Syrian war as testing ground for Russia's latest sea and air weapons - http://www.debka.com/article/25080/Syrian-war-as-testing-ground-for-Russia's-latest-sea-and-air-weapons
Like other manufacturers of advanced military weaponry, Russia has sought - and found in the Syrian conflict - a live battleground for testing and exhibiting its latest and most advanced tools of war. The two most sophisticated Russian armaments on full operational display in recent weeks are the Kalibr NK cruise missile and the Sukhoi Su-34 Fullback fighter-bomber.
Western sources commented Sunday, Dec. 13: The cruise missiles launched from a Kilo-class submarine provided visible proof of how President Vladimir Putin is using his intervention in Syria as a showcase for Russian military prowess..
In terms of flexing muscle, the Kalibr NK subsonic cruise missile, or as it is known in the West, the SS-N-30As, takes the prize. Its debut launch from a warship in the Caspian Sea on Nov. 20, not only hit Islamic State and rebel targets, but allowed Russian warships to show their paces in delivering long-range missiles, capable of carrying conventional or nuclear warheads, to targets at a distance of between 990 km (620 miles) and 1,467 km (923 miles) away.
It also conveyed the message to NATO that nuclear cruise missiles fired from Russian Black Sea Fleet warships were capable of reaching any target in Europe.
To counter this message, American and other Western military sources claimed that the Kalibr missiles had missed their mark, either crashing in Iran or blowing up prematurely in mid-air. They hoped to temper the strong impression conveyed to European governments, which suddenly felt exposed to a nuclear-capable missile threat from the Black Sea region as well as from Russian fleet bases in the Baltic Sea port of Kaliningrad, which had just received brand-new Kalibr missile shipments.
On Dec. 9, the commander of US forces in Europe, Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, addressed this situation. He said that Russia had indeed transferred ballistic missiles to its Kaliningrad military enclave and conducted nuclear strike drills. He also said: "There is a significant amount of capability in Kaliningrad, including anti-ship weapons, air defenses, and electronic warfare equipment."
Gen. Hodges spoke the day after the second Russian missile barrage targeted Syria - 17 days after the first. This time, the Kalibr cruise missiles were launched from a Kilo-class submarine, the Rostov-on-Don, which had meanwhile sailed into the eastern Mediterranean. This round too hit their targets, and also conveyed a dual message:
1. The Russians are capable of firing advanced cruise missiles from submarines as well as surface warships, and 2. Russia has established a chain of warships and missiles running 2.500 km from Kaliningrad in the north to the eastern Mediterranean, via the Black Sea.
To boost the air power Moscow is investing in the Syrian war, Russian has brought over half a dozen Sukhoi Su-34 Fullback warplanes. This fighter-bomber is designed primarily for striking ground and naval targets. It excels in destroying small moving targets. Under the conditions in Syria, The Su-34's rare ability to pinpoint small ISIS or rebel convoys as well as big ones is especially apposite.
This is a brand new warplane, debkafile's military sources report, which entered the service of the Russia air force only two years ago. It is being tested in Syria for the first time in real combat conditions. So far, the SU-34 has stood up to Russian expectations. They are now testing it further to find out if it can replace the older Su-24 fighter bombers.
Does an Islamic Prophecy Foretell an Apocalyptic Battle with the West? - Troy Anderson - http://www.charismanews.com/world/53707-does-an-islamic-prophecy-foretell-an-apocalyptic-battle-with-the-west
As the Islamic State has drawn the world's attention with terrorist attacks in France, California and elsewhere, Islamic experts say the militants wants to draw the United States and its allies into a ground war in the Middle East.
But these experts say this could be the "worst trap" because the founder of the Islamic State, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, believes in an Islamic prophecy that states Islam will be victorious following an apocalyptic battle with the West once Western forces invade the Middle East again.
"Should that invasion happen, the Islamic State not only would be able to declare its prophecy fulfilled, but could also turn the occurrence into a new recruiting drive at the very moment the terrorist group appears to be losing volunteers," wrote Rukmini Callimachi in a New York Times article.
President Obama referred to this prophecy in his speech Sunday night, arguing the United States should pursue a "sustainable victory" involving airstrikes and supporting local forces battling the Islamic State rather than engaging in another ground war in the region.
"I have said it repeatedly: Because of these prophecies, going in on the ground would be the worst trap to fall into," said Jean-Pierre Filiu, a professor of Middle East Studies at Sciences Po in Paris, and the author of Apocalypse in Islam. "They want troops on the ground. Because they have already envisioned it. It's a very powerful and emotional narrative. It gives the potential recruit and the actual fighters the feeling that not only are they part of the elite, they are also part of the final battle."
Joel C. Rosenberg, a New York Times bestselling author, wrote on his blog that his latest political thriller, The Third Target, and his forthcoming novel, The First Hostage, envision a scenario in which ISIS leaders are driven by end times prophecies to capture chemical weapons in Syria and launch attacks against the U.S., Israel and Sunni Arabs.
"As The First Hostage unfolds, ISIS leaders are trying feverishly to draw the U.S. and the Western powers ('the forces of Rome') into a bloody ground war in Syria," Rosenberg wrote. "Why? In order to fulfill Islamic prophecies about an apocalyptic end times battle in an obscure Syrian town called Dabiq and establish a global Islamic kingdom or caliphate."
Although he's had difficulty convincing western leaders of the importance of the "genocidal intentions of our enemies and the Islamic eschatology that is driving them," Rosenberg says he's been encouraged by the release of a recent book by Brookings Institution scholar Dr. Will McCants, The ISIS Apocalypse: The History, Strategy, and Doomsday Vision of the Islamic State, that explains the significance of the Islamic prophecies, along with recent remarks by GOP presidential candidates Sen. Marco Rubio and Sen. Rick Santorum, who have spoken out about the threat of "apocalyptic Islam."
"My hope (is) that other candidates and current office-holders, military leaders and intelligence experts will start studying and publicly discussing this matter," Rosenberg wrote.
Israeli security in Cold War II - By Louis Rene Beres - http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/dec/16/louis-rene-beres-israeli-security-in-cold-war-ii/
As the U.S. and Russia face off, the Jewish state could be an asset in the war on terror
Although the Soviet Union has disappeared, a new Cold War is rapidly emerging between the United States and Russia. For Israel, a tiny country seeking to endure amid expanding regional chaos, this revival of superpower rivalry could signal either greater risks of national insecurity or a better opportunity for national survival. In part, at least, the outcome could be determined in Jerusalem, not only in Washington or Moscow.
In essence, several sorts of purposeful realignment are now possible for Israel. To begin, both Washington and Moscow are sure to notice that Israel represents a uniquely reliable oasis of stability in an otherwise disintegrating region. Over time, this recognizable awareness could permit Jerusalem to deal selectively with both superpowers, on a security-enhancing basis.
Although the Soviet Union has disappeared, a new Cold War is rapidly emerging between the United States and Russia. For Israel, a tiny country seeking to endure amid expanding regional chaos, this revival of superpower rivalry could signal either greater risks of national insecurity or a better opportunity for national survival. In part, at least, the outcome could be determined in Jerusalem, not only in Washington or Moscow.
In essence, several sorts of purposeful realignment are now possible for Israel. To begin, both Washington and Moscow are sure to notice that Israel represents a uniquely reliable oasis of stability in an otherwise disintegrating region. Over time, this recognizable awareness could permit Jerusalem to deal selectively with both superpowers, on a security-enhancing basis.
This misconceived agreement also managed to subvert two already-existing international treaties, the Nonproliferation Treaty of 1968, and the Genocide Convention of 1948. Significantly, these treaties are ipso facto the law of the United States, by virtue of the Constitution's expressed "Supremacy Clause" (Article 6), and also of various U.S. Supreme Court decisions, especially the Paquete Habana (1900).
For Israel, the rekindling of Cold War tensions between Washington and Moscow presents a serious but also an opportunistic challenge. Should this challenge be suitably interpreted in Jerusalem, the Jewish state's indispensable strategies of national survival will stand a much better chance of long-term success. It is, therefore, still entirely possible that certain Cold War II consequences could unfold to Israel's overall strategic advantage, rather than to the advantage of its myriad and often overlapping enemies.
Even here, however, it will first be necessary for Jerusalem to plan ahead, and to more fully examine all pertinent dynamics of Cold War II. A proper starting point would be the growing commonality of interest between Washington and Moscow in combating jihadi terrorism. More than any other country on earth, Israel is positioned to advise one or both of the superpowers on expected requirements of success in what is a conspicuously joint struggle. In its expected unfolding, Cold War II could eventually prove to be a distinct asset rather than injurious liability for Israel's core national security.
China is moving into the Middle East - why is no one worried? - By Con Coughlin - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/12055805/China-is-moving-intyo-Syria-why-is-no-one-worried.html
The Chinese are establishing their first overseas military base in Djibouti, one of the Pentagon's most important outposts - and America is concerned
The delicate balance of power in the Middle East has already suffered one dramatic upheaval this year, after Moscow's decision to launch its military intervention in support of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. Now there are mounting concerns that the region could suffer further instability following China's decision to establish its first overseas military outpost in one of the world's most troubled hotshots.
Ever since President Obama decided to scale down American involvement in a region that has for decades been regarded as Washington's sphere of influence, policymakers have been warning that the power vacuum would be filled by regimes that did not have Western interests at heart.
The absence of an effective Western policy to deal with the chaos in Syria prompted Vladimir Putin to form a military alliance with Iran to save the Assad regime from annihilation.
Now the Chinese seem set to make their own power play by establishing their first overseas military base in the strategically important state of Djibouti, one of the Pentagon's most important listening posts for the Arab world and Africa.
Sited at the junction between the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, Djibouti is home to Camp Lemmonier, the Pentagon's main intelligence-gathering post for the Arab world and the strategically-important shipping lanes through the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. The base hosts 4,500 U.S. military personnel and has become one of Washington's key listening posts since the September 11 attacks.
Although its main function is to serve as a listening post for the Arab world and African trouble spot, such as neighboring Somalia, it also houses U.S. Special Forces, fighter planes and helicopters, as well as being a major operational center for drone operations in Africa and the Middle East.
But China's decision earlier this month that it is to build its own naval base in Djibouti, the first time Beijing has sought to establish a permanent military presence beyond the country's borders, has been greeted with deep concern at the Pentagon, which recently announced a $1.4 billion plan to expand the base. Pentagon officials fear that the proximity of the Chinese military installation could have a negative impact on the effectiveness of Camp Lemmonier as a listening post.
One of the reasons China has been able to pull off this audacious military stakeout in Djibouti, a country previously regarded as lying within Washington's sphere of influence, is the increasingly erratic conduct of its autocratic leader, President Ismail Omar Guelleh.
For many years after coming to power in 1999, Mr Guelleh forged a close relationship with Washington, which propped up his government by providing the impoverished African country with hundreds of millions of dollars in aid.
But relations became strained after Mr Guelleh came under intense criticism from Washington over his human rights record, and his determination to seek a fourth term in office in next year's presidential elections, which many of his opponent's claim is unconstitutional.
The Djibouti strongman's determination to cling to power has even resulted in a major falling-out with a former business partner, resulting in an acrimonious court case in London where a judge at London's Commercial Court took the unprecedented step of ordering Mr Guelleh to appear in person after his legal team were accused of deliberately misleading the court. It was the first time a serving head of state had been ordered to appear in a British court since King Charles 1 in 1649, who was subsequently executed for treason. In the event Mr Guelleh decided to absent himself.
Mr Guelleh's increasingly erratic conduct has, however, provided the Chinese with the opportunity they have been seeking to establish a military foothold that will enable Beijing to protect its valuable commercial assets in the Arabian Peninsula and the Indian Ocean.
But while the establishment of a naval base in Djibouti represents a significant gain for the Chinese, Pentagon officials fear they could be the big losers, particularly so far as their counter-terrorism operations against Islamic State and al-Qaeda are concerned.
Is Russia gearing up for war with Turkey? - http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/205112#.VnRBAzbSkaF
Missile cruiser deployed to Syrian coast after jet shot down - but its massive nuclear-capable arsenal isn't meant for fighting jihadists.
Captain Alexander Shvarts watched on as the iron covers whirred open on the air defense system aboard the Russian navy's Mosvka missile cruiser off the Syrian coast.
"This system can fire up to twelve missiles at any one time," Shvarts said Thursday during a highly choreographed press tour of the ship arranged by the Russian defense ministry. "The range is around 70 kilometers (43 miles)."
The Moskva - flagship of Russia's Crimea-based Black Sea Fleet - is the largest warship the Kremlin has sent to support its bombing campaign in the war-torn nation.
It is patrolling some 10 nautical miles (13 kilometers) offshore in the eastern Mediterranean.
Until about three weeks ago, the Soviet-era craft, built in 1983, was further out to sea providing protection for ships delivering supplies for the Russian base on land.
But after a Turkish F-16 fighter blasted a Russian jet out of the sky along the Syrian border it was ordered closer to shore to help ward off any future attacks on Russian planes bombing across Syria.
"Now our main task is to provide air cover for the Russian base at Hmeimim in Syria and for the Russian planes carrying our their tasks over the country," Shvarts said.
Nuclear capable
Russia has bolstered its bombing campaign in Syria from the water - firing cruise missiles from a submarine in the Mediterranean earlier this month and from warships in the Caspian Sea far to the east.
The Moskva, however, is designed primarily to take out other vessels at sea and aircraft in the sky and has not used any of its fierce array of weaponry in the Syrian operation.
That includes Vulkan missiles, designed to sink other warships. They can be armed with nuclear warheads, although there are none currently on board.
"It would be like shooting sparrows with a cannon," military spokesman Igor Konashenkov told AFP during a tour of the ship.
"These are just not the right weapons to use to hit our targets in Syria."
After the downing of its jet by Turkey Moscow also rushed its latest S-400 air defense system to the Hmeimim base in Syria.
That system has a range and capacity that far outstrips the weaponry on board the Moskva, meaning the ship may not have much strategic necessity.
But by dispatching a key warship like the Moskva - with its crew of some 500 - the Kremlin seems to be making a clear statement of strength.
During the press tour for some few dozen journalists from Russia, Syria and international outlets - the first of its kind to a ship involved in the Syria operation - the military proudly showed off the bristling array of hardware on board.
The huge gun turrets swiveled back and forth and rocket systems were primed for the cameras.
"Overall, including the Moskva, we have 11 vessels in this area involved in the operation, including landing ships, smaller missile boats and supply craft," said Commander Oleg Krivorog.
Now the Moskva remains roving up and down the coast of Syria - and it does not look like it will be returning to its home port of Sevastopol any time soon.
"We are waiting now for a rotation and to receive new crew," Captain Shvarts told AFP as he bid farewell to the journalists.
"As for any date on the end of our mission, that I am not going to talk about."
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