Netanyahu Warns Assad: We'll Strike If You Let Iran Set Up Bases In Syria -
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned Syrian President Bashar Assad that Israel will intervene militarily in the Syrian civil war if Assad gives formal permission to Iran to establish a military presence in Syria, Israeli TV reported on Sunday night.
Netanyahu conveyed the message to Assad via a third party, Hadashot news (formerly Channel 2) veteran Middle East analyst Ehud Yaari reported.
The warning specified that Israel will depart from the policy of non-intervention it has maintained throughout the six years of the civil war to date, Yaari said, if Assad "invites Iranian forces to establish themselves in Syria via an agreement of any kind." Iran has provided significant logistical, technical, training and financial support for Assad's regime and forces, as well as deploying military advisers and some combat troops in Syria. It also arms, trains and funds Hezbollah, the Lebanese terror group that has sent thousands of gunmen to fight alongside Assad's troops.
Thus far, Israel has provided medical and humanitarian aid to victims of the war across its border, has hit back when gunfire has crossed the border, and has used air strikes to target weapons stores and convoys intended for the Hezbollah terrorist organization. But, to date, "there was no direct targeting of the Syrian Army or of Assad," Yaari noted.
The report noted tellingly that this non-intervention contrasted with previous Israeli policy. In 2006, for instance, Israeli jets broke the sound barrier flying over Assad's presidential palace in Latakia, in what was seen as a warning to him against supporting Palestinian terrorist groups.
The reference to any formal Syrian "invitation" or "agreement" with Iran, the TV report elaborated, stems from the fact that Iran and Russia have been discussing future arrangements for Syria, under which all foreign forces would have to leave the country, except those which are present by agreement with, or invitation from, Assad. Russia's forces are engaged in Syria on the basis of such an invitation, and Netanyahu's aim in issuing the warning "is to deter Assad from issuing" a similar invitation to Iran.
The Iranians, the TV report noted, want to build "a naval base, possibly for submarines, an air base and arms factories for precision weapons."
Earlier this month, the BBC, citing a Western security official, reported that Iran was setting up a permanent base on a site used by the Syrian army near el-Kiswah, 14 kilometers (8 miles) south of Damascus, and 50 kilometers (30 miles) from the Israeli border.
The TV report came days after Netanyahu was quoted telling French President Emmanuel Macron in a phone call that Israel sees Iranian activity in Syria as "a target" for its forces, and may carry out strikes against Iranian objectives if its security needs require it.
According to a transcript of their November 19 phone call reported by Israel's Channel 10 TV, Netanyahu told the French leader that "from now on, Israel sees Iran's activities in Syria as a target. We will not hesitate to act, if our security needs require us to do so."
Macron reportedly attempted to reassure the Israeli leader and dissuade him from "hasty" action.
But Netanyahu was adamant, reportedly saying, "The goal must be to minimize Iran's influence, not only in Lebanon but also in Syria... Israel has tried up until now not to intervene in what is going on in Syria. But after the victory over Islamic State, the situation has changed because the pro-Iranian forces have taken control... From now on, Israel sees Iran's activities in Syria as a target. We will not hesitate to act, if our security needs require us to do so."
Netanyahu vowed in a speech last week that Iran would not be allowed to gain a regional foothold. "We have made it clear many times that we will not accept nuclear weapons in Iran's hands, nor will we allow the establishment of Iranian forces near our border, in the Syrian region in general, or anywhere else," he said.
Underlining the rising tensions, an Iranian military commander declared on Thursday that any future war in the region would result in the annihilation of Israel. Ali Jafari, the commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, told Iranian reporters that "any new war will lead to the eradication of the Zionist regime."
On November 21, Netanyahu also spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin by phone about a ceasefire deal in the Syrian civil war and the Iranian presence near Israel's borders, the Prime Minister's Office said. "The conversation lasted about half an hour and dealt with Syria, and Iran's attempt to entrench itself in Syria," Netanyahu's office said in a statement. "Netanyahu insisted on Israeli security and reiterated his opposition to Iran's entrenchment in Syria."
The call was the latest in a series of high-level contacts between Israel and Russia, amid a dispute between the countries over allowing Iran and Shiite militias backed by Tehran to maintain a foothold in Syria near the Israeli border.
On October 17, Netanyahu met with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in Jerusalem, where the two men discussed the Islamic Republic's attempt to establish itself militarily in Syria. "Iran needs to understand that Israel will not allow this," Netanyahu told Shoigu, according to his office.
According to an unnamed Israeli official, under the Syrian ceasefire
deal, militias associated with Iran would be allowed to maintain positions as close as five to seven kilometers (3.1-4.3 miles) to the border in some areas, Reuters reported two weeks ago.
The Israeli Air Force has carried out numerous airstrikes in Syria on weapons convoys bound for the Iran-backed Hezbollah terror group, though it rarely acknowledges individual raids.
Tehran Is Winning the War for Control of the Middle East - By Jonathan Spyer -
Saudi Arabia appears to be on a warpath across the Middle East. The Saudi-orchestrated resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Saudi officials' bellicose rhetoric after the launch of a ballistic missile targeting Riyadh from Yemen appear to herald a new period of assertiveness against Iranian interests across the Middle East.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's sudden moves on a variety of fronts may superficially have the feel of Michael Corleone's swift and simultaneous strikes at his family's enemies in the closing frames of The Godfather. Unlike in the film, however, the credits are not about to roll. Rather, these are the opening moves in an ongoing contest - and it is far from clear that the 32-year-old crown prince has found a formula to reverse Iran's advantage.
Let's take a look at the track record so far. The confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Iran is taking place across a swath of the Middle East in which, over the last decade, states have partially ceased to function - Iraq and Lebanon - or collapsed completely, as in the case of Syria and Yemen. A war over the ruins has taken place in each country, with Riyadh and Tehran arrayed on opposing sides in all of them.
So far, in every case, the advantage is very clear with the Iranians.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah vanquished the Saudi-sponsored "March 14" alliance of political groups that aimed to constrain it. The events of May 2008, when Hezbollah seized west Beirut and areas around the capital, showed the helplessness of the Saudis' clients when presented with the raw force available to Iran's proxies. Hezbollah's subsequent entry into the Syrian civil war confirmed that it could not be held in check by the Lebanese political system.
The establishment of a cabinet dominated by Hezbollah in December 2016, and the appointment of Hezbollah's ally, Michel Aoun, as president two months earlier, solidified Iran's grasp over the country. Riyadh's subsequent withdrawal of funding to the Lebanese armed forces, and now its push for Hariri's resignation, effectively represent the House of Saud's acknowledgment of this reality.
In Syria, Iran's provision of finances, manpower, and know-how to the regime of President Bashar al-Assad has played a decisive role in preventing the regime's destruction. The Iranian mobilization of proxies helped cultivate new local militias, which gave the regime access to the manpower necessary to defeat its rivals. Meanwhile, Sunni Arab efforts to assist the rebels, in which Saudi Arabia played a large role, ended largely in chaos and the rise of Salafi groups.
In Iraq, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has developed an officially-sanctioned, independent military force in the form of the 120,000-strong Popular Mobilization Units (PMU). Not all the militias represented in the PMU are pro-Iranian, of course. But the three core Shiite groups of Kataeb Hezbollah, the Badr Organization, and Asaib Ahl al-Haq answer directly to the IRGC.
Iran also enjoys political preeminence in Baghdad. The ruling Islamic Dawa Party is traditionally pro-Iranian, while the Badr Organization controls the powerful interior ministry, which has allowed it to blur the boundaries between the official armed forces and its militias - thus allowing rebranded militiamen to benefit from U.S. training and equipment.
Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has been left playing catch up: Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi visited Riyadh in late October to launch the new Saudi-Iraqi Coordination Council, the first time an Iraqi premier had made the trip in a quarter-century. But it is not clear that the Saudis have much more up their sleeve than financial inducements to potential political allies.
In Yemen, where the Saudis have tried their hand at direct military intervention, the results have been mixed. The Houthis and their allies, supported by Iran, have failed to conquer the entirety of the county and have been kept back from the vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait as a result of the 2015 Saudi intervention. But Saudi Arabia is bogged down in a costly war with no end in sight, while the extent of Iranian support to the Houthis is far more modest.
This, then, is the scorecard of the Saudi-Iranian conflict. So far, the Iranians have effectively won in Lebanon, are winning in Syria and Iraq, and are bleeding the Saudis in Yemen.
In each context, Iran has been able to establish proxies that give it political and military influence in the country. Tehran also has successfully identified and exploited seams in their enemy's camp. For example, Tehran acted swiftly to nullify the results of the Kurdish independence referendum in September and then to punish the Kurds for proceeding with it. The Iranians were able to use their long-standing connection to the Talabani family, and the Talabanis' rivalry with the Barzanis, to orchestrate the retreat of Talabani-aligned Peshmerga forces from Kirkuk in October - thus paving the way for the city and nearby oil reserves to be captured by its allies.
There is precious little evidence to suggest that the Saudis have learned from their earlier failures and are now able to roll back Iranian influence in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia is no better at building up effective proxies across the Arab world and has done nothing to enhance its military power since Mohammed bin Salman took the reins. So far, the crown prince's actions consist of removing the veneer of multi-confessionalism from the Lebanese government, and threatening their enemies in Yemen.
Those may be important symbolic steps, but they do nothing to provide Riyadh with the hard power it has always lacked. Rolling back the Iranians, directly or in alliance with local forces, would almost certainly depend not on the Saudis or the UAE, but on the involvement of the United States - and in the Lebanese case, perhaps Israel.
It's impossible to say the extent to which Washington and Jerusalem are on board with such an effort. However, the statements last week by Defense Secretary James Mattis suggesting that the United States intends to stay in eastern Syria, and by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Israel will continue to enforce its security interests in Syria, suggest that these players may have a role to play.
Past Saudi behavior might encourage skepticism. Nevertheless, the Iranians here have a clearly visible Achilles' heel. In all the countries where the Saudi-Iran rivalry has played out, Tehran has proved to have severe difficulties in developing lasting alliances outside of Shiite and other minority communities. Sunnis and Sunni Arabs, in particular, do not trust the Iranians and do not want to work with them. Elements of the Iraqi Shiite political class also have no interest in falling under the thumb of Tehran. A cunning player looking to sponsor proxies and undermine Iranian influence would find much to work with - it's just not clear that the Saudis are that player.
Mohammed bin Salman, at least, appears to have signaled his intent to oppose Iran and its proxies across the Arab world. The game, therefore, is on. The prospects of success for the Saudis will depend on the willingness of their allies to engage alongside them, and a steep learning curve in the methods of political and proxy warfare.
Iran Joins Russia on Israel's Border - Todd Strandberg - http://www.raptureready.com/category/nearing-midnight/
The world is normally its safest from Muslim terror when the Muslims are busy attacking each other. The Iran-Iraq war was the greatest example of this truism. For nearly a decade the Iranian and Iraqi military slaughtered each other on the battlefield. After the war ended, Iraq triggered the Gulf War by invading Kuwait, and Iran spread mischief around the around by sponsoring terrorism with its oil money.
The civil war in Iraq and Syria has been another period of quiet. Iraq has been so ravaged by internal conflict, it no longer matters on the world stage. Iran has been heavily involved in combating ISIS forces. Now that the groups allied with Iran have achieved victory, we are back to Iran becoming a global threat.
The nation facing the greatest danger from Iran is Israel. Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards will play an active role in establishing a lasting "ceasefire" in crisis-hit Syria, so says its chief commander, Mohammad Ali Jafari. He also said that there will be no disarming of Lebanon's Hezbollah, which is financed by Iran.
"Hezbollah must be armed to fight against the enemy of the Lebanese nation, which is Israel. Naturally, they should have the best weapons to protect Lebanon's security. This issue is non-negotiable," said Jafari.
Top Israeli officials are very alarmed about forces under the control of Iran being so close to the Israeli border. A recent deal establishes a de-escalation zone in Syria's southwestern region bordering Israel and Jordan, allowing Iranian-backed forces to operate as close as 3.5 miles from the Israeli-held Golan Heights. Israel has demanded the buffer zone with Iran be at least 25 miles wide, but the agreed-upon distances range from as little as 3.5 miles to 13 miles.
The Israelis have a good reason to be concerned about having Iranian troops near its border. Iran is the only nation that has a yearly Death-to-Israel day. It is only a matter of time before Tehran gains access to atomic bombs. When that day comes, the danger will not only be about nuclear-tipped rockets being fired from Iranian soil. Iran is now so close to its target, a nuke could be lobbed into Western Israel by means of a medieval cannon.
The more immediate danger is the inflow of weapons from Iran. As 2017 comes to a close, the Syria-Hezbollah-Iran alliance has made it possible for the first time in recent history for vehicles to drive from Tehran all the way to the Lebanese coast. Iran has already smuggled huge amounts of weapons into Lebanon through sea and air transports. Now armaments will certainly pour into the region like never before.
The U.S. has been totally ineffective in preventing what will likely turn into the third Lebanese war. Russian President Vladimir Putin has shut out Western diplomats on the so-called Syrian peace process. Putin is pretending to broker a deal that Iran and Turkey have already agreed to.
We are clearly drawing very close to the Gog war. The latest evidence of this fact came when Putin recently called on all "large-scale enterprise" to be ready to "increase military production" on a moment's notice should the need arise. The Russian president said the following at a conference of military leaders in Sochi:
"The ability of our economy to increase military production and services at a given time is one of the most important aspects of military security. To this end, all strategic and simply large-scale enterprise should be ready, regardless of ownership."
"Our army and navy need to have the very best equipment - better than foreign equivalents," he said. "If we want to win, we have to be better."
It is truly amazing to have reached the point where most of the key players in the Ezek. 38 & 39 invasion are camped out right at the point where they will attack Israel. When Russia set up permanent bases in Syria, there was no logical explanation for Putin's deeper involvement in Syria. He gambled and won, but it could have easily turned into a quagmire. Now that Iran has announced it will establish its own military bases in Syria, it is clear that, just as Bible prophecy predicted, Satan is gathering the nations against God's chosen people.
"For, behold, in those days, and in that time, when I shall bring again the captivity of Judah and Jerusalem, I will also gather all nations, and will bring them down into the valley of Jehoshaphat, and will plead with them there for my people and for my heritage Israel, whom they have scattered among the nations, and parted my land" (Joel 3: 1-2).
Israel vows to destroy Iranian positions within 40 km (25 miles) of Syrian border - By Shoshana Kranish - http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Report-Israel-vows-to-destroy-Iranian-positions-within-40-km-of-Syrian-border-515209
Syrian President Bashar Assad reportedly offered Netanyahu a comprehensive deal that would include a demilitarized zone stretching 40 kilometers from the border.
Kuwaiti newspaper Al Jarida revealed on Sunday that an Israeli source disclosed a promise from Jerusalem to destroy all Iranian facilities within 40 kilometers (25 miles) of Israel's Golan Heights.
The source, who remains unnamed, said that during Syrian President Bashar Assad's surprise visit to Russia last week, Assad gave Russian Premier Vladimir Putin a message for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: Damascus will agree to a demilitarized zone of up to 40 kilometers from the border in the Golan Heights as part of a comprehensive agreement between the two countries, but only if Israel does not work to remove Assad's regime from power.
The report also claims that Putin then called Netanyahu to relay the message, and that the Israeli prime minister said he would be willing to accept the deal, but that Israel's goal of eradicating Iran and Hezbollah from the country would remain.
According to the source, Jerusalem sees Assad as the last president of the Alawite community, indicating that a change of regime in Syria - at least towards a government less-linked to Iran - would be favorable for Israel. The Alawites are a minority Shi'ite community in Syria, and have long been supported by Iran, which seeks to extend its influence from the Gulf across the region to the Mediterranean.
The source also commented that after the defeat of the Islamic State, the conflict in Syria would become ''more difficult,'' likely pointing towards a vacuum that would be left without the group. Russian, Syrian and Iranian-backed forces have been fighting against ISIS, while also seeking to knock out rebel groups that oppose the current regime. Russia's stated interests have been in line with Iran's in wanting to keep Assad in power.
Israel has participated mostly on the periphery of the war in Syria, responding to fire on the northern border and occasionally bombing positions, including a weapons depot and scientific research center that allegedly produces chemical weapons. Damascus and Jerusalem have exchanged heated remarks as well, with Netanyahu threatening to bomb Assad's palace, and Syrian officials warning of ''dangerous repercussions'' to Israeli strikes on Syrian targets.
Over the course of the war, Israel has operated several field hospitals near the Syrian border, where those injured from the war are treated and subsequently returned to Syria. Some of those who have been treated have been rebels fighting against the Assad regime, leading some to say that Israel is assisting the rebels to unseat Assad.
Rather than disarm, Hamas vows to attack Israel -
Deputy head of terror group in Gaza says that holding on to its weapons is a red line and not up for debate
Palestinian terror movement Hamas again refused to disarm on Monday ahead of a key reconciliation deadline, instead threatening to carry out attacks against Israel in the West Bank.
By Friday, the Islamists are due to hand over control of the Gaza Strip to the internationally recognized Palestinian government, based in the West Bank city of Ramallah.
But the future of their armed wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, remains unclear.
"The weapons of the resistance are a red line that is non-debatable," Khalil al-Hayya, deputy head of Hamas in Gaza, told a press conference, referring to the Qassam Brigades.
"These weapons will be moved to the West Bank to fight the occupation. It is our right to resist the occupation until it ends."
Hamas, an Islamist terror group, seeks the destruction of Israel.
Around 400,000 Israelis live in settlements in the West Bank, alongside around three million Palestinians.
In Gaza, which Hamas has ruled since seizing it in 2007, there are no settlers after Israel withdrew in 2005.
The United States and Israel have said they will reject any reconciliation agreement leading to a unity government including Hamas unless it disarms, renounces terrorism and recognizes Israel.
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has also said there will only be one security force in the Palestinian territories.
The reconciliation agreement signed on October 12 in Cairo does not specify a future for the Qassam Brigades.
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