Jerusalem to remain united in 'Deal of the Century' - Tzvi Joffre - https://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Lebanese-TV-publishes-draft-of-Trumps-Deal-of-the-Century-report-611134
Jerusalem will remain united under mostly Israeli control with some responsibilities shared with a Palestinian state including the West Bank and Gaza, according to a purported draft copy of US President Donald Trump's "Deal of the Century" peace plan for the Middle East published by the Lebanese Al-Mayadeen TV channel on Monday.
The unconfirmed reported draft details the timetable and methods of the plan.
The parts that were released by the TV channel, which is based in Lebanon and affiliated with Hezbollah, discuss a trilateral peace agreement between the Palestinian Authority, Hamas and Israel in which a "new Palestinian state" would be established in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, excluding the settlement blocs which would remain as a part of Israel.
Hamas and the Palestinian Authority are currently in talks to hold overarching elections for the West Bank, Gaza Strip and Jerusalem.
Jerusalem will not be split up in the agreement, but instead will be "shared" between Israel and the Palestinian state, with the Arab population of the city becoming residents of the Palestinian state, according to the reported draft.
Al-Aqsa Mosque will be put under Saudi Arabian control instead of Jordanian control, according to the reported draft. The mosque is currently administered by the Waqf, an arm of the Jordanian Ministry of Sacred Properties. It is unclear whether the rules currently prohibiting non-Muslim prayer at the site would change under Saudi Arabian control. It is also unclear why this change would take place.
The Jerusalem municipality would become responsible for the entire city of Jerusalem, but the Palestinian state would be responsible for education and would pay the Israeli municipality taxes and utilities.
Jews will not be allowed to purchase Arab homes and Arab won't be able to purchase Jewish home - and no additional areas will be annexed to Jerusalem. Holy sites in the city will remain as they are today, according to the report.
In the Gaza Strip, Egypt would grant land to the new Palestinian state in order to build an airport and industrial facilities. Palestinians would not be able to live in the lands provided by Egypt.
A highway and a pipeline for treated water would be built between Gaza and the West Bank, according to the reported draft. The United States, the European Union and the Gulf states would help implement the agreement and sponsor it economically. "An amount of $30 billion will be allocated over a period of 5 years for projects related to the new Palestinian state," reported Al-Mayadeen.
The United States will provide 20% of the funds in the agreement, while the EU will provide 10% and the Gulf nations will provide 70%. The contribution provided by the Gulf nations will be split between them according to their oil producing capabilities.
According to the draft, an agreement will be signed between Israel and the new Palestinian state, with Israel providing protection to the state from "external aggression," while the Palestinians pay for it. The amount that the Palestinians will need to pay for this protection will be negotiated between the Arab nations and Israel.
The Al-Mayadeen report detailed a timetable provided in the draft copy of the agreement.
Upon the signing of the agreement, Hamas will hand over its weapons and armaments to Egypt, and members of Hamas will receive monthly salaries from Arab nations. The borders of the Gaza Strip will be opened to international trade through the crossings with Israel and Egypt and by sea. Trade will also open between Gaza and the West Bank.
A year after the agreement is signed, democratic elections will be held for the Palestinian state, with all Palestinian citizens being able to run as candidates. Around that time, all prisoners would begin being released, to be completed over a period of three years.
Within five years, a seaport and airport will be established for the Palestinian state. Until that point, Palestinians will be able to use Israeli ports.
The borders between the Palestinian state and Israel will be open to the passage of civilians and goods. A highway that rises 30 meters above the ground will connect Gaza to the West Bank. The highway would be built by a Chinese company.
The Jordan Valley would remain under Israeli control, according to the report. Highway 90 will be expanded and will link the Palestinian state with Jordan. The highway will be supervised by the Palestinians.
If Hamas and the PLO reject the deal, the United States will end all financial support they provide to the Palestinians and will try to prevent other countries from providing support to the Palestinians.
If the PLO accepts the agreement and Hamas or the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) terrorist groups don't accept, then the two organizations would bear the responsibility of their decision. In any military confrontation between Israel and Hamas, the US will support Israel in order to harm the leaders of Hamas and PIJ, as the US won't accept a situation in which dozens of people control the fate of millions.
If Israel rejects the deal, the US will end economic support to the state, according to Al-Mayadeen.
Although Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has said that the US is biased, one of his chief advisers reportedly said they would not reject Trump's plan outright.
A letter published in The Guardian by former EU officials, including six prime ministers and 25 foreign ministers, called for postponing the "Deal of the Century" because it is unfair to the Palestinians.
In the letter, which was sent to the European Union and EU governments, the former leaders argue that Europe must stand by the two-state solution and condemn the Trump administration's policy, which they claim is unilaterally in favor of Israel.
The New EU Push For Palestinian Statehood Is Dangerous For Israel - By Yoni Ben Menachem/JNS.org -
Following the U.S. recognition in November of the legality of Israel's West Bank settlements, Luxembourg's Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn is advancing an initiative calling for the European Union to recognize a Palestinian state.
Last week, Asselborn sent a letter to the E.U.'s new foreign-affairs representative, Josep Borrell, and to the 27 E.U. foreign ministers.
In the letter, he argued that the way to rescue the two-state solution was to create a "more equitable situation" policy-wise between Israel and the Palestinians, to which end he urged the European states to hold a discussion as soon as possible regarding the possibility of recognizing a Palestinian state.
Such a move, he said, would not be anti-Israel.
"In no way would it [such steps] be directed against Israel. Indeed, if we want to contribute to solving the conflict between Israel and Palestine, we must never lose sight of Israel's security conditions, as well as of justice and dignity for the Palestinian people," he wrote in the letter.
According to officials in Jerusalem, Israel's Foreign Ministry is preparing to thwart Luxembourg's new initiative. A debate on the issue is scheduled to be held at the meeting of European foreign ministers in January. Regardless of the ultimate outcome, however, the Palestinians are encouraged by this new European direction.
The Palestinians have been demanding for years that the European Union as a body take practical steps towards the recognition of a Palestinian state. While some European parliaments and governments have recognized a Palestinian state, as yet there has not been any unifying European decision on the issue.
However, all European Union member states, with the lone exception of Hungary, condemned U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo's Nov. 18 statement on Israel's settlements.
More than 135 countries in the world, including Russia, China, Eastern European states and Arab and Muslim countries, already recognize a Palestinian state.
As far as the Palestinians are concerned, Asselborn's initiative is an important step, one with the potential not only to determine the European position on President Donald Trump's Mideast peace plan but also to torpedo the possibility of establishing an autonomous Palestinian region only in the West Bank.
The new European initiative comes shortly after the European Court of Justice ruled that all E.U. member states must clearly label products made in the West Bank, eastern Jerusalem and the Golan Heights as having been produced in an "Israeli settlement." This legal process began in 2015 following E.U. directives to exclude products originating from the territories captured by Israel after the 1967 war.
European Union recognition of a Palestinian state and the adoption of Asselborn's initiative will require a unanimous E.U. member vote--but even recognition by lone European countries of a Palestinian state will be considered a Palestinian achievement.
The complex political situation in Israel is delaying Trump's Mideast peace plan, but Israeli politicians are also trying to further the process of annexing the Jordan Valley, a move backed by the Trump administration.
According to security sources in Israel, Jordanian King Abdullah recently sent Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a communiqu� saying that Israeli annexation of the Jordan Valley would result in Jordan suspending its peace treaty with Israel.
Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas warned on Dec. 9 in a speech in Ramallah that if Israel decides to annex the Jordan Valley, the P.A., too, will cancel all agreements with Israel.
Meanwhile, the P.A. and European countries alike need Israeli approval for elections in the West Bank and for the participation of eastern Jerusalem residents in such elections.
Senior Fatah member Hussein al-Sheikh announced that the Palestinian Authority has officially appealed to Israel to approve the participation of eastern Jerusalem residents in the elections, while Abbas has said that the P.A. is continuing efforts with European countries to urge Israel to allow elections in the Palestinian territories, as Israel did in 1996 and 2006.
Will the Israeli government allow eastern Jerusalem residents to vote in Palestinian elections after the U.S. recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel?
Israel also has other considerations with regard to the issue, and does not have to comply with the request of European countries to agree to elections in the territories. For instance, in 2006, Israel agreed to elections, and the result was the victory of Hamas. Terrorists won the Palestinian parliamentary vote and forcefully expelled the Palestinian Authority from the Gaza Strip a year later.
Therefore, it should be made clear to European countries that recognition of a Palestinian state prematurely determines what should be the outcome of negotiations and unacceptable to Israel. Israel will not take any steps to advance the idea of a Palestinian state without the issue being agreed upon in negotiations.
The Oslo Accords did not recognize the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and did not stipulate that settlement activity should be stopped; the PLO signed it and must respect it.
Unilateral European recognition of a Palestinian state would only enhance antagonism and would not promote peace. Israel withdrew from the Gaza Strip and received in return for its sacrifice an independent terrorist-controlled entity. Israel cannot be expected to repeat the same mistake in the West Bank.
An independent Palestinian state in the West Bank is a serious danger to Israel's security, especially in light of Hamas's efforts to take control of these territories, so Israel must fight this new European initiative with all its might and try to get it removed from the European political agenda.
The New Rocket Threat to Israel - by Jonathan Schanzer -
The latest fighting in Gaza is the tip of the iceberg
Israel's southern population came under attack once again in November 2019. The Iran-backed terrorist group Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) fired more than 450 rockets into Israel from the Gaza Strip. Israelis sprinted to shelters, and the Iron Dome air-defense system once again shielded them from the onslaught. Thousands of miles from the action, sitting in the back seat of an Uber, I was on the phone with an Israeli official on the Gaza border who explained to me, without hesitation, that Israel had picked this fight.
There would be no attempt to spin this, the official said, even as rockets hurtled across the sky above him. Israel fired first, he said, by liquidating Baha Abu al-Ata, the PIJ military commander in the Gaza Strip. Israel tracked him for months, but he always surrounded himself with human shields. So the Israelis stalked him-and when, at last, he failed to shield himself with living human bodies, they struck with deadly precision. The Israeli Air Force did not just isolate its strike to the building, or the floor of the building, or the room on that floor. It struck al-Ata in his bed, reportedly with only his wife at his side. No one else in the building was hurt.
PIJ, in consultation with the group's paymasters in Tehran, responded with predictable ferocity. Yet as rocket fire increased, and even when occasional volleys pierced the Iron Dome's defenses (one struck a highway near the town of Ashdod, narrowly missing traffic), Israel's decision makers demonstrated remarkable restraint. As the official on the phone explained to me, the Israeli Air Force was calmly and selectively taking out PIJ military leaders and operatives when they had a clear shot. The majority of the bombing runs, however, were aimed at PIJ rocket stores. "We're hunting rockets," the official said flatly.
That kind of cool-headed discipline would not be possible without the Iron Dome system. When rockets are prevented from hitting their intended targets, Israeli officials don't hear calls from the public to send in ground troops. And for most defense officials (at least in this current government), there is no desire to escalate in Gaza. Even as it takes out occasional targets of opportunity, Israel prefers to keep its powder dry. The real danger lies to the north, where a brutal conflict is brewing.
Over the past five years, the Israelis have been fighting a quiet war nearly every night. During what is now known as the "Campaign Between Wars" or "War Between Wars," the Israelis have taken out high-value targets-more than 200 of them, according to estimates published last year, and it's probably closer to 300 now-from Syria and Iraq to Lebanon and beyond. As early as 2013, the Israelis spoke euphemistically about such strikes, noting that they were targeting "game-changing weapons" that Iran was transferring to its proxies amid the chaos of Syria's civil war.
Recently, the Israelis have become much more specific. Their targets are precision-guided munitions, or PGMs.
Until now, Israel has been blessed with ill-equipped enemies. The efforts of Iranian proxies such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and PIJ have been mitigated by Iron Dome, which has an 86 percent success rate (some Israeli officials say it's even higher) in neutralizing incoming enemy projectiles. That rate is boosted by the fact that Israel's foes have been firing unguided, or "dumb," rockets. Without GPS or target-acquisition capabilities, many of these rockets undershoot or overshoot their intended targets. When Iron Dome assesses a rocket's errant trajectory, it declines to intercept it and allows it to explode in an uninhabited space.
Iran is now working overtime to establish a program that will allow its proxies to convert their dumb rockets into smart ones. The United States began a process of converting its own unguided rockets into PGMs back in the late 1990s. The Israelis utilized similar technology. The result was the deadly Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM). If the Iranian project proves similarly successful, Israel's enemies will achieve the capability of striking within five to 10 yards of their intended targets.
Converting an unguided rocket (what some Israeli military types call "statistical" rockets) into a precision-guided munition is both simple and complicated. It's simple because all it takes are tail fins, a circuit board, and the right software. One former Israeli official estimates that an entire PGM-making kit might cost as little as $15,000 per munition. But it's also complicated because dismantling a rocket to retrofit it with precision-guided technology and then reassembling it requires knowledge and infrastructure that Iran's low-tech proxies don't have. They are laboring to acquire them. But with the Israelis patrolling from the skies with remarkably accurate intelligence, the tasks of transporting parts and assembling PGMs have become hazardous. Israel's estimated 300 strikes in recent years have reduced the PGM talent pool and destroyed a significant amount of hardware.
Iran and Israel have been playing a quiet game of chess across the Middle East-difficult for the casual observer to discern but punctuated by the periodic explosion. The Iranian effort continues despite the occasional setbacks. And so does the Israeli effort, which is thankless and time-intensive. Both sides understand that when enough PGMs reach the hands of Israel's enemies, the effect will indeed be game-changing.
First, PGMs will force Israel to use far more Iron Dome interceptors than it currently deploys. The cost of each ranges roughly from $50,000 to $100,000. Thus, defending Israel could soon become much more expensive. If Israel had been forced to shoot down all 450 PIJ rocket volleys with Iron Dome in November, the cost would have been as much as $45 million.
More worrying, with enough PGMs fired at the same target, Iran's proxies may be able to outmaneuver, outsmart, or overwhelm Israeli missile-defense systems, with the result that one or more rockets would get through. Hamas already claims to be able to do this with its unguided rockets. Such claims are dubious now. But in the future, if the intended target is the chemical plant in Haifa, the Kiriya (Israel's defense headquarters) in Tel Aviv, Ben Gurion International Airport, or a Tel Aviv office building, the results could be catastrophic. As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's former national-security adviser Jacob Nagel recently told me, "with enough PGMs, the impact on certain targets could be close to the impact of a nuclear weapon." He adds that, for this reason, "after the Iranian nuclear threat, Israeli leaders cite the PGM threat as next on their list."
Currently, the Israelis believe that the Lebanese terrorist organization Hezbollah is the only Iranian proxy group that possesses Iranian PGMs in any significant number. The Israelis are not saying how many Hezbollah has. But they acknowledge that the efforts to interdict PGMs or PGM parts have not completely prevented the technology from reaching Iran's Lebanese surrogate. And Hezbollah continues to work feverishly on this project.
Netanyahu also recently indicated that the Iranian proxy in Yemen, the Houthis, may also have PGMs. So far, the Houthis have targeted only Saudi Arabia with simple rockets, cruise missiles, and drones. Netanyahu's warning implies that the group may one day target Israel with long-range PGMs at Iran's urging.
Of course, the Iranians have their own arsenal of PGMs-more formidable ones. They are not retrofitted but rather built from scratch. And some of them are even immune to GPS-jamming systems, which is one of the best countermeasures Israel has against these munitions.
Israel's military brass would much rather destroy PGMs on the ground than intercept them in the air. One problem they have is patrolling the vast territory Iran controls to build, store, and launch its munitions.
Iran has, for the past five years, been building a land bridge extending across the Levant. The ultimate goal is to establish hegemony across the region. But the short-term goal is far more attainable: to control, via proxy, territory stretching from western Iran through Iraq, into Syria, through Lebanon, and all the way to Israel's doorstep. In addition to deploying Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran is using the Assad regime in Syria and Shiite militias in Iraq to maintain this real estate. Some question whether these proxies would dare fire on Israel with PGMs. The Israelis have answered that question, in part, with those punishing air strikes on Iranian assets in Iraq and Syria.
Critics assert that Netanyahu has cynically used such strikes as a means to campaign as the tougher defense candidate during Israel's unprecedented two rounds of stalemated elections in 2019. But Israeli strikes in Iraq and Syria were not optional in the eyes of the country's military planners. Iranian PGMs, or at least PGM parts or infrastructure, were thought to be there.
Targeting precision-guided munitions will become even more complicated in the future. The regime in Iran is not only working assiduously to obscure their transport and assembly. It is also devising ways to store them under homes, schools, hospitals, apartment buildings, refugee camps, and other heavily populated civilian infrastructure. Israel has already dealt with this problem in Gaza. Hamas conducts military operations from within civilian population centers. The Israelis warn that it will be worse in Lebanon, with Hezbollah's arsenal already strategically embedded in civilian areas. PGMs of an unknown quantity will be among these caches. The decision to strike these weapons on the ground will be excruciating for the IDF. And every strike will create immense public-relations damage, as images of injured or dead civilians fill the television screens and Twitter feeds of news consumers worldwide.
Of course, Israel is not the only country forced to deal with this problem. The United States has encountered human shields on the battlefields of Iraq and Afghanistan, too. The prevalence of the problem prompted President Donald Trump to sign into law the "Sanctioning the Use of Civilians as Defenseless Shields Act." The bill passed unanimously in both the House and Senate before reaching the president's desk in December 2018. A variant of the bill is also circulating at the United Nations.
These measures are important for two reasons. First, when those complicit in building the human-shields infrastructure (tunnels, bunkers, and storage facilities, for example) know they can be sanctioned by the U.S. government or even the UN, they may be less inclined to contribute to this cynical project. Being named can have an immediate impact among the local population, which (with a few exceptions) would not appreciate being treated like cannon fodder.
More important, these measures can enhance the operational legitimacy and freedom of the Israel Defense Force in future conflicts. Once it has been established that targeting human-shields infrastructure is legal and protected from international opprobrium (to some extent), Israel's enemies lose one of their key advantages.
Unfortunately for Israel, no amount of inspired legislation will stop Hezbollah or Iran's other proxy groups from pursuing this precision project. If anything, when the Iranian PGM project comes online, the only significant disruption to the status quo will be inside Israel.
With PGMs, the era of Iron Dome's total dominance may come to an end. This does not mean that the Israelis will stop using this remarkable system to protect its citizens from incoming rockets. But barring significant improvements to counter PGMs, Iron Dome may no longer provide the Israeli leadership with the luxury of time to weigh their options when they must respond to a hailstorm of precision strikes.
Should PGMs pierce Israel's defenses and hit more of the intended targets, the Israeli public will demand a response. The political and military leadership will be forced to respond more rapidly and with greater force. This will increase the odds of mistakes on the battlefield and thus the odds of escalation. And if PGMs are fired from multiple locations, the natural result will be a multifront war.
If Israel doesn't find a way to halt Iran's PGM project, the very character of its wars will change. Despite a steady stream of attacks perpetrated by their enemies in recent years, the Israelis have not needed to fight long or particularly bloody wars. Instead, they have been conducting limited operations. Israel has, in fact, often been able to determine the beginning and end of these flare-ups. Iron Dome's ability to neutralize rudimentary rockets has made that possible. But now, with PGMs in play, Israel may no longer be able to dictate the terms of conflict when its enemies want one.
And let there be no doubt: They want one.
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