TRUMP WATCH: 7.13.19 - Trump's Iran Sanctions Face Seven Fallacies

Trump's Iran Sanctions Face Seven Fallacies - by Amir Taheri - https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/14499/trump-iran-sanctions-fallacies

 

As President Donald Trump tightens the screws on the current ruling elite in Tehran, the debate on the possible consequences of his policy rages on in American media, think tanks and political circles. Moreover, because Trump's constituency is outside such elite spheres the impression created is that his Iran policy either has failed already or is set to produce undesirable unintended consequences.

 

In that context, seven claims form the main themes of the campaign launched by the pro-Tehran lobby with support from sections of the US Democrat Party and others who dislike Trump for different reasons. The first claim is that sanctions do not work.

 

That theme is developed without spelling out what the intended aims of sanctions are. Trump has said his aim is to persuade the Khomeinist clique in Tehran to change aspects of its behavior abroad. In that sense, sanctions are working.

 

The mullahs have started to reduce their footprint in Syria and Yemen, without quite opting for total withdrawal. Offices in more than 30 Iranian cities, to enlist "volunteers" for "Jihad" in Syria, have been closed, and the recruitment of Afghan and Pakistani mercenaries has stopped. Tehran's military and diplomatic presence in Yemen has been downsized, ostensibly for security reasons. Smuggling arms to Houthis continues albeit at a reduced rate.

 

Cash-flow problems caused by sanctions have also forced the mullahs to cut the stipends of proxies, notably the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Palestinian "Islamic Jihad," by around 10 percent with more cuts envisaged. Tehran has also been forced to swallow the disbanding of the Iraqi Hashd al-Shaabai (Popular Mobilization) which is given 30 days to disarm and become a political party or merge into Iraqi Army under the Prime Minister's command.

 

More importantly, perhaps, the mullahs have frozen their missile program at the current range of 2000 kilometers. Cash-flow problems have also led to cuts in a number of political and business outfits controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). As the regime digs deeper into its war chest, accumulated over years, it is bound to cut expenditures on more of its adventures at home and abroad.

 

The second claim is that sanctions do work but harm ordinary Iranians. The usual rant about babies left with no milk and old ladies unable to replace pacemakers is underlined in numerous op-eds and think tank papers produced by the mullahs' lobby and their American supporters.

 

However, the Islamic Ministry of Health has rejected that claim with repeated assurances that since food, medical supplies, and other humanitarian items are under no sanctions, there are no shortages of the kind claimed.

 

The third claim is that the mullahs may opt for retaliatory measures against the US and allies. This they have already done by attacking oil tankers close to Fujairah and the Jask Peninsula in the Gulf of Oman and by shooting down an American drone. However, all that came in homeopathic doses with care taken not to cause human casualties or serious threat to the flow of oil.

 

Do not forget this is the regime that sent suicide bombers to kill 241 US Marines and 52 French paratroopers in their sleep in Beirut and, in the tanker war of 1987, wreaked havoc in international oil traffic. The mullahs' decision to increase their stockpile of low-enriched uranium, of no use for anything, above 300 kilograms, and to re-start producing plutonium, again of absolutely no use to anyone, is too farcical to merit further attention.

 

The fourth claim is that Trump's sanctions may turn the mullahs' regime into a cornered cat that, finding no way out, may spring in one's face. One or two US-based lobbyists have also compared the situation in Iran today with that in Germany after World War I when punitive measures imposed by allies helped destroy the Weimar Republic and bring Hitler to power. However, the Khomeinist regime is no democracy as the Weimar Republic was, and Ur-Fascist elements are already in control in Tehran.

 

The fifth claim is that Trump's sanctions are putting a strain on the trans-Atlantic alliance and that European powers may help the Khomeinist regime survive for decades as did the Castro outfit in Cuba.

 

However, there is a big difference between the two cases. In the case of Cuba, the US boycotted the island but did not impose sanctions on others trading with it. The Castro clique survived thanks to the support by the Soviet Union, Canada, Europe, and some Latin American nations. In contrast, Trump's sanctions are based on a brutal choice: If you trade with Iran, you cannot trade with the US!

 

Theoretically, any government can breach those sanctions by accepting to compensate businesses for damages caused by US "punishment" for trading with Iran. However, no European nation has agreed to do so, accepting a sharp fall in their trade with Iran, in the case of Germany around 45 percent.

 

The sixth claim is that sanctions may force Iran to quit the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and go blazing ahead to build the bomb. That claim, too, is fallacious. According to Islamic Foreign Minister Muhammad-Javad Zarif, Tehran needs to sell 1.5 million barrels of oil a day to cover current expenses including payment of military and civil service salaries. Last month Iran's oil exports fell to 500,000 barrels a day, the lowest since 1955. Provided sanctions are not loosened, building the bomb is a luxury Iran cannot afford.

 

The seventh claim is that Trump's sanctions strengthen hardline factions and weaken the "reformists" around President Hassan Rouhani. Since Rouhani and his associates have never said or even hinted, what it is they may want to reform, it is hard to speak of a "reformist" faction. Moreover, the extensive purge of the military currently undertaken by "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei does not seem to have affected any "moderates".

 

Those affected so far are the more crazy elements like the Baseej (Mobilization of the Dispossessed) chief General Ghulam Hussein Gahyb-Parvar who promoted a plan to turn the White House in Washington into a Hussayniehs (Shi'ite gathering place).

 

 

The revolution and the coup - Bill Wilson -

www.dailyjot.com

 

As we have focused our attention on patriotism and freedom in America, it may be time to reflect on the direction of this nation. In 2008, a revolution to remake America began. A coalition of the unrighteous-- progressives, socialists, communists and their various special interest minions--took over the country and began twisting the traditional moral and economic foundations of America. These people were not only wrong-minded and godless, they were the epitome of the failures of collectivism. As Romans 1:22 says, "Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools." As Jeremiah 10:15 reveals: "They are vanity, and the work of errors." Aided by revolutionaries in the news media, a revolution was afoot.

 

The scandals should have brought the revolutionary administration to its knees--neither Benghazi, nor Fast and Furious, nor IRS targeting or government spying stopped them from their appointed rounds. The revolution began pitting Americans against Americans, creating racial tension and augmenting it by fanning the flames with words of division disguised as words of peace. Socialist healthcare, challenges to traditional marriage, gun control measures, government attacks on Christian and church organizations, hateful rhetoric against all who disagreed, record spending and national debt without legally mandated budgets, the list goes on and on. Yet, despite all this, at the end of the second term, the revolution was poised to continue with the election of Hillary Clinton, heiress of the progressive manifesto for America.

 

As an insurance policy, the president, the Clinton campaign, and the Democratic National Committee martialed their deep state connections and paid for a false dossier claiming that Republican Donald Trump conspired with Russia to alter the 2016 presidential election. They figured that it would prevent voters from electing Trump, although all the media polls were showing a Clinton landslide. Clinton even challenged Trump on whether he would accept the results of the election if she won. His non-committal answer prompted Clinton to make a big deal out of Trump refusing to accept the results. In the end, it was Clinton who refused to accept the results, challenging the electoral college and fomenting an attempted coup.

 

What materialized was a deep-state, Democratic Party conspiracy to prevent Trump from becoming President. An FBI report indicated the FBI and the previous White House used the secret FISA court to spy on Trump, the visceral of FBI agents against Trump and in favor of Hillary Clinton, and general deep state chicanery. The entire "Russian" narrative accused Trump of exactly what his opponents were doing. Despite the FBI report, various reports by Congress, and the Mueller Special Counsel report turned up no evidence of Trump-Russian collusion, the coup-makers continue to try to remove the president from office. This coup to preserve the remake America revolution continues and we must suspend our disbelief otherwise the American ideal is great peril.

 

 The makings of the coup - Bill Wilson -

www.dailyjot.com

 

In February 2017, The Daily Jot reported about the genesis of a coup. My ministry partner of 26 years, William Agbeti, has been through six coups d'�tat in Ghana spanning from 1966 through 1981. Only one failed. I asked him to analyze the factors of those coups and compare them with the current situation in America to see if there were similarities. He said, "All the FACTORS that play out for coups d'�tat are currently PRESENT in the US. Most of these FACTORS are oftentimes masterminded. The stage is being set for perhaps America's first coup d'�tat." Agbeti went on to identify the various indicators already in place that may contribute to an overthrow of the US government in some form or another.

 

Agbeti says, "Coup makers in Ghana belonged to one, part or all of the following categories of persons: disgruntled leaders, power-drunk individuals, stoogies fronting for organized criminals, over-ambitious adventurers, ex-heads of state with unfinished agendas, opposition members who have created a shadow government, die-hard individuals with sympathetic ears to foreign powers desirous of entrenching and superimposing their interests (or way of life) on a nation. Master minds, employing state oppression as an excuse, using mainstream mass media, institutions, and instigating groups of people to pour out into the streets to create well-organized mass revolts, easily paved the way for successful coups. These master minds belonged to shadow governments with hidden agendas."

 

While the Mueller report did not specifically point to a coup in progress by the Democratic Party leadership, the deep state within the bowels of government, and Republicans who oppose President Donald Trump, there is no doubt of a blatant effort to overthrow a duly elected president. This ongoing coup attempt shows no signs of slowing despite the exonerations of the Mueller Special Counsel report. The news media, though partially repentant and at first admitting it got it wrong, today continues to cover the coup-makers in the Democratic Party as if they had some magical pixi-dust to undo what Mueller submitted and make real all their wildest hate-filled dreams of Trump.

 

Christ said in Matthew 24:4, "Take heed that no man deceive you." Do not be deceived. Agbeti, says, "The whole probe thing looks like the well known tactics that coup makers employ: key accusation(s) they level against a ruling party happen to be the most feared practices they themselves are involved in and want to cover up. Once they accuse the ruling party of such practices, then the likelihood of being accused of the same practice is totally wiped out. With this approach, they never let the issue rest! That will be too dangerous for them!" Agbeti has reported on and studied coups and counter coups. He thinks America is looking into the face of an ongoing coup attempt by the Marxist left. I believe him.

 

 

Kushner reassures evangelicals today: Israel's security a priority in Trump peace plan - Amir Tibon -

https://watch.org/node/53351

 

Jared Kushner met with Christian evangelical leaders as part of a week-long effort by senior officials to shore up support for Trump among evangelical pro-Israel activists

 

The meeting, which took place at the White House, was the final note of a week-long effort by senior administration officials to shore up Trump's strong support among evangelical pro-Israel activists, who constitute an important part of the president's political base.

 

Kushner hosted dozens of religious leaders and activists affiliated with Christians United for Israel, which describes itself as the largest pro-Israeli organization in the U.S., and which is strongly identified with evangelical Christian churches. The organization held its annual conference in Washington this week, and no less than five senior Trump advisers spoke at the conference.

 

The meeting with Kushner, which took place at the White House, was more intimate than the organization's thousands-strong general sessions. Kushner spoke to the leadership group that met with him for approximately half an hour, and also took questions from the participants, according to two sources who attended the conversation.

 

Kushner thanked those in attendance for supporting Trump's policies in the Middle East. Evangelicals have advocated policies adopted by Trump for years, such as moving the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem and withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal. In the 2016 election, Trump received approximately 80% of white evangelical votes, and his political advisers believe a similar level of evangelical support will be necessary in order for him to win re-election next year.

 

For many evangelicals, Trump's Israel policies are a main reason for supporting him, second only to his appointment of conservative judges who want to restrict abortions and LGBTQ rights. Some evangelical supporters of Israel have, however, expressed concerns about the contents of the administration's Middle East peace plan, which could be published before the end of the year. Many evangelicals are strong supporters of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, and oppose any Israeli territorial concessions as part of a future peace deal.

 

Kushner did not provide new details about the peace plan during Wednesday's meeting, according to the sources who spoke with Haaretz. He did, however, reassure the group that the plan takes Israelis security needs into consideration, and that Israel's security is a major priority for the administration.

 

The plan's economic chapter was published last month in English and Arabic, while the political chapter is expected to come out only after the September 17th Israeli election. Until then, the administration is keeping the details of the plan confined to a very small group of advisers, which includes Kushner and his close aide Avi Berkowitz, as well Trump's Middle East envoy, Jason Greenblatt, and U.S. Ambassador to Israel David Friedman.

 

Greenblatt and Friedman also gave speeches at the CUFI conference this week, as did Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, both of whom are evangelical Christians. Pompeo said during his speech that "Israel is a majority Jewish nation, but the government doesn't force Jewish beliefs on others" - a hint to the existence of a Christian minority of Israeli citizens. His statement, however, ignored the fact that the Israeli government refuses to recognize non-Orthodox Jewish weddings and forces secular citizens to go through Orthodox religious authorities in order to seek a divorce.

 

Pence said during his speech that "we stand with Israel because her cause is our cause, her values are our values." Pence also referred to the Biblical story of a promise made by God to Abraham that "I will bless those who bless you," stating: "we stand with Israel because we cherish that ancient promise that those who bless her will be blessed."

 

President Trump's national security adviser, John Bolton, also addressed the conference. Bolton said that "Israel's security is central to the stability of the Middle East" and that "the relationship between the United States and Israel, under President Trump, is stronger than ever."

 

While CUFI defines itself as bi-partisan, during this year's conference only Republican senators spoke from the stage. The organization also shared some tweets by members of Congress who met with CUFI activists on Tuesday and Wednesday - almost all of them from the Republican Party. The only Democrat who appeared in one of the tweets meeting a delegation of CUFI activists was Senator Chuck Schumer, a Democrat from New York.

 

Prime Minister Netanyahu sent a video greeting to the conference from Jerusalem, devoting his remarks to the recent tensions and threat of military escalation with Iran. "We should stand up to Iran's aggression now," Netanyahu said. "It's important to respond to their actions by increasing the pressure, not by reducing the pressure." Netanyahu also said that he applauds Trump for pulling out of the Iran deal last year.

 

 Suspending your disbelief of the American coup - Bill Wilson - www.dailyjot.com

 

While I know you are probably tired of hearing about it, the Lord has impressed upon my heart to cry out to you each day this week about the ongoing coup. We must be aware. What does Hosea 4:6 say?, "My people are destroyed for lack of knowledge" In John 8:32, Christ says, "And you shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free." Sometimes we need to suffer the truth to remain free. Please endure the truth in these Daily Jots about this ongoing coup. We need to pray and act to turn the tide of what is occurring in this country. This is a Christian issue because the attacks are currently and will be against freedom of thought, freedom of speech, and especially freedom of religion, mainly Christianity.

 

Our ministry partner William Agbeti has survived six coups in West Africa, and he is foreseeing one here in America. Here is what he sees as an "algorithm of a coup d'etat in the US": "Coup plotting mainly begins with one of three happenings: 1) The ruling government of the plotters suddenly loses an election against popular expectations; 2) The incumbent government with socialist leaning fails to deliver on its numerous promises, and splinter groups start engineering popular revolts for an ouster; or 3) External influences from leading socialist blocks or major socialist players, culminating in offers to help the losers win back power."

 

Agbeti's thoughts: "In the US, carefully orchestrated public protests will increase and spread to major cities, as many groups and individuals get access to sources of questionable funds in the hands of previous government operatives or their cronies in business. Appointments, rejection of appointments, high status resignations and open clashes with government policies or presidential stands on policies will mount up. For example, democrats have always supported abortion and open immigration. They will use all these traditional stands to whip up a popular crash down on reforms at all fronts, most especially legal fronts. Highly sensitive security matters will become a major thorn in Trump's flesh, as more and more key security operatives refuse to furnish him with vital information owing to their lack of trusting him with sensitive information.

 

"This seems to be the bait, with particular reference to the Russian equation, that will be thrown at the people to launch a coup. Coup plotters in the US may build up widespread dissension to culminate with an election, then they open up old wounds! Highly powerful plans that the coup plotters in the US are using and will repeatedly use are fake events or fake flags, including fake news! What could likely be responsible for the "big day" for a coup in the US? The enemies of state currently are clearly making it impossible for Trump to govern. This means government machinery may grind to PLANNED halts. Trump may be declared unfit to rule, there will be calls for his impeachment, fake pollsters will continue to churn out unscientific research findings on his unpopularity and image ratings."

 

Agbeti says that a key event, such as a security crisis or natural disaster, may propel the shadow government to strike hard to unseat Trump through popular revolt and reinstatement of their rule. It is easy to say to ourselves, "This could never happen here." But understanding the machinations of a bloodless coup and how conditions may be ripe for such an event is the first step to knowing how to fast, pray, and act to prevent it. Suspend your disbelief for the destroyer is patiently waiting. You can make a difference.

 

 

 

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