Foreign-Policy Experts Predict Iranian Attack On Israel Just A Matter Of Time - By Israel Kasnett -
As Iranians took to the streets this week to commemorate 40 years since the U.S. embassy takeover in 1979, Iran announced new violations of the nuclear deal it signed in 2015.
The rogue Islamic Republic admitted that it now operates 60 advanced IR-6 centrifuges and is working on a new type of centrifuge that will work 50 times faster than what is currently permitted under the deal.
This announcement comes after Iran has engaged in attacks on oil tankers and Saudi oil facilities, shooting down an American drone, and, of course, its ongoing and aggressive efforts to build a war machine against Israel in Syria and elsewhere.
For its part, on Monday the U.S. Treasury Department announced new sanctions against nine Iranian military commanders and officials. U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran in May 2018 and reimposed tough sanctions in an effort to curb the regime's destabilizing behavior in the Middle East and around the globe.
Regardless, Tehran has continued to engage in destabilization efforts and heavily supports terror activity and weapons buildup in the Middle East.
Yaakov Amidror, a former national security advisor to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and currently an analyst at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and a fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, told JNS that the Iranians want to remain far away from the Jewish state, but at the same time build "a ring of fire" around it.
Iran supports Hezbollah in Lebanon and the terror organization is estimated to have as many as 100,000 missiles. Iran is also trying hard to create an independent war machine in Syria, which Israel has been working to dismantle. According to foreign and some Israeli reports, Israel has struck 300 targets in Syria so far.
According to Amidror, Iran realized that Israel has been succeeding in Syria, so it began to build a branch of its independent war machine in Iraq, taking advantage of the fact that the Iraqis don't have total control of some parts of their land. For Iran, the idea is to have a military capability close to Israel, while it itself remains at a distance.
"An interesting question," Amidror said, "is what should Israel's reaction be in such a situation? We know the head of the snake is in Iran. Will Israel go after targets in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon or Yemen? Or will we go directly to the head of the snake?"
Iran has the capability to attack Israel from multiple locations, including Lebanon and Syria--and now Iraq and possibly Yemen--as Netanyahu mentioned recently.
'This will be complicated'
Eytan Gilboa, professor and director of the Center for International Communication at Bar-Ilan University in Ramat Gan and a senior research associate at the BESA Center for Strategic Studies, told JNS that a number of elements have changed recently that impact Israel's preparedness and decision-making.
First, Iran attacked the Saudi oil fields. Second, the United States withdrew from Syria. And third, Iranian provocations in the Persian Gulf were not met with any aggressive American answer.
"We also see Islamic Jihad in Gaza, on orders from Iran, trying to sabotage and undermine the situation there," he said.
Like Amidror, Gilboa noted that Israel has been trying to prevent Iran from building another front in Syria, saying "this strategy has been extended to Iraq."
He laid out the current state of affairs from Israel's perspective. According to Gilboa, "it is obvious, for all kinds of reasons, that Iran would not attack Israel directly from its own territory. Iran lost some of the surprise that could have been inflicted on Israel had it not used cruise missiles against Saudi Arabia."
Israel is preparing adequate answers to this kind of threat as it expects Iran to attack it with precision-guided cruise missiles and drones.
Gilboa suggested that the components of Israeli strategy must first be to reveal Iran's plan. Then, Israel must threaten direct and severe retaliation. Finally, Israel must make it clear that Syria and Lebanon will pay the price if attacks on Israel originate on their soil.
"If Iran orders Nasrallah to attack Israel, this will be complicated," said Gilboa. "In the 2006 Second Lebanon War, Israel distinguished between the Lebanese Army and Hezbollah. This is no longer the case. If Israel comes under attack, it will attack Lebanon, including Hezbollah. The same is true for Syria. Israel is trying to persuade [Syrian President] Basher Assad and Russia that if Israel comes under attack from Syria, it is Assad who will pay the price."
Additionally, continued Gilboa, Israel must inform Russia of potential Israeli action after any attack by Iran. "These exchanges of fire between Israel and Iranian attempts to build a base in Syria is completely not in Russia's interest, and this is why Russia is not protesting Israeli military actions in Syria," he said.
Israel should work to procure an American statement of support and must coordinate with the United States to announce that attacks on Israel will trigger American action.
"On the face of it," Gilboa said, "these components should create some level of deterrence. Israel's main strategy is to create deterrence or at least limit any potential Iranian attack."
If Iran does indeed attack, there will have to be a massive retaliation against Iranian interests.
According to Gilboa, Europe should not be expected to join in the fight against Iran's hegemonic ambitions and support of global terrorism. They are "stupid and deaf," he charged, and only trying to appease Iran.
Both Amidror and Gilboa agree that Iran is certainly bent on Israel in its crosshairs.
"Confrontation between Iran and Israel is unavoidable," said Gilboa. "There is great probability for some Iranian military action; this is something Israel is preparing for."
"Our assumption," said Amidror, "is not a question of if, but when."
Who will lead the Palestinians after Abbas? - Shimrit Meir -
Opinion: Though no attempt has been made to push Abbas out of office, his age and ailing health require those vying for his job to consider their options as they wait for nature to take its course
The attention given to the Palestinian arena, minimal as it is in normal times, is even less today.
From Iraq to Lebanon, social and security issues make headlines, while in Israel - the political stalemate is all consuming.
But below the surface, actual shifts are afoot, which may affect the near future.
In other words: everyone is preparing for the day after Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is no longer in charge.
It appears as if nothing dramatic as happened. Abbas is not dying or even hospitalized, though rumors about his failing health pop up every few weeks.
He will be 84 in ten days, he has cancer, suffers from depression and smokes like a chimney.
He blamed his failure to quit cigarettes on the troubles President Donald Trump has caused him.
Though the "Deal of the Century" seems now to be off the table, the PA's financial troubles are only growing, and the Palestinian national movement is at one of the lowest points in its history.
Abbas's age and frail health has so far prevented a battle between potential successors.
People believe nature will take its course so attempts to push him out of office have not been made.
Because both Israeli and PA security forces have invested years-long efforts, Hamas is absent as a military force in the West Bank.
Hamas' leadership understands that their hopes of assuming control through military means will fail, so they intend to make use of the available democratic and procedural means such as parliamentary elections.
Winning those seems likely, and if successful, a Hamas member will assume the position of speaker, which will position the movement perfectly, to take over the presidential post when Abbas is no longer able to fill the role.
Hamas's electoral prospects are difficult to foresee. Results of the public opinion polls conducted in the PA should not be considered trustworthy.
The last elections were in 2006, and then Hamas won a large percentage of the vote.
But that was before they took control of the Gaza Strip and imposed on its population a life of extreme poverty and hunger.
Many in the West Bank are frustrated and critical of the current government. Still, it is doubtful they see the situation in Gaza as a better option.
A possible path to the future leadership of the PLO may come from Fatah (the Palestinian National Liberation Movement).
Two possible candidates who have been waiting in the wings are considered strong contenders:
One is Jibril Rajoub, who is currently in charge of sports for the PA and has made a name for himself through the national soccer team.
The other is Mohammad Dahlan, who has been banned from the West Bank by Abbas but is believed to have a strong following in the Gaza Strip, enjoyed financial support from the UAE and seems to have Egyptian President Sisi in his corner as well - something Abbas is less than thrilled about.
Whoever the successor will ultimately be, the animosity for Hamas, expressed by the current leader will disappear and the factions will certainly make the effort to mend fences.
Iran, Hezbollah Using Mexican Drug Cartels To Infiltrate US - By Rami Dabbas/Clarion Project -
Iran and its terror proxy Hezbollah are financing Mexican drug cartels, smuggling people into America and recruiting them (for pay) as sleeper jihadist cells.
The recruits are mainly immigrants to Mexico from the Middle East, mostly from Lebanon where Hezbollah is based.
The coordinated operation is part of Iran's war on America.
While Iran and Hezbollah are known to be active in the drug trade further south in Latin America, many are unaware that Iran, through its proxy Hezbollah, finances money laundering operations and human smuggling through the Mexican drug cartels at the U.S. border.
The operation is founded on the known fact that the U.S.-Mexican border is easy to penetrate, with tens of thousands of illegal immigrants and asylum seekers from Mexico and other Latin American countries coming into the U.S. from Mexico every month.
In southern Chiapas in Mexico, there are Muslim communities. These communities are made up of Syrians and Lebanese who migrated to Mexico decades ago as well as recent Mexican converts to Islam. In addition, Islam is gaining a foothold and in southern Mexico, with indigenous Mayans converting by the hundreds.
These communities are funded in the Diaspora and all contain sleeper cells. With the help of Mexican drug cartels, they finance and traffic extremists to the United States.
Canada has also become their target after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau lifted the visa requirement for Mexican citizens.
For example, Ayman Juma, a Lebanese citizen linked to Mexican drug cartels and involved in the drug trade in Latin America and Mexico, is a member of the Hezbollah. He is also associated with al-Qaeda.
Juma has smuggled tons of drugs from Mexico to the United States. The money made is partially used to fund terrorism, especially to prepare terrorist attacks against Israel as well as Hezbollah's activities in America.
Hezbollah also managed to smuggle 200 illegal Lebanese immigrants through Mexico to America. All of them are part of a network of Iranian and Hezbollah supporters.
After his arrest, Mahmoud Youssef Kourani, a Lebanese citizen who infiltrated the United States through the Lebanese-Mexican smuggling network, admitted to the FBI that he spent part of his time in the United States to raise funds to support Hezbollah's activities.
Kourani carried out operational activities as a long-term sleeper agent, acting on behalf of Hezbollah's external attack-planning component, the Islamic Jihad Organization (IJO), such as identifying Israelis in New York who could be targeted by Hezbollah and finding people from whom he could procure arms that Hezbollah could stockpile in the area.
"While living in the United States, Kourani served as an operative of Hezbollah in order to help the foreign terrorist organization prepare for potential future attacks against the United States," said U.S. Assistant Attorney General for National Security John Demers.
These included buildings housing the FBI and U.S. Secret Service in Manhattan, as well as New York's John F. Kennedy International Airport and a U.S. Army armory.
Taken together, the arrests of Kourani and another Hezbollah operative, Samer el-Debek, led the U.S. intelligence community to revisit its longstanding assessment that Hezbollah would be unlikely to attack the U.S. homeland unless the group perceived Washington to be taking action threatening its existence or that of its patron--Iran.
Following Kourani and Debek's arrests, the director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center said in, "It's our assessment that Hezbollah is determined to give itself a potential homeland option as a critical component of its terrorism playbook."
TERRY SEEMAN - DISTRIBUTOR # 16084320
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.