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Friday, April 21, 2017

N.KOREAN UPDATE: 4.22.17 - Will Nuclear Deterrent Keep North Korea EMP Threat at Bay?


Will Nuclear Deterrent Keep North Korea EMP Threat at Bay? - Bob Unruh - http://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=1167
 
WND has been reporting on the threat to America from EMP, the electromagnetic pulse from a nuclear explosion high in the sky, since early in the 2000s when former CIA chief James Wooley, former Defense Department staffer F. Michael Maloof and former Congressional EMP Commission member Dr. Peter Vincent Pry were sounding the alarm.
 
It was only weeks later that North Korea as a possible aggressor was brought into the conversation.
 
Nothing has gotten better since then, according to Pry, who agreed to an interview with WND on Friday, and in fact, it's worse.
 
In fact, the saber-rattling from North Korea dictator Kim Jong Un in recent days and weeks, the threats to destroy America, the warnings about "nuclear thunderbolts," and more, should be taken very seriously, he suggested.
 
It's not just that North Korea may have missiles that could reach the United States, and may have a nuclear warhead that could be fitted on the rockets, it could have already put in place the potential for a nuclear blast and EMP attack when it wants.
 
It's because, Pry explained, North Korea first launched one satellite, then a second, in oddly circuitous orbits that have them approach from the south of America, where there are no early warning systems, there are no interceptor missiles, or any defense.
 
And the satellites, in fact, could actually contain a nuclear weapon ready to detonate.
 
Pry, who is executive director of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security, and director of the U.S. Nuclear Strategy Forum, and served on the Congressional EMP Commission, as well as the Congressional Strategic Posture Commission and more, says the alarm truly is serious.
 
"All of us," he said, referring to a team of experts in the field, "have written we think that the threat, the possibility of a super-EMP warhead is so great, the United States should take them [North Korea's satellites] down," he told WND.
 
"We ought not tolerate them orbiting," he said, because nobody knows for sure what's on the satellites, which are in that suspicious orbit which was identified years earlier as a possible route should the Soviet Union ever decide to mount an assault on the U.S., the south polar trajectory.
 
The problem is that a significant EMP attack properly carried out in the skies over the United States could take down the nation's electronic infrastructure.
 
Electronic systems. All of them. Computers, networks, communications, systems that provide fuel and electricity. Systems that provide fuel and food, banking, medical systems, everything.
 
The estimates range widely but there easily could be multiple tens of millions of fatalities across the U.S. following such an attack, because food wouldn't be available, as all the electronics allowing the shipping systems to operate all would be gone.
 
Pry said it would be, literally, a new stone age.
 
"The dark ages can come back... literally.... It's that stark: A cliff waiting for us to fall over," he said.
 
The EMP threat, he said, is the one way where a rogue nation like North Korea could inflict horrible damage on the U.S., possibly even neutralize it. After all, if the electronic controls were gone, would it even be possible for the nation to respond to an attack militarily?
 
The U.S., he said, would be "blind and defenseless."
 
He said the suspicions about why the satellites were put into an orbit that approaches the U.S. from a concealed direction, and fly directly overhead, are great.
 
"What does North Korea want to do, helps us with our problem with climate change?" he wondered. "It's so implausible.
 
Unless they are practicing for an attack.
 
The concept of a nuclear deterrent, the idea that an enemy would respond with nukes, is what kept the world away from nuclear conflict all during the Cold War and since. But Pry, who described North Korea's dictator as "Caligula with nuclear weapons," said that might not impact a decision from the closed kingdom.
 
Many people also consider that North Korea isn't capable of the technology required for such an attack, he said. But consider that North Korea, at times, has been close to both China and Russia, both of which are considered capable of most of the same technology that the U.S. uses.
 
North Korea has threatened another nuclear test as early as this weekend even as the politics seem to be turning against the regime.
 
WND reported Friday Kim Jong Un - described only last week by Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., as the "crazy fat kid" - now is threatening a "big event" and "nuclear thunderbolts."
 
The close ally of China has become bolder in its rhetoric in recent years as Barack Obama's foreign policy has left American enemies wondering about Washington's willingness to defend itself.
 
North Korea has done several tests of nuclear devices in defiance of international bans and has issued multiple threats to kill Americans and destroy the U.S.
 
However, under President Trump, the U.S. has been clear about its intent to destroy ISIS, as was this week with the delivery of a gigantic, nearly 11-ton bomb on ISIS fortifications in Afghanistan.
 
Trump also has been pressuring China for fairer trade policies and to crack down on Pyongyang.
 
Something must have worked, as the North Korean news agency on Friday blasted its "long-standing ally China" and implied Beijing was "'cooperating' with Washington for the collapse of North Korea."
 
The agency also reported Pyongyang's threats to deliver "nuclear thunderbolts."
 
North Korea's newest saber-rattling comes after there was word from unidentified U.S. intelligence officials, via NBC, that the U.S. is ready to launch a pre-emptive strike against North Korea - with conventional weapons - if it appears North Korea is going forward with more nuclear testing.
 
Kim Jong Un has said a "big event" is coming, and U.S. officials revealed the the U.S. has dispatched two destroyers to an area just 300 miles from North Korea's nuclear test site.
 
The U.S. also has bombers stationed in Guam, and the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier strike group is moving into the region.
 
Only two months ago Maloof reported Pyongyang had been able to launch two satellites, even though nobody knows what they are doing.
 
At that time Jim Oberg, who is one of the few American scientists to visit North Korea's Sohae space launch site in the northwest corner of the country, expressed similar concerns about the content of North Korean satellites.
 
Oberg is a retired space shuttle Mission Control specialist with NASA and worked for U.S. Space Command.
 
"There have been fears expressed that North Korea might use a satellite to carry a small nuclear warhead into orbit and then detonate it over the United States for an EMP strike," Oberg said in a Space Review article. "These concerns seem extreme and require an astronomical scale of irrationality on the part of the regime.
 
"The most frightening aspect, I've come to realize," he said, "is that exactly such a scale of insanity is now evident in the rest of this 'space program.'"
 
In making his visit to the Sohae site in 2012, Oberg said the North Koreans tried to assure him that the satellite launches were for peaceful purposes. However, he was not convinced.
 
"The charade that Pyongyang's satellite program was purely for peaceful space exploration and applications was pitifully transparent from the start," Oberg said. "The real mystery was what was the true unseen purpose of the enormous expense that the government was pouring into the program."
 
In 2014, WND reported that a "long-suppressed report" from the Department of Homeland Security concluded North Korea could, in fact, deliver on its threats to reach the U.S. with an EMP attack.
 
In the suppressed study, DHS said that if North Korea attempted to deploy the Unha-3 space launch vehicle or the Taepodong-2 intercontinental ballistic missile, the Defense Department should destroy the missile on its pad before launch.
 
At the time, however, President Obama and the White House "repeatedly asserted that North Korea did not yet have the capacity to attack the United States or U.S. allies with nuclear missiles."
 
A report from just last year said North Korea's satellites are fully capable of performing a surprise EMP attack at an altitude and trajectory that evade U.S. National Missile Defenses.
 
 
An unidentified North Korean ballistic missile exploded seconds after it was launched Sunday, April 16, from a site near the port city of Sinpo, just as US Vice President Mike Pence arrived in Seoul for talks with.
 
the South Korean government on how to deal with Pyongyang's belligerence. The medium-range missile failure occurred the day after a spectacular military parade rolled through central Pyongyang to mark the 105th anniversary of North Korea's founder Kim Il-sung. It showcased 50 missiles, including the first display of a submarine-launched missile.
 
Missile launches have failed before - and not just in North Korea. But worth noting are the comments by US officials before and after the North Korean missile detonated: "We had good intelligence before the launch and good intelligence after the launch," was one. The US Pacific Command said it had detected and tracked what it assessed to be a North Korean ballistic missile launch. Another US official remarked: "It's a failed test. It followed another failed test. We don't need to expend any resources against that."
 
The responses of US officials and the concurrence of the failed detonation with the arrival of the US vice president suggest that North Korea's missile and nuclear programs are closely monitored by US intelligence, electronic and cyber tools. A previous North missile launch on April 5 suffered an in-flight failure before the weapon crashed into the Sea of Japan. There was also an unsuccessful missile launch in late March.
 
Out of a basketful of aggressive options, debkafile's military and intelligence experts pick the four most likely methods the Americans may have applied to thwart the latest North missile launch:
 
1. Sabotage of the missile's fuel, guidance, or communications systems, or of its exterior or the launch pad.
 
Method: Cutting of cables or fuel lines, changing the flight system's programming, etc.
 
Possible perpetrators: Engineers secretly collaborating with the US or those motivated by hatred, jealousy or other factors.
 
2. Sabotage of the missile's command and control system, such as changing its flight commands, ignition system, or ordering it to self-destruct, as is done to avoid landing in an unintended location or falling into enemy hands.
 
Method: Secretly planting instructions in the command and control system, or interfering with the controllers in charge of sending instructions to the missile
 
Possible perpetrators: mission control staff or military engineers involved in the composition of the command and control programs.
 
3. Electronic warfare against the command and control systems in the mission control center by sending powerful electromagnetic pulses to disrupt communications with the missile.
 
Method: US warships, surveillance planes or satellites
 
Possible perpetrators: US army or navy
 
4. A cyberattack against the missile's control system that changes the electronic commands and downs the missile
 
Method: Planting of malware that enables the attackers to seize control of the computer system without being detected
 
Possible perpetrators: US intelligence agencies, first and foremost the National Security Agency.   
 
 
North Korean Submarine Missile Program Advances - Bill Gertz - http://freebeacon.com/national-security/north-korean-submarine-missile-program-advances/
 
Rapid development of KN-11 missile, submarines, UN says
 
North Korea is making rapid progress on developing submarine-launched ballistic missiles and missile-firing submarines, according to a report by a United Nations panel of experts.
 
"Rapid technological developments have taken place over a short period, resulting in significant progress towards an operational submarine-launched ballistic missile system," the eight-member U.N. panel of experts stated.
 
The report provides new details on Pyongyang's development of a submarine-launched missile called the KN-11.
 
"The shift from liquid- to a solid-fuel engine for the KN-11 is a major technological development, affording greater stability, quicker preparation and longer fuel storage," the report states.
 
The report provided photographs of the Gorae-class submarine used to launch the missile.
 
The development of a missile-firing submarine by North Korea was first disclosed by the Washington Free Beacon in August 2014 amid skepticism among naval experts who said the communist state lacked the advanced technological capabilities needed for such a complex weapon.
 
Since the disclosure, North Korea conducted numerous ground and land tests at a facility on the east coast called Sinpo.
 
Sinpo was the site of a failed missile test on Saturday when a liquid-fueled extended range Scud missile blew up shortly after launch.
 
Tensions remain high in the region amid a war of words between Washington and Pyongyang. North Korea has said its missile tests will be carried out weekly. Fiery North Korean rhetoric recently included claims nuclear war could break out at any moment.
 
The submarine was shown in the report with a modification to its launch platform that helped solve ejection and stability problems.
 
"To this end, vents were added on either side of the launch tube," the report said. "These improvements are notable given that this vessel will likely serve as the basis for future submarine-launched ballistic missile submarines with multiple tubes."
 
The sole Gorae submarine uses a single launch tube, an indication the vessel is a prototype.
 
The North Korean program appears to mimic characteristics of the first generation U.S. nuclear-tipped sub-launched missile program known as Polaris.
 
The KN-11 uses launch techniques similar to the Polaris, first deployed in the 1960s, that follow the sequence of launch, broach through water, ignite the engine, align the missile, and fly toward targets.
 
The UN report said member states should avoid exporting dual-use commercial items that could bolster the submarine missile program.
 
A watch list of 60 items that could be used by North Korea for submarine parts was published in December by the South Korean government.
 
The components include steel plates, acoustic coatings, and underwater communication gears.
 
Five tests of the KN-11 were carried out last year, including an ejection test March 16, a failed flight test on April 23, another failure on July 9, and a 300-mile flight test on Aug. 24.
 
"Four KN-11 tests occurred within five months from the Sinpo area, showing rapid development," the report said. "The test of 24 August, by successfully going through ejection, boost and flight phases, was unprecedented in demonstrating the country's capabilities with regard to submarine-launched ballistic missiles."
 
Regarding the April 23 test, images revealed a successful un-ignited ejection of a two-stage KN-11 emerging from the water, the missile igniting just above the surface and then flying for 19 miles.
 
The report said the April 23 test was significant in identifying the use of solid-fuel propellant and comparing the exhaust plume with a similar liquid-fuel missile test on May 8, 2015.
 
Additionally, North Korea has developed a gas generator that is attached to the bottom of the missile that is used to eject it from the missile tube.
 
According to the UN experts, the Sinpo shipyard where the submarine-launched missile is being developed is being expanded with a main fabrication hall. "The main hall may be used to construct additional, larger submarines that are capable of carrying more than one submarine-launched ballistic missile," the report said.
 
A second hall could be used as a future loading and unloading facility for submarine-launched ballistic missiles.
 
Air Force Gen. John Hyten, commander of the Strategic Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee in prepared testimony April 4 that while North Korea does not pose an existential threat to the United States "it remains the most dangerous and unpredictable actor in the Pacific region."
 
"Pyongyang's evolving ballistic missile and nuclear weapons program underscore the growing threat," Hyten said. "It continues to defy international norms and resolutions, as demonstrated by a number of provocative actions this past year, including their fourth and fifth nuclear tests."
 
North Korea also is building long-range and submarine-launched ballistic missiles and an improved intermediate-range missile.
 
"These developments highlight its commitment to diversify its missile forces and nuclear delivery options, while strengthening missile force survivability," he said.
 
"North Korea also continues efforts to expand its stockpile of weapons-grade fissile material and has demonstrated its capability and willingness to conduct destructive cyber-attacks against the United States and its allies."
 
The UN report was led by Hugh Griffiths, the coordinator of a panel of experts that includes members from the United States, Africa, Asia, and Europe. Other members of the panel include Benoit Camguilhem, Dmitry Kiku, Youngwan Kim, Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt , Maiko Takeuchi, Neil Watts and Jiahu Zong.
 
 

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