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Friday, August 25, 2017

MIDEAST UPDATE: 8.26.17 - Netanyahu to warn Putin not to cross red lines


Netanyahu to warn Putin not to cross red lines - Herb Keinon
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http://www.jpost.com/printarticle.aspx?id=503089

Former National Security Council Advisor Yaakov Amidror says Netanyahu's visit to Sochi is important so that the Russians have an understanding of how
Israel will act if its hand is forced.  



Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's primary objective during his upcoming talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin will not be to try to convince the
Russians to prevent an Iranian permanent presence in Syria, but rather to let them know what Israel plans to do if Tehran tries to set up such a presence, former National Security Council Advisor Yaakov Amidror said on Tuesday.


Netanyahu is scheduled to fly to Sochi on the Black Sea for a meeting with Putin on Wednesday, returning home the same day. This will be his fourth trip
to Moscow in the last 16 months.


The main goal of the meeting, Amidror said, needs to be for the Russians to have a better understanding of Israel's concerns and red lines, and how Israel
is likely to react if those red lines are crossed.


"Israel is not coordinating with the Russians, but it's very important for Israel that the Russians understand where Israel stands," he said in a phone
call with The Israel Project.


Israel should not try to convince Putin, but rather what is important is to make sure that if Israel is forced to act in the future, "the Russians will
not be surprised. They will understand what motivated Israel and why Israel is acting as it will."


Netanyahu, said Amidror, who has sat in on numerous meetings such as these in the past, will bring to Putin all of Israel's "facts, assessments and concerns"
so that the Russian leader will be able to take them into account. This way, he continued, if Israel feels compelled to act, the Russians -though they might not agree - will understand why it happened.


Israel has come out clearly against the ceasefire being brokered in Syria between Russia and the United States, fearing that it will enshrine a permanent
Iranian military presence in the country. Neither Moscow nor Washington, however, have apparently been moved to alter their positions because of Israel's concerns.


Amidror did not hold out any high hopes that Netanyahu's visit to Sochi will change that situation.

"We can give them our perspective and I think it's important they will have it, but I'm not sure that they will agree with us about the details," he said.

Amidror defined two issues as of critical importance to Israel in the future arrangements in Syria. The first is that Iran will not have the ability to
build bases there that will serve as a launching pad against it in the future, and the second is that Syria will not turn into a state through which "game changing" weapons -- including Russian weapons systems -- are moved into the region.


"It should be well understood all over, mainly in Moscow, that Israel will do whatever is needed not to let the Iranians build these bases, and not to
let Hezbollah get these weapons systems," he said. "These are the two main concerns for Israel and they should be very clear in this meeting."  



 
Recent actions show that Gaza-based terror group Hamas is looking to restore its eroded alliance with Iran, an analyst from one of Israel's leading think tanks claimed on Thursday.
 
In a policy paper for the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, IDF Lt. Col. (ret) Jonathan Halevi noted that Hamas sent a high-level delegation to Tehran earlier this month with the aim of  "opening a 'new page' in their relations."
 
The delegation, which included founder of Hamas' military wing Salah al-Aruri, met with several senior Iranian officials including Chairman of Parliament and Holocaust-denier Ali Larijani, Senior Adviser to the Supreme Leader for International Affairs Ali Akbar Velayati, and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif - one of the chief negotiators of the Iran nuclear deal.
 
According to Halevi, the ties between Sunni Hamas and Shiite Iran became frayed during the Syrian civil war, starting when Hamas supported Iran-backed dictator Bashar al-Assad's ouster in 2012 and continuing with the Islamist group moving its operations from Damascus to Turkey. However, Tehran is now demanding that Hamas reaffirm its commitment to the regime if it is to continue to receive support.
 
"The Iranian regime is telling the Hamas leadership in no uncertain terms that the Islamic movement must make a 'correct' strategic decision, consistent with the changing balance of power in the Middle East, and align with Iran, which has become a regional superpower," Halevi said. "The fact that Iran is waging a campaign against Sunni Muslim forces in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and other Middle Eastern countries does not - Hamas implied - preclude aligning with it."
 
"By joining the Iranian axis, Hamas reveals its leadership's order of priority now that (senior Hamas political chief) Ismail Haniyeh is at the helm," he added.
 
In Tehran, the terror group presented its positions, which included, chiefly, "fortifying its relations with Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, and Islamic Jihad based on the common denominator of fighting Israel."
 
According to an article published August 10 in the Gaza-based Palestine Paper, Hamas told the Iranian delegation that "the threat posed by Israel does not stop at the geographic borders of Palestine; its hatred for humanity and the chaos it sows affect all of the Arab and Islamic homeland."
 
Hamas also believes that Iran may undermine King Abdullah's regime in Jordan, in which case being aligned with Tehran will prove a boon for the Islamist group's standing in the Palestinian-majority country.
 
For Iran's part, Halevi said, "the renewed alliance with Hamas will enable it to strengthen its zones of influence along Israel's borders, including within the West Bank where Hamas and Islamic Jihad give it a foothold."
 
 

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