Leaving Syria: A blow to US deterrence, a boost to Middle East Islamist - By Yaakov Lappin -
U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to pull out of northern Syria will contribute to a regional power vacuum that Islamists, both Sunni and Shi'ite, will promptly look to fill.
The decision by U.S. President Donald Trump to pull back troops from northern Syria in the face of a likely Turkish offensive against Kurdish forces is a blow to American deterrent power in the Middle East. It is also a move that looks set to hasten the creation of a power vacuum, which a variety of Islamists will look forward to filling.
While it's too soon to know the full impact the move will have, it raises several potential scenarios, some of which would be deeply destructive for regional security.
The Pentagon was reportedly taken by surprise by the decision. Some of the fiercest criticism to Trump's sudden move came from the president's own Republican allies and those who had worked closely with him.
Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-S.C.) blasted the decision as shortsighted, impulsive and irresponsible in its treatment of the Kurds-a loyal U.S. ally-as well as wind up being a move that will prove beneficial to ISIS and Iran, the world's foremost state-backer of terrorism.
After receiving a rare rebuke from Republican allies, Trump responded with a tweet saying he would "obliterate" the Turkey economy if it does anything he considers to be "off limits."
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been threatening to invade northern Syria in order to destroy Kurdish YPG forces, which are a central part of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The SDF has been a key U.S. partner on the ground in Syria, spearheading land operations against ISIS's caliphate, playing a key role in the caliphate's destruction and losing an estimated 11,000 fighters in the process.
Now, the SDF has been abandoned to the designs of an Islamist Turkey bent on starting a new war with the Kurds. Erdoğan wants his military to take over the SDF's area of operations-an area that includes the Al-Hawl refugee camp in northern Syria, which is crawling with ISIS loyalists, and which observers have warned would form the basis of an ISIS revival if the site stops being secured by the SDF.
Brett McGurk, a former presidential envoy who worked under Trump to help shape the campaign against ISIS in Syria, warned in a tweet on Monday that Turkey has "neither the intent, desire, nor capacity to manage 60k detainees" in Al-Hawl. "Believing otherwise is a reckless gamble with our national security," he stated.
As a result, the first two potential beneficiaries of Trump's decision are Turkey and ISIS.
A resurgent ISIS would destabilize the region, and a new Turkish-Kurdish conflict has the potential to create a new humanitarian disaster.
Countering the regional threat posed by Tehran
The Kurds in Syria, for their part, find themselves in the nightmare scenario of being fully abandoned to Turkey's whims and can be expected to make desperate efforts to find a new superpower friend. That can only be Russia, which has demonstrated full loyalty to its clients, already maintains a powerful military presence in Syria and whose regional credibility has surpassed that of the United States, which is seen to be turning inwards, disengaging from the region and even betraying allies.
This doesn't mean, however, that Russia welcomes the move, as Moscow hasn't signaled approval of a Turkish incursion into Syrian territory. Its interest is in preserving the regime sovereignty of Syrian President Bashar Assad and stabilizing the country. Turkey's plans would undermine those interests.
An additional beneficiary of the U.S. withdrawal is likely to be Iran. Iranian-backed militias are located to the south and east of Kurdish-controlled northern Syria, and these forces are likely to try to fill some of the vacuum left behind.
Iran is working to flood Syria with its proxy forces, and to build a continuous land corridor between Iraq and Syria. America's military presence in northern Syria-and the presence of pro-American Kurdish forces-helped block such efforts. Now that roadblock looks set to be lifted.
From a wider regional perspective, the Iranian regime has assessed that isolationism and adversity to risk-taking is driving Trump's agenda in the region, and it is this calculation that led the Iranians to dare strike Saudi Arabian oil facilities in September, using advanced cruise missiles and explosive drone swarms.
That attack, launched from Iranian territory according to U.S. intelligence sources, forms the most significant strike on Middle Eastern oil sites since the 1991 Gulf War and shook up the global oil market.
As the Iranians predicted, no military response followed.
These developments have the potential to embolden Iran to hasten violations of what remains of the 2015 nuclear deal and restart its nuclear program.
In light of the above, Israel's military independence and freedom of maneuver is essential. Israel must be prepared to engage an Iran that is growing in confidence, and that is increasingly willing to use its own military forces to attack Israel and Sunni Arab states.
Israel must work with pragmatic Sunni powers in the region to counter the Iranian threat, based on the assumption that Trump is interested in militarily disengaging from the Middle East.
The Israel Defense Forces is building itself up to be able to defeat any combination of enemies, with a combination of powerful offensive and defensive capabilities. Israel is continuing to develop its multi-layered air defense system, and building up its air, sea, and land forces. As Iran continues to try and surround Israel with missile bases, terrorist staging areas and a variety of terror armies, Israel's ability to defend itself by itself may be put to the test in the not too distant future.
Is Israel facing the biggest conflict since Yom Kippur War? - Assaf Schneider -
Opinion: Israel's next war will be the inevitable fight against Iran and its regional proxies, with thousands of rockets bombarding us from Gaza, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon; that war will shake us like we haven't been shaken since October 6, 1973
The words "sixth of October" send chills down the spine even 46 years later. Or, at least they should, assuming that the lessons of the 1973 Yom Kippur War (that started on this date) have been learned and internalized.
On Sunday, just days before yet another Yom Kippur, the political-security cabinet was to meet for the first time since the September elections (despite the endless political turmoil Israel has found itself in since the national vote) to discuss a "sensitive situation."
At this point it's impossible to know whether there is actually something serious or it's yet another political spin. Because everything feels like it's still part of an election campaign. The bottom line is although I wish it was all a spin, I still want the issues discussed there to be serious.
There are two disturbing similarities between 1973 and 2019. The first is that there is a ruling political party that in the eyes of a sizeable chunk of the public is invincible and can get away with practically anything. The second is the fact that defense intelligence is being made public - if you only open your eyes and look closely.
Anwar Sadat, who at the time was Egypt's president, a year before the war described in a detailed interview to Newsweek how one and a half million of Egyptian soldiers were preparing for a war that his regime could not escape.
Like Sadat, many speeches of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah also give away his main operational objectives with regards to Israel - occupation of the Upper Galilee, accompanied by heavy rocket fire.
The alleged Iranian attack on Saudi oil fields, however, shows that Israel has spent years learning to neutralize weapons of wars we had already fought. We built anti-ballistic missile defense systems, while the Iranians were developing cruise missiles.
Although the pinnacle of our defense establishment has recorded hundreds of great accomplishments, what about the infantry or armored brigades? Will the home front cope if there's an all-out war?
However you want to spin it, a war against Iran and its regional proxies is inevitable. According to the intelligence (which at this point has practically been made public) the war will include heavy rocket fire from Gaza, Iran (and the territory under its influence in Iraq), Syria and Lebanon - where ground battles will also be fought.
Are we prepared to face a prolonged bombardment of our civilian population? Will we be able to withstand precision-missile hits that would break our morale?
Israel in 2019, just like in 1973, is a captive of its own concept. This time, however, it is a political concept: a package of fossilized perceptions about the left vs the right; ultra-Orthodox vs secular; Arabs vs Jews, that dictates who will vote for whom in the polls, and who will sit with whom in a coalition government.
All of this political bickering puts us in a vulnerable position where the next war will shake us like we have not been shaken since those sirens rang on October 6, 1973.
ISTANBUL/BEIRUT (Reuters) - A looming Turkish incursion into northern Syria is set to reshape the map of the Syrian conflict once again, dealing a blow to Kurdish-led forces that have battled Islamic State while widening Turkey�s territorial control at the border.
WHAT DOES TURKEY WANT?
Turkey has two main goals in northeast Syria: to drive the Kurdish YPG militia which it deems a security threat away from its border, and to create a space inside Syria where 2 million Syria refugees currently hosted in Turkey can be settled.
It had been pushing the United States to jointly establish a �safe zone� extending 20 miles (32 km) into Syrian territory, but repeatedly warned it could take unilateral military action after accusing Washington of dragging its feet.
President Tayyip Erdogan has recently talked about pushing even deeper into Syria, beyond the proposed �safe zone� region to the cities of Raqqa and Deir al-Zor, in order to allow still more refugees to return to Syria.
HOW WILL THE KURDS BE AFFECTED?
The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have spent years expanding its control across northern and eastern Syria, helped by the U.S.-led coalition against Islamic State.
A rare case of a winner in the Syrian war, the Kurds and their allies have set up their own governing bodies while always insisting their aim is autonomy, not independence.
All of this could unravel in the event of a major Turkish invasion that would plunge the area into warfare. The SDF-affiliated Syrian Democratic Council said an attack would trigger a new wave of mass displacement.
For the SDF alliance, in which the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia is the dominant force, much will depend on whether the United States continues to keep forces in other parts of the northeast and east. A full U.S. withdrawal would expose the area to the risk of more Turkish advances, an Islamic State revival, or attempts by Iranian- and Russian-backed government forces to gain ground.
Confronted by the prospect of U.S. withdrawal last year, the Kurds beat a path to Damascus for talks over allowing the Syrian government and its ally Russia to deploy at the border.
The talks made no progress, but such negotiations could be an option again in the event of a wider U.S. withdrawal.
HOW FAR COULD TURKEY GO?
The northeastern border region, currently controlled by Kurdish-led forces, stretches 480 km (300 miles) from the Euphrates river in the west to the Iraq border to the east.
The immediate focus of Turkey�s military plans appears to be around a section of the border between the towns of Ras al-Ain and Tel Abyad, which are about 100 km apart. A U.S. official told Reuters on Monday U.S. forces had withdrawn from observation posts there.
Although under the control of Kurdish-led forces, that part of the border has historically had a strong Arab presence.
�It�s a region where the population is Arab and where Turkey has good ties with the leading groups,� said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli of the German Marshall Fund. If the YPG tries to hold territory there �it will lose a lot of blood,� he said.
Turkey has not spelt out the scope or the initial focus of its planned operation. �The location, time and scope for implementing the measures against security risks will once again be decided by Turkey,� a Turkish official told Reuters.
Trump Turkey decision advances prophecy clock - Bill Wilson - www.dailyjot.com
President Donald Trump's agreement to allow Turkey to invade Northern Syria endangers the lives of Kurdish allies, Christians in the area, and advances the prophecy clock. This is a foreign policy decision where withdrawing American troops in the area could very well allow the mass genocide of Kurds who loyally supported the US in the fight against ISIS. Turkey long has wanted to attack the Kurds in Syria, which Turkish dictator "president" Tecep Tayyip Erdogan believes pose a threat to Turkey's national security. Iran also seeks to control the Kurds. This foreign policy decision by the US president has the makings of converging Iran and Turkey into a conflict that has massive end-time implications.
According to sources with knowledge of the situation, Iran has made incredible advances toward controlling the Middle East in Syria, Iraq, Kurdistan, and Lebanon. In Daniel 8:19, Gabriel says, "Behold, I will make thee know what shall be in the last end of the indignation: for at the time appointed the end shall be. The ram which you saw having two horns are the kings of Media and Persia. And the rough goat is the king of Grecia." Strong's Concordance interprets the word "Grecia" in Hebrew as "Yavan, a son of Japheth (the third son of Noah), his descendants and their land." The Genesis 10 table of nations indicates this area was not only Greece (as Bible interpretations imply), but also the Eastern Mediterranean, including parts of modern Turkey (Magog, Tubal, Meshech). The ram would correspond with modern Iran.
Turkey also has been making moves to cement power over the Middle East. In January, after the US announced it was pulling out of Syria, Erdogan met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russia supports Iran. Syria is a vassal state of Iran. A 1998 agreement between Russia and Turkey, according to Bloomberg, "states that Syria won't permit any activity on its territory that would jeopardize Turkey's security." Putin was leveraging the 1998 agreement to say that Syria will take care of the Kurds in Syrian territory, hoping that Turkey will restore ties with Syria. Prophecy will eventually bring clarity to this complex situation, and it appears that the US president is accelerating that clarity.
Ezekiel 38 says that in the end of days, God will put a hook in Gog of Magog, the chief prince of Meshech and Tubal (all in Turkey), to lead a coalition of Persia (Iran), Libya; and Ethiopia (Sudan) against Israel. When we see Iran being brought into such a coalition with Turkey and these prophetic nations aligning against Israel, we know this time is near. This action by the US president not only appears to open the door to possible genocide of Kurds and Christians in Northern Syria, but also advances the prophecy clock by bringing the ram and goat of Daniel 8 into closer orbit. The move by Trump is perplexing because the Kurds, even more than Turkey, have fought against ISIS in Syria. There may be an Ezekiel 38 "hook" in Trump's nose leading into these end-time events. Watch and pray.
'Israel will defend itself, by itself, against any threat' - By Yori Yalon -
In comments directed primarily towards Iran, the prime minister said at a Yom Kippur War memorial ceremony at Mount Herzl in Jerusalem: "The IDF is prepared to preempt any threat, defensively and offensively, with crushing strength in weaponry and in spirit."
Israel will never rely on other countries for its defense, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday, warning Iran that it would not ignore its threats of destruction.
Netanyahu, who spoke at the Hall of Remembrance on Mount Herzl in Jerusalem during the state memorial ceremony for the fallen soldiers of the 1973 Yom Kippur War, said that the lessons of the war made it clear that Israel could not afford to sit idly by as dangers amplify.
"The current focus of aggression in the Middle East is the Iranian regime in Tehran. Iran is striving to tighten its grip in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and the Gaza Strip," he said. "It is relentlessly arming itself. It is equipping its proxies with dangerous weaponry. It is attacking freedom of navigation in international shipping lanes. It downed a large American UAV. It mounted a crude and unprecedented attack on Saudi oil fields. It has repeatedly crossed its threshold of brazenness."
Netanyahu said Israel was unique in that it had to deal with a major Islamic country actively calling for its annihilation.
"Iran threatens to wipe us off the map. It says explicitly: 'Israel will disappear.' It has tried to attack us repeatedly; therefore, we must stand ready to defend ourselves against danger," warned the prime minister.
He added that while Israel was tremendously grateful to get strong support from the United States, it must focus on its own capabilities.
"We do not aspire to be 'a people who dwell alone,' but we were forced to do so at the start of the Yom Kippur War; only towards the end did the American aid arrive. Like in 1973, today we very much appreciate the important support of the U.S., which has greatly increased in recent years, as well as the major economic pressure that the U.S. is using on Iran," Netanyahu said, noting that "we will always remember and implement the basic rule that has guided us: Israel will defend itself, by itself, against any threat."
"The IDF is prepared to preempt any threat, defensively and offensively, with crushing strength in weaponry and in spirit. This is the tremendous spirit that was instilled in us by the generation of the Yom Kippur War."
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