WORLD AT WAR: 1.16.21 - Israel determined to prevent Iran from achieving 'Syria Project '

Israel determined to prevent Iran from achieving 'Syria Project ' � Yaakov Lappin � https://www.jns.org/israel-determined-to-prevent-iran-from-achieving-syria-project/ Israel has struck thousands of Iranian targets in Syria in past years to prevent the rise of an Iranian war machine on its border, yet the latest reported attacks in easternSyria still appear unusual for a number of reasons. Media reports carried news of intensive airstrikes against Iranian-linked targets in eastern Syria early on Wednesday, attributed to the Israeli Air Force. The alleged strikesin the Deir al-Zour and Albu Kamal areas were the latest in a long series of reported Israeli attacks that are designed to thwart the Islamic Republic’s attempts at building a war machine in Syria. The airstrikes nevertheless stood out in light of the extraordinary comments made by a senior American intelligence official, who told the Associated Press that the bombingswere enabled by intelligence provided to Israel by the United States. There appears to be no reason to doubt this version of events, marking what would seem to be an unusual acknowledgment of the close level of cooperation between the Americanand Israeli defense establishments in combating the Iranian presence in Syria. Strikingly, the same official said that the targeted warehouses also served as a “pipeline for components that support Iran’s nuclear program,” though no further detailswere immediately available. A second reason that makes the strikes stand out is the unconfirmed report by a Syrian opposition war-monitoring group that at least 57 fighters were killed, including 14Syrian regime soldiers, in addition to Iranian-backed militia members, as well as dozens more wounded. Although uncorroborated, the claim represents a far higher casualty count than those that usually follow such strikes. The attack is part of an unmistakable increase in airstrikes that have been hitting Iranian targets across Syria, marking the fourth known such incident in the past threeweeks. Those incidents include a reported missile attack on Syria’s Scientific Studies and Research Center, also known by its French acronym CERS, north of Damascus. CERS is afacility that is responsible for developing and manufacturing advanced missiles and chemical weapons, and is likely used by both Iran and Syria’s Bashar Assad regime to develop and produce weapons systems, some of which is also destined for Hezbollah’s missiledepots in Lebanon. CERS was also bombed in 2018 and 2019. The area surrounding CERS doubles up as a base for Iranian personnel and Iran-controlled militias in Syria. The other recent attackshave hit reported weapons-production facilities and military bases in southern and western Syria. In attempting to understand why the uptick in alleged preventative Israeli attacks has occurred now, Israel’s former ambassador to the United Nations Danny Danon offeredthis explanation: “Iran is attempting to take advantage of the transition in the United States and in Israel to alter the balance of power. Israel and the U.S. will not allow this. We will act resolutely and as needed.” According to this explanation, Iran is trying to exploit political instability in Israel, which is on its way to its fourth elections in less than two years. That is coupledwith the fact that the Trump administration is about to be replaced by the Biden administration, all while Tehran attempts to scale up its efforts to build a military foothold in Syria. Ebb and flow of Tehran’s efforts over the years It is also important to place the latest incidents in the wider context: Israel has struck thousands of Iranian targets in Syria in recent years, according to comments madein 2019 by former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot. The centerpiece of Eizenkot’s legacy is a low-profile, yet highly effective, campaign of preventative airstrikes to severely dent Iran’s “Syria project” and to roll backTehran’s attempt to turn Syria into an extension of the attack front that it built in Lebanon, where Iran has helped Hezbollah take hold of some 130,000 rockets and missiles, and point them at Israeli cities and strategic targets. In its annual summary for 2020, the IDF stated that “approximately 50 targets were struck on the Syrian front” in the past year, as well as more than 1,400 battle-formationIsraeli Air Force sorties over unspecified areas. These figures reveal a central feature of Israel’s campaign in Syria: It is fueled by the intelligence of Iran’s activities, and the increase and decrease of Israel’s campaignis a direct reflection of the ebb and flow of Iran’s own efforts over the years. The campaign against Iran in Syria has been raging for several years, and often, it is the same sites that are hit over and over again. For example, in March 2020, reports said that unidentified aircraft struck a target in Albu Kamal, the town on the border with Iraq, where Iran had been constructing itsImam Ali military base for the deployment and storage of missiles and fighters. A total of 26 fighters were allegedly killed in that attack. The Iranians had apparently been building a tunnel for hiding weapons at the Imam Ali Base, which replaced an older tunnel also attacked in the past. In June 2020, reports also said that 12 people were killed in an airstrike on an Iran-linked target in Deir Ezzor in eastern Syria, which sits five kilometers (about 3 miles)from the Iraqi border. Deir Ezzor and Albu Kamal are areas that are earmarked by Iran for the construction of a land corridor that would allow Tehran to move weapons, battle formations, and otherresources into Syria from Iraq. If the corridor is completed, Iran would have land access all the way to the Mediterranean Sea, connecting Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon along a single network of roads. Israel has no intention of letting that happen, just as it did not allow Iran to fly cargo planes of advanced missiles into Damascus airport with impunity. Military tensions high between U.S. forces, Iran in Gulf Iran’s efforts are being masterminded by its overseas subversion and terrorism unit, the Quds Force, headed by Esmail Ghaani, who replaced the infamous Maj. Gen. QassemSoleimani after his assassination in Baghdad in January 2020 in a U.S. drone strike. Ghaani appears to be working hard to try and fill Soleimani’s shoes, though with little apparent success to show for it so far. Soleimani’s grand vision was to create air smuggling routes, a land corridor, and naval smuggling routes to flood Syria and Lebanon with precision-guided weapons, bases,missile factories, and militias, and Israel kept that vision firmly in check, just as it is doing with Ghaani’s efforts. Russia, for its part, has no interest in allowing Iran to take over Syria, having earmarked the country for its own long-term military presence and economic reconstructionprograms. Still, Moscow is also keen to avoid witnessing an escalation that can threaten the Assad regime, which it spent years protecting from demise together with Iran. Meanwhile, the atmosphere in the region is particularly explosive and unstable, due to Iran’s determination to seek vengeance for the killing of its chief nuclear-weaponsscientists, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, whom Iran blames Israel for assassinating in November, as well as Hezbollah’s own repeated threats to take revenge for the death of one of its operatives, who was killed in an airstrike on an Iranian target in Syria in July. Military tensions between U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf and Iran also remain high with the possibility of miscalculation is very real. None of these factors, however, are sufficient to deter Israel from enforcing its red lines in Syria and doing whatever is necessary to keep Iran from fulfilling its dangerous “Syria project.” ----------------------------------------------------------------- �Next big step�: Experts advocate relocating Israel to US military�s Central Command � Yaakov Lappin � https://www.jns.org/next-big-step-pro-israel-think-tank-advocates-relocating-israel-to-us-militarys-central-command/ As Iran tensions remain high, moving Israel to CENTOM�s area of responsibility would enable Israel, the United States and Arab partners to conduct joint exercises and planningfor Iran-specific threats, thereby boosting readiness, says Jonathan Ruhe, director of foreign policy at JINSA. As the Middle East remains on edge due to sky-high tensions between the United States and Iran, and with the U.S. Air Force holding a joint drill with Saudi Arabia�s RoyalAir Force, the Pentagon and the Israeli defense establishment remain in close touch as they monitor developments. Yet a report released by the Jewish Institute for National Security of America�a pro-Israel think tank based in Washington D.C., that includes senior former American militarycommanders�has called for that cooperation to be tightened further by relocating Israel away from the area of responsibility of the U.S. Military�s European Command (EUCOM) and to that of the Central Command (CENTCOM), also known as America�s Middle East Command. The report said that while Israel�s inclusion in EUCOM has yielded clear mutual benefits over the years, CENTCOM�s priority is �countering Iran and other forces for extremismin the Middle East, and all our partners in the region�Israel included�are coalescing around a common view of that threat and taking bold steps like the Abraham Accords to counter it cooperatively.� While America�s core interest in Middle East stability remains unchanged even as it pivots away from the region, the report said that �Israel�s future role will includedefending U.S. interests by rolling back Iran�s footprint in CENTCOM�s area of responsibility.� Meanwhile, EUCOM is reverting back to its traditional focus�strengthening NATO to counter Russia, according to the report. �Increasingly shared threats from Iran and its proxies� Jonathan Ruhe, director of foreign policy at JINSA, told JNS that institutional tradition has largely kept Israel under EUCOM�s jurisdiction, a set-up that has endured sinceEUCOM�s creation in 1952. �More recently, there have been real mutual benefits, especially after 9/11, [that] keeping Israel in EUCOM was a clear asset for the United States and other NATO membersthat suddenly needed a partner with hard-won counterterrorism expertise. And EUCOM and Israel have developed robust missile-defense cooperation that clearly benefits both sides,� he explained. The IDF and EUCOM hold a biannual joint missile-defense exercise, called �Juniper Cobra,� which sees the United States practice the rapid deployment of missile-defense systemsand personnel from Europe to Israel to assist in air-defense missions. But a relocation to CENTOM would enable �much stronger, regularized cooperation between Israel and U.S. forces in the Middle East,� argued Ruhe, �which together confrontincreasingly shared threats from Iran and its proxies.� �Moving Israel to CENTCOM could facilitate something approaching a truly regionwide missile-defense network, which could bolster shared early warning,� he said while makingefforts to counter Iran�s proliferation of missiles and drones more effective. Such a move could also encourage the United States to position weapons on Israeli soil, he said, �especially precision munitions that both Israel and CENTCOM would needin abundance in a major conflict with Iran and/or its proxies; currently, EUCOM has little or no reason to replenish these stockpiles since it wants those munitions in Europe for a possible conflict with Russia.� One caveat for the relocation would have to be that CENTOM continues strong, mutually beneficial missile-defense cooperation with Israel, he stressed, adding that �it helpsthat CENTCOM forces have participated in Juniper Cobra in the past, and that CENTCOM and its Arab partners certainly would benefit from stronger ties to Israel�s world-class missile-defense architecture.� Under the present tensions, reassigning Israel to America�s Middle East Command would reinforce military deterrence and send out the message of regional unity against Iranthat�s been so clearly communicated by the Abraham Accords, stated Ruhe. �More concretely, it would enable Israel, the United States and Arab partners to conduct joint exercises and contingency planning for Iran-specific threats. This would boostreadiness and interoperability, including by enabling U.S. and Arab forces in the Middle East to learn invaluable lessons from Israel�s �campaign between the wars� against Iran,� he said, referring to Israel�s campaign of strikes to prevent the Islamic Republicfrom building attack bases in Syria. Asked how the defense establishments of both countries have responded to the idea, Ruhe said that when JINSA first proposed it three years ago, reactions from both weremixed, though more recently, he had been pleasantly surprised at the increasingly positive feedback from both countries. �I think it reflects the fundamental convergence of Israel�s threat landscape with that of key Arab neighbors and U.S. forces in the Middle East, especially as EUCOM understandablyreturns to its traditional European focus on great-power competition with a revanchist Russia,� he stated. Ultimately, since any conflict with Iran�whether Israeli, American or both�will occur mainly in CENTCOM�s area of responsibility, �it would be much easier for Washingtonand Jerusalem to coordinate or at the very least deconflict their forces if Israel were in CENTCOM; by the same token, this would also bolster deterrence against Iran.� The report stated that the recent Abraham Accords between Israel, and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, reflect a growing strategic alignment between Israel and keyAmerican partners in the Middle East, driven primarily by rising Iranian nuclear and regional threats. �American diplomacy played a central role in realizing the accords, underscoring the enduring importance of Middle East stability to our national security. The next bigstep, the report said, is to move Israel into CENTOM, which will enable improved strategic and operational coordination among the United States, Israel and our Arab partners throughout the region against Iran and other serious shared threats.� The U.S. military divides its global presence into seven geographic combatant commands, each of which implements U.S. defense policy and exercises unified command over allAmerican forces in its AOR. In these capacities, they also work with and coordinate among partner militaries, effectively making each COCOM a primary mechanism for U.S-led regional cooperation on strategicplanning, training, doctrine, logistics, intelligence, technology, procurement, operations and other critical military activities. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VISIT: PROPHECY WATCHER WEEKLY NEWS: HTTP://PROPHECY-WATCHER-WEEKLY-NEWS.BLOGSPOT.COM