Lebanon At The Crossroads: Israel & Hezbollah Prepare For Next Conflict - By Jacques Neriah -
At first glance, Hezbollah's silence and its lack of response to Israel's exposure of its attack tunnels during December 2018 seem very surprising. Israel considers the discovery of the tunnels to be a major blow to Hezbollah's strategy. The terror organization intended to take Israel by surprise by using the tunnels to invade the Upper Galilee or parts of it, leading to a major military confrontation with Israel.
For the time being, Hezbollah's leaders, and particularly its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, have chosen to refrain from making any significant comments. Instead, they prefer to respond to the Israeli excavations with ongoing arrogant press coverage intended to ridicule Israel. At the same time, they are keeping a watchful eye on Israeli activities and they claim that as long as Israel continues to drill on its side of the border, there will not be any Hezbollah response.
While Hezbollah's belief that Israel is deterred by the organization's capabilities may explain the lack of reaction from Hezbollah, another reason for the silence may be that Hezbollah is focusing its efforts to uncover the sources (human or otherwise) that enabled Israel to find out about its strategic war plan and complete network of attack tunnels.
The excavation and deployment of these tunnels cost Hezbollah years of human effort and millions of dollars. Yet another possible reason could be that Hezbollah is attempting to understand the timing of the Israeli diplomatic offensive and the implications of uncovering the attack tunnels in both regional and Lebanese contexts.
There is no doubt that Nasrallah will choose to comment on these events at the earliest opportunity. Most probably, he will boast that Hezbollah has even more surprises that Israel is not aware of, and which it will encounter in the next military confrontation if it dares to provoke Hezbollah or initiate any attack on Lebanese soil.
What is Hezbollah's strategy in Lebanon?
In fact, far beyond the Israeli-Lebanese border, Hezbollah is busy with a strategic problem that is preventing it from dealing with Israel at this moment in time. Hezbollah is waging a crucial battle over the control of Lebanese infrastructure. The organization has returned to Lebanon from Syria, where it has left a small contingent. Its next project is to develop a strategy for taking control of the Lebanese government and turning Lebanon into Hezbollah turf through ballots rather than bullets.
In fact, in the May 2018 parliamentary elections held in Lebanon, the Hezbollah coalition gained 80 out of 128 seats in Parliament. However, due to the sectarian distribution of the top positions of the state, the main loser, Sunni leader Saad Hariri, has, oddly enough, been nominated as transitional prime minister in order to form a new government.
Though seven months have elapsed since then, Hariri has not been able to form a government, mainly because of stumbling blocks raised by Hezbollah. According to custom, the Lebanese government is a body comprised of 30 ministers.
Of these, the winning bloc in Parliament gets 15 portfolios, the opposition 10, and five more are the choice of the president of Lebanon. Judging the distribution unfair, Hezbollah has demanded two more portfolios in order to represent the six Sunni pro-Syrian (thus pro-Hezbollah) Parliament members, disrupting the subtle balance existing today in the formula of 15+10+5.
Several proposals for an alternative composition of government (such as 18 portfolios, 24, etc.) have been rejected by both parties. Hezbollah has tried to pressure President Michel Aoun into rescinding his decision to nominate Hariri as caretaker prime minister and asking Parliament to vote in favor of another candidate, more suitable to Hezbollah.
At first, Aoun was tempted to adopt Hezbollah's motion, but he retracted at the last moment because he realized its huge ramifications for the Lebanese body politic and Saudi-Lebanese relations, as Saudi Arabia is supporting Hariri in his efforts while Hezbollah draws its inspiration and support from Iran.
Lebanon's difficult internal situation
In such a state of affairs, Lebanon finds itself in a very dire situation. With no stable government, the internal scene has been experiencing new developments that were previously unknown:
Mounting tension between Lebanon's various sectarian communities, almost at the risk of igniting a new civil war, especially between Sunni and Shi'ite Muslims. At the beginning of December 2018, the internal security forces attempted to summon former parliamentarian Wissam Wahab, a Druze living in a small town called Jahiliyah, to Beirut for an investigation on grounds of blaspheming against Rafik Hariri, father of the present transitional Prime Minister Saad Hariri. However, this ended in the killing of his driver and nearly led to civil war.
A spectacular reconciliation in the Christian camp between Samir Geagea, head of the Lebanese forces (a Christian militia), and the Frangieh family. In 1978, Geagea led the task force that stormed the Frangieh mansion in the northern town of Ehden, killing Tony Frangieh, his wife, and daughter. Tony Frangieh was the son of former Lebanese President Suleiman Frangieh, who invited the Syrian army to intervene in the Lebanese civil war in 1976, when the Christian camp was about to be defeated by the PLO and leftist forces.
Following the killing of Tony Frangieh, the Phalange party (Kataeb in Arabic) was driven out of the northern part of Mount Lebanon. Since then, the Phalange Party has been forbidden to enter any areas considered to be under the control of the Frangieh clan.
Lebanon is so heavily in debt that it is unable to pay back its loans. (It has the third-highest rate of national debt in the world--$81 billion, representing 152 percent of its gross domestic product.) A pledge by foreign donors to provide a financial relief package of $11 billion, made at a Paris conference in April 2018, cannot be honored due to the political and economic situation.
Political parties have taken to the streets to express their disapproval of the political stalemate and economic situation.
Lebanon is suffering from the presence of Syrian refugees, who represent more than 25 percent of its population. It has not succeeded in convincing these refugees to go back home.
The internal infrastructure is crumbling. Beside chronic electricity cuts, rivers (literally) of waste are flowing all over the capital due to an absence of municipal services.
In December 2018, against the backdrop of these developments, Israel accused Lebanon of violating U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 by allowing Hezbollah to dig trans-border attack tunnels into Israeli territory. Israel has expressed its view that the Lebanese government is responsible and has actually insinuated that Lebanon could become a target for retaliation if a military confrontation started between Israel and Hezbollah.
Judging from the above, it seems that this is not the right time for Hezbollah to confront Israel. Lebanon is at a crossroads, as it struggles for stability. An upheaval in Lebanon does not serve the interests of either Hezbollah or Iran. Therefore, Hezbollah's main arena remains inside Lebanon, including the domination of Lebanese politics.
Once this is achieved, it will be much easier for Hezbollah to confront Israel. However, if Israel was to "infringe" on Lebanese sovereignty (by, for example, blowing up the attack tunnels from the Lebanese side of the border), it would be more than likely to witness a military escalation with Hezbollah.
Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations Danny Danon warned the U.N. Security Council on Wednesday about the threat Hezbollah poses to the Jewish state, calling the terrorist group a "lifeblood" from Iran.
"Hezbollah has built a terror base inside a civilian population, with its end on the Israeli side of the border, all financed by Iran," he said in a special session of the U.N. Security Council. "This not only a clear violation of Resolution 1701, but Hezbollah also uses Lebanese civilians as human shields. If Hezbollah dares to attack Israel, it will bring ruin to Lebanon."
Shooting a Pregnant Woman and Lying - by Bassam Tawil -
Three Israelis have been killed in the latest wave of Palestinian terrorism in the West Bank in the past week. The victims are two soldiers and a four-day-old baby who was prematurely born after his mother was shot and wounded in a drive-by shooting attack carried out by Palestinian terrorists.
The terrorist attacks took place near the West Bank city of Ramallah, the de facto capital of the Palestinian Authority (PA), where President Mahmoud Abbas and most of his senior officials live and work. The car used in the drive-by shooting, which took place outside Ofra settlement, was later discovered by the Israeli army in the Ain Musbah neighborhood of Ramallah, a few hundred meters from the private residence and headquarters of Abbas.
No one is suggesting that Abbas knew in advance of the terrorist attacks. However, the response of Abbas and his top officials to the attacks raises serious doubts about their purported commitment to peace with Israel.
Hours before the Ofra attack, Abbas said in a speech before leaders of his Fatah faction that he remains committed to "peaceful popular resistance" and diplomacy. "We don't believe in weapons, and we don't believe in rockets," Abbas said in a reference to the rockets launched by Hamas and other terrorist groups from the Gaza Strip toward Israel.
The same Abbas who says he is opposed to the use of weapons and rockets has nonetheless failed to condemn the terrorist attacks in which these three Israelis were killed. Instead, his officials and he have been condemning Israel on a daily basis for cracking down on the terrorists.
The anti-Israel incitement began almost immediately after the Ofra attack, when Abbas and his officials in Fatah and the Palestinian Authority began denouncing Israel for sending soldiers into Ramallah to search for the terrorists.
Instead of condemning the murders at Ofra, Abbas's Ministry of Information issued a strong condemnation of the Israeli army for entering the offices of the Palestinian news agency Wafa. The ministry described the entry of the soldiers as an "act of terrorism" and called on the international community to hold Israel accountable for its "aggression" against the Palestinians.
According to the logic of Abbas's ministry, Israeli soldiers searching for terrorists is an "act of terrorism," but not the shooting of a pregnant woman and six other Israeli civilians standing at a bus stop.
The Israeli army did not enter Ramallah because Israel wants to "reoccupy" the city and reinstall the Israeli military government. This was a limited operation that lasted for a few hours and was in the context of the manhunt against the Palestinian terrorists. Abbas and his senior officials, however, have since been waging a fierce campaign of incitement against Israel and spreading lies and ridiculous conspiracy theories.
Consider, for example, what PLO Secretary General Saeb Erekat, who describes himself as the "chief Palestinian negotiator," had to say about the Israeli authorities' pursuit of the terrorists. Erekat, in a bizarre statement, claimed that the Israeli "intrusion into Ramallah was carried out with the backing of US President Donald Trump." Erekat, too, called on the international community to hold Israel accountable for its "crimes" and to provide international protection for the Palestinians.
What is strange about Erekat's statement is that he is suggesting that Israel needed permission from Trump to send its troops into Ramallah to catch the terrorists who murdered three people. What is also strange is that Erekat believes that the Israeli attempt to capture terrorists is a "crime" for which Israel should be held accountable in the global arena.
Yet, the bizarre PA statements continue. Take the remark made by Osama Qawassmeh, a senior Fatah official and spokesmen, who claimed that the Israeli military operation in Ramallah was actually aimed against Abbas himself. For Qawassmeh, the Israeli army "stormed" Ramallah because of Abbas's rejection of Trump's yet-to-be-announced plan for peace in the Middle East. As if that were not enough, the Fatah official went on to argue that the Israeli army's attempt to catch the terrorists was also linked to Abbas's opposition to a recent US resolution at the UN General Assembly that condemns Hamas for repeatedly firing rockets at Israel and inciting violence.
This absurd charge reflects the twisted logic of Abbas and his representatives in Ramallah. For them, the real problem is not the shooting of a pregnant woman or the killing of two soldiers. Instead, the Palestinian leaders, including Abbas, are pointing an accusatory finger at Israel for having the audacity to send its soldiers to capture Palestinian terrorists and prevent additional attacks against Israeli citizens. Needless to say, the Israeli soldiers who entered Ramallah never went close to Abbas's office or home and certainly had no intention of targeting him or any of his officials. In fact, not a single Palestinian Authority or Fatah official was arrested or harmed by the Israeli troops.
Does this Fatah official think the rest of the world is so stupid as to believe that Israel would put the lives of its soldiers at risk by sending them to Ramallah just because Abbas has rejected a peace plan that no one has seen or knows anything about? Did any of the soldiers who entered Ramallah knock on Abbas's door and hand him a letter saying he must accept Trump's unseen plan or else he would be punished? Of course not.
Here is another example of the lies and conspiracy theories promoted by Abbas's officials in the past few days. Mahmoud Habbash, who serves as Abbas's religious affairs adviser, said in response to the Israeli security measures against terrorism, that Israel and Hamas were colliding to "flip the table" in the West Bank to pave the way for the implementation of Trump's upcoming "deal of the century."
It is also worth noting that Hamas has publicly admitted that it was behind the recent spate of terrorist attacks in the West Bank. Yet according to Habbash, Israel's crackdown on terrorism is nothing but a conspiracy concocted by Israel and Hamas to undermine the Palestinian Authority and pave the way for "passing the deal of the century, which is aimed at liquidating the Palestinian cause."
Abbas's adviser, however, is convinced that the world is so stupid as to believe that Israel and Hamas were together behind the recent terrorist attacks. This is yet another blood libel against Israel from the Abbas and his entourage. Not only is this statement a lie as well as an insult to common sense, it almost seems lifted from a comedy show. "Almost", that is, because these apparently laughable remarks refer to a series of terrorist attacks that have claimed the lives of Israelis. As such, the statements should be taken seriously, and seen in the context of the Palestinian leadership's anti-Israel campaign of incitement and fabrications. It is precisely this sort of inflammatory rhetoric that prompts Palestinian terrorists to continue their attacks on Israel.
Instead of blaming Hamas for the terrorist attacks, Abbas's office chose to hold Israel responsible for the upsurge of violence in the West Bank. "The climate crafted by Israel's policy of recurring incursions into Palestinian cities, as well as incitement against President Abbas, has led to this round of violence, which we reject," said a statement issued by the Palestinian president's office.
Again, this statement shows that Abbas considers Israel's anti-terrorism measures, and not Hamas-engineered attacks, as the source of unrest and violence. The message that Abbas is sending to the world is: How dare these Israelis take security measures to stop terrorist attacks against their civilians and soldiers!
Abbas is obviously afraid of condemning his rivals in Hamas for waging the latest wave of terrorist attacks in the West Bank. He knows that the day he condemns the shooting of a pregnant Israeli woman, his people will rise up against him and charge him with collaborating with Israel. But Abbas has only himself to blame: his ongoing incitement and lies against Israel have made it too dangerous for him to utter a word against Palestinian terrorists.
Finally, we might mention an important detail about which Abbas and his representatives are keeping their mouths shut tight: the Israeli crackdown on Hamas in the West Bank actually serves the interests of the Palestinian Authority. Without this ongoing crackdown, Hamas would have long ago overthrown Abbas's regime and seized control of the West Bank. It is the Israeli soldiers stationed some hundreds of meters from Abbas's office and residence that is keeping him safe and sound. As inconvenient a truth as this is for Abbas and his spin doctors in Ramallah, it is the truth, nonetheless.
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