24 hours of war in the Middle East leaves region shaking - Seth J. Frantzman -
A raid on Iranian-backed groups in Iraq, Houthi rebels in Yemen attacking Saudi Arabia, Russia and Turkey squaring off in Libya, the aftermath of airstrikes in Syria and Turkey and Iran coordinating attacks on Kurdish militants all served as a backdrop for an unprecedented 24-hours in the Middle East.
The region is undergoing a half-dozen wars at the same time that pit Iran and its proxies against the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia; and also Iran and Turkey against Kurdish militants; as well as proxy groups in Libya fighting each other and various Syrian groups fighting each other.
Overnight between Thursday and Friday, an unprecedented raid by the Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service struck at Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. Iran has accused the US of involvement. The US and Iraq are in the midst of strategic dialogue. There have been calls on the new Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Kadhimi to crack down on these groups.
Kataib Hezbollah, the key Iranian-backed group, has carried out dozens of rocket attacks on US forces in Iraq, killing three members of the Coalition and a contractor. The US carried out three rounds of airstrikes on this group, in December, January and March; and killed Iran's IRGC Quds Force head Qasem Soleimani. The raids led to a protest at the Green Zone and arrests. The full details of what happened is not clear but Iraq may have stoked tensions with Iran and US forces could be targeted.
At the same time a large gas storage tank reportedly exploded near Tehran in Parchin just after midnight, leading to rumors of airstrikes on Iran. The massive explosion looked like it was a serious accident. Iran's media and regime cannot be trusted to provide the full details. The massive explosion led to many false social media reports about the incident, including claims it was some kind of attack on Iran. Iran's Ministry of Defense says the incident is under control.
Iraq has also called on Turkey to stop airstrikes in Iraq. Over the last weeks Turkey claims it has been carrying out operations against the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), but many have critiqued Turkey for bombing areas where Kurdish, Yazidi and Christian minorities live. An airstrike near a holiday resort in Sulimaniyah province on Thursday came close to killing children. Iraq is outraged and wants Ankara to stop. Meanwhile Iran is also targeting the PKK in cooperation with Turkey. Iran wants Turkey to boost trade around US sanctions and has agreed to partner with Turkey to "fight terrorism."
Hamas and other Palestinian groups are also threatening violence over Israel's annexation plans. Iranian media is highlighting the Hamas threats and Iran clearly wants to heat up tensions in the West Bank and Gaza. Iran is trying to stir many things up. It has slammed Israel on Press TV for honoring Israelis involved in a "Cyber attack" and Iran says that Syrians near the Golan are protesting to "liberate Golan."
Meanwhile Saudi Arabia has slammed Iranian-backed Houthi rebels for attacks on the Kingdom over the last week. The Houthis have told Iranian media that they will carry out deeper attacks inside Saudi Arabia using drones and missiles. Both Saudi Arabia and Iran have highlighted the war in Iran.
In Libya another proxy conflict between Turkish-backed Libyan groups and Egyptian-backed Libyan opposition continues. Egypt has threatened to intervene after Turkey's support for Tripoli resulted in set backed for the Benghazi-based Libyan National Army. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Russia all support Benghazi and want to stop Turkey from taking Sirte with its Tripoli-based militias. The US, France and Italy are all closely watching the outcome of the Libyan battles. Reports indicate Russia and Turkey are sending more equipment.
All these conflicts, from Libya to Yemen, Iraq and Syria, show a ring of wars around the region, fueled by regional powers that oppose each other. Turkey and Iran appear to be working more closely together. But it is not so simple because many of these battles are compartmentalized. For instance Israel opposes Iran's presence in Syria. The Syrian regime reportedly supports Russia in Libya, whereas the Iranians who support the Syrian regime apparently back Turkey.
The overall picture is one of impunity, where Turkey, Iran or Saudi Arabia can carry out airstrikes in conflicts near their countries, whether Yemen or Libya or Iraq and there is little that the international community cares to do. There are no peace processes or peace talks or ceasefires. In fact these conflicts appear to be growing. They essentially involve certain areas that are unstable and lack full national governance, whether Idlib in Syria or parts of Yemen, Iraq or Libya. This is a ring of instability. It is bisected by an Iranian corridor that links the "axis of resistance" from Yemen to Tehran and then via Baghdad to Beirut.
Turkey has a crescent of control from Libya to Idlib, Tel Abyad and northern Iraq, and troops in Qatar. Turkey and Iran benefit from these conflicts, growing in control over neighboring states. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE and their allies are not increasing their influence much. Russia stands above it all, working with Turkey on some issues such as S-400 air defense, but also supporting Benghazi in Libya and the Syrian regime. Russia also holds discussions with Hamas in Doha and also with Israel.
The US is seeking to withdraw slowly, but still wants to have influence in eastern Syria, parts of Iraq and with Israel. The last 24 hours show what happens in the long-term withdrawal of US influence and as other powers rise.
Sisi's 'Declaration Of War' Puts Egypt & Turkey On War Footing Over Libya - by Tyler Durden -
Egypt and Turkey have long been on opposite sides of the raging battle for the fate of Libya, with Turkey providing major military support and backing for the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli, and with Egypt backing Gen. Khalifa Haftar.
The situation escalated over the weekend, amid a pullback of pro-Haftar forces from Tripoli after being defeated in the bid for the capital, when Egypt's President Sisi announced from an airbase near the Libyan border that the Egyptian Army stands ready to intervene in Libya on behalf of Haftar.
Sisi declared that if GNA forces attempt to enter Haftar-controlled Sirte, pushing deeper into central Libya, this would be a 'red line' for Egypt, forcing it's intervention. Crucially both Tripoli and its main ally Turkey on Sunday condemned what they called Sisi's "declaration of war".
Turkish state media recorded the GNA statement as follows: "This is a hostile act, direct interference, and amounts to a declaration of war" - in condemnation of Sisi's statements. It added that for the Libyan state, "interference in its internal affairs, attacks on its sovereignty, whether by declarations... like those of the Egyptian president or by support for putschists, militias, and mercenaries, is unacceptable."
The heated rhetoric, and with Egypt potentially beefing up forces and military hardware along its border with Libya, has some regional sources saying that Turkey and Egypt are headed for direct war in a rapidly intensifying situation.
"Now Egypt's president is signaling possible red lines in Libya," The Jerusalem Post writes. "This line could keep the Turkish-backed GNA from Sirte and a strategic airfield at Jufra. The country would be split down the middle. Egypt has a massive army, but it is also an army mostly untested on foreign battlefields."
Tripoli is now calling on the international community, especially the UN, to step in should Egypt's army get involved.
Surveying the prospects for major war between Turkey and Egypt over Libya, The Jerusalem Post explains further:
On paper Turkey's armed forces and Egypt's are well matched. Both have F-16s and hundreds of fighter aircraft. Egypt's army is the 9th strongest in the world on paper with thousands of tanks. Turkey's armed forces are thought to be the 11th strongest in the world. Both countries use western weapons systems linked to the US or NATO. Turkey's work with NATO likely makes it more effective than Egypt.
Both countries are bogged down in counter-insurgency campaigns. Egypt is close to Libya and can easily move an armored brigade or troops to the frontline. Turkey would have to fly them in and it likely prefers using Syrian rebel mercenaries to do its dirty work.
In short, the Libya situation - a country on fire since Gaddafi's toppling and death due to the 2011 US-NATO military intervention, or what many have called "Obama's Iraq" - is set to get a lot messier.
There are already unverified reports that Egypt may be sending jets to Haftar airbases in eastern Libya in support of his LNA.
If so, Turkey will certainly increase its own aerial patrols, which has already involved ample use of drone warfare in and around Tripoli. But no doubt this would give Erdogan greater excuse to get Turkish fighter jets involved.
China's Global Aggression could Trigger War of Gog and Magog Rabbi Explains - By Adam Eliyahu Berkowitz -
"This is what he said: 'The fourth beast [means]-there will be a fourth kingdom upon the earth which will be different from all the kingdoms; it will devour the whole earth, tread it down, and crush it." Daniel 7:23 (The Israel Bible�)
Soldiers stand guard in Tiananmen area during China's 18th National Congress on November 8, 2012 in Beijing, China. Security is extra tight because of leadership transition. (courtesy: Shutterstock)
While much of the media is focused on the riots in the US and Europe, China has been quietly advancing its world domination agenda. But just as the assassination of a minor duke sparked of World War I, the pre-Messiah War of Gog and Magog may have already begun, set in motion by a battle in the Himalayan Mountains fought with clubs and fists.
INDIA VERSUS CHINA IN THE HIMALAYAS
The 2,170-mile border between China and India is disputed at 20 different locations Tensions began to rise on the Himalayan border between China and India in the beginning of May when Chinese forces objected to Indian road construction in the Galwan River valley. Thousands of soldiers from the two countries have been facing off just a few hundred yards from each other in the Indian-controlled Ladakh region.
This came to a head earlier this month when fighting broke out. Agreements disallow usage of firearms so the conflict was restricted to hand-to-hand combat. Eventually, up to 600 men were engaged in combat using stones, batons, iron rods, and other makeshift weapons. Indian media reported that Chinese troops dammed up mountain streams, which they unblocked as the Indian troops approached. The rush of water knocked many off their feet, and then the Chinese soldiers swept down, brandishing sticks encrusted with nails. The fighting, which took place in near-total darkness, lasted for up to six hours. According to senior Indian military officers, Chinese troops used batons wrapped in barbed wire and clubs embedded with nails.
The fighting resulted in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers. US intelligence believes that 35 Chinese soldiers died, including one senior officer, according to a report in US News. 10 Indian soldiers were taken captive and then released and an unspecified number of Chinese soldiers were also captured by the Indian side.
On 20 June, India removed restrictions on the usage of firearms for Indian soldiers along this section of the border.
Despite beginning their new independent incarnation in 1947 wth claims of brotherhood with China, the border dispute has been a large source of contention between the two countries. After a peace agreement was reached in 1950, war broke out in the area between China and India in 1962. After a period of calm, border clashes in 1967 culminated in the withdrawal of Chinese military forces. In 1993, the two countries signed an agreement on the "Maintenance of Peace and Tranquility" along what is known as the Line of Actual Control along their border. Tensions nearly escalated into a military conflict in 2017
In all, China claims some 90,000 square kilometers of territory in India's northeast, including the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh with its traditionally Buddhist population.
India says China occupies 38,000 square kilometers of its territory in the Aksai Chin Plateau in the western Himalayas, including part of the Ladakh region.
China has been actively funding economic projects in Pakistan, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Nepal - India's closest neighbors - which have rankled fears in Delhi that Beijing is trying to cut off its influence in the region.
It should be noted that both countries have nuclear arsenals with China possessing an estimated 104 missiles. Although India has not made any official statements about the size of its nuclear arsenal, recent estimates suggest that India has 140-150 nuclear weapons and has produced enough weapons-grade plutonium for up to 150-200 nuclear weapons.
CHINA VERSUS EVERYONE ELSE
Recent tensions have begun to percolate between the US and China over COVID-19 adding to the longstanding claims of Chinese theft of US intellectual property. Australia, which has played a leading role in calling for Chinese accountability for the coronavirus, has also allied with India in the recent tensions. Hong Kong is in revolt and Beijing's imposition of a security law there has provoked international outrage.
Chinese authorities have also launched a trade war with Australia over its demands for an investigation into the origins of Covid-19, and are in a stand-off with Canada over the extradition of a senior executive from the technology giant Huawei.
RABBI SPIRO: A NEW ENEMY
Rabbi Ken Spiro, a historian and Senior Lecturer and Researcher for Aish HaTorah Yeshiva, sees China as the new enemy posing an entirely unprecedented danger.
"I think the world has consistently underplayed the threat that China represents," Rabbi Spiro told Breaking Israel News. "They have never been on the world's military radar because they have never been directly expansionist regarding territory. They are much more nefarious."
"China has a powerful economy and even greater ambitions. Russia was never really an economic threat. Russia wanted to rule the world ideologically and militarily but China wants to control the world technologically and economically. And they are much better situated to do this than Russia ever was. They have a superpower economy and steal other countries' technology."
"War used to be a straightforward thing. In future wars, technology will play a major role. With the right technology, you can entirely disable another country without firing a shot."
"If there is going to be a Third World War in the near future, it would be against China. But it wouldn't be a straight-out shooting war. The US has such a large military that I can't see China confronting them directly on that front. They don't even fund proxy wars as Russia did."
"They can worm their ways into other countries' technology and infrastructure. Through China's technology, everything can be watched."
Despite the threat posed by China, Rabbi Spiro emphasized an inner conflict as the key to fighting any future conflict.
"We are seeing a major shift in humanity, a major rift in the Western World between universalism versus particularism. Everything is being politicized along these lines. I In the World Wars and the Cold War, the West had a unified front. But now, this inner conflict is ripping the Western World apart and that is what will prevent the ability of the US to compete with China."
Rabbi Spiro noted that the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative was the major weapon in China's plan for global domination.
ONE BELT ONE ROAD: CHINESE GLOBAL DOMINATION
The OBOR initiative is a global development strategy adopted by the Chinese government in 2013 involving infrastructure development and investments in nearly 70 countries and international organizations in Asia, Europe, and Africa. The project is all-encompassing and comprehensive, focused on creating transportation and telecommunication trade infrastructure with the goal of creating a China-based global economy.
China has invested more than $210 billion into the OBOR to date but full implementation will require up to $900 billion of infrastructure investments per year over the next decade. But the Chinese government is resolved to making the OBOR a reality and have incorporated it into their constitution. Some observers see it as a push for Chinese dominance in global affairs with a China-centered trading network. The project has a targeted completion date of 2049, which coincides with the 100th anniversary of the People's Republic of China.
The official rhetoric is that the project is open to global participation and will benefit the economies of the participating countries. But the truth is that China's dominance in the construction sector comes at the expense of local contractors in partner countries. Chinese companies have secured more than $340 billion in construction contracts along the Belt and Road. And the participating countries, many of them poor or underdeveloped, are expected to invest in the project.
The project coincides with China expanding its military. Analysts say almost all the ports and other transport infrastructure being built can be dual-use for commercial and military purposes.
Formerly named One Belt One Road, the name was changed in 2016 when the Chinese government considered the emphasis on the word "one" was prone to misinterpretation. However, "One Belt One Road" is still used in Chinese-language media.
President Trump has been quietly working to oppose the OBOR with a program titled the Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy (FOIP). The European Union supports the OBOR despite the objections of several member nations.
The One Belt Initiative also has connections with the leadership of the United Nations and in particular, the UN's World Health Organization, even though the initiative is specifically focused on Chinese economic interests and has no clear interest in global health. A photo posted on the Twitter feed of Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, as the Director-General of the WHO, inexplicably showed him meeting with Chinese officials from the OBOR initiative while seated in front of an idol of a Hindu God called Shiva the Destroyer. The WHO has been accused of serving China's interests in the recent pandemic.
There are, in fact, no less than 25 UN organizations that are officially affiliated with the OBOR, including the World Bank, Meteorological Organization, International Maritime Organization, International Telecommunication Union, World Intellectual Property Organization, Universal Postal Union, and the International Civil Aviation Organization.
CHINA AS MAGOG
Europeans in Medieval China reported findings from their travels to the Mongol Empire. Some accounts and maps began to place the "Caspian Mountains", and Gog and Magog, just outside the Great Wall of China. It is interesting to note that according to Mongolian tradition, their nation was descended from Magog. The Mongolian Empire once included sections of Russia, China, and North Korea. The Chinese and all the minority groups living in China are of the Mongoloid race, which stems from Noah's son Japheth. Etymologists have conjectured that the name Mongol is derived from the name Magog.
The Bible may also contain an anachronistic reference to China.
I will pour out my anger upon Sin, the stronghold of Egypt, and I will destroy the wealth of No. I will set fire to Egypt; Sin shall writhe in anguish and No shall be torn apart; and Noph [shall face] adversaries in broad daylight Ezekiel 30:15-16
In modern Hebrew, 'Sin' (סין) is the name for China.
RABBI WINSTON: END-OF-DAYS ALLIANCE OF EVIL
Rabbi Pinchas Winston, a prolific end-of-days author, believes that China could very well be the unifying Gog and Magog leader.
"If China was the head of the Gog and Magog War, they would certainly have allies, out of fear if not out of an ideological agreement. I imagine that Iran and North Korea will be allied since they have a common ideological enemy which is 'the West.' This may include Russia."
Rabbi Winston learns this from the explanation by the Medieval French commentator known by the acronym Rashi on the Biblical verse in Exodus.
Yisrael encamped there in front of the mountain, Exodus 19:2
Since the verb 'encamped' is in the singular, Rashi explains that Israel was "as one man with one heart." This is similar to a verse describing the Egyptians.
As Pharaoh drew near, the Israelites caught sight of the Egyptians advancing upon them. Exodus 14:10
Similarly, the verb in this verse is also singular but Rashi explains it as "one heart as one man."
"When it comes to evil people, as long as there is a common enemy, they can act as one," Rabbi Winston explained. "Even if they don't have a common ideology. Even in international issues like war and politics. are backstabbers by nature but they can hold off long enough to attack a common enemy."
"This explains why the left-wing can make hypocritical alliances with entities, like Islam and China, that work against liberal values. If the values are self-serving, they aren't really values and they can go against them."
"The real danger is from America is destroying itself," Rabbi Winston said. "But he damage is already done. The only way humanity has ever rebooted itself is through World War. The final reboot will be Gog and Magog. That doesn't mean a military war. It means also a military war. It is also an ideological battle and it involves aspects that have never been thought of as military weapons. Throughout history, man has only known war. Even if the problem is ideological or theological, it will always come down through physical conflict."
Turkey and Iran work together on Iraq and Libya, is Israel next? - Seth J. Frantzman -
Iran and Turkey are increasingly coordinating policies across the Middle East as they work together on several issues. Their relationship has grown as both oppose the US role in Syria, and they have other common interests, such as trade to get around US sanctions and to fight Kurdish dissident groups. In general, this is a partly cynical policy of trade-offs, but there is also unity in their support for Hamas and also their antipathy toward Israel, which may bring Tehran and Ankara increasingly close on issues across the Middle East, from Yemen to Syria.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif went to Turkey on June 15, one of the most high-level meetings he has had during the COVID-19 pandemic. His agenda was clear: he wants Turkey to aid with sanctions relief and an arms embargo. To increase trade, Iran will aid Turkey on several files. That included Iran voicing support for Turkey's role in Libya. Turkey has recruited Syrian rebels to fight in Libya so Ankara can secure energy drilling rights off the coast. Turkey has sent drones and arms to Libya to support the government in Tripoli against the opposition.
Egypt, supported by Saudi Arabia and other countries, has threatened to intervene to balance Turkey's role. France and Turkey have clashed over Libya as well.
Turkey and Iran have also coordinated to strike at Kurdish militant and rebel groups, with Turkey launching operations Claw Eagle and Claw Tiger in northern Iraq on June 17. In coordination with Iran, the operations aim to increase Turkey's bases in northern Iraq's Kurdish region and to try to cut off the Kurdistan Workers Party from Iran's border. The Arab League, Iraq and other countries have opposed the invasion of northern Iraq by Turkey and Iran.
Iran has begun to target what it calls "terrorists" on the Iran-Iraq border where Kurdish communities are located. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which the US views as a terrorist group, is now coordinating with Turkey, according to reports, and Iran's Tasnim News says that the IRGC is preparing to fight "terrorist" threats from the "Iraqi Kurdistan region."
The IRGC has sought to coordinate policy with Turkey in the past. In 2014, a secret meeting in Turkey between the IRGC and the Muslim Brotherhood, sought to coordinate activity against Egypt and Saudi Arabia. The ruling party in Turkey is rooted in the Muslim Brotherhood. Unsurprisingly, Egypt and the Gulf states, except Qatar, have voiced concern about Turkey and Iran's role in Iraq. Egypt strongly condemned on June 19 the Iranian-Turkish assault on Iraq.
The Iranian-Turkish coordination in northern Iraq and Libya may now be aimed at Israel. Turkey's religious affairs ministry has been telling Palestinians that it will mobilize the "Islamic ummah" to defend Jerusalem from annexation. Iran's regime has also vowed to make standing with Palestinians a "priority of the ummah," or Islamic community. Iran's supreme leader called for "armed resistance" on May 21. Top Iran judge and cleric Ebrahim Raisi has made Jerusalem and the Palestinians a priority.
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