Putin moves to boost ties with Tehran, sell missiles to Iran. Does this - and the deeply flawed proposed Iran nuclear deal - mean war is actually "more likely"? - Joel C. Rosenberg - https://flashtrafficblog.wordpress.com/2015/04/14/putin-moves-to-boost-ties-with-tehran-sell-missiles-to-iran-does-this-and-proposed-iran-deal-mean-war-is-actually-more-likely-heres-the-latest/
With U.S.-Israeli relations at arguably their lowest point in history, Russia's ties with Iran are suddenly growing much closer.
Vladimir Putin on Monday "cleared the way for the delivery of sophisticated air defense systems to Iran," and Iranian officials say the S-300 missile system could be "delivered his year."
This raises the disturbing question of whether the near-term deployment of an advanced Russian air defense system around Iran's most sensitive nuclear sites - combined with growing concerns by numerous experts that the nuclear deal set on the table by President Obama and the P5+1 will put Iran on the legal path to building nuclear weapons in the not-too-distant-future - could actually make war in the near term more likely, rather than less.
Is this the case? Let's hope not.
None of us wants to see a war between Iran and Israel (or the U.S. and Iran) unless absolutely necessary and only as a last possible resort. I certainly don't. Indeed, I wrote a trilogy of novels about an American President pressuring an Israeli Prime Minister not to launch a preemptive strike on Iran, only to have Israel do it any way, with grave and unexpected consequences.
Still, a number of experts in the region are suggesting war in the epicenter is suddenly becoming more likely. Consider the following articles:
*Washington Post op-ed (written by Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon): "Current Iran framework will make war more likely."
*Time magazine column: "Obama's Nuclear Deal Could Mean War."
*Los Angeles Times: Israelis warn of increased risk of "horrific war."
*Channel 7 news Israel: Israel Should 'Seriously Consider' Striking Iran, Expert Says
*CBN News: Egyptian Host to Israel: 'Put Trust in God and Bomb Iran'
*New York Post: Why Obama's Iran deal is a path to war
That said, I'm not worried. There's reason for concern, but not fear. The negotiating process is still underway. Nothing final has been decided. And the God of the Bible remains sovereign and in control.
Still, we are commanded to pray for the peace of Jerusalem, and now is a very good time to be faithful to that command. We are also commanded to love Israel as well as her neighbors and her enemies. We are commanded to strengthen our persecuted Christian brothers and sisters in the region, and strengthen and encourage the Church, and work together in love and unity to communicate the Good News of God's love and mercy to all the people of the region. What's more, we are to obey these commands with the hope we have in the Lord Jesus Christ who died, rose again and is coming back to reign from Jerusalem. Now is a very good time to be faithful to all these commands and the whole counsel of God in the Bible, as well.
I write these updates not to alarm you but to educate you and ultimately to encourage you. We are seeing Bible prophecies come to pass. We're also seeing the possibility of other prophecies to be fulfilled in the near future (i.e., the "War of Gog and Magog" described in Ezekiel 38-39; the destruction of Damascus as foretold in Isaiah 17 and Jeremiah 49; the judgment and revival of Iran foretold in Jeremiah 49; etc). Let us, therefore, live faithfully for the Lord in light of such Scriptures and geopolitical developments.
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The following are excerpts from the Los Angeles Times article on the Russian-Iranian deal:
*Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday cleared the way for delivery of sophisticated air defense systems to Iran with a decree that U.S. officials warned could disrupt the emerging deal to prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons.
*Kremlin officials cited the April 2 framework agreement between Iran and six world powers that is expected to prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons as grounds for proceeding with delivery of the S-300 missile systems, which could give Russia a jump on others in resuming trade with the long-isolated Islamic Republic....
*It was unclear whether Moscow was prepared to ship the missile systems any time soon, or what specific antiaircraft batteries might be involved. The S-300 has been out of production for five years, and the Russian output until 2010 involved an array of ranges and capabilities, analysts said, leaving it unclear whether Tehran could deter the kind of airstrikes that Israel has threatened if the nuclear deal falters and weapons production is suspected.
*Still, a senior Israeli official condemned the Russian announcement.
*This is a direct result of the legitimacy that Iran is obtaining from the deal being woven with it, and it is proof that the economic momentum in Iran that will come after the lifting of the sanctions will be exploited for arming and not for the welfare of the Iranian people," Intelligence Minister Yuval Steinitz said in a statement.
*Tehran's order for the S-300s was held up by then-President Dmitry Medvedev in 2010, in line with U.N. Security Council Resolution 1929, which banned supply to Iran of conventional weapons including missiles, tanks, attack helicopters, warplanes and ships.
*Putin's decree, which took immediate effect with his signature, ended Moscow's self-imposed restrictions on transport of the S-300 systems worth a total of $800 million, the Kremlin website said.
*By offering to resume arms sales to Iran, Putin has potentially positioned Russia for a head start over other nations in restoring trade links with Tehran. A deputy foreign minister recently told Russian lawmakers that an oil-for-goods barter deal with Iran also was in the works as a result of the perceived easing of the nuclear standoff between Tehran and the West.
Russia-Iran Missile Deal Major Threat to Middle East - by Yaakov Lappin - http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/5564/iran-s300-missiles
The impact that Russian S-300 missiles will have in the region is far wider than just on Israel and its neighbors.
Iran can use the system to harden air defenses around its multiple nuclear sites, making any potential future air attack significantly more difficult, and presenting Iran's threshold nuclear status as an almost invulnerable established fact. This, in turn, would allow Iran confidently to continue exporting arms and terrorism across the Middle East.
Russia is keen to capitalize on lifted sanctions to resume business with Iran. China also just agreed to build nuclear plants for Iran. Their decision looks like a sign of things to come
Middle East regional instability is set to worsen after Russia's lifting of its ban on the delivery of the advanced S-300 air defense missile system to Iran.
Russia's decision on April 13 to lift the ban is a highly dangerous development, which might well further destabilize the Middle East, and has serious potential to spark new conflicts.
The S-300 is one of the world's most advanced surface-to-air missile defense systems. Designed as a truck-mounted air defense battery, it can also be used as an offensive weapon, thanks to its long range and ability to track and strike many planes simultaneously.
If Russia follows through on its pledge to deliver the S-300 to Iran, the Iranians could then smuggle these sophisticated weapons into Syria, and from there, use a cross-border network to move the missiles on to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
From Lebanon, the S-300 missiles, which have a range of 125 miles, would not only pose a threat to vital Israel Air Force activity, but could also be used by Hezbollah to target civilian air traffic over Israel, triggering a devastating Israeli response.
In addition, Iran can be expected to try to smuggle the system to the Syrian Assad regime, as it has done with so many other types of weapons. Damascus, too, would in all likelihood use the S-300 to threaten Israeli aircraft over northern Israel.
Both the Assad regime and Hezbollah might also use the S-300 to try to challenge vital missions flown by the Israel Air Force, such as intelligence-gathering flights that help Israel keep an eye on the perpetual, threatening -- also Iranian-backed -- developments to its north.
It is reasonable to assume, however, that the Israel Air Force has already developed ways to overcome such threats.
The impact that Russian S-300 missiles will have in the region is far wider than just on Israel and its neighbors. Iran will doubtless be tempted to smuggle S-300 batteries, together with Iranian technicians and operators, to its Houthi clients in Yemen. The Shi'ite Houthis, also proxies of Iran, are currently unable to shoot down Saudi fighter jets engaged in an air campaign to stop the Shi'ite forces from taking over all of Yemen. Receiving the Russian-made surface-to-air missiles would change that.
Most critically, Iran can use the system to harden air defenses around its multiple nuclear sites, making any potential future air attack significantly more difficult.
Enhancing defenses around Iran's nuclear program has implications for global security as a whole, by making it easier for Iran to present its threshold nuclear status as an almost invulnerable established fact. This in turn would weaken the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, allow Iran confidently to continue exporting arms and terrorism across the Middle East, and allow Iran to build ballistic missiles that would place all of the Middle East, and large areas of Europe, in their range. If deployed on Iranian ships or submarines, Iranian ballistic missiles have the potential to reach even farther.
For the past five years, Russia has refrained from sending the S-300 system to Iran, due to Israeli and American pressure, as well as the biting sanctions that have been in place against the Islamic Republic.
Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, explaining that regional stability was at stake, lobbied Moscow intensively in 2010 to cancel a 2007 deal to supply the system to Iran. Russia, after sending mixed signals, eventually cancelled the deal.
Now, with a "framework" deal on Iran's nuclear program in place, and with the P5+1 countries working with Iran on a finalized deal by the end of June, Russia is keen to capitalize on lifting sanctions to resume business with Iran. China has also just agreed to build nuclear plants for Iran. Their decision looks like a sign of things to come.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is already active throughout the entire Middle East; it has been supplying Iranian proxies with more arms, training, and funds. This forward positioning, in turn, gives Iran the ability to remotely spark conflicts and destabilize the region.
As Russia's and China's decisions illustrate, lifting sanctions on Iran will only boost the IRGC's efforts to spread Iran's increasingly destructive influence.
Russia and Iran - http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Russia-and-Iran-398094
In January, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu traveled to Tehran to sign a major military cooperation deal with Iran that included renewed missile sales, increased military cooperation and provisions for joint training exercises.
The mullahs ruling Iran seemed to think their position in nuclear negotiations with the P5+1 nations (which include Russia) was strong enough, and the US was desperate enough, that they could be as provocative as they wanted to be without endangering the outcome of negotiations. They were right.
Now Russian President Vladimir Putin, who never misses an opportunity to thumb his nose at the US, has taken the next step and lifted the ban on the sale of S-300 rockets and air defense systems, originally imposed in 2010 by then-president Dmitry Medvedev.
Possession of the air defense systems - which in their more advanced technological versions have the ability to down not just aircraft, but also missiles, at a range of 150 km. - would further complicate a US or Israeli air strike on Iran's nuclear weapons program. Aircraft approaching Iran would come under attack at much greater distances than at present.
A senior Russian government official quoted in The Moscow Times said that Russia had started supplying grain, equipment and construction material to Iran in exchange for crude oil under a barter deal.
There are a number of lessons to be learned from this warming of Russo-Iranian relations, both for Israel and for the world. First, the Obama administration's "reset" policy with Russia has failed miserably. Back in 2010, when Medvedev put in place a five-year ban on S-300 sales to Iran, Obama administration officials attributed the Russian decision to successful US policy. Officials said they had explained to the Russians that the sale was "a red line that couldn't be crossed." So much for red lines.
Second, as Israel and other nations have warned, the framework agreement that Iran and the P5+1 nations (the US, the UK, France, Russia, China and Germany) reached in Lausanne has increased the legitimacy of conducting business and even arms sales with the Islamic Republic.
After witnessing Russia's disregard for the US's red lines, other nations will undoubtedly follow suit.
This seriously calls into question the ability to reinstate a sanctions regime if Iran is caught cheating. The term "snap back," used to describe how economic sanctions will go back in place should Iran violate the terms of the agreement, may sound, well, snappy. But will it be? There is a lesson in this for Israel as well: The Jewish state has little, if any, ability to influence Russia's foreign policy.
Israel hosts one of the largest Russian expat communities in the world, leading to close business and cultural ties between the two countries. Putin would probably never intentionally do anything to harm about one million Russian- speakers living in Israel.
Israel has even hurt relations with smaller countries in an attempt to improve relations with Moscow. Out of deference to Russia, Israel scaled back its arms sales to Georgia, a country that once viewed Israel as a model and an inspiration as a small nation that survived a struggle for statehood in the face of overwhelming hostility from its neighbors.
But none of these gestures and common interests have managed to deter Putin from improving his relations with Tehran.
Russia is hardly a superpower. Its economy is about the size of Italy's. Burdened by underdevelopment, racked with corruption, and weakened by a major brain-drain, Russia is an economic basket case. Once-inflated oil prices, which had been preventing the Russian economy from entering a free fall, have since plummeted.
In contrast, the US is a superpower, with the world's most innovative and vibrant economy and the largest military force. Ties between Israel and the US go beyond common foreign policy interests. They touch on deep, underlying values.
Many members of Congress, not just Republicans, have sharply criticized the Iran nuclear negotiations. They are debating legislation this week that could give them power to approve, amend or kill any deal with Tehran.
Let's hope that Russia's S-300 announcement convinces the still-undecided members of Congress that the Obama administration is in desperate need of congressional oversight.
Israel alarmed at news Russia to supply Iran advanced air defense system - http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-alarmed-at-news-russia-to-supply-iran-advanced-air-defense-system/
Deal for S-300 batteries was blocked in 2007 amid strong opposition from US and Israel; system could hamper strike on nuclear facilities
President Vladimir Putin on Monday lifted a ban on supplying Iran with sophisticated S-300 air defense missile systems, the Kremlin said, after Tehran struck a deal with the West over its nuclear program.
Israeli officials responded with dismay to the report, saying the supply, if it goes ahead, would change the balance of power in the region.
Israeli officials said supply of the system to Iran could prevent any military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, Channel 2 news reported. The TV report also cited unnamed American officials responding with concern to the news.
A decree signed by Putin removes a ban on "the shipment from Russia to Iran" of the S-300 missiles, the Kremlin said in a statement.
Russia signed a 2007 contract to sell Tehran the S-300 system, but the weaponry was never delivered amid strong objections by the United States and Israel.
Moscow blocked deliveries of the surface-to-air missiles to Tehran in 2010 after the United Nations slapped sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program barring hi-tech weapons sales.
Iran then filed a $4 billion suit against Moscow at an arbitration court in Geneva.
The decision to lift the delivery freeze comes after Tehran and international powers including Russia made a major breakthrough this month by agreeing an outline deal aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear program.
The Lausanne framework marked a crucial advance in a 12-year standoff between Iran and the West, which disputes Tehran's denial that it is seeking to build a nuclear bomb. However, Israeli officials, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have strongly condemned the deal for placing inadequate limitations on Iran's ability to research and produce nuclear weapons.
Global powers must resolve a series of difficult technical issues by a June 30 deadline for a final deal, including the steps for lifting global sanctions imposed on Iran, and lingering questions over the possible military dimensions of its nuclear program.
Iran's Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who will have the final say on any deal, has plunged the accord into doubt suggesting that "nothing is binding" while President Hassan Rouhani demanded that sanctions be immediately lifted when any deal is signed.
Global powers Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States have said sanctions will only be gradually eased and want a mechanism to ensure they can be swiftly imposed if Iran breaks its word.
Despite the dispute over the S-300 missiles, Moscow and Iran have remained on good terms, with Russia agreeing to build new nuclear reactors for Tehran and both sides supporting President Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
The S-300, developed by the Soviet Union in 1979, is a series of Russian long-range surface-to-air missile systems produced by NPO Almaz. The S-300 system was constructed for the Soviet Air Defense Forces in order to defend against aircraft and cruise missiles. Subsequent variations on the model were developed to intercept ballistic missiles.
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