2015 - A Look Ahead - Dr. Steve Elwart - http://www.khouse.org/enews_article/2015/2341
If 2014 proved anything, it should how linear think can be very wrong. What happened last year may not portend what will happen in the following year.
In the last issue we looked at what happened in 2014 with an eye toward what may happen in the future. Many in the intelligence community who try to strictly interpolate future events from the past are destined for failure. Driving down the road using the rear-view mirror almost always results in a wreck.
In 2013, few would have predicted that Russia would risk a regional war by taking over Crimea, ISIS would break away from Al-Qaeda and become an even greater threat than their parent organization, that the United States would be on the same side as Al-Qaeda and start bombing Syria and Iraq while approaching a nuclear deal with Iran, they would initiate diplomatic relations with Cuba or that Ebola would become a scourge in three west African countries and (with the help of 24-hour news media) bring panic to the entire world.
That being said, let's take a look at some general trends and see what trends we need to watch to see how they unfold. While specifics are hard to predict, large trends can be surmised.
The threat of ISIS will begin to diminish
ISIS brought into sharp focus the dangers of radical Islam and actually became an embarrassment to other Muslim countries. Just when world was forgetting what the Taliban did to Afghanistan when it instituted Sharia Law into that country, ISIS again showed the world how brutal Sharia can be.
For the first part of the year, the major media and progressive groups were largely silent while ISIS conducted atrocities on Muslim women and children in general and Christians of all stripes, their capture of Mosul showed the media and the world that they could no longer be ignored nor defended.
The United States have now moved from "leading from behind" to active participation in the conflict. In 2015, the United States and its allies will continue to increase the number of "advisors" on the ground in Baghdad while upgrading "coordination" with Iran in preparation for an eventual push into Mosul, probably in the summer. While the assault on ISIS will probably result in removing ISIS from major areas of the Iraq, it will not completely defeat the group.
ISIS will continue to operate, but in a lower profile and will probably shift its focus from trying to capture countries in its dreamed-of caliphate to sending out calls for more isolated terror attacks around the world.
Possible Egyptian collapse
Intelligence analysts are looking at Egypt with an eye on how events in that country will affect the Nation of Israel. They believe that 2015 will be a decisive one for the Egyptian regime.
The colonel noted that Egypt has a population of 87 million, with a baby born every 16 seconds, and these people want to see their personal situation improve. If they don't see results, Egypt may be in for yet another coup.
Roital pointed out that Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf states present the only possible hope for the regime to survive, but refused to confirm whether these regimes are willing to agree to cover the entirety of Egypt's financial deficit.
Preserving the military rule in Egypt is in Israel's interest because this will guarantee that Egypt continues to respect the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty, which constitutes a key pillar of Israel's national security.
It is important to continue monitoring the developments that take place in Egypt - including the security situation and the economic changes - because they have implications for Israel one way or another.
The world is also eyeing the Muslim Brotherhood, because their behavior and organizational capabilities will play a decisive role in the country.
Israel
Israel will continue to be a country "living on the edge." With the rise of anti-Semitism around the world, it is evident that there must be a land for Jews; a place of refuge to go to seek a normal life. A recent wave of immigrants from France emphasizes the importance of Israel as a refuge to Jews around the world.
Without Israel, where would Jews go?
Many in Israel realize the obvious, that Israel has been established in the middle of the Arab world and it is generally considered an unwelcome neighbor. Most believe this condition will never really change.
When asked, one leading Israeli politician said it is so difficult to reach an agreement with the Palestinians, he said, "Giving up land won't solve the problem. We gave up Sinai, we gave up Gaza, and we are willing to give up most of the land we won in the 1967 war." Many Israelis realize that land isn't the issue; it is the very existence of Israel.
Besides being a Jewish country in an Arab region, Israel itself is not a simple place. Of its eight million people there are two million Arab-Israelis, Christians and Muslims who live, work and vote in the country. It is mostly a secular state with only about 15% of the Jewish population being observant. The rest are secular, as are most Jews in the United States.
Israel was founded as a socialist country and a good part of its highly regulated framework endures, particularly in financial services. The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange is a good example of excessive regulation; it causes many promising Israeli high tech companies to go directly to the NASDAQ rather than listing at home. Unions are also important but both regulation and union influence have been eroding for some time. Early in Israel's modern history, it was highly dependent on financial support from the United States, but views itself as financially independent now, having no external debt and substantial foreign exchange reserves. The rapidly growing parts of the economy are in areas established in the last two decades - energy and technology. Israel has discovered huge natural gas reserves and its technology sector has thrived, driven by innovations that began in the 1980s with the huge influx of highly educated Russian immigrants.
The military also played an important role in Israel's technological development as it created its sophisticated defense system. So did the country's universities. In the longer term the hope is that electricity and motorized transportation would be based on natural gas. The resource could also be liquefied and shipped to parts of Europe. Israel is also the world leader in water treatment.
This hope may be dashed by the recent decision by the decision Israel's Antitrust Commissioner David Gilo to declare a recent gas deal by Noble Energy and Israel's Delek Group a cartel.
Even though the conflict with Gaza slowed the economy down, Israel is expected to be favorable for next year.
Israel would benefit from an end to the conflicts with its neighbors. Every American president has had peace in the Middle East as one of his objectives, most of the time toward the end of their respective administration.
Current efforts will probably be just as fruitless because of the fact that the Arab world generally believes Israel should not even exist. The Arab states believe that the Jews should leave the area and "go back where they came from". They have not come to terms with the fact that Israel is back in the land and will never leave it.
The Israelis believe that they have a Biblical, historical, legal and earned right to be there.
Those in Israel who still hold out hope for a two-state solution at some point in the future are going against historical precedent. The hope is that the Palestinians would acknowledge Israel's right to exist and, in return, monetary compensation would be offered in exchange for eliminating the "right of return" for former Arab residents and Israeli land would be exchanged for the West Bank settlements.
There have been countless attempts in negotiating this, the most recent one being John Kerry's latest attempts. Still, there seems to be no common ground. In fact, it seems as if both sides have become more entrenched in their positions over time. The Palestinians now have the extremists in Hamas to deal with and the Israelis have their own set of hard liners.
No nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran
Iran probably won't go all the way on a nuclear deal, while the P5+1 (the five countries on the UN Security Council plus Germany) won't agree to Iran's requirement of a 10-year sunset clause and an insistence on plutonium reprocessing rights.
Thus, this foreign policy initiative, like the Mid-East deal, will most likely go down in flames. This is likely one reason for the move to extend diplomatic relations with Cuba.
As small as it is, it is a rare foreign policy win for the Obama Administration.
Libya Intervention
The spread of ISIS into Libya, the collapse of any central authority, the presence of two competing governments, numerous Islamic groups, a renegade general, and the proliferation of weapons from the country to terrorist hotspots around the world will lead to foreign troops again being deployed to the country.
Egypt and the UAE have already carried out airstrikes against Islamist targets in Libya. As the political situation continues to deteriorate and the chaos from Libya threatens the stability of neighboring countries like Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria, and Niger, outside powers will be convinced that they have to act.
Most likely, Egypt and the UAE will continue carrying out aerial operations. Europe could also become involved in military efforts in Libya as any ongoing chaos in Libya is not too far removed from the shores of southern Europe.
What happens in Libya can have a direct impact on Egypt since jihadists in the country would like nothing better than to export their revolution to Egypt.
As the countries of the "Arab Spring" turn jihadist, they pose a greater threat to Israel and their way of life.
Another Russian-linked aviation disaster could rock the world next year.
Russia
Russia will continue to be very aggressive towards other countries. While it has expanded westward about as far as it can go in grabbing territory without NATO actively responding, it will continue take an aggressive stance towards other countries especially in protecting both its old and newly acquired territories.
One area this will manifest itself is in civilian aviation.
The crash of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was uniquely horrific. But Russia and its proxies nearly brought down civilian aircraft at other points in 2014 and could easily do so next year.
Last March, a Russian military plane nearly collided with a Swedish commercial jet carrying 132 passengers. Disaster "were apparently avoided thanks only to good visibility and the alertness of the passenger plane pilots," according to a European Leadership Network report on the "dangerous brinkmanship" between Russia and the West.
Another close call came in early December, again involving a Swedish passenger plane and a Russian aircraft that had turned off its transponders - the devices by which planes announce their location in order to avoid exactly these sorts of disasters.
On the military side, NATO member states have planes to intercept Russian incursions three times more frequently in 2014 than in the year prior. Each confrontation had its own small window for a potential disaster with wide political and security implications.
The more confrontations like this over European skies, the greater a chance for another MH17 disaster in the coming year.
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