IDF forecast for 2015: Middle East 'mess' will continue - http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=22821
Outgoing head of IDF Military Intelligence research division Brig. Gen. Itai Brun tells Israel Hayom that the Syrian government is still using chemical weapons * Brun: In next war in north, Hezbollah will try to grab territory inside Israel.
"We are expecting the mess in the Middle East to continue in 2015," Brig. Gen. Itai Brun, the outgoing director of the IDF Military Intelligence research division, told Israel Hayom in an exclusive interview this week.
The Syrian government is still using chemical weapons, Brun said. "In the end, Bashar [Assad] has in fact been using chemical weapons on his people throughout all of last year. It's not sarin or VX, but other agents. He uses them on his own population, and to us it seems very natural that terrorist organizations will get their hands on these kinds of weapons, or that they will be transferred to Hezbollah. It may not pose a strategic threat to the [Israeli] home front, but it is certainly a threat to the [Israeli military]."
According to Brun, these chemical agents "neutralize in low doses and kill in high doses. [Assad] used chlorine gas, for example. These are chemicals that may not kill thousands, but people in Syria have already been killed by them."
In the interview, to be printed in full on Friday, Brun addressed for the first time Hezbollah's reaction to the reported Israeli strikes in recent years in Syria and Lebanon. Brun believes Hezbollah is preparing for renewed conflict with the IDF. He said that in the next war in the north, Hezbollah plans to fire more than 1,000 rockets every day in an effort to damage strategic facilities in Israel.
"Unlike in the Second Lebanon War, I believe that next time we will see Hezbollah forces on Israeli soil," Brun warned. "They will come in two forms: One will be terror attacks -- pinpoint strikes in Nahariya or Shlomi or Maalot -- and the other will be more substantial operations to grab territory inside Israel," meaning that a Hezbollah unit would take over an entire community.
In the interview, Brun spoke at length about the Palestinian arena, saying that Hamas is working at full speed to rehabilitate the tunnel network destroyed by the IDF during the latest Gaza campaign -- Operation Protective Edge. He explained, however, that Hamas is not interested in renewing fighting with Israel at this time and is making every effort to rein in rocket fire from Gaza into Israel.
Touching on the Palestinian Authority, Brun concluded that PA President Mahmoud Abbas does not support terrorism. "We have no doubt that Abbas does not want terrorism. He does not use doublespeak and he does not incite, he simply doesn't want terrorism. His way is not the way of terror. There are people who think differently, but this is our understanding of things."
Brun stressed that the Military Intelligence research division has not identified any efforts by the Palestinians, or anyone else, to intervene in the upcoming Israeli elections.
In the interview, Brun also remarked on the spread of the Islamic State group, which he described as "an amazing brand."
"With four yards of orange fabric and a few knives, they managed to enter everyone's minds," he said.
Brun surmised that it would be impossible to defeat ISIS with air power alone, as the U.S. plans to do. He warned that the wave of terrorist attacks that began in Paris last week would continue. "There are thousands of operatives who come from Western countries. They return home after having been trained, equipped and having gained experience, but above all motivated. The terrorist attacks against the West, including against Israeli and Jewish targets, will undoubtedly continue. This is a permanent phenomenon that needs to be confronted."
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