for some time now Russia's growing influence in the Middle East as the U.S. retreated from the region," said the Washington Institute's Borshchevskaya. "Israel has very real security concerns, such as Russian weapons falling into Hezbollah's hands. This situation I think from Israel's perspective adds to reasons for increasing cooperation with Russia when the U.S. reduces its presence in the region."
But while Israel is concerned about Iran and Hezbollah, it has taken a more pragmatic approach to the Syrian conflict and has not strongly pushed for Assad's removal, as Turkey has done.
"Israel has been very careful to avoid similar tensions with Russia as Turkey has experienced over Syria. For starters, Israel has taken a more neutral stance on its preferred outcome in Syria and thus, unlike Turkey, does not see Russian support for Assad as an insurmountable problem," Koplow said.
The war of words between Russia and Turkey has continued to escalate, as Turkey has refused to apologize for the fighter jet incident and Russia has sought sanctions against Turkey. On Dec. 2, Russian military officials upped the rhetoric by saying they have "hard evidence" that Turkey is involved in oil trade with Islamic State.
Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov went further, accusing Erdogan and his family of personally benefiting from Islamic State's oil, while other Russian officials noted links between Turkey and oil refineries in Islamic State-controlled territory in Syria.
"The highest political leadership of the country-President Erdogan and his family-are involved in this criminal business," Antonov said.
Erdogan struck back, saying in a speech at Qatar University that "no one has the right to slander Turkey, especially the slander of Turkey buying ISIS oil."
The Turkish leader said he would be willing to resign if Moscow's claims were proven true.
While Russia and Turkey continue to trade barbs over Syria, it is unclear what the unfolding situation holds in store for Israel as the Jewish state seeks to maintain its comparatively neutral stance on the civil war.
"I don't see Israel benefiting in any real way from Russian-Turkish tension, and while the war of words between Russia and Turkey is escalating, neither side will benefit from real military confrontation," Koplow told JNS.org. "I expect Russia and Turkey to be locked in a mini-cold war going forward, but I would be surprised to see things spiral out of control and lead to an actual hot war."
BE SURE TO CHECK OUT MY ALL NEW PROPHECY AND CREATION DESIGN WEBSITES. THERE IS A LOT TO SEE AND DO..........
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.