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Friday, February 5, 2021
Food Inflation
Food Inflation – Todd Strandberg - https://www.raptureready.com/category/nearing-midnight/
There has been a huge rise in nearly all grain prices over the past year. The price for Soybeans started 2020 at around $8.50 per bushel. It now trades around $14.00 perbushel. Corn prices started 2020 at around $3.80 per bushel. It now trades around $4.80 per bushel. With both of these grains in thousands of food products, there is going to be a huge rise in food inflation.
For many decades there has been a race between the birth rate and our ability to produce more food to feed a hungry global population. In the 1940s, a yield of 40 bushelsper acre was the average for corn crops. In 2020 farmers managed to get to a record corn yield estimate of 181.8 bushels per acre.
In the past few years, corn crops have suffered an endless series of bad luck events that lowered yields. The past three years that we have completed growing records wereall years of decline. The 2020 season is still being counted.
2017 -3.56 %
2018 -1.84 %
2019 -5.02 %
When the final numbers come in for 2020, they will not be good. Last year we had a drought in the western plain states and a massive windstorm over Eastern Iowa and centralIllinois.
Grain production will be down in South Africa. This area of the world received lower yields because of too much rain that flooded fields.
In South America there was a lack of rainfall. Soybean production in top-producer Brazil was pegged at 133.00 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous outlook. Brazil’scorn harvest was seen at 109.00 million tonnes. In Argentina, where farmers have struggled with drought throughout the growing season, USDA predicted a soybean harvest of 48.00 million tonnes and a corn harvest of 47.50 million tonnes. The crop yield was sobad in Brazil and Argentina that the government lowered the ability of exporters to send grain outside the country.
Russia is raising a previously announced export tax on the grain from the currently planned 25 euros ($30) per tonne to 50 euros ($60) per ton. Russia, one of the world’slargest wheat exporters, is trying to stabilize domestic food prices with the wheat export levy as well as a grain export quota and a series of other measures after President Vladimir Putin criticized the impact of excessive inflation.
China has had a very bad year in the 2020 growing season. There were drought conditions in the north, heavy floods in the central area of the nation, and the south had grain-munchingbugs in various regions of the country. Because China is so secretive about production numbers, it’s hard to get the true picture of Chinese food needs.
In 2019 China had entered into a food war with the U.S, so it reduced grain imports to punish Washington. In 2019 China only used 67% of its annual quota for corn and one-thirdof its quota for wheat.
Things must be at dire levels in China because that nation’s grain imports soared to record highs in 2020. China bought a record 11.3 million tonnes of imported corn lastyear, according to General Administration of Customs data, exceeding the annual quota – which was set at 7.2 million tonnes. China also imported a record 8.38 million tonnes of wheat.
The list below shows a year over year increase in China’s imports of several key commodities:
Corn 135.7%
Wheat 140.2%
Barley 36.3%
orghum 478.6%
Pork 108.3%
Sugar 55.5%
Another sign that the food situation in China must be very bleak is China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs approved two genetically modified corn varieties fromBayer AG and Syngenta AG for import. The corn strains, MON87411 and MZIR098, are approved for imports for five years starting December 2020. China has also approved several locally produced genetically modified corn varieties.
Several nations have become net imports of large amounts of grain. India’s boom population is soon to become a massive drain on global grain reserves. Last year Colombiamade a very odd purchase of 108,000 metric tons of corn. When you realize that France is the only nation in Europe that could feed its own people, you can see how quickly the world can get into trouble.
It is very unusual to have so many grain-growing regions all having a production problem at the same time. In 2021 there is going to be a massive effort to make up for thelosses by vastly increasing acreage. If we have good weather, we will have a bumper crop, and grain prices will stabilize.
Last year Beijing sent out a small army of grain buyers to purchase huge amounts of grain to fulfill China’s massive grain needs. This may be the year that they are sentback home empty-handed. Since bad luck has become a permanent fixture in food production, I can only conclude that these events are the lead-up to the great famine that will play out during the tribulation.
“And when he had opened the third seal, I heard the third beast say, Come and see. And I beheld, and lo a black horse; and he that sat on him had a pair of balances in hishand. And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and
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