Cracks in Iran deal coalition? Europeans fume over Tehran missile test
By Adam Shaw
Published December 04, 2018
Diplomats from European countries on Tuesday blasted a recent Iranian missile test as �inconsistent� with a key U.N. Security Council resolution, as they struggle to keep the Iran deal intact amid U.S. pressure to get tough on the Islamic regime.
Iran test-fired a medium-range ballistic missile on Saturday, which the U.S. said had the capability to strike parts of Europe and the Middle East.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the missile was capable of carrying multiple warheads and was in violation of Security Council Resolution 2231 -- which calls on Iran to refrain from �any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using such ballistic missile technology.�
Resolution 2231 was the Security Council�s enshrinement of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA) -- which the Trump administration withdrew the U.S. from in May. The other signatories were Germany, U.K., France, China and Russia.
But the missile test has posed challenges to those countries trying to uphold their end of the deal despite the U.S. withdrawal -- drawing condemnation from European countries that otherwise have been supportive of the Iran pact. Consequently, the U.K. and France called a closed-door meeting of the Security Council on Tuesday to discuss the issue, though diplomats declared the test �inconsistent� with rather than �in violation� of 2231.
U.K. Ambassador Karen Pierce called the actions "part and parcel of Iran's destabilizing activities in the region." Her comments echo U.K. Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, who said Saturday that he was �deeply concerned by Iran�s actions," even as he reiterated support for the nuclear deal.
�Provocative, threatening and inconsistent with UNSCR 2231. Our support for JCPoA in no way lessens our concern at Iran�s destabilising missile programme and determination that it should cease,� he tweeted.
The claim that the move was �inconsistent� with 2231 was echoed by other diplomats at Turtle Bay.
�This kind of ballistic missile activity is inconsistent with the JCPoA , especially Annex B which calls on Iran not to engage in these kinds of activities,� Dutch Ambassador Karel van Oosterom said.
French Ambassador Fran�ois Delattre also said Iran's actions were "inconsistent" with the resolution and called on Iran to "immediately cease any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be able to carry nuclear weapons, including launches using ballistic missile technology."
The resolution's text only �calls upon� Iran to refrain from ballistic activity, rather than demanding it. It was that weaker language that kept diplomats from outright declaring Iran in violation of the resolution.
Israeli Ambassador Danny Danon told reporters, separately, that Israel, which does not sit on the Council, believes the test to be a violation of the resolution and called on the Security Council to condemn Iran for its actions.
The test marks the latest blow in Europe�s efforts to keep the 2015 accord alive, particularly after the U.S. withdrawal from the pact in May. The U.S. has since re-imposed multiple rounds of sanctions on the regime, including on crude oil exports last month, and has urged European allies to join them.
U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley said in a statement Tuesday that the Iranian test was "dangerous and concerning, but not surprising" and called on the Council to act.
U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley has called on the U.N. Security Council to condemn Iran's latest missile test. (AP)
�The United States has repeatedly warned the world about Iran�s deliberate efforts to destabilize the Middle East and defy international norms. The international community cannot keep turning a blind eye every time Iran blatantly ignores Security Council resolutions," she said.
"If the Security Council is serious about holding Iran accountable and enforcing our resolutions, then at a minimum we should be able to deliver a unanimous condemnation of this provocative missile test."
However, diplomats emerging from the closed-door meeting said while there were expressions of concern about Iran's activity, there were no immediate plans for any action against Iran in response.
The Iranians, meanwhile, argued they were in line with 2231: "Portraying Iran�s ballistic missile program as inconsistent with resolution 2231 or as a regional threat is a deceptive and hostile policy of the U.S."
Even as it re-imposed sanctions, the U.S. has warned that it will continue to act unilaterally if necessary. President Trump, at a U.N. Security Council meeting in September, warned that the U.S. "will pursue additional sanctions, tougher than ever before, to counter the entire range of Iran's malign conduct."
On Tuesday, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, called for more U.S. action to combat Iranian aggression.
�The United States has only begun to reverse the damage done by Obama's Iran nuclear deal, which gave the Ayatollahs the resources and diplomatic breathing room to build more and better ballistic missiles,� Cruz said in a statement to Fox News. �The last round of sanctions, while important, clearly failed to deter Iran from advancing their missile program. It's time to totally cut off Iran from the global financial system and deny them the resources they're using to threaten us and our allies.�
Some European leaders have recently opened the door to sanctions on Iran after the emergence of terror plots on European soil, which leaders say originate from Tehran.
The Wall Street Journal reported last month that a call for sanctions by Danish diplomats won broad support at a meeting of E.U. ambassadors, after Denmark�s intelligence agency foiled an Iranian plot to kill an opposition activist and arrested a Norwegian of Iranian descent.
That alleged plot came after an Iranian diplomat based in Vienna was arrested in July for a plot to bomb an annual gathering of Iranian dissident groups in Paris, which Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani attended.
Fox News' Ben Evansky contributed to this report.
Why Iran Funds Palestinian Terrorists - by Bassam Tawil -
In keeping with its long-standing policy of funding anyone who seeks to destroy Israel or kill Jews, Iran has decided to pay stipends to the families of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip who were killed during attacks on Israel. The decision refers to the Palestinians who were killed while attacking Israeli soldiers during the weekly Hamas-sponsored riots along the Gaza-Israel border; they began in March 2018 under the banner of the "March of Return."
What are the implications of the Iranian decision? The message that Iran is sending to Palestinian families is: "If you want money and a good life, send your children to die on the border with Israel." In other words, Iran is telling Palestinian families that the best way to improve their living conditions is by sending their children to kill or injure a Jew. This is a message that is likely to reverberate far and wide among Arabs, well beyond the Palestinians.
The expansion of Iranian influence to the Middle East in general and the Palestinian arena in particular began during the Obama administration, which turned a blind eye to Iran's aggressive intentions, and later embarked on a policy of appeasement toward its mullahs. Under the Obama administration, the Iranians must have felt they had a pass to do whatever they wanted. That is evidently why, today, they are sitting not only in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, but also in Syria, Yemen, Libya and Iraq.
Recently, Gatestone reported how Iran was planning to take over the Gaza Strip. The article pointed out that the Iranians were strengthening their ties with Hamas and Islamic Jihad to ensure that the two terrorist groups maintained their tight grip on the Palestinian population there.
One should probably not have expected anything different from the Iranians. In fact, the decision to fund the families of the Palestinians killed in attacks on Israelis is consistent with the anti-Israel and anti-Semitic policies of the rulers of Tehran, as well as others. The Iranians are even boasting of this decision. They are hoping that the move will bolster Iran's standing in the Arab and Islamic countries and allow it to continue meddling in the internal affairs of countries in the Middle East.
It is no coincidence that the decision was announced shortly after Iran's purportedly "moderate" president, Hassan Rouhani, called Israel a "cancerous tumor" and a "fake regime" established by Western countries to advance their interests in the Middle East.
Rouhani's remarks are further confirmation of Iran's openly declared goal of destroying Israel
Iranian leaders and their Palestinian allies deserve credit for being honest and straightforward about their intentions. Earlier this year, Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, called Israel a "rabid dog" and said the Islamic world should arm itself against the Jewish state.
Last year, the Iranians unveiled a digital countdown showing 8,411 days to what they say would be the "destruction of Israel." The prediction of based on a statement made by Khamenei in 2015, in which he said there would be "nothing" left of Israel by the year 2040.
The decision to fund the families of Palestinian terrorists was announced during a conference of The World Forum for Proximity of Islamic Schools of Thought, a forum established in 1990 by order of Khamenei for the reconciliation of different Islamic schools and branches. The man who announced the decision was Mohsen Araki, the leader of the forum. Iran, he said, has decided to "adopt" the families of the Palestinians killed on the Gaza-Israel border. When the Iranians talk about "adopting" someone, they mean that Tehran will look after the families of those who targeted Jews and provide them with everything they need, including money, healthcare and education.
Iran's Palestinian proxies, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, were quick to applaud the decision. They called it a "positive step toward unifying Muslims." In the words of Islamic Jihad leader Khaled al-Batsh, "The Islamic nation has no choice but to be united. We hope that the rest of the Arabs and Muslims will follow suit and support the marches and the lifting of the blockade [imposed on the Gaza Strip]."
The Iranians even invited senior Hamas officials to the conference, thereby further signaling Tehran's continued support for the Gaza-based terrorist group that also seeks the elimination of Israel. The Hamas delegation was headed by Mahmoud Zahar, regarded in the Gaza Strip as the "commander in chief" of Hamas's military wing, Izaddin al-Qassam.
The declared goal of the conference is to forge unity between Muslims. For the Iranians and their proxies, Islamic unity is a prerequisite to advancing the ultimate goal of removing the "cancerous tumor" (Israel) from the face of the earth. Iran has been doing its utmost to achieve this goal.
Were it not for Iranian support, the Lebanese Shiite terrorist organization, Hezbollah, would not be aiming tens of thousands of rockets and missiles at Israel. Were it not for Iranian military and financial backing, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other terrorist groups would not have been able to fire more than 400 projectiles at Israel in 24 hours, as they did last month.
Iran supplies the means to anyone who shares the Islamic Republic's objective of eliminating Israel. Hezbollah has been receiving billions of dollars from the Iranians in order to prepare for the next war against Israel. Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip have been receiving political, financial and military aid from Iran in order to continue their attacks on Israel.
Iran's actions are not only directed against Israel, but also against the US. As Hussein Sheikh al-Islam, a senior official with the Iranian Foreign Ministry, explained: "The latest decision [to fund Palestinian families] is aimed at supporting the Palestinians in the face of American conspiracies to eliminate the Palestinian cause and rights."
To set the record straight: Iran cares nothing for the Palestinians; Iran seeks to obliterate Israel, and if it could, obliterate the US, as its expansion into South America suggests.
It seems that some mullahs in Iran cannot wait for Khamenei's prediction of Israel's destruction in 2040. The Iranian money promised to the families is meant to encourage other all Arabs and Muslims to send their children to launch rocket attacks on Israel and throw stones and firebombs at Israeli soldiers.
The money is not going for the building of medical clinics or schools in the Gaza Strip. Iran is prepared to pursue its fight against Israel and the US to the last Palestinian or Arab or Muslim. In fact, the mullahs might well like to see more Arabs and Muslims die in order to promote the jihad against Israel and the US. The question is, will the international community allow this plan to continue, or will it wake up to the fact that Iran has much more than Israel and the US in its sights?
Israel and the U.S. Have Common Interests in the Middle East - Caroline Glick -
Some Israelis were concerned when they read President Donald Trump's recent statements to the media about the reasons for his support of Saudi Arabia.
In an interview with the Washington Post last week, Trump linked his support for the Saudi regime, and his unwillingness to punish Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) for the Jamal Khashoggi killing, to Israel.
Trump said of the Saudis, "They've been a great ally. Without them, Israel would be in a lot more trouble. We need to have a counterbalance to Iran."
Trump added, "It's very important to have Saudi Arabia as an ally, very important to maintain that relationship ... if we're going to stay in that part of the world. Now, are we going to stay in that part of the world? One reason to is Israel. Oil is becoming less and less of a reason because we're producing more oil now than we've every produced. So you know, all of the sudden it gets to a point where you don't have to stay there."
As senior Israeli defense analyst Ron Ben Yishai wrote on Thursday, Saudi Arabia needs Israel just as much, if not more than, Israel needs Saudi Arabia. Iran and its nuclear program threaten Saudi Arabia even more acutely than they threaten Israel. Saudi Arabia is across the Persian Gulf from Iran and is weaker than Iran. If Iran develops a nuclear arsenal, it could destroy the Saudi regime.
Ben Yishai noted that Saudi Arabia's greatest potential assistance to Israel would come in the form of permission for Israeli fighter jets to overfly Saudi airspace en route to bombing Iran's nuclear installations.
But, he notes, Saudi Arabia and the other Sunni Gulf states arguably have more to gain and less to lose from an Israeli strike on Iran than Israel does. In other words, if the Saudis were to permit the Israeli Air Force (AIF) to traverse their airspace en route to Iran, they would be doing so more for their own benefit than for Israel's.
Saudi Arabia is apparently playing a major role in the thaw in relations between Israel and a growing number of Arab and Muslim states. According to a report in the Arabic media, MBS and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah a-Sisi have decided to encourage Arab states to trade with Israel. That is good for Israel but it also provides political space for the Saudis to work with Israel to thwart Iran's hegemonic and nuclear ambitions in the region.
This, then, brings us back to Trump's statement.
Israelis are relating a twofold concern about Trump's remarks. First, he appears to be saying that Israel would be helpless without the Saudi regime, and that the U.S. needs to retain its close ties to Saudi Arabia to secure Israel.
This is not the case. True, Israel and Saudi Arabia gain from their alliance with the U.S. And the potential for Israeli-Saudi relations has increased since Trump embraced them both as key allies. But the two sides reached out to each other before Trump became president. The Saudi-Israeli partnership began in response to then-President Barack Obama's decision to appease Iran at their expense through the nuclear deal.
The second - and deeper - concern Israelis are expressing in relation to Trump's statement is that he appears to be saying that the U.S. is only in the Middle East to protect Israel.
As Ben Yishai wrote, it is likely that some of the American servicemen who are deployed today in multiple theaters in the region will be killed in action at some time, in some places. Ben Yishai argued that Trump's statement effectively says that "the American military presence is necessary mainly because of Israel." And as a consequence, when American servicemen in Syria, or Iraq, or Jordan, or elsewhere are killed, "many in the United States will blame Israel for the[ir] deaths."
The truth is that Trump is right to view Israel as central to American policies in relation to the Middle East. The problem with his remarks is that he did not explain why. He did not point out the roots of Israel's significance in U.S. calculations, for example.
It is worth explaining that now.
The root of Israel's enduring significance to the U.S. is found in the fact that the Jewish state shares all of America's core interests in relation to the region.
The first U.S. core interest in the Middle East is to prevent any competing superpower from taking over. The U.S. does not want China or Russia to supplant it as the preeminent superpower in the region, both because such an event would harm the U.S. economically, and because it would make America's rivals significantly stronger and the U.S. significantly weaker.
Israel shares this U.S. interest. Israel can develop close ties with both Russia and China on a transactional level based on episodic common interests. But unlike the U.S., Russia and China do not share Israel's permanent perception of its interests the way the U.S. does.
Along these lines, the second permanent U.S. interest in the Middle East is to prevent local powers from dominating the region, proliferating weapons of mass destruction, or acquiring intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Israel's acute concern with all of these issues has caused it to develop intelligence agencies second to none in gathering and acting on intelligence relating to all of these issues - not only in Israel, but worldwide. Israel's Mossad's seizure of Iran's nuclear archive in Tehran this past January is a testament to Israel's capabilities.
The Middle East remains the world's largest incubator for terrorism and the largest exporter of terrorists. Israel's unhappy distinction is that it has been fighting these forces since before it was established. The U.S. and Israel share a key interest in destroying terror groups operating in the Middle East to prevent them from attacking in the region and throughout the world.
Israel's intelligence capabilities have foiled Iranian terror attacks around the world and have exposed Iranian agents engaged in purchasing dual-use technologies to advance Iran's nuclear work.
The final interest that Israel and the U.S. share is enabling the smooth flow of oil from the region to ensure the stability of global oil prices - and, through them, the stability of the global economy.
Israel's interest is not that of a supplier, or even that of a purchaser, but as a victim of Arab oil power.
In 1973, the Arab members of OPEC imposed an oil embargo on the U.S. and other states that supported Israel during the 1973 Arab war against Israel. In response to the embargo, western European nations largely abandoned their previous alliances with Israel. The U.S. maintained its support for Israel, but adopted a policy of turning a blind eye to Palestinian terrorism - even when it was directed against Americans - and of providing only conditional support for Israel in its wars with its Arab neighbors.
Given this last interest, the strategic implications of America's recent restoration of its position as the largest global oil producer become clearer. Trump's essential insight - that reduced dependence on Arab oil is good for the U.S. - does not, by itself, spell out how that reduced dependence makes the U.S. safer or stronger.
Reduced dependence on Arab oil frees the U.S. to stand up for itself and its interests more forthrightly than it was able to do when the Arab states could impose oil embargoes at will and raise or lower prices whenever they wished.
The implication, as far as Israel is concerned, is that for the first time, perhaps since the 1973 OPEC embargo, the U.S. is today free to stand with Israel. Since they share the same permanent interests in the region, the stronger America is, the better off Israel is, and the stronger Israel is, the better off America is.
America may yet find a way to diminish its presence in the region. But the key to accomplishing that goal is to ensure that Israel defeats its enemies and develops and maintains its ability to protect itself, by itself - and so defend American interests - on a permanent basis.
What Are Iran & Hezbollah Planning? - Israel Prepares For Escalation - By Yoni Ben Menachem -
Commentators on the Arab world are watching Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot with interest following media reports that he canceled an important meeting in Germany this week, and the reasons for his cancellation remain obscure.
They believe it is connected to developments on the northern border, and not specifically to the situation in Gaza following the renewal of Egyptian contacts with Israel and Hamas to advance the understandings for calm.
The Iranian leadership is sure that Israel is weak, and this is the right time to strike against it.
At the 32nd International Islamic Unity Conference, which took place in Tehran on Nov. 24, Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei made the following statements about Israel:
The Zionist enemy crumpled against the Palestinian resistance after only two days. ... All this proves that the Zionist regime is significantly weakened. ... The pace of weakening is increasing.
What are Iran and Hezbollah planning?
Senior security sources in Israel are suspicious of secret activities by Gen. Qasem Soleimani, leader of the Quds force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Syria and Lebanon, who is planning to inflame the northern sector against Israel in two ways:
Deploying Hezbollah and pro-Iranian forces close to the border fence on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights, with the assistance of local (Druze and pro-Iranian) elements, which, in exchange for financial payment, would construct terrorist infrastructure for attacks against Israel. These include laying mines and IEDs, firing anti-tank missiles at IDF patrols, and launching mortar attacks on Israeli communities in the Golan Heights.
Gen. Soleimani and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah prefer this option, instead of the attacks launched from southern Lebanon as it would neutralize Israel's possible counterstrike and the destruction of Lebanon's civilian infrastructure. Opening a new front against Israel from the Syrian Golan Heights would also divide IDF forces among several fronts.
Constructing factories inside Lebanon to upgrade the missiles in the possession of Hezbollah to become more accurate and capable of hitting strategic targets deep in Israel more accurately. These targets include Ben-Gurion Airport, the atomic reactor in Dimona, refineries in Haifa and various IDF bases.The working assumption of Hezbollah and Iran is that Israel would not dare to launch a preemptive strike on these factories out of fear that this would lead to an all-out war.
Syrian opposition groups left southern Syria in September, and the entire region is now under Syrian army control.
In the past, Hezbollah's Nasrallah attempted to open a new front against Israel in the Golan Heights using a local infrastructure. He gave this mission to Samir Kuntar (a Lebanese terrorist who sat in an Israeli prison for nine years) and Jihad Mughniyeh (son of the infamous arch-terrorist Imad Mughniyeh). However, according to foreign news reports, the IDF assassinated both of them in 2015, before they carried out any attacks.
The Hezbollah leader has apparently placed this issue at the top of his priorities in order to settle his accounts with Israel. Israel is aware of Nasrallah's intentions, and this was reflected in Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot's tour of the border area in the Golan Heights in November, 2018.
Israel shares fully with the Trump administration all of its concerns about possible developments on the northern border.
Can any scenario be ruled out?
The possibility cannot be ruled out that Iran, via Hezbollah, is planning a new war of attrition against Israel from the Golan Heights border at the same time as the war of attrition with Hamas on the southern border through its "Return Marches" campaign.
The developments on the northern border are worrying. Israel's freedom of aerial action in Syrian airspace is limited following the incident when a Russian spy plane was brought down by a Syrian air defense system in September, 2018. Russia blames the Israeli air force for the interception.
Russia transferred S-300 missile batteries to Syria, and with Russian guidance, these have been integrated gradually into the Syrian air defense system.
The possibility that Israel will launch a military preemptive strike on the Hezbollah weapons factories in Lebanon, before they become operational, seems very far off, but not illogical.
Iran and Hezbollah constructed these factories after Israel managed methodically and over a period of time to destroy game-changing advanced weaponry being transferred in convoys from Iran to Lebanon.
With the weapons' destruction, Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander Gen. Qasem Soleimani decided to construct the weapons factories inside Lebanon to prevent Israeli attacks.
We are now in a very tense period regarding security on the southern and northern borders, and with growing Iranian intervention in the region, no possible scenario can be ruled out. The IDF can handle several fronts at the same time. It has done so in the past, and it can also do it again in the future.
Israel is determined to protect the security of its citizens. But it may have no other choice other than to carry out actions that may not seem to be rational right now.
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