The nuclear chess game begins: Iran plays for sanctions relief before compliance with deal - http://www.debka.com/article/24868/The-nuclear-chess-game-begins-Iran-plays-for-sanctions-relief-before-compliance-with-deal
The crowing this week over Barack Obama's success in gaining congressional support for his Iranian nuclear deal against Binyamin Netanyahu's defeat was premature. The July 14 Vienna deal between Iran and six world powers was just the first round of the game. Decisive rounds are still to come, before either of the two can be said to have won or lost.
The biggest outstanding hurdle in the path of the accord is Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his silence on where he stands on the deal whether by a yea or a nay.
Without his nod, nothing goes forward in the revolutionary republic. So the nuclear accord is not yet home and dry either in Tehran or even in Washington.
While Obama gathered congressional support in Washington for the accord to pass, Khamenei made three quiet yet deadly remarks:
1. "Sanctions against Tehran must be lifted completely rather than suspended. If the framework of sanctions is to be maintained, then why did we negotiate?"
White House spokesman Josh Earnest answered him: "Iran will only see sanctions relief if it complies with the nuclear deal."
There lies the rub. For the Obama administration, it is clear that Iran must first comply with the accord before sanctions are eased, whereas Tehran deems the accord moot until sanctions are lifted - regardless of its approval by the US Congress.
Here is the first stalemate, and not the last. debkafile's Iranian sources foresee long, exhausting rounds ahead that could drag on longer even than the protracted negotiations, which Secretary of State John Kerry and Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif brought to a close in Vienna.
2. Khamenei next took the step of referring the accord to the Majlis (parliament) for approval, pretending that to be legally in force, the accord requires a majority vote by the parliament in Tehran. He put it this way, "I believe... that it is not in the interest of the majlis to be sidelined."
This step was in fact designed to sideline President Hassan Rouhani, on whom Obama and Kerry counted to get the nuclear deal through, and snatch from him the authority for signing it - or even determining which body had this competence.
It had been the intention of Rouhani and Zarif to put the accord before the 12-member Council of Guardians for their formal endorsement. But Khamenei pulled this rug out from under their feet and kept the decision out of the hands of the accord's proponents.
3. His next step was to declare with a straight face: "I have no recommendation for the majlis on how to examine it. It is up to the representatives of the nation to decide whether to reject or ratify it."
This step in the nuclear chess game was meant to show American democracy up in a poor light compared to that of the Revolutionary Republic (sic). While Obama worked hard to bring his influence to bear on Congress he, Khamenei, refrained from leaning on the lawmakers, who were freed to vote fair and square on the deal's merits.
This of course is a charade. Our Iranian sources point out that the ayatollah exercises dictatorial control over the majlis through his minion, Speaker Ali Larijani. He has absolute trust in the lawmakers never reaching any decision on the nuclear deal, or anything else, without his say-so.
Congressional approval in Washington of the nuclear accord may give President Obama a fine boost but will be an empty gesture for winning endorsement in Tehran. It might even be counter-productive if American lawmakers carry out their intention of hedging the nuclear deal round with stipulations binding Iran to full compliance with the commitments it undertook in Vienna, or also continue to live with existing sanctions or even face new ones.
Netanyahu and the Israeli lobby AIPAC, far from experiencing defeat in their campaign to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran, are well fired up for the next round: the fight for sanctions.
Iran's Khamenei vows Israel's demise - Bill Wilson - www.dailyjot.com
There should be no doubt that the United States is making the wrong move, and a possibly destructive one, by agreeing with Iran on a nuclear deal, and paying the terrorist-sponsoring state hundreds of billions of dollars. All the signs are there--in the past decade, Iran has developed its nuclear program by agreeing to inspections and then refusing them; agreeing to limitations, then violating them, finally resulting in sanctions. But there is no cat and mouse on this day when the US Congress is discussing whether to allow the "president" to go forward with his deal that will assuredly allow Iran a nuclear weapon and pay them with US tax dollars to put the finishing touches on it. Iran's leadership is clear on this.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei took to the social media airwaves Wednesday to clearly and definitively spell out his intentions with the nuclear agreement. The Times of Israel reports that Khamenei posted on Twitter, "After negotiations, in Zionist regime they said they had no more concern about Iran for next 25 years; I'd say: Firstly, you will not see next 25 years; God willing, there will be nothing as Zionist regime by next 25 years. Secondly, until then, struggling, heroic and jihadi morale will leave no moment of serenity for Zionists." According to the Times, the quote was taken from a speech given earlier in the day. It was accompanied by a picture of Khamenei walking on the flag of Israel.
Khamenei also had some things to say about the United States--"@IRKhomeini stated "US is the Great Satan," some insist on depicting this Great Satan as an angel." Khamenei stated on his website, "We approved talks with the United States about [the] nuclear issue specifically. We have not allowed talks with the US in other fields and we [do] not negotiate with them." He said that any additional talks would be "a tool for penetration and imposing their demands." These inflammatory remarks are consistent with what has been published in Iran's official media since the very beginning of the talks with Secretary of State John Kerry. Iran has been up front and aggressively telegraphing its intentions.
The "president" has reportedly secured enough Democratic votes to filibuster a recorded vote in the Senate on the agreement. They want a voice vote so Americans, who overwhelmingly oppose this deal, will not know who voted for it. The prophetic implications for the US are severe as in Genesis 12:3 God says of Israel, "And I will bless them that bless thee, and curse him that curses thee." In Zechariah 12:3 God says, "And in that day will I make Jerusalem a burdensome stone...all that burden themselves with it shall be cut in pieces..." God is consistent with the beginning and end regarding Israel. Congressional Democrats are being implicit in supporting evil and know they are doing it because they seek to block a recorded vote. Cowards hiding behind procedures. But the Lord knows their hearts.
Iran's elite military is entangled in regional wars. Mission creep? - By Scott Peterson - http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2015/0904/Iran-s-elite-military-is-entangled-in-regional-wars.-Mission-creep
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps projects Iranian military power across the Middle East, to the alarm of critics of the nuclear deal. But it has become entangled in protracted conflicts that are testing its limits.
President Obama appears to have the votes to ensure congressional approval of the landmark nuclear deal with Iran, a key plank of which is an easing of economic sanctions. And one of the beneficiaries will be Iran's primary tool for projecting power - the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and especially its elite Qods Force, which handles operations abroad.
But are Iran's wizened generals, who mostly cut their military teeth in the 1980s as teenage volunteers during the brutal Iran-Iraq War, already in danger of overreach?
For decades, American military planners aimed to be capable of simultaneously fighting - and winning - two full-blown wars in different regions. It was a challenge, even for a superpower. Today, on a much smaller scale and with a sliver of the military means, Iran is attempting the same thing in the Middle East: It is deeply engaged in Syria and Iraq; waving the flag in Yemen; and very influential in Lebanon.
Never before has the Revolutionary Guard, whose 120,000-strong force is much smaller than Iran's regular 425,000-strong armed forces, been engaged so deeply and widely abroad - yet with increasingly mixed and entangling results.
There is no shortage of commitment: at least seven IRGC generals have died on the frontlines, primarily in Syria but also in Iraq, taken down by snipers' bullets, bombs, and even an Israeli airstrike. The Guards are relatively top heavy with generals due to their origins as an ideological militia. Still, such high-ranking losses are highly uncommon in modern warfare.
In Syria, the IRGC and its Lebanese Shiite ally Hezbollah are bolstering the regime of President Bashar al-Assad against an array of rebels and jihadists. In Iraq, Iran has mobilized Shiite militias to take on the self-described Islamic State, but at a cost of stoking more sectarian strife. While in Yemen, Iran has played a much lesser role in aiding Houthi militiamen against Saudi-backed forces.
Each conflict has now devolved largely along sectarian lines that pit Shiite Iran against its regional Sunni rivals, Saudi Arabia and Persian Gulf states allied with the US and Israel.
The IRGC "exceeded their reach long ago.... They are at the end of their tricks [in Syria], and Hezbollah lost a lot," says Walter Posch, a specialist on Iranian military forces at the Austrian National Defense Academy in Vienna.
"It worked well when it was low cost, but now it is high cost.... There is no Saddam Hussein who insulted the Iranian nation as a whole" as a national motivating factor, as in the 1980s, says Mr. Posch. "This is a war of their own liking, for the purpose of power projection. But they've been too ignorant of the fear of the small Gulf countries; too ignorant about the fears of the Saudis."
Ideological origins
The IRGC was formed after Iran's 1979 Islamic revolution by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who wanted a more trusted and ideologically pure force than the regular Army. The grim years of the Iran-Iraq war consolidated its role - and its anything-is-possible reputation.
Embracing the religious Shiite aspects of resistance in the image of Imam Hossein, the 7th-century Shiite saint venerated as "lord of the martyrs," the IRGC has since become an economic and political powerhouse. It runs a multi-billion dollar business empire that handles everything from oil and infrastructure projects to weapons production. In politics, active-duty guardsman play no formal role, but its generals are close to Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and veterans have held cabinet and other government posts.
"I don't see signs of overreach; I think they've got leadership in depth," says Richard Dalton, a former British ambassador to Tehran now at the Chatham House think tank in London. "They are tested in difficult situations. They've been involved, whether in Lebanon, Iraq, or Afghanistan, for a very long period."
"It comes back to, 'Who wins wars?' People who win wars and are the most effective are the ones with the greatest conviction, and the Iranians have got it," says Amb. Dalton.
That certainly applies to Qods Force commander Qassem Soleimani, who has often been photographed along frontlines in Iraq and elsewhere. He claimed this week that Iran's efforts prompted the "collapse of American power in the region," according to details of a high-level briefing published in Iran's conservative media.
'Gobbling' or choking?
Some argue that Iran's regional expansion is unprecedented. Addressing Congress in March, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran was "gobbling up" Mideast capitals. Yet the tide now isn't all going Iran's way.
In Syria, for example, Iran has been fighting to defend Mr. Assad's regime for more than 4-� years, spending an estimated $6 billion to $15 billion a year in a war that has claimed more than 240,000 lives. But pro-Assad forces have lost ground in recent months to rebels backed by the US, Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, as well as to the self-described Islamic State.
President Hassan Rouhani has vowed to back the Syrian government "until the end of the road." While Assad is running short of loyalist troops, the IRGC reportedly has tried to fill the gap by finding several thousand Afghans to fight, and die, in exchange for cash, Iranian residency or passports, and sometimes for commuted jail terms, according to Germany's Spiegel and Agence France-Presse.
In May, a special event held in Tehran commemorated Afghan martyrs killed in Syria, and 65 corpses were returned in a single exchange, according to Iranian media reports. Many are buried in Iran. Officially, Iran denies enlisting Afghans to fight in Syria.
In Iraq, Soleimani was instrumental in reviving tens of thousands of Shiite militiamen to push back IS for more than a year - in concert with American airstrikes, and ironically with a similar mission as US military advisers now in Iraq. But those militias are accused of atrocities against Sunnis, and efforts to bolster the regular Iraqi military - decisive at first - have begun to stumble.
And in Yemen, Iran has been marginally involved on the side of Houthi rebels as they advanced across the country earlier this year. In July, the critical port city of Aden was recaptured by Saudi-backed forces and troops of the United Arab Emirates. Months of Saudi-led airstrikes are imperiling the population, in a campaign explicitly aimed at rolling back Iranian influence.
"There is support for Soleimani but also high expectations," says Posch, of the IRGC's Qods Force chief. "He has to deliver now. I don't know how he deals with all these crises individually. He can't go to all these battlefields in person."
Iran's Supreme Leader Threatens Israel, Mocks US as Nuclear Deadline Looms - By Lea Speyer -
http://www.breakingisraelnews.com/48619/irans-khamenei-vows-israel-will-cease-to-exist-in-25-years-middle-east/
"Fret not yourself because of evildoers, and be not envious of the wicked, for the evil man has no future; the lamp of the wicked will be put out." (Proverbs 24:19-20)
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei took Israel to war Wednesday on Twitter. Unleashing a tirade against the Jewish state, Khamenei vowed that Israel would cease to exist in 25 years.
"After negotiations, in Zionist regime they said they had no more concern about Iran for next 25 years; I'd say: Firstly, you will not see 25 years. God willing, there will be nothing as Zionist regime by next 25 years. Secondly, until then, struggling, heroic and jihadi morale will leave no moment of serenity for Zionist," the Iranian leader tweeted.
In a second tweet, regarding the nuclear agreement reached between the Islamic Republic and world powers, Khamenei wrote, "We allowed negotiations with U.S. only on nuclear issue for certain reasons, in other areas we did not and will not allow negotiations with U.S."
Khamenei warned that while "U.S. officials seek negotiation with Iran; negotiations is means of infiltration and imposition of their wills."
Referring to the US as the "Great Satan," the Iranian leader continued his tirade against the West, tweeting, "Iranian nation did expel this Great Satan; we barred their direct access and now we must not allow their indirect access and infiltration."
In response to Khamenei's threats, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed his comments, calling the supreme leader a "tyrant" and vowing that Israel is here to stay.
"Khamenei is not giving supporters of the agreement any room for illusion. He has made it clear that the US is the Great Satan and that Iran intends to destroy the State of Israel," the prime minister stated. "This will not happen. Israel is a strong country and it will become even stronger."
US lawmakers have only a few more weeks before heading to a vote on whether to approve or reject the Iran nuclear deal. As of Tuesday, 42 senators have announced their support for the agreement, allowing US President Barack Obama to prevent Congress from disapproving the deal.
Forty-two votes are the minimum number of votes needed in the 100-member Senate to block a Republican resolution blocking the deal.
Iran sent hundreds of fighters to Syria to back Assad, Israel says - http://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-sends-hundreds-of-fighters-to-back-assad-in-syria-says-israel/
'Unprecedented' deployment of Revolutionary Guards forces said to be carried out in coordination with Russia, which is also sending in troops
Iran has deployed hundreds of fighters in Syria, unprecedentedly deepening its involvement on behalf of President Bashar Assad in the Syrian civil war, Israeli security officials said Thursday.
The officials, who briefed Israeli reporters, said several hundred fighters from Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps have taken up positions around the western Syrian village of Zabadani, north of Damascus, in the last few days. The high ground in that area, close to the Lebanon border, overlooks the Damascus-Beirut highway, and potentially controls large parts of Lebanon. Were Islamic State forces and other opponents of Assad to hold control there, they would also potentially be able to target Alawite forces loyal to Assad concentrated along the Syrian coast, Channel 2 reported.
The move is seen by Israel as a dramatic escalation of Iranian involvement in the Syrian civil war, the sources said. Iran has previously sent military advisers to help Assad, and the Iran-armed Lebanese Hezbollah militia has been fighting alongside Assad and sustaining significant losses.
Israel does not intend to intervene at this stage, Channel 2 said, but would do so if it saw a direct threat, and if weaponry were transferred from Syria to Hezbollah in south Lebanon.
Several Western media reports have said Iran sent troops to Syria on other occasions in the past three years. In May 2014, the commander of the Revolutionary Guard Corps appeared to admit the presence of Iranian soldiers in Syria.
Brigadier General Mohammad Ali Allahdadi, a commander of the Revolutionary Guards, was killed in a reported Israeli airstrike on Syria in January.
The Iranians' deployment followed a series of secret visits to Moscow by senior IRGC officials, according to the sources.
"It is not an exaggeration to assess that this is being done in coordination with the Russians," says Channel 2's Roni Daniel. He noted that Qassem Soleimani, commander of the IRGC al-Quds force, visited Moscow last month, and said this was apparently where the deployment of Iranian fighters was decided upon.
Israel's defense minister said Thursday that Russian forces have also arrived in Syria in recent days to aid Assad's beleaguered regime.
Moshe Yaalon told reporters that Moscow sent military advisers and an active force to set up an air base near the Syrian city of Latakia. The base could be used to deploy fighter jets and helicopters in strikes against Islamic State militants, he said.
Yaalon's disclosure was the latest indication of a Russian military buildup in Syria that has concerned the United States and NATO.
Moscow has backed Assad throughout Syria's 4.5-year civil war, in which more than 250,000 people have been killed. The US sees Assad as the cause of the crisis and has warned Moscow against beefing up its presence.
The arrival of the Iranian and Russian forces is seen as a coordinated effort to bolster Assad and thwart Islamic State with action on the ground. US-led airstrikes are patently incapable of defeating IS, the Channel 2 report said.
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly warned that the world powers' new nuclear deal with Iran will embolden the regime to promote its interests more vigorously in the region.
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