Diplomacy: 'Deal of the century' will set new baseline for Mideast diplomacy - By Herb Keinon -
The Trump peace plan may be less about reaching a final settlement now, and more about setting down new parameters for a changed reality.
In a twist to the "after-the-hagim [holidays]" line ubiquitous here around Passover and Rosh Hashanah, Jared Kushner - US President Donald Trump's son-in-law and senior adviser - said Tuesday that the long-awaited Trump peace blueprint will be rolled out "after Ramadan."
"We were getting ready [to roll out the plan] at the end of last year, and then they called for Israeli elections," Kushner said at the 2019 TIME 100 Summit trumpeting the magazine's selection last week of the 100 most influential people in the world. "Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu had a great victory, and he's in the middle of forming his coalition. Once that's done, we'll probably be in the middle of Ramadan. So we'll wait until after Ramadan and then we'll put our plan out."
Or not.
This is not the first time the "after Ramadan" timetable has been used by this administration in reference to when it will present its "deal of the century."
In the beginning of 2018, reports emerged that the plan would be released in the spring; in the spring the reports were that it would be released after Ramadan in June; after Ramadan the speculation was that it would be released in early fall. By then, however, people speculated - correctly, as it turned out - that it would not be released before the US midterm elections on November 6, so as not to do anything to alienate Trump's strongly pro-Israel Evangelical base.
In September, Trump said that he would be releasing the plan in two to four months. But then the new Israeli elections were called in December, and it became clear that the plan would not be issued during the campaign, so as not to complicate matters for Netanyahu.
If Netanyahu now needs all 42 days at his disposal to form a government, that period will end on May 29. Ramadan is expected to begin this year on May 7, and end on June 4. Which means that on June 5 the moon and stars will be aligned just right for the rollout of the plan.
Realistically, there will then be about a three-month window for the plan to be presented, until America's Labor Day, September 2, when the US presidential election campaign will shift into high gear before the primaries in the first six months of 2020. And during that campaign, Trump will again be averse to doing anything that might alienate his strongly pro-Israel Evangelical base.
Kushner sounded resolute Tuesday about presenting the plan, but so did Trump himself last September, only to be overtaken by events. New reasons may be found after Ramadan to postpone its presentation as well.
For instance, perhaps Netanyahu, saddled with a hard-right government that he knows will not support some of the concessions that Israel will inevitably be asked to make under the plan, may ask Trump not to unveil it, so as not to endanger his government.
Or perhaps Trump will listen to some voices being raised in Washington entreating him not to present a plan that has no chance of succeeding - primarily because the Palestinians have already rejected it, sight unseen - since to do so would only make a bad situation worse.
One of the more prominent voices in this school of thought is that of Robert Satloff, executive director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Two weeks ago, he wrote a piece on the Foreign Policy magazine's website calling on Trump not to present his plan, saying it faced sure rejection and as a result would set back US interests in three critical areas: "It might lead to annexation of the West Bank; it could give the Saudi government leverage over the United States that it doesn't currently have; and it would distract from Trump's signature achievement of putting real pressure on Iran's government."
According to Satloff's logic, the current Israeli-Palestinian status quo is far from perfect, but it has led to a "reasonably well-functioning governing entity" in the West Bank, keeping it from becoming a "platform for rocket and terrorist attacks against Israel."
This status quo would come tumbling down, he warned, if Abbas rejects the plan - as he has said he would. "In turn, Israeli rightists will seize on Abbas's 'no' to argue that Israel has no negotiating partner, gutting a key rationale for keeping the status quo alive."
In addition, he argued, the plan will need major Saudi backing to succeed, giving the Saudis dangerous leverage over US policy, and it would also "distract from the president's signature achievement in the Middle East: the unexpectedly effective impact of the so-called maximum pressure campaign on Iran."
ON TUESDAY, however, Kushner did not sound like someone who was going to jettison a plan he has been working on for two years. While revealing nothing of the blueprint's details - including whether it would advocate a two-state solution - he did say that the Trump peace team is trying a different approach.
"We've tried to do it a little bit differently," Kushner said. "Normally, they [Mideast mediators] start with a process and then hope that the process leads to a resolution for something to happen. What we've done is the opposite. We've done very extensive research and a lot of talking to a lot of people. We're not trying to impose our will. I think the document that you will see, which is a very detailed proposal, is something we created by engaging a lot of people in the region, and people who have worked on this in the past.
"I hope it is a very comprehensive vision for what can be, if people are willing to make some hard decisions. So what we've done is we started with a proposed solution, and then we will work on a process to try to get there."
In other words, instead of getting a negotiating process rolling that the organizers hope will then lead the sides to come to some kind of an agreement, the Trump administration is working backward: present a comprehensive solution first, and then figure out how to get there.
There are various reasons, diplomatic officials have explained, for this approach, one of which is the realization that the Trump administration - which Netanyahu has said is the most supportive administration Israel has ever worked with - will not be there forever, and that it could indeed be turned out of office in November 2020.
That being the case, the administration has some 20 months in which it can put down new markers on Middle East issues and set new parameters.
There is a sense that the political pendulum in the US swings drastically from one extreme to the next - from George W. Bush to Barack Obama, and then from Obama to Trump - and that it could next swing to Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders or Beto O'Rourke.
As such, one of the aims of the plan - which even the most optimistic in the Trump peace team must realize has a slim chance of success, considering the numerous forces already lining up against it, including the PA, some European countries and the EU foreign policy bureaucracy in Brussels - is perhaps less about reaching a final settlement now, and more about setting down a new set of facts: new parameters.
This administration, which in addition to Trump includes strong pro-Israel voices such as those of Vice President Mike Pence, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Adviser John Bolton, does not want to leave Washington with the last American statement on the Middle East being Obama's decision in the waning days of his term in 2016 not to veto an anti-settlement resolution in the UN Security Council, thereby placing the bulk of the onus for the stalemated peace process on Israel.
The administration also does not want the final word on the matter to be the Clinton Parameters of 2000 - guidelines for a permanent-status agreement based on a Palestinian state on 94%-96% of the territories and with Jerusalem as the capital of two states.
Much has changed since then - the Second Intifada and the Gaza withdrawal have changed the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the "Arab Spring" has fundamentally changed the Middle East - and it is expected that the Trump plan will reflect those changes, something that could set the narrative for the next decade, just as the Clinton Parameters have dominated the conversation on peacemaking since 2000.
The plan, whose details have remained a closely guarded secret, is expected to be based around a set of principles: significantly improving Palestinian lives; safeguarding Israeli security; Jerusalem as Israel's capital, though the borders there may be negotiable; not uprooting anyone from anywhere, including Jews in the settlements; a new definition of refugees; and some kind of Palestinian state, though likely to be along the lines of Netanyahu's idea of a state-minus.
Animating the discussion on Israel inside the administration since Trump took power in 2017 is the sense that Israel is America's most important ally in the Middle East, and that - as such - Washington does not want to weaken it in any way. A call to uproot settlements, which would lead to significant domestic strife, is seen by some in the administration as a move that could significantly weaken Israel, and as such something that should be avoided.
Likewise, the US does not want to weaken Jordan - another key Mideast ally - and as such does not want to set up a possible failed state in the West Bank that could threaten the Hashemite Kingdom. With enough problems already on its northern border with Syria and on its eastern border with Iraq, the last thing Jordan needs is a failed state on its western frontier.
The administration, which has devoted a lot of time and man hours to the plan, obviously hopes that it will be accepted - when it is eventually presented.
Kushner, during his comments on Tuesday, said that when the sides look at the proposal, "I am hopeful that what they'll do is to say, 'Look, there are some compromises here, but at the end of the day this is really a framework that can allow us to make our lives all materially better.' And we'll see if the leadership on both sides has the courage to take the lead to try to go forward."
And, if not, at least a new marker will have been set.
Even some sharp critics of Trump's foreign policy, such as Richard Haas, a former US diplomat who is now the president of the Council on Foreign Relations, acknowledge that the time has come to look at the Middle East differently.
In a piece this week in Project Syndicate where he said that there is little chance that the Trump plan would succeed, he nevertheless concluded that: "It is time for a paradigm shift in how we think about the Middle East, not because a better diplomatic model has presented itself (it has not), but because the current paradigm is increasingly at odds with reality."
The coup intensifies - Bill Wilson -
While President Donald Trump's approval rating continues to decline in the aftermath of the Democratic Party and media onslaught about obstruction of justice in the Mueller Report-what the report specifically says that there were no charges levied, the Democratic coup-makers continue to fabricate a narrative that the President should be impeached. This is nothing short of a nearly three-year campaign to remove a duly-elected president from office while the real business of running the nation, solving its many challenges, and the divisive visceral continues by opposition to the President. Yet there is no substantial evidence to back the claims while the media continues hammering away at all facets of the administration.
The battle is evident: partisan party politics, not what is best for America. Trump identified it in a sentence when he told the Washington Post that he didn't want former members of his Administration testifying before Congress. He said, "I don't want people testifying to a party, because that is what they're doing if they do this." The "this" is referring to former White House personnel security director Carl Kline, who was subpoenaed by Democrats who are "investigating" anything and everything they can about Trump. Congressman Elijah Cummings (D-Md), chairman of the House Oversight Committee stated: "It appears that the president believes that the Constitution does not apply to this White House...that he may obstruct attempts by Congress to conduct oversight."
This is the buzz word in the coup-inspired narrative-obstruction. The Democrats believe that the Mueller Report didn't go far enough to bring obstruction of justice charges against Trump. So they are taking it upon themselves to label Trump as an obstructionist by investigating everything they can think of, including his tax returns for the past six years. AP reports that
Trump and his business organization sued Cummings to block a subpoena that seeks years of the president's financial records. The complaint, filed in federal court in Washington, said a subpoena from Cummings "has no legitimate legislative purpose" and accused the Democrats of harassing Trump.
CBS reports that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) held a conference call with the chairs of several powerful committees to discuss the Democrat's path forward following the Mueller Report. She told the Democrat leaders (sic coup leaders) that the House should continue committee investigations into the president. This current onslaught is a coup-narrative designed to shout obstruction while at the same time the Democrats are obstructing the business of America and the functions of government. As in 1 Timothy 3:16, "But evil men and seducers shall grow worse and worse, deceiving, and being deceived." Take heed that you are not deceived by these people.
The coup-makers frenzy - Bill Wilson -
Rasmussen Reports is the only reliable source that is tacking presidential approval ratings across America. It indicates that the three day average prior to April before the redacted Mueller Report was released to the public President Donald Trump's approval rating was 53%. After the release, the average dropped to 49%, despite no new revelations against the President. During that time, the news media and the Democratic Party leadership doubled down on their "obstruction" narrative and started reading the "impeachment" word from their shared talking points. This is evidence of the power of the negative attacks in just a few hours. It is also the markings of one more coup attempt by the neo-communists.
Abandoned is any pretense of the facts. Just as predicted by The Daily Jot, these coup-makers are pointing toward the part in the report about not exonerating Trump on obstruction of justice, although not finding enough grounds to suggest legal action against the president or his associates. So now the leftists in Congress believe they know better than the person they essentially hand-picked to conduct an investigation that they believed would affirm their wildest accusations. It didn't, leaving the door open for further Congressional investigations, subpoenas and, of course, continued media bombardment that the president is a criminal.
This totally ignores the facts, AND the need to get on with working to solve some of the very challenges America elected both these Congressional obstructionists and the president to solve. Mueller, however, left the door wide open for the coup-makers to continue their obstruction of government and communist-style investigations at taxpayer expense for as long as they would like. But the report "identifies no actions that, in our judgment, constitute obstructive conduct, had a nexus to a pending or contemplated proceeding, and were done with corrupt intent, each of which, under the Department's principles of federal prosecution guiding charging decisions, would need to be proven beyond a reasonable doubt to establish an obstruction-of justice offense."
It doesn't matter to the coup-makers. They are playing the public opinion game. In a 24-hour period, they chipped away at the president's job approval rating, and they will continue their false and negative narrative so long as they see it working. . So the coup will continue with the coup-makers demanding further investigations. It is time We the People demand an end to this nonsensical cover up to the dastardly doings with Russia by the Clintons, the immediate past president and the Democratic National Committee. But then again, as Jeremiah 6:14 states, "They have healed also the hurt of the daughter of my people lightly, saying, Peace, peace; when there is no peace."
While the nation perishes - Bill Wilson -
Daily Jot sources with first-hand knowledge of the situation at the US-Mexico border have been expressing frustration about the lack of attention the crisis is receiving in Washington, D.C. When asked if the conditions there were as bad as being reported, one source said, "Far worse." Concerns are that the crossings into the US are bringing with them disease, drugs, crime, and most unfortunately, human trafficking. Facilities are stressed to the max. Border patrol personnel are frustrated, and there seems to be no end in sight to throttle the massive invasion coming through Mexico to the US. One reliable inside source gave a detailed assessment of the problems, which are well known to those trying to deal with them.
He writes, "For you information, I saw a Memo today that says in the first six months of this fiscal year (Oct-Mar), the U.S. Border Patrol reported 361,000 apprehensions across the Southwest border. This exceeds all apprehensions in Fiscal Year 2017, and is twice as many compared to this timeframe last year. Over 225,000 of those apprehended - 62 percent - are family units and unaccompanied children mostly from Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador. The Memo went on to say these vulnerable populations need a special level of care while in custody and the Border Patrol simply does not have facilities or the personnel needed to care for, transport and process them, and "In short, this crisis has overwhelmed the Border Patrol's capacity and resources.""
He continued: "I personally don't know the conditions in those three named countries. If something could be done to help those small countries so their own citizens could have a hope to build a life in their own land, it would help on all fronts. There are those in Congress who are complaining that President Trump isn't doing anything about that....but one can't ignore the crisis at the Border either...Politicians should come together to address both sides of the problem....Oh wait, that's the REAL problem, isn't it? They are politicians and not leaders!! Wasting all their time attacking each other and NEVER ADDRESSING, LET ALONE SOLVING, ANY REAL PROBLEMS OR ISSUES FACING THE PEOPLE OF OUR OWN COUNTRY. The whole of Congress is a disgrace - each individual, bar none - for their failure to lead."
Ezekiel 22:30 is often quoted as an encouraging verse. Part A says, "And I sought for a man among them, that should build up the wall, and stand in the gap before me for the land, that I should not destroy it." What is often not quoted from this verse is the rest of it. Part B says, "but I found none." America is in a position right now that there are no statesmen to light the way to solve our many challenges. They are too busy fighting one another, standing in the path of progress, while the enemy floods the gaps in the wall. So many people ask me "What can be done." It is so difficult to say. It starts with prayer. May we come to unity in faith, wisdom and action. We need those who will stand in the gap that we as a people do not perish.
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