The Limits of Arab-Israeli Cooperation - Caroline Glick -
The Trump White House is reportedly deliberating the best time to present its peace plan for the Palestinians and Israel.
A few weeks ago, the Hebrew language media in Israel reported that the administration intended to release the plan after the Israeli elections on April 9, but before the next coalition government is formed.
On Wednesday, the Times of Israel reported that the administration intends to delay the release of the plan until mid-May.
In the meantime, President Donald Trump's senior advisor and son-in-law Jared Kushner, who is overseeing the administration's peace efforts, is scheduled to speak at a conference in Poland on peace in the Middle East next week. According to a report Wednesday at Axios, Kushner is expected to answer questions about the administration's plan, but will not divulge any specific details about its contents.
One aspect of the plan that is known is that the administration hopes to use Israel's improved bilateral relations with Sunni Arab states, led by Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as a means to improve the chances that the plan will be accepted by Israelis and Palestinians.
In a conversation with the Times of Israel this week, a senior White House official said, "We believe we can put forth a credible, realistic and fair plan that could bring this conflict to an end; to dramatically improve Palestinian lives, maintain Israel's security and allow Israel to integrate into the region in a way that even two years ago no one would have imagined it could."
In other words, the Trump team apparently believes that it is possible to base Palestinian peace with Israel on a wider regional peace between the Arab world and Israel.
This assumption is probably correct, as far as it goes.
The wider Arab world's rejection of Israel's right to exist, and Arab states' repeated attempts to destroy Israel, are the foundation of the Palestinian conflict with Israel. The more accepting the Arab world is of the Jewish state, the less motivated the Palestinians will be to maintain their perpetual war against Israel.
This state of affairs has already dramatically reduced the potential for tension between the Palestinians and Israel to rise to the level of all-out war. Arab states led by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Egypt are far more concerned about Iran and its efforts to assert hegemonic power in the Middle East and build a nuclear arsenal than they are about attacking Israel, which they do not view as a threat. Their keenness to cooperate with Israel in joint efforts to curtail Iranian power in the region far outweighs their support for the Palestinians.
So too, fear of Iran has made Sunni Arab leaders far more focused on receiving U.S. military and other support to protect their regimes and territory from Iran and its terrorist proxies - Hezbollah, the Houthis, the Iraqi Shiite militias, and others. That is the reason that the likes of Egyptian President Abdel Fatah a-Sisi and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Sultan did nothing and said little in response to President Trump's decision to recognize that Israel's capital is Jerusalem and move the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem.
Under these circumstances then, it is reasonable for the Trump administration to believe that it is possible to use Israel's cooperative ties with the wider Sunni Arab world as a platform to promote its plan to resolve the Palestinian conflict with Israel.
The problem with this conviction is that it fails to recognize the built-in limitations of pan-Arab cooperation with Israel.
Today, the Saudis, the UAE, Egypt, and other Arab states view Israel as a partner because they share a common enemy - Iran. Israel has demonstrated its willingness and capacity to fight Iran and its proxies both militarily and diplomatically. Israel's close ties with the U.S. are an added inducement for the Arabs, who require U.S. military assistance and weapons systems to foster cooperative ties with Jerusalem.
But even as unofficial, behind-the-scenes ties expand between Israel and its neighbors, Arab societies' popular rejection of Israel remains implacable. The places that hostility manifests itself most vociferously are the two Arab states - Egypt and Jordan - that have formal peace treaties with Israel.
For instance, this week, the UK-based, virulently anti-Israel Middle East Monitor website reported that Egyptian intellectual groups responded with rage and condemnation to a Facebook post by Israel's ambassador to Egypt David Goffrin which included photos of the ambassador visiting the Cairo Book Fair. The Egyptian Book Organization, the Cultural Committee of Egyptian Journalists, and other groups condemned Goffrin and rejected any normalization between Egyptian society and Israel.
In the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, generally viewed as the most pro-Western Arab state, hatred for Israel and Jews is all-pervasive. Israeli tourists routinely return home with tales of harassment at the hands of their tour guides and Jordanian authorities. Last December Jordan's Minister of Information and government spokesman Jumana Ghunaimat provoked a diplomatic crisis when she was photographed stepping on an Israeli flag painted at the entrance to Amman's Trade Union Headquarters.
Also in December, a Jordanian worker at Israel's port of Eilat attacked two of his Israeli co-workers with a hammer.
The Hashemite monarchy does nothing to diminish popular hatred of Israel. Worse, in fact, King Abdullah facilitates Jew hatred and rejection of Israel. Last October, for instance, he announced that Jordan would not renew the 25-year lease of agricultural plots along the border with Israel. The lands have been farmed by Israeli farmers for more than 100 years. Israel agreed to withdraw its claims to sovereignty over them in the framework of the 1994 peace deal in exchange for renewable 25-year leases to Israeli farmers to continue farming the land.
Ironically, the month after Abdullah announced the leases would not be renewed, Jordan asked Israel to increase the amount of water its supplies to Jordan. Currently, Israel provides Jordan with 50 million cubic meters of water every year.
While Saudi Crowned Prince Mohammed has spoken warmly about Israel, he has made clear that Saudi Arabia will not normalize its relations with Israel until after Israel concludes a peace deal with the Palestinians. Since the Palestinian leadership has committed itself to rejecting peace with Israel, and refuses to even speak with American officials, it is clear that Prince Mohammed's statements are unlikely to be put to the test.
Israelis, for their part, are not pining for tourist packages to Riyadh. To the extent Israeli businessmen need to travel to Arab capitals for work, they are largely able to do so. Formal treaties of peace between Israel and the likes of Saudi Arabia will add little to no value to ties between the two countries. To the contrary, as has happened in Jordan and Egypt, government authorities, fearful of claims by Islamists and others that they betrayed their nations or Islam itself by forging a peace on paper with Israel, will go out of their way to distance their governments from Israel.
In other words, ironically, formal peace between Israel and Arab states will reduce the strategic potential of bilateral ties, while subjecting those ties - now hidden from public approbation - to continuous assault by opinion leaders and religious authorities.
Moreover, since the current thaw in Israel-Arab relations is a function of shared concern over Iranian aggression, it is likely that those ties will be reduced, and may even end, if and when the Iranian threat is significantly reduced or defeated outright through regime change.
This, then, brings us to the nature of the Trump "deal-of-the-century" for Israel and the Palestinians.
In all previous U.S. "peace plans," Israel was called on to transfer land it requires to defend itself against foreign invasion and terrorist infiltration in exchange for a paper peace. It was called on to destroy the homes and communities of hundreds of thousands of law-abiding Israeli citizens, and partition Jerusalem, transferring control over urban neighborhoods and holy sites to the Palestine Liberation Organization.
Not only would implementing the requisite concessions endanger Israel strategically, it would also cause massive social cleavages which would increase dramatically the prospect of a profound destabilization of Israeli society.
Statements by U.S. officials, including by former U.S. UN ambassador Nikki Haley, regarding the details of the Trump administration's peace plan have telegraphed the message that its contents are similar to those presented by past administrations. That is, the Trump plan presumes that Israel will give real - irreversible - concessions to the Palestinians in the form of land transfers that will enfeeble and divide it in exchange for a paper peace deal.
The difference, to the extent there is one, between the substance of the Trump plan and its predecessors is that the Trump administration plan envisions peace between Israel and the Palestinians to be forged in the context of a broader peace between Israel and regional Arab states.
And yet, when one considers the ubiquitous hatred for Israel and Jews in Jordan and Egypt, it is clear that formal peace deals do not improve ties between the nations of the Arab world and Israel. If anything, they harm them. So too, when one recognizes that since the basis of the current operational cooperation between Arab states and Israel is a shared interest in diminishing Iran, it becomes clear that once that threat is diminished or defeated, the basis for Israeli-Arab cooperation will disappear.
If that happens after a "peace" is forged, Israel will have endangered its future and weakened its society in an egregious way for nothing. Its formal ties with the likes of Saudi Arabia and the UAE will be reduced to nothing and it will face a renewed threat of pan-Arab aggression after surrendering its defensible borders for a paper peace.
There is a reason that despite the best efforts of every U.S. president since Harry Truman, peace between the Arab world and Israel remains elusive. There is no popular acceptance of Israel in the Arab world. And no Israeli concessions to the Palestinians or Israeli assistance in countering Iran's aggression will change that.
Israel's Red Lines in Lebanon and Syria - By Yaakov Lappin -
Israel's low-profile military campaign against the Iranian-Shiite axis in Syria is continuing despite changes in the geo-strategic environment. But the use of Israeli air power to disrupt enemy force build-up has yet to cross into Lebanon. It is possible that this could represent one of the most significant regional escalation scenarios in the near future.
The "War Between Wars" is an ongoing Israeli military and intelligence effort to disrupt the force build-up of the Iranian-Shiite axis throughout the Middle East. This campaign, which has evolved into an entire force activation doctrine, has seen the Israeli defense establishment employ an approach that differentiates between Syria and Lebanon.
In Syria, Israel launches frequent intelligence-fueled air strikes that target Iranian military build-up sites. The strikes also destroy Iranian weapon transfers that use Syria as a transit zone on their way to Hezbollah bases in Lebanon.
The scope of Israel's preventative air strike campaign in Syria is enormous, as recently outlined by former IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Gadi Eisenkot. Eisenkot told the New York Times that Israeli jets had fired 2,000 air-to-ground munitions at targets in Syria in 2018 alone.
This has clearly disrupted Iran's plans to build a Shiite army in Syria under its command, made up of 100,000 militia members. Iran was also planning to build missile factories, launch sites, weapons storage facilities, and a network of cross-border attack positions along Syria's border with Israel.
The January 12, 2019 Israeli air strike on Damascus international airport, apparently targeting a depot housing Iranian-made Fajr 5 rockets and other projectiles, is the latest indication of Jerusalem's determination to enforce its red lines in Syria against the entrenchment of a radical Shiite axis.
Commentators have eulogized the "War Between Wars," claiming that it cannot withstand Russian pressure and the growing risk of conflict with a reconstituting Syrian state. They are underestimating Israeli resoluteness.
Israel's military high command and cabinet are both fully committed to the objective of denying Iran a military foothold in Syria. According to the logic of that objective, the long-term cost of allowing Iran the opportunity to build a second war front on Israel's border, alongside the Iranian attack base already in place in Lebanon, would be higher than any fallout from "War Between Wars" strikes.
In Lebanon, however, Israel employs a very different approach. Hezbollah, Iran's primary proxy in the region, enjoys a monopoly of military and political power in Lebanon, with the help of the Iranian Quds Force. The Hezbollah-Iran axis has imported some 130,000 projectiles into Lebanon, turning the country into one big rocket launching base aimed at Israel. This represents an exponential jump compared to the 10,000 rockets that were in Hezbollah's arsenal on the eve of the Second Lebanon War in 2006.
Most of the projectiles in Hezbollah's inventory are unguided, and Iran has made a new push in recent months to deliver guidance systems to the group. These would enable Hezbollah to convert some of its projectiles into precision-guided missiles, which could be used to strategically threaten vital Israeli targets like airports, seaports, power plants, military bases, and high-profile buildings.
Israel's determination to stop Hezbollah from upgrading its firepower in this way found expression on September 17, when Israeli fighter jets struck an Iranian shipment of guidance kit components near Latakia, on the Syrian coastline. That strike triggered massive Syrian anti-aircraft fire, bringing down a Russian intelligence aircraft and killing 15 crew members. The incident sparked a major Russian-Israeli crisis that has yet to be resolved.
The Iranians then appeared to switch tactics, flying guidance components in cargo flights directly into Beirut's Rafic Hariri International Airport.
At the end of September last year, PM Netanyahu and the IDF Spokesman's Unit exposed the existence of multiple underground sites for the conversion of unguided rockets into precision missiles. One of the sites was adjacent to the airport.
"Hezbollah's senior members took a deliberate decision to shift the center of gravity of the precision missile project, which they have been working on for a while, to the civilian area in the heart of Beirut," the IDF stated on September 27.
Three months after these warnings, Netanyahu said at the end of December 2018 that Hezbollah had shut down these conversion centers, adding that the organization has, "at most, a few dozen precision-guided missiles" at this time.
Netanyahu said that Israel's security forces have stopped Hezbollah from possessing thousands of such missiles. These developments illustrate the fact that unlike in Syria, Israel is deeply reluctant to employ air power in Lebanon to enforce its red lines, and prefers to rely on messaging and deterrence through speeches and the media as well as through potential alleged activities that are more discreet than air power.
This is an indication that mutual deterrence between Israel and Hezbollah remains in effect. An unwritten agreement between Israel and Hezbollah began to crystallize in 2014, after Israel allegedly struck a Hezbollah weapons convoy on the Syrian-Lebanese border and Hezbollah set off border bombs that targeted an IDF convoy traveling in Har Dov, causing damage but no injuries.
Following the incident, Nasrallah said in an interview that Israeli attacks in or near Lebanon would draw rapid retaliation, hinting that this was not the case regarding strikes in Syria.
This quiet understanding would become irrelevant if Lebanon becomes the site of precision missile conversion operations. Israel's multiple warnings to Nasrallah and his Iranian backers have delivered that message.
Hezbollah, for its part, felt the need to replenish its own deterrence against Israel by releasing a video at the start of December with Google Earth satellite images and coordinates of sensitive targets across Israel, threatening strikes against them. The video included a snippet from a speech by Nasrallah in which he warned that his organization "will respond" if Israel hits targets in Lebanon.
The ability of Israel and Hezbollah to apparently defuse the "Lebanese [precision] missile crisis" of 2018 without going to war is no guarantee that they will repeat such a de-escalation this year.
It seems safe to assume that the newly appointed IDF Chief of Staff, Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi, who has monitored Hezbollah's force build-up both as Northern Command chief and as Military Intelligence commander, will remain busy with this issue during his term.
For now, Israel has been able to enforce its red lines on precision missile production in Lebanon through the use of deterrence and messaging. It remains unclear whether those same tactics will be effective the next time the Iranian axis tries to set up precision missile factories on Lebanese soil.
The War Between Wars: Israel's Battle Against The Iranian-Shiite Axis - By Yaakov Lappin -
The "War Between Wars" is an ongoing Israeli military and intelligence effort to disrupt the force build-up of the Iranian-Shiite axis throughout the Middle East. This campaign, which has evolved into an entire force activation doctrine, has seen the Israeli defense establishment employ an approach that differentiates between Syria and Lebanon.
Israel's low-profile military campaign against the Iranian-Shiite axis in Syria is continuing despite changes in the geo-strategic environment. But the use of Israeli air power to disrupt enemy force build-up has yet to cross into Lebanon. It is possible that this could represent one of the most significant regional escalation scenarios in the near future.
The "War Between Wars" is an ongoing Israeli military and intelligence effort to disrupt the force build-up of the Iranian-Shiite axis throughout the Middle East. This campaign, which has evolved into an entire force activation doctrine, has seen the Israeli defense establishment employ an approach that differentiates between Syria and Lebanon.
In Syria, Israel launches frequent intelligence-fueled air strikes that target Iranian military build-up sites. The strikes also destroy Iranian weapon transfers that use Syria as a transit zone on their way to Hezbollah bases in Lebanon.
The scope of Israel's preventative air strike campaign in Syria is enormous, as recently outlined by former IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Gadi Eisenkot. Eisenkot told the New York Times that Israeli jets had fired 2,000 air-to-ground munitions at targets in Syria in 2018 alone.
This has clearly disrupted Iran's plans to build a Shiite army in Syria under its command, made up of 100,000 militia members. Iran was also planning to build missile factories, launch sites, weapons storage facilities, and a network of cross-border attack positions along Syria's border with Israel.
The January 12, 2019 Israeli air strike on Damascus international airport, apparently targeting a depot housing Iranian-made Fajr 5 rockets and other projectiles, is the latest indication of Jerusalem's determination to enforce its red lines in Syria against the entrenchment of a radical Shiite axis.
Commentators have eulogized the "War Between Wars," claiming that it cannot withstand Russian pressure and the growing risk of conflict with a reconstituting Syrian state. They are underestimating Israeli resoluteness.
Israel's military high command and cabinet are both fully committed to the objective of denying Iran a military foothold in Syria. According to the logic of that objective, the long-term cost of allowing Iran the opportunity to build a second war front on Israel's border, alongside the Iranian attack base already in place in Lebanon, would be higher than any fallout from "War Between Wars" strikes.
In Lebanon, however, Israel employs a very different approach. Hezbollah, Iran's primary proxy in the region, enjoys a monopoly of military and political power in Lebanon, with the help of the Iranian Quds Force. The Hezbollah-Iran axis has imported some 130,000 projectiles into Lebanon, turning the country into one big rocket launching base aimed at Israel. This represents an exponential jump compared to the 10,000 rockets that were in Hezbollah's arsenal on the eve of the Second Lebanon War in 2006.
Most of the projectiles in Hezbollah's inventory are unguided, and Iran has made a new push in recent months to deliver guidance systems to the group. These would enable Hezbollah to convert some of its projectiles into precision-guided missiles, which could be used to strategically threaten vital Israeli targets like airports, seaports, power plants, military bases, and high-profile buildings.
Israel's determination to stop Hezbollah from upgrading its firepower in this way found expression on September 17, when Israeli fighter jets struck an Iranian shipment of guidance kit components near Latakia, on the Syrian coastline. That strike triggered massive Syrian anti-aircraft fire, bringing down a Russian intelligence aircraft and killing 15 crew members. The incident sparked a major Russian-Israeli crisis that has yet to be resolved.
The Iranians then appeared to switch tactics, flying guidance components in cargo flights directly into Beirut's Rafic Hariri International Airport.
At the end of September last year, PM Netanyahu and the IDF Spokesman's Unit exposed the existence of multiple underground sites for the conversion of unguided rockets into precision missiles. One of the sites was adjacent to the airport.
"Hezbollah's senior members took a deliberate decision to shift the center of gravity of the precision missile project, which they have been working on for a while, to the civilian area in the heart of Beirut," the IDF stated on September 27.
Three months after these warnings, Netanyahu said at the end of December 2018 that Hezbollah had shut down these conversion centers, adding that the organization has, "at most, a few dozen precision-guided missiles" at this time.
Netanyahu said that Israel's security forces have stopped Hezbollah from possessing thousands of such missiles. These developments illustrate the fact that unlike in Syria, Israel is deeply reluctant to employ air power in Lebanon to enforce its red lines, and prefers to rely on messaging and deterrence through speeches and the media as well as through potential alleged activities that are more discreet than air power.
This is an indication that mutual deterrence between Israel and Hezbollah remains in effect. An unwritten agreement between Israel and Hezbollah began to crystallize in 2014, after Israel allegedly struck a Hezbollah weapons convoy on the Syrian-Lebanese border and Hezbollah set off border bombs that targeted an IDF convoy traveling in Har Dov, causing damage but no injuries.
Following the incident, Nasrallah said in an interview that Israeli attacks in or near Lebanon would draw rapid retaliation, hinting that this was not the case regarding strikes in Syria.
This quiet understanding would become irrelevant if Lebanon becomes the site of precision missile conversion operations. Israel's multiple warnings to Nasrallah and his Iranian backers have delivered that message.
Hezbollah, for its part, felt the need to replenish its own deterrence against Israel by releasing a video at the start of December with Google Earth satellite images and coordinates of sensitive targets across Israel, threatening strikes against them. The video included a snippet from a speech by Nasrallah in which he warned that his organization "will respond" if Israel hits targets in Lebanon.
The ability of Israel and Hezbollah to apparently defuse the "Lebanese [precision] missile crisis" of 2018 without going to war is no guarantee that they will repeat such a de-escalation this year.
It seems safe to assume that the newly appointed IDF Chief of Staff, Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi, who has monitored Hezbollah's force build-up both as Northern Command chief and as Military Intelligence commander, will remain busy with this issue during his term.
For now, Israel has been able to enforce its red lines on precision missile production in Lebanon through the use of deterrence and messaging. It remains unclear whether those same tactics will be effective the next time the Iranian axis tries to set up precision missile factories on Lebanese soil.
Great of the Union - Bill Wilson - www.dailyjot.com
Even CBS's and CNN's polling (always skewed sampling toward liberals) had to tip their hat to President Donald Trump's State of the Union address. The CBS instant poll showed a 72% approval rating on his immigration plan while the CNN poll indicated 76% approval overall. Trump struck a tone of unification from the very beginning of his speech, saying "Many of us campaigned on the same core promises: to defend American jobs and demand fair trade for American workers; to rebuild and revitalize our Nation's infrastructure; to reduce the price of healthcare and prescription drugs; to create an immigration system that is safe, lawful, modern and secure; and to pursue a foreign policy that puts America's interests first."
Trump called for the parties to work together, "But we must reject the politics of revenge, resistance, and retribution - and embrace the boundless potential of cooperation, compromise, and the common good. Together, we can break decades of political stalemate. We can bridge old divisions, heal old wounds, build new coalitions, forge new solutions, and unlock the extraordinary promise of America's future. The decision is ours to make. We must choose between greatness or gridlock, results or resistance, vision or vengeance, incredible progress or pointless destruction. Tonight, I ask you to choose greatness."
He characterized immigration policy as a moral issue: "We have a moral duty to create an immigration system that protects the lives and jobs of our citizens. This includes our obligation to the millions of immigrants living here today, who followed the rules and respected our laws. Legal immigrants enrich our Nation and strengthen our society in countless ways. I want people to come into our country, but they have to come in legally. Tonight, I am asking you to defend our very dangerous southern border out of love and devotion to our fellow citizens and to our country. No issue better illustrates the divide between America's working class and America's political class than illegal immigration. Wealthy politicians and donors push for open borders while living their lives behind walls and gates and guards."
Senator Bernie Sanders bristled when Trump promised, "Here, in the United States, we are alarmed by new calls to adopt socialism in our country. America was founded on liberty and independence -- not government coercion, domination, and control. We are born free, and we will stay free. Tonight, we renew our resolve that America will never be a socialist country." Therein, his entire speech was one of accomplishment and a call to unity. One that set America straight on what he has done, and on the incredible challenge he faces-a lack of unity. Sadly, this obstruction and hate environment will likely continue. As Christ said in Mark 3:25, "And if a house be divided against itself, that house cannot stand." At least Trump made an effort at unification and trying to work together, if it doesn't happen, it's on the obstructionists.
Iran's strategy for control of Syria - a look - Jonathan Spyer - https://www.jpost.com/printarticle.aspx?id=579385
One way Iran's efforts are taking place are below the official Syrian state structures - in the arming and sponsoring of Iran-controlled paramilitary formations on Syria soil.
Recent statements by a number of Israeli officials have claimed a degree of success in Israel's efforts to contain and roll back Iran's entrenchment in Syria. But while Israel's tactical successes are certainly notable and impressive, the big picture is that Iran's influence and strength in Syria continues to deepen and expand.
Iran's efforts are taking place at three levels: below the official Syrian state structures - in the arming and sponsoring of Iran-controlled paramilitary formations on Syria soil, within the Syrian state - in the control of institutions that are officially organs of the regime, and above the state, in the pursuit of formal links between the Iranian and Syrian regimes. As Tehran seeks to impose its influence on Assad's Syria in the emergent post-rebellion period, meanwhile, there are indications that its project is running up against the rival plans and ambitions of the Russians.
A report by the generally reliable Syrian Observatory for Human Rights this week described in detail the nature of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps's efforts to entrench its presence in a single, significant Syrian town: al-Mayadin, west of the strategically important Albukamal border crossing between Iraq and Syria, and just west of the Euphrates River.
The Observatory described extensive recruitment of local Syrians, including individuals who were formerly involved with the armed opposition, into the ranks of Iran's various paramilitary "Syrian Hezbollah" type structures that have been established in Syria. The report noted that the incentives given to entice individuals into these structures included a monthly salary of between $150-300, allowing individuals a variety of options as to where they wish to serve, and immunity from arrest at the hands of regime security forces.
The report also noted that the IRGC and Lebanese Hezbollah have positioned themselves in key areas of al-Mayadin, and are maintaining exclusive control of these areas (i.e., without cooperation with, or permission sought from, the forces of the Assad regime).
Among a number of specific examples quoted in this regard, "Members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards took over the al-Nurain Mosque and houses around it on Korniche Street in the city, where they prevented civilians, members of regime forces, and NDF from entering or passing through the area, without orders from the command forces located in al-Mayadin," while "members of the Lebanese Hezbollah took over the area extending from al-Finsh junction to Al Shuaibi Villa at al-Arba'in Street in al-Mayadin city, and prevented entry and exit except by orders of them."
Control of al-Mayadin and its environs matters because it is located along Highway 4, which is the only road leading out of the Albukamal border crossing, which is currently controlled by the IRGC and its allies. From al-Mayadin, Route 4 reaches Deir al-Zor, where it connects to the M20 highway, which heads west in the direction of Damascus, or, if a traveler prefers, toward al-Qusayr and the Lebanese border.
That is, the specific example of al-Mayadin shows the means by which Iran seeks to maintain exclusive control along vital nodes in Syria, for the passage of personnel and mat�riel, in the direction of its allies in Lebanon or its enemies in Israel, according to the needs of the moment.
THE ACTIVITIES of the IRGC on the ground in such locations as al-Mayadin go hand in hand with the more conventional, regime-to-regime relations that Tehran maintains with Assad in Damascus.
This week, for example, Iranian Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri was in Syria, where he signed a number of economic agreements and met with Assad. The agreements, 11 in number, together offer a road map for long-term strategic economic cooperation between Iran and Syria. They cover a variety of areas, including "education, housing, public works, railroads and investments," according to a report by the Syrian Arab News Agency, the regime's official media outlet.
Jahangiri's visit was the latest indication of concerted Iranian efforts to secure a major role in the massive project of reconstruction within the 60% of Syria currently controlled by the regime. The UN estimates the cost of reconstruction in war-torn Syria at around $400 billion. Earlier landmarks in this process include a military cooperation agreement concluded in August 2018, a 2017 memorandum of understanding for the extraction of phosphates from the al-Sharqiya mine southwest of Palmyra (one of the largest such mines in Syria), and an MOU for the restoration by Iran of over 2000 MW of electrical power production capacity.
There is even a putative plan for an Iran-Syria rail link, to run from the Shalamcheh border crossing between Iran and Iraq, via Basra in southern Iraq and eventually to Latakia on Syria's Mediterranean coast. Such projects are more in the line of visions at present. But they demonstrate the depth and scope of Iran's plans for the area between its western borders and the Mediterranean.
A THIRD element in the Iranian ambition lies within the structures of the official Syrian state. Iran has invested heavily in the creation of Basij-style paramilitary structures under its control within the Syrian security forces - such as the National Defense Forces. Evidence is now also emerging that conventional military units of the Syrian Arab Army are also identified closely with the Iranian interest. The evidence in question suggests that this is leading to fissures, as these units face off against other formations more closely allied with the Russian interest in Syria.
A report in the opposition-linked Ana Press this week, confirmed by additional Syrian sources and also reported in Der Spiegel and by the Turkish Anadolu Agency, detailed clashes on January 19 in the Hama area between Col. Soheil Hassan's 5th Corps, associated with the Russian interest, and Maher Assad's 4th Division, generally seen as closely linked to the IRGC.
According to the report, a number of fighters from both units were killed in the Sahel al-Ghab area in Hama, after a dispute about control of the area. These incidents show the extent to which the Russian and Iranian projects have the potential for collision, especially in the all-important area of control and influence within the official security structures of the Syrian state.
Taken together, all this evidence points to a deep, long-term Iranian strategic plan by which Tehran means to dominate the Syrian space in the period ahead. The blueprint being applied is clearly that which has achieved such impressive results in Lebanon, and later in Iraq. According to this approach, Iran is activating a variety of tools below, within and above the structures of the Syrian state. The intention is to achieve a level of penetration and influence that will make their ambitions invulnerable both to superior Israeli air power and intelligence, and to the opposing project for domination of Syria currently being undertaken by Russia. The results of all this remain to be seen.
Cheerleaders for Antichrist - Terry James - https://www.raptureready.com/category/nearing-midnight/
The chamber exploded in wild clapping, whistling, and thunderous applause that went on for a number of minutes. The cheering wasn't for a national championship during the current frenzy over national championships, however. The exultation was for the announcement that the New York state legislature had just passed the Reproductive Health Act.
New York Democrat Governor Andrew Cuomo then signed the piece of legislation into law. In doing so, he-obviously greatly encouraged by the wild cheering of the legislators-gleefully said, "I am directing that New York's landmarks be lit in pink to celebrate this achievement and shine a bright light forward for the rest of the nation to follow."
He then proceeded to do just that, lighting the World Trade Tower in a brilliant, pink color.
He added, "The Reproductive Health Act is a historic victory for New Yorkers and for our progressive values."
The ravenous jubilation over the "achievement" has at its center legitimizing the murder of babies, both in and out of their mother's wombs, right up until the birth and beyond.
Attempts have been made for many years to get such legislation made into law. The Republican Senate, until now, managed to block the efforts. This time, with the Republican numbers insufficient to stop it, the assembly passed it 92-47.
One legislator summed up the law that takes away all rights of the unborn child to enjoy the right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness:
"We have a president who's made it very, very clear that he wants to overturn Roe v. Wade," Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins declared before the vote. "Today, here in New York, we are saying no [...] and we're not just saying no. We're saying that here in New York, women's health matters. We're saying here in New York, women's lives matter. We're saying here in New York, women's decisions matter."
Ms Stewart thereby voiced, wittingly or unwittingly, the rebellious declaration that mankind has exhibited down through the millennia: We need no God to rule over us is the never-ending mantra while shaking a collective fist in the Almighty's face.
The cheer that erupted in the New York legislature chamber that day instead-again, wittingly or unwittingly-was fulfilling Bible prophecy that will, perhaps very soon, bring rulership of the god of this world. Antichrist awaits in the shadowy wings of this ever-darkening time as the Tribulation looms. They were cheering for that man of sin who will give them not only the infanticide they think is such a glorious thing, but genocide that will force them to worship and obey him if they don't want to be among those murdered. They are cheering on a holocaust of dimensions unimaginable, even when considering the horrendous one of Hitler's making.
These are cheering the likes of Planned Parenthood, an organization inspired by Margaret Sanger, a woman with a globalist view who championed eugenics-the killing of inferior races, black people in particular-in order to bring about racial purity. Doing so, she proposed, was the way to perfect mankind. All dark races are, she postulated, inferior.
Hitler and the Nazi ideology absorbed her Satan-inspired madness.
With Mr. Cuomo's blatant decision to light the World Trade tower in pink to honor the occasion and the women who see the murder of babies as a glorious thing, thoughts, I must admit, sparked within my own mind: Will the Lord respond in some way to this unbelievably rebellious and deliberate shaking of the fist in His face?
I'm sure you might have entertained similar thoughts. To bathe in pink the Tower that replaced the Twin Towers where three thousand lost their lives seems not just a rebellious act by man, but an act of hatred against the Creator of all things inspired by the greatest of all rebels.
I guess the jury is still out on whether the Lord will, in the near term, respond in some way to this act of what seems to me the epitome of this generation's depravity and ungodliness. Certainly, we can be absolutely assured that this and all sin will be dealt with in a heavenly-appropriate way on one eternal day. But, being human and quite vindictive in attitude at some points in my appraisal of things, I would like to... Well, I won't verbalize it here because then you wouldn't think of me as the saintly scrivener I would have myself to be in your eyes.
I receive emails weekly expressing that the senders long for the Rapture. They ask, rhetorically: Why has the Lord not put an end to all this evil, and taken us home?
The answer burns in my thoughts. There are billions of people on the planet who are being called by the Holy Spirit at every given moment. America, where the gospel has saturated culture and society for decades, is not Heaven's only consideration. Millions around the world are God's omniscient concern. Many are coming to Him for salvation daily. He, alone, knows when that final person to be born again into His family will accept Christ for salvation during this Age of Grace.
The Apostle Peter gave us a prophetic glimpse of our Lord's ways and thoughts being high above our own, and of His patience with mankind:
Beloved, be not ignorant of this one thing, that one day is with the Lord as a thousand years, and a thousand years as one day. The Lord is not slack concerning his promise, as some men count slackness; but is longsuffering to us-ward, not willing that any should perish, but that all should come to repentance. (2 Peter 3:7-11)
All that said, those who are-wittingly or unwittingly-cheerleaders for Antichrist are waging unholy warfare these days in ways that are portentous. It is a dangerous matter to shake a fist in His holy face.
He accepted me into His family through my repentance and belief in the death, burial and resurrection of His Son. He did the same for many of you reading this commentary. In the matter of being sinners, these who demonstrate a hatred for the God who created them are no worse sinners than were we. The Lord wants to welcome them into His eternal kingdom so they won't have to endure the coming years of wrath He must pour upon those who remain rebels.
If you don't know Him through His Son, Jesus Christ, turn to Him in repentance at this moment. It is just this simple.
"That if you will confess with your mouth the Lord Jesus, and will believe in your heart that God has raised him from the dead, you will be saved" (Romans 10:9).
http://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=2951
Israel's now overt war against Iran has moved to the airwaves as well. At the Cybertech2019 conference held last week in Tel Aviv, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, "Iran threatens us in many other ways. They issued ... threats that say they'll destroy us. ... We're not oblivious to these threats. They don't impress us because we know what our power is, both in defense and in offense."
Netanyahu was responding to threats made by Hossein Salami, Iran's second-in-command of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who threatened recently to "eliminate" Israel if it tries to attack Iran. He said, "Our goal is to eradicate Israel from the world's political map."
Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani, a close aide to Iranian leader Ali Khamenei, threatened Israel as well, saying Iran would continue to develop its ballistic-missile capabilities to counter Israel's "acts of stupidity."
On Jan. 29, Dan Coats, U.S. director of national intelligence, warned of increased chances of a regional war when he told the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence that "Israeli strikes that result in Iranian casualties increase the likelihood of Iranian conventional retaliation against Israel."
In Coats's view, Israel has not succeeded in deterring Iran from building up its military presence in Syria.
Indeed, Israel's President Reuven Rivlin, speaking at the 11th annual INSS conference that just took place from Jan. 29-31 in Tel Aviv, warned that Iran will likely "intensify its responses" to Israeli strikes in Syria and will "retaliate with greater force."
Efraim Inbar, president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, agrees with Coats. Inbar told JNS, "It's a continuation of what we've seen before. We tried to prevent the enrichment of the military presence of Iran in Syria. So far, we have been successful in preventing [them from] establishing air bases and naval bases, and probably also bases for launching missiles.
And we see a determined effort on the part of Israel, which is not likely to stop. On the other hand, we see a similar determined effort on the part of Iran. It's not clear that so far we have been successful in deterring them from continuing."
"I think the goal is clear--to establish an additional front near northern Israel on the other side of the Golan Heights, and they believe they will be able to establish something similar to what they have established successfully in Lebanon," said Inbar.
"To some extent, our determined effort is a clear admission that we were wrong about Lebanon. For years, we were saying that [Hezbollah's] missiles will get old and not be effective, and we learned the hard lesson in 2006. So this is part of the Israeli learning curve. We are determined not to repeat this experience."
Asked if Israel would pursue Iran in Iraq even if it pushed Iran out of Syria, he said, "There are reports of Israeli military activities in Iraq as well. Definitely we will try to do it anywhere possible. Iran is a nuclear issue. It's a separate issue from Iran establishing a front for a war of attrition against Israel.
We will continue to fight the Iranians and their proxies in Syria and elsewhere probably. A war of attrition will not solve the nuclear issue. [Syrian president Bashar] Assad is linked, of course, to the Russian intervention, and we have no interest in entering into a conflict with the Russians. As long as Assad is not helping Iran, we do not care what kind of regime is beyond our borders."
'The Iranians have yet to be deterred'
Norman Roule, a former senior U.S. intelligence official and a senior adviser to United Against Nuclear Iran, also agreed with Coats. He told JNS, "Israel has now conducted hundreds of strikes, and the Iranians continue to build this infrastructure. Thus, the logical explanation is what Israel is doing is not yet a sufficient deterrent to Iran and the Quds Force to keep it from conducting these activities in the future. ... The Iranians have yet to be deterred. ... Iran has been able to move the border of confrontation to its adversary's doorsteps, while at the same time removing it from its own border."
"When you speak to policymakers around the world and the region, their first comment is that they wish to avoid a regional conventional war," said Roule. "Well, let's look at what we've got. We've had hundreds of Israeli airstrikes into Syria. I'd call that an air war. We've had hundreds of [Iranian-backed] missiles fired into Saudi Arabia. I'd call that a missile war.
We've had naval activity, and we have finally some small numbers of Iranian ground forces in the Middle East. We have an Iranian war against the region already ongoing, but because it's been disaggregated, it receives far less international attention than it should. The danger with all this is that Iran is changing the DNA of the region."
He pointed out that Israel has "certainly been able to conduct multiple strikes against Syria, which have prevented the Iranians from establishing an infrastructure in that country. And the Quds force has significantly failed to establish an infrastructure in the Golan. This has also shown that Russia has shown some weakness. They have not been able to stop Iran from conducting these activities. They have not been able to stop Israel or the United States from punishing Iran or Bashar al-Assad."
Asked what it would take for Iran to be deterred, Roule said, "It requires multilateral diplomatic and economic pressure of sufficient stature to cause the Iranians to believe that actions will risk an economic pressure that might threaten regime stability. ... They are going through a very difficult period. They are facing unprecedented and simultaneous demographic, economic, ecological, political and social crises.
They are also looking at the succession of perhaps a new supreme leader and a presidential election in 2021. Iran needs stability now more than ever, but Iran needs to know that the international community is opposed to its actions."
Roule warned that any series of events could easily spiral into a regional war. "Unless the international community sets a real red line with the Iranians--and enforces that red line, and that involves some risk--Iran may believe there are no red lines and continue to push until they achieve a success such as a terrorist action, a missile strike [and/or] an armed drone strike, which could then compel the wounded party to undertake actions that provoke the regional war we all wish to avoid."
"Iran has a very carefully considered calculation as to what they can achieve without facing serious consequences," he continued. "And that is a statement on the international community's response to terrorism, to missile proliferation, not just missiles in Iran's own inventory that can strike Israel, but the missile technology they have provided to Hezbollah and to the Houthis, which is unacceptable.
The drone attack that was conducted by the Houthis against the Yemenite government recently used the drone that was based on an Iranian system. That was the first action by a government--Iran in this case--using a proxy to kill an official of another government, I believe, in history."
Asked if Iran will ultimately fire missiles at Israel, Roule said "we have seen the Iranians use the excuse of actions against ISIS to demonstrate their capacity to fire ballistic missiles into Syria. There are reports they have provided ballistic missiles to the Iraqis.
I think for Israel, there is a danger not only that Iran might do this at some point in the future, but that they will give these weapons to Iraqi Shi'ite or certainly to Lebanese Hezbollah, which would then undertake this without Iran receiving any criticism from the international community because of Russian protection at the United Nations Security Council."
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