Golan Heights Set to Become Flashpoint Between Israel & Hezbollah

Golan Heights Set to Become Flashpoint Between Israel & Hezbollah - By Sean Savage - http://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=628

 

Well into its fifth year, the Syrian civil war continues to show no signs of dissipating. While the conflict has drawn in a number of regional and global powers including the U.S., Russia, Turkey and Iran, Israel has largely remained on the sidelines. Yet for the Jewish state, the conflict does have profound consequences, notably from the threat stemming from Iran and its Lebanese terror proxy Hezbollah.

 

Hezbollah is in the final stages of launching "large-scale" operations in the Quneitra in the Golan Heights region in southern Syria, a Sept. 5 report from the Iranian semi-official Fars News Agency shows.

 

"The Syrian army and Hezbollah fighters have been working on a joint plan to end militancy in Southern Syria, particularly near the Golan Heights," the report states. "Hezbollah has deployed a large number of its forces at Quneitra passage which has connected the Syrian territories to the occupied Golan."

 

David Daoud, research analyst at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD), told JNS.org the situation along the Golan Heights was "troubling."

 

"Ostensibly, the Hezbollah operation is aimed at rooting out Sunni jihadists from the area bordering Quneitra," Daoud said. "Assuming the operation succeeds, it's unlikely Hezbollah and allied forces will simply withdraw from the area. They will take up new positions bordering Israel."

 

The Golan Heights has long been a flashpoint within the larger Arab-Israeli conflict, owing to its geography sitting high above northern Israel.

 

After years of Syrian-sponsored terror attacks and threats to Israel's north, Israel gained control of the Golan Heights during the 1967 Six-Day War. After Israel briefly lost the territory during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, Israel and Syria established a United Nations-monitored cease-fire line in the region, with Israel taking control of the western two-thirds of the area. 

 

In 1981, Israel essentially annexed the Golan when it extended Israeli civil law to the territory. Now, the Golan is a popular destination for outdoor enthusiasts and tourists, and is famous for its wine production, hiking, and skiing.

 

Despite being firmly under Israeli control, the Golan Heights has not been immune to fighting in nearby Syria over the course of the civil war. Mortar fire and rockets have sporadically landed in Israeli territory as a result of fighting between factions inside of Syria. 

 

While most of these shells have not been directed against Israel, the Israeli Defense Forces holds the Syrian government responsible and has occasionally hit targets on the Syrian side.

 

As the chief terror proxy of Iran, Hezbollah has been deeply involved in the Syrian civil war since 2013 where they have fought in support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's government forces. Hezbollah's decision to involve itself in the neighboring civil war has profound consequences for the terrorist organization both strategically and militarily.

 

Late last year, it was estimated between 1,300 and 1,500 of its fighters were killed in Syria, according to the Times of Israel. The terror group also lost one of its most senior military commanders, Mustafa Badreddine, under mysterious circumstances at the Damascus airport in May.

 

More recently, Hezbollah fighters have been heavily involved in operations near Aleppo in northern Syria, where the terror group has sustained significant causalities, with 26 fighters being killed in June alone. Nevertheless, with the support of Iran and Russia, Hezbollah and the Syrian government have made progress against rebel groups near Aleppo. 

 

Mordechai Keder, PhD, a former IDF military intelligence officer, who now serves as a senior lecturer at Bar-Ilan University, told JNS.org that Hezbollah and Iran see Syria as an opportunity to further enhance their regional ambitions.

 

"Hezbollah and Iran see no future for Syria, which is disintegrating, and decided to do exactly what the others do, take part of Syria for themselves," Kedar said. "The Eastern side of the Golan is on territorial contiguity with Lebanon, so since Hezbollah is on Israel's border with Lebanon, Hezbollah can be also on Israel's border with Syria."

 

"With the Iranians backing them it is much safer than without Iran," he added.

 

Hezbollah has significantly bolstered its weapons arsenal since its last conflict with Israel in 2006. According to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Hezbollah went to war with Israel in 2006 with around 13,000 short-range and medium-range rockets, but today "it could have over 100,000 rockets and missiles, including a number of long-range systems as well as systems with improved accuracy, allowing it to strike throughout Israel and with increased precision."

 

Daoud, of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, said, "Israel is concerned about Hezbollah's build-up in Syria, namely using the chaos of the conflict to acquire so-called 'game-changing weapons,' but also its entrenchment opposite the Israeli-held Golan Heights. Israel calls this it's 'red line' in Syria and has even raised its concerns over this with Moscow."

 

As such, over the course of the civil war, Israel has also frequently hit targets related to Hezbollah, striking weapons shipments or targeting Hezbollah leaders, in order keep the terror group from using the civil war to further grow its arsenal.

 

"Israel has repeatedly taken direct action against Hezbollah crossing these "red lines," by striking weapons shipments to the Shiite organization while they are still in Syria," Dauod said. "They have also carried out strikes against Hezbollah and IRGC commanders - like Jihad Mughniyeh, Mohammad Issa and Samir Kuntar, and most likely also Mustafa Badreddine - who were attempting to build a second front against the Israelis in Syria."

 

While the threat of Hezbollah opening up a second front against Israel in the Golan Heights remains serious, there are also active groups operating in the area, such as the anti-government Free Syrian Army, the Islamic State (Yarmouk Brigade) and the Southern Front. 

 

FDD's Daoud also cautioned that the report of a Hezbollah buildup in the Golan Heights region must also be "treated with skepticism" given the fact that pro-government forces, including Hezbollah, have been tied up as a result of heavy fighting in the Aleppo region.

 

"Just last month, there was another report that Assad would be sending Hezbollah forces southward," he said. "But with the critical Aleppo operation not proceeding as smoothly as the regime and its allies would like, and with their high casualty rate, it's doubtful they would take away forces from that area to send them southward."

 

 

Hezbollah units regroup on Israel's Golan border - http://www.debka.com/article/25654/Hizballah-units-regroup-on-Israel's-Golan-border

 

A large Hezbollah force, backed by the Syrian army and pro-Iranian Shiite militias, is building up outside Quneitra, just 2km from Israel's Golan border. The Lebanese Shiite fighters, under the command of Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) officers, are streaming into southern Syria, armed with tanks and artillery.

 

Monday night, Sept. 5, Iranian state-controlled media shed light on this movement, reporting that the combined force had "completed preparations necessary for an extensive operation in southern Syria," adding, "Hezbollah aims to put an end to the presence of armed men in the area close to the border."

 

The nature of the "armed men" was not specified, but the goal of the new operation was clear: after evicting the assorted anti-Assad groups, including the Islamic State, holding territory "close to the border," Hezbollah and its backers planned to regroup on the Syrian-Israeli boundary.

 

This would position Iran and its Hezbollah surrogate ready to realize their six-year old design, which is to open a second warfront against Israel.

 

Western and Mid East sources have toldl debkafile that the triple army is in high spirits after last week's successful operation in Aleppo. By snatching back parts of the city they lost in mid-August, the Syrian army and its allies managed to cut off the rebels' supply lines from Turkey.

 

It was then that some Hezbollah units were detached from the Aleppo arena and redirected to the Quneitra front in southern Syria to face the Israeli border.

 

Those sources report that the incoming troops were sighted this week when they arrived at Madinat al-Baath and Khan Amabeh, the main Syrian army bases on the Syrian Golan. They came with tanks and heavy artillery. Seen for the first time in the Quentra sector were heavy, self-propelled KS-19 artillery batteries, which are Russian anti-air guns adapted to ground warfare. They have a range of 21km and a firing capacity of 15 shells per minute.

 

The newly-arrived Hezbollah force appears to have set the capture of Syrian rebel-held al-Hamdiniyah 2km from the Israeli border, as its first objective.

 

debkafile's military sources note that the Iranian media attached photos of Israel's security force opposite Quneitra to their reporting on the new move, thereby framing the target of the Syrian-Iranian-Backed Hezbollah build-up.

 

This fast-approaching development poses two tough questions:

 

1. Will Israel lie down for the avowedly hostile Hezbollah and Iran to occupy territory along its eastern border? Israel officials have repeatedly emphasized that these forces would not be allowed to take up positions on the Golan border, a message Russia most certainly passed on to Damascus.

 

If Hezbollah and its allies go through with their planned offensive, Israel will have to consider serious military action to prevent them from reaching the border fence, i.e., an operation on a scale quite different from the small-shot IDF reprisals for rockets or shells straying across into the Golan from fighting on the other side.

 

2. Will the advancing Iranian-led force have Syrian air cover? If it does, the Israeli Air Force will also be involved in aerial combat over the Golan.

 

 

Russia Prepares for Next War - http://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=622

 

In a series of provocative moves that seem designed to threaten war, Russia continues to modernize its military, increase military production capacity, build new atomic bunkers and conduct large-scale military drills. 

 

Russia's recent invasion of Crimea, which went largely unanswered from the United States and the rest of Europe, must be seen as a stark warning of what is to come. 

 

For neighboring countries such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, a resurgent Russia building and flexing its military muscle is a grave threat as Putin gradually works to expand Russia's sphere of power.

 

Though defensive weapons such as fortifications or missile shields are normally non-provocative, in the context of the strategic doctrine of mutually assured destruction (MAD) they imply that the country possessing them intends to safeguard itself while retaining the ability to wipe out its enemies, thus destroying the delicate balance of MAD. 

 

It is in this context that Western experts now view Russia's construction over the past several years of numerous atomic bunkers near Moscow and elsewhere around the country. 

 

US intelligence officials refer to dozens of construction projects with one of the largest facilities a vast nuclear command and control bunker still under construction in the Ural Mountains. 

 

The bunker, which spans some 400 square miles, would be capable of coordinating war efforts far from population centers under Mount Yamantau in the remote wastelands of the Ural Mountains. 

 

Also of note is the new command and control center a mile and a half from the Kremlin, Russia's answer to the Pentagon, that was recently completed and which was shown directing the air campaign in Syria.

 

In addition to hardening dozens of vast bunkers against nuclear and conventional attacks, Russia is also expanding and modernizing its offensive nuclear arsenal and implementing changes to its nuclear use doctrine. 

 

Army General Curtis Scaparrotti, in charge of US European Command, has called Russia's new doctrine on tactical nuclear use "alarming". He went on to say in a recent press conference, "It is clear that Russia is modernizing its strategic forces". 

 

In addition to modernizing an aging nuclear arsenal, the doctrine calls for the use of tactical nuclear weapons, that is to say short range and low yield nuclear warheads, in response to conventional conflict.

 

According to US State Department figures released in March, 2016, Russia added 150 new warheads to its arsenal in the past year while the US shrank its stockpile by 57. Russia is not merely building from past designs either. 

 

Recently leaked plans show submarine drones capable of launching nuclear missiles. Also, a reported new stealth nuclear missile and warhead, called Satan-2, is designed to evade radar detection systems. 

 

Both hint at Russia's intent to bolster its strategic nuclear power. The combination of tactical and strategic nuclear assets is a strong deterrent for NATO that might seek to intervene in the next invasion, perhaps of Estonia or Lithuania, as Russia continues its expansion under the now wildly popular Vladimir Putin.

 

Numerous extremely large scale military drills that simulate invasions of Eastern Europe have become routine. The creation of a NATO Rapid Response Force of several thousand mechanized soldiers to defend Lithuania and Estonia was met with the Russian deployment of several divisions, more than 35,000 troops, in addition to those already taking part in large combined arms drills. 

 

Now Russia has begun conducting "snap" drills without prior warning. NATO Deputy Secretary-General Alexander Vershbow stated that these large drills without notification number about a dozen over the past two years.

 

The numerous Russian military actions point to a desire not only to strengthen its position in the event of war but also to drill for potential invasion as a way of threatening and warning off opposition to Russian aims. According to experts, this needs to be viewed from both an international and a domestic standpoint. 

 

Internationally, Russia is poised to continue seizing territory whenever it can, as it has done in Georgia and Ukraine, and influencing political outcomes when military force is less appropriate. 

 

Domestically, the show of force has given the Russian people a country of strength again. Putin's approval rating is said to top 80% now, even after the recent financial crisis. 

 

In a wave of national fervor, even in times of economic hardship, Russia has fallen back on its Cold War image of strength to consolidate the government's position at home as well as abroad. 

 

The open question is how far Putin will decide to beat the drums of war and test the limits of Western patience before a major conflict breaks out? In this dangerous game of politics, the next invasion may come sooner rather than later.

 

 

 

'Hezbollah, Syrian army preparing large operation near Israel border' - http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Hezbollah-Syrian-army-preparing-large-operation-near-Israel-border-467003

 

Iranian media reports that its proxy Hezbollah has already deployed a large contingency of fighters in the Quneitra area, located between Syria and Israel's Golan Heights.

 

Troops loyal to the Syrian regime along with Hezbollah fighters have allegedly been finalizing plans to launch a large-scale operation against Syrian opposition forces near the border with Israel, according to Iranian media.

 

"The Syrian army and Hezbollah fighters have been working on a joint plan to end militancy in Southern Syria, particularly near the Golan Heights," Iran's Fars news agency quoted unnamed military sources as saying Monday.

 

The sources added that the Lebanese Shi'ite group Hezbollah has already deployed a large contingency of fighters near the Quneitra area, located between Syria and the Israeli Golan Heights.

 

The Fars report did not provide further details on what such a possible attack would involve or when it would take place.

 

On Monday, the former head of the Israeli domestic security agency said the Syrian conflict is entering a highly unpredictable phase, adding that the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah posed a growing threat to Israel despite losing many fighters.

 

As Syria has descended into seemingly intractable fighting over the past five years, Israel has largely stayed on the sidelines, keeping watch over the Golan Heights frontier that divides them and occasionally carrying out airstrikes or returning mortar fire if there is a specific threat.

 

Israel, with historical enemies on its borders, maintains close intelligence on its neighbors and a special channel of communication with Russia to remain informed on Syria.

 

Avi Dichter, the former director of the Shin Bet and now chair of parliament's foreign affairs and defense committee, said Israel, like all Western and Arab intelligence agencies, had failed to predict most of what had unfolded, including thinking Syrian President Bashar Assad would be toppled quickly.

 

With Russia carrying out airstrikes from Iranian bases, and Turkish forces engaged in a ground assault against Islamic State in the north, Israeli officials see the conflict moving into an even more chaotic, unpredictable phase.

 

In late July, Syrian rebels and a monitoring group said two explosions that struck a Syrian town near the Golan Heights were caused by an Israeli air strike but Hezbollah blamed rocket fire by al-Qaida-linked militants.

 

Pro-Syrian government forces, including the army and Hezbollah fighters have strongholds in the Quneitra province. Meanwhile, the Nusra Front, Western-backed rebels, and groups which have pledged allegiance to Islamic State also operate in the region.

 

Though formally neutral on the civil war, Israel has reportedly targeted Hezbollah officials and arms convoys inside Syria several times during the conflict.