WORLD AT WAR: 7.2.22 - Lessons From the Ukraine for Israel

Lessons From the Ukraine for Israel - 'No One Will Come' – Dr.Martin Sherman - https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=5439 Recently, I attended a dinner at which the keynote speaker was Yossi Cohen, the former director of Mossad. Cohen's wide-ranging and thoughtful address focused on the impactof global events on Israel's security. Although he touched only briefly on the war in Ukraine, what he said was significant and incisive. After giving a brief tour d'horizon of the combined military might of NATO--onboth sides of the Atlantic--he made the poignant observation that, despite NATO's awesome power, "no one came to save even one Ukrainian baby." Indeed, for Ukrainians, the situation must be particularly galling. After all, it is has been barely 20 years since the Budapest Memorandum was signed, in which Russia, theU.S. and the U.K. pledged to refrain from threatening or using military force or economic coercion against Ukraine if the country gave up its nuclear weapons. They also pledged--among other things--to respect Ukraine's independence and sovereignty accordingto its then-current borders. Clearly, there have since been blatant Russian violations of the Memorandum, notably the 2014 annexation of Crimea and then the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Western democracies are unreliable In a caustic review of Ukraine's fate--and the chain of events that led up to it--Erielle Davidson of George Mason University berated the Memorandum's "stark failure" andnoted the "host of lessons that might be drawn from its collapse." She wrote, "Western democracies are unreliable and fickle. International agreements involving the abdication of strategic assets in exchange for vague 'assurances' of undefinedfuture support are not worth the paper they are written on." "Ukraine, despite having a strong historical foe on its borders, made real sacrifices for the fanciful Western ideal of denuclearization," she noted. "But once it paid thatprice, those who had pushed for the deal largely hung the nation out to dry." Extending the scope of her analysis, Davidson continued, "Ukraine is not the only country the U.S. and European countries have insisted make dangerous concessions for paperpeace with an undemocratic, bellicose neighbor." Davidson went on to trace the significance of the events in Ukraine for Israel. She observed that "the entire blueprint of Western democracies' approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict" has been to "push the Israelis to cede strategic territorialdepth in the hopes that governments run by terrorists will behave. In exchange, Israel would ride a brief wave of Western plaudits and vague assurances of assistance if the Palestinians were to seek to destabilize or attack the smaller Israel." "An Israeli deal with the Palestinians would surely be met, like the Budapest Memorandum, with fanfare and goodwill in the short term," she stated. "The world, supposedly,would have become a more peaceful place. But little-remarked upon are the long-term consequences for the party that sacrificed its own security policy on the altar of quixotic Western delusions." Davidson asserted, "Ukraine's concessions in the 1990s are hardly remembered today. ... Thus, the Ukrainian war also represents the failure of a Western peace process--a failurethat our ally Israel should certainly remember when an unchastened American and European foreign policy establishment inevitably asks Jerusalem to repeat Kiev's mistakes." The failure of international guarantees In a paper entitled "When International Agreements Utterly Failed," David Makovsky, a distinguished fellow at the Washington Institute, analyzed the events that led to the1967 Six-Day War, which erupted after Egypt closed the Straits of Tiran to Israeli navigation. This was a critical blow to Israel, which at the time relied on strategic oil imports from Iran supplied via the Straits. Israel believed it had secured a guarantee of freedom of navigation through the Straits from the U.S. and the international community in 1957 when it withdrew its forces fromthe Sinai Peninsula after the 1956 Sinai campaign. Moreover, Israel declared that any future closure of the Straits of Tiran to Israeli shipping by Egypt would be considered a clear casus belli. Despite this warning, on May 23, 1967, Egyptian President GamalAbdel Nasser ordered the closure of the Straits to Israeli vessels. Israel dispatched Foreign Minister Abba Eban on an urgent trip to Paris, London and Washington to urge the international community to reopen the Straits and thus avoid war.But Eban encountered an apathetic, obtuse and cynical international response. For example, even though French President Charles De Gaulle conceded that a commitment had been made to Israel to keep the Straits open, he curtly dismissed the pledge, declaring,"That was 1957 ... now it's 1967." No guarantee can guarantee a guarantee Israel's strenuous diplomatic efforts to persuade the Western powers to pressure Cairo to reopen the Straits proved fruitless. Then Egypt began mobilizing forces along Israel'ssouthern border, triggering the preemptive Israeli strikes on Egyptian positions and airfields that began the Six-Day War. In his paper, Makovsky remarked, "We should not forget one of the enduring lessons learned from the run-up to the conflict. Namely, that agreements need to stand on theirown merits and cannot be based on abstract international guarantees about the future." He lamented, "When the political context changed ... the guarantees evaporated." Clearly, this vividly underscores the merits of Henry Kissinger's characterization of the anarchic international system: Sovereign nations have the right to change their mindsat will, making any international agreement or pledge ephemeral by its very nature. Indeed, as Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin once reportedly remarked to U.S. Secretary of State Cyrus Vance a decade later, "In the whole world, there is no guaranteethat can guarantee a guarantee." No one will come... For Israel, the message is stark and unequivocal: It must remember that should it cede vitally important strategic territory at the behest of foreign governments, it couldwell tempt its adversaries to launch a deadly assault on it, because it would be far more vulnerable and exposed than before. Moreover, Israel should remember that it can expect scant support from other countries, which will be reluctant to come to its aid. For, as Yossi Cohen warned in his address,if Israel is attacked, it must be prepared for the possibility that "no one will come." Editors Note: In Ezekiel 38 we read how this prophetic statement that "no one will come" will indeed come to pass. The prophet Ezekiel foresaw a future invasion of Israel by Russia, Iranand others that leads some nations (Sheba/Dedan) to only issue a verbal protest. No military help comes for Israel from the nations except for God himself who is victorious in destroying the invading armies. ------------------------------ Struggle To Fill The Power Vacuum Reaches Epic Proportions � Amir Tsarfati - https://harbingersdaily.com/mideast-review-w-amir-tsarfati-struggle-to-fill-the-power-vacuum-reaches-epic-proportions/ If you follow my Telegram channel, you know that the actions in and around the Israeli Knesset continue to be interesting. Following the collapse of Prime Minister NaftaliBennett�s government last week, the struggle to fill the power vacuum has reached epic proportions. So much of the discussion centers around who the various parties will not back, instead of who they would. Chief among those vilified is former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.So many of the actions of Bennett�s government were to prove that they weren�t Netanyahu. They hate the man passionately and want the world to know that they are doing all they can to change Israel into a non-Netanyahu state. The problem is that by reversing so many of the previous prime minister�s policies, they have left the nation much weaker � focused more on social justice than on militarystrength. That may be fine if you are sitting in western Europe where everyone thinks the same as you do. It doesn�t work if you are surrounded by enemies who want to push your whole nation into the Mediterranean. Whether Netanyahu has enough sway to get back into the Prime Minister�s seat remains to be seen. His enemies are so concerned that he might sweep in even before the November1 elections and steal the government away, that they even put forward a controversial bill that blocks any politician under criminal indictment from forming a government. Netanyahu remains under indictment for some politically motivated corruption charges. The only bill that could have been more transparently directed at the former Prime Ministeris if they put one forward that banned anyone with the initials �B. N.� from holding the office. Not surprisingly, the legal counsel of the Knesset shot the bill down immediately. It�s too important of a precedent just to rush it through during an election period, particularlysince it is so blatantly not against something but someone. Still, in their efforts to ensure that Netanyahu doesn�t get near the office any time soon, they have rushed in about as unqualified an interim prime minister as one can find,Foreign Minister Yair Lapid. This is a man who has no true military background and never even received his high school diploma. He has more skills in the application of hair gel than he does the making of public policy. For a government that for the past year has put the priority on form over function and feelings over strength, the liberal, progressive Lapid fits right in. It will be interesting to watch as the �government of change� is changed. Through it all, however, we don�t fear or worry. God is in control in this, as He is in all governmentsin all parts of the world. Sometimes He intercedes; sometimes He leaves nations to their own devices. But no matter what, we know that it is all under the great umbrella of His plan for His creation as He leads us forward to the time when we will be with Himforever in the new heavens and the new earth. Revelation 21:1-4 KJV � �And I saw a new heaven and a new earth: for the first heaven and the first earth were passed away; and there was no more sea. And I John saw the holycity, new Jerusalem, coming down from God out of heaven, prepared as a bride adorned for her husband. And I heard a great voice out of heaven saying, Behold, the tabernacle of God is with men, and he will dwell with them, and they shall be his people, andGod himself shall be with them, and be their God. And God shall wipe away all tears from their eyes; and there shall be no more death, neither sorrow, nor crying, neither shall there be any more pain: for the former things are passed away.� Right across the border from Eilat, where we just had our Young Adults Tour out enjoying the Red Sea, is Aqaba, Jordan. In Aqaba�s port on Monday, a crane loading storagetanks of chlorine let one slip. When it landed, it exploded shooting toxic yellow smoke onto the dock. Thirteen people were killed and at least 250 were sickened. It was an up and down week for our Iranian friends. On the upside for them, their terrorist militias are scoring some points, particularly on the Emirati Dana oil company.Saturday saw the third attack on the facility in four days, this one landing in a housing area. So far, there have been no casualties. In other good news for Tehran, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), Mohammad Eslami, announced thatIran has begun to install their new IR-6 centrifuges, which are needed for weapons grade uranium, at their Fordow nuclear facility. They are also increasing the number of these centrifuges at the Natanz facility. On the Iranian downside, there is a purge taking place in the IRGC following Israel�s success in their attacks against the Iranian nuclear program and the embarrassing failedkidnapping and assassination attempts of Israeli citizens in Turkey by Quds Force assassins. First, Hossein Taeb, IRGC Intelligence Chief was removed. Then, on Tuesday, Ebrahim Jabbari, head of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei�s personal protection unit,was given the boot. Other personnel changes are taking place within the IRGC, as well. The second major blow to Iran was a cyberattack on the country�s steel industry. Relatively unknown activist group Gonjeshke Darande � Persian for �Predatory Sparrow� � shutdown the Khuzestan Steel Co., a leading steel production plant, leading to a major upheaval in the industry. It is unclear the extent of the physical and economic damage, but it is significant. There are rumors that the Mossad could be somehow connected tothe Predatory Sparrow. If this is true, I would like to apologize to our Iranian friends for Israel getting in the way of your weapons and missile production. We know how much you enjoy passing them on to your proxy militias to shoot at us. In a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarus president expressed his concerns that Lithuania and Polandwere getting a little too aggressive in their policies. Putin responded by promising to send Iskander-M tactical missiles which, as the Russian president is quoted as saying, �can use both ballistic and cruise missiles, both in conventional and nuclear versions.� Russia has defaulted on its external debt for the first time since the Bolshevik revolution in 1918. The Kremlin, however, denies the default, saying that they have the moneyfrom their gas and oil revenues. They complain that they are being kept out of the world financial system as part of the sanctions for their actions in Ukraine. Alexei Moiseev, Russian deputy finance minister, complained last week, �I believe that a financialnuclear bomb was used against us, no country in the history of mankind has experienced such sanctions pressure as Russia is now.� An official reply from the rest of the world read, �Cry us a river.� In a classic move of tit-for-tat, Germany is nearing a point where they will have to implement gas rationing due to Russia cutting back supplies. �There�s no point pretending � the throttling of gas deliveries amounts to an economic attack on us by Putin,� said German minister for economic and energy affairs, Robert Habeck. In NATO news, Turkey has lifted its objections to Finland and Sweden joining the alliance. This opened the door for an official invitation to be issued to the two Scandinaviancountries yesterday from NATO�s summit in Madrid. Vladimir Putin warned the two countries to not avail themselves of the invitation, saying there will be a response if they do. Meanwhile, NATO has decided to increase their �high alert� troops sevenfold from40,000 to 300,000. In other NATO news, the alliance issued an official document on June 14 in which it presented China as a threat, writing, �China�s stated ambitions and assertive behaviourpresent systemic challenges to the rules-based international order and to areas relevant to Alliance security.� Meanwhile, the G7 countries have implemented a rigid line against China manipulating global markets. Spanish and Moroccan border police opened fire on African immigrants killing 37 and wounding hundreds more. The immigrants were trying to get into the Spanish enclave of Melilla,located on the Moroccan border. The videos are horrific and clearly depict the tragic overreaction by authorities. The irony is that, as I mentioned earlier, Madrid is currently hosting a NATO summit. The purpose of NATO is to defend those countries that aretoo weak to defend themselves. Yet, here is the host country opening fire on defenseless immigrants. Imagine the reaction if those slaughtered had been Palestinians storming an IDF position. The hypocrisy is overwhelming. ------------------------------