MIDEAST UPDATE: 6.5.21 - Gaza As A Military Testing Ground for Iran

Gaza As A Military Testing Ground for Iran – Jacques Neriah - https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=4754 Upon examining the course of the 11-day war between Israel and terrorist groups in the Gaza Strip, one cannot help but understand that it was a rehearsal for what is expectedon Israel's northern front. Gaza was a military testing ground for Iran and Hezbollah. They were able to measure Israel's firepower, its interception capability and the limitations of its power, asexpressed by the almost irrational care taken to avoid harm to population centers. Israel's concern for innocent lives was born out of the fear of the world's reaction, its dependence on the United States and the drift that undermined Israel's positionin world public opinion, especially among the U.S. Democratic Party. Decision-makers in Israel, as well as politicians, army officers and academics, often repeat a statement attributed to the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. He allegedlysaid after leaving his bunker following the 2006 Second Lebanon War that had he known that his decision to provoke Israel would cause such destruction, he would not have started the war at all. Accordingly, analysts conclude time and again that Hezbollah's failure to act stems from Israeli deterrence. Since 2006, Hezbollah has embarked on an unprecedented reorganization and re-arming effort with Iranian funding and training, while accumulating a rocket arsenal of morethan 140,000 missiles, some of which possess extremely high accuracy. (By contrast, Hamas in Gaza had an estimated 15,000 rockets when it launched its war in May 2014.) Hezbollah analyzed Hamas's battles against the IDF and will adopt a doctrine of warfare adapted to the new reality. Hezbollah has also publicly announced its plan to capture the Galilee by mobilizing its elite units--the Radwan units--for the construction of a network of underground assaulttunnels, command bunkers, and an extensive maze of fortifications of which only a fraction was exposed some two years ago on the Lebanese border and subsequently neutralized by the IDF. Hezbollah has developed its drone corps and naval units, that are prepared to attack Israel's gas rigs southwest of Lebanon's coast. In addition, as Iran's proxy force inthe region, its combat units have gained valuable operational experience in urban warfare fighting in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, where it was sent by its commanders in Tehran. All of the above elements have been implemented in the Gaza Strip by Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. It comes as no surprise, therefore, to discover that Iran is behindthe Palestinian war effort. Ramez Halabi, a senior member of PIJ, was interviewed on Iraqi television on May 8, 2021. He explained that every weapon in his organization's possession was purchased with Iranian funding and that all his men were trained in Iran. Mocking Israel, he added thatevery missile bears the signature of the late Qassem Soleimani, the Quds Force commander killed by the United States in Iraq in January 2020. After the fighting subsided, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who resides in Qatar, thanked Iran for the financial assistanceand weaponry it has extended to Hamas. From the Palestinian perspective, the war proved that the "Israeli demon" was not as frightening as it used to be. In fact, Israel's last military victory was in 1982, whicheventually resulted in the withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000 under Hezbollah's military pressure. The 2006 war was seen as a Hezbollah victory over Israel, while 2014 demonstrated the extent of Israel's unwillingness to initiate a massive ground entryinto the Gaza Strip. Israel's policy of divide and rule with regard to Hamas in Gaza and the Palestinian Authority has boomeranged. The weakening of the P.A. eventually led to the strengtheningof Hamas and its becoming the dominant factor vis-� -vis Israel. Furthermore, Hamas realized that Israel had wrongly assessed--until the last minute--that Hamas lacked interest in a military confrontation and was deterred. This assessment is paired with the constantly reiterated statement that Israel has no interest in a ground attack on Gaza in order to bring down Hamas. Thanks to the "IronDome," the assessment goes, Israel will content itself with action against Hamas from outside Gaza. The recent confrontation between Israel and Gaza confirmed Israel's reluctance to introduce ground forces into Gaza, both for fear of casualties and due to its lack of desireto control another two million Palestinians. These conclusions are chronicled in Tehran and Hezbollah because the parallel to the situation in Lebanon is self-evident. It does not bode well for Israel that its weaknesses were apparent not only to the Palestinian public but also, and especially, to Hezbollah and Iran, who studied Israel'sbehavior during the 11 days of fighting. The war in Gaza must serve as a very loud wake-up call and cause Israel to rethink its policy toward its enemies in the Arab world. The rising situation requires a drasticchange in Israel's reactions: no more restraint, which is the source of all evil. Continuing the same policy of restraint and the hesitation to use force may encourage Iran and Hezbollah to advance their plans to surprise Israel on other fronts. Thiscould happen if they conclude that Israel will strive to avoid any frontal confrontation with Hezbollah, or a ground incursion that could result in significant casualties by exposing Israel's homefront to significant attacks. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- What does a Bennett-Lapid government mean? � David Isaac - https://www.jns.org/analysis-what-does-a-bennett-lapid-government-mean/ �This looks to me like a car with four different wheels, and every wheel is going in a different direction,� said Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Mordechai Kedar. �The only thing theyagree upon is the need to get rid of [Benjamin] Netanyahu. This objective will be achieved in the first minute of this government.� Yesh Atid Party head Yair Lapid and Yamina Party head Naftali Bennett announced on Wednesday that they have secured an agreement to form Israel�s next government, therebylikely ending the 12-year consecutive term of Benjamin Netanyahu as the country�s prime minister. The new government will be unprecedented in its composition, consisting of seven parties spanning the entire Israeli political spectrum, plus the backing of an Arab partyfor the first time. As such, questions remain over the ability to successfully govern such a disparate group of parties at a time when the country faces serious security threats stemming from Iran and its terror proxies, as well as internal social discordbetween Jews and Arabs. Nevertheless, most analysts JNS spoke with were hopeful, especially when it comes to improving U.S.-Israel ties. �It could certainly help the mood, initially,� Daniel Pipes, president of the Middle East Forum, told JNS, saying that the United States will be pleased with a governmentthat includes left-wing members. Though he cautions, �I could well see the Biden administration disappointed if the right-wing parties�which are, in fact, more right than Netanyahu�have their way.� Pipes expects the right-wing coalition partners to dominate, noting that in the negotiations on forming the coalition, the three right-wing parties�Yamina, New Hope andYisrael Beiteinu��have been in the driver�s seat,� and Yamina, with only seven seats, has been given the premiership. Other analysts are even more optimistic about an upswing in U.S.-Israel relations, including Shmuel Sandler, professor emeritus of Bar-Ilan University and current presidentof Emunah-Efrata College; Eyal Zisser, vice rector of Tel Aviv University and professor of Middle Eastern Studies; and IDF Col. (res.) Elad Shavit, senior researcher on U.S.-Israeli relations at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies. All three believe that recent U.S.-Israel tensions, which they attribute to Netanyahu�s close Republican ties and more confrontational approach, will subside. Shavit disapproves of Netanyahu�s more aggressive approach, noting as an example the prime minister�s remarks on Tuesday, when he said if the choice was between frictionwith the United States and confronting Iran, Israel would choose to clash with its staunchest ally. �Israel needs to carry out discreet strategic talks with the American administration to achieve its results and not to turn differences into a public confrontation,� he said. None see major policy changes in the offing. Pipes notes that not only do right-wing coalition members like Bennett, New Hope�s Gideon Saar and Yisrael Beiteinu�s AvigdorLiberman share the same view of the Iranian regime as Netanyahu, so do centrists like Lapid and Israel�s Defense Minister Benny Gantz of Blue and White. �I don�t imagine there�ll be large differences and maybe a fresh start,� said Pipes. �It�s quite clearthat Meretz and Labor are side-lined.� Sandler agrees that �Iran will be a continuation, more of the same. Everybody in the government understands that Iran is the big enemy, a strategic threat to Israel�s existence.� He notes that the coalition�s ideological differences act as a brake on major policy moves. �You�re not going to see an Oslo here or an annexation,� he said, referring tothe 1992 Oslo Accords, which handed over parts of Judea and Samaria to the Palestinian Liberation Organization, and recent politically opposite efforts to apply sovereignty to sections of those territories. �The basic policy of Israel won�t change,� agrees Zisser, noting also that much of Israel�s security policy is formulated by the Ministry of Defense and the Israel DefenseForces. Even if Bennett or Lapid wanted to enact dramatic policy changes, they wouldn�t have the political capital to overrule those institutions, he says. All the pundits agree that nothing is going to change on any of the major issues confronting Israel, whether it�s the Palestinian conflict, Hamas, Hezbollah or the economy. �He�s the one who�s the glue� Still, not all share a hopeful view of this new government-in-waiting. �This looks to me like a car with four different wheels, and every wheel is going in a different direction,� said Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Mordechai Kedar, senior research associateat the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies. �The only thing today which they agree upon is the need to get rid of Netanyahu. This objective will be achieved in the first minute of this government. So what will keep it together in the second minute?� On the other hand, Sandler and Pipes see the government lasting precisely because of Netanyahu, assuming that he remains the leader of the Likud Party in the opposition. �As long as Netanyahu stays in politics, I think they�re going to stick together. He�s the one who�s the glue,� says Sandler. Kedar acknowledges the logic of this argument, though adds that �the question is which is more powerful: the struggles inside the government or the fear of Netanyahu?� He continues, saying there are too many ideologically based issues and those will lead to a �divorce in this unnatural marriage.� He argues also that there�s no escape fromideology because the voters are watching, and anyone who concedes his agenda will be seen �as some kind of spineless invertebrate.� Kedar foresees that the coalition partners will find themselves caught in an impossible situation. Sensitive issues are embedded in the budget, he notes, like building roads in Judea and Samaria. �If Meretz agreed to such a thing, they�d actually be cutting off the branchon which they sit because according to their ideology, Israel should withdraw from those areas altogether.� On the other side of the coalition are Bennett and Saar, who need to prove their right-wing bona fides precisely by building in those areas. �This is why I think this government will not last more than a few weeks,� says Kedar. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VISIT: PROPHECY WATCHER WEEKLY NEWS: HTTP://PROPHECY-WATCHER-WEEKLY-NEWS.BLOGSPOT.COM