Israel wary of Russian military build-up in Syria - By Dan Williams -
http://news.yahoo.com/israel-wary-russian-military-build-syria-122702614.html
Indications of increased Russian involvement in Syria in support of President Bashar al-Assad are prompting a reassessment in Israel about how to handle fall-out from the conflict without risking a clash with Moscow.
Since the Syrian civil war began in 2011, Israel has occasionally fired across the Golan Heights in response to spillover shelling or bombed advanced arms it suspected were to be transferred to Assad's Lebanese guerrilla allies, Hezbollah.
U.S. and regional reports that Moscow's diplomatic and logistical support for Assad is shifting into major military backing has raised the prospect of Israel and Russia accidentally coming to blows.
"There could be ramifications for us, certainly," Ram Ben-Barak, director-general of Israel's Intelligence Ministry, told Reuters when asked if Russian intervention in Syria might necessitate new Israeli rules of engagement.
He was speaking at a security conference organized by the Herzliya Interdisciplinary Center, where Russian policy in Syria was described both as an effort to shore up Assad and mobilize with other world powers in suppressing Islamic State insurgents.
"We have been informed that the Russians are entering into active intervention, the Americans are attacking ... The West and now, in fact, the Russians and the whole world are trying to unite against them (Islamic State)," Amos Gilad, senior adviser to Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon, said in a speech.
In separate remarks to Reuters, Gilad said it was too early to know how extensive Moscow's military involvement in Syria would be and whether it might clip Israel's wings operationally.
"I don't know, because the scale is not yet clear. They haven't started working. They are just building up the capability," Gilad said of the Russian activity.
Asked if Israel was communicating with Russia in a bid to head off any unintended confrontations between their forces, he said only: "There are ways. They are not our enemies today."
In Moscow, the Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said she had no information about any communication between Israel and Russia.
"LOOKING ANEW"
Israel has sought to stay out of the Syrian civil war, seeing enemies on all sides. It says it intervenes militarily only when fired upon from Syria or to prevent Hezbollah operatives reinforcing Assad there from gaining advanced weapons that could pose a threat to it from Lebanon in the future.
Past Israeli strikes in Syria killed Syrian troops as well as Hezbollah fighters, according to both countries and the guerrilla group - though the exact number remains unclear.
In recent days, Moscow has reaffirmed its military backing for Damascus but said it was premature to talk about Russian participation in military operations in Syria.
U.S. authorities have detected "worrisome preparatory steps", including transport of prefabricated houses for hundreds of people to a Syrian airfield, that could signal Russia is readying for deployment of heavy military assets, a senior U.S. official told Reuters last week.
Syria has not formally responded to the reports. But one of its military officials has spoken of a "big shift" in Russia's military support for Damascus.
Amos Yadlin, an Israeli air force ex-general and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's former military intelligence chief, said Israel and Russia were unlikely to find themselves pitted against each other in Syria as they had different areas of interest.
"I don't think there is any reason for the sides to collide, as we are not fighting the same enemy. I assume that we will be very careful, and so will they," said Yadlin, now director of Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies.
He predicted Russian forces would avoid the Golan, near Israel's northern front, and Israel would think twice about carrying out air strikes where Russians might be harmed.
"My assumption is that we don't attack any site on the ground in Syria unless we have an excellent picture of who is or isn't there," Yadlin said.
A senior U.S. official briefed on Israel's actions in Syria shared Yadlin's assessment, but cautioned: "Nothing is fool-proof, so I can anticipate the Israelis will be looking anew at their risk-assessments now."
Syria's ageing air force is largely Soviet-supplied, posing a possible scenario where similar models of jets and choppers could be flown by local and Russian pilots.
Sam Gardiner, a retired U.S. air force colonel who runs wargames for various Washington agencies, said Israel would likely be able to spot Russian-operated aircraft in good time.
"Russian aircraft would probably have a different 'signature' - even if they're the same airplane they wouldn't be equipped with the same electronics," he said, theorizing that the Israelis would know which Syrian airbases were being used by Russia and be able to trace Russian-language radio communications to the jets or helicopters they came from.
Abbas set to annul Oslo accords, declare Palestine a state under occupation - By Avi Issacharoff -
http://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-set-to-annul-oslo-accords-declare-palestine-a-state-under-occupation/
Chief negotiator Saeb Erekat seen as mastermind behind moves, for which a recent Abbas 'resignation' served as a smokescreen
The fog created by the ostensibly impending resignation of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas appeared to clear Monday, as details emerged indicating that the resignation threats were a diversion ahead of a dramatic move planned by the Palestinians: declaring Palestine a state under occupation and reneging on their obligations as detailed in the Oslo Accords.
The move was apparently decided on several months ago by Saeb Erekat, the acting head of the Palestinian negotiating team and the secretary general of the PLO's executive committee, who was the man behind a document setting out the Palestinians' diplomatic moves against Israel during the month of September.
Erekat, who is expected to be elected as a full member of the PLO Executive Committee at the organization's next meeting, is already emerging as one of the most powerful men in Abbas's circle and a potential successor to the 80-year-old PA president. Erekat was also the brains behind the Palestinian plan to ramp up pressure on Israel by joining institutions and organizations like the International Criminal Court at The Hague and others.
One senior PLO official, Ahmed Majdalani, told the Palestinian Ma'an news agency on Sunday that the central committee would discuss the above-mentioned resolutions in its coming session. After voting on the decisions, the Palestinians are expected to announce the annulment of all agreements signed between the PLO and Israel, and to declare a new relationship with the Jewish state. Majdalani added that an announcement has already been drafted by the preparatory committee of the Palestinian National Council.
The Oslo Accords, as well as the agreement signed in Sharm el Sheikh in 1994, are expected to be canceled. Also set to be annulled are an economic agreement signed in Paris and several pacts on security cooperation between the Palestinian Authority and Israel.
At this stage, it is still not yet clear what the actual implications of such a decision will be. It will reportedly be accompanied by an announcement by Abbas at the United Nations General Assembly session at the end of the month, where he is expected to say that in light of the annulment of the agreements, Palestine will be considered a state under occupation.
Israel unfazed by PA threat to end Oslo accords, declare Palestine occupied state - By Raphael Ahren -
http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-unfazed-by-pa-threat-to-end-oslo-accords-declare-palestine-occupied-state/
Palestinian Authority always warning it will 'jump off a cliff,' says official, accusing Abbas of engaging in 'brinkmanship' while refusing to negotiate
Israel is unimpressed by reports about the Palestinians reportedly threatening radical unilateral moves at the United Nations, a senior Israeli official said Monday, accusing the Palestinian Authority of "brinkmanship" while reiterating Jerusalem's willingness to immediately resume bilateral peace negotiations.
"We view these threats with a certain amount of skepticism," the official told The Times of Israel, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the matter with the press. "The Palestinians routinely negotiate through brinkmanship. If they don't get what they demand, they threaten to jump off the cliff."
The Palestinian leadership has threatened to resign, to dismantle the PA and even to dissolve the Oslo Accords several times over the last few months, the official added.
New reports indicate that PA President Mahmoud Abbas is planning to make a drastic announcement at the United Nations General Assembly this month, declaring Palestine a state under occupation and dissolving the Oslo Accords and other bilateral agreements with Israel. While it remains unclear what implications such a move would entail, some warn that it could spell the end to Israeli-PA security coordination and place all responsibility for the governance of the West Bank in the hands of Israel as the occupying power.
"The prime minister is ready for the immediate resumption of peace talks without any preconditions, but the Palestinians refuse to engage," the Israeli official said. "By placing unnecessary preconditions on the talks, they make the resumption of talks impossible. Then, after preventing talks from happening, they run to international community and say no negotiations, crisis, drastic action is required. But it's a charade."
The only reason for the absence of meaningful negotiations is the Palestinians' refusal to negotiate, the official added. "It's time the international community refused to accept this charade and told the Palestinians that it's time to return to talks with Israel. It's the only way to move forward."
Israeli officials on Monday refused to comment on the record about the Palestinians' possible démarche at the UN. In private conversations, they deemed it a toothless "provocation," but acknowledged that they were nevertheless concerned, because no one really knows what exactly Ramallah is up to and how Jerusalem will react.
While generally considered an unlikely scenario, the Palestinians' annulment of the Oslo Accords could have serious implications, as they regulate security and economic cooperation between Israel and the PA.
On the other hand, the threat to declare Palestine "a state under occupation" appears less threatening, as it might have no concrete implications.
"It's an empty statement," said Alan Baker, a retired Israeli diplomat and former legal adviser to the Foreign Ministry. "I don't think it has any significance whatsoever. Nothing Abbas says, no declaration he makes at the UN, will change anything on the ground."
The only thing it would achieve, Baker said, is to invalidate his status as president of the PA, as well as the legitimacy of the Palestinian parliament and courts. "It would also open up the opportunity for Israel to do whatever it deems necessary to protect its security and political interest, and could even cause possible termination of security and economic cooperation and other measures that are intended for the benefit of the Palestinian people."
Is it even possible for Palestine to become a "state under occupation"? In his speech in New York later this month, Abbas will point to the General Assembly's 2012 decision to accept "Palestine" as a non-member observer state and argue that Israel refuses to end the occupation of his state.
However, some argue that only existing states can be considered occupied, such as France during World War II or, more recently, Ukraine's Crimea, which was occupied by Russia. But "Palestine" seeks to achieve statehood while under occupation, a situation without historical precedent. A state can only become "occupied" if parts or all of the territory it controlled is in effective control of another power, some legal scholars argue. That would not be the case here.
The Palestinians, however, are likely to argue that a sovereign "Palestine" existed before the 1967 Six Day War, when Israeli captured the West Bank and Gaza Strip, even though that appears to be a difficult position to defend among international law scholars.
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