Russian-Turkish clash building up over Syria - http://www.debka.com/article/25231/Russian-Turkish-clash-building-up-over-Syria
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan clearly took a calculated risk when he ordered a two-our cross-border artillery bombardment Saturday, Feb. 13 of Syrian army forces positioned around the northern Syrian town of Azaz and the Kurdish YPG militia units which two days earlier took control of the former Syrian military air base of Minagh some six kilometers from the Turkish border.
Kurdish troops backed by the Russian air force seized that base last week from rebel militias as part of the operation for cutting the rebel groups under siege in Aleppo from their supply routes. The Turkish bombardment was therefore an indirect attack on the Russian forces backing pro-Assad forces against the rebels in the Syria war.
Erdogan knows that Moscow hasn't finished settling accounts with Turkey for the shooting down of a Russian Su-24 on Nov. 24 and is spoiling for more punishment. After that incident, the Russians deployed top-of-line S-400 ground-to-air missile batteries and advanced Sukhoi Su-35 warplanes to their base in Latakia near the Turkish border. Ankara therefore limited its strike to a two-hour artillery bombardment from Turkish soil, reasoning that a Turkish warplane anywhere near the Syrian border would be shot down instantly.
Emboldened by the delay in the Russian response, the Turks took another step: Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu threatened the Kurdish YPG militia with more attacks if they failed to withdraw from the Menagh air base.
Although the Turkish prime minister had called on "allies and supporters" to back the operation against the Russian-backed Syrian Kurds, Washington took the opposite line by urging Turkey, a fellow member of NATO, to desist from any further attacks.
Washington's concern is obvious. An outright clash between Turkey and Russia would entitle Ankara to invoke the NATO charter and demand allied protection for a member state under attack.
The Obama administration would have had to spurn this appeal for three reasons:
1. To avoid getting mixed up in a military clash between two countries, just as the US kept its powder dry in the Russian-Ukraine confrontation after Moscow's annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in February 2014.
2. To avoid upsetting the secret Obama-Putin deal on the allocation of spheres of influence in Syria: the Americans have taken the regions east of the Euphrates River, and the Russians, the west.
The Kurdish YPG militia forces near Aleppo and the city itself come under the Russian area of influence.
3. Regional tensions were tightened another notch Saturday by Russian comments: Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said that his country and the West have "slid into a new Cold War period," and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said a third World War is actually underway -"I call this struggle a third World War by other means.," he said.
Washington will avoid any action that risks further stoking this high state of international tension, but will act instead to de-escalate the cross-border Turkish-Russian confrontation over Syria.
All eyes are now on Moscow, Much depends on Russia's response to the artillery bombardment of its Syrian and Kurdish allies. It is up to Putin to decide when and how to strike back - if at all.
Russia and Saudi Arabia on course to collision in Syria - By Avi Issacharoff - http://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-and-saudi-arabia-on-course-to-collision-in-syria/
As America fades from the scene and Assad's army gains ground, Ankara and especially Riyadh may rise to the challenge
For the Saudis, the prospect of the Iranian-Russian axis taking over Syria and Lebanon is one step too far
Russia does not stop. Reports in Arabic media on Saturday evening told the story of a stream of thousands of refugees that won't subside, all fleeing the northwestern areas of Syria toward the Turkish border. They are escaping a ground offensive by the Syrian army, assisted by Russian carpet bombings against Aleppo and the villages of Latakia and near Homs.
According to reports from Russia, the Syrian army has succeeded in taking control of some villages in northern Latakia, a region in the western part of Syria. Bashar Assad's army has also conquered areas north of Aleppo; on Friday, his army claimed to have taken over villages controlling several strategic roads near the Turkish border.
As a Hebrew saying goes, the appetite is whetted when the food is served. An emboldened Assad even gave an interview on Friday to Agence France Presse, vowing not to cease fighting until he retakes control of the entire nation. While this would have sounded like science fiction only a few months ago, now, with the help of Russian bombers, it no longer seems a fantasy.
Such a scenario may take months or even years to unfold, but the progress of the Syrian army, backed by Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, is quite consistent - at least on the northwestern front.
If Assad and his Iranian and Russian allies succeed in taking over "Alawistan," they are likely to turn eastward to Idlib and then southward to the Golan Heights. Only after this "cleanup" is the Alawite axis likely to try to tackle Islamic State in the eastern part of the country.
Thus, the Russian strategy to defeat Islamic State reveals itself: Firstly, to defeat everything that is not IS and opposes Assad, mainly in the northwestern part of Syria. And then to take on IS.
The Russians, as they are wont to do, take no prisoners. They are not even pretending to avoid harming civilians. On the contrary: Everything that moves and is in territories controlled by non-IS opposition forces is a legitimate target, be it hospitals, schools - the lot.
And what, meanwhile, are the Americans and Europeans doing? Blabbering about a ceasefire, which will not include a cessation of bombardments of "terror groups" or the fight against IS and Nusra Front, thus in fact enabling the continued slaughter of innocent civilians.
One can guess how proceedings at the UN Security Council would look if Israel bombed a village in Gaza or the West Bank, even by mistake. In Syria, even when bombardments are deliberate, most of the world shows a powerlessness and utter lack of will to confront Moscow.
Those standing out as exceptions in this respect are Saudi Arabia and Turkey, mainly the former. On Friday, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu revealed that Saudi Arabia was dispatching jets to a base in eastern Turkey and that the two countries were preparing to launch a ground invasion of Syria in order to fight Islamic State.
Cavusoglu told a local paper that Saudi military officials had arrived at the base and examined the territory. "Saudi Arabia announced its determination to fight Islamic State and said it is willing to send jets and ground troops," Cavusoglu said.
Still, he acknowledged that no real plans for a ground invasion existed at this stage. "In every meeting of the coalition countries fighting Islamic State, we always emphasized the need for a result-oriented strategy in the struggle against this extremist organization," the minister explained. "If we have such a strategy, Turkey and Saudi Arabia may launch a ground incursion."
On the other hand, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir has indicated more than once that a Saudi ground incursion in Syria is inevitable. Jubeir told a German paper over the weekend that Assad will not be part of Syria's future and that "the Russian military intervention will not help him stay in power."
Jubeir's comments paint in stark relief Riyadh's disagreement with the confused, stuttering policy of the White House in all matters Syrian. Saudi Arabia sees America's impotence; it sees America's attempt to ignore the fact that the Russians may well defeat Assad's moderate opponents. And it looks like Riyadh has decided not to lean on the Americans any longer. For the Saudis, the prospect of the Iranian-Russian axis taking over Syria and Lebanon is one step too far.
Saudi-Russian dogfights until recently seemed like an impossible scenario. But in today's Middle East, and especially in Syria, this too may come to pass, as America fades from the region.
Moscow's alliance with Iran and Hezbollah threatens strategic Israeli interests - http://www.jpost.com/Jerusalem-Report/Russias-Syria-gambit-442256
The main beneficiary of the Russian intervention in Syria has been Iran.
GOVERNMENTS AND pundits were stunned last September when Russia sent an expeditionary force into Syria.
The immediate goal seemed to be to safeguard the survival of the beleaguered Bashar Assad regime and Russian naval assets in the port of Tartus. But it soon became clear that Russian President Vladimir Putin had other major strategic goals.
On the face of it, Putin was challenging Western sanctions and NATO military moves after Russia's occupation of Crimea and its military support for the pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine. But Russia's interest in Syria goes much deeper. It is driven by a burning desire to reinstate its Middle Eastern presence and influence, after an absence of three decades, and the great power status it lost with the crumbling of the Soviet empire.
Moreover, after Islamic State spokesman Abu Muhammad al-Adnani declared the creation of a new province, in the North Caucasus in June 2015, Russia shifted its threat assessment from the Caucasus emirate to IS militants in the region. Moscow's Interior Ministry and the Federal Security Service have been monitoring over 2,800 Russian citizens who left to fight alongside IS in Syria and Iraq, and the Russian government is deeply concerned over IS influence among Russia's 20 million Muslims.
Putin exploited American weakness on Syria and European confusion over the massive wave of refugees from the region.
US President Barack Obama appeared to be caught off guard by the bold Russian move. His administration responded with contradictory steps, criticizing the Russian attacks against moderate pro- Western rebels, while coordinating "deconflicting" talks with Moscow to avoid accidental clashes between the Russian and US militaries.
The Russian intervention in Syria was planned months before the signing of the P+5 nuclear deal with Iran. The Iranians, despite a major military effort, failed to stop the advance of the Syrian opposition forces. Indeed, Tehran was probably the regional architect of the Russian move, coordinating the positions of its allies, Hezbollah and the Shi'ite government in Baghdad. As early as September 2014, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah said Russia had been calling "for months for a new coalition to fight against Islamic State, which would include Syria, Iraq and Iran."
Although Russia has a direct long-term interest in destroying the IS caliphate and neutralizing the threat of thousands of Chechens and other North Caucasians fighting in its ranks, the Russian bombings are targeting mainly the less radical Islamists and the more moderate opposition.
A late December airstrike in Eastern Ghouta killed Salafist leader Zahran Alloush, the commander of Jaysh al- Islam, the largest armed opposition group.
This could result in further instability inside rebel-held areas and sabotage the upcoming UN negotiations for a solution to the Syrian civil war. By its actions, Russia is endangering the interests of the main sponsors of the Syrian opposition forces: Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other Sunni states. The Russian intervention comes at a price.
Turkey's reaction, on both the rhetorical and military levels, was swift. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu reiterated Ankara's opposition to any political transition in Syria that includes Russia's ally Assad. Several cases of Russian fighters penetrating Turkish territory, Russian bombings of pro-Turkish Turkmen tribesmen in northern Syria and Russia's flirting with the Syrian Kurds led to the downing in late November of a Russian warplane that violated Turkish airspace, the first time a NATO country has shot down a Russian plane since the Korean War.
The Saudis have also taken a strong stand. Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir threatened his country would embrace a military option if Assad did not step down as part of a political transition. In early December, Saudi Arabia organized a gathering in Riyadh of most of the Syrian opposition groups who agreed to form "a new and more inclusive body to guide the diverse and divided opponents of President Assad in a new round of planned talks aimed at ending the Syrian civil war." A few days later the Saudis announced the formation of a 34-state "Islamic military coalition" - excluding Shi'ite nations - to fight global terrorism and challenge the Russian-Iranian alliance.
And after dozens of Islamist Saudi clerics called on Arab and Muslim countries to "give all moral, material, political and military" support to jihad against Syria's government and its Iranian and Russian backers, the Sunni Islamist rebel group Ahrar Al-Sham issued a joint statement with 40 other rebel groups calling for a "regional coalition" against Russia and Iran.
Indeed, Turkey and the Gulf states may match Russian intervention by stepping up their own assistance to the rebels, for example by providing anti-aircraft missiles and putting Russian planes deployed in Syria at risk.
As for IS, it challenged Moscow's military intervention by bombing a Russian Metrojet flight through its Wilayat Sinai associate in late October, killing 224 people. More attacks could come in Syria, the region or even on Russian soil.
THE MAIN beneficiary of the Russian intervention in Syria has been Iran. Arab observers maintain that in any future deal, Iran will keep at least most of western Syria under its control.
The legitimacy gained by Tehran following the signing of the nuclear deal has made it possible for Russia to rapidly advance their common strategic, political and economic interests. During his late November visit to Tehran, Putin eased an export ban on nuclear equipment and technology, promised to help Iran modernize its Arak heavy water reactor and agreed to build up to eight new nuclear power reactors. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called for "closer interaction" with Russia to counter the US in the Middle East.
Israel has so far been able to mitigate the negative impact of the Russian presence in Syria. In his late September visit to Moscow, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu achieved an understanding for cooperation in de-conflicting the two air forces' activities in the region. The Israeli approach seems to be "live and let live," acknowledging Russia as a major player that "cannot be ignored."
The Israel Air Force continues to enforce Israel's red lines: Bombing transfers of strategic weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon (for example, long range ground-to-ground or anti-aircraft missiles), including in the sensitive area of the Qalamoun Mountains, and preventing Iranian/Hezbollah attempts to build a strategic platform near the Golan border.
The reported IAF mid-December air strike, which killed senior Hezbollah Druze operative Samir Kuntar, brought down a multistory building near Damascus, housing an operation room of the so called "National Syrian Opposition in the Golan" group, which is sponsored by Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's Quds Force.
Interestingly, however, the Kremlin did not voice any displeasure at the strike and, three days later, Putin and Netanyahu spoke on the phone and agreed to continue their dialogue and cooperation on the war against terror and other regional matters.
For their part, Russian jets did not refrain from targeting rebel forces in important locations in southern Syria, less than 20 kilometers from the Israeli border. Indeed, according to Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon, they even "occasionally" crossed into Israeli airspace.
The Russian intervention has already produced important strategic effects in the region.
As a result of its alienation from Moscow, Turkey is aligning more closely with NATO and Saudi Arabia. The Turkish-Russian crisis has also compelled President Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan to strive to improve political and economic relations with Israel and possibly with Egypt too.
Saudi Arabia has deliberately provoked a dangerous crisis with Iran and regional escalation by executing a prominent Saudi Shi'ite cleric, Nimr al-Nimr. The heightened tension has raised serious doubts concerning the UN diplomatic initiative, supported by Russia and the US, to end the war in Syria.
After the Russian intervention, the US decided to escalate its campaign against the Islamic State by stepping up its airstrikes in support of Kurdish and Arab fighters, and engaging in some level of ground commando operations.
It is still unclear whether Russia has a plan on how its adventure in Syria might end and whether its new military assets on the ground, like the modern fighters and S-400 anti-aircraft missiles, will remain there.
Given this backdrop, it seems the longer the Russian military campaign in the region lasts, the stronger Moscow's alliance with Iran, Hezbollah and possibly Iraq will become. This alliance threatens strategic Israeli interests with regard to Iran and Hezbollah.
The deep Russian military involvement in Syria is slowly leading to a de facto restructuring of regional alliances, putting US and Western influence in the Middle East and beyond at risk and creating new scenarios for potential clashes with the Russians.
Israeli missile attack reported on Syrian army outposts on the Damascus-Daraa road - http://www.debka.com/article/25238/Israeli-missile-attack-reported-on-Syrian-army-outposts-on-the-Damascus-Daraa-road
Israel-Syrian border tensions have soared in the five days since Russia and Syria stepped up their air strikes over rebel positions in southern Syria, drawing ever closer to the Israeli border. The raids are covering a wide radius from the town of Daraa on the Jordanian border up to Quneitra on the Golan. How to react if those raids actually reach the two borders is no doubt a burning topic at General Staff HQ in Tel Aviv and Amman. Neither army wants a head-on collision close to their borders with the coalition of Russian, Syria, Iranian and Hezbollah forces. However, the intensified air raids are putting large numbers of Syrian refugees to flight from their homes towards the Israeli and Jordanian borders. The Jordanian border area is in chaos. The kingdom's army has seized the positions formerly held by Syrian rebel units to hold back the influx of refugees into Jordan. The rebels are dropping their weapons and fleeing in all directions in disarray.
Israel has ordered a blackout on news from Ein Zivan, its border crossing at the Golan town of Quneitra.
Wednesday, Feb. 17, as debkafile reported exclusively earlier, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu sent Dore Gold, Director General of the Foreign Ministry to Moscow in search of answers about Russian intentions regarding the Israeli border district.
By Wednesday night, no answers were forthcoming.
This is not surprising. When the Jordanian Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Mashal Al-Zaben was sent on a similar errand to Moscow a few days ago, he was given the runaround, told that, since the Syrian chief of staff happened to be in the Russian capital "by chance," and since he is in charge of military operations in the border region, why not talk to him?
In fact, the Russians had deliberately flown him over from Syria.
On the assumption that Dr. Gold would fare no better than the Jordanian general, Israel may have taken matters into its own hands.
Three Israeli missiles reportedly struck Syrian military outposts on the road between Daraa and Damascus after Wednesday midnight, according to Syrian human rights monitors. The IDF declined to comment on this report, while the Syrian army and Hezbollah denied it.
If this report is true, it would mean that Israel's patience is running out with the Russian-Syrian aerial campaign that threatens to open the door for Syrian, Iranian and Hizballah forces to take up positions on its northern border. The triple missile strike looks as though it was meant to draw a line in the sand against this happening.
Turkey Is Asking the United States to Take Part in A Ground Invasion of Syria - By Michael Snyder -
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/turkey-is-asking-the-united-states-to-take-part-in-a-ground-invasion-of-syria
Reuters is reporting that Turkey is asking the United States and other western allies to participate in a massive ground invasion of Syria. But of course the Turks are not exactly sitting around and waiting for their western allies to get on board. Turkey shelled northern Syria for a fourth consecutive day on Tuesday, even though the Obama administration has been asking them to stop. The targets were Kurdish and Syrian military positions, and the goal appears to be to slow down their advance toward the Turkish border. The Sunni militants that Turkey has been supporting for five years are now being completely routed, and Turkey is in a great deal of panic about this.
I knew that Turkey was trying to round up support for overt military action, but I was stunned when I came across a mainstream news report today that publicly admitted that Turkey is asking the Obama administration to be part of a full-fledged ground invasion of Syria...
Turkey is asking allies including the United States to take part in a joint ground operation in Syria, as a Moscow-backed government advance nears its borders, raising the possibility of direct confrontation between the NATO member and Russia.
We don't have to wonder if Turkey wants an invasion of Syria anymore.
They are now coming out and openly saying it.
Just consider what Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told Reuters...
"Some countries like us, Saudi Arabia and some other Western European countries have said that a ground operation is necessary," Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told Reuters in an interview.
However, this kind of action could not be left to regional powers alone. "To expect this only from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar is neither right nor realistic. If such an operation is to take place, it has to be carried out jointly, like the (coalition) air strikes," he said.
Obviously Turkey would like the United States to take the lead role. A full-blown ground invasion of Syria is a very risky thing, and it could easily spark World War 3.
So even though Turkey is chomping at the bit, they are hesitant to go it alone because they realize what the consequences could be.
The Saudis also seem hesitant to go ahead without the United States. This is what Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir told reporters during a news conference in Riyadh...
"The Kingdom's readiness to provide special forces to any ground operations in Syria is linked to a decision to have a ground component to this coalition against Daesh in Syria - this US-led coalition - so the timing is not up to us," al-Jubeir told a news conference in Riyadh, adding, "With regards to timing of the mission or size of troops, this has yet to be worked out."
But without a doubt, preparations for war continue.
As I reported the other day, troops from 20 different nations are gathering in northern Saudi Arabia for the largest military exercise in the history of the Middle East. This military exercise has been dubbed "Northern Thunder", and some international news sources have reported that it will involve 350,000 soldiers, 20,000 tanks, 2,450 warplanes and 460 military helicopters. Other reports put the number of troops closer to 150,000.
But in any event, that is a very large gathering of military forces, and many have speculated that this could constitute the main invasion force.
Of course there are two major problems. The path from Saudi Arabia to Syria is blocked by Iraq and Jordan.
In recent days Iraq has deployed troops to its border with Saudi Arabia in order to keep an eye on these "military exercises"...
Iraq has deployed "large" military forces at the border with Saudi Arabia to oversee the ongoing military training conducted by the kingdom, member of the parliamentary security and defense committee Adnan al-Asadi told the Iraqi news agency INA.
The large-scale military exercises started on Tuesday, with the participation of ground forces from Egypt, Sudan, Jordan and several other Arab states, the members of the Riyadh's antiterrorist coalition.
So it appears that the path through Iraq is blocked.
But what about Jordan?
After all, they are participating in "Northern Thunder", so passing through Jordanian territory would seem to make the most sense.
Unfortunately for the Saudis, the Jordanians are not inclined to participate in any invasion unless the Americans and the British lead the way...
A Jordanian official confirmed that the country will not participate in any Turkish- or Arab-led Syrian invasion unless mandated by the United Nations, led by western forces and coordinated with Russia.
"Jordan is not going to send ground forces into Syria unless these troops are led by Americans and British," the Jordanian official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. "We have very long borders with Iraq and Syria which are more than 550 kilometers. Any ground troops including Jordanian forces should be sent after a UN approval and after full coordination with Russia."
For now, it appears that if there is going to be a ground invasion of Syria, that it is most likely to come from the north. According to Russia Insider, the Saudis and the Turks have established a join operations center, and both the Saudis and the UAE have sent military aircraft to Turkey...
According to reports (not in English, but we will try to dig up a proper translation as soon as possible), Saudi Arabia has created an operations room with Turkey, in preparation for a joint assault on Syria. The report also claims that military planes from the United Arab Emirates are now stationed at Incirlik airbase in Turkey - the same base where Saudi jets were recently deployed.
The report, which hasn't been independently verified, is consistent with the Saudis' openess about a possible invasion, as well as Turkey's warning that escalation is imminent. And it's not all talk. Turkey has already begun attacking.
Turkey has indeed already started attacking. They have been shelling Syria for four days in a row, and nobody is making them stop.
But a full-blown ground invasion is another thing altogether.
So will Turkey and Saudi Arabia go ahead, or will they chicken out because the U.S. does not want to be involved?
We will just have to wait and see what happens over the next few weeks...
Special Israeli emissary to Moscow over Russian Syria air strikes near border - http://www.debka.com/article/25236/Special-Israeli-emissary-to-Moscow-over-Russian-Syria-air-strikes-near-border
In view of the crisis building up on the southern Syrian-Israeli border, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu decided immediately on his return home from Berlin early Wednesday, Feb. 17, to send a special emissary to Moscow to ask for clarifications. Tuesday, Intensified Russian air strikes came to within 6 km of the Israeli border, sparking a growing exodus of Syrian refugees heading towards the Qoneitra border crossing to Israel.
debkafile's sources reveal that the envoy is Dr. Dore Gold, director-general of the Foreign Ministry and one of the prime minister's few trusted confidantes.
It was still not clear whom Gold will meet in the Russian capital, but it is assumed that it will be one of Moscow's senior decision-makers in the loop on its military operation in Syria.
The fact that Netanyahu decided to dispatch a top diplomat rather than a senior military or intelligence officer is a sign that the prime minister is not of one mind with the IDF's intelligence assessments of the situation on the ground.
Netanyahu's concerns grew after the Russian air force on Tuesday widened its massive bombing of southern Syria from the city of Daraa to the Golan town of Quneitra, in order to help the Syria army's 7th armored division push the rebels east, so they will not attempt to cross the border and seek shelter in Israel.
debkafile's military sources report that that 12 of the 15 targets bombed by the Russian air force across from the Israeli border were new rebel positions that had not been attacked before, even by the Syrian army. Military sources monitoring the war said Tuesday night that there is no doubt that the Russians are in the process of wiping out the rebel positions along the Israeli border by means of an offensive comparable to their operations in the northern Aleppo sector.
Our sources report that Israel's concerns grew when, as the Russians bombing raids neared the Israeli border, Syrian officials threatened Jordan with serious consequences if Amman gave the Saudi air force a base for attacking eastern or southern Syria.
The threats began Tuesday, after Jordanian forces took over the Syrian-Jordanian border crossings formerly held by Syrian rebels, as a measure to stem the volume of Syrian refugees in search of sanctuary in the Hashemite Kingdom. But this step was interpreted by the Syrians and their Russian ally as clearing the way for Saudi intervention in the Syrian conflict using Jordan as a jumping-off base.
Meanwhile, Western military sources reported a sub substantial presence Tuesday of both Russian and Israeli warplanes in the skies over and around southern Syria.
Hezbollah Threatens It Can Hit Israel with a Low-Tech Weapon That Will Pack the Punch of a Nuclear Bomb - Sharona Schwartz - http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2016/02/17/hezbollah-threatens-it-can-hit-israel-with-a-low-tech-weapon-that-will-pack-the-punch-of-a-nuclear-bomb/
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has threatened to attack an ammonia storage facility in northern Israel, a move he said would pack the punch of a nuclear weapon, resulting in hundreds of thousands of fatalities.
"This would be exactly as a nuclear bomb, and we can say that Lebanon today has a nuclear bomb, seeing as any rocket that might hit these tanks is capable of creating a nuclear bomb effect," Nasrallah said, according to a translation published in the Times of Israel.
Addressing his message to Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, Nasrallah said, according to quotes posted by Ynet, "It's simple mathematics. A few missiles on a few ammonium plants equals the same amount of death as an atomic bomb."
Israel's military chief Eizenkot on Wednesday responded to Nasrallah's threat, acknowledging that among the groups surrounding Israel, Hezbollah has developed the most significant military abilities, including developing the means to hit Tel Aviv in central Israel.
Though it is a formidable adversary, Eizenkot noted that the Lebanon border has been Israel's quietest for the past 10 years since the 2006 conflict known as the Second Lebanon War.
Ynet reported that following the 2006 conflict, the municipality of Haifa - where the ammonia facility sits - ordered a study, which concluded that in the event the plant were to be hit, it would release a 10-mile diameter cloud, an area that would cover both Haifa and Acre, a city 10 miles north along the Mediterranean coast. Both cities are home to Jewish and Arab residents.
Ynet quoted professor Amos Natua from the Technion Institute of Technology who said, "Researchers who conducted the studies in the 1990s concluded that there could be 70,000 casualties."
"The State Comptroller released a statement in 2003 that the number will likely be much higher," he added.
Haifa Mayor Yona Yahav pointed to Nasrallah's threat as a reminder to the Israeli government that it must move the plant out of the city, which has a population of nearly 300,000.
"We are happy for help" in raising the issue, Yahav said, "even if it arrives from a frightened man hiding in his bunker."
Nasrallah spoke remotely from an undisclosed location transmitted to a rally honoring former top Hezbollah leaders who were assassinated. The event is known as "The Loyalty to Martyrs and Leaders Day," Israel's Ynet reported.
Iran to Russia: Take $14 billion and build us a modern army - http://www.debka.com/article/25246/Iran-to-Russia-Take-14bn-and-build-us-a-modern-army
Iran's Defense Minister Gen. Hossein Dehghan arrived in Moscow this week at the head of a large military delegation and laid before President Vladimir Putin and his Defense Minister Gen. Sergei Shoigu a $14 billion check. Now, make our Revolutionary Guards Corps and regular forces into an up-to-the-minute war machine, he said.
The plan to make over and upgrade Iran's military was first approved by Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It is to be paid for with funds released by newly lifted sanctions against the Islamic Republic. The ayatollah aspires to rebuild the two branches - the IRGC with 150,000 troops and the regular army of 420,000 - as the most powerful armed force in the Middle East.
The fee on offer to Moscow covers the best-quality arms purchases and the foundation of a wide-ranging military industry for turning out Iran's requirements of warplanes, tanks and other high-grade systems.
The entire project as presented to Russian leaders is estimated to unfold over 10 years, during which relations between Tehran and Moscow should grow progressively stronger.
However, according to informed Western military sources, the Iranian scheme is unrealistic. The Russian army and its defense ministry are not capable of meeting all of Iran's military requirements for the next decade, even if its entire production output is set aside for this purpose. Russia is deeply immersed in two major wars in Ukraine and Syria. It is hard pressed to keep up with its own military needs, as well as with commitments undertaken under existing international arms contracts with China and India.
Iran's shopping list is vast and formidable, as revealed here by debkafile's intelligence sources. It is topped by highly advanced ballistic missile technology, together with the special metals the Russians have developed for upgrading their own missiles and their engines.
Other items are:
*Advanced SU-30 and SU-35 fighter-bombers
*Spy planes, especially the latest model of the Tu-214R intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft that was posted last week in Syria
*Submarines and different types of warships including missile ships
*A large number of the top-of-the-line T-90 tank as standard equipment for both branches of the Iranian military. The Russians are to build factories for its production in Iran
*The latest armored personnel carriers
*MRLS rocket launchers of diverse calibers
*Heavy, self-propelled artillery
Tehran appears to have taken Russian consent to this giant transaction as a given and regime officials are already enthusing over the "Russian weapons revolution" about to overtake its military. President Putin was quoted as agreeing in principle to the transaction, although he proposed first setting up a Russian-Iranian military team for examining the items on order and its financial aspects. Its conclusions would then be submitted to the decision making authorities of both governments before implementation goes ahead.
Commenting on these negotiations, a US official stressed Friday, Feb. 19, that the UN embargo on arms sales to Iran, embodied in the nuclear deal Iran signed with the six world powers last year, remains in force for five years.
Nuclear Material Stolen from Iraq Could Be Used by ISIS for Dirty Bomb - By Adam Eliyahu Berkowitz -
http://www.breakingisraelnews.com/61816/officials-fear-nuclear-material-stolen-by-isis-from-iraq-could-be-used-for-dirty-bomb-middle-east/#DQ68fMXfUj1H1TsG.97
"A fire devoureth before them, and behind them a flame blazeth; the land is as the garden of Eden before them, and behind them a desolate wilderness; yea, and nothing escapeth them." - Joel 2:3 (The Israel Bible�)
A recent report stated fears that nuclear material that had gone missing in Iraq might end up in the hands of the Islamic State (ISIS) and could easily be used to make a 'dirty bomb'.
Reuters reported on Wednesday that the material, .35 ounces of Ir-192 a radioactive isotope of iridium, was stored in a case the size of a laptop computer which was stolen in November from a secure site in Basra, Iraq
Reuters cited a document, dated 30 November and addressed to the ministry's Centre for Prevention of Radiation, describing "the theft of a highly dangerous radioactive source of Ir-192 with highly radioactive activity from a depot...in the Rafidhia area of Basra province".
A senior Iraqi security official from the Interior Ministry said to Reuters, "We are afraid the radioactive element will fall into the hands of Daesh(ISIS). They could simply attach it to explosives to make a dirty bomb."
The U.S. State Department said it was aware of the reports but has seen no sign that Islamic State or other militant groups have actually acquired it.
ISIS has used mustard gas in the past against Kurdish forces and it is strongly feared they will not hesitate to use such bomb.
A dirty bomb or radiological dispersal device (RDD) is a weapon that combines radioactive material with conventional explosives, contaminating the area around the explosion with deadly radioactive material. This is in contrast to a nuclear weapon, which uses nuclear fission to trigger a vastly more powerful blast.
Ir-192 is classed as a Category 2 radioactive by the International Atomic Energy Agency which means it could cause permanent injury to a person in close proximity to it for minutes or hours, and could be fatal to someone exposed for a period of hours to days..
Gamma rays from Ir-192 are used to detect flaws in oil pipelines in a process called industrial gamma radiography. The stolen material was being used by Weatherford International Plc, though it was owned by Istanbul-based SGS Turkey. Both companies are blaming each other for the situation.
SGS blamed Weatherford, saying, "The disappearance of the equipment occurred while the equipment was stored in the Weatherford bunker."
Weatherford responded by stating, ""SGS Supervise Gozetme Etud Control had sole control and access to the material and bunker."
Palestinians ramp up terror to gunfire. Israel Intelligence still at a loss - http://www.debka.com/article/25233/Palestinians-ramp-up-terror-to-gunfire-Israel-Intelligence-still-at-a-loss
Sunday, Feb. 14, will go down as a landmark day in the terror campaign the Palestinians have been waging against Israel for five months. It marked the latest, deliberately ramped up phase. After advancing from rocks, stabbings, car rammings and teen attacks, through the stage of loners to gangs of two and three, it moved up this week to shooting and explosive devices. Four Palestinian shooting attacks took place in 12 hours, most using knock-off Carl Gustav submachine guns turned out by illegal foundries in Nablus.
The latest attacks were deliberately planned to maximize casualties amomg Israeli police officers and soldiers. In Jenin it started with an ambush: Two 15-year old boys threw rocks at a group of Israeli reservists, who gave chase. One of the fleeing boys then pulled out a submachine gun, turned round and sprayed the pursuers, who returned the fire, killing the boys.
Using another tactic, at almost the same time, a Palestinian drew a submachine gun during a search at a checkpoint between the Jerusalem neighborhood of Har Homa and Bethlehem. Before the Border Guards police manning the checkpoint were harmed, they shot the gunman dead.
That evening, gunfire from the Palestinian village of Jilazon struck buildings at the Jewish community of Beit El near Ramallah. Miraculously, no one was hurt.
This new terror trend played out shortly before midnight Sunday at the Damascus Gate in Jerusalem. A 20-year old Palestinian approached a group of Border Guards as they were changing shifts, He carried a suspicious looking bag. When ordered to halt for a search, he pulled a Karl Gustav submarine gun out of the bag and started shooting. The police were faster and shot him dead. But during the melee, a second Palestinian positioned unnoticeably 100 meters away opened fire on the police He too was shot dead before causing harm.
He was later discovered to be a Palestinian policeman, a member of the Palestinian Authority's security apparatus. He was the third Palestinian cop known to have taken part in a terrorist operation.
For the past three weeks, ever since the combined shooting and explosives attack on Jan. 25 in Beit Horon next to Route 443, in which Shlomit Kirgman was murdered, it has been clear that the Palestinians have shifted from loners to teams of two or three terrorists and upgraded their weapons from knives to guns and explosives.
The current stage holds even greater menace because, even though a guiding hand is evident, Israel's intelligence and security services are still unable to provide an advance alert of imminent attacks.
The IDF chief of staff, Lieut. Gen. Gady Eisenkot, admitted on Jan. 19 that the intelligence networks had not provided a single advance warning of any attack. On Feb. 9, he offered an explanation: "The situation today is very complex with no central direction. Terrorists don't have to depend on accomplices and don't need an organizer, a planner or a laboratory for making explosives. All they need to do is snatch a knife from their kitchen.
Five days later, it is obvious that this theory no longer washes. Not every Palestinian can pick up a Karl Gustav in his kitchen. Someone is handing them out with ammo to specific addresses. The recipients are also undergoing some sort of training in their use. In that case, how are the preparations for imminent attacks being missed by the Shin Bet?
The announcement last week of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's choice of Nadav Argaman as the next Shin Bet Director after Yoram Cohen raised some eyebrows among leading lights in intelligence and the defense community, debkafile's intelligence sources report. This is not because he was not qualified or suitable for the post, or even undeserving of the lavish praise heaped upon him with the announcement, but because some doubted that he possessed the right set of qualities to meet the special needs of this particularly difficult time.
While Argaman, currently the Shin Bet's Dep. Director, is one of the intelligence community's top operations experts, he is no "Arabist." The first director who is not fluent in Arabic, he is not at home in the ins and outs of dealing with Palestinians.
The former Shin Bet Deputy Director, Roni Alsheikh has just those attributes. But he was recently moved out of line by being appointed Police Commissioner. In the view of security insiders, the roles should ideally have been reversed. The right man for the prime task of beating Palestinian terror would have been Alsheikh at the helm of the Shin Bet, with Argaman serving as police chief.
Arab states are seeking nuclear weapons to counter Iran, Israel warns - By Raf Sanchez - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/12156598/Arab-states-are-seeking-nuclear-weapons-to-counter-Iran-Israel-warns.html
Defense minister Moshe Ya'alon says his country is seeing signs of a much-feared nuclear arms race in the Middle East
Israel has picked up signs of the beginning of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East as Arab states seek nuclear weapons to counter Iran, the Israeli defense minister has warned.
Moshe Ya'alon said Sunni Arab nations were not reassured by last year's nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers and were making their own preparations for nuclear weapons.
"We see signs that countries in the Arab world are preparing to acquire nuclear weapons, that they are not willing to sit quietly with Iran on brink of a nuclear or atomic bomb," Mr Ya'alon said.
The defense minister gave no evidence to back up his claims but Israel closely monitors the military activities of its Arab neighbors.
Israel and the Sunni Gulf countries do not have diplomatic ties but are known to talk through back channels and are united in their opposition to Iran.
Advocates of the nuclear deal, including President Barack Obama, argue that the agreement heads off a Middle East arms race as Iran's nuclear capabilities are rolled back.
But Mr Ya'alon said Iran was liable to break the agreement as their economic situation improves with the lifting of international sanctions. "If at a certain stage they feel confident, particularly economically, they are liable to make a break for the bomb."
Even if the agreement for Iran to limit its nuclear enrichment holds, Mr Ya'alon said its 15-year expiry date was "just around the corner".
He did not specify which Arab nations were making nuclear preparations but Saudi Arabia, the leader of the Sunni states, is considered the most likely candidate.
Its vast oil wealth could help fund a nuclear program while its ties with Pakistan, a nuclear power, could provide technical expertise.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) also has oil money and is already building a civilian nuclear power program, though there is no evidence it is moving to develop weapons.
Mr Ya'alon made the claim after meeting the king of Jordan, one of only two Arab states with which Israel has diplomatic ties.
While Israel's government tried vigorously to derail the nuclear deal, the Israeli military has acknowledged that the agreement has at least bought time before a confrontation with Iran.
Gadi Eisenkot, the head of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), said earlier this year that the deal contained "many risks" but also "opportunities" for Israel.
Israel, which secretly built its own nuclear weapons in the 1960s, is now playing a somewhat constructive role in helping to monitor the implementation of the deal, according to Western diplomats.
Israel has helped provide technical knowledge and intelligence as the world tries to make sure Iran is abiding by the terms of the agreement, they said.
Mr Ya'alon said Israel was following the implementation closely "because over many years the Iranians have been deceitful about their nuclear program".
Syria, Russia and Iran Update - By Daymond Duck -
http://www.raptureready.com/featured/duck/dd214.html
First, in early February, it was reported that Russia's Pres. Vladimir Putin has decided to impose a political settlement on the warring factions in Syria and Pres. Obama has agreed to go along with him. According to the report, Pres. Assad and his entire clan will step down, but no date was set.
Whether or not this happens remains to be seen, but Iran is vehemently opposed to it. This is a dangerous development because in early 2012 Syria's Pres. Assad said he will start a full-scale regional war with Israel before he will resign from office.
There is little doubt that the war in Syria needs to be stopped. Multitudes are being driven out of their homes, going hungry, dying, etc. But Russian's move could take the Middle East from one war to another.
Second, God gave Ezekiel a message: In the latter days and latter years, He will drag Russia from her place in the far north to the mountains of Israel (Ezek. 38:4, 8, 16).
In this battle, called the battle of Gog and Magog, Russia will be aligned with Persia (Iran), Cush (perhaps Ethiopia and/or Iraq and/Sudan), Put (Libya), Togarmah of the north quarters (probably Turkey), Gomer (perhaps Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, etc. or Germany, but unclear) and others (Ezek. 38:5-6).
In various articles that appeared in early February, it was reported that the following nations are in Syria: Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, the Islamic State and Turkey. The Islamic State probably has troops from some or all of the other nations.
This is the point: Compare the list of nations that the Bible says will attack Israel in the latter days and latter years with the list of nations that the news says is already in Syria. The lists are very similar.
But there is a problem. Instead of being aligned with each other against Israel like the Bible says, these nations are fighting each other. This means the battle of Gog and Magog won't take place until these nations agree to temporarily set aside their differences.
The UN and U.S. are already in an ongoing effort to make that happen. How long will it take? We don't know. The UN and U.S. could have immediate success or it could drag on for awhile.
But their temporary truce won't last. When these reconciled enemies get to the mountains of Israel, "every man's sword shall be against his brother" and these troops will kill many of their own troops (Ezek. 38:21).
Third, on Jan. 12, 2016, an Iranian naval unit detained 10 U.S. sailors when two U.S. vessels strayed into Iranian waters. Just recently, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, said "divine forces" delivered the Americans into Iran's hands.
The book of Daniel mentions an evil spirit called the prince of Persia (or the Prince of Iran) that hindered the answer to one of Daniel's prayers for 21 days (Dan. 10:13).
Bible scholars believe this prince of Persia is an evil spirit that rules over Iran. They believe an unseen war is going on in heavenly places behind the scenes between the angels of God and the demons of Satan, the Spirit of Christ and the spirit of Antichrist.
The Bible also teaches that Iran's defeat on the mountains of Israel will come at the hands of God's divine force (Ezek. 38:4; Dan. 12:1). One must wonder if Mr. Khamenei's divine forces are really the prince of Persia and his minions (Eph. 6:12).
We can also ponder if all of the turmoil in the Middle East is that of a cosmic struggle in the heavenly realm; and if the recent spread of violence in the Middle East means the intensity of this spiritual warfare has increased.
It is well to remember that we are dealing with a spiritual world and the Christian's hope is the return of Jesus for His church. Even so, come, Lord Jesus (Rev. 22:20).
Prophecy Plus Ministries
Daymond & Rachel Duck
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World War 3 Could Start This Month: 350,000 Soldiers in Saudi Arabia Stand Ready to Invade Syria - By Michael Snyder -
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/world-war-3-might-start-this-month-350000-soldiers-gathered-in-saudi-arabia-are-ready-to-invade-syria
350,000 soldiers, 20,000 tanks, 2,450 warplanes and 460 military helicopters are massing in northern Saudi Arabia for a military exercise that is being called "Northern Thunder". According to the official announcement, forces are being contributed by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Sudan, Kuwait, Morocco, Pakistan, Tunisia, Oman, Qatar, Malaysia and several other nations. This exercise will reportedly last for 18 days, and during that time the airspace over northern Saudi Arabia will be closed to air traffic. This will be the largest military exercise in the history of the region, and it comes amid rumors that Saudi Arabia and Turkey are preparing for a massive ground invasion of Syria.
If you were going to gather forces for an invasion, this is precisely how you would do it. Governments never come out and publicly admit that forces are moving into position for an invasion ahead of time, so "military exercises" are a common excuse that gets used for this sort of thing.
If these exercises are actually being used as an excuse to mass forces near the northern Saudi border, then we should expect an invasion to begin within the next couple of weeks. If it happens, we should expect to see the Saudi coalition storm through western Iraq and into Syria from the south, and it is likely that Turkey will come in from the north.
The goal would be to take out the Assad regime before Russia, Iran and Hezbollah could react. For the past couple of years, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and their allies have been funding the Sunni insurgency in Syria, and they were counting on those insurgents to be able to take down the Assad regime by themselves.
You see, the truth is that ISIS was never supposed to lose in Syria. Saudi Arabia and her allies have been funneling massive amounts of money to ISIS, and hundreds of millions of dollars of ISIS oil has been shipped into Turkey where it is sold to the rest of the world.
The major Sunni nations wanted ISIS and the other Sunni insurgent groups to take down Assad. In the aftermath, Saudi Arabia and her allies intended to transform Syria into a full-blown Sunni nation.
But then Russia, Iran and Hezbollah stepped forward to assist the Assad regime. Russian air support completely turned the tide of the war, and now the Sunni insurgents are on the brink of losing.
Aleppo was once the largest city in Syria, and Sunni insurgents have controlled it since 2012. But now relentless Russian airstrikes have made it possible for Syrian, Iranian and Hezbollah ground forces to surround the city, and it is about to fall back into the hands of the Syrian government.
If this happens, the war will essentially be over.
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and their allies have invested massive amounts of time, money and effort into overthrowing Assad, and they aren't about to walk away now.
If the war was to end right at this moment, a weakened Assad regime would remain in power, and Iran and Hezbollah would be the dominant powers in the country for years to come. And once Assad died, it would be inevitable that Iran and Hezbollah would attempt to transform Syria into a full-blown Shiite nation. This is something that Saudi Arabia and Turkey want to avoid at all costs.
So they are actually considering what was once absolutely unthinkable - a massive ground invasion of Syria.
But if Saudi Arabia, Turkey and their allies go in, they run the risk of a full-blown war with Russia, Iran and Hezbollah. Just consider some of the comments that we have seen in recent days...
Reacting to a potential troop deployment, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem said Saturday, "Let no one think they can attack Syria or violate its sovereignty because I assure you any aggressor will return to their country in a wooden coffin."
Pavel Krasheninnikov, a deputy of Russia's State Duma, has warned Saudi Arabia that any military ground operation in Syria without Damascus' consent would amount to a declaration of war, Press TV reported.
We could literally be looking at the spark that sets off World War 3. I can't believe that Saudi Arabia and Turkey are actually considering this.
And if it does happen, you can rest assured that Barack Obama gave them the green light to go in.
Unfortunately, it sounds like the decision may have already been made. Just consider what Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu is saying...
"If we have such a strategy, then Turkey and Saudi Arabia may launch a ground operation," he added, fueling concerns that a foreign troop invasion may soon further complicate the already turbulent situation in the war-torn country.
Earlier, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE voiced their readiness to contribute troops for a ground operation in Syria on the condition that the US would lead the intervention. Damascus and its key regional ally, Iran, warned that such a foreign force would face strong resistance.
And in addition to all of the forces massing in northern Saudi Arabia, the London Independent is reporting that the Saudis have sent troops and aircraft to a military base in Turkey...
Saudi Arabia is sending troops and fighter jets to Turkey's Incirlik military base ahead of a possible ground invasion of Syria.
The Turkish foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, confirmed the deployment in a statement to the Yeni Åžafak newspaper on Saturday, days before a temporary ceasefire is due to come into force.
There are reports that Saudi officials are saying that the decision to send in ground troops is "irreversible", and Reuters is reporting that the Syrian government claims that some Turkish troops have already entered the country...
The Syrian government says Turkish forces were believed to be among 100 gunmen it said entered Syria on Saturday accompanied by 12 pick-up trucks mounted with heavy machine guns, in an ongoing supply operation to insurgents fighting Damascus.
"The operation of supplying ammunition and weapons is continuing via the Bab al-Salama crossing to the Syrian area of Azaz," the Syrian foreign ministry said in a letter to the U.N. Security Council published by state news agency SANA.
Of course the Turkish government is not going to confirm that report, but what we do know is that Turkey is shelling Kurdish forces on the Syrian side of the border. The funny thing is that these Kurdish forces are actually being supported and supplied by the U.S. government.
So the Turks are not supposed to be doing this, but according to Reuters they have been doing it for two days in a row anyway...
The Turkish army shelled positions held by Kurdish-backed militia in northern Syria for a second day on Sunday, killing two fighters, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group said.
Turkey on Saturday demanded the powerful Syrian Kurdish YPG militia withdraw from areas that it had captured in the northern Aleppo region in recent days from insurgents in Syria, including the Menagh air base. The shelling has targeted those areas.
The hostility between Turkey and the Kurds goes back a long, long way. The Syrian Kurds are not threatening Turkey in any way right now, but Turkey is using the instability in the region as an excuse to lob artillery shells at a hated enemy. It is an act of naked aggression that the Obama administration should be loudly denouncing.
In addition, it is being reported that Syrian government forces have also been getting shelled by the Turkish military...
Anatolia news agency reported that the Turkish military hit Syrian government forces on Saturday, adding that the shelling had been in response to fire inflicted on a Turkish military guard post in Turkey's southern Hatay region.
Turkish artillery targeted Syrian forces again late on Saturday, according to a military source quoted by RIA Novosti. The attack targeted the town of Deir Jamal in the Aleppo Governorate.
Needless to say, the Russians are quite alarmed by all of this.
In fact, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev is warning about what could happen if things spiral out of control...
In the wake of Saudi Arabia's proposal to send in ground troops on Thursday, the Russian Prime Minister claimed the move could spark a new world war.
"A ground operation draws everyone taking part in it into a war," he told the Handelsblatt newspaper.
"The Americans and our Arab partners must consider whether or not they want a permanent war."
If Saudi Arabia, Turkey and their allies launch an invasion and make a mad dash to take out the Assad regime in Damascus, the Russians will inevitably respond.
And if tactical nuclear weapons are necessary to keep the invading forces out of Damascus, the Russians will not be shy about using them.
I don't know if I have ever seen a scenario which was more likely to initiate World War 3 than the one that we are watching unfold right now.
So what has the mainstream media been saying about all of this?
Incredibly, they have been almost entirely silent. When he went looking for news about these events, James Bailey could find almost nothing on either Fox News or CNN...
I just visited the home page for Foxnews.com and found not one single mention of the insane events now unfolding in the Middle East. I could not believe it, so I used my Find tool to search for Syria and Saudi Arabia. Not one mention!
Of course that could change at any moment, but nothing there when I checked. Their stories were all about the meaningless Presidential election, which has already been decided regardless of what we think about it, and other stories about entertainment, sports, Congressional political theater, etc.
So I went to CNN and found just about the same thing with one news story about the Syrian cease fire, but when I read it there was no mention of any of the big events that have developed this week. This is truly an amazing media blackout!
But Fox News does have space to run headlines like these...
-Spanish man skipped work for 6 years, still got paid
-48 people rescued from stuck tram cars at New Hampshire ski resort
-Lovelorn elephant takes out his rage on more than a dozen cars
And CNN apparently thinks that these news stories are more important than the potential beginning of World War 3...
-Kanye West drops album, says he's $53 million in debt
-Dutch cops train eagles to hunt drones
-Teen hands out 900 flowers to girls at school
If Saudi Arabia, Turkey and their allies are going to conduct an invasion of Syria, the most likely time for this to happen will be by the end of this month during these military exercises.
If we can get to March 1st and no invasion has happened yet, perhaps we can breathe a little sigh of relief.
But if it does happen, and the Russians and the Iranians decide to shoot back, it really could be the start of World War 3.
If you have not been paying attention up until now, you need to start, because this could literally change everything.
Gulf states seek nukes against Iran, had secret contacts with Tel Aviv - Israeli defense chief - https://www.rt.com/news/332474-israel-gulf-states-nuclear/
Persian Gulf states are seeking nuclear weapons to counter "bad guy" Iran and have held clandestine meetings with Israel despite not having official ties with Tel Aviv, Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon revealed at the Munich Security Conference in Germany.
"We see signs that countries in the Arab world are preparing to acquire nuclear weapons, that they are not willing to sit quietly with Iran on brink of a nuclear or atomic bomb," Ya'alon told fellow defense ministers on Sunday, the final day of the Munich Security Conference.
Ya'alon did not name specific countries who might be interested in developing nuclear weapons and gave no evidence to back up his claims.
However, he then made a surprise statement that the Gulf states - officially hostile to Tel Aviv because of its occupation of the West Bank - had held clandestine meetings with Israel.
"Not only Jordan and Egypt," he said, referring to the only Arab countries who signed peace treaties with Israel after three Arab-Israeli wars.
"I speak about the Gulf states and North African states too. Unfortunately they are not here to listen. For them, Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood are the enemy. Iran is the bad guy for us and for the Sunni regimes. They are not shaking hands [with Israelis] in public, but we meet in closed rooms."
Almost immediately, when Ya'alon finished his speech, Saudi Arabia's Prince Turki al-Faisal, who was also attending the discussion, asked to make an intervention: "Handshakes with Israelis have not helped the Palestinians much."
Prince Faisal insisted that Sunni Arab countries, including Gulf monarchies, are furious with Israel over the occupation of the West Bank and its treatment of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
"Why should the Arabs feel friendship to you when you do that [to the Palestinians]?" he asked.
Gulf countries' ancient rivalry with Iran has a religious dimension. The predominantly Sunni monarchies accuse Tehran of trying to dominate the region by backing Shia minorities all across the Middle East. In 2004, King Abdullah II of Jordan, one of the most pro-American Arab rulers, described it as a "Shia crescent."
The notion refers to a crescent-shaped region of the Middle East where the majority population is Shia or where there is a strong Shia minority in the population.
In the meantime, Israel is widely believed to possess dozens of nuclear warheads, although official statistics do not exist.
Israel possesses Jericho-3 ballistic missiles capable of delivering up to 1,000kg load at ranges of 4,800 to 6,500km. Additionally, it is believed to have a naval nuclear strike capability, using Dolphin-class submarine-launched nuclear-capable cruise missiles.
The Israeli Air Force also has F-15I and F-16I Sufa fighter aircraft, which can be utilized to deliver tactical and strategic nuclear weapons at long distances using external fuel tanks or aerial refueling fleet of modified Boeing 707s.
The cease-fire effort is an attempt by the US and EU to end the civil war that has resulted in a million deaths.
What effect, if any, will the Syrian cease-fire plan have on Israel? Announced in Munich last week by the major world powers - including Russia and the US - the plan calls for a "cessation of hostilities" within a week and immediate access for humanitarian supplies.
"We believe we have made progress on both the humanitarian front and the cessation of hostilities front, and these two fronts, this progress, has the potential - fully implemented, fully followed through on - to be able to change the daily lives of the Syrian people," US Secretary of State John Kerry declared on Thursday.
The cease-fire effort is an attempt by the US and EU to end the civil war that has resulted in half a million deaths, and to stop the waves of refugees making their way to Europe through Turkey. The humanitarian crisis in Syria since the civil war began five years ago has reached massive proportions with eight million Syrians - or about a third of the population - uprooted from their homes.
But without a more robust American involvement in Syria, the cease-fire plan is unlikely to succeed and this could have an indirect impact on Israeli interests.
It seems likely that Russia and Russia's allies in Syria - which include the Assad regime, Iranian forces and Hezbollah - are poised to benefit from the cease-fire. That's because it contains a major loophole: The agreement doesn't apply to Islamic State or the Nusra Front, two of the main targets of Assad and his allies, which leaves Moscow free to continue its air war in Syria. That means fighting in some parts of the country would continue - and even intensify - even if the cease-fire takes effect as planned.
And because insurgent groups supported by the US, Saudi Arabia and Qatar often cooperate in some places with the well-armed, well-financed Nusra Front out of tactical necessity, Russia can easily argue that many of these opposition forces are, in effect, Nusra affiliates. In any event, Russia has been bombing opposition groups positioned nowhere near Nusra or Islamic State. And there is no reason to believe that the Russians will stop in the wake of a cease-fire agreement that permits them to continue to fight Nusra. They will simply claim they are attacking Islamic State and Nusra when in reality they are attacking other rebel forces.
This means Russia's indiscriminate bombing of Sunni- controlled areas will likely continue, particularly in Aleppo and in Deraa province, the latter the less important of the two, situated in southern Syria, close to the border with Jordan. Deraa has symbolic importance because it is where Sunni tribesman started the civil war five years.
Capturing Deraa is also of strategic importance for the Russians and Bashar Assad. Rebels would be cut off from assistance from Jordan. And the Nusra Front's headquarters are located there.
The fate of Deraa is important to Israel because it is just 35 kilometers from the border fence on the Golan Heights. If the Russians capture Deraa their next step might be to recapture the Syrian Golan in cooperation with Hezbollah and the Iranians. Russian jets would be operating dangerously close to Israel, which would test the coordination between the IDF and the Russian Air Force.
If the Russian-Syrian coalition captures the Syrian side of the Golan Heights, it would make it easier for the Iranians and Hezbollah to open up another front for terrorist attacks against Israel.
Admittedly, Moscow has no interest in seeing Iran and Hezbollah open up a new front with Israel. Israeli counterattacks on forces working with the Assad regime would weaken the Assad coalition. Russia does not want to see this happen. Nevertheless, Hezbollah and Iran might take the risk of carrying out limited terrorist attacks that do not lead to major Israeli retaliations, and Israel might be hesitant to respond aggressively out of concern it might hit Russian troops in the process.
The cease-fire negotiated in Munich is unlikely to bring about an end to the slaughter in Syria. It is more likely to allow Russia to continue to attack Sunni targets indiscriminately. The Assad regime and its allies would then be strengthened. And this could have bad ramifications for Israel.
It is imperative that Israel continue to closely monitor the situation in Syria and not let its guard down.
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