In Gaza, deadly flames expose a very fragile standoff with Israel - By Avi Issacharoff -
http://www.timesofisrael.com/in-gaza-deadly-flames-expose-a-very-fragile-standoff-with-israel/
After a fire kills 3 Palestinian children, Hamas points most of the blame at the PA. Plainly, it doesn't want a new war... for now
In one sudden and tragic moment on Friday night, discussion over the latest escalation of violence between Hamas and Israel was relegated to secondary importance for some residents of Gaza. Local media began reporting extensively on an incident in the northwest of the Strip, in the Shati refugee camp.
Three toddlers from the al-Hindi family had perished in a fire in their home, caused by the candles lit in their room. The horror was reinforced by images of the three bodies that quickly spread across social media and on news sites that decided not to blur out the pictures.
By Saturday morning, a vitriolic blame game between Hamas and Fatah was in full swing, with Israel also being connected to the incident.
At the center of the stormy debate is the question of who is responsible for the continual power outages that led the bereaved family (like tens of thousands of other Gaza families) to light candles.
The accusations began with members of the Hindi family themselves. On Saturday morning, they published pictures of some of the men in the extended family standing amid the rubble of what was left of the house, holding portraits of Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah and Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas.
On the pictures it was written "child killers."
The response from Ramallah came swiftly.
Within a few hours, Jamal al-Muhsin, a member of Fatah's central committee, said the Hindi family themselves were responsible for the deaths of the three children because they did not heed the instructions of the Gaza authorities, who urge residents not to leave candles burning in homes when dealing with power outages.
Muhsin, who is considered one of the closest men to Abbas, also said that Hamas was responsible for the incident, because it does not allow the government of Hamdallah to operate in the Strip and deal with the power problem.
Additionally, in an attempt to ease the criticism against the PA over the fire in Gaza, Abbas spoke over the phone to the father of the three killed children. Hamdallah also announced the family will be given a new house and some money.
But the story doesn't end there.
At the funeral for the three children Saturday afternoon, Hamas's Gaza head Ismail Haniyeh accused the government in Ramallah of strongly opposing a seaport in Gaza and refusing to "establish projects" to lift the siege - the security blockade imposed by Israel and Egypt on Gaza, to prevent its Hamas terror rulers from importing weaponry.
"Who bears the responsibility?" asked Haniyeh. "Who takes $70 million in taxes each month? Who insists on imposing a tax on fuel for the power station? Who refuses to extend the gas line from Israel to the power station in Gaza?" Haniyeh fumed, while noting that the PA's shortcomings did not detract from "the crimes of the occupation" - i.e. Israel.
On Sunday morning, residents of the Strip awoke to find a massive billboard placed at a central Gazan junction that featured blood splattered across Abbas and Hamdallah.
"Our blood is on your necks," the billboard says.
At the heart of the power supply dispute is an excise tax on fuel that comes from Israel via the PA. Hamas refuses to pay and demands the government in Ramallah pony up.
The PA is paying for half of the tax now and says Hamas must pay the other half.
Meanwhile, the power company claims that it does not have enough money to buy sufficient gas. One can guess, then, that the power outages will continue. And therefore, the residents of Gaza will continue to use candles for light.
Hamas and Israel: A love-hate story
Still, even as Hamas speaks out against the PA, it seems to be doing whatever possible to avoid another round of fighting with Israel, limiting itself in its response to Israeli tunnel-seeking incursions into the Strip and seemingly accommodating, however grudgingly, Israeli activity within Gazan territory.
In recent days the Israel Defense Forces have operated just inside Gaza - in a strip of 150 meters from the border within Palestinian territory. Hamas was content with firing a limited number of mortars into open areas in protest.
What it did not do was fire rockets at Israeli towns or to send out its special forces for a raid by land or by sea.
During the days that the IDF operated within the strip, Hamas sent messages to Israel via Qatar, Egypt, the UN and others to say that it was not interested in another war. An agreement was indirectly created between the two sides - with the help of Egyptian mediators - under which Israel will leave this inside "perimeter" soon, Hamas will cease firing, and during the fighting Hamas won't do more than fire a few perfunctory rounds.
Practically speaking, in a manner that it would never admit to, Hamas thus signaled it would not go to war over the recent Israeli operations on the border. Even in Haniyeh's weekly Friday night speech, routinely full of pathos and battle cries against Israel, the former prime minister chose this time to emphasize that Hamas does not want a war.
Yet the cold status quo could change. Within Hamas's military wing, some are demanding the group take violent action with an "opening strike" that they hope will eventually bring about the lifting of the siege of Gaza.
There is also increasing support among ordinary Gazans for a new round of fighting, especially among those who have little to lose.
One errant Israeli shell or Palestinian mortar, as I wrote here on Friday, will strengthen advocates for war in both camps. But a deadly accident, like a candle knocked over, can ignite the region just the same.
Israel and Hamas are one misdirected shell away from war - By Avi Issacharoff -
http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-and-hamas-are-one-misdirected-shell-away-from-war/
The IDF and Hamas are wrestling in a small area near the border fence, insisting they don't want all-out conflict but coming dangerously close to it
Reports on Thursday evening that Janaa al Amor, a 49-year-old Palestinian woman, had been killed by Israeli artillery fire east of Khan Younis in the northern Gaza Strip illustrates how easily violence on the border between Israel and Gaza can escalate.
For now, it must be said, both sides seem interested in containing the violence. Even though IDF forces have been operating just beyond the Gaza fence, hunting on both sides of the border for Hamas's attack tunnels, Hamas has been firing at the troops rather than launching rockets toward populated areas.
Nor has Hamas used its remaining tunnels - two of which have been found in the last month - or other means to attack Israeli targets.
For now, the two sides wrestle within this small perimeter, an area of 150-200 meters (165-656 feet) from the border fence where Israeli forces are operating under fire from Hamas members. On Thursday afternoon, Palestinian sources claimed that IDF troops were active in Beit Hanoun in the northern Gaza Strip and in Rafah at its south, inside Palestinian territory.
But this scuffle does not look like it's going to end anytime soon and it is not clear how long it will be limited to the small perimeter area, before potentially spilling into Israel on one side and deep into the Gaza Strip on the other.
But this scuffle does not look like it's going to end anytime soon and it is not clear how long it will be limited to the small perimeter area, before potentially spilling into Israel on one side and deep into the Gaza Strip on the other.
It is true that both Israel and Hamas have no interest in a mutual grand show of force, and both sides are attempting to prevent a descent to war. The many statements by senior Hamas officials regarding efforts to reach a ceasefire with Egyptian and Qatari mediation show this well. But the tide may turn as incidents on the ground develop.
Hamas has already announced it will not hold its fire so long as Israeli forces are active inside the Gaza Strip. So far, mortar fire has not caused any injuries, but if, unfortunately, a group of IDF soldiers is hit, the Israeli response is likely to be harsh. The same formula is relevant to the Palestinian side. And the Israeli activity against the terror tunnels, including beyond the border fence, is not expected to end soon.
Israeli bombardments in Gazan territory are limited but if future Israeli sorties cause more casualties, Hamas may not limit its fire to the borderline perimeter. The temptation to launch projectiles deep into Israel will be immense.
What about an attack by Hamas through one of the not-yet undiscovered tunnels?
Such an attack would be tantamount to a declaration of war against Israel, and it is doubtful that this course of action has a lot of support among the political leaders of Hamas.
But the military wing, headed by Muhammed Deif and other extremists like Yahya Sinwar, is already singing different tunes regarding a terror attack that would cause a large number of Israeli casualties. These terrorist leaders argue that Hamas erred by not going on the offensive on the eve of 2014's Operation Protective Edge, Israel's war with Hamas, and they don't want it to make the same "mistake" again.
According to the radical voices in Hamas, the group should begin with an opening strike that can be used to paint a picture of victory when the violence subsides. Only thus, they claim, will Hamas be able to say that it won.
These operatives say that returning to the Gazan routine, where the borders with Egypt and Israel are closed, means a protracted death sentence for Hamas as Gaza's rulers. This is why they support carrying out a massive, lethal terror attack against an Israeli target - before the tunnels are exposed and the opportunity lost.
But even if they do not win that argument, it would only take one "strategic shell" that mistakenly hits a group of soldiers, or Israeli civilians, or Palestinian civilians, to send us speeding down the road to all-out war.
Hezbollah high-up taken out in Syria - http://www.debka.com/article/25420/Hizballah-high-up-taken-out-in-Syria
Arab media reports that on the early morning of Friday May 13th, Hezbollah's chief commander in Lebanon Mustafa Bader Al-din was killed. Al-din is a relative of Hezbollah's Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. Arab media attribute the action to Israeli forces since it was carried out by an airstrike near Damascus's military airport. Israeli sources refused to confirm or deny any connection to the killing.
Debka's exclusive military and anti-terror sources note that while it is indeed possible that Israel is behind the attack, it is also known that Al-din had numerous rivals among Iranian and Syrian top leaders. Lately, Al-Din and Nasrallah were known to be in dispute over Al-din's wish to withdraw large parts of Hezbollah's forces from Syria back to Lebanon and his refusal to take part in several crucial battles in the Syrian war. Al-din claimed that President Assad as well as the Iranian leadership were assigning Hezbollah forces excessively demanding operative tasks. Furthermore, Al-din claimed that Hezbollah finds it hard to cope with the high volume of losses and casualties in the Syrian war.
Debka's exclusive sources further report that earlier this week Al-din met with the commander of the Iranian forces in Syria General Qassem Soleimani near Aleppo in northern Syria. The two clashed over the way in which the war in Syria should be conducted. Al-din claimed the Iran has been a victim of a Russian disinformation scheme under which Moscow is no longer providing aerial backup in Syria. Following what he called "Russia's pulling out from the war", A-din demanded not only not to expand Iran and Hezbollah's attacks in Syria but to narrow them down significantly. Moreover, A-din announced, seemingly without consulting Nassrallah, that he had begun to withdraw Hezbollah forces from the various fronts in Syria and concentrated them near the Syrian-Lebanese border.
All of these appear to be a good enough reason for many parties in Teheran, Damascus and Beirut to get rid of Al-din. That said, all along Al-din never stopped planning attacks on Israeli targets.
Hezbollah MP says Israel responsible for commander's death and is starting 'open war' - http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Hezbollah-MP-says-Israel-responsible-for-commanders-death-says-Israel-starting-open-war-453907
Former national security adviser to Netanyahu, Yaakov Amidror, said Badreddine's killing was good news for Israel but stopped short of saying Israel was responsible.
Nawar al-Saheli, a Hezbollah member of Lebanon's parliament, accused Israel on Friday of being responsible for the death of their top commander, Mustafa Amine Badreddine, and called the attack part of an "open war."
"We do not want to get ahead of the investigation, but there is no doubt that Israel was behind his death," the MP told Hezbollah-controlled TV station Al-Manar.
"The resistance will carry out its duties at the appropriate time," he added.
Cabinet minister Zeev Elkin, a confidant of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, declined to comment on the allegations in a interview with Army Radio.
Hezbollah has not publicly placed blame on Israel. The terror group confirmed Badreddine had been killed in a big explosion targeting one of its bases near Damascus airport, and an investigation was underway into whether it was caused by an air strike, a missile attack or artillery bombardment. It did not say when he was killed.
Yaakov Amidror, a former national security adviser to Netanyahu, said Badreddine's killing was good news for Israel but stopped short of saying Israel was responsible.
"We don't know if Israel is responsible for this," he told Israel's Army Radio. "Remember that those operating in Syria today have a lot of haters without Israel."
"But from Israel's view, the more people with experience, like Badreddine, who disappear from the wanted list, the better," he said.
Israel considers Hezbollah its most potent enemy and worries that it is becoming entrenched on its Syrian front and is acquiring more advanced weaponry. Israel has struck Hezbollah targets in Syria several times since the conflict began in 2011.
Hezbollah, a political and military movement which is Lebanon's most powerful group, has grown stronger since forcing Israel to end its 22-year occupation of southern Lebanon in 2000. The sides fought a 34-day war in 2006, their last major conflict.
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