Is ISIL Next Target Israel? - Dr. Steve Elwart - http://www.khouse.org/enews_article/2015/2350/print/
Recently the media and the U.S. Government chooses to call the Islamic Jihadists in Syria IS for Islamic State. Others call it ISIS. The group itself goes by ISIL, which stands for Islamic State of the Levant. Their goal? To reestablish the caliphate of the Levant. What many do not know is that Israel is part of the Levant. (The Levant is made up of the countries of Cyprus, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and part of Southern Turkey.)
It seems as if ISIS has reached a comfortable position in Syria. ISIS and the al-Nusra Front, al-Qaeda's branch in Syria, are still the dominant rebel groups in that country and the Western-backed Free Syrian Army is still able to stand on its own as a fighting force.
With their base seemingly secure, there are indications that ISIS is now setting their sights on continuing their conquest of the Levant by moving on Israel.
There are indications that ISIS has recruited three rebel groups operating in the south of Syria in an area bordering the Israeli occupied Golan Heights. These groups have switched their loyalties from other radical groups to ISIS. Two of the groups are small in number, but the Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade has hundreds of fighters. The Yarmouk Brigades has been at odds with al-Nusra Front and switched now to join what leaders of all three groups believe is the future of Islam.
This means that Israel is now threatened by the Egyptian ISIS group of Ansar Bait al-Maqdis in Sinai in the southwest and by these three ISIS groups in southern Syria. These three Syrian groups that have just joined ISIS could make that situation even worse.
"If Israel was attacked by ISIS, America would expect a proportionate response by Israel, which is militarily capable of defending itself," said Geoffrey Levin, a professor at New York University. "America would counsel against sustained Israeli involvement because it could threaten the tacit alliance between America, Iran, Turkey, and several Arab states against ISIS."
ISIS has been known for launching surprise attacks and opening new battlefronts when it seems to be losing. ISIS also has been criticized by many Arabs and Muslims for not taking its fight to Israel and instead fighting fellow Arabs and Muslims. An attack aimed at Israel may boost ISIS's popularity in the Arab world and refresh its recruitment and funding efforts.
ISIS may feel that they are in a good position now to make such an attack. Some of ISIS's top military commanders were former officers in Saddam Hussein's army and have the tactical expertise to launch an attack in Israel. They may do this by following an well known strategy. They may resort to what Saddam Huessen did in the 1991 Gulf War when he attacked Israel with mid-range rockets, hoping to drag the Israelis into a conflict.
An Israeli retaliation in 1991 could have jeopardized the U.S-led coalition that then included Arab countries like Egypt, Syria and Saudi Arabia. The same is true now. However, Israel will probably not be as compliant as they were 20-plus years ago. With U.S. - Israeli relations at a low, Israel may choose an alternate, to some, radical way-to go their own way and let the United States sort out their own problems.
In any case, Attacks on Israel by ISIS or affiliated groups could further escalate the war in the region, or they could strain ties between the United States and the Israel to the breaking point.
Israel could launch a preemptive attack to destroy or significantly damage these ISIS-affiliated units whether by air or by ground forces. Israel used its advanced air force to launch attacks in Syria several times since the beginning of Syrian civil war in 2011.
In anticipation of an attack, Israel has recently boosted its defenses in the Golan Heights, saying its main concern was to prevent any major weapons transfer from Syria to Hezbollah, the jihadist group born from Israel's move against Lebanon 1980s.
A conflict between Israel and ISIS Jihadists in the Golan would turn a Israeli-Palestinian fight into a Jewish-Muslim war.
A national war would become a religious one.
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