Magog Alliance Forming? - Russia, Turkey & Iran - By Meira Svirsky -
http://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=1509
The chief of staff of the Iranian military, Mohammad Bagheri, made an "unprecedented" visit to Turkey this week, meeting with Turkey's military chief of staff
and marking the first such visit of the highest Iranian military officer since the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran.
A Turkish pro-government newspaper called it a "milestone," noting that such a meeting between the two would never have been possible if the countries
weren't making alliances with one another regarding Syria and Iraq.
Since Ankara was forced to make amends with Moscow after shooting down a Russian plane making maneuvers in the Syrian war, Turkey has been towing the
Russian party line in the Syrian civil war - and thus, de facto, in an alliance with Russia's ally Iran.
Yet the meeting was about much more -- more than the Sunni/Shia divide and more than Turkey's surreptitious support of ISIS in Iraq (more on that later).
Whatever the difference between these two powers vying for hegemony in the Middle East, a common ground between them is their absolute commitment to making
sure the Kurds don't gain autonomy and establish an independent state.
The Kurdish regions of Turkey and Iran span the border between the two countries (and also include parts of Syria and Iraq). Such a state would necessarily
be taken out of those regions.
The fact that Kurds from both countries are involved supporting each other over the border has been enough to cause Turkey to build a "security wall"
to prevent such cooperation.
The prospect of Kurdish independence for Turkey is so alarming that throughout the regional war, Turkey used the ruse of joining the American coalition
against ISIS as an excuse to bomb the Kurds.
Now that America is arming Kurdish forces fighting ISIS - arguably the most effective forces to date combating the brutal terror group - it is worth it
for Turkey and Iran to put their differences aside and join forces against what they perceive as ever-growing Kurdish power and world acceptance.
Turkey has much to gain by its alliance with Russia and Iran. It is in the closing stages of securing the powerful S-400 missile defense system from Russia,
and it recently signed a $17-billion agreement with Russian companies to supply Turkey with much-needed oil they are no longer able to buy at contraband prices from ISIS.
They are engaged as well in business with Iran, having signed large contracts with an Iranian company to supply them with natural gas.
No one should be surprised at the increased and "unprecedented" cooperation between Turkey and Iran. When it comes to advancing its own agenda, Turkey
will not hesitate to make alliances even with those who might be their natural enemies.
With Turkey's move away from the United States, Turkey has significantly less constraints in advancing its extremist Islamist agenda. Certainly Iran (or
for that matter Russia) will not complain while Turkey crushes the Kurds, injects massive funding into Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood, and pumps up Qatar in its current dispute with the Gulf and Arab states over Qatari terror funding.
Turkey's alliance with Iran only lends it additional stability and throws more weight behind these dangerous causes.
Hegemony for the region can wait.
Netanyahu to warn Putin not to cross red lines - Herb Keinon
- http://www.jpost.com/printarticle.aspx?id=503089
Former National Security Council Advisor Yaakov Amidror says Netanyahu's visit to Sochi is important so that the Russians have an understanding of how
Israel will act if its hand is forced.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's primary objective during his upcoming talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin will not be to try to convince the
Russians to prevent an Iranian permanent presence in Syria, but rather to let them know what Israel plans to do if Tehran tries to set up such a presence, former National Security Council Advisor Yaakov Amidror said on Tuesday.
Netanyahu is scheduled to fly to Sochi on the Black Sea for a meeting with Putin on Wednesday, returning home the same day. This will be his fourth trip
to Moscow in the last 16 months.
The main goal of the meeting, Amidror said, needs to be for the Russians to have a better understanding of Israel's concerns and red lines, and how Israel
is likely to react if those red lines are crossed.
"Israel is not coordinating with the Russians, but it's very important for Israel that the Russians understand where Israel stands," he said in a phone
call with The Israel Project.
Israel should not try to convince Putin, but rather what is important is to make sure that if Israel is forced to act in the future, "the Russians will
not be surprised. They will understand what motivated Israel and why Israel is acting as it will."
Netanyahu, said Amidror, who has sat in on numerous meetings such as these in the past, will bring to Putin all of Israel's "facts, assessments and concerns"
so that the Russian leader will be able to take them into account. This way, he continued, if Israel feels compelled to act, the Russians -though they might not agree - will understand why it happened.
Israel has come out clearly against the ceasefire being brokered in Syria between Russia and the United States, fearing that it will enshrine a permanent
Iranian military presence in the country. Neither Moscow nor Washington, however, have apparently been moved to alter their positions because of Israel's concerns.
Amidror did not hold out any high hopes that Netanyahu's visit to Sochi will change that situation.
"We can give them our perspective and I think it's important they will have it, but I'm not sure that they will agree with us about the details," he said.
Amidror defined two issues as of critical importance to Israel in the future arrangements in Syria. The first is that Iran will not have the ability to
build bases there that will serve as a launching pad against it in the future, and the second is that Syria will not turn into a state through which "game changing" weapons -- including Russian weapons systems -- are moved into the region.
"It should be well understood all over, mainly in Moscow, that Israel will do whatever is needed not to let the Iranians build these bases, and not to
let Hezbollah get these weapons systems," he said. "These are the two main concerns for Israel and they should be very clear in this meeting."
- http://www.jpost.com/printarticle.aspx?id=503089
Former National Security Council Advisor Yaakov Amidror says Netanyahu's visit to Sochi is important so that the Russians have an understanding of how
Israel will act if its hand is forced.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's primary objective during his upcoming talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin will not be to try to convince the
Russians to prevent an Iranian permanent presence in Syria, but rather to let them know what Israel plans to do if Tehran tries to set up such a presence, former National Security Council Advisor Yaakov Amidror said on Tuesday.
Netanyahu is scheduled to fly to Sochi on the Black Sea for a meeting with Putin on Wednesday, returning home the same day. This will be his fourth trip
to Moscow in the last 16 months.
The main goal of the meeting, Amidror said, needs to be for the Russians to have a better understanding of Israel's concerns and red lines, and how Israel
is likely to react if those red lines are crossed.
"Israel is not coordinating with the Russians, but it's very important for Israel that the Russians understand where Israel stands," he said in a phone
call with The Israel Project.
Israel should not try to convince Putin, but rather what is important is to make sure that if Israel is forced to act in the future, "the Russians will
not be surprised. They will understand what motivated Israel and why Israel is acting as it will."
Netanyahu, said Amidror, who has sat in on numerous meetings such as these in the past, will bring to Putin all of Israel's "facts, assessments and concerns"
so that the Russian leader will be able to take them into account. This way, he continued, if Israel feels compelled to act, the Russians -though they might not agree - will understand why it happened.
Israel has come out clearly against the ceasefire being brokered in Syria between Russia and the United States, fearing that it will enshrine a permanent
Iranian military presence in the country. Neither Moscow nor Washington, however, have apparently been moved to alter their positions because of Israel's concerns.
Amidror did not hold out any high hopes that Netanyahu's visit to Sochi will change that situation.
"We can give them our perspective and I think it's important they will have it, but I'm not sure that they will agree with us about the details," he said.
Amidror defined two issues as of critical importance to Israel in the future arrangements in Syria. The first is that Iran will not have the ability to
build bases there that will serve as a launching pad against it in the future, and the second is that Syria will not turn into a state through which "game changing" weapons -- including Russian weapons systems -- are moved into the region.
"It should be well understood all over, mainly in Moscow, that Israel will do whatever is needed not to let the Iranians build these bases, and not to
let Hezbollah get these weapons systems," he said. "These are the two main concerns for Israel and they should be very clear in this meeting."
Israel's red lines in Syria long crossed by Iran -
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu set out for President Vladimir Putin Israel's red lines against Iran establishing a permanent, expanded military presence in Syria. This theme dominated their three-hour conversation in Sochi on Wednesday, Aug. 23. Netanyahu stiffened his warning with a veiled threat that should Iran or Hezbollah cross those lines, there would be a regional war.
It was the first time that the prime minister had publicly threatened to go to war against Iran and Hezbollah. After talking to Putin, he said to reporters that what is new today is Iran's attempt to "Lebanonize Syria." in the same way as it seized control of Lebanon through its surrogate, Hezbollah. "We are looking at Tehran's future takeover of Syria through its Shiite militias.
if that happens, "we will not remain passive," he said - nor if Syria becomes a link in Iran's overland corridor via Iraq and Syria to Lebanon. And we certainly can't accept Iranians and Hezbollah close to the Golan.
"We told President Putin plainly that we won't put up with Iran using Syria as a military base for attacking Israel.
Putin, in the part of the meeting to which reporters had access, did not address Netanyahu's remarks about Iran's role in Syria, nor his warning of unilateral military action. The Russian president just repeated the standard Moscow line that foreign forces would not stay in Syria at the end of the war, but offered no timetable or guarantees.
The Russian leader would clearly prefer not to see an Israel war against Iran and Hezbollah breaking out in Syria, debkafile's sources say, especially since Russian special forces, naval and air force contingents are deployed there - albeit not in large numbers.
At the same time, he may well find Netanyahu's strong words useful for boosting Russia's clout in Syria. If Tehran believes an Israeli war against its forces and Hizballah is potential, it will be in Iran's interest to strengthen its military ties with Russia so as to gain its military and political backing.
For Putin, this would be a welcome change from the atmosphere of acrimony prevailing for some weeks between Iranian and Russian officers in Syria. Russian colonels have been posted at the most sensitive sectors in Syria, such as Aleppo, Hama, Homs and eastern Damascus. They are taking over both the military and civilian administration there and, in effect, shouldering the Iranian officers aside.
In Iraq, the Iranians seized control of the country from within, by setting up armed militias and getting them integrated in the national army, as Trojan horses. Tehran knows how to manage this ruse on the quiet, without drawing unwanted attention from the powers on the spot.
In Syria, the problem facing Israel is quite different. If Netanyahu shared sensitive intelligence with Putin that he had not known before, he can't help noticing that Israel's red lines for Iran's expansion were crossed months ago, some of them with Russian assistance.
Four instances stand out:
1. Iran and Hezbollah have already set up a chain of military bases in Syria - notably in the Qalamoun Mountains on the Syrian-Lebanese border, from which missiles can be launched against Israel.
2. Iran has already won its coveted land bridge through Iraq to Syria. Bashar Assad's army has taken over whole sections of the Syrian-Iraqi border, and opened the door for pro-Iranian Shiite militias, Hezbollah and Iraqi Shiite groups to move into strategic positions on both sides of the border.
3. Netanyahu warned of the danger of planting an extremist Shiite entity in the heart of the Sunni Muslim region. But this is already underway. On orders from Moscow, the Syrian army's 5th Corps is in the process of absorbing the pro-Iranian Shiite militias which fought for Assad.
The prime minister did not inform Putin of any timetable for Israeli action. But the Russian leader will take it for granted that the Israeli army will not move into Syria without a nod from the Trump administration in Washington.
For now, Putin and Trump are synchronizing their operations is Syria with better results than Netanyahu's understanding with the US administration.
Netanyahu Tells Putin Iran's Growing Role in Syria Threatens Israel -
Iran's growing role in Syria poses a threat to Israel, the Middle East and the world, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday.
"Mr. President, with joint efforts we are defeating Islamic State, and this is a very important thing. But the bad thing is that where the defeated Islamic State group vanishes, Iran is stepping in," Netanyahu told Putin during talks at Russia's Black Sea resort of Sochi.
"We cannot forget for a single minute that Iran threatens every day to annihilate Israel," Netanyahu said. "It (Iran) arms terrorist organizations, it sponsors and initiates terror."
Netanyahu also said that "Iran is already well on its way to controlling Iraq, Yemen and to a large extent is already in practice in control of Lebanon".
Iran denies sponsoring terrorism.
Putin, in the part of the meeting to which reporters had access, did not address Netanyahu's remarks about Iran's role in Syria.
Russia intervened in Syria on behalf of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in 2015, its forces fighting what it deems Islamist terrorists. Russia is acting in partnership with Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah group, Israel's arch-foes.
In the past few months, Russia has been the main broker of de-escalation zones set up in Syria. Israel worries those zones will allow Iranian troops and Hezbollah forces to deploy in greater strength.
Moscow argues its big-power clout deters Iran or Hezbollah from opening a new front with Israel.
In comments published last week, the chief of Israel's air force said Israel had struck suspected Hezbollah arms shipments in Syria around 100 times during the Syrian civil war, apparently without Russian interference and rarely drawing retaliation.
Can Putin keep Hezbollah from Israel's borders? -
Israel's northern borders with Syria and Lebanon were on edge this week, as Prime Minister Binyamin prepared to raise Israel's concerns about southern Syria at a critical meeting with President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday, Aug. 23, at the Black Sea resort of Sochi.
The Prime Minister's Office in Jerusalem noted that he would be accompanied by Mossad Director Yossie Cohen. He has just returned from a failed attempt in Washington to draw the Trump Administration's attention to the deteriorating security situation on Israel's northern borders, where Russian Muslim troops are already in position.
Our sources report that he left Washington empty-handed for three reasons:
1. The White House was inundated in political crises on the home front.
2. President Donald Trump had resolved to cut to the bone any US military involvement in the Syria conflict outside of the war on the Islamic State.
3. Trump refused to hear of any compromise on his deal with Putin for cooperating in Syria, especially in the creation of de-escalation zones for gradually winding down the conflict.
Israel, like Jordan, repeatedly put forward objections to this arrangement, especially in relation to its Golan border with Syria. Neither Washington nor Moscow was interested.
This week, US Secretary of Defense James Mattis visited Amman to discuss Jordan's concerns about the pro-Iranian Shiite militias landing close to its border with Syria.
Both their concerns were borne out in the last few days, when the Syrian army and its pro-Iranian Shiite allies including Hezbollah launched four simultaneous warfronts at Deir ez-Zor in the east, Sweida in the southeast, Hama in the center and the Qalamoun Mountains on the Syrian-Lebanese border in the west - all with Russian air support, often including paratroop drops.
Gaining the upper hand on those four fronts, our sources point out, will restore Syria's border regions with Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon to their status quo ante the outbreak of the 2011 civil war, and bring Israel's enemies closer than ever before to its northern door.
Their rapid battle momentum will effectively override the effect of the de-escalation zones established by the two presidents on two of Syria's borders - with Russian support! Their Sweida offensive has already brought the Syrian army and Hizballah right up to the Jordanian border by circling around the Daraa de-escalation zone - under Russian cover.
This tactic is expected to be repeated in short order in the Quneitra zone which faces Israel's Golan border, even though Russian troops are installed there as monitors, just as they are in Daraa..
Furthermore, as Syrian government and pro-Iranian forces gain ground, the Syrian anti-Assad rebel front is breaking up, except for the Islamic State and other Islamist groups. Some former rebels are throwing in the towel or crossing the lines to Assad's army. The disintegration of the Syrian resistance, if not halted, will sooner or later reach the rebel groups entrenched on the Syrian Golan. Israel will then see the buffer which served it as a security barrier for the past four years melting away.
Even if a Russian guarantee against Syrian and pro-Iranian forces reaching the Golan border is offered by Putin to calm Netanyahu's worries, it will be of limited value - first, it was refused by Washington and second, it is unlikely to be respected. Although Russia is in a dominant position for determining Syria's agenda, it is not the sole arbiter in Damascus. Iran and Hezbollah - and even Bashar Assad - are quite capable of taking matters in their own hands and embarking on a limited expedition for heating up the border with Israel - if only as a reminder to Putin, Trump and Netanyahu that Israel will not be permitted to determine the situation on that border, only their own interests.
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Iran versus Turkey, again - By Daniel Pipes -
The Middle East's great rivalry isn't likely to end
News that Iran's and Turkey's governments reached an accord on Idlib, a Syrian town now the focus of American interests, brings relations between the two of the largest and most influential states in the Middle East momentarily out of the shadows.
Their rivalry goes back a half-millennium, included 11 wars and now remains, in the words of the Washington Institute's Soner Cagaptay, the region's "oldest power game." What does the recent accord signify, and how will their competition influence the region's future?
Iranian and Turkish parallels are noteworthy. Both countries have populations of 80 million. (Egypt, the region's third large country, has 96 million.) Both boast ancient civilizations, long imperial histories, tensions with Russia, and a successful avoidance of European colonialism. In modern times, each came under the rule of a ruthless modernizer after World War I, followed more recently by an even more repressive Islamist.
The current leaders, Iran's Ali Khamenei and Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan, enjoy near-absolute power and both feverishly try to hide this reality under a large and noisy apparatus of elections, parliaments, cabinets, laws and nongovernmental organizations. Both aspire to lead the entire Muslim community, perhaps someday claiming to be caliph. In an era of muted anti-Zionism from Arab states, Tehran and Ankara now lead the charge, with the Islamic Republic of Iran loudly denying the Holocaust and the Republic of Turkey comparing Israelis to Nazis.
In several ways, Iranians lead Turks, but the latter are catching up. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini came to power in 1979 and Mr. Erdogan in 2002. Iran has long enjoyed massive oil and gas reserves, but Turkey recently built an impressive economic base. Tehran deploys forces abroad, dominating four Arab capitals, while Ankara still fights domestic opponents, especially Gulenists and Kurds. Both governments despise the West, but Iran's is openly hostile while Turkey's formally remains in NATO and ostensibly seeks European Union membership.
Ayatollah Khamenei's thugs capture American sailors on the high seas while Mr. Erdogan's takes resident Americans hostage. Conspiracy theories, long an Iranian art form, have made huge strides over the past two decades in Turkey, which may now boast the region's most fantastical speculations. Both became enthusiastic allies of Venezuela's dictator, Nicolas Maduro. As a longer-established dictatorship, Ayatollah Khamenei can allow relative freedom of expression compared with Mr. Erdogan's obsessive desire to control, including what basketball players in the United States say or what travelers transiting through Istanbul airport think.
Their most major difference concerns the attitudes of their subjects. Whereas Ayatollah Khamenei enjoys the support of only about 15 percent of the populace, Mr. Erdogan can count on some 45 percent, affording him a legitimacy and confidence that Ayatollah Khamenei can only dream of. In part, this results from longevity under Islamist rule, in part from difference in per capita income, which is only $4,700 and stagnant in Iran, $10,700 and rising in Turkey.
Regime collapse in Iran is within sight and will diminish Islamism, encouraging Muslims to move toward a more modern and moderate form of their religion. The Turkish government's greater popularity and more advanced version of Islamism gives it greater staying power that makes it the more worrisome long-term opponent. Thus is the Middle East likely to witness a grand switch, with Iran on course to moderation and Turkey becoming the region's supreme danger.
Bilateral relations flourished during the first years of Mr. Erdogan's rule (2002-10), when they shared a Islamist worldview and a suspicion of U.S. intentions in Iraq. But relations then soured, primarily because both regimes seek foreign influence and, as neighbors, they inevitably clash. The civil war in Syria, where Tehran backs Shiite-oriented jihadis and Ankara backs Sunni jihadis, is their biggest but not only problem. Other matters also aggravate relations, such as their supporting opposing sides in Yemen, Turkish installing a NATO radar tracking Iranian activities, and Iranian support for al Qaeda against Turkey.
Tensions have reached the point that Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group finds Tehran and Ankara "on a collision course." Left unchecked, he expects the present dynamics to point "toward greater bloodshed, growing instability and greater risks of direct military confrontation." More poetically, Mr. Cagaptay observes that the Middle East has room for "one shah or sultan, but not a shah and a sultan."
In this context, the Idlib accord looks flimsy and transient. Tehran and Ankara will probably soon turn against each other and with renewed vigor continue their perpetual rivalry.
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