RUSSIAN UPDATE: 9.9.16 - Putin-Erdogan deal for Syria is ME exit for Obama

Putin-Erdogan deal for Syria is ME exit for Obama - http://www.debka.com/article/25656/Putin-Erdogan-deal-for-Syria-is-ME-exit-for-Obama-

 

The fledgling "initiatives" reverberating this week in Washington, Moscow, Ankara, Jerusalem and the G20 summit were nothing but distractions from the quiet deals struck by two lead players, Russia and Turkey to seize control of the region's affairs. Recep Tayyip Erdogan knew nothing would come of his offer on the G20 sidelines to US President Barack Obama to team up for a joint operation to evict ISIS from Raqqa. And, although Moscow was keen on hosting the first handshake in almost a decade between Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and the Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), neither were known to be ready for the last step toward a meeting.

 

But the game-changing events to watch out for took place in Hangzhou without fanfare - namely, the Obama-Putin talks and the far more fruitful encounter between Putin and Erdogan.

 

According to debkafile's intelligence and Mid East sources, Putin virtually shut the door on further cooperation with the United States in Syria. He highhandedly informed Obama that he now holds all the high cards for controlling the Syrian conflict, whereas Washington was just about out of the game.

 

Putin picked up the last cards, our sources disclose, in a secret deal with Erdogan for Russian-Turkish collaboration in charting the next steps in the Middle East.

 

The G20 therefore, instead of promoting new US-Russian understanding, gave the impetus to a new Russian-Turkish partnership.

 

Erdogan raked in instant winnings: Before he left China, he had pocketed Putin's nod to grab a nice, 4,000-sq.km slice of northern Syria, as a "security zone" under the control of the Turkish army and air force, with Russian non-interference guaranteed. 

 

This Turkish zone would include the Syrian towns of Jarablus, Manjib, Azaz and Al-Bab.

 

Ankara would reciprocate by withdrawing its support from the pro-US and pro-Saudi rebel groups fighting the Assad army and its allies in the area north of Aleppo.   

 

Turkey's concession gave Putin a selling-point to buy the Syrian ruler assent to Erdogan's project. Ankara's selling-point to the West was that the planned security zone would provide a safe haven for Syrian refugees and draw off some of the outflow perturbing Europe.

 

It now turns out that, just as the Americans sold the Syrian Kurds down the river to Turkey (when Vice President Joe Biden last month ordered them to withdraw from their lands to the eastern bank of the Euphrates River or lose US support), so too are the Turks now dropping the Syrian rebels they supported in the mud by re-branding them as "terrorists."

 

The head of this NATO nation has moreover gone behind America's back for a deal with the Russian ruler on how to proceed with the next steps of the Syrian conflict.

 

Therefore, when US Secretary of State John Kerry met Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Geneva Thursday and Friday, Sept. 8-9, for their sixth and seventh abortive sit-downs on the Syrian issue, there was not much left for them to discuss, aside from continuing to coordinate their air traffic over Syria and the eastern Mediterranean.

 

Washington and Moscow are alike fearful of an accidental collision in the sky in the current inflammable state of relations between the two powers.

 

As a gesture of warning, a Russian SU-25 fighter jet Tuesday, Sept 6, intercepted a US Navy P8 plane flying on an international route over the Black Sea. When the Russian jet came as close as 12 feet, the US pilots sent out emergency signals - in vain, because the Russian plane's transponder was switched off. The American plane ended up changing course.

 

Amid these anomalies, Moscow pressed ahead with preparations to set up a meeting between the Israeli and Palestinian leaders, as the Russian Foreign Ministry announced Thursday.

 

Putin is keen to succeed where the Obama administration failed. John Kerry abandoned his last effort at peacemaking as a flop two years ago.  But it is hard to see Netanyahu or Abu Mazen rushing to play along with the Russian leader's plan to demean the US president in the last months of his tenure - especially when no one can tell who will win the November 8 presidential election - Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump - or what policies either will pursue. 

 

All the region's actors will no doubt be watching closely to see how Turkey's "Russian track" plays out and how long the inveterate opportunists can hang together.

 

Russian Mideast push could hurt US influence... if talks occur - By Bradley Klapper - http://www.timesofisrael.com/russian-mideast-push-could-hurt-us-influence-if-talks-occur/

 

Moscow has clamored for years to host Israeli-Palestinian summit, but even after Thursday's announcement there's still no firm date or agenda

 

American influence over the Middle East could slip a notch after Israel and the Palestinians agreed in principle to Russian-organized talks in Moscow. That is, if the negotiations ever happen.

 

Russia has clamored unsuccessfully for years to host such a gathering and the Russian Foreign Ministry's announcement on Thursday included no date or agenda for the future get-together. Making the meeting even more uncertain: Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas' demands that Israel first halt all settlement construction in east Jerusalem and the West Bank, and release about two dozen Palestinian prisoners. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejects the preconditions.

 

If the meeting occurs, it would surely rattle the region's tumultuous ground further.

 

The United States has maintained a stranglehold over all Mideast peace processes since the Oslo Accords in the 1990s, seen by Israelis and Palestinians alike as the indispensable mediator and only power that could guarantee a two-state solution. But the Obama administration doesn't appear to enjoy that recognition any longer.

 

The degradation of America's standing coincides with its difficulty projecting its vision across the Middle East.

 

On Syria, Washington has pleaded with Russia for a ceasefire even as Moscow advances the position of the Russian-backed government over US-supported rebels. In the war against the Islamic State, the US has been unable to secure a quick victory and is challenged by fighting among allies such as Turkey and the Kurds. In Yemen, the US has lost hope of ally Saudi Arabia pushing Iranian-backed Houthis out of the capital by force.

 

State Department spokesman Mark Toner on Thursday rejected the notion that the US is losing primacy in the region. But he appeared skeptical that it was the right time for such a meeting in Moscow.

 

"We need to make sure that any face-to-face talks have the right climate in which to succeed in," Toner told reporters. He specifically cited Israel's ongoing settlement activity and Palestinian glorification of violence as hindrances to a peace settlement.

 

Abbas has been fishing for the last couple of years for an alternative peace process, frustrated with President Barack Obama's inability to make any progress on a peace deal. He has welcomed a new French initiative that foresees a separate Israeli-Palestinian peace conference before the year's end, but involving more global powers like last year's Iran nuclear diplomacy. He also wants UN Security Council action.

 

Netanyahu, too, is making a statement by tentatively accepting the overture from Russia, which has traditionally pitted itself as the strongest advocate of the Palestinians among the Quartet of Mideast peace mediators. Washington is seen as Israel's champion. The United Nations and European Union are somewhere in between.

 

Netanyahu, whose relationship with Obama has always been frosty, is fearful the US president may try to initiate a new process in his last days in office, or seek to use his remaining clout to wring Israeli concessions, Western officials with knowledge of the private diplomatic discussions say.

 

As a result, Netanyahu has been trying to beat back any new American initiative he might see as threatening by starting a separate process first, according to the officials, who weren't authorized to speak publicly on the matter and demanded anonymity. He has discussed a new track with Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi and floated different ideas to European leaders. None of these endeavors has been clearly defined.

 

Netanyahu "likes the idea of a counter-initiative," said David Makovsky at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, while Russian President Vladimir Putin gets another opportunity to "poke the US in the eye."

 

The Palestinians seek to establish an independent state in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and east Jerusalem - territories Israel captured in the 1967 Mideast war. Netanyahu refuses to accept Israel's pre-1967 lines as a basis for border talks.

 

There have been no meaningful Israeli-Palestinian talks since Netanyahu took office in 2009. The last round broke down in 2014 after months of fruitless, primarily indirect negotiations brokered by Secretary of State John Kerry.

 

If a Moscow meeting takes place, the chances for substantial progress would seem slim. And that also may explain why American officials are tempering their comments.

 

Aaron David Miller, a former Mideast negotiator in Democratic and Republican administrations, questioned whether Putin's peacemaking offer was serious. Nevertheless, he said in a recent opinion piece, the US should let the Russian leader try.

 

"Putin would almost certainly fail, tarnishing his vaunted image and likely angering Israelis and Palestinians," Miller wrote.

 

But he said if Russia can "insert itself in the middle of the game, it would only reinforce the impression that Moscow is a key player and has exploited successfully the vacuum the Obama administration has created through what its critics charge is an abdication of leadership."

 

 

Russia Prepares for Next War - http://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=622

 

In a series of provocative moves that seem designed to threaten war, Russia continues to modernize its military, increase military production capacity, build new atomic bunkers and conduct large-scale military drills. 

 

Russia's recent invasion of Crimea, which went largely unanswered from the United States and the rest of Europe, must be seen as a stark warning of what is to come. 

 

For neighboring countries such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, a resurgent Russia building and flexing its military muscle is a grave threat as Putin gradually works to expand Russia's sphere of power.

 

Though defensive weapons such as fortifications or missile shields are normally non-provocative, in the context of the strategic doctrine of mutually assured destruction (MAD) they imply that the country possessing them intends to safeguard itself while retaining the ability to wipe out its enemies, thus destroying the delicate balance of MAD. 

 

It is in this context that Western experts now view Russia's construction over the past several years of numerous atomic bunkers near Moscow and elsewhere around the country. 

 

US intelligence officials refer to dozens of construction projects with one of the largest facilities a vast nuclear command and control bunker still under construction in the Ural Mountains. 

 

The bunker, which spans some 400 square miles, would be capable of coordinating war efforts far from population centers under Mount Yamantau in the remote wastelands of the Ural Mountains. 

 

Also of note is the new command and control center a mile and a half from the Kremlin, Russia's answer to the Pentagon, that was recently completed and which was shown directing the air campaign in Syria.

 

In addition to hardening dozens of vast bunkers against nuclear and conventional attacks, Russia is also expanding and modernizing its offensive nuclear arsenal and implementing changes to its nuclear use doctrine. 

 

Army General Curtis Scaparrotti, in charge of US European Command, has called Russia's new doctrine on tactical nuclear use "alarming". He went on to say in a recent press conference, "It is clear that Russia is modernizing its strategic forces". 

 

In addition to modernizing an aging nuclear arsenal, the doctrine calls for the use of tactical nuclear weapons, that is to say short range and low yield nuclear warheads, in response to conventional conflict.

 

According to US State Department figures released in March, 2016, Russia added 150 new warheads to its arsenal in the past year while the US shrank its stockpile by 57. Russia is not merely building from past designs either. 

 

Recently leaked plans show submarine drones capable of launching nuclear missiles. Also, a reported new stealth nuclear missile and warhead, called Satan-2, is designed to evade radar detection systems. 

 

Both hint at Russia's intent to bolster its strategic nuclear power. The combination of tactical and strategic nuclear assets is a strong deterrent for NATO that might seek to intervene in the next invasion, perhaps of Estonia or Lithuania, as Russia continues its expansion under the now wildly popular Vladimir Putin.

 

Numerous extremely large scale military drills that simulate invasions of Eastern Europe have become routine. The creation of a NATO Rapid Response Force of several thousand mechanized soldiers to defend Lithuania and Estonia was met with the Russian deployment of several divisions, more than 35,000 troops, in addition to those already taking part in large combined arms drills. 

 

Now Russia has begun conducting "snap" drills without prior warning. NATO Deputy Secretary-General Alexander Vershbow stated that these large drills without notification number about a dozen over the past two years.

 

The numerous Russian military actions point to a desire not only to strengthen its position in the event of war but also to drill for potential invasion as a way of threatening and warning off opposition to Russian aims. According to experts, this needs to be viewed from both an international and a domestic standpoint. 

 

Internationally, Russia is poised to continue seizing territory whenever it can, as it has done in Georgia and Ukraine, and influencing political outcomes when military force is less appropriate. 

 

Domestically, the show of force has given the Russian people a country of strength again. Putin's approval rating is said to top 80% now, even after the recent financial crisis. 

 

In a wave of national fervor, even in times of economic hardship, Russia has fallen back on its Cold War image of strength to consolidate the government's position at home as well as abroad. 

 

The open question is how far Putin will decide to beat the drums of war and test the limits of Western patience before a major conflict breaks out? In this dangerous game of politics, the next invasion may come sooner rather than later.