Barreling Toward a Nuclear and Ballistic Missile Arms Race in the Middle East - By Dr. James M. Dorsey -
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Middle East is barreling toward a nuclear and ballistic missile arms race. That race is being aided and abetted by a US policy that views the region through the dual prism of the need to stop an aggressive, expansionary, and destabilizing Islamic Republic that seeks to dominate it, and the view of the region as a lucrative market for the US defense and nuclear industry.
US policy is not the only factor feeding the burgeoning nuclear and ballistic missile arms race in the Middle East. It is also being enabled by the inability or unwillingness of the other major powers - Europe, Russia, and China - to counter crippling US sanctions against Iran in ways that would ensure that Tehran maintains an interest in adhering to the 2015 international agreement that curbed its nuclear program despite last year's US withdrawal from the deal.
With the Middle East teetering on the brink of a military confrontation, Iran has vowed to start breaching the agreement next month if the international community, and particularly Europe, fails to shield it from US sanctions.
Former International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) deputy director general Olli Heinonen, a hardliner when it comes to Iran, asserted recently during a visit to Israel that Iran would need six to eight months to enrich uranium in the quantity and quality required to produce a nuclear bomb.
US and Chinese willingness to lower safeguards in their nuclear dealings with Saudi Arabia further fuels Iranian doubts about the value of the nuclear agreement and potentially opens the door to a nuclear arms race.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recently visited Saudi Arabia and the UAE before joining President Trump for visits to India and South Korea and talks with world leaders at a G20 summit in Japan.
"We'll be talking with them about how to make sure that we are all strategically aligned, and how we can build out a global coalition, a coalition not only throughout the Gulf states, but in Asia and in Europe...to push back against the world's largest state sponsor of terror," Pompeo said as he departed Washington.
Trump detailed the prism through which he approaches the Middle East in a wide-ranging interview with NBC News. He deflected calls for an FBI investigation into last October's murder by Saudi government agents of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the kingdom's consulate in Istanbul.
"Iran's killed many, many people a day. Other countries in the Middle East - this is a hostile place. This is a vicious, hostile place. If you're going to look at Saudi Arabia, look at Iran, look at other countries," Trump said, suggesting that crimes by one country provide license to others.
Asked whether Saudi arms buying was reason to let Saudi Arabia off the hook, Trump responded: "No, no. But I'm not like a fool that says, 'We don't want to do business with them.' And by the way, if they don't do business with us, you know what they do? They'll do business with the Russians or with the Chinese."
Trump and other senior US officials reiterated in recent days that they would not allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon.
Europe has so far unsuccessfully sought to put in place an effective mechanism that would allow European and potentially non-European companies that do business with Iran to circumvent US sanctions unscathed.
As the US prepared to announce new sanctions, Russia said it would help Iran with oil exports and its banking sector if the European mechanism fails to get off the ground. (It offered no details.)
While countering the sanctions is Iran's immediate priority, Saudi moves to put in place the building blocks for a nuclear industry that could develop a military component and a ballistic missiles capability - moves that are occurring with the help of the Trump administration as well as China - are likely to increase Iranian skepticism about the nuclear accord's value.
Trump's argument that Russia and China would fill America's shoes if the US refused to sell arms and technology to Saudi Arabia is not without merit, even if it fails to justify a lack of safeguards in the provision of nuclear technology to the kingdom.
In 2017, with the US refusing to share its most advanced drone technology, China opened its first overseas defense production facility in Saudi Arabia. State-owned China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) is manufacturing its CH-4 Caihong, or Rainbow drone, as well as associated equipment in Saudi Arabia. The CH-4 is comparable to the US armed MQ-9 Reaper drone.
Satellite images released by the Middlebury Institute of International Studies and confirmed by US intelligence show that Saudi Arabia has significantly escalated its ballistic missile program with the help of China.
The missile program runs counter to US policy, which sought for decades to ensure that Saudi Arabia had air supremacy in the region so it wouldn't seek to bypass the US to upgrade its missile capabilities.
The program, which started in the late 1980s with Saudi Arabia's first clandestine missile purchases from China, suggests that the kingdom, uncertain about the reliability of the US, is hedging its bets.
Saudi development of a ballistic missile capability significantly dims any prospect of Iran's agreeing to limit its missile program - a key demand put forward by the Trump administration.
In 2017, Saudi Arabia signed a nuclear energy cooperation agreement with China that included a feasibility study for the construction of high-temperature gas-cooled (HTGR) nuclear power plants in the kingdom as well as cooperation in intellectual property and the development of a domestic industrial supply chain for HTGRs built in Saudi Arabia.
The HTGR agreement built on an accord signed in 2012 that involved maintenance and development of nuclear power plants and research reactors, as well as the provision of Chinese nuclear fuel.
The Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) warned at the time that the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement had "not eliminated the kingdom's desire for nuclear weapons capabilities and even nuclear weapons."
The Trump administration, eager to corner a deal for the acquisition of designs for nuclear power plants, a contract valued at up to $80 billion depending on how many Saudi Arabia ultimately decides to build, has approved several nuclear technology transfers to the kingdom.
It has also approved licenses for six US firms to sell atomic power technology to Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia is nearing completion of its first atomic reactor in the King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology near Riyadh.
A signatory of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Saudi Arabia has ignored calls by the IAEA to implement proportionate safeguards and an inspection regime that would ensure that it does not move toward development of a nuclear military capability.
"Saudi Arabia is currently subject to less intrusive monitoring by international inspectors because Riyadh concluded what is known as a small quantities protocol with the agency. The small quantities protocol was designed to simplify safeguards for states with minimal or no nuclear material, but it is no longer adequate for Saudi Arabia's expanding nuclear program," Kelsey Davenport, director of Non-proliferation Policy at the Arms Control Association, told Middle East Eye.
Ms. Davenport warned that "given these factors, there are legitimate reasons to be concerned that Saudi Arabia is seeking to develop the technical capabilities that would allow Riyadh to quickly pursue nuclear weapons if the political decision were made to do so."
Iran continues efforts to surround Israel with missiles and hostile forces - By Yaakov Lappin -
Despite U.S. sanctions cracking down on its economy, Iran isn't giving up its hegemonic aspirations, and is now focused on using Iraq for its purposes.
Iran is facing severe economic pressure due to U.S. sanctions, yet recent reports indicate that the Islamic Republic is still investing significant resources in building up attack capabilities throughout the Middle East, with a new focus on Iraq.
According to the London-based Arabic daily Asharq Al-Awsat, Israel struck two Iranian military sites this month in Iraq. The report, citing Western diplomatic sources, said Israeli stealth F-35 jets hit an Iranian rocket depot northeast of Baghdad on July 19, and on July 28, a base in Iraq that lies just 80 kilometers from the Iranian border in an airstrike. That base reportedly contained a shipment of Iranian ballistic missiles, as well as Iranian "advisers," the report stated.
Iran's apparent shift to Iraq comes after an intensive Iranian push in recent years to turn Syria into a missile, drone and terrorist launchpad against Israel. That attempt ran into a brick wall, in the form of hundreds of Israeli airstrikes that largely prevented the rise of an Iranian war machine in Syria. Iran already established a forward division in Lebanon in the form of Hezbollah, and Israel has no intention of allowing Iran to replicate that success in Syria.
Iran appears to have responded to Israel's intelligence superiority by repositioning itself in Iraq. If the latest reports are true, Israel is signaling that it is prepared to use the same effective combination of intelligence and precision firepower to thwart Iranian threats as they form in Iraq, just like it did in Syria.
In addition, it seems that the shadow war between Tehran and Jerusalem in Syria is far from over. Last week, Israeli jets reportedly struck a target in southern Syria's Tel al-Hara, apparently to stop Iranian-backed forces from seizing control of a strategically important hill that can be used to gather intelligence on Israel.
Reports also surfaced last week of a Hezbollah operative-a Syrian-Druze resident of the village of Khadr, near the Israeli border-being killed after his car exploded as it drove in south Syria.
And on Sunday, rebel media sources in Syria released images of smoke rising from a Hezbollah headquarters building north of Damascus in what could be an additional strike.
Israel's "War Between Wars"-the low-profile campaign designed to stop Iran from setting up attack and weapons bases in Syria and beyond-seems to remain highly active. It is a direct response to Iran's own intensive attempts to build up threats against Israel, including the attempt to flood Syria with missile factories, rocket launchers, drone bases and terror cells.
Iran has failed to achieve many of its central goals in Syria, so the Iranian Quds Force, led by the notorious Qassem Soleimani, looks determined to set up some of the missile bases on Iraqi soil instead.
From a practical perspective, Iran's commitment to expanding its forces around the region while its economy crumbles makes little sense. But Iran's fundamentalist Shi'ite ideology and hegemonic ambitions have fused to keep this effort going.
Iran working to construct land bridge to Mediterranean
In this context, reports that a new border crossing that links Syria to Iraq is set to open deserves special attention.
According to a July 25 report published by the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, preparations are underway to open the Albukamal border crossing in the coming two months.
The Meir Amit Center identified why this crossing is critical to Iran's ambitions, noting that it is "vital for the land bridge Iran seeks to construct between its territory and the Mediterranean Sea. The route allows Iran to send forces, supplies and weapons through Iraq to Syria and from there to Lebanon. It can be assumed that Iran is of the opinion that the land bridge will enable it to reduce its dependence on risky aerial and naval routes. The new crossing, when it opens, will enable larger numbers of vehicles to enter Syria and make it easier to preserve secrecy."
In June 2018, reports surfaced of unidentified planes striking Iranian-backed militias in the Syrian border town of Albukamal, resulting in many casualties.
With the new border crossing under construction, it seems difficult to believe that Israel would allow Iran to create its long-desired land bridge.
The Meir Amit Center assessed that "it is likely that the new crossing is being constructed with Iranian aid, and possibly with Iranian involvement. In addition, Iran participates in securing the area between Albukamal in Syria and al-Qa'im in Iraq by using Shi'ite militias deployed permanently in the region."
Hezbollah and Shi'ite militias backed by Iran seized Albukamal in November 2018, remaining active on both sides of the Syrian-Iraqi border.
It seems unreasonable to believe that after putting a dent in Iran's scheme to flood Syria and Lebanon with arms by trafficking them in planes, Israel would simply agree to those same arms entering the area by road.
Ultimately, it is the Israeli Air Force that acts as Israel's "police force" in the skies of the Middle East, enforcing Jerusalem's red lines against Iranian entrenchment.
To be able to achieve this, its personnel must function in a very high operational tempo and remain with a finger on the pulse of the rapidly changing geopolitical reality. The challenge is enormous.
Nevertheless, the IAF has been highly successful in waging Israel's active defense campaign as it maneuvers in the most dangerous and sensitive regions in the world. Syria alone has the most densely crowded air-defense network on the globe, and is also the scene of intense Russian military activity.
Operating largely behind the scenes, the IAF has been able to protect Israel's vital security interests, roll back Iran's presence, and so far, delay the outbreak of the next major war.
Two attacks on two borders in one day: Is the IDF ready for war on 3 fronts? - by Anna Ahronheim -
What's the connection? Iran, Iran, Iran.
Two attacks on two borders in less than 24 hours. One targeted IDF troops stationed along Gaza, while another targeted Hezbollah positions in Syria's Golan Heights. Two incidents, miles apart. Just a small indication of the major challenge Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi faces in the next war.
Before dawn on Thursday, hours after the army completed the largest drill since Operation Protective Edge five years ago, a Hamas terrorist armed with grenades and a Kalashnikov infiltrated into southern Israel near the community of Kissufim and injured an officer and two soldiers before being killed by IDF reinforcements.
Several hours later, Israel was accused of striking a Syrian Arab Army position in al-Bariqa west of Queintra on the Golan Heights.
What's the connection?
Iran, Iran, Iran.
With fronts ripe for conflict to break out at any moment, the IDF's ability to operate effectively on multiple fronts simultaneously is crucial for Israel to deal with the region's unpredictable and explosive nature.
According to a report in Haaretz, Iran and Hamas have agreed to open a southern front should a war break out in the North. Israeli officials have warned that any northern war will not be confined to one border, but rather both the Lebanese and Syrian border.
That means war on three fronts.
The IDF, which has put Gaza as a top priority, is concerned that should a war break out in both the North and South, the military's air defense might not be as available, leaving whole communities and cities vulnerable to rocket fire.
Israel has accused Iran of growing involvement in Gaza, both financially and militarily.
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has boasted about his close ties to Hezbollah and Iran, including with Maj.-Gen. Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force. Hamas delegations have visited Tehran and met with Solemani and other senior Iranian officials following his appointment.
Despite facing its own economic crises, the Islamic Republic has increased its funding to Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) to the tune of $100 million, to have more influence in Gaza. And in the West Bank, Israeli officials foiled around 130 Hamas terror cells in 2018 alone, up from the 40 foiled the previous year.
While the past few months have been "relatively" quiet in southern Israel, tensions with Gaza have significantly risen over the past year of weekly riots and occasional rounds of conflict, with thousands of rockets and mortars being fired at Israeli communities.
The IDF, in return, has struck hundreds of targets belonging to Hamas and PIJ (a group fully subservient to Iran) throughout the Strip.
Hamas, which itself is under intense public pressure due to the humanitarian situation in its territory, knows it cannot militarily survive another conflict with the IDF. But the army knows that another confrontation in Gaza, despite it being more prepared than before, will not end with it being a clear victor.
On top of that, the army is not too keen on another military operation in Gaza until the upgraded barrier to remove the threat of terror tunnels is completed, which is expected to be done by next summer.
And as Israel keeps its eyes warily on Hezbollah and Iran's entrenchment in the Syrian Golan Heights, it is also looking toward Iraq. Iran is believed to have transferred ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel to terrorist groups there.
Despite Israel's missile defense capabilities being at an all-time high after successful trials of the Arrow 3 over Alaska this week, defense officials believe the advanced technological capabilities coupled with intensive firepower by the country's enemies - be it from the South or North - will lead to unprecedented damage and fatalities.
Israel fought simultaneously in Lebanon and Gaza in 2006. But 12 years later Israel's enemies have changed, and their military capabilities have increased tremendously.
"I get the impression that there is very high readiness for a possible campaign in Gaza," Kochavi said during the four-day exercise this past week. "We will continue preparing, on the assumption that a conflict could erupt any day."
The army under Kochavi needs to be ready: while the most imminent threat for war is on the southern front, the risk of a military confrontation in the northern arena, from three different countries at the same time, is not farfetched.
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