Iraq's Coming Apocalypse - By Daniel Pipes - http://www.breakingisraelnews.com/63902/iraqs-coming-apocalypse-opinion/#QbZrJtFPpTEqhIJ0.97
No, it's not ISIS or rampaging Shi'i militias. It's the Mosul Dam, Iraq's largest, and its possible collapse, perhaps leading to millions of deaths. Those in the know worry catastrophe could strike this spring, as snows melt and build an uncontrollable water pressure.
Hastily built in wartime for the dictator Saddam Hussein by a German-Italian consortium, the Mosul Dam was located where it is because one of Hussein's cronies came from the area and used his pull, despite the fact that engineers knew from the start that its porous gypsum base could not sustain such a huge structure.
What was then called the Saddam Dam opened in 1984 and within two years needed constant grouting, that is, day and night infusions of microfine cement, lots of it - 200 million pounds over the decades - to keep it from collapsing. The grouting keeps the foundational problem from worsening but does not solve it.
The years went by; fortunately, there was no disaster on the American watch. Then, during a fateful ten-day period, August 7-17, 2014, the Islamic State (ISIS) seized control of the dam. While the group neither sabotaged nor blew up the structure, grouting stopped for six weeks and the whole repair regime - especially the skilled workers and the supply of cement - henceforth became less consistent.
As a result, the dam has steadily weakened over the past 19 months, to the point that experts worry that a surge of spring waters will overwhelm it and cause its collapse. That the dam's two emergency floodgates are broken and cannot be opened to relieve intense pressure renders the situation the more fraught.
The consequences of a collapse are terrifying: A wall of water 45-70 feet high would reach Mosul, a city of some one million inhabitants, in about four hours. Then the flood wave would roll down the Tigris River valley to other cities, including the capital Baghdad, before dispersing in a wide flood. A huge number of immediate casualties would be followed by drought, disease, lack of electricity, chaos, and crime, ensuring biblical-level miseries and fatalities.
For years, quiet grouting and blithe assurances kept the precariousness of the Mosul Dam obscure. But heightened alarms coming from the U.S. government since the start of 2016, relying primarily on U.S. Army Corps of Engineers estimates, appear finally to have awakened Iraqis to the dangers they face. The U.S. embassy in Baghdad has even issued a highly unusual "Mosul Dam Preparedness Fact Sheet" with advice (in English, alas) on evacuation steps, educational needs, and relief efforts.
In contrast, the Iraqi government issues a stream of dishonest assurances that there's no problem. Mohsen al-Shimari, Iraq's minister for Water Resources and official in charge of the dam, says "The danger is not imminent, it's far off. The danger is 1 in 1,000" (itself, an unacceptable risk). Or he insists that Mosul Dam is in "no greater" danger than other dams. At other times he actually claims "there is no problem in the dam that may lead to its collapse." Note the inconsistency, itself a sign of duplicity.
In keeping with this irresponsible, even criminal nonchalance, Iraqi authorities have done next to nothing to prepare for a possible collapse. Yes, they claim that a contingency plan exists, but no one has seen it, much less learned its details, so what use can it have in time of crisis? Yes, they signed a $300 million deal with Trevi, an Italian company, to repair and maintain the Dam, but this is a Band-Aid fix, not a long-term solution.
To make matters worse, the dam's most vulnerable city, Mosul, labors under the rule of the apocalyptic Islamic State, whose disregard for human life and extreme hostility toward the outside world negates both crisis planning and international assistance. But there is a silver lining here; ISIS' monstrous rule has caused Mosul's population to decline from 2½ million two years ago to about 1 million now, thereby reducing the number of potential casualties there.
Assuming the dam survives this year's snow melt, only one long-term solution exists: to complete the Badush Dam downstream from the Mosul Dam that would mitigate the consequences of a collapse. Started soon after the grouting began in 1986 but halted in 1990, this ancillary dam will cost US$10 billion that the Iraqi government cannot afford. But it must be the country's highest priority.
The Push to Pressure Israel Intensifies Amid Violence - By Roger Aronoff -
http://www.breakingisraelnews.com/63597/the-push-to-pressure-israel-intensifies-amid-violence-opinion/#24cXg83TLJba7UDb.97
It might have taken a terrorist attack that included the death of an American, about a mile away from Vice President Joe Biden's meeting in Jaffa, Israel, this week, to wake up Americans to the ongoing terrorist wave that has been sweeping Israel for months. The victim was Taylor Force, a 29-year-old Iraq and Afghanistan veteran, killed by an Islamic terrorist. Force's wife was among 10 others stabbed by the same Palestinian terrorist, and she is in critical condition.
The futility of Biden's last ditch effort to help give President Obama an additional notch on his legacy belt was underscored by the event, especially since the administration has sought to undermine Israel on several key issues, including the BDS (boycott, divestment, and sanctions) movement.
Through the use of U.S. Customs and Border Control, the Obama administration recently further politicized trade with Israel by requiring that imports from the West Bank be labeled as being from that area rather than from Israel, reported The National Interest in February.
"The penalty states that products must no longer be labeled 'Made in Israel,' because the United States views the West Bank as territory illegitimately controlled by Israel," report Asaf Romirowsky and Benjamin Weinthal. In other words, the Obama administration is playing politics with trade, and with Israel's legitimacy.
While members of the BDS movement often liken Israel to an apartheid state, it is interesting that one of Israel's highest ranking soldiers is a Muslim. Yet pop culture shows continue to demonize the Israelis. According to the Zionist Organization of America, the ABC TV show Quantico "falsely claimed in Episode 4 that Israel bombed the Gaza greenhouses, when, in fact, Israel gave these multi-million dollar greenhouses to Gaza's Arabs, and Palestinian Arabs looted and destroyed the greenhouses." It also portrays the Israel Defense Forces as "war criminals." Those are just two of many examples from this show that demonizes Israel and its people. With such misinformation as part of the common culture, it is not surprising that some Americans have called for divestment. Divestment is often defined as the opposite of investment, in this case done for political purposes.
"From the beginning of Obama's time in office his administration demanded that Israel halt settlement activity," write Romirowsky and Weinthal, arguing that President Obama assumes that solving the Israeli-Palestinian debate would resolve Middle Eastern tensions. Of course, the informal arrangement with Iran, known as the Iran deal, is supposed to bring about peace, too-ostensibly eliminating Iran's ability to construct nuclear weapons.
As we have reported, the unsigned Iran deal is a debacle and farce that will empower Iran to conduct terror throughout the Middle East. This, in reality, is President Obama's foreign policy legacy. In fact, just this week it was revealed that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is no longer allowed to disclose any possible Iranian violations of the so-called agreement. As a result, Fred Fleitz of the Center for Security Policy argued that "This is more evidence that the nuclear deal with Iran is a fraud. U.S. officials gave away everything to get this legacy agreement for President Obama that will not stop Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons."
If you recall, the agreement between the IAEA and Iran was the one agreement in this whole arrangement that was supposedly signed, and we were told at the time that Secretary John Kerry and President Obama weren't even allowed to see it. Now we understand why we were told that. Also this week, Iran has threatened to walk away from the "deal," now that they've received their $100-plus billion dollars. That's all they were ever looking for. They never had any intention of giving up their nuclear weapons program, a program they never acknowledged having in the first place.
When Congress signed into law the Trade Facilitation and Enforcement Act, it expressly outlined that American government policy would be against the BDS movement, including against sanctions on the territories it controls. Naturally, according to The New York Sun, President Obama claimed that the law was contrary to "longstanding bipartisan United States policy."
"Somehow Mr. Obama, in his reference to 'longstanding bipartisan policy,' forgot to mention the vote in the Congress against boycotts and sanctions against the territories was a bipartisan tally," reports The New York Sun. "But when he inked the measure, he put out a memorably obnoxious signing statement. He derided the law he'd just signed as 'conflating' Israel and Israeli-controlled territories and suggested he might defy it," said the Sun editorial. The law, in fact, didn't conflate the two.
While there is longstanding bipartisan Congressional support for Israel, there has been little support for this long-time ally coming from President Obama. Instead, he and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have had an acrimonious relationship, at best. Daniel Greenfield has recounted much of the acrimony in this piece for FrontPageMag, which argues that Obama's plans for his final year in office are designed to put unprecedented pressure on Israel, and would be "BDS's biggest gift."
Greenfield writes that "Obama is planning to deal a final blow to Israel," possibly through a UN resolution that "would amount to an 800-pound thumb on the scale of the peace process by giving the PLO everything it wants, giving Israel nothing..."
The New York Times reports, with a different emphasis, that President Obama wishes to leave a legacy framework for Israeli-Palestinian peace. Such a framework would undoubtedly favor the Palestinians. The Times reports that President Obama hopes to "enshrine the proposals Secretary of State John Kerry made during his last failed effort at peacemaking in 2014," and that President Obama is frustrated "about his failure in the peace process and its impact on his legacy."
Each article the mainstream media pens discussing President Obama's legacy contains a great deal of spin-and omits important details. Back in 2014 Kerry sought the input of Israel's detractors, including Qatar, for a peace deal with the Palestinians.
As we wrote in August 2014, "the Kerry proposal speaks in broad language about 'ending all hostilities' and addressing 'all security issues.'" However, "No mention is made of Hamas' underground tunnels, or underground attacks at all."
Newsweek's Yardena Schwartz reported on March 8 that "Hamas is Tunneling its Way Into Israel, Again." Schwartz writes of Israelis who hear construction underneath their homes, knowing that these tunnels will eventually bring death and destruction.
"Hamas has started bragging publicly about its ability to reach into Israel," Schwartz reports, continuing, "an Israeli intelligence source tells Newsweek that more than 10 tunnels already do, and that Israel has not yet pinpointed the exact locations."
"The re-emergence of tunnels as a weapon of war has coincided with a series of attacks by individual Palestinians on Israelis in Jerusalem, the West Bank and Tel Aviv," writes Schwartz.
"This latest Palestinian uprising, which began in October, has resulted in the deaths of 29 Israelis, three foreign nationals and 170 Palestinians-roughly two-thirds of them while attacking Israelis and the rest during clashes with Israeli soldiers, according to the army."
Palestinians continue to zealously shed the blood of Israelis and refuse to recognize the state of Israel. Any framework for peace that President Obama creates must first require that the Palestinians recognize Israel's right to exist, or there can be no peace. But the Palestinians have rejected offers to have their own state, side-by-side with Israel, three times since the year 2000. As we've reported in the past, President Obama's heavy handed tactics toward Israel have actually made a deal between Israel and the Palestinians much less likely in the foreseeable future.
"Iran's ally in Gaza, the Palestinian Authority, encourages the unyielding knife attacks against Israelis by Palestinians," writes Pete Hoekstra for The Sacramento Bee. Hoekstra is a former chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, and now with the Investigative Project on Terrorism and a member of the Citizens' Commission on Benghazi. "Fatah, the political party of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas," writes Hoekstra, "recently called for killing all Israelis throughout the country-'in all their neighborhoods'-in a music video broadcast on the Fatah-run Awdah TV channel."
Judicial Watch reports that "the Obama administration scrubbed [Homeland Security's] 'Terrorist Screening Database' in order to protect what it considered the civil rights of suspected Islamic terrorist groups." These "new Homeland Security documents confirm the modification of nearly 1,000 terrorist suspect reports," said Judicial Watch.
President Obama's foreign policy legacy will likely not be as the architect of a framework to bring about peace between Israel and Palestine. Instead, it will be a legacy of chaos in Libya, a nuclear Iran, Islamic State resurgence, and a possible arms race in the Middle East. But the complicit media are more interested in preserving President Obama's legacy than informing its readers about the chaos that legacy has wrought.
Palestinians plan to ramp up terror to car bombs - http://www.debka.com/article/25294/Elevated-security-for-Jerusalem-Marathon-Alert-for-Palestinian-car-bombs-
Extra soldiers, police and other security personnel are to be drafted in to secure the annual Jerusalem marathon taking place next Friday (March 18). Intelligence authorities are preparing in case Palestinian terrorists use the event for a another surge of violence after hitting three Israeli towns during US Vice President Joe Biden's two-day visit last week.
Israeli security authorities are on the lookout for drive-by shootings from moving cars or even the first Palestinian car bombings.
So far, 5,300 runners have registered for the Jerusalem Marathon, which covers a 42-km course through the streets of the capital, Almost half are visitors from nine countries.
The current Palestinian "intifada" has escalated constantly since it erupted last September. Of late, the knifings, rocks and car attacks on pedestrians have been ramped up to gunfire and explosive devices. debkafile's counterterrorism sources disclose that Palestinian terror planners are said to be gearing up for their first car bombings in Israel's main cities.
Israeli security and the Shin Bet domestic intelligence service are in a race against time to hunt down and forestall these outrages. An intensive effort is underway to nip in the bud the next shooting and firebomb attacks, by disabling the clandestine Palestinian workshops that are producing weapons for terrorist attacks, especially Karl Gustav automatic machine guns.
Gangs of two or three shooters are being recruited for automatic gun shootings coupled with lobbed firebombs.
The hunt is also on for the agents distributing these guns around Palestinian towns.
Late last week, a black-glad, masked terrorist standing by the roadside near Othniel threw a pipe bomb at an Israel car as it drove past. The car was rocked by the blast but no one was hurt.
The next day, Saturday March 12, the IDF placed under lockdown the Palestinian village of Beit Ur A-Tachta, where two drive-by gunmen took refuge after shooting up a checkpoint on Rte 443 near Jerusalem and injuring two soldiers - neither seriously, The village overlooks the key highway.
This attack was especially provoking as it happened on a stretch of Rte 443 that is heavily patrolled by soldiers and monitored by high-grade devices. Yet the gunmen managed a shooting attack and then got clean away.
Indeed, the last two attacks, which looked like the opening shoots of the next ramped-up stage of Palestinian terror, had this in common: Both perpetrators managed to escape. That alone bespoke the involvement of professional terrorists, in contrast to the lone knifemen who are mostly shot dead on the spot or otherwise neutralized by security personnel nearby.
Sunday, March 13, it was revealed that on March 1, an IDF paratroop unit raided and demolished clandestine workshops in Nablus that were turning out improvised Karl Gustav automatic machine guns; on March 11, 15 of these homemade firearms were found hidden at Yaabed, a village near Jenin.
debkafile's military sources report that this was the first serious IDF-cum-Shin Bet operation to cut down Palestinian arms and explosives manufacturing in Judea and Samaria.
Nablus and Yaabed were just the tip of the iceberg. This illicit munitions industry has been thriving during years of Israeli neglect. Nablus was generally known to be the hub of the illegal production of homemade Karl Gustav automatic machineguns - not just for Palestinian terrorists but also for sale to Israeli Arabs across the Green Line. This extended market came to light on March 1 last year, when an Israeli Arab shot up a caf� on Dizengoff St, Tel Aviv, murdering murdered two Israelis.
Israel demands world powers punish Iran for missile tests - http://news.yahoo.com/israel-demands-world-powers-punish-iran-missile-tests-103415654.html
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday called on world powers to punish Iran after the country test-fired two ballistic missiles emblazoned with the phrase "Israel must be wiped out" in Hebrew.
Netanyahu said he instructed Israel's Foreign Ministry to direct the demand to the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany - the countries that signed the deal lifting sanctions on Iran in exchange for Tehran curbing its nuclear program.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard test-launched the ballistic missiles last week, the latest in a series of recent tests aimed at demonstrating Iran's intentions to push ahead with its missile program after scaling back its nuclear program under the deal reached last year.
Following last week's missile launches, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called on Iran to "act with moderation," and the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations said the launches were "provocative and destabilizing."
Iran's Foreign Ministry said the missile tests do not violate Iran's nuclear deal with world powers or U.N. Security Council resolutions. A Security Council resolution last year removing sanctions called on Iran not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to deliver a nuclear weapon.
The Israeli leader said world powers had pledged to prevent Iran from such violations. Speaking ahead of his weekly Cabinet meeting, Netanyahu said his demand for punitive action against Iran was "important as a test of the major powers' determination to enforce the nuclear agreement with Iran and, of course, we expect their answers."
Israel won't allow Iran, Hezbollah on Syrian border, Rivlin tells Putin - http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-wont-allow-iran-hezbollah-on-syrian-border-rivlin-tells-putin/
Israeli president tells Russian counterpart enemies' presence in Golan Heights is a red line, backs return of UN peacekeepers
Israel will not allow Iran and Hezbollah to establish a foothold on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights, President Reuven Rivlin told his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin Wednesday night at a meeting in Moscow.
According to Channel 2 news, the Israeli head of state conveyed the message from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the presence of such Israeli enemies along the chaotic Syrian border was a red line for the Jewish state.
Rivlin also reportedly told Putin Israel was interested in United Nations peacekeepers resuming their mission along the border between the nations, which was largely abandoned as the Syrian civil war spiraled out of control.
The two also discussed Russia's troop pullout from Syria and continued coordination between Jerusalem and Moscow regarding military activities along the Syrian front.
The meeting was described as a positive one.
"Russia's interests in Syria are clear to us," an unnamed top Israeli official told Haaretz. "President Putin spoke of his wishes and plans clearly and president Rivlin will pass them on to the prime minister."
Channel 2 reported that Rivlin left the meeting encouraged. He then made phone calls to Netanyahu, Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon and IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot.
Putin said Netanyahu would also visit soon for regional security and trade talks.
Putin said Russia and Israel "have a large number of questions to discuss linked with the development of bilateral trade and economic relations and questions of the region's security," according to Russian reports. "I hope that we'll be able to discuss them in the short run with the Israeli prime minister with whom we have made arrangements for a meeting," he added.
Regarding a future Putin-Netanyahu confab, an Israeli official told The Times of Israel that "over the last few months we had regular contact with the Russians at the highest level, and that will continue." The official assumed that there will be a meeting sometime soon.
Rivlin was the first foreign leader to meet with Putin since news of Russia's surprise pullout from Syria, announced Monday.
The two leaders hailed ties between Russia and Israel in a joint press conference ahead of their meeting.
"The ties between our countries are based on friendship and mutual understanding," Putin said. "We spoke on a variety of issues during our meeting, and we also spoke by phone with the prime minister and agreed to revisit these topics again."
Putin noted Israel's sizable Russian minority, and hailed the growing tourism between the two countries.
In his remarks, Rivlin told Putin the Jews would never forget how Russia saved them in World War II, adding that "many Holocaust survivors all over the world remember being liberated by the Red Army."
"Today, we also both face terror and fundamentalism," Rivlin said, and urged greater bilateral cooperation between the two countries in various areas.
On Tuesday, Rivlin said he intended to discuss the implications of Russia's sudden military disengagement from the Syrian civil war.
"We want Iran and Hezbollah not to emerge strengthened from this entire process," Rivlin told reporters during the flight to Russia on Tuesday. "Everybody agrees that the Islamic State organization is a danger to the entire world, but Shiite Iranian fundamentalist Islam is for us just as dangerous."
A senior Israeli official said on Tuesday that while Israel understands Russia's interests in the region, it had yet to fully account for Putin's surprise partial pullout from Syria.
Israel has also been anxiously watching reports that Moscow is about to deliver sophisticated S-300 missile defense batteries to Tehran.
During Rivlin's two-day trip to Russia, which coincides with the 25th anniversary of the restoration of diplomatic ties between the two countries, the president will also meet with the local Jewish community and visit Russian and Jewish cultural sites.
On Golan Heights, IDF fights to keep Israel safe and out of Syria - By Judah Ari Gross - http://www.timesofisrael.com/on-golan-heights-idf-fights-to-keep-israel-safe-and-out-of-syria/
Syrian rebels, Hezbollah, IS and other extremist terror groups threaten the tense quiet on the northern border, senior officer says
The relative quiet on Israel's border with Syria can be shattered by Hezbollah, the Islamic State or another fringe jihadist group seeking to make a statement about its dedication to the fight against Israel, a senior IDF official warned on Monday.
For almost 40 years the Israeli-Syrian border was one of the country's quietest, with a United Nations presence, in the form of UNDOF soldiers, helping to keep the peace.
But in the five years since the outbreak of the bloody Syrian civil war, which according to some estimates has claimed the lives of nearly half a million people, that border has become a powder-keg.
Intentional and inadvertent attacks by the larger rebel groups, as well as the potential for small terror cells to take advantage of the lawlessness and mayhem in Syria to carry out attacks against the Jewish state, threaten to plunge Israel's northern border into a conflict no one would want.
The larger groups - the al-Nusra Front and the Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade - which control the areas surrounding the Syrian border, have little incentive to attack Israel at this stage, the officer from the IDF's Northern Command said.
The more immediate threat comes from jihadi organizations that are less interested in capturing territory, and more interested in either anti-Israel ideology or a desire to please Iran by carrying out attacks against the Jewish state, the officer said.
Hezbollah, for instance, has a small presence in the Assad-controlled city of Hader, but has much less infrastructure there than it does in Lebanon. That makes it a prime base of operations, as there's less for the IDF to destroy in retaliation for an attack.
"It's kind of a no-man's land, so you can [carry out attacks] without having strong actions taken against you. That will keep up their story that they're still fighting the IDF and still fighting Israel, but without very harsh consequences," the officer said.
To stay out of that morass, but still stay safe, Israel must strike a balance between keeping its cool in the face of accidental spillover, while maintaining its vigilance against deliberate attacks, the senior IDF official said.
Our neighbors to the north
Al-Nusra has captured the northern parts of the border with Israel, while the Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade controls an area surrounding the southern portions of the border.
The two have been preoccupied fighting each other for dominance, in addition to their struggle against the Assad regime, putting Israel relatively low on their priority list, analysts have said.
The precise number of fighters in these rebel groups is difficult to ascertain, as these organizations frequently both join forces and fall apart. But according to most estimates, the Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade has several hundred to one thousand members, while al-Nusra has several thousand fighters.
"Now the strongest organization, which has a few tanks and some light machinery, is al-Nusra. But we don't see al-Nusra starting a fight against Israel. They know better than we do, how strong we are and how hard we can hit them," he said.
But al-Nusra is known to have ties with the al-Qaeda terrorist organization, and in a bid to remind its benefactors of its devotion to the destruction of Israel, their fighters could carry out a surprise attack against troops or civilians, the officer said.
The Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade, meanwhile, has reportedly aligned itself with the Islamic State, which makes it one of the primary threats to Israel on the Syrian border, according to the IDF.
"They have an ISIS ideology, even if they're not getting orders from ISIS. We consider them the most extreme Islamic group on the border, even though they are not pursuing actions against Israel today," the officer said.
Just a matter of a decision
Looking out across the Golan Heights orchards on the cloudy, blustery day, past the border fence and into Syria, the senior Northern Command official pointed out just how close the pastoral Israeli countryside is to the brutal violence that has rocked the Syrian people for five years - and how easy it would be for Israel to be dragged into the conflict.
"In Qahtaniya, just over the border line behind Quneitra, ISIS used a car bomb against some Nusra rebels," the officer said, referring to a late 2015 attack by the Islamic State.
This month in the village of al-Ashe, farther south in the Quneitra Province, a car bomb also reportedly killed 18 al-Nusra members, though no group has officially taken responsibility from the attack, according to Al-Jazeera.
"The decision to bring that car bomb from deeper in Syria and use it against local rebels or to explode it on our border crossing - it's just a matter of decision. We can't exclude that possibility," the IDF officer said.
"But if you ask me where I prefer to face the enemy, it's on the border. I'm a lot more prepared to do that here than in Tel Aviv. You don't see all the tanks and the missiles and the drones- but they're here," he said, referring to the thick morning fog that impaired our visibility.
"And if they need to operate across the border, they'll do that," he added.
There have already been some deliberate attacks against Israeli forces and civilians, mostly in the form of light gunfire at IDF jeeps, in addition to the occasional errant mortar or missile fire on the Golan Heights.
In July 2014, a 15-year-old Israeli teenager was killed when the car he was traveling in was struck by an anti-tank missile, in what the IDF described at the time as an "intentional attack."
But occasional sniper fire or RPG is only the tip of the iceberg of possible terrorist attacks from Syria. Car bombs, kidnappings and large improvised explosive devices have all been identified as potential forms of attack that could be carried out against Israel, the IDF has said.
"[Terrorists] can drive a car up to the border and decide if they want to fire a rocket at an Israeli target or cut the fence, come in and try to kidnap a local farmer," the officer said.
"That's why we keep good intelligence and good control, to be prepared for that scenario," he added.
Lighting the powder-keg with errant fire
The threat from Syria is not only intentional attacks, but also spillover from both the rebel infighting and the battles against Assad's forces, which has the potential to escalate the current tense quiet into conflict.
While Israel does not want to be dragged into the chaos of the Syrian civil war, the IDF cannot abide breaches of Israeli sovereignty in the form of errant mortar fire or other spillover from the fighting in the Quneitra Province.
"Just a year and a half ago, a rocket hit a winery and spilled like 10,000 liters of wine in the kibbutz here," the officer said.
An Israeli man was injured by shrapnel in that August 27, 2014 incident, but only lightly.
"We didn't retaliate because we understand that it's a complicated situation and we don't want to start a fire exchange because of something that's happening inside Syria," the officer said.
But Israel does have its limits. An intentional attack or a particularly extreme case of errant fire will warrant an Israeli response, the officer said.
"If someone gets hurt or they hit an Israeli village and we see the tank that did it, we'll destroy it," he said.
"We've done it in the past and we're upholding our right to do that."
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