RUSSIAN UPDATE: 9.16.16 - Russia: Dissolve US-Arab-Israeli Syria war room

Russia: Dissolve US-Arab-Israeli Syria war room - http://www.debka.com/article/25658/Russia-Dissolve-US-Arab-Israeli-Syria-war-room

 

In another move to grab control of the Syrian arena, the Kremlin marked the start of the US-Russian brokered ceasefire in Syria on Sept 12 with a push for the United States to dissolve the war room that has been running anti-Assad operations from a venue north of the Jordanian capital Amman. debkafile's military and intelligence sources report that the demand was handed down from the Russian presidential office and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

 

The US Central Command Forward Command in Jordan has for three years run the command and communications functions of select rebel ground operations against Bashar Assad, especially insofar as US special operations units and air force were involved.

 

Jordanian, Saudi, Israeli, Qatari and United Arab Emirates officers serve alongside American commanders.

 

This forward command has evolved, according to our sources, into the nerve center of the military campaigns waged by this coalition against the Syrian army and its allies in southern Syria and also against the Islamic State in southeastern Syria and parts of western Iraq.

 

In January 2016, President Vladimir Putin had the Saudis talk King Abdullah into establishing a Russian-Jordanian forward command outside Amman alongside the American war room. His pretext was the necessity to avert accidental collisions between the Russian and Jordanian warplanes operating in Syrian air space.

 

But over the past months, the Russian-led command center has gradually nudged the US war room into an inferior role in the control of ongoing operations.

 

Last week, in the course of the marathon talks on a Syrian truce held by US Secretary of State John Kelly and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Geneva, the American delegation was suddenly confronted with a demand to shut down the Centcom forward command in Jordan and reassign the US officers staffing it to the Russian-Jordanian command center.

 

Although taken aback, the US delegation in Geneva did not immediately reject the demand, but agreed to give it due consideration provided that the 10-day truce in Syria holds up and can be extended.

 

If President Barack Obama submits to Moscow's demand, our sources point out, it would mean curtains for Israeli, Saudi, Qatar and Emirate officers participation in the Amman command. They would be sent home and their governments would find themselves out in the cold in relation to coordinated Russia-US and Jordanian operations in Syria.

 

According to debkafile's intelligence sources, Israel and Gulf Arab military chiefs have concluded that Moscow's move has the opposite goal of a ceasefire, and is in fact designed to clear the way for a major Russian-Syrian operation to seize Daraa, the main town of southern Syria, and drive all anti--Assad forces out of this region.

 

Since most of the rebel groups in control of the South are backed by Saudi Arabia, Israel and the Emirates, their expulsion would eliminate those nations' influence and involvement in that part of Syria and sever their operational links with the United States.

 

This theory gained substance from the Syria ruler's declaration Monday at the Daraya mosque:

 

"The Syrian state is determined to recover every area from the terrorists," Assad said in an interview broadcast by state media. He made no mention of the ceasefire agreement going into effect that day, but said the army would continue its work "without hesitation, regardless of any internal or external circumstances".

Obama hands Syria over to Putin - http://www.debka.com/article/25656/Obama-hands-Syria-over-to-Putin-

 

The Syrian cease-fire agreement that US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced Friday night, September 9, in Geneva hands Syrian affairs over to Russia's President Vladimir Putin and the country's military.

 

The accord marked a sharp reversal for Washington. In his meeting with Putin in China last week, US President Barack Obama did not agree to those steps for the simple reason that such an agreement would be in line with the policy and stance of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, not those of the Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

 

Trump suggested several months ago that the US should let Putin finish the war in Syria, asserting that the Russian leader would be able to do it better.

 

Under the current situation it is no wonder that Kerry and Lavrov agreed not to release the details of the agreement. Publication of the details would reveal that the rebels in the Aleppo area, and perhaps in all of Syria, have been abandoned.

 

The Syrian rebels now find themselves trapped by both the Russian-Turkish agreement and the Russian-US agreement, with a noose seemingly closing around them.

 

Meanwhile, on Friday, debkafile released the following report:

 

The fledgling "initiatives" reverberating this week in Washington, Moscow, Ankara, Jerusalem and the G20 summit were nothing but distractions from the quiet deals struck by two lead players, Russia and Turkey to seize control of the region's affairs. Recep Tayyip Erdogan knew nothing would come of his offer on the G20 sidelines to US President Barack Obama to team up for a joint operation to evict ISIS from Raqqa. And, although Moscow was keen on hosting the first handshake in almost a decade between Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and the Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), neither were known to be ready for the last step toward a meeting.

 

But the game-changing events to watch out for took place in Hangzhou without fanfare - namely, the Obama-Putin talks and the far more fruitful encounter between Putin and Erdogan.

 

According to debkafile's intelligence and Mid East sources, Putin virtually shut the door on further cooperation with the United States in Syria. He highhandedly informed Obama that he now holds all the high cards for controlling the Syrian conflict, whereas Washington was just about out of the game.

 

Putin picked up the last cards, our sources disclose, in a secret deal with Erdogan for Russian-Turkish collaboration in charting the next steps in the Middle East.

 

The G20 therefore, instead of promoting new US-Russian understanding, gave the impetus to a new Russian-Turkish partnership.

 

Erdogan raked in instant winnings: Before he left China, he had pocketed Putin's nod to grab a nice, 4,000-sq.km slice of northern Syria, as a "security zone" under the control of the Turkish army and air force, with Russian non-interference guaranteed. 

 

This Turkish zone would include the Syrian towns of Jarablus, Manjib, Azaz and Al-Bab.

 

Ankara would reciprocate by withdrawing its support from the pro-US and pro-Saudi rebel groups fighting the Assad army and its allies in the area north of Aleppo.   

 

Turkey's concession gave Putin a selling-point to buy the Syrian ruler assent to Erdogan's project. Ankara's selling-point to the West was that the planned security zone would provide a safe haven for Syrian refugees and draw off some of the outflow perturbing Europe.

 

It now turns out that, just as the Americans sold the Syrian Kurds down the river to Turkey (when Vice President Joe Biden last month ordered them to withdraw from their lands to the eastern bank of the Euphrates River or lose US support), so too are the Turks now dropping the Syrian rebels they supported in the mud by re-branding them as "terrorists."

 

The head of this NATO nation has moreover gone behind America's back for a deal with the Russian ruler on how to proceed with the next steps of the Syrian conflict.

 

Therefore, when US Secretary of State John Kerry met Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Geneva Thursday and Friday, Sept. 8-9, for their sixth and seventh abortive sit-downs on the Syrian issue, there was not much left for them to discuss, aside from continuing to coordinate their air traffic over Syria and the eastern Mediterranean.

 

Washington and Moscow are alike fearful of an accidental collision in the sky in the current inflammable state of relations between the two powers.

 

As a gesture of warning, a Russian SU-25 fighter jet Tuesday, Sept 6, intercepted a US Navy P8 plane flying on an international route over the Black Sea. When the Russian jet came as close as 12 feet, the US pilots sent out emergency signals - in vain, because the Russian plane's transponder was switched off. The American plane ended up changing course.

 

Amid these anomalies, Moscow pressed ahead with preparations to set up a meeting between the Israeli and Palestinian leaders, as the Russian Foreign Ministry announced Thursday.

 

Putin is keen to succeed where the Obama administration failed. John Kerry abandoned his last effort at peacemaking as a flop two years ago.  But it is hard to see Netanyahu or Abu Mazen rushing to play along with the Russian leader's plan to demean the US president in the last months of his tenure - especially when no one can tell who will win the November 8 presidential election - Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump - or what policies either will pursue. 

 

All the region's actors will no doubt be watching closely to see how Turkey's "Russian track" plays out and how long the inveterate opportunists can hang together.