Earth's Nuclear Destiny - Terry James -
There is increasing talk lately of fears of nuclear exchange. Critics of increase in nuclear armaments are also ramping up their rhetoric.
Russia has been found to have violated several elements of various nuclear anti-proliferation treaties and agreements. The latest is development of a nuclear-tipped torpedo weapon that can be launched into the shores of a country. North Korea is known to be acquiring technology that will speed up and greatly enhance their nuclear weapons capability. They are being aided and abetted by the likes of Russia and China, who have promised to act in concert with the international community to prevent Kim Jong-un from obtaining such technology and material.
Yet with all the illegal weapons procurement by America's antagonists and enemies, the criticism is of the Trump administration. The diatribe is aimed at the president because he has determined the U.S. must play catch-up in the arena of weapons development. This is because the previous president was on an eight-year-long campaign to decrease America's nuclear armaments-thus to, it was supposed, lessen the chances of a future nuclear conflict.
While America decreased in nuclear capability, the other side went on a tremendous building program, increasing their stockpiles and technological capabilities-even while having entered into agreements and treaties that were supposed to bind them to cutbacks in line with America's decreases and those of other Western nations.
Trump's decision to go in the opposite direction of Obama in the arena of nuclear development has, of course, evoked resistance just as has everything else he has done since the 2016 election.
President Trump's Deputy Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette explained at a Pentagon news conference why the United States is changing course.
Over the past decade, while the United States has led the world in these reductions, every one of our potential nuclear adversaries has been pursuing the exact opposite strategy.... These powers are increasing the numbers and types of nuclear weapons in their arsenal."
The president, during the State of the Union address Tuesday, February 30, declared that the U.S. will build a deterrent force "so strong and powerful that it will deter any acts of aggression."
Mainstream news media are accusing the president's actions-increasing the nations' nuclear forces-as reckless. They say, in addition to other things, that he is deliberately bringing the prospect of nuclear war back into the American psyche for the first time since the Cold War.
Those mainstream outlets are almost as one in declaring that it is dangerous for this particular president to have the sole authority to launch nuclear war. But, thankfully, Mr. Trump forges ahead, assuring that America's security, with strength through deterrence capability, is sufficient.
All that said, this is a dangerous world-as our current president recognizes. It is more than prudent to maintain such strength. It is absolutely crucial.
But, in the final analysis, it is the God of Heaven who continues to hold the key to the lock on the trigger to nuclear Armageddon. The Lord of all creation has determined that the most horrific of all weaponry hasn't been unleashed. If one studies the many near-accidents involving nuclear weapons, it is astounding that catastrophe hasn't resulted. Only God's staying hand has spared us.
In 1980, for example, a missile in a silo in northern Arkansas exploded because a wrench was dropped and ruptured the missile's thin metal skin. If the weapon at its tip had been armed, yours truly might not be here to write this piece.
There are still unexploded nuclear bombs off the eastern coast of America. Some were never found. These were deposited there because of accidental drops or aircraft accidents.
There have been false missile launches indicated on America's NORAD radar screens. Those with the launch codes had less than 10 minutes to decide whether to launch a retaliatory attack.
A Russian crew once came within minutes of launching a nuclear strike based upon a false command accidently issued.
The Lord is still in control. He will be right up until all of the weapons in the nuclear stockpiles are released. Yes. I do believe they will be used-practically every one of them.
Descriptions within the Revelation and the Old Testament books of prophecy indicate death on a sudden and massive scale. The effects of nuclear horror on the human body, some scientists believe, is graphically given by Zechariah: "And this shall be the plague wherewith the LORD will smite all the people that have fought against Jerusalem; Their flesh shall consume away while they stand upon their feet, and their eyes shall consume away in their holes, and their tongue shall consume away in their mouth" (Zechariah 14:12).
The kings of the east as given in Revelation chapters 9 and 16 will kill one-third of all people living on the planet. This can be done only by employing nuclear weaponry.
Jesus said that if He doesn't return when He does, "there will no flesh be saved."
Further indication that the nuclear stockpiles will be used is something I heard Hal Lindsey say. It makes sense, although it could result from a supernatural rather than a nuclear event.
Hal said that during the Bikini tests in the 1950s, they put in the test areas old navy ships to be sunk because of their obsolescence. The military and scientists wanted to see the effects of an H-bomb on these vessels. In addition to the devastating explosion causing massive damage, huge chunks of ice, like hailstones, fell from the tremendous heights the nuclear cloud reached. These weighed 100 pounds and more, falling into the ocean and denting the solid, steel hulls of the ships.
Hal then reminded that the last great judgment of the twenty-one given in Revelation will be 100-pound hailstones falling upon mankind.
He believes-and I concur-that these falling on the millions of military personnel at Armageddon could well be the reason blood will flow to the height of bridle reins and for so many miles. The melting hailstones, having fallen from the sky because of nuclear explosions, mixed with the pulverized human carnage, could make such a "winepress event" exactly like God's Word describes the Lord's punishment for rebellious earth dwellers at that time as being.
Planet earth is destined for nuclear devastation, I have no doubt. But there is no need for anyone alive to have to endure that hell-on-earth experience.
Again, here is the divine formula for protection against such a destiny: "That if thou shalt confess with thy mouth the Lord Jesus, and shalt believe in thine heart that God hath raised him from the dead, thou shalt be saved. For with the heart man believeth unto righteousness; and with the mouth confession is made unto salvation" (Romans 10:9-10).
Estimating Risks of an Israel-Iran Nuclear War
http://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=2018
- By Louis Rene Beres -
"For By Wise Counsel, Thou Shalt Make Thy War." - Proverbs, 24,6
For the moment, an Israel-Iran nuclear war is logically out of the question. After all, Iran is not yet an operational nuclear power, and there is no point in presuming any possibilities for a scientific investigation. Nonetheless, in national survival matters, prudence should take innovative forms, and the July 14, 2015 Vienna Pact (JCPOA) concerning Iranian nuclear weapons will not constrain Tehran indefinitely.[1]
Jerusalem will have to plan accordingly.
This conclusion is especially compelling because a tactically successful preemption against Iranian weapons and infrastructures is no longer plausible. Even back in 2003, when my own Project Daniel Group had offered an early report on Iranian nuclearization to then-Israeli PM Ariel Sharon, Iranian targets were already more daunting than was Iraq's Osiraq reactor on June 7, 1981.
To the limited extent that they may even be estimated, the risks of a future Israel-Iran nuclear war would ultimately depend upon whether such a conflict was intentional, unintentional, or accidental. Apart from applying this critical three-part distinction, there could be no good reason to expect any systematic strategic assessments from Tel Aviv. Once applied, however, Israeli planners must always understand that their complex subject is markedly unique and without precedent.
Still, it is essential that competent Israeli strategic analysts soon do their best to examine all current and future nuclear risks from Iran. In this connection, it may be sensible to study what is currently happening between Washington and Pyongyang as a suitable "model" for ascertaining Israel's long-term existential threats originating from Iran. To wit, in examining the more-or-less overheated rhetoric coming from both US President Trump and North Korean President Kim Jung-Un, it appears that neither leader is paying close attention to the particular risks of an unintentional or accidental nuclear war.
This means that both Trump and Kim now seem to assume the other's complete rationality.
If no such mutual assumption existed, it simply would make no sense for either president to deliberately strike retaliatory fear in the heart of the other.
In the past, Mr. Trump has openly praised feigned irrationality as a US security strategy. But such a preference is not without assorted inherent dangers, and could rapidly become a double-edged sword. Most worrisome, perhaps, is that although neither side may actually want a war, either or both players could still commit catastrophic errors during their competitive searches for "escalation dominance."
There are assorted "hidden messages" here for Israeli planners in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.
An unintentional or inadvertent nuclear war between Washington and Pyongyang (or, in the future, between Jerusalem and Teheran) could take place not only as the result of misunderstandings or miscalculations between fully rational leaders, but also as the unintended consequence of mechanical, electrical, or computer malfunctions. This should now bring to mind a corollary distinction between unintentional/inadvertent nuclear war and an accidental nuclear war. Though all accidental nuclear war must be unintentional, not every unintentional nuclear war would necessarily occur by accident. Rather, an unintentional or inadvertent nuclear war could sometime be the result of certain fundamental misjudgments about enemy intentions.
"In war," says Prussian strategist Carl von Clausewitz famously in his classic On War, "everything is simple, but the simplest thing is difficult."
In fashioning a successful "endgame" to any future nuclear confrontation with Iran, it would be vital for Israel's leaders to understand that this sort of crisis is about more than maximizing any relative "correlation of forces" or missile-interception capabilities.
As a nuclear war has never been fought, what will be needed is more broadly intellectual guidance than Israel could ever reasonably expect from even its most senior and accomplished military officers.
There are no recognizable experts on fighting a nuclear war, not in Washington, not in Pyongyang, not in Jerusalem, not in Tehran.
There is one last point about any still-estimable risks of a future Israel-Iran nuclear war. From the standpoint of Jerusalem, the only truly successful outcome could be a crisis or confrontation that ends with a reduction of Iranian nuclear warfighting capabilities and intentions. Therefore, it would represent a grave mistake for Israel to ever settle for any bloated boasts of "victory" that were based only upon a one-time or singular avoidance of nuclear war. It follows that Israel ought never to be taking such existential risks with Tehran if the best outcome could only be a status quo ante bellum.
Providing for Israeli national security vis-�-vis a still-nuclearizing Iran ought never become a seat-of-the-pants "game" - that is, the sort of stance seemingly assumed by US President Donald Trump opposite North Korea. Without any suitably long-term, systematic and deeply-thoughtful plan in place for avoiding a future nuclear war with Iran, a nuclear conflict that is deliberate, unintentional or accidental could sometime ensue. And at every stage of its expected competition with Tehran, Jerusalem should never lose sight of the only rational "use" for its presumptive nuclear weapons and doctrine. That is stable deterrence.
Israel Launched Largest Airstrike in Syria in 36 Years! - A.V. Rauf - http://bibleprophecyfortoday.com/2018/02/11/israel-launched-largest-airstrike-in-syria-in-36-years/
Just this weekend prophetically significant developments in the Middle East have emerged pertaining to a major escalation in Syria and it involves Israel AND Iran!
It is being reported that Iran sent one of its drones into Israeli airspace from Syria. This drone ultimately found its way intruding into Israeli airspace. As it entered Israeli airspace an IAF Apache chopper intercepted and destroyed the Iranian drone.
However, the F-16 was shot down by Syrian air defenses and crashed in Northern Israel, east of Haifa. Both pilots ejected, but were injured, This was the first time an Israeli manned aircraft has been shot down in the Syrian conflict.
As a result, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called for an emergency session of his defense chiefs in Tel Aviv. Israel then responded with the largest airstrikes in Syria since 1982. Numerous air defenses and military facilities have been targeted ( at least 12 other Iranian and Syrian targets according to the IAF Air Order Of Battle (AOOB). Several of these facilities were either in or near the vicinity of Damascus. The heavy fire between Syria and Israel continued to escalate, with Israel promising to exact a heavy price from Syria and Iran. It is very likely that Isaiah 17 could literally come to pass and ultimately the prophetic fulfillment of Ezekiel 38-39 is not that far behind.
Isaiah 17: 1-4 & 14-The burden of Damascus. Behold, Damascus is taken away from being a city, and it shall be a ruinous heap. 2 The cities of Aroer are forsaken: they shall be for flocks, which shall lie down, and none shall make them afraid. 3 The fortress also shall cease from Ephraim, and the kingdom from Damascus, and the remnant of Syria: they shall be as the glory of the children of Israel, saith the Lord of hosts. 4 And in that day it shall come to pass, that the glory of Jacob shall be made thin, and the fatness of his flesh shall wax lean. 14 And behold at eveningtide trouble; and before the morning he is not. This is the portion of them that spoil us, and the lot of them that rob us.
The entire Chapter of Jeremiah 49 deserves tbe examined but note verses 23 -27:
Jeremiah 49: 23-27-Concerning Damascus. Hamath is confounded, and Arpad: for they have heard evil tidings: they are fainthearted; there is sorrow on the sea; it cannot be quiet. 24 Damascus is waxed feeble, and turneth herself to flee, and fear hath seized on her: anguish and sorrows have taken her, as a woman in travail. 25 How is the city of praise not left, the city of my joy! 26 Therefore her young men shall fall in her streets, and all the men of war shall be cut off in that day, saith the Lord of hosts.27 And I will kindle a fire in the wall of Damascus, and it shall consume the palaces of Benhadad.
Just yesterday, it was also being reported that Israel is sending ground troops and other reinforcements to the Golan front. If you look at the map above, this is the Golan Height and one of the most strategic military defense points in Israel not far from the Syrian border.
Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, reportedly stated that war with Israel was likely to erupt within the next few days and this was just last week:
Hezbollah sees the downing of the F-16 as a major steppingstone to ultimately defeating Israel. To make matters more complicated, the air defense network used against the Israeli Air Force Sufa's is controlled through Russian forces Air Defense Head Quarters at Hmeimim Air Base. This means Russia may have took part in the ambush.
Russia has asked Israel to cool off and it is now being reported the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may resign this week due to allegations of corruption. Whether this really happens remains to be seen. It must be noted, the Benjamin Netanyahu is seen as a major thorn in the development of a Two-State solution and that his removal could open the door to a more liberal-minded Zionist Leader willing to agree to a Two-state deal.
These developments occurring just months removed from the 7oth anniversary of Israel becoming a nation (May 14, 1948) is no coincidence at all. The pieces of this prophetic puzzle are rapidly coming together and the 70th Week of Danel is fast approaching.......
Israel-Iran Escalation - Looking At The Big Picture - By Yaakov Lappin - http://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=2011#iFctTO57luyOe6u2.99
A day after Israeli, Syrian, and Iranian forces were involved in a major military confrontation--that left an Israeli F-16 shot down, along with an Iranian drone, and multiple Syrian air defenses destroyed--the dust has begun to settle and the bigger picture is emerging.
The escalation is the latest in an epic struggle building between Iran, which is trying to turn Syria into a forward Iranian military base, and Israel, which is determined to prevent this from happening at all costs. Iran is now trying to set new 'rules of the game,' and limit Israeli defensive operations in Syria.
For years, according to international media reports, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) has conducted a massive number of low-profile military operations, targeting Iranian installations in Syria, as well as Iran's smuggling of missiles to Hezbollah in Lebanon, via Syria.
Israel's campaign has generally taken place away from the media spotlight. Israeli defense planners call this campaign the 'War Between Wars.'
An alliance of state and non-state actors
To make sense of this picture, it is important to recognize that Israel is not fighting against traditional enemy states, but rather, against a regional axis comprised of state and non-state actors.
The head of this axis is the Islamic Republic of Iran. The members of Iran's coalition include the Syrian regime of President Bashar Assad, Lebanese Hezbollah, and other Shi'ite militias, deployed across the Middle East, including in Iraq and Yemen.
This radical coalition controls most of Syria today, largely thanks to an alliance with Russia, which acts as the air force of the Iranian axis.
Russia has its own interests in intervening in Syria, and has tried to douse the flames of war between the Iranian axis and Israel, since a wider war could undo Russia's efforts to keep Assad in power. But Russia's influence has proven to be limited, while Iran is determined to spread its hegemony.
Iran has invested heavily in helping the Assad regime defeat Sunni rebels, in what is currently the world's bloodiest conflict. With more than half a million casualties in Syria, the Shi'ite axis has emerged victorious over the Sunnis. Tehran now seeks the next phase of its strategy: turning Syria into an Iranian province.
Israel's red lines
It seems likely that Iran seeks to send military divisions and brigades into Syria, establish air and naval bases, and flood Syria with more armed proxies and weapons. In this scenario, Iran's goal would be to create a large armed force under its full command, which it can use to threaten Israel.
Israel has no intention of letting this happen. The Jewish State has drawn clear red lines, and enforced them with military actions. These red lines ban the entrance of Iranian military forces and weapons into Syria. The red lines also place a ban on the production and transfer of weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Brig.-Gen. Amnon Ein Dar, the head of the Training and Doctrine Division in the IAF, provided a clue about the extent of this struggle, when he told Ynet on Sunday that Israel has conducted "thousands of operations" in Syria in the past year alone.
Enforcing these red lines requires advanced military capabilities, and coordination across the Israeli defense establishment, with the air force, navy, and intelligence units all working in concert.
Iran's victory in Syria
Now, with the Iranian-led axis approaching a victory against Sunni rebels in the Syrian war, Iranians are losing patience with Israel's campaign to stop their takeover of Syria. Iranian officials have recently warned that Israel will no longer be able to operate freely over Syrian airspace. Israel has shrugged these statements off.
Last week, according to media reports, Israel struck a major weapons production center near Damascus, likely used by Hezbollah and Iran. By sending the drone into Israeli airspace, the Iranians decided that the time had come to respond. Iran wanted to get its drone deep into Israeli airspace to prove that it can extract a price for IAF operations.
Hezbollah on standby
Until now, Hezbollah, deployed across Lebanon and Syria, has stayed out of this fight. But if Iran decides to again challenge Israel directly, it could order Hezbollah, armed with 130,000 projectiles, to join the action. Such an escalation could snowball into a dangerous regional conflict.
This is a scenario that no side seems interested in at the moment. While Iran wants to threaten Israel from Syria and Lebanon, the Islamic Republic also wishes to buy enough time--likely eight to ten years--to try and develop nuclear weapons.
Iran therefore has an interest in warding off a full-blown conflict that would threaten Iran's Syrian and Lebanese projects before it can break out to a nuclear bomb.
The Israeli Air Force has been working on an ability to strike several thousand targets in just 24 hours. If the situation escalates, Israel can use this level of unprecedented firepower to place the Assad regime in existential danger--the very regime that the Iranians have worked so hard to save.
This same level of firepower, guided by high-level intelligence, can similarly be directed against the rest of the Iranian axis.
Who won the battle?
Iran's drone was shot down within 90 seconds over Israeli airspace, likely disappointing the Iranians, who wanted to send it deep into Israel. And while Syria downed an Israeli F-16, the IDF is investigating to determine what appears to be an unusual sequence of events that led to the jet becoming vulnerable to enemy fire.
Israel had the final word on Saturday, because it inflicted a heavy price on the Iranian axis. The operators of the Iranian drone were likely killed in their caravan, though this cannot be confirmed. Up to half of Syria's air defenses and four Iranian military sites were destroyed.
The number of casualties suffered by Syria or Iranian Quds forces remains unknown. While celebrating the downing of the Israeli F16 as a major military accomplishment, Iran and Syria are attempting to downplay the scope of damage that they sustained.
The destruction of significant Syrian air defense systems is a painful blow, and a message regarding what might come next in the event of another escalation.
The Israeli strikes hinted at an ability to do far more significant damage, should Iran decide to escalate further. Iran has no assurances that its own territory would remain immune to Israeli firepower in the event of a future conflict. The stakes of this struggle remain very high. Iran will have to decide if it will again try to challenge Israel's freedom to operate over Syrian airspace.
The situation remains explosive. Israel does not seek war, but the signals coming out of Jerusalem indicate that it has no intention of backing down from its red lines.
Four Hours Of Conflict: Israel, Iran & Syria - By Yaakov Lappin - http://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=2005#WFE9fegqjJK5Btpr.99
In the early hours Saturday morning, Israel and a Syrian-Iranian alliance became engaged in a confrontation that left an Israeli F16 destroyed, in addition to the downing of an Iranian-made drone, and numerous military targets within Syria destroyed.
While the shooting down of the Israeli fighter jet was an accomplishment widely touted by Israel's enemies, the destruction of significant Syrian air defense systems appear to leave Syria and it's Iranian backers in a much weaker position to defend against future Israeli air raids.
Speaking to reporters on a conference call, IDF Spokesman Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus provided a clear breakdown of the confrontation's events. An Iranian 'stealth' drone, modeled on the American RQ-170 drone, took off from the T4 airbase in central Syria, located deep in the Syrian desert near Palmyra.
According to the IDF, this airbase has been taken over by the Iranian Quds Force-an elite overseas unit, used by Tehran to spread its dangerous influence across the Middle East.
The Quds Force has been highly active in Syria, helping the regime of embattled Syrian President Bashar Assad to defeat rebel forces. Iran has been working to build missile factories in Syria, to produce weapons able to target Israeli cities. The Quds Force uses the T4 airbase to launch Iranian-made drones.
Before sunrise on Saturday, Iran sent a drone south towards Syria's border with Jordan. From its launch, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) was monitoring the drone's flight path. IAF controllers watched as the drone entered Jordanian air space, and then tried to sneakily enter Israeli air space from Jordan--as opposed to from Syria--in an attempt to circumvent Israeli defenses.
The drone flew for a minute and a half over Israel, before an IAF Apache combat helicopter shot it out of the sky at 4:25am. The IDF recovered the pieces and brought them back for analysis--providing an opportunity for Israel to study Iranian drone technology.
Next, the IAF tracked the location of the Iranian caravan where a crew was controlling the drone, hundreds of kilometers away from Israel in the central Syrian desert.
Just over an hour after the drone's interception, at 5:34am, eight Israeli jets took off on a mission to destroy the caravan, as well as additional Iranian military targets in Syria. Hovering over northern Israel, the jets fired long-range missiles, striking and destroying their targets.
Syrian forces, controlled by the Assad regime, then entered the confrontation firing between 15 and 20 surface to air missiles at the Israeli jets. One of the Israeli F16's was unable to defend itself against the attack, and was damaged in-flight, forcing the pilot and navigator to eject the aircraft, before the plane crashed down in northern Israel.
The pilot suffered serious injuries, and the navigator suffered light wounds. Following successful surgeries and blood transfusions, the pilot's condition was upgraded from serious to moderate. Both are expected to make a recovery.
At 8:45am, Israel responded to the downed F16. The IAF scrambled a second wave of fighter jets into the air, and 12 targets across Syria were hit. Syrian forces again fired on Israeli jets, but none were hit.
During the reprisal, Israel destroyed eight Syrian air defense sites, destroying a significant portion of the Syrian regime's air defense systems. Another four significant Iranian military targets were hit.
"We carried out a wide-scale attack on the aerial defense system: radars, missiles, batteries, and posts," Amnon Ein Dar, head of the Training and Doctrine Division in the IAF said in a statement.
The number of casualties suffered by Syria or Iranian Quds forces remains unknown. Iran and Syria are attempting to play down the scope of damage that they sustained, while celebrating the downing of the Israeli F16 as a major military accomplishment.
The IDF is investigating the incident to determine exactly why the F16 was unable to avoid enemy fire, leading to its crash.
Iran Unveils New Homemade Nuclear-Capable Ballistic Missiles Amid Massive War Celebrations - Adam Kredo - http://freebeacon.com/national-security/iran-unveils-new-homemade-nuclear-capable-ballistic-missiles-amid-massive-war-celebrations/
As Tehran cracks down of protesters, military rolls out nuclear technology
Iran unveiled a series of new homemade nuclear-capable ballistic missiles during military parades held over the weekend, a move that experts view as a bid to bolster the hardline ruling regime as dissidents continue efforts to stir protest.
On the heels of an encounter between an Iranian drone and Israeli forces, Iranian leaders showcased their ballistic missile capabilities, which includes a nuclear-capable medium-range missile that appears to share similarities with North Korean technology, according to experts.
The nuclear-capable missile can strike Israel even when fired from Iranian territory, raising concerns about an impending conflict between Tehran and the Jewish state that could further inflame the region.
Iranian military leaders bragged the ballistic missile "can be launched from mobile platforms or silos in different positions and can escape missile defense shields due to their radar-evading capability," according to reports in Iran's state-controlled media.
The latest technology could further inflame tensions between Israel and Iran, which funds and controls terror organizations operating along Israel's border. Concerns that this nuclear-capable technology could be shared by Iran with its terrorist proxies are fueling longstanding concerns among the Israelis that an attack is imminent.
As Iranian dissidents continue to protest over the country's ailing economy, the ruling regime continues to invest millions of dollars it received as part of the landmark nuclear deal with the United States on its military technology, specifically ballistic missiles, which are subject to a ban under international statutes.
However, Iran has not only continued this work but also invested heavily in it since receiving the cash windfalls from the nuclear deal. Conservative estimates from open sources indicate the Iranian regime has spent at least $16 billion in recent years on its military buildup and rogue operations in Syria, as well as other countries.
"Thirty-nine years in, the Islamic Revolution has little to show for its decades in power other than growing the country's asymmetric military capabilities in order to continue their export of the revolution," Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the Washington Free Beacon. "The Islamic Republic has considerably grown the country's missile and rocket arsenal, both through production and procurement."
The two missiles featured over the weekend by Iran include the Ghadr, a medium-range ballistic missile that was modified and upgraded by the Islamic Republic
"The Ghadr can strike Israel when fired from Iranian territory, and in March 2016, was flight-tested while bearing genocidal slogans against the state of Israel," according to Ben Taleblu, who has researched Iranian missile procurement.
Iranian military leaders also rolled out a rocket called the Fajr-5, which is becoming a new favorite of Iranian-backed terror proxy groups operating against Israel.
"The Fajr-5 is an Iranian rocket that has been proliferated to anti-Israel groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. It can travel up to 75 km, and is therefore a long-range artillery rocket. It uses solid fuel for propulsion," Ben Taleblu explained. "Both the Qadr missile and Fajr rocket represents Iran's commitment to developing stand-off weaponry that it uses for purposes of deterrence and coercion."
The new weaponry could fuel ongoing efforts by Congress to crackdown on Iran's continued proliferation of ballistic missile technology, a large part of which has been incubated by the North Korean regime, which continues to have a technology-sharing agreement with Tehran.
Iran already has the region's largest arsenal of ballistic missiles and is seeking to continue building this technology.
The Trump administration has said that any effort to fix the nuclear deal with Iran must focus on constricting the regime's access to ballistic missile technology.
Russia's Syrian Conundrum - By Zvi Mazel -
Last Saturday's flare-up following the downing of an Iranian drone over Israeli territory brings Russia's regional predicament into full view.
Moscow's planes and air defenses did not take part in the fighting. Can Russian President Vladimir Putin remain neutral should another Iranian provocation lead to an additional, perhaps stronger Israeli response? Had Russia taken into consideration the long-range implications of its intervention in Syria?
On the one hand, Russia has reached its main objective-setting up naval and air bases on the Mediterranean, and regaining its position as a major world power rivaling the strength of the U.S. On the other hand, the Kremlin is floundering in the quagmire of Syria's civil war.
The conflicting regional interests between Russia and Israel, despite the otherwise positive relations between Putin and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is only one aspect of the problem.
Syria has become the playing field of major Muslim and Arab countries, such as Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, who are all bent on furthering long-range strategic plans threatening the integrity and stability of Syria-and Russia's continuing presence there. Iran is making an all-out effort to establish itself in the country, threaten Israel and pursue its dream of a Shi'a crescent in the Middle East.
Turkey is determined to prevent the creation of a Kurdish autonomous zone in Syria, which would encourage Turkey's PKK party to renew its quest for autonomy.
The war against Islamic State, meanwhile, is far from over. Though it was Russian firepower that turned the tide and saved President Bashar al-Assad's regime from defeat in the civil war, recent political and military developments have shown that Russia can no longer guarantee the regime's stability.
Nevertheless, Putin knows that he must keep on bolstering Assad, a man responsible for the death of half a million of his own people, and guilty of heinous war crimes such as using chemical weapons, in the dwindling hope of achieving an elusive political solution.
It must be remembered that it was President Barack Obama's stated intent to disengage from the Middle East, and his refusal to arm and train opposition forces in the first stage of the Syrian Civil War that created the political vacuum which drew in other powers. Obama, bent on negotiating a nuclear deal with Tehran, turned a blind eye to Iran's encroachments in Syria and even reneged on his pledge to intervene should Assad use chemical weapons.
Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia had been absent from the Middle East, and Putin seized the opportunity to make a comeback. Though he had significant successes, such as setting up air and naval bases, he may live to rue the day. He will be hard-pressed to boast of a victory in time for the March 18 Russian presidential election.
Successive efforts to draft the map of a new Syria have failed dismally. The Astana forum, convened with Turkey and Iran, aimed at bringing together Assad and opposition forces as well as acknowledging the hegemony of the convening powers.
It was a transparent effort to sideline the U.N., which had initiated the so-called Geneva process based on Security Council Resolution 2254 of December 2015. Despite opposition forces' unhappiness with Turkish and Iranian involvement, an agreement was reached, and four de-escalation zones were established where no military operations would be permitted and civilian populations could return.
Opposition forces soon complained that Russian and Syrian forces, as well as Turkish troops, were blatantly violating the agreement, and they withdrew from the deal. In December 2017, at a new Astana meeting, Russia concluded that that track was dead and convened a "Congress of the Syrian People" in Sochi. Held from Jan. 29-30, it was another failure.
There was no representation of Sunni opposition groups among the 1,600 participants allegedly representing all political forces; nor were there Kurds present, since Turkey had launched an attack of their stronghold of Afrin.
Russia-which had allied itself with the Kurds as long as they were assisting Russian-Iranian-Turkish efforts in the fight against Islamic State-made no move to help. Sochi turned into a farce when opposition groups backed by Turkey, offended by huge posters glorifying Assad, refused to leave the airport and returned to Syria.
Only Assad's supporters remained. Unwilling to admit that he found himself bereft of options, Putin invited Turkey and Iran to a tripartite meeting on a still unspecified date to decide "on their next steps."
Meanwhile, Putin would be hard-pressed to make good on the promise to bring back most of his troops that he made last December on a visit to his Syrian Khmeimim air base. Not only is there no political deal in sight, but the military situation is degrading quickly. Rebel forces are still holding Idlib and Ghouta, though Russian and Syrian planes ceaselessly bomb civilian areas, at times using chemical weapons such as chlorine gas. Syrian ground forces, backed by their Hezbollah allies and by Iranian militias, are not progressing.
An attempt by Syrian troops to attack the Syrian Democratic Forces-comprised mainly of fighters from the YPG Kurdish militias-in the Deir ez-Zor area was met with a strong response. Planes of the American-led coalition killed at least a hundred soldiers.
Rebel opposition forces show no sign of weakening. In the last few weeks, they have downed a Russian Sukhoi plane and have sent drones to bomb the two Russian bases. The drones were shot down, but the battle is far from over.
In northern Syria the Syrian Democratic Forces, backed by America, has defeated Islamic State and now controls some 30,000 square kilometers from the Turkish to Iraqi borders. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson stated on Jan. 17 that there was no plan to end the American presence there and to return the area to the central Syrian government until a stable regime is formed.
With no clear political or military solution in sight, Russia has no choice but to continue backing Assad and keeping significant forces in Syria. It can neither drive Iran out of Syria nor stop Turkey's offensive against the Kurds.
Russian planes helping Assad in his wholesale slaughter of fighters and civilians are fostering a deep-seated hatred that may trigger guerrilla operations against Russian troops, leading to growing dissatisfaction in Russia. And now, there is the added threat of a full-blown confrontation between Israel and Iran through its Syrian proxy.
Israel Is Fighting A Five-Front War - By Yochanan Visser -
Israelis used to talk about the "next war" and are familiar with warnings about imminent threats to the existence of the Jewish state or, alternately, theories which offer a "solution" to our hundred-year-old conflict with the Arabs. Often, the various theories are based on wishful thinking or on Einstein"s definition of insanity.
If Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu was to hold a "State of the Nation" address in the Knesset today, he would most likely say Israel is strong, thriving and flourishing. He would add that he has managed to keep Israel out of the Middle Eastern quagmire once called "The Arab Spring" which has devastated countries and contributed to the rise of ISIS and Iran in the region.
In short, Israel appears enjoying a "quiet" period, that"s the general line of thinking.
There"s more than meets the eye, however, and an assessment of the reality on the ground shows a very different picture and makes clear that Israel is already engaged in a war, a covert one.
One could call it a "low-intensity conflict" but the fact is no day passes by without news which supports the conclusion that the IDF is fighting an asymmetrical war against implacable foes on five fronts.
Over the last year we have witnessed the heating up of the northern border in both Syria and Lebanon, an uptick in Palestinian terror attacks, a renewal of rocket fire from Gaza, continuing attempts to infiltrate Israel via so-called terror tunnels and most recently a sharp increase in attempts to attack the Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria.
For example, in Gush Etzion, the largest bloc of Jewish communities in Judea, there were three attempts by Arabs to infiltrate the city of Efrat and Carmei Tzur, a small Jewish village along Road 60 to Hevron, this over the past month alone.
In all cases, local security and emergency teams managed to foil the terror attacks, but it is an indication that terrorists are heeding Fatah"s recent call to attack "settlers", meaning Jews living in Judea and Samaria, the biblical heartland of Israel.
Then there is Gaza, where Hamas again allows rocket fire against villages and towns in southern Israel and continues to organize infiltration attempts via tunnels and the security fence surrounding the enclave.
The worsening of the humanitarian situation in Gaza could easily spark a new conflict with Israel according to Israeli security experts, and Hamas is reportedly again preparing for war as a way-out of its self-created Gazan swamp.
Over the past few days, Hamas-leader Yahya Sinwar has raised the level of alert among the various Palestinian terror groups in the Gaza Strip and has moved the command echelon to underground facilities. He thinks Israel intends to launch a pre-emptive assault on Gaza within the next few days.
Sinwar ordered the measures after the IDF stepped up its retaliatory attacks against Hamas targets in the Gaza strip and because he mistook a joint American-Israeli drill and an exercise by the IDF"s Paratroopers Brigade as preparation for imminent war.
In reality, the joint American-Israeli drill, dubbed Juniper Cobra, is a biennial exercise which will this year focus on missile defense in a two-front scenario, while the Paratrooper drill could be a preparation for military action against Iran and its proxies.
Another front where Israel is fighting a covert war is the Sinai Peninsula in Egypt where Wilayat Sinai, the local ISIS branch, continues to pose a serious threat not only to the regime of President el-Sisi but also to the Jewish State.
The New York Times reported on Saturday that Israel has carried out airstrikes on positions of Wilayat Sinai a hundred times.
The Israeli intervention in Sinai was coordinated with the el-Sisi regime, according to the NYT, and started after the ISIS affiliate downed a Russian civilian plane in northern Sinai in 2015, killing all aboard.
The Israeli Air Force (IAF) uses drones and unmarked helicopters and warplanes in the campaign against Wilayat Sinai, which formerly operated under the name Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis.
The NYT report, which was based on intelligence obtained from unnamed American officials, formed the first concrete evidence of the changing relationship between moderate Arab countries and Israel. This relationship is now based on the idea of the "enemy of my enemy is my friend".
Most attention in Israel, however, went to developments along the two northern fronts last week.
On the Syrian Golan Heights, the Iranian-Russian-backed pro-Assad coalition launched an offensive against the ISIS-affiliated Jaysh Khaled bin al-Walid militia, which still controls a pocket of territory near the Yarmouk river.
According to citizen-reporters in the area and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), the IDF was also involved in the battle and launched rockets at the ISIS affiliate. SOHR later erased the report about Israel"s intervention.
The Syrian army offensive against the Jihadists on the southern Golan comes after Assad"s forces re-conquered an area adjacent to the Druse town of Khader and the demilitarized zone near Mount Hermon in northwest Israel.
The fifth front were Israel is facing huge challenges is Lebanon, as became apparent last week when Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman warned that Lebanese residents of Beirut would spend a lot of time in bomb shelters whenever Hezbollah and its allies dared to launch rockets at Tel Aviv and other Israeli population centers.
Liberman made his remarks after Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu traveled to Moscow to discuss the growing Iranian threat via Hezbollah in Lebanon with Russian president Vladimir Putin.
Netanyahu reportedly shared intelligence with Putin which proved Iran is building missile production facilities in Lebanon, and works on the production of advanced missile guidance systems which can convert crude rockets into precision weapons.
These guided missiles form a strategic threat to Israel, and this is the reason the government in Jerusalem embarked on yet another diplomatic offensive to draw attention to the growing Iranian threat against the Jewish state from Lebanon and Syria.
The urgency of the matter was further underlined by a rather unusual action by IDF spokesman Brig.-Gen. Ronen Manelis who wrote an open letter to the Lebanese people. In the letter, he warned of danger to the entire future of Lebanon because of "the takeover of those who take their orders from Tehran."
The latest diplomatic offensive by the Netanyahu government to draw international attention to Iran"s encroachment on Israel"s northern border via Hezbollah and Shiite militias in Syria which operate under the command of Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), is doomed to fail.
While the Americans recently targeted Hezbollah by imposing new sanctions on the terror organization, they still support the Lebanese army despite evidence it has become another Iranian division controlled by Hezbollah.
The European countries are even worse and in the main, still view Hezbollah as an umbrella organization with a banned military arm and a legitimate political division. As a result, Hezbollah is able to operate freely in most European countries, recruiting new members and raising funds.
Israeli experts such as Dr. Ely Karmon of the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism in Herzliya now advocate another approach, in which Israel takes Iran directly to task about its belligerent activities in Syria and Lebanon.
Karmon says Israel"s deterrence policy in Lebanon is not working because Iran and Hezbollah are not impressed by threats to destroy Lebanon"s infrastructure or the prospect Lebanese citizens will have to spend time in shelters in a possible future conflict.
Karmon recalled how Iran finally gave in during the eight years it was at war with Iraq.
"It should be remembered that the decision of Ayatollah Khomeini to accept the end of the eight-year Iraq-Iran war in 1988 came only after a wave of deadly missile bombings of Iran"s capital," Karmon said.
"Israel should threaten Tehran directly," he asserted.
Waking up to the Iranian threat - David M. Weinberg - http://www.jpost.com/printarticle.aspx?id=542779
Iran is threatening Israel with war and destruction.
Perusing global media coverage of the sharp skirmish on our northern border last weekend, I was struck by the fact that few outlets focused on the Iranian aggression. Instead, the story was played out as a clash between Israel and Syria.
This is a serious mistake. It is an error in analysis that belies a deeper and more dangerous trend, which is the tendency of Western observers to ignore the root of so much evil in the region: Iran.
It continually surprises me that public figures I meet here, visiting from North America and Europe, are truly not aware of the scope of Iranian muckraking and troublemaking in the region. Generally, they know that there are bad actors at play here, from al-Qaida and ISIS to Hezbollah, but they don't have a comprehensive picture of Iranian belligerence and ambition, or the transformative, tectonic threat of Iran to Middle East stability.
If anything, they often think that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (former US president Barack Obama's nuclear deal) has shunted concerns about Iran to the back-burner, and that the ayatollahs are now placidly focusing on rebuilding their society and economy.
But, of course, nothing could be further from the truth. The Islamic Republic is on an aggressive march across the Middle East, presenting significant security challenges to Israel, to moderate Sunni Arab countries, and to Western interests. Iran does not hide its overarching revolutionary ambitions: to export its brand of radical Islamism globally, to dominate the region, and to destroy Israel.
So, for the purposes of briefing those who haven't been paying sufficient attention, here is a summary of the treacherous Iranian record: Iran is carving out a corridor of control - a Shi'ite land bridge - stretching from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea, including major parts of Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, under the control of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and its Quds Force, various Shi'ite militias, and the Hezbollah organization. This corridor gives Iran a broad strategic base for aggression across the region.
Iran is establishing air and naval bases on the Mediterranean and Red seas, and especially in Syria, in order to project regional power. It has also stepped-up its harassment of international shipping and Western naval operations in the Persian Gulf.
Iran is inserting militia forces into many regional conflicts, including support for the Houthi rebels in the Yemeni civil war. It seeks control of the Horn of Africa and the entrance to the Red Sea - a critical strategic choke point on international shipping.
Iran is fomenting subversion in Middle East countries that are Western allies, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan. It is particularly focused on destabilizing the Hashemite regime in Jordan in order to gain access to Israel's longest border (its border with Jordan) and from there to penetrate Israel's heartland.
Iran is arming guerrilla armies on Israel's northern border (Hezbollah), southern border (Hamas and Islamic Jihad), and terrorist undergrounds in the West Bank. It has equipped Hezbollah with an arsenal of more than 150,000 missiles and rockets aimed at Israel, and supplied Hamas with the arms and rockets that fueled three military confrontations with Israel over the past decade.
Iran is sponsoring terrorism against Western, Israeli and Jewish targets around the world, including unambiguous funding, logistical support, planning and personnel for terrorist attacks that span the globe - from Buenos Aires to Burgas. Iran maintains an active terrorist network of proxies, agents and sleeper cells worldwide.
Iran is building a long-term nuclear military option, under the cover of the 2015 nuclear deal; an agreement that expires within a decade and which legitimizes Iranian uranium enrichment and advanced nuclear research as it sunsets.
Iran is developing a formidable long-range missile arsenal of great technological variability, including solid and liquid propellant ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. The latest Iranian missile, called the Khorramshahr, seems to be based on the North Korean BM-25 missile with a range of 3,500 km. The Iranian ballistic missile program is in violation of United Nations Security Council prohibitions.
Iran is threatening Israel with war and destruction. The supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, regularly refers to Israel as a cancerous tumor in the Middle East that must be removed, and speaks of the complete liberation of Palestine (meaning, the destruction of Israel) through jihad.
Israel and Iran have essentially been in a war of stealth since the early 1980s (when Hezbollah was formed), but now Iranian generals and military forces have decamped on Israel's border with Syria and have moved to direct and open military confrontation with Israel. Last weekend, the Iranian military launched an attack drone from Syria on a spy mission into Israel, and commanded the antiaircraft batteries that subsequently fired on Israeli jets (and hit a $50 million F-16I - the first Israeli jet felled by enemy fire in 30 years).
With the weakening of ISIS, the growing strength of Russia in Syria, and the continuing retraction of American involvement in the region, Iran apparently feels emboldened enough to escalate its confrontation with Israel.
Iran is also confident enough to continue to oppress its own people, with no regard for human rights or free speech. It had no problem putting down large anti-corruption protests that erupted this winter, and the ayatollahs continue to hunt down and assassinate critics of the regime abroad, too.
It is time to pay attention to the grave Iranian threat to us all.
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