Russian hands-off warning to US, Saudis, Turks amid crucial Aleppo battle - http://www.debka.com/article/25215/Russian-hands-off-warning-to-US-Saudis-Turks-amid-crucial-Aleppo-battle
The five-year Syrian civil war, faces its most critical moment. Saturday, Feb. 6, a combined force of Syrian army and Hezbollah troops and an Iraqi Shiite militia under Iranian officers, were led by Russian air and Spetsnaz (special forces) officers into pressing forward to encircle 35,000 rebels trapped in Aleppo, the country's largest city. As they tightened the siege, 400,000 Syrian civilians were also trapped and forced to bear heavy Russian air bombardment and savage artillery fire from the ground forces closing in on the city.
Rebel supply routes were cut off Thursday and Friday when Syrian and Hezbollah forces captured the Azaz Corridor connecting Aleppo and all of the northern province of Idlib to the Turkish border.
Tens of thousands of refugees fleeing from the beleaguered town are massing at Bab al-Salama, the last Turkish border crossing to be closed against them. This is the largest Syrian refugee exodus since the start of the civil war.
The rebels under siege are painfully short of weaponry for fighting off the massive, combined offensive, debkafile's military sources report. Their only remaining recourse is to surrender or be ground into submission as the conquering force knocks over their positions and takes over street after street.
Once the combined forces fighting with Bashar Assad's army take Aleppo and northern Syria, the opposition will have suffered its heaviest defeat since the war began. The rebels groups' capacity to continue fighting the regime will be gravely diminished.
Their desperate plight - and the fresh surge of Syrian refugees in unmanageable numbers - cut short the conference in Geneva for a settlement of the Syrian conflict, before it got underway - and prompted reactions from sponsors of rebel groups.
In Riyadh, Brig, Gen. Ahmed Asiri, adviser to Saudi Defense Minister Muhammed Bin Salman, announced Friday that Saudi Arabia is ready "to participate in any ground operations that the international coalition launches against ISIS." This offer was taken as a veiled response to the SOS from the rebel stronghold in Aleppo.
In Washington, State Department circles, in a briefing to US media, said the time had come to establish a no-fly security zone in northern Syria. They said: "Once a zone were established we do not believe Russia would challenge the stronger US and NATO forces, particularly if they were operating mainly from Turkey."
The next day, Friday, Moscow came back with a sharp response: Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov said: "Russian air defense systems enable early detection of threats to Russian aircraft flying combat missions over Syria and provide adequate measures to ensure flight safety."
This was a reminder of the sophisticated air defense S-400 and S-300 missile systems Russia installed at its Syrian air base after the Turkish air force downed a Russian warplane in November.
Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem put it more crudely: "Any foreign troops entering Syria would return home in wooden coffins."
He advised armed opposition groups fighting the government offensive in the area to lay down their weapons because, he said, "government advances signal that the five-year-old Syria war is nearing its end."
Saturday, US Secretary of State John Kerry urged Russia to implement a ceasefire in Syria, saying its bombing campaign was killing women and children in large numbers and "has to stop." He told reporters on his return from a trip to Europe: "Russia has indicated to me very directly they are prepared to do a ceasefire," adding "The Iranians confirmed in London just a day and a half ago they will support a ceasefire now."
debkafile's military sources have seen no sign of any ceasefire or even a slowdown in the Russian-led Syrian-Iranian Aleppo offensive.
Russian troops put on high alert as part of massive drills - Vladimir Isachenkov - http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_RUSSIA_MILITARY_DRILLS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-02-08-09-31-07
President Vladimir Putin has scrambled thousands of troops and hundreds of warplanes across southwestern Russia for large-scale military drills intended to test the troops' readiness amid continuing tensions with the West.
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that military units were put on combat alert early Monday, marking the launch of the exercise that involves troops of the Southern Military District
The district includes troops stationed in Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014, as well as forces in the North Caucasus and southwestern regions near the border with Ukraine.
Shoigu said the maneuvers will also engage airborne troops and military transport aviation, as well as the navy. He noted that the drills are intended to check the troops' ability to respond to extremist threats and other challenges.
According to Shoigu, who spoke at a meeting with the top military brass, the war games would include redeployment of air force units to advance air bases and bombing runs at shooting ranges. The maneuvers will test the troops' mobility, with some being deployed to areas up to 3,000 kilometers (1,860 miles) away, the military said.
Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov said in a statement that up to 8,500 troops, 900 ground weapons, 200 warplanes and about 50 warships will be involved in the drills.
The exercises are the latest in a series of major drills intended to strengthen the military's readiness. They have continued despite the nation's economic downturn.
Even though a drop in global oil prices has drained the government's coffers and helped drive the economy into recessions, the Kremlin has continued to spend big on the military, funding the purchase of hundreds of new aircraft, tanks and missiles.
Russia has demonstrated its resurgent military might with its air campaign in Syria, which helped President Bashar Assad's military win a series of victories in recent weeks. The military used the Syrian operation to test new types of weapons in actual combat for the first time, including long-range air- and sea-launched cruise missiles.
The air blitz in Syria has badly strained Russia's relations with Turkey, which shot down a Russian warplane at the border with Syria in November. The latest drills could be part of muscle flexing amid the tensions with Ankara.
They also come at a time when a peace deal intended to end fighting between Ukrainian government troops and Russia-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine appears to be in jeopardy amid increasingly frequent clashes in recent weeks.
Turkey's rising tension with Russia over Kurds puts Erdogan in a corner - Simon Tisdall - http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/09/ever-heightening-tension-putin-puts-turkey-in-a-corner
Syrian Kurdish party opening a Moscow office marks new nadir in relations, and could lead to Turkish forces crossing border
Escalating tension between Russia and Turkey will reach a new high when the Democratic Union party (PYD), the leading Kurdish political organization in north-eastern Syria, which Ankara regards as a terrorist group, opens a representative office in Moscow on Wednesday at Vladimir Putin's personal invitation.
The development comes amid a dangerous tug-of-war between Russia and the US for power and influence in strategic areas along the Turkey-Syria border. Washington backs the Syrian Kurds in fighting Islamic State (Isis) jihadis. Moscow's priority is to thwart western-backed efforts to topple Bashar al-Assad's Syrian regime.
Turkey is caught in the middle. Its biggest fear is that the PYD could establish autonomous control over large areas of northern Syria, linking up with independent Iraqi Kurdistan and encouraging Turkey's alienated ethnic Kurdish population to follow suit.
"Our ambition is to rally support behind our Kurdish enclave in Syria through this office," said Abdulsalam Ali, the Syrian Kurdish envoy to Moscow who is a member of the PYD.
Ankara says the PYD is in league with the Kurdistan Workers' party (PKK), a long-time foe that its security forces are currently battling in urban areas of south-east Turkey. Like Turkey, the US deems the PKK a terrorist organization, but it does not extend the definition to the PYD. Moscow recognizes both the PKK and PYD as legitimate actors.
Wednesday's opening ceremony in Moscow, which is expected to be attended by Russian foreign ministry officials, is seen by Turkish politicians and analysts as a deliberate provocation and part of a wider bid to expand Russian regional influence.
In Turkish eyes, the move stems from a Putin vendetta that began last November after a Russian warplane entered Turkish airspace from Syria and was shot down. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's president, rejected Putin's demand for an apology and compensation and has called on Nato for support. On Monday, Putin said he would not back down.
Turkey has come under additional pressure in recent days as Russian military backing for Assad's forces has tipped the balance against rebel forces around Aleppo and sent tens of thousands of additional Syrian refugees to its border. This in turn has led to more pressure on Ankara from European states and aid organizations.
Russian forces have also stepped up attacks on Syria's Turkmen minority, whose fighters killed one of the pilots of the downed Russian bomber and have allegedly given military assistance to the PYD's military wing, the People's Protection Units (YPG) - a claim largely denied by Moscow.
Russian officials, meanwhile, publicly blame Turkey for contributing to last week's failure to advance Syrian peace talks in Geneva, after Erdogan vetoed PYD participation. Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, warned last month that the talks would collapse if the Kurds were excluded.
An exasperated Erdogan replied that peace talks were pointless while Russia continued to kill people in Syria. "In an environment where children are still being killed, such attempts do not have any function apart from making things easier for the tyrant [Assad]," Erdogan said. Independent estimates suggest 1,400 civilians have been killed by Russian military action since October.
Erdogan, penned in on all sides, has also directed his wrath at the US after a senior US official met YPG leaders in Kobani, Syria, last week, apparently to offer reassurance after their exclusion from Geneva. The delegation included Brett McGurk, US special envoy on Isis.
"He [McGurk] visits Kobani at the time of the Geneva talks and is awarded a plaque by a so-called YPG general? How can we trust you [the US]? Is it me who is your partner or the terrorists in Kobani?" Erdogan demanded. Last June, the Turkish president vowed that he would never allow a Kurdish state in northern Syria. To him, McGurk's visit must have suggested tentative US recognition of just such an entity.
Visiting Turkey last month, Joe Biden, the US vice-president, was shown a border map that identified several places where Turkish officials claimed Syrian Kurdish fighters have been diverting US-made weapons and ammunition intended for use against Isis to the PKK. Biden was reportedly told the arms smuggling was unacceptable and that Turkey was prepared to bomb Washington's allies in Syria if it continued.
Similar speculative reports about intensified Turkish military action, including intervention on the ground, in Kurdish areas of northern Syria have surfaced in Turkish media. For its part, Russia insisted last week that renewed Turkish accusations of airspace violations were cover for Ankara's threatening military plans.
"The Russian defense ministry has registered a growing number of signs of hidden preparation by the Turkish armed forces for action in Syrian territory," a ministry spokesman, Igor Konashenkov, said. Turkish forces have frequently intervened in the past in Kurdish areas of northern Iraq and have taken very limited action in Syria.
A big, new military operation against Kurdish strongholds, in defiance of both Russia and the US, would be a sign of Erdogan's desperation, marking a potentially catastrophic spreading of the Syrian conflict.
Ignoring Obama, Iran upgrades its nuclear-capable Emad missile - By Ari Yashar - http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/207825#.Vry9-zbSkaG
Flaunting sanctions, Iran's DM says update of nuclear rockets able to hit Israel coming soon, Russian S-300 delivery in next 2 months.
In open defiance of recent US sanctions on Iran's ballistic missile program, Iranian Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan on late Tuesday told local media that Tehran will soon be rolling out an upgrade of its nuclear-capable medium-range Emad missiles.
The "next generation of Emad with improved precision" will be unveiled in the next Iranian year which starts on March 20, Dehghan said as cited by the semi-official Fars News Agency.
Emad is said to have a 1,700 kilometer range, putting Israel and much of eastern Europe squarely in its sights.
"The missile is being mass-produced but its precision-striking power will improve and its second version will be unveiled next year," Dehghan added. He went on to claim the missile was not a violation of the nuclear deal or UN sanctions because "we will never use a nuclear warhead (on it)."
In light of an Iranian Emad test on October 10, in breach of UN sanctions, US President Barack Obama's administration in January announced it was leveling sanctions on Iran's missile program - sanctions which Iran promptly vowed to defy. Iran in January publicly revealed its 14 underground "missile towns," with the latest facility being shown on Iranian media as convoys of the nuclear-capable Emad missiles were transferred in.
Dehghan also announced that Iran is to receive the Russian S-300 air defense system within the next two months, a troubling development given the advanced system's ability to shoot down missiles as well as jets.
The delivery has been blocked under Western pressure since 2010, given that it is in breach of UN sanctions. But now in the wake of the controversial nuclear deal Moscow is set to deliver the advanced missile system.
According to the Iranian defense minister Tehran and Moscow are also engaged in negotiations on a sale of the Russian Sukhoi-30 fighter jets.
"We have even decided on the number of Sukhoi-30 fighter jets that we want to buy," said Dehghan.
In a last announcement, he said Iran has designed and is testing a new tank called the "Karrar," which he claimed is on par with the Russian T-90. The new tank comes after plans to buy the Russian tank were canceled, according to Dehghan because Iran now has the capabilities to build a similar tank on its own.
"The defense industry designed and built the new battle tank from scratch. If not better, it's still as deadly as the Russian T-90," he claimed.
Following the controversial nuclear deal last July, Iran has shown an openly hostile stance to the US and continued to press its military development.
Critics of the nuclear deal note that Iran will be allowed to inspect its own covert nuclear sites such as Parchin, and likewise the leading state sponsor of terror can simply wait for the limitations on its nuclear program to expire under the deal in 15 years and then build a nuclear weapon.
US Secretary of State John Kerry in January admitted that part of the roughly $150 billion nuclear sanction windfall received by Iran will go to terror.
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