Hezbollah Using Lebanon To Prepare For Future War With Israel - By Yaakov Lappin -
Hezbollah and Lebanon's official military--the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF)--are increasingly cooperating with one another, Israeli military sources say, and this relationship is helping the Iranian-backed terrorist organization run southern Lebanon.
"We actually see them working together," an IDF official said earlier this month during a briefing to reporters near the Lebanese border. "We see them go the same villages together. We know who is who. Sometimes the Hezbollah personnel wear LAF uniforms. The LAF, of course, are allowed to be here."
The cooperation also takes the form of joint vehicle patrols, and the LAF never enters a southern Lebanese village without gaining prior Hezbollah approval.
This relationship helps Hezbollah get around U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which forbids it from moving armed units into south Lebanon.
Resolution 1701 does, however, permit the LAF to be in the area, enabling the Lebanese military to act as a cover for Hezbollah's activities.
With the Syrian civil war beginning to wind down, Hezbollah, armed with a formidable rocket and missile arsenal, is preparing to bring its highly trained units in Syria back home to Lebanon. Many will head to the southern Lebanese front with Israel, according to IDF assessments.
The close cooperation with the LAF could allow the Shi'ite organization to deploy its forces even more effectively, as they prepare for potential war with Israel.
"The LAF has lost its independence a long time ago," Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, a former IDF Military Intelligence research division chief, and a former director-general of the Israeli Ministry of Strategic Affairs, told the Investigative Project on Terrorism.
"Not just LAF - but all of the Lebanese security apparatus - has lost independence. We see it in ongoing cooperation in intelligence, operational, and security activities - in all of these fields. This is an area of concern," he said.
Many in the international community "want to think about the LAF as a body that is part of the system that can be worked with, and which is not contaminated by terrorism," said Kuperwasser. "But in reality, there are many doubts that this is in fact the situation. That should worry everyone, because no one wants to see Hizballah get more capabilities than it already has."
Kuperwasser noted that, despite their growing cooperation, Hizballah and the LAF do not view everything eye to eye. The LAF has a commitment to the Lebanese state, while Hizballah has many identities, he noted, including Lebanese, Shi'ite, jihadist, and Iranian, as well as being heavily invested in Syria.
"Hizballah operates on many fronts. Hence, as soon as it becomes connected with the LAF, this projects on the LAF's conduct," the intelligence expert said.
"We see an Iranian willingness to assist the LAF. We see that the LAF is supposed to be the organization deployed in southern Lebanon, according to Resolution 1701, and ensures that there is no Hizballah presence in the area. But in actuality, because of the cooperation with Hizballah, this has turned into a fiction," he added.
Due to such trends, Israel has repeatedly warned that it can no longer make a clear distinction between Hizballah and the Lebanese state or the LAF.
Should any potential security escalation occur, the IDF source said during the briefing earlier this month, the IDF's response would "mostly depend on how the LAF behaves."
"If we see the LAF move back and give us space, we will not attack them. If they take part in hostilities, we will have to attack," he cautioned.
On a regional level, the Hizballah/LAF cooperation has also caused significant damage to Lebanon's relationship with the Sunni Arab powers, particularly Saudi Arabia.
Hizballah chief Hassan Nasrallah maintains cooperation with Yemen's Houthis forces, who are engaged in a major armed conflict with the Saudis.
"Nasrallah does not care about the Lebanese state. From Lebanon, he operates in a way that endangers the Sunni moderate states, and the U.S.," said Kuperwasser. "And all of this happens in Lebanon with the knowledge of the LAF. This must cast a shadow on the willingness of the West and the pragmatic Arab states to cooperate with Lebanon."
Hopes that further cooperation with Lebanon can "save the situation, and foster a different attitude, making the LAF act differently" still exist in the international community, said Kuperwasser. "But Hizballah does not read the situation this way, and neither do the Lebanese, who are continuing their cooperation with Hizballah."
Hizballah's three components
Hizballah's cooperation with the LAF is just one aspect of its larger Lebanese military operations, which are made up of three main components.
The first involves defensive units, embedded in every southern Lebanese village, and in open areas. These units are tasked with challenging a potential Israeli ground offensive and also have access to underground bunkers and tunnels. The units maintain war readiness, equipment, and weapons.
A second component is Hizballah's offensive firepower, which is estimated to exceed 120,000 missiles, making it one of the largest collections in the world. This arsenal places almost every area in Israel within range. Hizballah is expected to focus its heaviest firepower on northern Israeli border regions and Israeli military targets, but it can fire thousands of rockets at greater Tel Aviv, and beyond, paralyzing the Israeli home front.
Its third component is an elite ground attack force, called "Radwan," which would seek to use newly gained battle experience from Syria, and cross the border into Israel, where, according to IDF assessments, its mission would be "to kill as much as they can in villages and bases, and symbolically attack in Israel, so that after the war, Hezbollah can claim: 'We won.'"
The IDF is closely studying these threats and drawing up preparations of its own, designed to crush Hizballah in an unprecedented manner should a conflict erupt.
The fate of the LAF, it would seem, in any such scenario, would depend on its ability to stay out of the fighting.
The Palestinians' Three No's: What They Mean - by Bassam Tawil - https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/13029/hamas-rejection
What does Hamas, the Palestinian terror group that rules the Gaza Strip, mean when it says that it "won't pay any political price" in return for a truce agreement with Israel? Answer: No to recognizing Israel, no to abandoning the dream of eliminating Israel, and no to disarming.
In recent weeks, several Hamas leaders and spokesmen have repeatedly been quoted as saying that their group will not make any political concessions as part of a truce deal with Israel. The statements came as Egypt and the United Nations continue their effort to reach a truce that would end the ongoing violence along the border between the Gaza Strip and Israel.
"We want a decision to end the blockade on the Gaza Strip," Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh said in a recent speech marking the 30th anniversary of the establishment of his group. "Any understandings that are reached to end the blockade will not be in return for a political price."
Haniyeh's remarks were echoed by several Hamas leaders and officials belonging to Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ,) the second largest terrorist group in the Gaza Strip.
In an interview with the Gaza-based Al-Istiklal newspaper, senior PIJ official Nafez Azzam claimed that the Egyptians and the UN were recently close to achieving a truce deal that does not require the Palestinian terrorist groups to "pay a political price."
When Hamas and PIJ talk about paying a political price, they are referring to demands (by Israel and many in the international community) that the Palestinian terrorist groups lay down their weapons, halt terrorist attacks on Israel, and abandon their dream of eliminating Israel and replacing it with an Islamist state. These are terms, of course, to which no Palestinian terrorist group could ever afford to agree, not even in return for the blockade on the Gaza Strip being lifted or economic and humanitarian aid to the two million Palestinians living in the coastal enclave. Accepting such conditions would make them look bad in the eyes of their supporters, who would then accuse them of betraying the Arabs and Muslims by failing to fulfill their promise of destroying Israel.
Anyone who thinks that Hamas or PIJ or any other terrorist group would ever agree to disarm is living in an illusion. It is unthinkable. As far as these groups are concerned, keeping their weapons is tremendously more important than improving the living conditions of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
"We will not hand our weapons to the Palestinian Authority, which conducts security coordination with Israel [in the West Bank]," leading Hamas official Ahmed Bahr said in a recent Friday prayer sermon in the Gaza Strip. "The weapons of the resistance are the legitimate weapons that will be used to restore our rights and liberate our lands. The option of resistance is the only and shortest way to liberate our land and restore our rights."
To be clear, when the Palestinian terrorist groups talk about "resistance," they are referring to terror attacks on Israel. These include suicide bombings, launching rockets and mortars towards Israel, and hurling explosive devices and firebombs at Israeli soldiers and civilians. These groups do not believe in any form of peaceful and non-violent protests. For them, there is only one realistic option to achieve their goal of destroying Israel: the armed struggle.
Anyone who thinks that Hamas or any other terror group would agree to abandon its extremist ideology in return for easing the economic restrictions on the Gaza Strip is also living in a dream world. This is an ideology that clearly states that Jews have no right to live in a sovereign and independent state of their own on what many perceive as "Muslim-owned land." The Hamas charter is refreshingly clear on this subject:
"The Islamic Resistance Movement believes that the land of Palestine is an Islamic Waqf consecrated for future Moslem generations until Judgement Day. It, or any part of it, should not be squandered: it, or any part of it, should not be given up."
To their credit, Hamas and its allies in the Gaza Strip openly remind the world at every opportunity that their ultimate goal is to "liberate all of Palestine," from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River: the exact area of Israel.
"The Palestinian resistance has a real army whose mission is to liberate all of Palestine," declared Mahmoud Zahar, a senior Hamas official. "By God's will, this army will reach Jerusalem."
If this is the case, why are the Palestinian terrorist groups conducting indirect talks with Israel to reach a new truce agreement in the Gaza Strip under the auspices of Egypt and the UN? The answer is simple. They want a truce, or period of calm, so that they can continue preparing for the next war against Israel without having to worry about Israeli military operations.
The Palestinian terrorist groups see the proposed truce as a temporary measure that will allow them to continue smuggling weapons into the Gaza Strip and building new tunnels that would be used to infiltrate Israel and kill as many civilians and soldiers as possible. They want Israel to ease restrictions on the Gaza Strip so that they can continue to launch terrorist attacks against Israelis without having to lay down their own weapons or abandon their radical and vicious ideology.
The Palestinian terrorist groups are at least honest about their true intentions. They do not hide their desire to destroy Israel and kill as many Jews as possible. Hamas and its allies do not care about the well-being of their people in the Gaza Strip. They are determined to fight Israel to the last Palestinian.
It is time for all those involved in efforts to achieve a truce in the Gaza Strip to listen to what the Palestinian terrorist groups are saying. The message the terrorist groups are sending is very clear: no to recognizing Israel's right to exist, no to abandoning our dream of eliminating Israel, and no to laying down our weapons.
Israel Fears Russia Seeking To Change Rules Of The Game In Syria - By Benjamin Kerstein - http://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=2581
Veteran Israeli analysts believe President Vladimir Putin is exploiting the downing of a Russian plane in order to change the rules of the game in Syria, and that the US has abandoned Israel on the issue of Iranian entrenchment in the war-torn country.
Last week, Israel presented evidence to the Russian army that the plane in question was in fact downed by Syrian forces, but Russia later rejected the claim and blamed the Jewish state for the loss.
According to analyst Amir Bohbot, Putin is now using the incident to shore up his damaged prestige as a result of recent Israeli actions against Iran in Syria.
"As senior officials think," he wrote at the Hebrew news website Walla, "Putin's tragic event has become a ripe fruit and he will leverage it to impose new rules of the game, such as ... much earlier warning systems, restrictions on traffic routes that will reduce the IDF's freedom of action on the sea and in the air," and to gain concessions from Israel and the US.
As a result, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, "will be required to fight not for Israel's honor but for the freedom of action of the Israeli Air Force and the ability to stand up for its security interests. ... Any result other than maintaining the IDF's freedom of action will be considered a failure."
Iran, said Bohbot, has yet to take advantage of the current tensions between Russia and Israel, "but time is pressing and every day in the Middle East is critical." The Russians, for their part, are playing for time: "They are in no hurry and according to Kremlin experts, they will rip Israel well until they make a final decision on how to act."
Some Israeli sources are warning that Putin may continue to smile at Netanyahu, while at the same time directing his defense ministry to close Syrian air space against all foreign aircraft, not just Israeli warplanes. This would shut down Israel's air campaign for eradicating Iran's military grip on Syria - or bring it in conflict with Russian forces.
This would happen if the US and Israel decided for their part, to put Putin's directive to the test. Therefore, just as Russia's air force is no doubt planning its next steps in Syria, so too are the US and Israel.
Longtime Israeli analyst Ehud Yaari also chimed in, writing for Israel's Channel 2: "From the US perspective, we hear a lot of talk from President Trump and sources around him about their determination to curb Iranian activity and subversion in the region."
This, however, is just talk, and has not resulted in meaningful action, said Yaari. "In practical terms, the US has left Israel alone to deal with Iran's dangerous actions in Syria and to stand and deal alone with the presence of the Russian air force there," he said.
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